Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees, stable domestic downstream demand, and the need to monitor US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis changes [1]. - Zinc prices may also have short - term wide - range fluctuations. With the expected improvement in concentrate supply and potential recovery of smelting supply, the previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation, and factors like US tariff negotiations and exchange rates need to be watched [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term. Although the demand for electrolytic aluminum is weakening, the better - than - expected result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation has a positive impact [1]. - Nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend in the short term, as there are both positive and negative factors in the nickel market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with high growth in power investment driven by the power grid, continuous growth in household appliance production, and potential for increased copper demand in the automotive sector due to higher new - energy penetration. The narrowing decline in real - estate data is also a factor. Short - term copper price fluctuations are affected by US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price data is unavailable. The domestic basis is 380 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 9,577 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is 39.74 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 184,650 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 925 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, household appliances are performing well, and the decline in real - estate data is narrowing. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation. Short - term zinc price fluctuations are influenced by US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, and smelting output [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 195 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,725 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 22.38 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 165,175 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 1,875 tons [2]. Aluminum - The night - session main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.07%. The Sino - US tariff negotiation result is better than expected, which is beneficial to non - ferrous demand and prices. Fundamentally, the future supply - demand of alumina is expected to be loose, but some manufacturers have low profits and are undergoing maintenance. Further decline in futures prices requires a continued weakening of bauxite prices and the resumption of production by alumina manufacturers. The operating rate of most aluminum - processing sectors has declined slightly, and there is an expectation of reduced downstream orders. However, due to the better - than - expected tariff negotiation result, Shanghai aluminum is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,290 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 60 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,489 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 0.39 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 397,275 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 2,025 tons [2]. Nickel - The night - session main contract of Shanghai nickel closed up 0.16%. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is still tight, leading to rising nickel ore prices and cost transfer to downstream enterprises. The new Indonesian tariff policy may increase local nickel product prices. Precursor manufacturers have sufficient raw - material inventory and low purchasing enthusiasm, and nickel - salt enterprises have a production - reduction expectation, which may lead to a moderate increase in nickel - salt prices. Stainless - steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly oscillating. In the short term, nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 124,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 2,160 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 15,799 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 191.87 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 199,146 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 714 tons [2]. Lead - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 16,905 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 160 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,005 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 4.83 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 250,675 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 400 tons [2]. Tin - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 264,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 750 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 32,974 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 127.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 2,745 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 30 tons [2].

| | 20250514申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： | | | 摘要 | 铝： 短期内或以震荡偏强为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强为主。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升有望巩固 汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈 | 幅波动 | | | 判进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良好，地产数据降幅缩窄。市 | | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复，前期锌价的回落已部分 | 可能短期宽 | | | 消化产量增长预期。短 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 14 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜铝突破上行 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜铜价增仓上行，主力期价突破 7.8 万关口，日内维持强势运 行，午后再度增仓上行，逼近 7.9 万关口。近期铜价上行很大程度上 受益于中美关系缓和。产业低库存格局下，内外宏观氛围回暖，预 计铜价维持强势运行，上方关注 7.9-8 万关口压力。 沪铝 昨夜铝价增仓上行，突破 2 万关口，日内维持强势上行，但持仓 量持续下降。近期铝价上行很大程度上受益于中美关系缓和。低库存 格局下，宏观氛围回暖推动铝价反弹。短期期价突 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices showed a strong and volatile trend, with the main contract closing above the 78,000 yuan mark. The recent upward movement of copper prices is largely due to the easing of Sino - US relations. Although the rebound of the overseas US dollar index and the decline of gold prices at high levels put some pressure on copper prices, in the context of low industrial inventories and a warming macro - environment, copper prices are expected to rise in a volatile manner [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated around the 20,000 yuan mark. The recent increase in aluminum prices is also largely due to the easing of Sino - US relations. In a low - inventory situation, the warming macro - environment has pushed up aluminum prices. However, the short - term price rebound to the 20,000 - yuan mark faces technical pressure, and upstream electrolytic aluminum plants have a strong hedging intention due to high profits. Continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 20,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices showed a weak and volatile trend, with continuous increase in positions. After a short - term rebound to the high in April, nickel prices fell back. The market's increasing expectation of the Philippine ore - ban policy has largely driven the nickel price to bottom out and rebound, while the long - term oversupply of nickel elements suppresses the nickel price. It is expected that the futures price will tend to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the support at last week's low [6]. Industry Dynamics Summary - **Copper**: On May 12, the social inventory of electrolytic copper by Mysteel was 124,900 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons compared to the 6th [8]. - **Nickel**: On May 12, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2506 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,750 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +300 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,850 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,700 yuan/ton, with a price of 126,250 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,650 yuan/ton [9]. Related Charts Summary Copper - **Copper Basis**: The chart shows the relationship between the basis and the spot tax - inclusive average price of 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai [10]. - **Copper Monthly Spread**: The chart shows the monthly spread of SHFE copper and the main continuous contract [15]. - **Domestic Visible Inventory of Electrolytic Copper**: It includes social inventory and bonded - area inventory [12]. - **Overseas Copper Exchange Inventory**: Relevant inventory data from overseas exchanges [17]. - **LME Copper Cancellation Ratio**: The chart shows the cancellation ratio of LME copper and inventory [13]. - **SHFE Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: The chart shows the SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [18]. Aluminum - **Aluminum Basis**: The chart shows the relationship between the average price of aluminum premium and discount in the Yangtze River spot market and the futures closing price of aluminum [22]. - **Domestic Social Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum**: The chart shows the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum [24]. - **Aluminum Oxide Trend**: The chart shows the futures closing price and the national average price of aluminum oxide [26]. - **Aluminum Monthly Spread**: The chart shows the monthly spread of aluminum futures [28]. - **Overseas Exchange Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum**: It includes LME and COMEX inventories [33]. - **Aluminum Oxide Inventory**: The chart shows the total inventory and port inventory of aluminum oxide [31]. Nickel - **Nickel Basis**: The chart shows the relationship between the basis and the spot tax - inclusive average price of 1 electrolytic nickel in Shanghai [34]. - **LME Inventory**: The chart shows the LME nickel inventory and cancellation ratio [36]. - **LME Nickel Trend**: The chart shows the LME nickel 3M electronic - trading price and the LME nickel 0 - 3 spread [38]. - **Nickel Monthly Spread**: The chart shows the monthly spread of SHFE nickel [40]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The chart shows the SHFE nickel inventory and warehouse receipt inventory [42]. - **Nickel Ore Port Inventory**: The chart shows the nickel ore port inventory [44].

品种 国内前日期货 收盘价 （元/吨） 国内基差 （元/吨） 前日LME3月 期收盘价 (美元/吨） LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） （美元/吨） LME库存 （吨） LME库存日 度变化 （吨） 铜 78,590 -30 9,420 23.87 190,750 -1,025 铝 19,945 0 2,383 -5.34 401,525 -2,025 锌 22,725 415 2,617 -27.37 169,850 -475 镍 125,920 -2,730 15,548 -198.42 197,754 84 铅 16,955 -190 1,958 5.95 251,800 -1,625 锡 263,050 -1,130 31,636 15.00 2,790 85 数据来源：Wind，申银万国期货研究所 数据来源：Wind，申银万国期货研究所 国 内 市 场 基 差 L M E 现 货 升 贴 水 铜 铝 锌 镍 铅 锡 基差 -30 0 415 -2,730 -190 -1,130 -30 0 415 -2,730 -190 -1,130 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight LME copper rose and then fell. US budget surplus and tariff revenue data eased deficit pressure, and China - US trade negotiations made better - than - expected progress, with 91% of additional tariffs cancelled and 24% of counter - tariffs suspended. LME copper inventory decreased by 1025 tons to 190750 tons. Domestic demand orders are currently stable but may slow down as the peak season turns to the off - season. The positive outcome of the trade negotiations is expected to boost risk appetite and support copper prices in the short term. Copper prices are expected to reach the 78000 - 80000 yuan/ton range, but investors should pay attention to downstream acceptance at high prices and potential price fluctuations based on fundamentals and inventory [1]. Aluminum - Alumina trended strongly with AO2509 closing at 2832 yuan/ton, up 0.6%, and open interest increasing by 16955 lots to 289600 lots. Shanghai aluminum also trended strongly with AL2506 closing at 19935 yuan/ton, up 0.91%, and open interest decreasing by 2103 lots to 166000 lots. There were new maintenance activities in Shanxi and Guangxi alumina. The主力 contract switched to the 09 contract, and the market is trading on the expectation of ore production restrictions in Guinea's rainy season. Aluminum ingot arrivals were low, and downstream restocking after price cuts led to a continuous slight reduction in inventory. With the easing of China - US tariff tensions and improved macro - sentiment, the short - term strong and long - term weak pattern of aluminum prices continues. Attention should be paid to inventory - consumption ratios and future tariff negotiations [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight LME nickel fell 1.89% to 15550 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 1.26% to 124180 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 84 tons to 197754 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 204 tons to 23222 tons. Nickel ore prices remained strong, with premiums rising in the Philippines and Indonesia. The center of nickel - iron transaction prices moved down to 940 yuan/nickel point. There was a slight reduction in 300 - series stainless steel production, but demand - side inventory increased. In the new energy sector, raw material supply recovered, MHP prices declined, and the immediate profit of nickel sulfate slightly improved, but the demand for ternary precursors in May decreased slightly. In the short term, the macro - sentiment has improved, and the Philippine nickel ore event has attracted market attention, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish. However, with the continuous weakening of nickel - iron prices and potential domestic primary nickel inventory accumulation, nickel prices will likely remain volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Monitoring Copper - On May 12, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 78260 yuan/ton with a premium of - 30 yuan/ton, and the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was 72300 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1025 tons, and SHFE total inventory decreased by 8602 tons. The active - contract import loss decreased by 370 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16880 yuan/ton on May 12, 2025, up 140 yuan/ton from May 9. LME lead inventory decreased by 1625 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 2718 tons [3]. Aluminum - On May 12, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price was 19810 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai price was 19760 yuan/ton. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2025 tons, and SHFE total inventory decreased by 6192 tons. The inventory of alumina decreased by 0.8 million tons [4]. Nickel - On May 12, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 128225 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 84 tons, and SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 867 tons [4]. Zinc - The main - contract settlement price on May 12, 2025, was 22325 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from May 9. LME zinc inventory decreased by 475 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons. Social inventory decreased by 0.05 million tons [5]. Tin - The main - contract settlement price on May 12, 2025, was 261110 yuan/ton, up 0.1% from May 9. LME tin inventory increased by 85 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 190 tons [5]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including those on spot premium, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits for various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, covering data from 2019 - 2025 [7][14][21][28][34][41]. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals research team at Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research and a senior precious metals researcher; Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum and silicon research; and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium and nickel research [48][49].

跨期套利跟踪 2025/05/12 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -440 -980 -1430 -1770 理论价差 491 881 1279 1678 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -375 -630 -775 -850 理论价差 216 338 459 581 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -65 -150 -205 -205 理论价差 209 320 430 540 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 60 50 40 60 理论价差 209 313 418 523 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 -90 10 250 510 锡 5-1 价差 490 理论价差 5366 期现套利跟踪 2025/05/12 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -295 -735 理论价差 109 478 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -225 -600 理论价差 5 137 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及 ...

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年5月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：区间窄幅震荡 强弱分析：中性 价格区间：254000-273000元/吨 锡进口盈亏小幅收窄 最新社会库存小幅累库 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 01-26 02-10 02-24 03-07 03-18 03-29 04-11 04-22 05-06 05-19 06-02 06-14 06-28 07-09 07-21 07-31 08-12 08-23 09-03 09-15 09-25 10-14 10-25 11-05 11-17 11-27 12-09 12-20 12-31 吨 SMM社会库存 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -60000 -50000 -40000 -30000 -20000 ...

| | 20250509申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | | | | | 铝： 短期内或以震荡偏弱为主。 | | | | 镍： 可能短期区间波动运行 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资 高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升有望巩固 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈 | 幅波动 | | | 判进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良好，地产数据降幅缩窄。市 | | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复，前期锌价的回落已部分 | 可能短期宽 | | | 消化产量增长预期。短期锌 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Copper prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term, influenced by factors such as US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis [1]. - Zinc prices might also have wide - range short - term fluctuations, with attention on US tariff talks, exchange rates, and smelting output [1]. - Aluminum prices are likely to be weak and fluctuate in the short term, affected by Trump's tariff attitude, domestic monetary policy, alumina prices, and downstream demand [1]. - Nickel prices may operate within a range in the short term due to the combination of tight nickel ore supply, tariff policies, and different demand performances in various sectors [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices slightly declined. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices challenge smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with power investment driven by the power grid growing significantly, and home appliance production continuing to increase. The penetration of new energy is expected to strengthen copper demand in the automotive sector, and the decline in real - estate data has narrowed [1]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 78,160 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 220 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,538 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 21.65 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 193,975 tons, and the daily change was - 1,650 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices slightly rose. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is steadily increasing, home appliances are performing well, and the decline in real - estate data has narrowed. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year, and smelting supply may recover. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the expected increase in production [1]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,675 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 485 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,633 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 36.93 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 171,400 tons, and the daily change was - 1,525 tons [2]. Aluminum - The night - session Shanghai aluminum main contract fell 1.55%. Trump's tariff attitude has been inconsistent, and domestic monetary policy is becoming more relaxed. Alumina prices have declined again, and future supply and demand are expected to be loose. Currently, some manufacturers have low profits and are undergoing maintenance. For futures to decline further, a continued weakening of bauxite prices and the resumption of production by alumina manufacturers are needed. The operating rates of most aluminum processing sectors, except for aluminum cables, have slightly declined recently, and there is an expectation of a decrease in downstream orders. After the holiday, with the concentrated arrival of aluminum ingots, domestic social inventory may continue to increase [1]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 19,580 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 10 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,427 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 28.01 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 407,575 tons, and the daily change was - 4,000 tons [2]. Nickel - The night - session Shanghai nickel main contract fell 0.35%. Nickel ore supply in Indonesia remains tight, leading to rising nickel ore prices, which are passed on to downstream enterprises. Indonesia's new tariff policy may increase local nickel product prices. Precursor manufacturers have concentrated procurement needs, and the inventory of nickel salt products is not high, with prices likely to rise moderately. Stainless steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly fluctuating and consolidating [1]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 124,240 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,580 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,698 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 201.50 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 199,782 tons, and the daily change was - 300 tons [2]. Lead - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,650 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 275 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,923 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 16.08 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 256,700 tons, and the daily change was - 4,800 tons [2]. Tin - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 261,220 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 1,690 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 31,992 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 165.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 2,755 tons, and the daily change was 55 tons [2].