研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 01 月 06 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 826.0 | 814.5 | 11.5 | I01-I05 | 25.0 | 17.5 | 7.5 | | DCE05 | 801.0 | 797.0 | 4.0 | I05-I09 | 21.0 | 22.0 | -1.0 | | DCE09 | 780.0 | 775.0 | 5.0 | I09-I01 | -46.0 | -39.5 | -6.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 802 | 798 | 4 | 871 | 49 | 66 | 88 | | 纽曼粉 | 804 | 800 | 4 | 879 | 57 | 74 | 96 | | 麦克粉 | 808 | 804 | 4 | 892 | 70 | 87 | 109 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel market is in a state of cautious wait - and - see, with steel prices oscillating. Building materials are in a state of low production, consumption, and inventory, while plates are constrained by high inventory. After the New Year's Day, the winter storage market for building materials and potential steel mill restarts for plates should be monitored [1]. - The iron ore market shows a significant decline in global shipments. The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and the inventory is increasing. Although the short - term price is in high - level oscillation, it faces downward risk once negotiations are finalized [3]. - The coking coal and coke market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, with a weakening oscillation trend. After the New Year's Day, the demand for coke may improve with steel mill restarts, while coking coal prices may remain weak before winter storage and could be further adjusted after [5][6]. - The thermal coal market sees a recovery in production area supply, and the coal price is stabilizing in the short term. In the long - term, the supply is still abundant, and non - power coal consumption and restocking should be watched [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The steel futures main contract declined slightly yesterday, and the spot prices generally fell, with rebar down 10 - 20 yuan/ton and hot - rolled coil down 20 - 30 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and demand logic: Building materials have a stable supply - demand situation with limited price fluctuations. After New Year's Day, the winter storage market will intensify the game between reality and expectation. Plates are restricted by high inventory, and the short - term inventory pressure is difficult to resolve due to potential mill restarts [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties increased slightly, but steel mills' procurement intention was low. Global iron ore shipments dropped significantly, with a 12.6% MoM decrease to 3214 million tons, while the 45 - port arrivals increased by 6% MoM to 2756 million tons [3]. - Supply and demand logic: The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and inventory is increasing. The market gives a high valuation to iron ore prices, but there is a downward risk once negotiations are settled. In the short term, the price will remain high - level oscillating [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main coking coal and coke futures contracts declined yesterday. The coking profit improved, and the demand from steel mills' blast furnaces increased slightly after New Year's Day. Coal mine production resumed, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume recovered rapidly, with the Mongolian 5 raw coal price at around 960 - 980 yuan/ton [5][6]. - Supply and demand logic: The demand for coke may improve after New Year's Day, and it will remain oscillating in the short term. Coking coal supply and demand are relatively loose, and its price will remain weakly oscillating before winter storage and could be adjusted further after [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillation; Coke: Oscillation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [7] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production areas, coal prices fluctuated, and the group's purchased - in price and port price stabilized and rebounded. In the ports, the inventory decreased, driving a short - term price increase. The import market was inactive, with limited actual transactions [8]. - Supply and demand logic: The daily consumption of thermal coal is still low, and the coal price is oscillating with the recovery of production area supply. In the long - term, the supply is abundant [8]. Strategy - Not provided in the content

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][7][8] Core Views Steel - Yesterday, steel prices remained weak, with coking coal and coke on the raw material side being weak and iron ore being slightly strong. Steel continued to reduce production and destock. Rebar maintained a large supply - demand gap and good destocking, while hot - rolled coil destocking was still slow. Apparent demand declined seasonally, and demand was weak. The weak demand expectation in 2026 restricted the upward price elasticity, but current production cuts supported steel prices. The rebar price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 3200, and the hot - rolled coil price in the range of 3150 - 3350. Pay attention to the support levels of rebar at 3000 and hot - rolled coil at 3150 [1] Iron Ore - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract opened higher and then maintained a high - level shock. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this period, and the mine's fiscal year impulse ended. Future focus is on the weather in the Southern Hemisphere. On the demand side, the pig iron output remained flat, at a historically low level. Some steel mills resumed production, but many were still under annual overhauls. The steel mill profitability improved, but overall it was the off - season for demand, with high finished product inventory and many overhauls, so the subsequent resumption of production is expected to be limited. Iron ore inventory is at a high level in the same period, and it will continue to accumulate. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate strongly. Consider short - term long positions, with the price range of 770 - 840 [3] Coke - Yesterday, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend. After the 4th round of price cuts in the spot market, there is still an expectation of further cuts. On the supply side, coke price adjustments lag behind those of coking coal, squeezing coking profits and reducing production. On the demand side, steel mills' losses increased, leading to more overhauls, a decline in pig iron output, and an intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased inventory, and the overall inventory increased slightly from the middle level. The coke supply - demand situation weakened. It is recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7] Coking Coal - Yesterday, coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. The spot auction price in Shanxi was weak, and the Mongolian coal quotation fluctuated downward. The supply side saw a slight increase in daily coal mine output after the new year, but poor sales led to inventory accumulation. Imported coal at the port continued to accumulate, and the Mongolian coal quotation fluctuated downward. On the demand side, steel mill losses and overhauls decreased slightly, pig iron output was stable with a slight increase, coking profits declined, and production decreased slightly. The market's demand for inventory replenishment weakened. All sectors' inventories increased, and the overall inventory increased slightly from the middle level. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7] Ferrosilicon - Yesterday, the main ferrosilicon contract fluctuated downward. The supply side saw a halt in the decline of ferrosilicon production, with production cuts mainly in Shaanxi and Gansu, and a slight increase in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai. In terms of steelmaking demand, pig iron output was basically flat, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term. Non - steel demand from metal magnesium had some support, but the export profit weakened. The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been alleviated, and the production cut expectation has been priced in. The future demand improvement expectation is insufficient, and prices lack upward momentum. Pay attention to the policy changes and raw material prices. It is expected that the price will fluctuate, with the range of 5700 - 6000 [8] Ferromanganese - Yesterday, ferromanganese fluctuated. The supply side had a slight increase in production last week, and there is still room for short - term production growth. In terms of demand, pig iron output increased slightly, and steelmaking demand was stable. Steel mills had a strong price - pressing sentiment in tenders. In terms of inventory, the steel mill inventory remained high. The manganese ore price was stable, and some mines' January outer - market quotes increased. Ferromanganese is in a state of slight over - supply but generally balanced. Manganese ore supports the price. It is expected that the price will fluctuate, with the key being the production cut amplitude and the end - of - year raw material replenishment by steel mills. Consider range - bound operations, with the range of 5500 - 5800 [8] Summary by Section Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot prices in East and North China decreased by 20 and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton, and the slab price at 3730 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled coil and rebar in different regions had different changes, with most showing an increase of 3 yuan [1] Production - The daily average pig iron output remained at 226.5 tons. The output of five major steel products increased by 18.4 tons to 815.2 tons, with rebar output increasing by 3.8 tons to 188.2 tons and hot - rolled coil output increasing by 11.0 tons to 304.5 tons [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 25.8 tons to 1232.2 tons, rebar inventory decreased by 12.2 tons to 422.0 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 6.3 tons to 371.0 tons [1] Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.4 to 8.7, a decline of 4.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.4 tons to 841.0 tons, the rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.2 tons to 202.7 tons, and the hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 3.7 tons to 310.8 tons [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders mostly increased, and the basis of the 05 - contract for different powders had different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0 to 22.0, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.0 to 17.5 [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 155.0 tons to 2756.4 tons, the global shipment volume decreased by 463.4 tons to 3213.7 tons, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 74.7 tons to 11054.0 tons [3] Demand - The 247 - steel mill daily average pig iron output remained at 226.6 tons, the 45 - port daily average dispatching volume increased by 1.6 tons to 315.1 tons, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 320.6 tons to 6234.3 tons, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 212.6 tons to 6987.1 tons [3] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 41.8 tons to 15970.89 tons, the 247 - steel mill imported ore inventory increased by 136.2 tons to 8860.2 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 to 19.0 days [3] Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 01 and 05 contracts decreased by 56 and 45 respectively, with a decline of 3.7% and 2.6% respectively [7] Supply - The daily average output of full - sample coking plants and 247 - steel mill coking remained unchanged at 62.7 and 46.8 tons respectively [7] Demand - The 247 - steel mill pig iron output remained at 226.6 tons [7] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 3.0 tons to 915.7 tons, with the full - sample coking plant inventory decreasing by 0.6 tons to 91.6 tons, the 247 - steel mill inventory increasing by 1.8 tons to 644.0 tons, and the port inventory increasing by 1.9 tons to 180.1 tons [7] Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal remained unchanged, and the Mongolian No. 5 raw coal price decreased by 16, a decline of 1.4%. The coking coal 01 and 05 contracts decreased by 16 and 35 respectively, with a decline of 1.5% and 3.14% respectively [7] Supply - The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons [7] Demand - The steel mill loss and overhaul decreased, pig iron output was stable with a slight increase, coking profit declined, and production decreased slightly [7] Inventory - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory increased by 13.6 tons to 148.5 tons, the full - sample coking plant coking coal inventory increased by 12.8 tons to 1052.5 tons, and the 247 - steel mill coking coal inventory decreased by 4.5 tons to 802.3 tons [7] Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - The main ferrosilicon contract decreased by 48 to 5624, a decline of 0.8%. The spot prices of ferrosilicon in different regions mostly decreased [8] Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased slightly by 0.1, and the production profit decreased by 6.7 [8] Supply - The ferrosilicon production increased by 0.0 tons to 9.9 tons, and the production enterprise's operating rate remained at 29.5% [8] Demand - The 247 - steel mill daily average pig iron output increased by 0.8 tons to 227.4 tons, and the ferrosilicon demand increased slightly [8] Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises increased by 0.1 tons to 6.4 tons [8] Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The main ferromanganese contract decreased by 46 to 5874, a decline of 0.8%. The spot prices of ferromanganese in different regions had different changes [8] Cost and Profit - The manganese ore price remained stable, and some mines' January outer - market quotes increased [8] Supply - The ferromanganese production increased slightly last week, and the operating rate increased by 0.1% to 36.9% [8] Demand - The 247 - steel mill daily average pig iron output increased by 0.8 tons to 227.4 tons, and the ferromanganese demand increased slightly [8] Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 0.8 tons to 39.4 tons [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience high - level oscillations. Its short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory with a slight upward bias. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the upward driving force is not strong [2]. - The iron ore market is in a state where the supply - demand sides have changed. Although the demand has increased to some extent and the supply has decreased, the fundamentals remain weak, and the subsequent trend will maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking situation [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory with a slight upward bias. The overall view is high - level oscillation, and the core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weak and the upward driving force is not strong [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. Steel mills have started to resume production, and the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded from a low level, but the improvement in profitability is limited, and the off - season steel market cannot support a large - scale increase in production, so the rebound space of ore demand is limited. At the same time, the arrival at domestic ports has increased again, but after the year - end rush, the miners' shipments have dropped significantly, and the domestic ore supply is also seasonally shrinking, so the ore supply has dropped from a high level. Currently, due to steel mills' restocking and structural contradictions in the spot market, the ore price remains at a high level, but the supply is relatively high while the demand improvement is limited, so the fundamentals are weak and the upward driving force is not strong [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market sentiment has significantly declined, and the prices of finished steel products continue to fluctuate within the bottom range. The steel prices are expected to continue operating within the bottom range, and the winter storage is unlikely to form a concentrated replenishment market. Attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policies and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2] - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply of iron ore has decreased in the short term, the demand has slightly recovered, and the port inventory is at a high level. Attention should be paid to overseas emergencies [5] - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced [9][10] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Its fundamentals are weak, and it mainly relies on silicon enterprises' production cuts to support prices. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13][14] - The price of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate. The demand is weak, the supply is still loose, and the inventory accumulation pressure exists. Attention should be paid to the implementation of enterprises' quota sales and the terminal demand feedback [16] - The price of glass may rise slightly, but the market lacks substantial demand and policy support. The price upward space is estimated to be between 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [19] - The price of soda ash is expected to decline. The supply is in excess, and it is recommended to short at a high price in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [21][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3104 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.57%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3248 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.67%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Views - The fundamentals of rebar show a slight increase in production, a decline in apparent demand, and continuous inventory reduction. For hot - rolled coils, production has increased significantly, apparent demand has strengthened slightly, and inventory has continued to decline [2] - The overall market is in a narrow - range shock, the terminal demand recovery is slow, and the hot - rolled coil inventory is under pressure. The steel price is expected to continue operating in the bottom range [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 797.00 yuan/ton, up 0.95% (+7.50). The position increased by 25428 hands to 61.88 million hands. The weighted position was 94.83 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 806 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.59 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.96% [4] Strategy Views - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines has ended, and the overseas iron ore shipping volume has decreased. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil has declined, and the shipping from non - mainstream countries has also decreased. The near - end arrival volume has increased [5] - Demand: The daily average molten iron output has slightly increased, some blast furnaces have resumed production, and the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved [5] - Inventory: The port inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching a high level in the same period. The steel mill's imported ore inventory has increased but is still at a low level in the past five years [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On January 5, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.78% at 5866 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5730 yuan/ton, with a premium of 46 yuan/ton over the futures [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.85% at 5624 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 126 yuan/ton over the futures [8] Strategy Views - Macro: After a series of important macro - events, the market has shown a positive trend, but attention should be paid to the short - term impact of the "leading" products on the market sentiment [9] - Fundamentals: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most factors have been reflected in the price. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement [10] - Key factors: The market direction of the black sector and cost - push factors of manganese ore and supply - contraction factors of ferrosilicon are the main contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8730 yuan/ton, down 1.47% (-130). The weighted contract position decreased by 3538 hands to 342532 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with basis of 470 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton respectively [12] - The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 58645 yuan/ton, up 1.25% (+725). The weighted contract position decreased by 6544 hands to 129961 hands. The spot prices of N - type silicon increased, with a basis of - 5395 yuan/ton [15] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The production in December was stable, the demand in January is weak, and it may continue to accumulate inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13][14] - Polysilicon: The downstream production in January has continued to decline, the supply is still loose, and there is inventory accumulation pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of quota sales and terminal demand feedback [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1081 yuan/ton on Monday, down 0.55% (-6). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 3.00%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 413 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 848 short positions [18] - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1177 yuan/ton on Monday, down 2.65% (-32). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 3.00%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 1719 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 1109 short positions [20] Strategy Views - Glass: In December, the supply decreased, the demand declined in winter, and the market lacked substantial support. The price may rise slightly, with the upward space around 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [19] - Soda Ash: In December, the domestic market was narrowly sorted, the supply was in excess, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. It is recommended to short at a high price in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [21][22]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoint - No clear core viewpoint is presented in the given content; it mainly provides price data of various iron ore varieties and futures contracts. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - **Australian mainstream ores**: Newman powder is priced at 798, down 7 from the previous day and up 4 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 854.2; PB powder is at 806, down 2 and up 9; Mac powder is at 808, down 2 and up 13; Jinbuba powder is at 759, down 2 and up 9; Mixed powder is at 742, up 2 and up 2; Super special powder is at 684, up 4 and up 9; Carajás powder is at 895, up 10 and up 20 [1]. - **Brazilian mainstream ores**: Brazilian mixed ore is at 852, down 6 and up 19; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is at 770, down 2 and up 9; Brazilian coarse SSFG is at 775, down 2 and up 9 [1]. - **Other ores**: Ukrainian concentrate powder is at 884, up 6 and up 11; 61% Indian powder is at 748, down 2 and up 9; Karara concentrate powder is at 885, up 3 and up 7; Roy Hill powder is at 793, down 2 and up 9; KUMBA powder is at 865, down 2 and up 9; 57% Indian powder is at 619, up 4 and up 9; Atlas powder is at 737, up 2 and up 2; Tangshan iron concentrate powder is at 976, down 6 and down 6 [1]. Futures Market - **DCE contracts**: i2601 is at 814.5, up 9.5 from the previous day and up 13 for the week, with a monthly spread of -39.5; i2605 is at 797.0, up 7.5 and up 14, with a spread of 17.5; i2609 is at 775.0, up 6.5 and up 14, with a spread of 22.0 [1]. - **SGX contracts**: FE01 is at 105.55, up 0.20 and up 0.88, with a spread of -3.24; FE05 is at 104.26, up 0.24 and up 1.24, with a spread of 1.29; FE09 is at 102.31, up 0.26 and up 1.29, with a spread of 1.95 [1]. Other Data - **Import profit**: Newman powder's import profit is 14.42; Mac powder's is 49.11; Jinbuba powder's is 44.36; Mixed powder's is 5.63; Super special powder's is 1.34; Carajás powder's is -14.77; Brazilian mixed ore's is 14.89; Roy Hill powder's is 56.49 [1]. - **Premium data**: Information about U - ball/pellet premium and PB block/lump ore premium is presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical data is incomplete [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].

研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 01 月 05 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 814.5 | 805.0 | 9.5 | I01-I05 | 17.5 | 15.5 | 2.0 | | DCE05 | 797.0 | 789.5 | 7.5 | I05-I09 | 22.0 | 21.0 | 1.0 | | DCE09 | 775.0 | 768.5 | 6.5 | I09-I01 | -39.5 | -36.5 | -3.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 798 | 798 | 0 | 867 | 54 | 69 | 90 | | 纽曼粉 | 800 | 800 | 0 | 875 | 62 | 77 | 98 | | 麦克粉 | 804 | 803 | 1 | 888 | 75 | 90 | 111 | | 金布 ...

对能源转型和传统用途都至关重要的铜在2025年飙升42%，创下自2009年以来的最佳年度表现。对美国 潜在进口关税的担忧，已导致美国交易所追踪的库存增加。与此同时，伦敦金属交易所的现货对三个月 期铜价差(cash-to-three-month spread)稳固处于现货溢价(backwardation)状态，这种形态表明近期供应紧 张。 分析师在一份报告中写道，"整体供应短缺，叠加美国关税造成的区域性错配，正在推动铜价上 涨，""全球铜市场在2026年将出现超过10万吨的短缺"。 智通财经获悉，铜价在新年供应趋紧的担忧以及整体市场风险偏好情绪的推动下大幅上涨，逼近历史最 高水平。 伦敦基准铜期货价格大涨约3%，接近上周创下的每吨略低于13,000美元的峰值。对美国潜在关税的担 忧促使交易商加速向该国发货，导致其他地区供应状况趋紧。此外，智利曼托韦德(Mantoverde)矿场罢 工的开始，提醒了在全球需求扩张时期供应所面临的风险。 周一所有基本金属均走强，亚洲股市在科技股上涨的推动下创下历史新高。更广泛来看，投资者正在评 估美国周末拘捕委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗事件的更广泛影响，包括美国对事关安全和经济增 ...

Demand - From January to November, national fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a widening decline of 0.9 percentage points compared to January to October. Real estate development investment fell by 15.9%, a decline that expanded by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous period. Infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1%, with a decline of 1 percentage point compared to January to October. Manufacturing investment grew by 1.9%, a slowdown of 0.8 percentage points compared to January to September, indicating a continued downward trend in investment growth and weak steel demand [1][2] - In December, weekly average demand for rebar was 2.08 million tons, down 7% from November, while hot-rolled coil demand was 3.08 million tons, down 3% from November. Overall, December steel demand was in line with seasonal characteristics, remaining stable year-on-year. In January, demand is expected to weaken significantly due to falling temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival [1][2] Supply - From January to November, China's crude steel production was 891.67 million tons and 774.05 million tons, down 4% and 2.3% year-on-year, respectively. In November, crude steel and pig iron production were 6.987 million tons and 6.234 million tons, down 10.9% and 8.7% year-on-year. Daily average pig iron production in December was 2.2658 million tons, down from November [2] - In December, production of the five major steel products, including rebar and hot-rolled coil, decreased, with weekly production of the five major products down by 58.9 million tons, rebar down by 21.7 million tons, and hot-rolled coil down by 25.5 million tons. Steel mills continued to reduce production, alleviating supply pressure significantly [2] Inventory - In December, inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 1.428 million tons, with rebar inventory down by 972,000 tons and hot-rolled coil inventory down by 237,000 tons. However, total inventory of the five major products increased year-on-year by 1.4862 million tons, with rebar and hot-rolled coil inventories up by 345,100 tons and 701,300 tons, respectively. The accelerated decline in inventory in December, amid production cuts, alleviated both total inventory and structural contradictions, particularly in rebar, where many regions experienced specification shortages, providing strong support for steel prices [2][3] Exports - In November, China exported 9.98 million tons of steel, an increase of 200,000 tons from October, representing a month-on-month growth of 2.04%. Cumulatively, from January to November, steel exports reached 10.772 million tons, up 6.7% year-on-year. However, starting January 1, 2026, the implementation of the "Steel Product Export License Management" system is expected to increase export pressure, leading to a noticeable decline in export volume [3] Costs - In December, iron ore prices remained firm, while the fourth round of coke price reductions was implemented, leading to improved profitability for long-process steel mills and a narrowing of losses for short-process steel mills. The profitability of 247 steel mills rose to 38.1%, indicating a potential weakening of cost support for steel prices. However, in January, steel mills are expected to replenish raw materials, which may lead to stronger performance in raw material prices compared to finished products [3][4] Summary - The steel market in December faced insufficient contradictions and weak driving forces, resulting in continued narrow fluctuations in steel prices. In January, demand is expected to weaken significantly due to falling temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival, while supply may increase as steel mill profitability improves. The market is anticipated to shift to a scenario of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory entering a period of accumulation. Additionally, the implementation of the steel product export license system and customs tax verification is expected to lead to a temporary decline in steel exports, increasing supply-demand pressure and potentially leading to weaker steel prices [4]