Core Viewpoint - The company Muyuan Foods plans to begin its IPO subscription on January 29, aiming to raise approximately $1.5 billion, with Morgan Stanley, CITIC Securities, and Goldman Sachs as joint sponsors [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Muyuan Foods is a leader in the pig farming industry, employing a vertically integrated business model that covers the entire pig industry chain, including breeding, farming, feed production, and meat processing [1] - According to Frost & Sullivan, since 2021, Muyuan Foods has been the largest pig farming company globally in terms of production capacity and output, maintaining the highest pig output for four consecutive years [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the fiscal years 2022, 2023, 2024, and the nine months ending September 30 for 2024 and 2025, Muyuan Foods reported revenues of approximately CNY 124.83 billion, CNY 110.86 billion, CNY 137.95 billion, CNY 96.78 billion, and CNY 111.79 billion respectively [1] - The net profits for the same periods were approximately CNY 14.93 billion, -CNY 4.17 billion, CNY 18.93 billion, CNY 11.25 billion, and CNY 15.11 billion respectively [1] Group 3: Use of Proceeds - Muyuan Foods intends to use the funds raised from the IPO to explore overseas opportunities, expand its business footprint, invest in R&D for technological innovation across the entire industry chain, and for working capital and general corporate purposes [1]

金融期货早评 宏观：美日联手干预汇率 【市场资讯】1）美国总统特朗普威胁将韩国商品的关税提高至 25%，理由是他所称的该国 立法机构未能将两国去年达成的贸易协议编纂成法。2）中国人民银行召开 2026 年宏观审 慎工作会议。3）日本首相高市早苗：如果执政联盟在众议院选举中无法获得多数席位，我 将立即辞职。4）欧盟将于 2027 年 1 月全面禁止进口俄液化天然气，同年 9 月底全面禁止 进口俄管道天然气。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】人民币方面，央行邹澜明确以香港为离岸核心枢纽，通过扩容离 岸资产供给、翻倍香港人民币流动性安排完善金融生态，这一布局适配人民币从贸易结算 向投资储备的国际化升级，既解决外资人民币资产配置需求，也能为 A 股引入长期资金， 对接国内科技产业的估值与发展需求。日元的困境远超汇率层面，纽约联储的询价动作与 日本官员的干预表态虽短期拉动日元反弹，但美日利差、结构性资本外流仍在，叠加首相 高市早苗将汇率与大选绑定的政治风险，反弹缺乏基本面支撑。更关键的是，其削减消费 税的言论引发市场对财政纪律松弛的担忧，直接导致日债长端利率攀升、收益率曲线熊市 走陡，彻底颠覆全球固收市场逻辑，债券从避险工具变为 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: January 27, 2026 [2] 2. Core View - On the supply side, until April, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase. Second - round fattening pen utilization is currently higher year - on - year, and there are still pigs to be slaughtered before the Spring Festival. The planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises in January decreased by 3.1% month - on - month, and the current slaughter rhythm is slightly slow. On the demand side, as the spot price rebounds to a high and the Spring Festival approaches, second - round fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Terminal consumer demand is average, and the consumption of group meals may decrease. The sales of white - striped pigs are poor, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises have decreased. Overall, the spot market is mainly in a shock state, and the 03/05 futures contracts are mainly in a weak shock state [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures**: On the 26th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and fluctuated downward, closing with a negative line. The highest was 11,530 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,440 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.99% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 8,258 lots to 345,665 lots [8]. - **Spot**: On the 26th, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 12.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of January 23, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening was 12.15 yuan/kg, flat week - on - week. The cost of fattening with externally purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices, and the expected cost of fattening to 125 kg and then slaughtering was 12.63 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4 yuan/kg week - on - week [10][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Profit**: As of January 23, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was 73 yuan/head, an increase of 47.7 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of fattening with externally purchased piglets was - 38.7 yuan/head, a decrease of 61.8 yuan/head week - on - week [13]. - **Slaughter weight**: In the week of January 22, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.89 kg, an increase of 0.04 kg from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%, a decrease of 0.81 kg from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 0.62%, and an increase of 7.38 kg from the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 6.07% [13]. - **Price difference**: In the week of January 22, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.64 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.16 yuan/jin week - on - week [13]. - **Fattening cost**: The cost of purchasing 110 - kg pigs and fattening them to 140 kg this week was 12.41 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125 - kg pigs and fattening them to 150 kg was 12.92 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week [13]. - **Annual data**: In 2025, the number of pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million year - on - year, a growth of 2.4%. The pork output was 59.38 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons year - on - year, a growth of 4.1%, reaching a record high [13].

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods, listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2014, has passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing and is set to achieve A+H listing, with a current A-share market value of 249.1 billion RMB and a projected P/E ratio of 13.7 times for 2025 [1] Group 1: Business Overview - Muyuan Foods operates primarily in two segments: pig breeding and sales, and meat processing [2] - The company has established a complete industry chain covering pig breeding, raising, feed production, and sales, making it the world's largest pig breeding enterprise since 2021, with a global market share increasing from 2.6% in 2021 to 5.6% in 2024 [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - In the broader global and Hong Kong meat industry, Muyuan's valuation prospects post-listing require careful assessment, especially compared to competitors like WH Group, which has a market cap of just over 100 billion HKD and a dynamic P/E ratio below 10 times [3][4] - WH Group's business model, which includes downstream processing and sales, provides more stable profit margins compared to Muyuan's upstream focus, which is heavily influenced by commodity price fluctuations [3][4] Group 3: Valuation Comparisons - In the Hong Kong market, comparable companies such as Decon Agricultural and COFCO Joycome have long been valued at single-digit P/E ratios, reflecting market caution towards highly cyclical and asset-heavy industries like pig farming [5][6] - Both Decon and COFCO Joycome's market performance indicates that the Hong Kong market generally assigns lower valuation premiums to cyclical farming enterprises compared to their A-share counterparts [6] Group 4: Challenges and Strategic Path - Muyuan's upcoming Hong Kong listing aims to broaden international financing channels and enhance brand influence, but it faces the challenge of valuation disparity in a more mature market [7] - To attract international investors and align its valuation with its global leadership position, Muyuan must demonstrate its global expansion capabilities and the replicability of its cost advantages in Southeast Asia [7][8] Group 5: Globalization Strategy - The listing is a crucial step in Muyuan's global strategy, transitioning from a domestic leader to a globally recognized protein producer, which could shift market valuation logic from focusing solely on pig cycles to assessing global growth potential [8][9] - The long-term performance of Muyuan in the Hong Kong market will be a test of its cost management and execution of its globalization strategy, with its stock price dependent on international investors' confidence in its narrative of becoming a world-class player [9]

每经AI快讯，银河证券指出，强调生猪养殖行业的攻守兼备布局机会，基于能繁母猪作用值及养殖效 率的考虑，今年猪价同比下行，期间或有所反弹表现；综合考虑政策去产能以及行业亏损去产能，重点 关注成本边际变化显著、资金面良好的优质猪企。2）宠物食品行业处成长过程中，优质企业市占率呈 提升趋势。3）可关注养殖链后周期及动物疫苗相关企业。4）考虑黄羽鸡自身供给相对低位，叠加需求 端的改善预期。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the recognition of 3 "Special Contribution Entrepreneurs" and 20 "2025 Entrepreneurs" who exemplify long-termism and innovation across various industries in China, including liquor, manufacturing, energy, agriculture, internet, AI, and new consumption [1][2]. Group 1: Special Contribution Entrepreneurs - Ji Keliang, former chairman of Kweichow Moutai Group, transformed traditional brewing techniques into scientific data over 60 years, emphasizing quality over speed, which laid the foundation for Moutai's billion-dollar brand value [4][10][12]. - Zhang Ruimin, founder of Haier Group, is known for his continuous self-disruption and innovation, leading Haier from a struggling factory to a global leader in home appliances with over 400 billion yuan in revenue [18][20][21]. - Jiang Baoquan, founder of Nanjing Gold Foil Holdings, turned a failing workshop into the world's largest gold foil producer, emphasizing resilience and innovative management theories [25][27][29]. Group 2: 2025 Entrepreneurs - Ma Huateng, chairman of Tencent, focuses on "technology for good," committing to social responsibility and innovation in digital technology to drive high-quality economic development [31][34][41]. - Wang Ning, founder of Pop Mart, capitalizes on emotional value and consumer psychology, creating a successful business model around collectible toys that resonate with young consumers [43][45][46]. - Wang Xingxing, founder of Yushutech, leads advancements in humanoid robotics, achieving significant market presence and profitability while promoting technological innovation [48][49][51]. - Fang Hongbo, chairman of Midea Group, has successfully transformed Midea into a global technology group through strategic restructuring and a focus on efficiency and innovation [54][56]. - Liu Yonghao, chairman of New Hope Group, maintains a long-term vision in agriculture, achieving growth even during economic downturns by embracing new technologies [67][69][70]. - Liu Qiangdong, founder of JD.com, integrates the concept of "common prosperity" into business practices, ensuring fair profit distribution among stakeholders while enhancing supply chain efficiency [73][75][78]. - Li Dongsheng, founder of TCL, exemplifies global leadership in semiconductor display and photovoltaic sectors, driving innovation and sustainable growth through strategic partnerships [110][111].

Group 1 - The Livestock ETF (159865) rose over 2.1%, attracting institutional attention due to capacity and policy developments [1] - In poultry farming, frequent outbreaks of avian influenza overseas create uncertainty for the introduction of grandparent stock, which is expected to benefit the white feather chicken industry chain prices in the medium to long term [1] - In the pig farming sector, pig prices are fluctuating, with group farms increasing output while smallholders continue to hold back on sales. Supply pressures remain, and policy guidance may accelerate capacity reduction [1] Group 2 - The animal health industry faces demand pressure from the breeding cycle perspective, but the launch of new products by various companies provides growth momentum [1] - In the seed industry, attention should be paid to the progress of biological breeding expansion and the promotion of genetically modified corn [1] - The pet sector is experiencing limited impact from export order disruptions, while the domestic market continues to show growth trends, with domestic brands increasing market share [1] Group 3 - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the CSI Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming, feed processing, and animal health from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to reflect the overall performance of related securities [1] - The index covers the entire industry chain from farming to animal health, providing a comprehensive representation of the industry [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the pig farming sector is experiencing short-term supply pressure, with piglet prices continuing to rise. The industry is seeing a recovery in breeding sentiment as profits have turned positive, and the expectation of capacity reduction is weakening. The report anticipates that pig prices may stop declining and start to rise due to capacity control policies and decreasing costs for listed companies, leading to sustained profitability [4][16] - The poultry sector is facing a contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," with the potential for leading companies to increase their market share. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with improving return on equity (ROE) and sustainable performance [6][18] - The feed sector is recommended to focus on Hai Da Group, which aims to increase its dividend payout ratio and has a clear long-term growth path. The company is also expanding its overseas market presence, which is expected to lead to significant growth [8][20] - The pet food sector shows a trend of increasing concentration, with head brands gaining advantages. The report notes a decline in export growth rates, particularly to the U.S., but anticipates a recovery in domestic sales [10][21] - The agricultural products sector is seeing a price recovery from the bottom, with attention needed on weather and import impacts. The report suggests that the agricultural sector has significant investment value due to its historical low valuations and the need to protect farmers' incomes [11][23] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming - The SW pig farming sector has seen a 1.1% decline, primarily due to market sentiment and concerns over capacity reduction. The average weight of pigs at market is still high at 129 kg, with prices fluctuating around 13.03 yuan/kg. The number of breeding sows has decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a normal holding level [4][16] - The report emphasizes the shift in industry policy towards protecting farmers' rights and encouraging innovation, suggesting that future growth stocks will focus on technological content and innovative models [4][16] 2. Poultry - The poultry sector is experiencing price fluctuations, with broiler prices at 3.8 yuan/kg, reflecting a 4.11% increase week-on-week. The report notes that the poultry industry is facing a contradiction of high production capacity and weak consumption, which may lead to market share gains for integrated companies [6][18] 3. Feed - The report recommends Hai Da Group, which plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to over 50% and has set ambitious sales targets for 2050. The company is expected to benefit from improved management and increased production capacity [8][20] 4. Pet Food - The pet food sector is seeing a decline in export growth, particularly to the U.S., where exports fell by 29.7%. However, the report anticipates a recovery in domestic sales, suggesting that companies focusing on domestic brands will have a long-term advantage [10][21] 5. Agricultural Products - The agricultural products sector is witnessing a price recovery, with soybean meal prices rising by 0.6%. The report highlights the importance of monitoring weather conditions and import situations, as well as the overall investment value of the agricultural sector due to its low valuations [11][23]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the only agricultural ETF (159275) showing a significant increase, recovering key moving averages [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) opened with fluctuations but quickly surged, closing with a gain of 1.53%, recovering the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as Huisheng Biological and Rhine Biological, reached their daily limit, while others like Haili Biological and Zhongmu Co. also showed significant gains [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The livestock farming sector faces supply pressures, and policy guidance may accelerate capacity reduction. The poultry farming sector is influenced by frequent outbreaks of avian influenza, creating uncertainty in breeding stock imports, which could benefit the white feather chicken industry in the medium to long term [1]. - The animal health industry continues to show potential for growth, with new products being launched to drive revenue. The seed industry should focus on the progress of biological breeding expansion, while the pet sector maintains a growth trend with increasing market share for domestic brands [1]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The current valuation of the agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is relatively low, indicating a favorable time for investment. As of January 23, the agricultural ETF (159275) had a price-to-book ratio of 2.5, positioned at the 23.53 percentile over the past five years, highlighting its long-term investment value [3]. - Short-term forecasts suggest that pig prices may still decline, with industry capacity already reduced due to policy adjustments and supply pressures. The overall profitability of the pig farming sector remains strong, with opportunities for high-quality enterprises to capture excess profits [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【生猪周报（LH)】 近月需求旺季不旺，远月产能去化支撑 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-01-26 谢威 从业资格证号：F03087820 投资咨询证号：Z0019508 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 02 PART TWO 生猪基本面数据 现货价格 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 生猪：近月需求旺季不旺，远月产能去化支撑 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | - ...