有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/18 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/11 90 1103 107404 33373 -874.85 136.66 38.0 60.0 55.49 119450 70700 2025/06/12 95 990 107404 32785 -642.66 374.84 38.0 60.0 85.51 116850 68125 2025/06/13 50 660 - 36269 -901.68 236.81 38.0 60.0 73.41 114475 63625 2025/06/16 25 570 - 47051 -854.45 266.19 39.0 60.0 95.59 107325 56325 2025/06/17 230 804 - 54541 -1307.92 -170.98 39.0 60.0 122.77 107550 54600 变化 205 234 - 7490 -453. ...

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan province's industrial value added for the first five months of 2023 increased by 7.1% year-on-year, outpacing the national growth rate by 0.8 percentage points [1] Economic Indicators - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Sichuan reached 1,173.45 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than the national average [1] Industry Performance - Out of 41 major industry categories, 35 reported an increase in value added during the first five months [1] - The automotive manufacturing industry saw a significant increase in value added, growing by 22.2% year-on-year [1] - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry experienced a growth of 18.8% year-on-year [1] - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry grew by 14.9% year-on-year [1] - The black metal smelting and rolling processing industry also increased by 14.9% year-on-year [1] - The electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry reported a growth of 10.3% year-on-year [1]

| | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | 本报告期比上年同期增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | | 营业收入(元) | 1,394,869,375.68 | 892, 462, 177. 62 | 56. 29% | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利 | 4,751,511.30 | -27,697, 372, 62 | 117. 16% | | 润(元) | | | | | 归属于上市公司股东的扣除 | | | | | 非经常性损益的净利润 | -4,775,711.99 | -32.459.882.72 | 85. 29% | | (元) | | | | | 经营活动产生的现金流量净 | -509,887,933.66 | -348,356,179,91 | -46. 37% | | 额(元) | | | | 铜冠铜箔于2022年1月27日在深圳证券交易所创业板上市，公开发行股票20,725.3886万股，发行价格 17.27元/股，保荐机构(主承销商)为国泰君安证券股份有限公司(现名"国泰海通证券股份有限公司")，保 荐代表人为朱哲磊、张翼；联席主承销商为平安 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-18 锌现货升水持续回落 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-28.01 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日上涨10元/吨至22010元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌40元/吨至180元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日上涨30元/吨至22020元/ 吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌20元/吨至190元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日上涨30元/吨 至22030元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌20元/吨至200元/吨。 期货方面：2025-06-17沪锌主力合约开于21955元/吨，收于21905元/吨，较前一交易日上涨105元/吨，全天交易日 成交124389手，较前一交易日减少39573手，全天交易日持仓105668手，较前一交易日减少10596手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到21985元/吨，最低点达到21760元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-06-16，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为7.81万吨，较上周同期减少-0.36万吨。截止2025-06-17，LME 锌库存为128875吨，较上一交易日减少1350吨。 ...

宏观 股指 市场分析：美联储降息预期升温，美元走弱利好新兴市场风险偏好。国内经济呈现"稳中有 进"态势，消费对 GDP 增长的贡献率显著提升，科技制造投资加速，出口结构向中高端市场 倾斜，货币政策保持灵活适度，流动性充裕为市场提供支撑。 参考观点：关注 6 月 18 日陆家嘴论坛政策信号，中东局势或引发波动率放大。IH 与 IF 建 议采取中性策略，持有卖出虚值期权或轻仓多头。IC 与 IM 可布局跨期价差套利，或逢低配 置远期合约对冲波动。 原油 宏观与地缘：高度关注以伊冲突发展，是近期油价关键影响因素。目前，市场开始观望，波 动率大幅增加。 市场分析：基本面看，原油夏季旺季即将到来，同时美库存连续三周下滑，一定程度上在基 本面也支撑油价的上涨。但同时中期看，需要密切关注中东局势特别是伊朗对以色列袭击的 反击，中东局势若持续升级，则原油价格易涨难跌。多家机构预测称，若地区冲突进一步扩 大，不排除油价重新回到高油价区间。需密切关注该影响因素。同时，若该驱动逐渐淡化， 或冲突降级，原油的风险溢价也将快速回落。近期波动率将大幅增加。 参考观点：WTI 主力关注 78 美元/桶附近压力。 黄金 宏观与地缘：地缘冲突 ...

| 产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月18日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | 现值 | | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解销 | 119825 | 120725 | -900 | -0.75% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镇 | 120925 | 121775 | -850 | -0.70% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镍升贴水 | 2600 | 2500 | 100 | 4.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | 118675 | 119625 | -950 | -0.79% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镍升贴水 | 350 | 350 | 0 | - | 元/肥 | | LME 0-3 | -204 | -192 | -12 | 6.22% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | -3303 | -3090 | -213 | 6.89% | 元/吨 | | ...

6月17日，江西省统计局、国家统计局江西调查总队联合发布的1至5月全省经济运行数据显示：我省工 业生产较快增长、投资动能持续增强、市场销售平稳增长，全省经济运行保持平稳。其中，全省规模以 上工业增加值同比增长8.4%，高于全国平均水平2.1个百分点。 今年以来，我省深入推进"1269"行动计划，持续提升产业整体竞争力，工业对稳增长的支撑作用更加凸 显。1至5月，全省38个规模以上工业大类行业中，26个行业增加值同比实现增长。其中，汽车制造业， 计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业均实现两位数增长。新质生产力加快 培育，全省装备制造业增加值、高技术制造业增加值同比分别增长13.6%、14.3%。企业效益保持高速 增长，1至4月，全省规模以上工业企业实现营业收入13351.2亿元、同比增长6.8%，实现利润总额515.6 亿元、同比增长13.2%。 我省积极对接落实各项存量政策和增量政策，大力引进一批大项目好项目，加力推进重大项目建设，不 断扩大有效投资。1至5月，全省固定资产投资同比增长5.4%；全省亿元以上在建项目7274个，完成投 资同比增长6.8%，拉动投资增长4.7个百分点；在制造 ...

●全省实现社会消费品零售总额11734.5亿元，同比增长5.6%，增速比全国快0.6个百分点 从房地产开发看，房地产开发投资同比下降6.7%。商品房施工面积同比下降12.3%，新建商品房销 售面积同比下降7.4%。 消费品市场情况方面，按消费形态分，前5月，餐饮收入1611.8亿元，同比增长4.5%；商品零售 10122.8亿元，同比增长5.8%。在商品零售中，限额以上企业（单位）通过互联网实现商品零售额863.4 从行业增长面看，前5月，41个大类行业中有35个行业增加值实现增长，其中，汽车制造业增加值 同比增长22.2%，化学原料和化学制品制造业同比增长18.8%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业同 比增长14.9%，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业同比增长14.9%，电气机械和器材制造业同比增长10.3%。 从主要工业产品产量看，前5月，天然气产量同比增长11.2%，发电量同比增长2.8%，智能手表同 比增长95.2%，发电机组（发电设备）同比增长60.8%，锂离子电池同比增长49.0%，汽车同比增长 36.4%，工业锅炉同比增长33.1%，液晶显示屏同比增长28.6%，集成电路同比增长14.6%，智能手机同 ...

供应层面看，4月产量季节性回升，5月下旬起钢厂部分被动减产。需求层面，刚需为主。成本方面，镍铁、铬铁价格维 持。库存方面，锡佛两地小幅累库，交易所仓单部分到期去化。基本面整体维持偏弱，需求转淡后现货压力增大，短期 有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/17 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/10 90 1043 107404 33746 -1195.14 161.13 43.0 66.0 84.10 120400 71725 2025/06/11 90 1103 107404 33373 -874.85 136.66 38.0 60.0 55.49 119450 70700 2025/06/12 95 990 107404 32785 -642.66 374.84 38.0 60.0 85.51 116850 68125 2025/06/13 50 660 - 36269 -901.68 236.81 38.0 60.0 73 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, the main contract price of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly around 78,500 yuan. This week, the market digested news about the Middle - East situation, risk appetite rebounded, and the gold price continued to fall. On the industrial level, on June 16th, the weekly inventory of electrolytic copper in social warehouses slightly decreased, and the spread between July and August contracts rebounded. With a warming macro - atmosphere and strong industrial support, the copper price may continue to rise [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, the aluminum price increased in volume and open interest, and the main contract price approached the 20,500 - yuan mark. This week, the market digested news about the Middle - East situation, and risk appetite rebounded. On the industrial level, domestic demand was good, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to decline. As the futures price rises, downstream demand may be affected, and the spread between July and August contracts has declined. It is expected that the futures price will remain strong, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, the nickel price decreased in volume and open interest, breaking below the 119,000 - yuan mark. Since last week, nickel has shown weakness in the non - ferrous metals sector, mainly due to its industrial weakness and news - related impacts. Since last Wednesday, the market has expected that the Philippines may cancel the ban on ore export policies, and the support previously provided to the futures price by the strong nickel ore market has weakened. Technically, this week, the futures price broke below the 120,000 - yuan mark, with strong downward momentum [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Aluminum**: On June 16th, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in May 2025, the added value of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and the cumulative added value from January to May increased by 7.1% year - on - year. The output of ten non - ferrous metals in May was 6.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%; the cumulative output from January to May was 33.4 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum in May was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%; the output of electrolytic aluminum from January to May was 18.59 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.0% [9]. - **Nickel**: On June 17th, the main reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2507 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,500 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,990 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium for Russian nickel was +600 yuan/ton, with a price of 119,090 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium for Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,240 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium for nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 117,590 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social warehouses + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE copper warrant inventory [11][13][14] - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27] - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel inventory, LME nickel price trend, SHFE nickel inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][36][38]