Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the documents. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Fundamental factors such as decreasing production, increasing exports, and expected inventory decline to around 2.9 million tons will support the crude palm oil futures to effectively stand above 4,200 ringgit. The Dalian palm oil futures market will maintain a volatile rebound trend, mainly fluctuating around 9,200 yuan in the short term. After effective consolidation and standing above 9,100 yuan, there is a chance for the futures to follow and gradually launch an upward market [1]. - Soybean oil: The new guidance on the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit may increase the industrial use of US soybean oil, but this positive factor has been digested by the market. With the continuous listing of Brazilian soybeans, CBOT soybeans may decline. In the domestic market, Brazilian soybeans are being harvested and listed, and the market's price - holding mentality is weak. The spot soybean oil will continue to fluctuate with the market, and the basis quote will remain stable [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the external market and the inflow of long - position funds, the rapeseed oil futures price once reached 9,300 yuan. However, as the Spring Festival stocking ends, the terminal demand weakens, and the willingness of funds to chase the rise is insufficient. The spot market transactions are mainly for rigid demand, and the far - month basis quote has significantly declined [1]. Apples - In the production areas, the stocking atmosphere of late - maturing Fuji apples in Gansu and Liaoning is good, and the de - stocking progress of the national apple inventory has accelerated. In the sales areas, the arrival volume of apples in Guangdong wholesale markets has increased significantly, but there is pressure on the daily digestion of the arrival volume. The market sentiment has warmed up, and the futures price has increased with positions. Attention should be paid to the inventory de - stocking situation [4][8]. Red Dates - The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern in the 25/26 production season of red dates still exists. Traders are cautious in stocking, and downstream buyers purchase on demand. With the approaching suspension of logistics, the arrival volume in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market has decreased recently. The futures are still in the low - valuation range, and the registration volume of new - season red date futures warehouse receipts and effective forecasts is relatively small. The social inventory utilization rate is high, and the short - term de - stocking pressure is difficult to relieve. It is expected that the red date price will maintain a volatile bottom - building trend [10]. Pigs - The spot price continues to weaken, and the market's willingness to sell has also increased. The average daily slaughter volume in February will remain high. The slaughter profit is limited, and it is the traditional stocking peak before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the pre - festival stocking intensity. The current fundamental positive factors are limited, and the game will increase. The spot price may have support later. The positive sentiment in the futures market yesterday was mainly due to the policy of strengthening the comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity in the No. 1 Central Document, but the current loose pattern still exists. It is expected that the market will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [11]. Meal - The US soybeans maintain a range - oscillating pattern with limited phased drivers. The shipping from Brazil has accelerated, and the weather speculation in Argentina has decreased. The 3 - 5 spread has narrowed. The pre - festival stocking sentiment in the market is expected to gradually weaken, and the futures lack further drivers. Attention should be paid to the left - hand side changes [13]. Corn - In the Northeast, the grain sales have increased compared with the previous period, but the enterprises' replenishment is approaching the end, and the procurement demand is average, with prices running steadily and weakly. In North China, the number of arriving vehicles continues to increase slightly but is unevenly distributed in different regions, with prices rising and falling. On the demand side, the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased significantly but is still at a relatively low level, with a slight willingness to replenish inventory; feed enterprises have basically completed pre - festival stocking and mainly purchase on demand. In the short term, corn stocking is approaching the end, and the trading will gradually weaken, which will put pressure on prices. However, the relatively fast grain sales, the farmers' price - holding attitude, and the low inventory of the middle and lower reaches support the prices, and the overall price will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the subsequent grain sales rhythm and policy release intensity [15]. Sugar - The ICE raw sugar futures have declined, and the market is concerned about supply - related news. Traders are closely watching the news from the annual Dubai Sugar Conference. It is expected that due to the decline in production, the global sugar supply may be more balanced in the 2026/27 season. Internationally, Brazil is approaching the end of the crushing season, which is in line with the previous estimates of institutions, and has less impact on the market. India's sugarcane crushing progress in the 2025/26 season has accelerated significantly, with the cumulative sugar production increasing by more than 20% year - on - year as of mid - January. Thailand's cumulative sugar production has decreased by about 12% year - on - year due to the white leaf disease and the delayed start of crushing, and the sugar production may have a slight downward adjustment space. It is expected that the raw sugar will maintain a low - level oscillation between 14 - 15 cents. Domestically, the Spring Festival stocking is approaching the end, and the market news is dull. The current price is at the bottom - grinding stage. Although there is no positive driver in the market, the negative factors have been gradually realized. In the absence of new negative factors, the price decline is blocked. It is expected that the futures will more follow the overall macro - sentiment fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around the previous high of 5,300 [19][20]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures have slightly declined. The registration of warehouse receipts for delivery has put pressure on the near - month contracts, and traders are waiting for the weekly export sales report from the US Department of Agriculture. The US cotton listing inspection is approaching the end, and the inspection progress has slightly accelerated but is still slower than the same period last year. The weekly deliverable ratio has continued to decline slightly. The USDA export sales have significantly declined, but the shipping has entered the peak period. In the industry, the cotton price is still under pressure but also has support. The market buying power is strong, and the cotton consumption is not weak, so the support below the cotton price is still strong. On the demand side, the pre - festival inventory replenishment of textile enterprises has basically ended, the operating rate has slightly declined, and the rigid - demand procurement is cautious, with only a small amount of sporadic replenishment. The stocking rhythm of traders has slowed down, and the trading atmosphere has cooled down. However, the high commercial inventory has not loosened the spot. In the short term, the cotton price may oscillate in a wide range, and attention should be paid to the support strength around 14,500 [21]. Eggs - In February, the number of newly - laid hens is expected to continue to decrease due to the low - level replenishment in the previous period. The number of old - hen slaughters will also slightly decrease. The inventory of laying hens in production will continue to decline. However, due to the suspension of trading during the Spring Festival, a large amount of inventory may accumulate in the market, and the market will face great pressure to sell goods after the festival. On the demand side, the Spring Festival stocking has basically ended, and the demand has rapidly weakened, especially in the southern market. The oversupply and the enhanced market risk - control awareness have led to an increase in the inventory in the production and circulation links. It is expected that the main contract will maintain a weak - oscillating trend in the range [22][23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8,510 yuan, up 0.59% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2605 is 8,086 yuan, down 0.67%. The basis is - 4, down 1.07%. The 05 - 09 spread is 56, up from 10 [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,100 yuan, down 0.44%. The futures price of P2605 is 9,094 yuan, down 0.48%. The basis is 2, down 66.67%. The 05 - 09 spread is - 2, down 3.70% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil is 10,044 yuan, up 0.20%. The futures price of OI605 is 9,243 yuan, up 0.30%. The basis is 801, down 0.99%. The 05 - 09 spread is - 15, down 18.75% [1]. Apples - The futures price of the main contract Apple 2605 is 9,594 yuan, up 1.15%. The price of Apple 2610 is 8,310 yuan, up 0.65%. The basis is - 1394, down 8.48%. The 5 - 10 spread is 1284, up 4.48%. The arrival volume in several wholesale markets has increased, and the national cold - storage inventory is 6.5405 million tons, down 4.21% [4]. Red Dates - The futures price of the main contract Red Dates 2605 is 8,905 yuan, down 0.17%. The price of Red Dates 2607 is 8,940 yuan, down 0.22%. The price of Red Dates 2609 is 9,095 yuan, down 0.22%. The 5 - 7 spread is - 35, up 12.50%. The 5 - 9 spread is - 190, up 2.56%. The warehouse receipts and effective forecasts total 3,829, down 0.18% [10]. Pigs - The futures price of the main contract Pig 2605 is 11,735 yuan, up 1.16%. The price of Pig 2603 is 11,150 yuan, down 0.09%. The 3 - 5 spread is - 585, down 32.95%. The main - contract position is 145,975 hands, up 58.25%. The warehouse receipts are 647, up 547.00%. The spot prices in different regions have different degrees of decline [11]. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 3,100 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2605 is 2,723 yuan, down 0.15%. The basis is 377, up 1.07%. The warehouse receipts are 36,228, up 8.4% [13]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,520 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of RM2605 is 2,247 yuan, down 0.09%. The basis is 273, up 0.74%. The warehouse receipts are 0 [13]. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of Corn 2603 is 2,263 yuan, down 0.18%. The basis is 62, up 6.90%. The 3 - 7 spread is - 20, down 33.33%. The import profit is 223 yuan, down 1.84%. The position is 1,825,020 hands, down 2.85%. The warehouse receipts are 53,570, down 2.39% [15]. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2603 is 2,510 yuan, up 0.04%. The basis is 242, up 0.83%. The 3 - 7 spread is - 71, down 4.41%. The starch - corn 03 spread is 247, up 2.07%. The position is 299,151 hands, up 0.37%. The warehouse receipts are 11,161, unchanged [15]. Sugar - The futures price of Sugar 2605 is 5,210 yuan, up 0.83%. The price of Sugar 2609 is 5,214 yuan, up 0.71%. The ICE raw sugar price is 14.63 cents per pound, up 2.59%. The 5 - 9 spread is - 4, up 60.00%. The main - contract position is 451,761 hands, up 0.06%. The warehouse receipts are 14,216, unchanged. The effective forecasts are 503, up 2.86% [19]. Cotton - The futures price of Cotton 2605 is 14,680 yuan, up 0.20%. The price of Cotton 2609 is 14,805 yuan, up 0.17%. The ICE cotton price is 62.30 cents per pound, down 0.80%. The 5 - 9 spread is - 125, up 3.85%. The main - contract position is 716,331 hands, down 0.22%. The warehouse receipts are 10,438, up 0.37%. The effective forecasts are 1,369, down 0.22% [21]. Eggs - The futures price of Egg 03 is 2,945 yuan per 500 kg, down 0.27%. The price of Egg 04 is 3,183 yuan per 500 kg, down 0.47%. The egg - producing area price is 3.57 yuan per catty, down 2.49%. The basis is - 83, down 11.71%. The 3 - 4 spread is - 238, up 2.86% [22].

研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/05 【行情分析】： 棉花：期初库存同比较低，抵消了大部分产量的增量，主要关注后续消费情况。由于国内纺织产量还在扩张，且下游利润尚可，叠加国内促消 费政策频出，利好内需，同时对外出口表现尚可，预计棉花需求将持续好转，且新作季新疆种植面积降有所下降，总体上棉花适合长期做多。 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2026/01/29 | 2190 | 2290 | 2300 | 2430 | 9 | 10 | 310 | 2750 | 2820 | 160 | -98 | | 2026/01/30 | 2190 | 2290 | 2300 | 2440 | 19 | 20 | 323 | 2750 | 2820 | 174 | -98 | | 2026/ ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Before the USDA's February agricultural product supply - demand report, analysts made various predictions about soybean production and inventory in 2025 - 26, including those of the US, Brazil, and Argentina, as well as global soybean inventory [1]. - In the week ending January 29, US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales are expected to increase within certain ranges [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to end ten consecutive months of increase in January due to decreased production and increased exports [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Soybean Production and Inventory Forecast - The average forecast for the US 2025 - 26 soybean year - end inventory is 347 million bushels, with a forecast range of 265 - 375 million bushels, compared to the 350 million bushels predicted in the January report [1]. - The average forecast for Brazil's 2025 - 26 soybean production is 179.39 million tons, with a forecast range of 178 - 181.6 million tons, compared to 178 million tons in the January report [1]. - The average forecast for Argentina's 2025 - 26 soybean production is 48.38 million tons, with a forecast range of 47 - 50.5 million tons, compared to 48.5 million tons in the January report [1]. - The average forecast for the global 2025 - 26 soybean year - end inventory is 125.3 million tons, with a forecast range of 121.8 - 127 million tons, compared to 124.41 million tons in the January report [1]. US Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Soybean Oil Export Sales Forecast - As of the week ending January 29, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 40 - 165 million tons, with the current market year expected to increase by 40 - 160 million tons and the next market year by 0 - 5 million tons [1]. - US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 25 - 50 million tons, all in the current market year [1]. - US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 2.5 million tons, all in the current market year [1]. Malaysia Palm Oil Situation - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to drop to 2.91 million tons in January, a 4.64% decrease from December [1]. - Palm oil production is expected to drop 12% to 1.61 million tons, the third consecutive month of decline but still possibly the highest January production since 2019 [1]. - Palm oil product exports are expected to increase 7.48% to 1.42 million tons, the second consecutive month of growth [1]. Price and Basis Information - The report provides historical data on import crushing profits of Brazilian soybeans, import profits of various oils, spot prices of oils and meals, basis of protein meals, basis of oils, and various price spreads in the oil and oilseed market [1].

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: February 5, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Market Review - **Soybean meal futures contracts**: - For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3047, the opening price was 3050, the highest price was 3053, the lowest price was 2973, the closing price was 3002, with a decline of 45 and a decrease rate of 1.48%. The trading volume was 181,273, the open interest was 287,070, and the open interest change was -71,019 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2756, the opening price was 2756, the highest price was 2759, the lowest price was 2721, the closing price was 2727, with a decline of 29 and a decrease rate of 1.05%. The trading volume was 1,085,590, the open interest was 2,153,812, and the open interest change was 64,761 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2607 contract, the previous settlement price was 2704, the opening price was 2703, the highest price was 2709, the lowest price was 2686, the closing price was 2691, with a decline of 13 and a decrease rate of 0.48%. The trading volume was 44,976, the open interest was 484,107, and the open interest change was 10,962 [6]. 3. Core Views - **External market (US soybeans)**: The US soybean futures contracts were weak, with the main contract close to 1055 cents. There was a rebound in the previous period due to the digestion of negative factors. Although the January USDA report raised the ending stocks of the new US soybean season, the price was already significantly below the US soybean planting cost, so the downside was relatively limited. The weekly US soybean export data was good for two consecutive weeks, and there were relatively positive expectations for biodiesel policies, leading to a small - scale rebound. However, fundamentally, due to the basically determined high - yield pattern of Brazilian soybeans, the subsequent supply pressure would always put downward pressure on the market. If US soybean exports weakened or the weather in Argentina improved, the external market might continue to fall below 1050 cents [7]. - **Domestic soybean meal**: The 05 and subsequent contracts were priced based on the external market cost. Since there was a lack of potential positive factors in the CBOT, the overall trend was range - bound, and the rebound was slightly bearish. The risk was that if the subsequent auction of imported soybeans fell short of expectations, it might drive the spot price to rise unexpectedly, which could have a small positive impact on the 05 contract [7]. 4. Industry News - The US Treasury Department issued the 45Z proposed rules on Tuesday to regulate how biofuel producers can obtain a $1 - per - gallon tax credit for low - carbon fuels (including aviation fuels), providing more certainty for producers of ethanol, biodiesel, and other products seeking tax credits. However, analysts pointed out that there were still some unresolved issues in the regulations [10]. - The USDA's monthly soybean crushing data showed that the US soybean crushing volume in December reached the second - highest level in history. The December crushing volume was 229.9 million bushels (equivalent to 6.896 million short tons), a 4.2% increase from November's 220.5 million bushels and a 5.6% increase from December 2024's 217.7 million bushels. The December crushing volume was the second - highest monthly crushing volume, second only to the 236.3 million bushels in October 2025 [10]. - Crop experts estimated the 2025/26 Argentine soybean production at 48 million tons, lower than the previous week's forecast of 49 million tons and the USDA's current estimate of 48.5 million tons. The southern planting area in Argentina has recently become drier, with insufficient rainfall for most of the next few weeks, which requires close attention. The expected 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production remained unchanged at a record 179 million tons, with a tendency to maintain or increase the forecast in the future [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US labor market shows a weakening trend, with the January ADP employment falling short of expectations, leading to a weakening of market risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar. The short - term outlook for the US economy is mixed, with the employment market cooling while the service sector shows mild expansion and inflation pressure remaining [2][18]. - Gold prices fluctuate and close higher. The inflow of bottom - fishing funds lacks sustainability. Geopolitical risks persist, and the progress of the US - Iran negotiation falls short of expectations, increasing the long - short game in the gold market [3][14]. - The bond market has many potential negative factors, and the probability of weakening after a sideways movement is high. It is recommended to moderately focus on shorting T [4][27]. - In the sugar market, the production and sales pressure of sugar mills in Guangxi is large, and the sales pressure is expected to further increase in the later stage of the crushing season. The domestic sugar market is facing seasonal supply pressure, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [5][42]. - After a significant macro - level cooling, zinc prices may enter an oscillatory adjustment stage [6]. - The US propane inventory has decreased significantly, and the de - stocking amplitude is expected to narrow next week [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Key points: The cancellation of the US - Iran negotiation on Friday, the inflow of bottom - fishing funds in the gold market with limited sustainability, the repeated short - term geopolitical situation, and the increase in the long - short game. It is recommended to wait for the volatility to decline before making allocations [3][14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Key points: The Fed decides to keep the capital requirements of large - scale banks unchanged in 2026. The January ADP employment in the US is lower than expected, the labor market weakens, the market risk appetite weakens, and the US dollar rebounds in the short term [16][18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Key points: The performance guidance of AMD is lower than expected, the Q4 revenue of Google's cloud business grows by 48%, but the large - scale capital expenditure in the future causes stock price fluctuations. During the earnings season, the US stock market is expected to maintain high - level oscillations [20][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Key points: The Shanghai Composite Index recovers and returns to 4100 points. Affected by news, coal stocks drive the pro - cyclical blue - chip sector to recover. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures and evenly allocate the three major stock indexes [24][25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Key points: The central bank conducts a 75 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan on the day. The bond market is likely to weaken after a sideways movement, and it is recommended to moderately focus on shorting T [26][27]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - Key points: Some Indonesian coal mines suspend offering due to production quota issues. The Indonesian side has a clear demand for production cut and price protection, and the bottom of coal prices is more solid, but the upward elasticity needs to be observed [28]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Key points: The iron ore project of Atlas Iron is approved by the government. The iron ore price maintains a weak oscillation. The downstream restocking is completed, and the supply is at a high level. The price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [30]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Key points: Brazil imposes anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Indian color - coated sheets. The steel price continues to oscillate. The steel price is less affected by the rise in coal prices, and it is recommended to treat the steel price with an oscillatory mindset [31][33][34]. 2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - Key points: The coking coal price in the Linfen market is weakly stable. The supply may shrink during the Spring Festival. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment is affected by the Indonesian event, showing a strong oscillation [36][37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Key points: India's sugar production increases, and the sugar production in Guangxi decreases. The production and sales rate is at a low level, and the sugar mill's sales pressure is expected to increase. The domestic sugar market is under seasonal supply pressure, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate at a low level [38][40][42]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Key points: Malaysia's palm oil inventory may decline in January. The US Treasury Department issues the 45Z proposed rule. It is recommended to focus on relevant data and conferences and consider going long on dips [43][45][46]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Key points: Sigma Lithium resumes mining operations, and Fulin Jinggong and CATL increase capital in Jiangxi Shenghua. The production and demand of lithium carbonate decline in February, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to go long on dips after the position and volatility stabilize [47][49][51]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Key points: The LME lead shows a discount. The lead market has a situation of weak supply and demand. The lead price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to medium - term long positions [52]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Key points: The LME zinc shows a discount, and Boliden's zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 decreases by 15% quarter - on - quarter. Zinc prices may enter an oscillatory adjustment stage, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][54][55]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Key points: Chile releases a key mineral strategy, and the EU proposes a key mineral partnership with the US. The macro - sentiment supports copper prices, but the short - term spot structure is loose. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57][58]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Key points: The LME tin shows a discount. The supply of tin is expected to ease, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery and consumption improvement [59][60][61]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Key points: The US propane inventory decreases significantly, but the supply is still abundant. It is recommended to wait and see due to various disturbances [62]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - Key points: The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries decreases. The asphalt market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price fluctuates greatly [62][63][65]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (LLDPE) - Key points: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises increases. The LLDPE price may oscillate strongly driven by cost, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival [66]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - Key points: The inventory of Chinese methanol ports decreases. Due to the increasing geopolitical risks, the previous short - selling strategy is no longer valid, and it is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [67]. 2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Key points: Ports in the Mediterranean and Chittagong go on strike. The Middle - East geopolitical situation supports the high - level oscillation of the market. The downward space of the spot price is limited [68][69][70].

"这是咱家今年第一次出门，带了300多斤草莓愣是没够，北京人民太热情了！"2月1日，北京市朝 阳区竞园艺术中心里人头攒动，4排展位前围了不少市民，东港市嘉优农副产品有限公司的摊位前，鲜 红饱满的"红颜"草莓整齐摆放，负责人王佳怡一边张罗着试吃，一边细致讲解草莓的种植特点。 同样忙碌的还有凤城市宝山镇岔路村党总支书记郎庆利，他带着村里种出来的"巢仁"彩色草莓来到 会场，展台前试吃、咨询的市民络绎不绝。借助主办方搭建的直播间，"老郎书记聊天室"两天时间直播 了近6小时，每天线上销售额有1万余元。 2月1日至3日，丹东近50家特色农产品企业、合作社组团来到北京参加"2026年京供—丹东草莓 节"，带来近200种本地特产。 "我们与北京'百姓菜篮子'顺利对接，即将展开进一步合作。"王佳怡说，展会期间，多家丹东企业 与北京商超、社区采购平台达成初步合作意向。 草莓节上展出的不仅有草莓、蓝莓等鲜果，还有草莓果酱、果汁、果脯、糖果等深加工食品以及大 米、食用菌、柞蚕丝服装等特色农产品与非遗文创产品，全方位展现了丹东农业产业的魅力。现场还设 置了草莓糖葫芦、创意草莓汤圆等美食体验区，并结合打卡集章等活动，增强与市民的互动。 ...

品牌农业要壮大，需要打好一套"组合拳"。王统扬建议，用"标准"筑底线，牵头或参与制定高于国标的 团体标准，以品质立口碑；用"链条"拓深度，发展精深加工；用"数字"赋新能，充分利用电商直播，并 建立辐射全国的冷链物流体系。"这是一项长期而系统的工程，需要政府引导、龙头带动和农民参 与。"他说。 省政协委员，昆山市副市长、民建苏州市委会主委单杰分享了一个案例：茶叶是宜兴的特色产业、现代 农业重要板块，当地通过制定宜兴红茶地方标准，开展茶树良种改造，建立清洁化生产车间，严格质量 管理，认证绿色有机食品红茶，让阳羡茶产业品牌效应持续出圈，逐步把"土特产"打造成乡村振兴 的"金钥匙"。 如何进一步放大农业品牌效应?单杰认为，要通过国家农产品地理标志认证、标准化生产和全程溯源， 提升区域公用品牌价值，同时聚焦农业"接二连三"，发展乡村咖啡馆、民宿、研学、休闲农业等新业 态，让"苏"字号产品优价畅销。"当然，必须坚持以农民为主体，让农民深度嵌入产业各环节、稳定享 有增值收益。" 对这个话题，省人大代表、泗阳县百春锦蔬菜专业合作社理事长周相民也很感兴趣。他坦言，我省虽培 育了一批农业品牌，但仍存在区域公用品牌辐射力不足、联农 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the current economic situation from the perspectives of production, demand, CPI, and PPI. It points out that there are seasonal fluctuations in production, low - base effects affect the real - estate market, and there are price changes in various commodities due to multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and geopolitical events [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Growth: Low - base Supports the Real - estate Market's Year - on - Year and Month - on - Month Increase 3.1.1 Production: Seasonal Decline in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption shows a seasonal decline. On February 3, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 81.4 million tons, a 5.7% decrease from January 27. On January 30, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 222.0 million tons, a 7.5% decrease from January 22. With the approaching of the Spring Festival and rising temperatures, power plant daily consumption may further decline [5][12]. - The blast furnace operating rate remains at a high level. On January 30, the national blast furnace operating rate was 79.0%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 23, while the capacity utilization rate was 85.5%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 89.8% on January 30, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from January 23. Due to the Spring Festival, demand is almost stagnant, but steel mills' production remains relatively high, leading to accelerated inventory accumulation [16]. - The tire operating rate remains stable. On January 29, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 62.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from January 22, and the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 74.8%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from January 22. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has a seasonal decline. On January 29, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 84.2%, a 2.5 - percentage - point decrease from January 22, and the operating rate of downstream looms was 42.4%, an 8.8 - percentage - point decrease from January 22 [18]. 3.1.2 Demand: Low - base Supports the Real - estate Market's Year - on - Year and Month - on - Month Increase - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities has a passive increase due to the low - base effect. From February 1 - 3, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 18.7 million square meters, an 181.0% increase from the same period in January, a 1615.3% increase from the same period in February last year, a 32.1% decrease from the same period in February 2024, and a 42.6% decrease from the same period in February 2023. Sales areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities increased by 4474.6%, 1028.3%, and 2830.0% year - on - year respectively [23]. - The auto market is weakening. In January, retail sales decreased by 28% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 35% year - on - year. The change in the auto trade - in policy has affected consumers' purchasing willingness [27]. - Steel prices are fluctuating weakly. On February 3, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.9%, increased by 1.1%, decreased by 0.6%, and decreased by 0.3% respectively compared with January 27. Steel inventory is accumulating more slowly than in previous years [33]. - Cement prices are hitting new lows. On February 3, the national cement price index decreased by 0.8% compared with January 27. Cement demand is weak in different regions due to weather and other factors, but the year - on - year decline in prices is narrowing [34]. - Glass prices remain stable. On February 3, the active glass futures contract price was 1073 yuan/ton, the same as on January 27. The month - on - month decline in glass prices has occurred, and the year - on - year decline is narrowing [39]. - The decline in container shipping freight rate indices has further expanded. On January 30, the CCFI index decreased by 2.7% compared with January 23, and the SCFI index decreased by 9.7%. Due to the long holiday in Asian countries during the Spring Festival and reduced expected shipments before the Spring Festival, there is an oversupply of shipping capacity in the short - term, and freight rates are under pressure [42]. 3.2 Inflation: Intensified Fluctuations in Industrial Product Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Pork Prices Turn Downward - Pork prices turn downward. On February 3, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.6 yuan/kg, a 0.5% decrease from January 27. Although it is the pre - festival stocking peak, the short - term support from consumption is limited, and the supply pressure is still large [49]. - The agricultural product price index is fluctuating. On February 3, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.3% compared with January 27. Different agricultural products have different price trends. Since February, the agricultural product wholesale price index has increased year - on - year and month - on - month [53]. 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Rise and Then Fall - Oil prices rise and then fall. On February 3, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 69.9 and 63.2 US dollars/barrel respectively, a 0.5% and 1.3% increase from January 27. Geopolitical factors have led to significant fluctuations in international oil prices, and short - term volatility will continue [57]. - Copper prices rise while aluminum prices fall. On February 3, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 2.5% and decreased by 2.0% respectively compared with January 27. The domestic commodity index has a month - on - month decline [64]. - Industrial product prices have different month - on - month trends. Since February, the prices of wire rod, coking coal, coke, and steam coal have increased month - on - month, while other industrial products have decreased, with rebar and cement having relatively large declines. The year - on - year decline in most industrial product prices is narrowing [68].

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月04日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | 女女女 | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 標｜油 | ☆☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | な☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | な女女 | | | 鸡蛋 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一震荡调整,本周政策端继续拍卖大豆,市场边际供应增加,成交价格偏强,国产大豆计划拍卖60608吨，全 部成交，底价4050元/吨,成交均价4298元/吨,溢价210-310元/吨。近期地缘与宏观风险事件比较集中，且方 向尚不明确,需要关注宏观对整体商品的引导。近期豆一也受到宏观因素的影响,波动性增 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that India has agreed to reduce tariffs on U.S. exports, specifically cutting industrial tariffs from 13.5% to zero, while maintaining some protective measures on agricultural products [1][5][9] - The reduction in tariffs is driven by India's economic pressures, including a significant drop in foreign investment from $7.8 billion to $1.2 billion and a struggling domestic market, which has led to a need to maintain exports to the U.S., its largest export market [5][7] - The U.S. has employed a "carrot and stick" approach, suggesting that tariff reductions could lead to fewer trade issues, particularly regarding India's purchases of Russian oil, which the U.S. has previously threatened with penalties [7][10] Group 2 - India's decision to lower tariffs is strategic, allowing it to satisfy U.S. demands while preserving its political base by keeping agricultural protections intact, crucial for the upcoming elections [9][10] - The tariff reduction aligns with India's "Make in India" initiative, potentially lowering costs for domestic manufacturers and attracting foreign investment [9] - India's silence on the agreement may indicate a cautious approach, allowing it to gauge public reaction and retain negotiation leverage with the U.S. [10]