-300 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 豆粕9月基差 (江苏) ● 2020/2021 ↓ 2021/2022 ↓ 2022/2023 2023/2024 ↓ 2024/2025 ↓ ↓ 2025/2026 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 ● 2020/2021 ● 2021/2022 ● 2022/2023 ● 2023/2024 ● 2024/2025 ● 2025/2026 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 10月 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 棕榈油5月基差 (广州) 油脂油料量报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/05 隔夜市场信息 : 分析师预计美国2025-26年度大豆年末库存料上调至3.02亿蒲式耳 分析师平均预估,报告料显示，美国2025-26年度大豆年末库存为3.02亿蒲式耳，高于USDA在11月14日报告中预估 000 的2.9亿蒲式耳。 00 10月30日止当周美国大豆出口销售合计净增124.85万吨，符合预期 □USDA出口销售报告显示，10 ...

生产资料市场：基础化学原料价格以涨为主，其中硫酸、甲醇、纯碱分别上涨2.6%、0.9%和0.1%，聚 丙烯下降0.7%。钢材价格略有上涨，其中螺纹钢、高速线材、热轧带钢每吨3349元、3535元和3493 元，分别上涨0.4%、0.3%和0.1%。化肥价格稳中略涨，其中尿素与前一周基本持平，三元复合肥上涨 0.3%。有色金属价格略有波动，其中锌、铜分别上涨0.3%和0.2%，铝下降0.4%。橡胶价格略有回落， 其中天然橡胶、合成橡胶分别下降0.4%和0.2%。煤炭价格略有下降，其中动力煤、炼焦煤每吨789元和 1069元，分别下降0.5%和0.4%，无烟块煤每吨1168元，上涨0.1%。成品油批发价格略有下降，其中0号 柴油、92号汽油、95号汽油分别下降0.6%、0.6%和0.5%。 食用农产品市场：30种蔬菜平均批发价格每公斤5.72元，上涨1.8%，其中菜花、圆白菜、西葫芦分别上 涨11.3%、7.6%和6.6%。6种水果平均批发价格小幅上涨，其中西瓜、葡萄、香蕉分别上涨3.8%、1.2% 和0.7%。水产品批发价格略有上涨，其中鲢鱼、草鱼、大黄鱼分别上涨1.2%、0.7%和0.3%。禽产品批 发价格基 ...

11月份中国大宗商品价格指数为114.1点，环比上涨0.8%，同比上涨1.6%。 中国物流与采购联合会今天（5日）公布11月份中国大宗商品价格指数。从指数运行情况看，连续七个月实现环比上升，且好于去年同期水平。 分行业看，得益于全球新能源产业快速发展，以及国内高技术制造业持续保持扩张，有色金属价格指数继续走高，环比上涨1.4%。随着冬季取暖需求季节 性增长及部分农产品供应偏紧等影响，能源价格指数和农产品价格指数止跌反弹，环比分别上涨1.2%和0.9%。 总体来看，大宗商品市场景气水平继续回升，保持稳中向好态势。这表明在国家各项稳经济措施的协同发力下，国内经济的内生动力和韧性正稳步增强，新 旧动能转换进一步加快，为实现全年经济增长目标提供了有力支撑。 在中国物流与采购联合会重点监测的50种大宗商品中，11月价格环比上涨的大宗商品有25种。其中碳酸锂、焦炭和瓦楞纸涨幅居前，较上月分别上涨15%、 7.2%和7.1%。 ...

Core Insights - China's agricultural product exports reached nearly 600 billion yuan in the first ten months of this year, with 838 categories exported to 223 countries and regions, indicating a simultaneous increase in export scale, variety, and market coverage, which supports stable foreign trade and benefits people's livelihoods [1] Group 1 - The Yellow River Basin, an important agricultural region in China, saw exports of agricultural products amounting to 178.1 billion yuan in the first ten months, with new products like milk protein, fresh vegetables, and selenium sand melons being exported to Central Asia and the Middle East [3] - A training session on compliance and international market access rules was held in Yinchuan, attended by nearly 100 representatives from over 70 agricultural product companies, aimed at providing professional support for agricultural exports [3] - The deputy director of Yinchuan Customs emphasized the need for companies to understand and master the technical regulations and standards of target markets to expand export shares and diversify markets, highlighting the importance of quality control from the source [5] Group 2 - To address the challenges of differentiated agricultural product exports and unblock key bottlenecks in international trade, customs authorities are conducting specialized seminars nationwide to provide precise services, facilitating the global reach of Chinese agricultural products [7]

生猪产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月5日 朱迪 70015979 | 期货指标 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 王力合约基左 | -82 | -240 | 155 | 64.58% | | | 生猪2605 | 11870 | 11925 | -22 | -0.46% | 元/吨 | | 生猪2601 | 11385 | 11490 | -105 | -0.91% | | | 生猪1-5价差 | -485 | -435 | -50 | -11.49% | | | 主力合约持仓 | 90529 | 91758 | -1229 | -1.34% | | | 仓单 | 85 | 0 | 85 | #DIV/0! | 主 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跌 | 当地升贴水 | 单位 | | 河南 | 11300 | 11250 | 50.0 | 0 | | | 山东 | 11250 | ...

研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/05 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | 淀粉 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/28 | 2090 | 2240 | 2210 | 2440 | -4 | 45 | 259 | 2700 | 2850 | 139 | -29 | | 2025/12/01 | 2120 | 2240 | 2210 | 2440 | 4 | 45 | 252 | 2700 | 2850 | 163 | -47 | | 2025/12/02 | 2120 | 2240 | 2210 | 2430 | -3 | 35 | 249 | 2700 | 2850 | 159 | -47 | | 2025/12/03 | 2120 | 2250 | 2210 | 2450 | -9 | 50 | 247 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, the macro - environment in the fourth quarter is still friendly to risk assets. It is recommended that investors maintain a balanced allocation, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and wait for opportunities to increase positions in stock indices on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas Macro**: US "Black Friday" and "Cyber Monday" online sales reached record highs, but consumers preferred daily necessities and more people borrowed short - term debt for shopping. The weak demand dragged down the US ISM manufacturing PMI in November. Dollar liquidity is becoming the main line of major assets in the next quarter, and the market expects the Fed to discuss balance - sheet expansion around December to ease liquidity constraints [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, the profit margin of industrial enterprises continued to be under pressure due to weak domestic demand. However, policy - based financial instruments and special bonds promoted the significant recovery of enterprise investment and recruitment forward - looking indicators. In November, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, and both supply and demand improved marginally. The construction business activity index also increased. The domestic economy maintains a weak and stable pattern, and the guiding role of policies on expectations is strengthening [6]. 3.2 Asset Views - The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged. It is recommended to maintain long - position opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and wait for opportunities to increase positions in stock indices on dips [6]. 3.3 View Highlights 3.3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume cannot support an upward attack, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to the situation of incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The market sentiment is stable, and the volatility is somewhat differentiated. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the liquidity of the options market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The sentiment at the long end is still weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to the implementation of monetary policies [7]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Geopolitical and trade tensions have eased, and precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policies, and the global equity market trend [7]. 3.3.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward driving force due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [7]. 3.3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price fluctuates. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to policy - level dynamics [7]. - **Steel**: The demand is under pressure in the off - season, and the price on the futures market has limited upward momentum. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, iron - water production, and other factors [7]. - **Coke**: The supply - demand situation is slightly loose, and the price is still under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply remains at a low level, and coal mines continue to accumulate inventory. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The supply and demand are both weak, and there is limited upward momentum. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel tendering [7]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The cost transfer is not smooth, and inventory accumulates. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to cost prices and foreign quotes [7]. - **Glass**: The demand is still weak, and supply needs to be reduced. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply remains at a low level, and there is still an oversupply. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to soda ash inventory [7]. 3.3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: The expectation of Fed rate cuts is fluctuating, and the copper price is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and domestic demand recovery [7]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and the alumina price continues to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [7]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to macro - risks and zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: The delivery of LME lead has slowed down, and the lead price may gradually stop falling. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: There are environmental disturbances in Indonesian MHP production enterprises, and the nickel price fluctuates. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to macro - and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and supply [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Driven by the rebound of the nickel price, the stainless - steel futures market has recovered. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment has warmed up, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to the复产 expectation in Wa State and demand improvement [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The oversupply pressure remains, and the silicon price fluctuates. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to supply - side复产 and policy changes [7]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations are fluctuating, and polysilicon is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to supply - side复产 and domestic photovoltaic policies [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by demand expectations, the lithium price has strengthened again. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical premium is fluctuating, and the supply pressure continues. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [9]. - **LPG**: The import cost has rebounded, and the spot support continues. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is recovering towards the spot price after an oversold situation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to geopolitics and crude oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to crude oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: The expected coastal unloading is high, and the inland supply - demand provides phased support. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to macro - energy and overseas actual shutdown dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The off - season storage is progressing steadily, and the futures market is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to enterprise inventory de - stocking and commercial storage progress [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic supply - demand pattern has not significantly weakened, but expectations are suppressing sentiment. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and device disturbances [9]. - **PX**: The short - term cost guidance is limited, and PX has a strong profit under its independent logic. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and US - Asia aromatics blending for oil [9]. - **PTA**: The market lacks new drivers and follows cost fluctuations. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and downstream polyester load support [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The upstream cost provides support, but the off - season demand cannot change the short - fiber game pattern. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to downstream yarn factory purchasing rhythm and season conversion [9]. - **Bottle Chip**: The price volatility has narrowed, and the trading atmosphere has slightly declined. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to bottle - chip enterprise production - reduction target implementation and new device commissioning [9]. - **Propylene**: The spot is strong, and PL is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [9]. - **PP**: The oil price has rebounded, and PP still needs to pay attention to maintenance changes. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [9]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance support is limited, and plastic is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [9]. - **Styrene**: The liquidity is slightly tight, and styrene is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak expectations, PVC is cautiously weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and caustic soda is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. 3.3.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: The downward pressure is increasing. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: The discount of South American soybeans is cost - effective, and attention should be paid to Chinese ship - buying. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The supply - demand game intensifies, and the futures price hits a new high. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to demand, macro - situation, and weather [9]. - **Pigs**: The supply - demand is loose, and the pig price is running weakly. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream buying is light, and the futures market is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to production area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: There is insufficient bullish driving force in the futures market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: The concentrated listing of new cotton suppresses the short - term price, but the long - term valuation repair is still expected. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to production and demand [9]. - **Sugar**: The downward pressure is increasing marginally. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to imports and Northern Hemisphere production [9]. - **Pulp**: Driven by shutdown news, the pulp price continues to rise but maintains a wide - range oscillation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated price fluctuations [9]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production dynamics [9]. - **Log**: New Zealand has entered a reduced - shipping stage, and the medium - term supply pressure may ease. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to shipping volume and delivery volume [9].

央视网消息：据海关统计，今年前10个月我国农产品出口近6000亿元，出口品类达838种，出口至 223个国家和地区。出口规模、品类丰富度和市场覆盖面同步提升，成为稳外贸、惠民生的重要支撑。 ...

据海关统计，今年前10个月我国农产品出口近6000亿元，出口品类达838种，出口至223个国家和地区。 出口规模、品类丰富度和市场覆盖面同步提升，成为稳外贸、惠民生的重要支撑。 ...

Core Points - The 28th China (Hainan) International Tropical Agricultural Winter Trade Fair opened on December 4, 2025, in Haikou, featuring over 2,000 enterprises from 16 countries and regions [1][3][5] - The theme of this year's fair is "Gathering Agricultural Excellence, Enjoying Free Trade Opportunities," with an exhibition area of 75,000 square meters and nine major exhibition zones [1][3] Group 1: Exhibition Highlights - The fair showcased 24 new products, including "Yuxiang Fubao" mini taro winter melon, powder fruit tomatoes, and DJI agricultural drone T100S, in the debut area [3] - The industry chain exhibition area featured domestic durians, Hainan mangoes, and honey melons, while the agricultural technology area displayed smart agriculture platforms and drone applications [3][7] Group 2: Special Features - Thailand and Pakistan were designated as the dual guest countries, with unique products such as Thai latex pillows, Pakistani rice, Cambodian mangoes, and Malaysian Musang King durians prominently displayed [3][5] - The "Hainan Fresh Products" tasting event highlighted local ingredients like Hainan beef, Tunchang black pigs, and Hainan snapper, allowing attendees to experience the high quality of Hainan's agricultural products [7] Group 3: Supporting Activities - The "Hainan Agricultural Brand Directory (2025)" was officially released, including five regional public brands, 20 "Hainan Fresh Products" brands, 10 enterprise brands, and 20 agricultural product brands [5] - A trade promotion meeting facilitated in-depth discussions between government and enterprises on agricultural industry chain cooperation, resulting in preliminary agreements on several projects [5][7]