1月20日，山东交出了2025年的外贸成绩单：进出口总值实现3.53万亿元人民币，同比增长4.5%，占全国进 出口总值的7.8%，对全国外贸增长的贡献达到9.1%。 在国际贸易保护主义抬头、地缘冲突加剧的当下，山东外贸的稳健增长，既是区域经济的 "压舱石"，更是 中国经济韧性的生动注脚。 制造业出海"弯道超车" 105项机电产品出口全国第一 同时，随着高质量共建"一带一路"持续走深走实，对共建国家贸易占山东进出口、出口、进口的比重分别 达到64.1%、57.3%、74.7%，均较2024年有所提升。比如，2025年，山东58.5%的汽车出口销往非洲市场， 成为当地的"硬通货"。 将维度拉长来看，在"十四五"期间，山东积极开展"万企出海 鲁贸全球"市场开拓行动进行多元化布局，其 中对东盟、拉美、非洲年均增速分别为17%、9.7%、15%。这些曾经的"小众市场"，都已成为山东外贸 的"增长引擎"。 放在十年前，提起山东外贸，大家脑海里多半是蔬菜、纺织面料这些"老熟人"。但在2025年，山东外贸的 一项数据彻底颠覆了这种刻板印象：山东机电产品出口首次突破1万亿元。 值得一提的是，按照6位商品编码测算，2025年山东 ...

中新网湖南新闻1月19日电 (何昕懿)如何让村级党群服务中心不仅建得好，更能用得好、活得起来、聚 得起人心？1月19日农历腊月初一，湖南长沙市望城区靖港镇前榜村用一场年味十足的"干塘迎新春"活 动，给出了生动答案。活动以党群服务中心为阵地，将其真正转化为聚人气、暖人心的"乡村会客厅"， 让阵地在实践中"活"了起来。 热闹的"靖港年货市集"，游客把地道年味带回家。 这次干塘摸鱼活动在前榜村村民家的两口鱼塘展开，鱼塘占地约八亩，预计有2000多斤鱼。上午11时， 鱼塘边早已热闹起来，身着防水服的游客们摩拳擦掌。随着主持人的一声吆喝，摸鱼大战正式开始，一 条条二三十斤的草鱼、雄鱼被大伙合力"擒获"，举出水面时引发阵阵欢呼。"所有烦恼，一摸到鱼都没 有了！" 鱼塘的另一侧，是热闹的"靖港年货市集"。新峰蘑菇、福塘皇菊、柏叶红薯粉条等农特产品琳琅满目， 在体验"摸鱼"之余，顺手就能把地道的年味带回家。现场还准备了靖港镇文旅地图，供游客领取，方便 大家接下来继续畅游靖港、感受更多乡土风情。 从农产品好物展推区出来后，游客们又聚到了党群服务中心里。这边，望城区书协的老师正带着大家一 起写春联、写"福"字，把美好的新春祝福送 ...

Core Viewpoint - A Chinese importer has purchased approximately 60,000 tons of Canadian canola seeds, marking the first transaction since October of the previous year, following Canadian Prime Minister Carney's visit to China [1][4]. Group 1: Trade Developments - The deal is expected to be shipped on a Panamax bulk carrier after March, coinciding with the anticipated reduction of tariffs on Canadian canola seeds [1]. - Following the visit, it is reported that the comprehensive tariff on Canadian canola seeds will be reduced to about 15% by March [4]. - The Canadian government anticipates that the value of canola seed exports to China will reach nearly CAD 5 billion (approximately RMB 25.77 billion) in 2024, although this figure is expected to decline to less than half by 2025 due to trade tensions [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The return of Chinese buyers to the Canadian market has led to a 2.4% drop in canola meal futures prices on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, reaching a new low in over a year, indicating market expectations of increased supply [1]. - The Australian canola seeds have filled the market gap left by Canada, creating uncertainty for Australian exporters as Canadian canola returns [2]. Group 3: Industry Perspectives - The Canadian agriculture and food trade alliance (CAFTA) has welcomed the recent developments, viewing them as a significant step towards restoring stability in bilateral trade relations with China [5]. - Industry leaders express optimism that improved market access to China will directly influence Canadian farmers' planting decisions and long-term investments [5]. - The Canadian Canola Council and the Canadian Canola Growers Association view the agreement as a milestone and are hopeful for the complete restoration of canola seed trade [6].

Core Insights - The "Good Products Shandong: Quality Agricultural Products Enter Alibaba" event was launched in Hangzhou, aiming to connect Shandong's high-quality agricultural products with e-commerce giants, enhancing market reach and brand influence [2][11] Group 1: Event Overview - The event gathered around 150 representatives from government and enterprises, utilizing various formats such as research visits, promotional matchmaking, and exhibitions to facilitate connections [2] - The collaboration between Shandong and Alibaba is described as a "strong alliance" that leverages Alibaba's vast user base and operational capabilities to support the upward movement of Shandong agricultural products [3] Group 2: Agricultural Highlights - Shandong is recognized as a major agricultural production base in China, with notable products including Shouguang vegetables, Yantai apples, Zhangqiu scallions, and Jinxing garlic, all known for their quality and reputation [3] - The event featured a product promotion session showcasing various regional specialties, including seafood like Jiaodong sea cucumber and Lushan oysters, as well as local agricultural products such as Yantai apples and Qingdao cabbage [8] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The event included discussions on agricultural new retail, smart supply chains, and digital agriculture, aiming to expand the reach of "Shandong-branded" products nationwide [4] - Alibaba's Taobao and Tmall platforms plan to enhance support for Shandong's agricultural products through initiatives like the "Origin Selection: Taste of the Rivers and Mountains" marketing program, focusing on traffic support, live streaming, content marketing, and ecosystem collaboration [4] Group 4: Networking and Collaboration - A face-to-face meeting was held between Shandong agricultural enterprises interested in joining Alibaba's platform and Alibaba's business line leaders to discuss cooperation details, platform policies, and resource support [9] - The event also included a tour of Alibaba's ecosystem and digital marketing models, providing insights into e-commerce operations [9] Group 5: Exhibition and Consumer Engagement - The "Good Products Shandong Specialty Agricultural Products Exhibition" was held concurrently, featuring 33 booths showcasing regional products from 16 cities in Shandong, creating an immersive experience for consumers [10] - The event is seen as a new platform for digital marketing of Shandong agricultural products, fostering a collaborative development model among government and enterprises [11]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of extreme weather events on various commodity markets, particularly focusing on agricultural products, natural gas, and metals due to the ongoing weak La Niña phenomenon and its expected transition to neutral conditions by March 2026 [1][2][4]. Key Insights and Arguments Weather Patterns and Their Impacts - The weak La Niña event is expected to end in March 2026, transitioning to neutral conditions, with a rising probability of El Niño starting in July 2026, reaching nearly 60% by November [1][4]. - Global warming is anticipated to prevent widespread cold winters, although localized cold spells may occur [2]. - The solar cycle's downward trend may increase the risk of extreme weather events over the next three to five years, with frequent switches between La Niña and El Niño phenomena [2]. Agricultural Market Impacts - **Soybeans**: Increased expectations for South American soybean production, with U.S. soybean prices projected to remain between 1,000 and 1,150 cents per bushel, unlikely to break the upper limit [1][5]. - **Palm Oil**: Minimal impact from weak La Niña on palm oil production, with Malaysian production recovering. Short-term bullish outlook for palm oil prices in the first half of 2026, but potential reductions in palm fruit production could occur if a strong El Niño develops [1][5]. - **Wheat**: Delayed sowing in domestic wheat may lead to growth pressures, with increased risks of cold spells and spring droughts. This could elevate new wheat prices in April-May 2026, potentially resonating with corn prices, which are expected to trend upward [1][5]. Natural Gas Market Dynamics - The U.S. natural gas market is influenced by temperature fluctuations, with November 2026 expected to be cold but warming in December, leading to significant consumption volatility [6]. - European natural gas inventories are low, with actual consumption showing a year-on-year decline, leading to downward pressure on prices [6]. - A global LNG supply increase is anticipated in 2026, with new projects in the U.S. and Qatar expected to support U.S. natural gas markets [3][7]. Metal Markets and Weather Effects - The La Niña phenomenon is affecting black metal markets through supply and demand dynamics. Warmer winters are reducing heating and electricity demand, leading to a decline in coal prices [9]. - Brazilian iron ore shipments are expected to continue increasing, exerting pressure on iron ore prices [9]. - The impact of extreme weather on non-ferrous metals includes risks from heavy rainfall and drought, affecting mining operations in regions like Indonesia and Chile [10]. Additional Important Insights - The transition to neutral weather conditions post-March 2026 may lead to increased volatility in commodity prices due to the unpredictable nature of weather patterns [4]. - The interplay between agricultural and energy markets, particularly in terms of pricing and production, is highlighted, with potential for significant price movements based on weather-related supply changes [5][6]. - The need for monitoring extreme weather impacts on mining operations and supply chains is emphasized, particularly in resource-rich regions vulnerable to climate variability [10].

【行情分析】： 农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/20 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2026/01/13 | 2160 | 2290 | 2240 | 2440 | 6 | 0 | 372 | 2750 | 2800 | 94 | -50 | | 2026/01/14 | 2160 | 2290 | 2240 | 2440 | 18 | 0 | 379 | 2750 | 2800 | 112 | -50 | | 2026/01/15 | 2180 | 2290 | 2240 | 2450 | -5 | 10 | 383 | 2750 | 2800 | 90 | -70 | | 2026/01/16 | 2180 | 2290 | 2240 | 2450 | 9 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - As of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 2%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous week and exceeding the 1.7% reported in the same period last year [1]. - Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 are expected to decline by 3% to 105 million tons, while the soybean crush volume is expected to increase to 60 million tons. Total soybean supply is expected to rise by 5% to 183.79 million tons, while demand is expected to fall by 1%. The ending inventory of soybean meal is expected to surge by 241% to 15.37 million tons [1]. - Brazil exported 1,307,357.38 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of January, with the daily average export volume increasing by 145% compared to the same period last year [1]. - China's edible vegetable oil imports in December were 670,000 tons, up 4.9% year - on - year. The cumulative imports from January to December were 6.94 million tons, up 3.2% year - on - year [1]. 3) Section Summaries Overnight Market Information - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest**: As of last Thursday, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 2%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous week and higher than last year's 1.7%. Mato Grosso led the progress, while Parana lagged due to cold and cloudy weather [1]. - **Brazilian Soybean Exports and Crush**: In 2026, Brazilian soybean exports are expected to drop 3% to 105 million tons, while the crush volume will increase to 60 million tons. Total supply will rise 5% to 183.79 million tons, and demand will fall 1% to 168.42 million tons. The output of soybean meal is expected to increase by 2% to 47.4 million tons, and the export volume will increase by 6% to 24.7 million tons. The ending inventory of soybean meal will surge by 241% to 15.37 million tons. The output of soybean oil will increase by 3% to 11.7 million tons, exports will fall by 19% to 1.1 million tons, and domestic consumption will increase by 3% [1]. - **Brazilian January Soybean Exports**: Brazil exported 1,307,357.38 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of January, with a daily average of 118,850.67 tons, a 145% increase compared to January last year [1]. - **China's Vegetable Oil Imports**: In December, China's edible vegetable oil imports were 670,000 tons, up 4.9% year - on - year. Cumulative imports from January to December were 6.94 million tons, up 3.2% year - on - year. December soybean oil imports were 10,000 tons, up 23.6% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to December were 350,000 tons, up 22.5% year - on - year. December palm oil imports were 280,000 tons, up 13% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to December were 2.57 million tons, up 8.2% year - on - year. December rapeseed and mustard oil imports were 220,000 tons, up 2.9% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to December were 2.13 million tons, up 13.1% year - on - year [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 13 to January 19, 2026 are provided [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Markets**: Geopolitical risks, such as Trump's tariff policies and statements regarding Greenland, along with the upcoming Cook hearing, are influencing market risk - appetite. These factors are causing increased volatility in precious metals, US stock index futures, and other financial instruments. For example, the uncertainty around the Cook hearing and Trump's actions are leading to concerns about the Fed's independence and future inflation [11][14]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities are facing various supply - demand situations. In the agricultural sector, South American soybean production is expected to be bountiful, while in the metal and energy sectors, factors like production changes, inventory levels, and geopolitical events are affecting prices. For instance, the potential release of Russian gasoline exports and the production adjustments of First Quantum Minerals in the copper market [32][52][45]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - **News**: Powell will attend the Cook hearing. Geopolitical risks and Trump's tariff policies have increased market risk aversion, driving up precious metals prices [11]. - **Investment Advice**: Short - term precious metals may experience increased volatility. With the gold - silver ratio at a low level, there are opportunities to go long [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Powell's attendance at the Cook case hearing and Trump's ambiguous statement about Greenland are increasing geopolitical risks. The potential dismissal of Cook may raise concerns about the Fed's independence [13][14]. - **Investment Advice**: During the US stock earnings season, volatility is expected to increase, and the US stock market is likely to oscillate at high levels [15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Premier Li Qiang held a symposium, emphasizing high - quality development and the implementation of more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. China's GDP in Q4 2025 increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the narrowing of price declines has boosted nominal GDP growth [16][18]. - **Investment Advice**: Hold long positions in stock index futures [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: December economic data was mostly below expectations, with a pattern of weakening overall, strong supply and weak demand, and domestic demand weaker than external demand. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and the probability of continued weakening after the oscillation is relatively high [20][22]. - **Investment Advice**: Be cautious when chasing up or betting on rebounds. Consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - **News**: The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is stable with a slight upward trend. Downstream steel mills have not responded to the coke price increase proposed by coke enterprises. Short - term spot prices are supported by downstream replenishment, but the upward momentum in the futures market is limited [24]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term oscillations [24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - **News**: In 2025, China's infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, and real estate investment decreased by 17.2%. The terminal demand for steel products remains weak, and the fundamentals do not support a significant rebound in steel prices [25][28][29]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt an oscillatory approach to steel prices. Hedge inventory at high prices if there is a rebound [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - **News**: As of last Thursday, the Brazilian 25/26 soybean harvest rate was 2%. South American soybean production is expected to be abundant. Domestic soybean meal inventory has decreased but remains at a historically high level [31][32]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect weak oscillations in domestic and international futures prices [33]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: Lead inventories in five major social warehouses increased. The low - inventory risk has been alleviated, and the fundamentals are weakening [34][35]. - **Investment Advice**: Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [37]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: The zinc price is oscillating. Social inventories are rising, but the absolute increase is not large. Geopolitical risks need to be watched out for [38][39]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for short - term single - side trading, and do not chase short positions. Wait and see for both monthly spread and internal - external arbitrage [39]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: The second - phase project of Qingtao Energy's solid - state battery in Chengdu is progressing smoothly. The futures trading rules of lithium carbonate have been adjusted. The demand side is showing signs of strength, but the price transmission issue needs attention [40][41][42]. - **Investment Advice**: Focus on long - position opportunities at low prices after the trading volume and volatility stabilize [43]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - **News**: South Mining Group focuses on gold and copper investments. First Quantum Minerals has lowered its copper production guidance. Geopolitical risks and macro - economic uncertainties are affecting copper prices [44][45][47]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach. Look for long - position opportunities at low prices in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage [48]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - **News**: The LME tin price is in a contango. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the tin futures delivery warehouses. Supply uncertainties exist, and demand is weak [49][50][51]. - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to December customs data, processing fees in Yunnan refineries, and the recovery of consumption [51]. 3.2.9 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - **News**: Russia may lift the gasoline export ban in February. As the Iranian situation cools down, the risk premium of oil prices is expected to decrease [52][53]. - **Investment Advice**: The short - term upward driving force for oil prices is weakening [54]. 3.2.10 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - **News**: The weekly production of domestic liquefied petroleum gas increased slightly. The external market is relatively strong, but the upward space is limited [55]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect price sideways oscillations [56]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - **News**: Asphalt refinery inventories decreased, while social inventories increased. Terminal demand is weakening, and the market is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival [56]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term weak oscillations in asphalt prices [57]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - **News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices are rising. The increase in styrene is due to unexpected maintenance and export growth. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and US tariff policies [60]. - **Investment Advice**: Focus on long - position opportunities at low prices, but beware of risks such as excessive pure benzene imports and weak terminal purchasing [61]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - **News**: The demand for urea from a sample of compound fertilizer producers in Shandong decreased. Urea production is expected to increase, and inventories are decreasing at a slower pace. Policy and demand factors are influencing prices [62][63]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term oscillations in urea prices. The average price may decline in the next two weeks. Consider long - position opportunities in the 05 contract after the demand recovers [64]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - **News**: The domestic PVC powder market price is slightly weak. The export tax - rebate policy will be cancelled in April, and domestic demand is expected to weaken before the Spring Festival [65][66]. - **Investment Advice**: Be bearish on PVC in the short term [66]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - **News**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. Inventories are high, and the market is under pressure [67][68][69]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect the caustic soda market to be under pressure before the Spring Festival [69].

点击按钮▲立即收听 " 拉尼亚更像手法复杂的幕后之手，悄然拨动全球经济的琴弦 —— 你手中的咖啡价格、一顿火锅的成本，都将与它隐隐相连。 " 文 /巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 大寒，是我国大部分地区一年中最冷的时候。 然而，降温在南方却来得意外突然：1月19日，冰冻、寒潮、暴雪三预警齐发，长三角地区的不少学校已经开始停课。就在前几天，市民们还在晒 太阳，慵懒又温暖。 当我们站在2026年的起点，回顾过去半年的天气，用一句热梗来形容再合适不过了："就像跳楼机"，突然升空又急速落地。 夏天全民的"高温记忆"尚未消散，北极全年平均气温已创下自1900年以来的最高纪录；国庆后，一场突袭全国的急促寒潮，又为多地按下"速冻 键"。 就在人们以为凛冬已至，12月的气温却再度"跳跃"。冬至前，新疆、内蒙古等地暴雪纷飞的同时，不少 南方沿海城市的气温竟重回20℃以上，整 个2025年的平均气温，创下 1961年以来历史新高。 很快，回暖的势头就将被元旦前后的一轮冷空气打断，长江中下游地区迎来了降 温雨雪天 气…… 在这剧烈的起伏中，国家气候中心揭开了幕后"推手"之一的面纱：自2025年10月起，我国已进入"拉尼娜状态"。 ...

禽畜养殖下游补充库存，深加工消费同比下降 截至1月15日，生猪自繁自养模式下的养殖利润为25.77元／头，较上周升高26元／头，外购仔猪模式下 养殖利润为-100.5元／头，较上周升高29元／头。蛋鸡养殖利润-0.04元／斤，略高于前周的-0.28元／ 斤。饲料厂通过拍卖玉米补充库存，物理库存天数以上涨为主，但是还未出现集中补库的情况。截至1 月15日，全国饲料企业平均库存可用天数为31.15天，较上周增加1.05天，环比上涨3.49%，同比下跌 6.71%。 截至1月14日，全国12个地区96家主要玉米加工企业库存总量为359万吨，环比增加1.41%，虽然库存增 加，但还是近3年同期最低的，东北地区深加工企业继续提价收购，华北地区玉米到货量平稳。1月8日 至1月14日，全国149家主要深加工企业共消耗玉米135.59万吨，比上周减少2.59万吨，低于2025年同期 的141万吨。截至1月9日，黑龙江地区玉米制乙醇利润在-742元／吨，低于2025年同期的-377元／吨， 玉米淀粉加工利润在-79元／吨，低于2025年同期的5元／吨。尽管淀粉价格小幅上涨，但是玉米价格偏 强，加工亏损扩大，淀粉库存高，下游采购 ...