1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market is significantly affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. This has led to increased market volatility, with risk - averse assets such as gold and the US dollar rising, and stock markets showing mixed trends. - Commodity prices are also highly influenced by the geopolitical situation. Energy prices have soared, and different commodities have different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and geopolitical impacts. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 2 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.4, higher than the expected 51.8. The Middle East situation led to increased risk - averse sentiment, pushing up the prices of the US dollar and gold. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations decreased, and US bond yields rose nearly 10bp. Gold is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, while silver is weaker [11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's statement on the Iran war did not set a time frame, and the market risk - averse sentiment recovered, causing the US dollar index to continue rising. It is recommended to be bullish on the US dollar in the short term [16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 2 - month manufacturing PMI continued to expand for two months, but the input price index soared. The Middle East geopolitical risk led to market inflation concerns, and the US stock market was expected to be volatile and weak. It is recommended to wait and see [19][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - share trading volume increased and was differentiated, with the turnover exceeding 3 trillion yuan. Affected by the war between the US, Israel, and Iran, oil, gas, and military stocks rose, supporting the index. It is recommended to reduce long - position strategies in stock index futures and wait for the situation of the Iran war to become clear [23][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 19 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The prices of precious metals and chemicals rose, and the market's expectation of reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts during the Two Sessions increased slightly, causing treasury bond futures to rise. It is expected that the bond market will be volatile before the Two Sessions and that the impact of supply shocks after the sessions needs to be noted [25][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The CMI index in February decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The sales of heavy - duty trucks in February decreased compared with the previous year. Black metals continued to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and it is recommended to view steel prices from a volatile perspective in the short term [28][30]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market was weakly stable. After the Spring Festival, the supply recovered quickly, but the terminal demand had not started significantly. The market was in a volatile pattern, and the policy changes around the Two Sessions and the downstream resumption of work rhythm need to be noted [32][33]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in the Ordos region was strong, with prices rising slightly. The port price was expected to continue rising, but the high inventory of power plants restricted the upward elasticity of coal prices. The short - term coal price was expected to be strong [34][35]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The terminal demand was slowly recovering, but the iron - making water recovery speed was expected to be slow due to inventory pressure. The supply was at a high level, and the impact of the Middle East conflict on Iranian iron ore production and sales was uncertain. The iron ore price was expected to continue in a volatile market [36][37]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased. Market institutions lowered the estimated output of Brazilian soybeans. The US weekly export inspection was better than expected. The soybean meal futures price was expected to be volatile, and the purchase of US soybeans, import policies, and reserve dynamics in China need to be continued to be monitored [38][40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil inventory increased. The palm oil production in Malaysia decreased in February. The rise in the oil market was mainly affected by the external market. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking amplitude of palm oil, the impact of Australian rapeseed on rapeseed oil, and the final RFS rule of the US in March for soybean oil [41][43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The national average corn price was generally strong. The low inventory of ports, slow release of farmers' selling pressure, and tight supply of high - quality corn in the Northeast provided support for prices. However, the risk of concentrated selling of ground - stored corn in the Northeast, weak demand from the breeding and deep - processing industries, and potential wheat auctions may suppress prices. It is recommended to trade according to the trend and not to chase high prices [44][45]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The net short position of US sugar decreased for the first time in four weeks. The sugar production in India and Thailand was lower than expected. The sugar production in Guangxi was delayed. The domestic sugar market was expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [46][51]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The key copper export route in the Congo was interrupted due to a bridge collapse. The copper price was affected by the complex Middle East situation and short - term fundamental concerns. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips in the medium term [52][54]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The profit of SQM in the fourth quarter increased. The production of lithium carbonate in March was expected to increase, and the demand also showed a high - growth trend. However, there were potential risks in the power battery demand. It is recommended to be bullish in the short term and pay attention to price corrections after the supply increases in the medium term [55][57]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead cash - to - 3 - month spread was at a discount, and the domestic lead inventory decreased slightly. The lead price was expected to rebound from a low level, and it is recommended to consider mid - term long positions [58][60]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc cash - to - 3 - month spread was at a discount, and the domestic zinc inventory increased. The zinc price was affected by the rise in natural gas and European electricity prices. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions, hold existing long positions, and consider taking profits on rallies [61][62]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The global tin market was in a long - term structural tight - balance. The supply was restricted by various factors, and the demand was driven by emerging industries. The short - term price was affected by high inventory, and it is recommended to pay attention to macro and supply - side news [63][65]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US will take measures to ease the rise in oil prices. The statements of the US and Iran on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz were inconsistent. The oil price was expected to have a high upward risk before the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal passage [66][68]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Qatar's energy facilities were attacked, and the production of liquefied natural gas was suspended. The LPG market was expected to be highly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [69][71]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries and social inventories increased. The asphalt price was mainly driven by geopolitical risks and crude oil costs. The short - term price was expected to follow the trend of crude oil, and the development of the US - Iran situation and OPEC+ production policies need to be monitored [72][73]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The RCF tender was completed. The domestic urea supply was abundant, and the demand was increasing. The market was optimistic about the spring - plowing season, but policy intervention may occur if the price rises too fast. It is recommended to replenish inventory according to actual needs and view the futures market from a volatile perspective [74][75]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market price was slightly lower. The supply was at a high level, and the demand recovery needed time. The market was expected to be in a volatile pattern, with a bias towards strength under geopolitical conflicts [76][77]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong was stable. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand support was limited in the short term. The caustic soda market was expected to be in a low - level and weak - volatile pattern [78][80]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports increased. The rise in the styrene price was mainly due to the increase in crude oil prices. The supply and demand of styrene were expected to improve marginally, and it is recommended to pay attention to the intensity of the conflict and potential credit risks [81][83]. 3.2.21 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Five major global shipping giants suspended shipping. The Middle East geopolitical situation led to a full - contract limit - up of European - route futures. The current rise in the market was mainly driven by sentiment, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment turns [84][85].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (Bean No. 1): No rating indicated [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Palm Oil: No clear rating indication from the given star symbol [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal: Ratings indicated by star symbols but not clearly defined in a standard way [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Live Pigs: No clear rating indication from the given star symbol [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor) [1] Core Views - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as policies, weather, and geopolitical situations. Different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and investors need to pay attention to relevant information and risks [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean (Bean No. 1) - After a recent rise, the domestic soybean main contract saw a significant reduction in positions and a price pull - back. The spot market is waiting for the state - reserve auction. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has been hovering. The U.S. soybean is approaching a technical resistance level. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Middle East situation and the risk of price fluctuations caused by the reduction in positions [2] Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Rapeseed Meal - For rapeseed, after the easing of China - Canada relations, the 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal was removed, and a 5.9% anti - dumping duty was imposed on Canadian rapeseed. The rapeseed crushing profit has improved in the short term, and imports have increased. The short - term negative factors for rapeseed meal futures have been digested. For soybeans, the U.S. soybean was strong last week, reaching a nearly 20 - month high. South American weather is favorable for the new - season soybean harvest. Policy disturbances are significant, and the soybean/soybean meal inventory has increased. The U.S. biodiesel policy is to be released by the end of March, and the market shows a situation where oil is stronger than meal [3] Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - Due to the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, international crude oil soared, and domestic soybean and palm oils rose. The U.S. soybean and soybean oil are strong, and the supply - demand balance of U.S. soybeans in 26/27 is expected to tighten. The U.S. soybean and soybean oil are approaching technical resistance levels. The domestic soybean cost increase was small last week. Palm oil export and production in Malaysia decreased, and Indonesia raised the palm oil export tax. The domestic palm oil import loss has narrowed. Rapeseed crushing profit is good in the near - term but in loss for distant - delivery contracts. The inventory of soybean oil and palm oil is higher than last year, while rapeseed oil inventory is lower [4] Corn - The平仓 prices at Beigang ports increased, and some northeast and Shandong acquisition enterprises raised their purchase prices. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong corn deep - processing enterprises decreased. The national corn sales progress has reached 63%. The north - south tower inventory is at a low level, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has decreased significantly. The U.S. corn is in a bottom - oscillating and strengthening trend. The Dalian corn futures are expected to be strong in the short term [6] Live Pigs - The live pig futures continued to decline with increased positions, and the main contract hit a new low. The spot price continued to fall, and the pig price is at a historical bear - market bottom. The出栏 weight is high, and the inventory pressure needs to be relieved. Potential support factors include second - fattening, slaughter and warehousing, and frozen meat purchase. The far - month contract's valuation is expected to increase due to capacity reduction. It is recommended to buy far - month contracts at low prices after the premium of far - month contracts over the spot and near - month contracts narrows [7] Eggs - The egg spot price in most provinces increased, and the trading floor was slightly adjusted. The laying - hen inventory increased slightly in February, and the chick - replenishment volume was stable month - on - month but decreased by about 3% year - on - year. In the long run, the inventory is in a downward trend. After the post - Spring Festival price correction, the low chick - replenishment in 25 is expected to drive the spot price up, and it is advisable to buy at low prices on the trading floor [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation has intensified, and the commodity market may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The resonance of the US dollar and crude oil remains strong. The short - term safe - haven sentiment will boost precious metals, and the subsequent trend depends on the development of the war. Different commodity sectors have different trends affected by geopolitical factors and fundamentals [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Overall market**: The commodity market rose 3.56% last week, with precious metals leading the rise at 8.55%, followed by non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, and black metals, with increases of 8.55%, 4.53%, 2.14%, and 0.33% respectively. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market rebounded, and the black and energy sectors had large fluctuations. The overall market scale shrank significantly, and all sectors had net capital outflows [1][5] - **Specific varieties**: The top - rising varieties were tin, silver, and crude oil, with increases of 23.27%, 16.36%, and 6.01% respectively. The top - falling varieties were coke, coking coal, and PVC, with decreases of 2.76%, 2.45%, and 2.3% respectively [1][5] 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious metals**: Short - term safe - haven sentiment will boost precious metals to continue to run strongly. The subsequent trend depends on whether the war develops towards negotiation or greater intensity [1] - **Non - ferrous metals**: After the intensification of the US - Iran conflict, the resource attribute value of the sector has increased, but the US dollar is supported by oil prices, which suppresses the sector. The domestic post - holiday resumption of work is progressing steadily, but the inventory of the sector remains high. The sector may fluctuate in the short term [2] - **Black metals**: After the holiday, the apparent demand for rebar has rebounded month - on - month, the output remains low, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The iron - making water output has increased, but the steel mill profits are still poor, and the subsequent increase rhythm may be relatively slow. The global shipment of iron ore is strong, and the domestic port inventory continues to accumulate and is at a historical high. The coking coal futures price has a premium over Mongolian coal, and it is difficult to decline significantly in the short term [2] - **Energy**: The US - Iran conflict has escalated to a full - scale military confrontation. Iran has banned ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and international oil prices have risen rapidly. Geopolitical risks will continue to support crude oil prices [2] - **Chemicals**: Iran is an important supplier of high - sulfur fuel oil and methanol. The supply of these two varieties has short - term positive drivers. Rising oil prices drive downstream products in the olefin and polyester industries. The supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol may improve in the second quarter [2] - **Agricultural products**: External policy disturbances are large. Trump's 10% tariff policy has taken effect, which affects China's soybean imports. Rising crude oil prices drive vegetable oils. The export of Malaysian palm oil is weak, and the high - inventory situation is expected to continue. The oil - meal ratio may rise in the short term [3] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive returns last week, with returns ranging from 3.04% to 3.64%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 3,314.52 billion yuan, with a 1.02% increase. The trading volume decreased significantly [34] - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a return of - 0.35%, the soybean meal ETF had a return of 1.05%, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a return of 2.78%, and the silver fund had a return of 13.54%. The total scale of commodity ETFs was 3,550.35 billion yuan, with a 1.24% increase, and the trading volume decreased by 23.55% [34]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton maintains a relatively strong trend, and the subsequent demand expectations remain uncertain. Attention should be paid to the sixth round of Sino - US negotiations [1] - Sugar is in a stage of loose supply and demand. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy, and pay attention to the post - March delivery trend of raw sugar [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - After the festival, the market has not fully recovered, the warehousing speed has slightly slowed down, downstream procurement has increased, and the shipment situation is okay [1] - As of February 26, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports was 538,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.75%. Among them, the inventory in Shandong was 471,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%, the inventory in Jiangsu was about 37,300 tons, and the inventory at other ports was about 29,800 tons [1] - The Middle East conflict over the weekend did not affect the cotton sector, and the impact of Trump's visit to China is uncertain [1] Sugar - As of February 28, 2025/26, India's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume reached 260.896 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.119 million tons; cumulative sugar production (excluding ethanol diversion) was 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.625 million tons; the average sugar yield was 9.44%, a year - on - year increase of 0.13% [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar consumption will be 180.07 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar market surplus will be 1.22 million tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons from the previous forecast [2] - Sugar is in a stage of loose supply and demand. The increase in the price difference between the domestic and foreign markets and the rise in crude oil prices may reduce sugar output. It is recommended to buy at low prices and pay attention to the post - March delivery trend of raw sugar [2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report industry: Apple [1] - Report date: March 2, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The apple market shows a polarization in the sales of high - quality and low - quality goods. High - quality goods are in short supply and may still see price increases, while low - quality goods face pressure to reduce prices for sales volume. Attention should be paid to the circulation of medium - and low - grade goods in the market. The near - month contracts mainly focus on the warehouse receipt cost logic. Due to the firm price of high - quality fruits, the AP2605 contract will mainly fluctuate at a high level, and the willingness of buyers to take delivery directly affects the final trend of the market. The new - season contracts are speculated on weather in advance and should be treated with a bullish mindset [8][23] Group 3: Market Review - In February, the main contract of apple futures, AP605, showed a high - level oscillating trend, fluctuating in the range of 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton. As of the close on February 27, AP605 closed at 9,760 yuan/ton, down 0.76% slightly, with a position of about 129,000 lots. The near - month contract AP603 fluctuated sharply on the last trading day before the delivery month, with the futures price dropping from a high of 9,470 yuan/ton to a minimum of 8,540 yuan/ton. The futures long - position holders seemed to give up taking delivery, with an intraday reduction of 177 lots, and only 34 lots entered the delivery month. The far - month contracts remained strong [10] Group 4: Factor Analysis 4.1 Inventory Apple Sales Polarization - In February, during the Spring Festival consumption peak, the mainstream transaction prices of cold - storage apples were stable with a slight increase. There were large differences among different production areas. High - quality western production areas had smooth sales and strong prices, while some secondary production areas in Shandong had uneven product quality, with relatively light trading and slightly weak prices. The mainstream transaction prices in Gansu increased slightly due to the shortage of high - quality goods. The sales volume in Shaanxi was large during the Spring Festival, and the prices were stable. The overall trading volume in Shandong was average [12] - The apple market continues to be polarized. Merchants prefer high - quality goods over general farmer - produced goods, and the overall trading atmosphere is still average. Merchants in Gansu have a certain enthusiasm for restocking, while the transactions in Shandong and Shaanxi are relatively average. Low - quality goods face pressure to reduce prices for sales volume [13] 4.2 Slow Apple Out - of - Warehouse Rhythm in Main Production Areas - This year's apple storage volume is lower than last year, about 700 - 800 million tons, second only to 2018. The commodity rate and quality have declined significantly, with farmers accounting for about 60%. High - quality goods are mainly in the hands of merchants. After the Spring Festival, the overall out - of - warehouse progress is good compared with previous years but slower than last year. High - quality goods are in short supply, and the polarization between high - and low - quality goods is likely to continue. The sales situation of inventory from March to April directly affects the willingness of buyers to take delivery in subsequent contracts [16] 4.3 Increased Impact of Delivery Rules on Prices - Near - month contracts are mainly based on delivery logic. There is always a game between the value of buyers taking delivery and the cost of sellers' warehouse receipts. The trend of near - month contracts depends more on delivery factors. In 2025, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange revised the "Detailed Rules for Fresh Apple Futures Business", which has had a continuous impact on the futures - spot price system. In the year of "general production reduction + serious decline in high - quality fruit rate" like 2025/26, high - quality goods meeting the futures delivery standards are scarcer, and the cost of apple futures warehouse receipts has increased significantly, directly supporting the contract valuation [19] 4.4 Supply - Side Weather Speculation - Entering the end of March, it is the flowering period of new - season apples, and the market focuses on supply - side weather speculation again. According to the forecast of the National Climate Center, it is expected that in spring (March - May) this year, except for the western part of Guangxi, the southeastern part of Yunnan, and the southwestern part of Guizhou, where the temperature is 0.5 - 1°C lower than the same period of the previous year, the temperature in most other parts of the country is close to or higher than the same period of the previous year. In the past 10 days (from February 20 to March 1), the average temperature in most parts of the country was 2 - 4°C higher than the same period of the previous year, and in some areas such as the northwest, the western part of North China, the southern part of Northeast China, the Sichuan Basin, and Guizhou, it was 5 - 7°C higher. The high temperature in the main production areas in spring 2026 may cause the phenological period of apples to be slightly advanced. An earlier flowering period means a corresponding change in the risk window of late frosts, and it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring and early warning of frost damage during the flowering period. "Cold snaps in a warm winter" are the most important meteorological risks to be guarded against in 2026 [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: South America is expected to have stable and high - yield soybeans, with Brazil's overall high - yield outlook unchanged despite some harvest issues, and Argentina's yield may slightly decrease. The US may increase its soybean planting area in 2026. Overall, the supply pressure is relatively large [7][63][65]. - Demand side: After the high - volume trading of soybean meal in January, the spot market was relatively quiet in February. Future demand depends on the auction of imported soybeans. Terminal demand is relatively stable in the short - to - medium term [7][64][65]. - Outlook: The 05 basis in March may first be stable and then strengthen. The external CBOT soybean may fluctuate at a high level in March. Domestic soybean meal may rise slightly in the short - to - medium term but will face pressure after mid - April when Brazilian soybeans arrive in large quantities [7][64][65]. - Strategy: Spot merchants can expect the basis to be stable first and then strengthen in March. Futures speculators can hold a slightly bullish view in the short - to - medium term and pay attention to key variables [7][66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Upstream: Planting and Export 3.1.1 Soybean Supply - Yield and inventory: The USDA's January report finalized the 2025 US soybean production. The new - season US soybean planting area is expected to increase in 2026. The USDA estimates Brazil's soybean yield in the next season to be 1.8 billion tons and Argentina's to be 48.5 million tons [9]. - Growth progress and quality: Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing, but the overall progress is slow. Argentina has completed sowing, and the crop rating and moisture conditions have changed [10]. - Weather: Brazil is in the harvest peak, and the overall yield is expected to be high. Argentina's rainfall during the holiday has relieved some growth pressure [11]. 3.1.2 Exports of Major Producing Countries - Brazil: The USDA expects Brazil to export 114 million tons of soybeans in the 2025/26 season, with good export prospects. In January, Brazil exported 2.017 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 75.1% [20][21]. - US: The USDA expects the US to export 42.86 million tons of soybeans in the 2025/26 season, a year - on - year decrease of about 16%. The current sales situation is poor, and future exports depend on China's additional purchases [22][26]. 3.2 Midstream: China's Soybean Import and Pressing 3.2.1 China's Soybean Import - Import volume: In December 2025, China imported 8.044 million tons of soybeans. The 2025/26 season (starting from October) cumulative import volume as of December was 25.633 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. It is expected to set a new record in 2026 [35][36]. - Buying and arrival: As of late February, the buying volume in February was 10.518 million tons, and the arrival volume will seasonally decrease, and the port soybean inventory will decline until mid - April [36]. 3.2.2 China's Soybean Pressing and Inventory - Pressing profit: In February, the external CBOT soybean was strong, while the domestic market was relatively weak, and the pressing profit was slightly weak [46]. - Pressing volume and operating rate: As of the week of February 20, the actual operating rate of 111 oil mills was 0.98%, and the actual pressing volume was 30,200 tons. It is expected to recover to a relatively low level after the Spring Festival [46]. - Soybean inventory: As of February 20, the national major oil mills' soybean commercial inventory was 4.9204 million tons, an increase of 7.7% from the previous week. The inventory will enter a destocking stage [47]. 3.3 Downstream: Feed and Livestock Farming 3.3.1 Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory - Inventory: As of February 20, the domestic major oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 772,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 73%. The spot market was quiet in February, and future demand depends on soybean auctions [53]. 3.3.2 Pig Farming - Profit: As of February 27, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 159.65 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was 20.83 yuan/head [57]. - Feed production: In 2025, the national industrial feed production increased by 8.6% year - on - year. Pig feed production increased significantly. The proportion of soybean meal in feed remained the same, and the use of miscellaneous meals increased [58]. 3.3.3 Poultry Farming - Broilers: At the end of February, the price of white - feather broilers was 7.53 yuan/kg, slightly weak. The market supply is sufficient, and the price may continue to decline [61]. - Laying hens: In February, the breeding profit was in a seasonal decline. The laying hen inventory increased slightly at the end of February but is expected to decline in the first half of the year [62]. 3.4 Later Outlook and Strategy - Supply side: South American soybeans are expected to be high - yield, and the US may increase its planting area. The overall supply pressure is large [7][63][65]. - Demand side: The spot market was quiet in February, and future demand depends on soybean auctions. Terminal demand is stable in the short - to - medium term [7][64][65]. - Outlook: The 05 basis in March may first be stable and then strengthen. The external CBOT soybean may fluctuate at a high level in March. Domestic soybean meal may rise slightly in the short - to - medium term but will face pressure after mid - April [7][64][65]. - Strategy: Spot merchants can expect the basis to be stable first and then strengthen in March. Futures speculators can hold a slightly bullish view in the short - to - medium term and pay attention to key variables [7][66]. - Key variables: The frequency and quantity of imported soybean auctions, Brazil's harvest and shipping situation, and Trump's visit to China [7][67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: With rising temperatures and the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the willingness of grass - roots farmers in the production areas to sell grain increases, and market supply may rise. However, only about 30% of the grass - roots grain sources remain after the festival, reducing selling pressure. There is still a sentiment of reluctant selling and price support at the grass - roots level, and port inventories are still at a low level. For substitutes, the wheat price is relatively stable and has no feed substitution advantage over corn. Policy - grain auctions supplement market supply, and the substitution advantage of imported grains such as barley has increased. Future imports may continue to increase in a restorative manner [8][48]. - Demand side: The continuous growth of pig inventory drives the improvement of feed demand. After consumption, the inventory level of feed enterprises is still low. Deep - processing enterprises are deeply in loss in processing profit, with average operating rates and low inventories compared to the same period last year. There is a demand for restocking after the festival [8][48]. - Overall: In the spot market, in March, the purchase and sale of grass - roots corn will gradually resume, and market supply will increase, with possible temporary selling pressure, but the selling pressure will be alleviated. Downstream enterprises and the trading sector still have the demand to increase inventory, and the overall supply - demand pattern may still be tight. It is expected that the spot price of corn in March will mainly fluctuate and strengthen. In the futures market, with only about 30% of the grass - roots grain sources remaining after the festival, supply pressure is reduced, and market sentiment is strong. Contracts 2605/07 may still mainly fluctuate and strengthen. Follow - up attention should be paid to the later grain - selling progress and national policies such as grain投放 [8][48]. - Strategies: (1) Spot enterprises should appropriately restock at low prices; (2) Futures investors should continue to hold long - term long positions [8][48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Spot market: In February, corn prices rose. In the Northeast, prices were weak first and then strong. In North China, prices remained strong. In the sales areas, prices rose steadily. As of February 28, prices in various regions increased compared to the previous month. For example, the price in Harbin increased by 20 yuan/ton, and that in Changchun increased by 50 yuan/ton [10]. - Futures market: As of February 27, the main contract 2605 of Dalian corn futures closed at 2360 yuan/ton, a 3.6% increase from the end of last month [11]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Corn Supply - Grain - selling progress: Affected by the Spring Festival, the grain - selling progress was slow, and the average progress was significantly slower than the same period last year. As of now, the farmers' corn - selling progress is 65%, slower than the same period in different regions. It is expected that the progress will speed up after the Lantern Festival [14]. - Port inventory: In February, the inventory in northern ports decreased slightly, while that in southern ports increased. As of February 27, the total inventory of the four major northern corn - trading ports was 190.03 tons, a 5.35% decrease from the end of last month. The inventory in Guangdong ports (eastern Guangdong) was 85.90 tons, a 110.54% increase from the end of last month [15]. 3.2.2 Domestic Substitutes - Wheat: As of February 28, the national average corn price was 2364 yuan/ton, and the average wheat price was 2528 yuan/ton. The wheat market was strong before the Spring Festival and stable after the festival. The market has shifted from pre - festival stocking - driven to post - festival off - season operation, and the market has gradually entered a rational adjustment stage [17]. 3.2.3 Imported Substitute Grains - Import data: In December, the import of grains was 10.86 million tons, a 6.0% year - on - year increase. In 2025, the cumulative import of grains was 140.56 million tons, a 10.8% year - on - year decrease. Different grains had different import trends. The import advantage of other grains has increased, and future imports may continue to increase [21][27]. 3.2.4 Feed Demand - Feed production: In 2025, the total output of the national industrial feed was 342.253 million tons, an 8.6% increase from the previous year. Different types of feed had different growth rates. - Pig production capacity: According to different data sources, the inventory of sows of reproductive age showed different trends. Overall, the pig slaughter in the first half of the year may increase slightly and year - on - year, so the feed output is expected to continue to increase slightly and year - on - year [30][34]. - Feed enterprise inventory: As of February 28, the average inventory time of national sample feed enterprises was 31.29 days, a 2.00% month - on - month and 2.43% year - on - year decrease. The inventory days decreased slightly this month [35]. 3.2.5 Deep - processing Demand - Starch production and profit: In February, the price of raw - material corn continued to be strong, and the profitability of deep - processing enterprises did not improve significantly. The output and operating rate of corn starch decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The processing profit of starch enterprises was in loss, and the loss in some regions deepened [40]. - Deep - processing enterprise inventory: As of February 25, the total corn inventory of processing enterprises was 3.852 million tons, a 12.55% month - on - month and 25.48% year - on - year decrease. It is expected that the inventory level will continue to rise in March [41]. 3.2.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the February 2026 agricultural product supply - demand report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the prediction of China's corn supply - demand situation this month is the same as last month. In the 2025/26 season, the corn planting area, yield per unit area, and total output are expected to increase. The import volume remains at 6 million tons. The feed consumption demand of corn will decline slightly at a high level, and the deep - processing consumption will stop falling and rise. The current corn sales progress is generally faster year - on - year [46]. 3.3 Later Outlook - The viewpoints and strategies are the same as the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the supply - demand situation, price trends, and corresponding investment strategies [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts will drive the strength of precious metals and energy - chemical sectors next week, but the sustainability of the rise depends on the duration and intensity of the US - Iran conflict. Overall, next week, energy and precious metals > chemicals > non - ferrous metals > agricultural products > real - estate - related commodities such as black metals [2][19]. - Geopolitical conflicts are the main line of trading for various commodities. In the short term, the prices of precious metals and crude oil will soar, and rising oil prices will drive up the prices of chemicals such as PTA, styrene, and PE. Methanol will also be supported by geopolitical premiums [2][19]. - Excluding geopolitical factors, there are many positive narratives for non - ferrous metals, but price increases await the recovery of demand. The crude oil market is in a state of oversupply, chemical product price increases require inventory digestion, and the fundamentals of real - estate - related commodities such as black metals are generally weak [2][20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 One - Week Review: Commodities Rose Across the Board, with Precious Metals Leading - This week (02.23 - 03.01), commodity prices generally rose. In terms of sectors: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > agricultural products > oil - chemical > black metals > coal - chemical. Geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran and uncertainties in US tariff policies led to an increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, resulting in large increases in precious metals and energy [1][11]. - The Trump administration's plan to set reference prices for key minerals boosted the sentiment of non - ferrous metals. Supply - side concerns drove up the prices of tin and lithium carbonate significantly. After the Spring Festival, demand declined, causing the prices of agricultural products such as pigs to fall, but the prices of cotton and soybean oil increased [1][11]. - Shanghai's real - estate policies boosted the sentiment of black commodities, but the effectiveness of the policies remains to be seen, and the increase in black commodities was limited. Rising oil prices supported the prices of aromatic and olefin chains, but the supply and inventory of the chlor - alkali sector were high, and downstream demand was weak, resulting in weak price performance [1][11]. 3.1.2 Next - Week Outlook: Geopolitical Conflicts Intensify, Precious Metals and Energy - Chemicals Strengthen - Geopolitical conflicts will drive the strength of precious metals, energy - chemical and other sectors, but the sustainability of the rise depends on the US - Iran conflict. The positive impact of geopolitical conflicts on the non - ferrous metals sector is weaker than that on the energy sector, but the fundamentals of the non - ferrous metals sector are stronger than those of the energy - chemical sector [2][19]. - Real - estate policies have been implemented, but domestic demand cannot improve quickly, so the upward momentum of black commodities is weak. The opportunities in the agricultural products sector are structural. Overall, next week, energy and precious metals > chemicals > non - ferrous metals > agricultural products > real - estate - related commodities such as black metals [2][19]. - Geopolitical conflicts are the main line of trading for various commodities. The US - Iran situation has deteriorated sharply, and market risk - aversion sentiment will rise. In the short term, the prices of precious metals will soar. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz will disrupt crude oil supply, and oil prices are expected to rise. Rising oil prices will drive up the prices of chemicals, and methanol will also be supported by geopolitical premiums [2][19]. - Whether precious metals and energy - chemical commodities can continue to rise depends on the US - Iran conflict. If the conflict intensifies and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, geopolitical premiums may support further price increases. If the conflict subsides quickly, the short - term price increase may present a selling opportunity [20]. - Excluding geopolitical factors, there are many positive narratives for non - ferrous metals, but price increases await the recovery of demand. The crude oil market is in oversupply, chemical product price increases require inventory digestion, and the fundamentals of real - estate - related commodities such as black metals are generally weak [20]. 3.2 Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Data Tracking - The US dollar index fell slightly, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds declined. As of February 27, the US dollar index fell 0.10% to 97.6443 compared with February 20. The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds was 3.97%, down 11 BP from February 20. The yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year Treasury bonds was inverted by 215.1 BP [23]. - Although the US PPI in January exceeded market expectations, due to the dovish statements of some Federal Reserve officials, the expectation of interest - rate cuts increased, and the US dollar index weakened slightly. Concerns about AI impact, adjustments in US technology stocks, and rising market risk - aversion sentiment led to a decline in US Treasury bond yields [23]. - After the US - Iran conflict escalated over the weekend, the US dollar index is expected to strengthen. The RMB has been appreciating recently, but considering the strengthening of the US dollar and the reduction of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales by the Chinese central bank, the appreciation of the RMB will slow down [24]. 3.3 Upstream Raw Material Prices - Oil prices fluctuated and rose, coal prices were reported, natural gas prices fell slightly, and industrial electricity prices were also mentioned, but specific data and analysis were not elaborated in detail in the given text [32][33]. 3.4 Production - End High - Frequency Data - The blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises increased, and the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines recovered [35]. - China's copper - tube production decreased, and China's electrolytic - aluminum production increased [36]. - The EIA US crude - oil production was mentioned, and the methanol capacity utilization rate increased. The PE capacity utilization rate increased slightly, the PTA plant operating rate increased, the PVC operating rate increased, and the operating rate of Chinese soda - ash enterprises increased slightly [37][40][42]. - The capacity utilization rate of float - glass enterprises was at a low level, the operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles increased, the operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles increased, and the production of soybean meal from all - sample enterprises' pressing plants in China increased [45][46]. 3.5 Inventory - End High - Frequency Data - After the Spring Festival, the inventories of major commodities generally increased. The copper inventories of the three major exchanges continued to accumulate beyond the seasonal norm, and the corresponding basis decreased. The apparent demand for steel decreased after the Spring Festival, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The inventories of real - estate - related commodities such as PVC, glass, and soda ash generally accumulated beyond the seasonal norm. The inventories of precious metals, coking coal, and soybean meal decreased slightly [47]. 3.6 Demand - End High - Frequency Data - Shanghai announced real - estate stabilization policies this week, and some real - estate high - frequency data improved, such as the increase in the transaction area of second - hand housing in 13 cities. However, the overall improvement did not significantly exceed the seasonal level. The net financing scale of government bonds was 560.4 billion yuan, and the issuance rhythm of government bonds this year is generally ahead of schedule, and the net financing quota of government bonds is currently basically the same as that in the same period of 2025 [60]. 3.7 Key Commodity Basis - The basis of various key commodities such as gold, copper, aluminum, rebar, iron ore, coking coal, crude oil, methanol, PTA, PVC, pig, and soybean meal was mentioned, but specific data and analysis were not elaborated in detail in the given text [70]. 3.8 Commodity Price Ratios - The price ratios of various commodities such as the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, gold - oil ratio, copper - oil ratio, copper - aluminum ratio, steel - ore ratio, agricultural - industrial ratio, and pig - grain ratio were mentioned, but specific data and analysis were not elaborated in detail in the given text [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term strategy for stock index futures is risk defense, and after the sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may perform better than large - cap stocks. Geopolitical risks may suppress the performance of the equity market and cause bond yields to decline. The black, non - ferrous, agricultural, and energy - chemical sectors are all affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships, with different trends and investment suggestions for each variety [9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee discussed the draft of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and the government work report, emphasizing more proactive macro - policies. The US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran, leading to the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, which impacted the Middle East financial market. The conflict may last for about four weeks, and Iran has launched counter - attacks. The global shipping industry has been affected, and some shipping companies have adjusted their routes [4][5][6]. - In China, the 2026 National Two Sessions will be held, and economic data such as February PMI, foreign exchange, and gold reserves will be released. Internationally, the situation in Iran, the Russia - US - Ukraine negotiations, the Fed's Beige Book, and the February non - farm payroll report are attracting attention. Many companies will release their financial reports [5]. - South Korea's exports in February increased by 29% year - on - year, with semiconductor exports increasing by 160.8%. OPEC+ agreed in principle to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. The central bank lowered the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 20% to 0. The US January PPI and core PPI increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The land acquisition amount of TOP100 enterprises from January to February decreased by 52.4% year - on - year [6][7]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The short - term strategy is risk defense. After the sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may perform better than large - cap stocks. Geopolitical risks may suppress the performance of the equity market [9]. Bond Futures - Geopolitical risks may suppress the performance of the equity market and cause bond yields to decline [10]. Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - The trading rhythm this year is earlier than last year. Steel mills' orders are mixed, and downstream demand is weak. The supply of iron ore is abundant, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The overall steel price is expected to fluctuate, with suggestions to sell the wide - straddle option and hold it, and to take profit on short positions in iron ore in the short - to - medium term and hold some short positions lightly in the long term [12][13]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. After the holiday, the supply will recover faster than the demand, and the market is expected to continue the weak - fluctuation trend [14]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to hold long positions as the market is in a tight - balance state on a monthly basis. For silicomanganese, it is recommended to wait and see as the market is in a state of monthly surplus [15]. Soda Ash and Glass - It is recommended to wait and see for now. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new production capacity. For glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines and the subsequent demand [16]. Non - ferrous and New Materials Copper - Affected by geopolitical conflicts, copper prices may rise with precious metals in the short term but will return to their own logic later, with a wide - range fluctuation [17]. Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory has increased. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to maintain the previous bearish view [19]. Lead - The social inventory of lead has increased, but consumption is expected to improve in March. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [21]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips, as supply disturbances increase the expectation of tight raw materials, and demand is improving [23]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in a wide range. It is recommended to operate within the range for both [25]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The domestic cotton market is expected to be bullish, with attention paid to post - holiday demand and geopolitical impacts [27]. Sugar - The sugar market is in a state of short - term supply surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The supply surplus has been adjusted downward [28]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs is expected to rise slightly in March, but the futures price may enter a shock pattern. The far - month contracts are under pressure [30]. Apples - High - quality apple sources are expected to be strong, and the futures price may be bullish [32]. Corn - It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices, and a 5 - 7 reverse spread can be considered. Corn faces short - term pressure but is supported by low inventory [33]. Red Dates - The red date market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with attention paid to sales and inventory [34]. Pigs - In March, the pig market is expected to be in a state of strong supply and weak demand, and it is not recommended to short the near - month futures [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The short - term market is dominated by geopolitical factors. The price may rise, but the increase is limited. The market has high uncertainty [37]. Fuel Oil - The short - term trading focus is the impact of geopolitical - led oil prices on fuel oil, which is currently bullish [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure but are supported by rising raw material prices. It is necessary to guard against the risk of a rebound [41]. Synthetic Rubber - It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral trading, and the price may continue to decline in the short term [42]. Methanol - The current supply - demand situation has slightly improved. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the situation in the Middle East on Iran's methanol supply. It is recommended to have a bullish - shock view [43]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is expected to fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to the supply - demand relationship and the impact of warehouse receipts [44]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices will follow oil prices, with a smaller increase. Pay attention to post - winter - storage replenishment demand [45]. PVC - PVC may be bullish in the short term but has not improved in terms of core supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to be cautious and operate in a range [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - In the short term, the polyester industry chain is under supply - demand pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider a positive spread for PX or PTA 5 - 9 contracts [47]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The future supply of LPG is abundant, and the price is difficult to stay high. It is recommended to wait and see due to increased volatility [48]. Pulp - The port inventory of pulp has reached a new high, and the market sentiment has declined. Pay attention to inventory changes and price increases of finished products [50]. Logs - The forward spot price of logs is supported by cost. Pay attention to the impact of new delivery rules and the resumption of work in processing plants [51]. Urea - It is recommended to short on rallies in the urea futures market. The spot price has increased slightly, and the demand has weakened [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CBOT soybean May contract rose 20.25 to close at 1170 cents per bushel, a 1.76% increase; the soybean meal 05 contract rose 33 to close at 2833 yuan per ton, a 1.18% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 20 to close at 3080 yuan per ton, a 0.65% increase; the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 22 to close at 2287 yuan per ton, a 0.95% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price remained flat compared to the previous week [5][8]. - The upward movement of US soybeans is due to the favorable US biodiesel policy driving up soybean oil prices, and expectations of increased strategic purchases of US soybeans by China when Trump visits China at the end of March. Domestic soybean meal is stronger than rapeseed meal. News of soybean customs clearance has disturbed the market, driving up prices. Spot prices are weak, and the basis has declined. The import window for Canadian rapeseed has reopened, and future supply is increasing, causing rapeseed meal to decline [5][8]. - Forecasts of increased precipitation in southern Brazil have alleviated concerns about drought, accelerating the harvest and increasing export supply. The implementation of the US biodiesel policy is beneficial to soybean oil demand, causing US soybeans to move upward. Currently, they are in a previous high-pressure zone, and the strength of the resistance should be monitored. Last week, news of extended import soybean customs clearance time boosted the market. Domestic oil mill operating rates have recovered, but downstream purchasing and restocking sentiment is weak. Soybean meal inventories are high, overall supply is sufficient, spot prices are relatively weak, and the basis has declined. The 100% additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal imports has been cancelled, and the anti-dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed imports has been significantly reduced to 5.9%. Future supply of Canadian rapeseed products is increasing. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term [5][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price rose 20.25 to 1170 cents per bushel, a 1.76% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans rose 4 to 467 dollars per ton, a 0.86% increase; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans rose 5 to 514 dollars per ton, a 0.98% increase; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market rose 47.01 to 25.98 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal price rose 33 to 2833 yuan per ton, a 1.18% increase; the CZCE rapeseed meal price fell 22 to 2287 yuan per ton, a 0.95% decrease; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal price difference increased 55 to 546 yuan per ton; the East China spot price remained flat at 3080 yuan per ton; the South China spot price rose 20 to 3080 yuan per ton, a 0.65% increase; the South China spot - futures price difference decreased 13 to 247 yuan per ton [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The 2026 US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres, in line with market expectations. The USDA Chief Economist warns that production costs are expected to remain high, squeezing planting profit margins [9]. - As of the week of February 19, 2026, US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season increased by 407,000 tons, compared to 798,000 tons the previous week. The cumulative sales volume for the current season is 35.65 million tons, with a sales progress of 83.2%, compared to 86.5% last year. China's net purchases of US soybeans for the week were 76,000 tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 10.66 million tons and an unshipped volume of 4.5 million tons [9]. - As of the week of February 20, 2026, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.74 dollars per bushel, compared to 2.60 dollars per bushel the previous week; the truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in central Illinois was 58.98 cents per pound, compared to 56.66 cents per pound the previous week; the spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in central Illinois was 308.37 dollars per short ton, compared to 311.97 dollars per short ton the previous week; the price of No. 1 yellow soybeans per truck was 11.39 dollars per bushel, compared to 11.34 dollars per bushel the previous week [9][10]. - The NOPA monthly crushing report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in January 2026 was 221.564 million bushels, a 1.52% decrease from December. Compared to December 2024, it increased by 10.6%. The cumulative US soybean crushing volume from September 2025 to January 2026 was 1.088106 billion bushels, a 11.32% increase from the same period last year. The USDA's target for crushing demand growth in the 2025/2026 season is 5.11% [10]. - The US Environmental Protection Agency will submit a new biofuel blending mandate proposal to the White House on Wednesday, and the rule may be finalized by the end of March. The market is concerned about whether the proposal will increase the target usage of biodiesel and renewable diesel, which would significantly support soybean oil demand and prices [11]. - As of February 21, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 32.3%, compared to 24.7% the previous week and 36.4% last year, with a five - year average of 36.6%. Brazil's soybean exports in February are expected to be 10.69 million tons, lower than the previous week's estimate of 11.46 million tons [11]. - As of the week of February 25, 2026, the proportion of normal and excellent crop conditions in Argentina was 71%, compared to 75% the previous week and 68% last year. Forecasts show that cumulative precipitation in the Argentine soybean - growing areas will be below normal in the next 15 days, and the soybean production estimate remains in the range of 48 - 50 million tons [11]. - As of the week of February 20, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.1954 million tons, an increase of 421,500 tons from the previous week and 181,200 tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 842,500 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from the previous week and 343,700 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 3.1591 million tons, a decrease of 64,500 tons from the previous week and 62,000 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 5.594 million tons, an increase of 605,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 112,600 tons from the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of February 27, the national average daily soybean meal trading volume was 35,640 tons, including 32,040 tons of spot trading and 3,600 tons of forward trading. The average daily total trading volume in the week before the holiday was 34,860 tons. The average daily soybean meal pick - up volume was 110,960 tons, compared to 125,180 tons in the week before the holiday. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 588,600 tons, compared to 1.6879 million tons in the week before the holiday. The soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 9.89 days, compared to 12.59 days in the previous week [12]. Industry News - The SECEX agency reported that the pace of Brazilian soybean exports in the third week of February 2026 was lower than the same period last year. From February 1 to 20, Brazilian soybean exports were 4.085 million tons, compared to 6.428 million tons in February 2025. The average daily export volume so far in February is 314,205 tons, a 2.2% decrease year - on - year [14]. - The Agricultural Economics Institute of Mato Grosso reported that as of February 20, the soybean harvest progress in the 2025/26 season in the state had reached 65.75% of the planted area, higher than 51.01% a week ago, slightly lower than 66.16% in the same period last year, but still higher than the five - year average of 57.25% [14]. - The IMEA agency reported that as of the week of February 20, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso, Brazil was 613.00 reais per ton, compared to 628.17 reais per ton the previous week; the price of 46% protein soybean meal was 1597.94 reais per ton, compared to 1581.09 reais per ton the previous week; the average price of soybean oil was 5916.29 reais per ton, compared to 5912.42 reais per ton the previous week; the average price of soybeans was 101.84 reais per bag, compared to 102.16 reais per bag the previous week [14]. - Cargill announced that its terminal on the Santa Maria River in Para, Brazil, remains closed. Local indigenous people occupied the terminal, forcing workers to evacuate, halting operations. The terminal processes 5.5 million tons of corn and soybeans annually. Soybean growers in Para are worried about supply disruptions [15]. - According to the European Commission, as of February 22, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 1.89 million tons, compared to 1.96 million tons last year; the EU's rapeseed imports were 2.75 million tons, compared to 4.33 million tons last year; the EU's soybean imports were 8.11 million tons, compared to 9.13 million tons last year [15]. - US President Trump will visit China from March 31 to April 2, for a highly anticipated meeting with China's top leader. This will be the first face - to - face meeting between the two leaders since their meeting in South Korea in October last year [15]. - Statistics Canada's oilseed crushing data shows that in January 2026, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 1,053,420 tons, a 4.24% increase from the same period last year. The rapeseed oil production was 449,181 tons, a 5.99% increase year - on - year. The rapeseed meal production was 618,302 tons, a 4.57% increase year - on - year. The cumulative rapeseed crushing volume in the 2025/26 season is 6,115,197 tons, with rapeseed oil production of 2,591,237 tons and rapeseed meal production of 3,583,087 tons [16]. - According to foreign media reports, the 2025/26 soybean harvest rate in Parana, Brazil, has reached 37%. The state's agricultural economic department estimates the output at 22.12 million tons, consistent with the figure announced in January. Of the 5.77 million hectares of planted soybeans, 2.16 million hectares have been harvested. The current harvest progress lags behind the same period last year, but is normal compared to this year. Among the unharvested soybeans, 88% are in good condition, 11% are in average condition, and 1% are in poor condition [16]. - Reuters reported that the US Environmental Protection Agency plans to re - allocate at least 50% (possibly close to 75%) of the exempted biofuel blending obligations to large refineries, causing soybean oil prices to reach a recent high [16]. - Starting from March 1, 2026, China officially imposes a 5.9% anti - dumping duty on imported rapeseed from Canada for a period of 5 years. Starting from the same date, China officially cancels the 100% "anti - discrimination" tariff on rapeseed meal (oil cake) imported from Canada [17]. Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of US soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, RMB spot exchange rates, regional crushing profits, soybean meal main contracts, management fund CBOT net positions, spot - futures price differences of soybean meal, regional soybean meal spot prices, soybean meal M 5 - 9 month spreads, Brazilian and Argentine soybean - growing area precipitation and temperature, Brazilian soybean harvest progress, Argentine soybean crop conditions, US soybean cumulative sales, weekly net sales, weekly exports, US oil mill crushing profits, soybean meal weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume, port and oil mill soybean inventories, oil mill weekly crushing volume, unexecuted contracts, oil mill soybean meal inventories, and feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days [18][19][20][23][25][26][30][31][32][33][35][37][39][41][46][47].