Market Performance - A-shares experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.01% to 3582.3 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell by 0.37%[1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 1.62% at 25538.07 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 2.48% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.82%[1] - The total trading volume in Hong Kong surged to 3330.666 million HKD[1] Trade and Tariff Developments - Trump indicated that the reciprocal tariff rates would range from 15% to 50%, with most EU products expected to have a tariff rate set at 15%[1][15] - The EU and the US are reportedly moving towards a trade agreement, with a proposed 15% tariff on most products[15] Corporate Earnings and Forecasts - Tesla reported a 12% decline in revenue to 22.5 billion USD, marking the largest quarterly drop in at least a decade, with adjusted earnings per share at 0.40 USD, slightly below analyst expectations[15] - Tesla's gross margin remains above average expectations, indicating resilience in profitability despite revenue challenges[15] International Relations - Xi Jinping is scheduled to meet with EU leaders in Beijing, with discussions expected to focus on climate cooperation, although no joint statement is planned[15] - The meeting highlights ongoing tensions and divisions between China and the EU, despite previous signs of thawing relations[15]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market has seen a rapid increase in prices for various industrial products, driven by policy initiatives and infrastructure projects, but there is a growing divergence in the outlook for cyclical stocks among private equity firms [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new plan to stabilize growth in ten key industries, focusing on structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated capacity [1]. - The recent strong performance of sectors such as infrastructure, non-ferrous metals, steel, and building materials is seen as a clear indication of favorable fundamentals for bulk commodities [2]. - There is a significant difference in the current environment compared to the 2016 commodity boom, primarily due to a lack of short-term demand resonance and a different supply structure [1][2]. Group 2: Price Trends and Valuation - Current prices for some industrial raw materials are at historical highs, contrasting with the low prices seen in 2016, which may lead to a more differentiated impact from new policies [2]. - The cyclical sectors are experiencing a rebound partly due to supply-side reform expectations and the fact that overall valuations are at historical lows, with institutions holding fewer shares [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Private equity firms are focusing on structural opportunities, particularly in industries with low capacity growth and strong global competitiveness, such as non-ferrous metals [4]. - There is a flexible investment strategy being adopted, combining short-term speculation with long-term positioning, particularly in sectors like steel and chemicals that are expected to benefit from large infrastructure projects [4][5]. - Some firms have begun to build positions in sectors like new energy and coal, which have seen significant price adjustments in recent years, reflecting a positive medium-term outlook for the market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials ETF (159745) and infrastructure ETF (159619) experienced significant declines of 5.61% and 4.51% respectively, attributed to profit-taking and the lack of concrete policy implementation [1][5]. Market Performance - The construction materials ETF closed at a drop of 5.61%, while the infrastructure ETF closed down 4.51% [1][3]. - The trading volume for the infrastructure ETF was 2.61 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 60.85% [3]. Reasons for Decline - The decline is linked to the absence of policy rollout, with prior market enthusiasm leading to profit-taking by investors [5]. - The market had previously reacted positively to expectations surrounding anti-involution policies and major project investments, but the actual impact of the Yajiang Hydropower project on the construction and materials sectors remains to be seen [5]. Future Outlook - Short-term volatility is expected, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to anticipated growth in infrastructure investment and anti-involution policies [6]. - The total investment for the Yajiang downstream hydropower project is projected at 1.2 trillion CNY, which is expected to gradually stimulate demand across various sectors, including cement and construction materials [6]. - Fixed asset investment in China is projected to reach 24.87 trillion CNY in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [6]. Policy and Investment Trends - The implementation of more proactive macro policies is expected to support steady growth in infrastructure investment [7]. - The construction materials sector has seen a bottoming out of profits in various sub-industries, indicating potential recovery [7][8]. - Upcoming policies aimed at urban renewal and housing improvements are likely to boost demand for construction materials [7]. Investment Opportunities - The construction materials ETF (159745) is highlighted as a leading option, tracking the CSI All Share Construction Materials Index, which includes segments like cement and glass [8]. - Investors are encouraged to consider the potential for recovery in the construction materials sector, with 2025 anticipated as a pivotal year for profit restoration [8].

【导读】沪指盘中突破3600点，基金公司解读后市投资机会 中国基金报记者 张燕北 孙晓辉 近期，A股市场表现强劲。沪指自7月9日成功突破3500点后，连续9个交易日稳守 这一 关 口，且不断刷新年内高点。 7 月2 3 日 ，沪指、上证50 指数 等盘中突破3600、2800点，续写新篇章。 本轮指数突破有何独特之处？后续走势将如何展开？ 在基金公司看来，当前市场或仍处于上涨趋势中，不能轻易言顶。与以往相比，此次行情基 础更为扎实，市 场赚钱效应有望逐步扩散。 多因素驱动 此次行情基础更为扎实 业内认为，近期市场的上涨是多重利好因素共同推动的结果。 对于近期的上涨，长城基金认为有几个驱动因素：一是 " 反内卷 " 政策不断深化。 从 去年7 月 中央 政治局会议首次提到 " 反内卷 " 到现在已有一年时间，范围不断扩大，从上游资源 品、"新三样"到快递、航空等，而不是像上一轮供给侧改革主要集中在传统行业的去产能。 " 反内卷 " 政策的推出及执行，有望上修PPI和A股盈利预期。 二是世界级超级工程—总投资达1.2万亿元的雅鲁藏布江下游水电项目宣布开工，对顺周期板 块的情绪拉动较大，一定程度上 可 支撑指数上行 ...

GDP Performance - In Q2, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, while nominal GDP growth was only 3.9%, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand[3] - The deflator index further expanded to -1.3%, highlighting weak price levels[3] Production Insights - Industrial value-added growth was 6.8% in June, with a Q2 average of 6.4%, driven by strong exports[14] - The service sector maintained stable growth, with a cumulative production index increase of 5.9%[14] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% in Q2, down 1.4 percentage points from Q1[22] - Infrastructure investment growth was 8.9%, while real estate investment saw a significant decline of -12.9% in June, with a cumulative decline of -11.2%[24] Consumption Patterns - Retail sales grew by 4.6% year-on-year in Q2, a decrease from Q1, with durable goods consumption supported by "old-for-new" policies[39] - Restaurant consumption weakened significantly, with June's growth plummeting to 0.9%[39] Outlook and Policy Recommendations - To meet the annual GDP target of 5%, a growth rate of at least 4.7% is required in the second half of the year[42] - Continued policy support is essential to boost domestic demand, particularly in real estate and manufacturing sectors[42] Risk Factors - Potential risks include domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations and unexpected changes in overseas policies[43]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,130, up 0.54% for the day and 25.27% year-to-date, reaching its highest point since mid-February 2022[3] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.39% and 0.38% respectively, both hitting new highs since March[3] - Major US indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.40%, S&P 500 up 0.06%, and Nasdaq down 0.39%[8] Sector Performance - Kuaishou surged nearly 2%, while Baidu and Tencent also saw gains of 1.38% and 0.12% respectively[8] - Coal stocks experienced significant movement, with Mongolia Coking Coal rising 11.55% due to production rectification rumors[8] - Infrastructure stocks, particularly high-speed rail, performed well, with China Communications Construction rising 7.57%[8] Investor Sentiment - Market sentiment is improving, with investors focusing on upcoming earnings reports and trade negotiations[8] - UBS analysts expect increased market volatility as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches, alongside ongoing geopolitical uncertainties[8] Notable Stocks - In the US market, large tech stocks showed varied performance, with Google up 0.65% and Apple up 0.90%, while Nvidia and Meta fell by 2.54% and 1.14% respectively[8] - Chinese concept stocks on Nasdaq saw an overall increase, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising 1.7%[8] Economic Indicators - Foreign institutions reduced their holdings in Chinese government bonds for the first time in five months, with foreign ownership dropping to its lowest level in over seven years[12] - The anticipated IPO of Mindray Medical in Hong Kong could raise at least $1 billion[12]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing trends in the U.S. stock market, with the Dow Jones showing slight gains and the S&P 500 reaching a new historical high, indicating a robust market environment [9][11] - The report emphasizes the continuous development of artificial intelligence (AI), suggesting that the fundamental factors supporting the S&P 500 are stronger than during the dot-com bubble 25 years ago [9] - The report notes a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, which may influence investment strategies, particularly in products linked to interest rates [9] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index stabilized above 25,000 points, reaching a 3-year and 8-month high, with significant inflows from northbound capital [13] - The report mentions that the advertising expenditure in Hong Kong continues to decline, with a 6% year-on-year drop in Q2 2025 [13] - The report indicates that global investors are diversifying away from U.S. dollar investments, with foreign capital increasing its holdings in domestic stocks and funds in China [13] Company-Specific Insights - The report discusses the performance of General Motors (GM), which reported a 35.39% year-on-year decline in net profit for Q2, attributing the drop to tariff costs [11] - Lockheed Martin's net profit fell by 79.2% year-on-year due to project provisions, indicating challenges in the defense sector [11] - Texas Instruments reported a 15% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q2, with revenue rising by 16%, reflecting strong operational performance [11][18] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares of Dongfang Zhenxuan (1797), highlighting a 28% year-on-year growth in GMV for June 2025, marking a return to growth for its core business [22] - Zhongsheng Holdings (881) is identified as a leading automotive dealer in China, with over 400 dealerships and a strong customer base, making it a focus for upcoming financial reports [22] - Grab Holdings Limited (GRAB) is recommended for its strong user ecosystem and potential for cross-selling in Southeast Asia [24]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the expectation of "anti-involution" policies continues to drive up the prices of cyclical resource products such as steel, float glass, coal, and non-ferrous metals [1][7][9] - The real estate sales remain under pressure, affecting construction demand, with a notable decline in rebar apparent consumption and a continued decrease in cement prices [7][8] - The demand for durable goods shows a mixed performance, with air conditioning exports declining while domestic sales maintain rapid growth, influenced by high temperatures [7][8] Industry Trends Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales are still struggling, with a 23.1% year-on-year decline in transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities, and second-hand housing transactions in key cities down by 7.7% [8][11] - National retail sales of passenger cars increased by 11.0% year-on-year, while air conditioning domestic sales rose by 16.5%, but exports fell by 12.7% due to a retreat from "export grabbing" effects and tariff constraints [8][12] - Service consumption shows seasonal improvement, with a 35.0% increase in movie box office revenue week-on-week, although the year-on-year decline has widened, indicating a need for stronger consumer confidence [8][20] Midstream Manufacturing - The expectation of "anti-involution" policies has strengthened, leading to a rebound in steel prices, while cement prices remain under pressure due to weak construction demand [9][24] - Manufacturing activity shows a mixed picture, with automotive tire production rates improving, while overall hiring intentions have decreased slightly [9][34] - Resource prices are rising, with thermal coal prices increasing due to higher electricity consumption amid summer heat, and industrial metal prices benefiting from improved downstream demand expectations [9][43][46] Logistics and Transportation - Passenger transport demand has slightly decreased, but long-distance migration demand continues to grow, with a 4.8% increase in the migration scale index [10][51] - Freight transport remains robust, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volumes increasing by 0.7% and 1.1% respectively, while postal express collection and delivery volumes have seen a slight decline [10][53]

Group 1 - The core market sentiment has improved significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3600-point mark, indicating a potential bull market confirmation [1] - The market is currently focused on "anti-involution" and major infrastructure projects, with a notable recovery in the valuation of cyclical stocks [1] - A significant investment project in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower engineering has commenced, with an investment scale of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, leading to a surge in related sectors such as cement and infrastructure [1] Group 2 - The hydropower project is expected to have a construction period of 10-15 years and its investment scale is five times that of the Three Gorges Dam, indicating substantial demand for bulk commodities [1] - The initial preparation phase will require extensive infrastructure construction, necessitating large quantities of cement, steel, and timber, while the formal construction phase will focus on steel for key structures [1] - The later stages of the project will involve the installation of units and grid connection, requiring copper and aluminum for transmission, suggesting a bullish outlook for infrastructure-related sectors [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive impact of the Yajiang project on the construction materials and infrastructure sectors, leading to significant market activity and investment opportunities [1][2] - The Yajiang project, a national strategic initiative, is expected to enhance Tibet's GDP growth rate to over 8% annually and generate over 2 trillion yuan in related investments over the next decade, significantly boosting demand for cement and construction materials [1] - Recent government policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including construction materials, are expected to optimize the industry structure and improve the fundamentals for leading companies in the construction and materials sectors [1][2] Group 2 - The construction materials sector has seen a downturn in recent years, but recent data indicates that various sub-industries are approaching profitability bottoms, with expectations for recovery in 2025 [2] - Demand-side factors, such as urban renewal initiatives and support for home renovations, are anticipated to drive consumption of construction materials like pipes, waterproofing, and coatings [2] - The trend of "anti-involution" is expected to lead to positive changes in supply-side dynamics, with potential improvements in industry structure and profit margins for companies in the construction materials sector [2]