Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. After A - shares have accumulated significant gains, they may enter a high - level shock pattern, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental driver is needed to choose a direction. The long - end of Treasury bonds is weak while the short - end is strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as declining apparent demand and coking coal复产 [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again [2]. - There is a high supply pressure in the short - term for some energy and chemical products, and the market needs to pay attention to industrial demand rhythm [2]. - For agricultural products, there are different supply - demand situations, such as the abundant supply expectation for sugar and the low inventory of old - crop cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has a volume - increasing rise with the resonance of technology and finance. It is recommended to sell near - month put options at the support level to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: Uncertain about the direction, investors are advised to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money gold options. Silver should be traded in the range of 40 - 42 dollars and sell out - of - the money options at high volatility [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage as the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see due to factors suppressing steel prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170 [2]. - **Coke**: Short the coke 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Adopt a short - side thinking, with support levels for WTI at [61, 62], Brent at [64, 65], and SC at [465, 475] [2]. - **Urea**: Wait and see as the short - term high - supply pressure drags down the market [2]. - **PX**: Treat the short - term oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short - term and conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Follow the raw materials, with the processing fee oscillating in the range of 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand may both decline in September, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Look for EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: Hold short positions [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: Follow styrene and oil prices in the short - term [2]. - **Styrene**: Do low - buying operations on EB10 and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread at a low level [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates in the range of 11400 - 12500 [2]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **PP**: Stop profit on short positions at 6950 - 7000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Conduct range operations in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural - **Soybean Meal**: Operate in the range of 3050 - 3150 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Hog**: The market has limited supply - demand contradictions, and pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm [2]. - **Corn**: Short at high prices [2]. - **Oil**: The short - term P main contract may test the 9000 support [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the support at around 5500 [2]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see on a single - side basis [2]. - **Egg**: Control the position of previous short positions as the market rebounds [2]. - **Apple**: The main contract runs around 8100 [2]. - **Jujube**: The main contract fluctuates around 11000 [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: Wait and see and pay attention to the spot market sentiment during the peak season [2]. - **Rubber**: Wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price may fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the silicon industry conference [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation rises and the price increases [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait and see mainly, with the main contract running around 7 - 7.2 million [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel price is in a weak downward trend, with the decline already factoring in the decrease in apparent demand. Further decline is subject to policy interference on the raw material supply side. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is currently in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. The 2601 contract showed an oscillating downward trend. It is advisable to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low prices and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the market anticipates 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. It is recommended to go short on the Coke 2601 contract at high prices and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke. For coking coal, the price may continue to decline in September. It is recommended to go short on the Coking Coal 2601 contract at high prices and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of most steel products declined slightly. For example, the spot price of threaded steel in the East China region dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price dropped by 11 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace threaded steel increased by 3 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter threaded steel decreased by 8 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils remained unchanged, and the profit of South China threaded steel increased by 14 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 11.6 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.4 to 857.2, a decrease of 0.4%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.9 to 1514.6, an increase of 0.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types declined. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder dropped by 9.9 to 838.1, a decrease of 1.2%. The 01 contract basis of various iron ore types increased significantly [3]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 800.6 to 2756.2, a decrease of 22.5%. The 247 - steel - mill daily average pig iron output increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The national crude steel monthly output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8, a decrease of 4.2% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 24.3 to 13849.65, an increase of 0.2%. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased by 67.3 to 6636.8, a decrease of 0.7% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts increased. For example, the Coke 01 contract increased by 27 to 1630, a rise of 1.7%. The Coking Coal 01 contract increased by 25 to 1142, a rise of 2.2% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8%. The 247 - steel - mill daily average pig iron output increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1% [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 11.0 to 906.2, an increase of 1.2%. The total coking coal inventory decreased slightly. For example, the all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory decreased by 36.5 to 883.5, a decrease of 4.0% [5].

Group 1 - The coke sector experienced a slight increase of 0.13% on September 11, with Yunwei Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.31, up 1.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12979.89, up 3.36% [1] - The trading volume and turnover for key coke stocks were reported, with Yunwei Co., Ltd. closing at 3.50 and a trading volume of 174,000 shares [1] Group 2 - The net capital flow in the coke sector showed a net outflow of 30.537 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 27.677 million yuan [1] - Individual stock capital flows indicated that Baotailong had a net inflow of 4.3111 million yuan from main funds, while An Tai Group experienced a significant net outflow of 14.4761 million yuan [2] - The overall sentiment in the coke sector appears mixed, with some stocks like Yunwei Co., Ltd. seeing retail inflows despite main fund outflows [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views Steel - Steel maintains a weak trend, with iron ore and coking coal showing divergent trends. Steel apparent demand remains at a low level in the off - season and has not recovered. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation at low prices from August to September, and the apparent demand is expected to pick up in the peak season, with slower inventory accumulation. The steel supply - demand situation has not deteriorated to the negative feedback stage. Future steel prices will more likely follow the supply - side expectations of coking coal. For the January contract, pay attention to the support levels of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils [1] Iron Ore - As of the previous afternoon's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a stable oscillating trend. On the supply side, the global shipment volume of iron ore has dropped significantly from its annual high, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. It is estimated that the subsequent average arrival volume will first increase and then decrease. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin has slightly declined, and after major events, the hot - metal production will significantly rebound this week, increasing the steel mills' restocking demand. It is expected that supply and demand will recover simultaneously this week. In terms of inventory, port inventory has slightly increased, the port clearance volume has decreased month - on - month, and the steel mills' equity iron ore inventory has decreased month - on - month. Looking ahead, due to the still high profit margin of steel mills, hot - metal production will remain at a relatively high level in September, and the low port inventory year - on - year provides support for iron ore. The iron ore market is currently in a slightly tight balance, and it is recommended to take a long position on dips for the iron ore 2601 contract and reduce the position of the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage [3] Coking Coal and Coke - As of the previous afternoon's close, coking coal futures showed an oscillating downward trend, with sharp price fluctuations recently. The spot auction price was stable with a weak trend, and the Mongolian coal quotation was weak. For coke, futures showed an oscillating rebound trend, with sharp price fluctuations recently. After the first round of price cuts in the coke spot market, it has temporarily stabilized, and the port trade quotation follows the futures. On the supply side of coking coal, due to the shutdown of main - producing area coal mines last week, coal mine production decreased significantly month - on - month, but after the end of the parade, production restrictions were lifted, and the main - producing areas gradually resumed production. For coke, due to the previous consecutive price increases, coking profits improved, and northern coking enterprises quickly resumed production after being restricted by major events. On the demand side, the hot - metal production of blast furnaces dropped significantly last week, and steel mills will resume production this week, leading to a rapid rebound in hot - metal production. In terms of inventory, coking plant and steel mill inventories have slightly increased, and port inventories have decreased for coke; for coking coal, last week, coal mines, coal preparation plants, coking plants, and steel mills reduced their inventories, while ports and border crossings slightly increased their inventories. The overall inventory is at a medium - low level. It is recommended to take profit on short positions, treat the market with an oscillating view, and reduce the position of the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal/coke arbitrage [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions have generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton each, and most rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts also declined [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the slab price remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar remained unchanged. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils remained unchanged, while the profit of North China hot - rolled coils increased by 20 yuan, and the profit of South China hot - rolled coils increased by 10 yuan. The profit of rebar in different regions showed different changes, with North China's rebar profit decreasing by 10 yuan [1] Production - The daily average hot - metal production decreased by 11.1 to 229.0, a decrease of 4.6%. The production of five major steel products decreased by 24.0 to 860.7, a decrease of 2.7%. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased, with rebar production dropping by 1.9 to 218.7 (a decrease of 0.9%) and hot - rolled coil production dropping by 10.5 to 314.2 (a decrease of 3.2%) [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 32.8 to 1500.7, an increase of 2.2%. The rebar inventory increased by 16.6 to 640.0, an increase of 2.7%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.9 to 374.3, an increase of 2.4% [1] Transaction and Demand - The daily average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 9.3, a decrease of 8.3%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 29.9 to 827.8, a decrease of 3.5%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased, with rebar's apparent demand dropping by 2.1 to 202.1 (a decrease of 1.0%) and hot - rolled coil's apparent demand dropping by 15.4 to 305.4 (a decrease of 4.8%) [1] Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, with a decrease of about 0.4%. The basis of the 01 contract for various iron ore powders increased significantly, for example, the basis of the 01 contract for PB powder increased by 41.7 to 39.7, a significant increase of 2108.3%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.5 to - 66.5 (an increase of 3.6%), the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.5 to 42.5 (a decrease of 5.6%), and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged [3] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased slightly, with a decrease of about 0.3% - 0.4%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price increased by 1.5 to 106.8 (an increase of 1.4%), and the Jinshi 62% Fe price increased by 2.0 to 107.7 (an increase of 1.8%) [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 78.0 to 2448.0, a decrease of 3.1%. The global shipment volume decreased by 800.6 to 2756.2, a significant decrease of 22.5%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 to 10462.3, a decrease of 1.2% [3] Demand - The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.3 to 228.8, a decrease of 4.7%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 0.9 to 317.8, a decrease of 0.3%. The national monthly pig - iron production decreased by 110.8 to 7079.7, a decrease of 1.5%, and the national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8, a decrease of 4.2% [3] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 24.3 to 13849.65, an increase of 0.2%. The import iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 67.3 to 9007.2, a decrease of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0, an increase of 5.0% [3] Coking Coal and Coke Prices and Spreads - For coking coal, the 01 contract price decreased by 7 to 1124, a decrease of 0.6%, and the 05 contract price decreased by 10 to 1205, a decrease of 0.8%. For coke, the 01 contract price increased by 6 to 1603, an increase of 0.3%, and the 05 contract price increased by 7 to 1733, an increase of 0.4% [5] Supply - The weekly coke production of the full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3, a decrease of 0.34%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.3 to 228.8, a decrease of 4.7%. The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 43.1 to 860.5, a decrease of 5.0%, and the clean coal production decreased by 25.4 to 444.5, a decrease of 5.74% [5] Demand - The weekly hot - metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.2 to 228.8, a decrease of 4.74%. The weekly coke production demand also decreased, with the full - sample coking plant daily average production decreasing by 0.2 to 64.3, a decrease of 0.34% [5] Inventory Changes - For coke, the total inventory increased by 7.8 to 895.3, an increase of 0.9%. The coking plant inventory increased by 1.2 to 66.5, an increase of 1.8%, and the 247 - steel - mill inventory increased by 13.6 to 623.7, an increase of 2.2%. For coking coal, the Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory increased by 6.8 to 116.7, an increase of 5.8%, while the full - sample coking plant inventory decreased by 41.2 to 967.3, a decrease of 4.34%, and the 247 - steel - mill inventory decreased by 16.1 to 811.9, a decrease of 2.04% [5] Supply - Demand Gap - The calculated coke supply - demand gap increased by 4.9 to - 0.8, indicating a slight improvement in the supply - demand situation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit in the first half of 2025, primarily due to falling coke prices, but still managed to maintain profitability through cost control measures [1][3]. Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for the first half of 2025 was 20.549 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5% [1]. - Net profit for the same period was 87 million RMB, down 34% year-on-year, impacted by lower coke prices [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 11.9%, an increase of 4.4 percentage points, attributed to effective cost-saving measures and a reduction in depreciation expenses [2]. Coke Business - Revenue from coke and coking operations was 6.36 billion RMB, a decrease of 35.2% year-on-year [1]. - The average price of coke fell to approximately 1,400 RMB per ton (excluding tax), a decline of about 30% year-on-year, but rebounded to around 1,500 RMB per ton by the end of July 2025 [1]. - The volume of coke produced increased by 330,000 tons year-on-year, totaling 10.88 million tons [1]. Chemical Business - Revenue from the chemical business was 9.1 billion RMB, down 12.6% year-on-year, primarily due to lower average prices for key products [2]. - The gross profit margin for the chemical segment was 8.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, with a tax-prepared profit of 190 million RMB, down 44.9% year-on-year [2]. Hydrogen Energy Business - Hydrogen sales reached 1,114 million cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 20%, with hydrogen revenue of 56 million RMB, up 47% [2]. Operational Management and Trade - Revenue from operational management was 1.275 billion RMB, a decrease of 47% year-on-year, with a tax-prepared profit of 34 million RMB, down 41.2% [3]. - Trade business revenue increased by 53% to 3.73 billion RMB, although it incurred a tax-prepared loss of 184 million RMB, which widened by 8.2% year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 170 million, 480 million, and 1.06 billion RMB respectively, reflecting the impact of declining coke prices [1][3]. - The target price remains at 4.2 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 68% from the current stock price [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal sector experienced a decline of 0.74% on September 10, with Baotailong leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.38% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of coking coal stocks showed mixed results, with Antai Group rising by 1.71% to 2.38, while other companies like Meijin Energy and Yunnan Coal Energy saw declines of 1.04% and 1.02% respectively [1] - The total trading volume for coking coal stocks was significant, with Meijin Energy recording a transaction amount of 2.22 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The coking coal sector saw a net outflow of 53.64 million yuan from main funds and 26.69 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 80.33 million yuan [1] - Individual stock capital flows indicated that Baotailong experienced the largest net outflow of 23.01 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors showed a net inflow of 24.80 million yuan [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The equity market may enter a high - level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial. The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate in the 1.74% - 1.8% range [3]. - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited, causing precious metals to rise and then fall. The steel market is weak, while the iron ore market is strong. The copper market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The energy and chemical markets show various trends. For example, oil prices are supported by geopolitical risks but limited by a loose supply - demand situation. The agricultural product market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and reports [3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.23%, - 0.11%, - 0.81%, and - 0.83% respectively. The market is supported by pro - cyclical factors and continues to oscillate [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to tight funds and concerns about increased fund redemption fees, the sentiment in the bond futures market is weak. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited. Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver should be traded in the $40 - 42 range [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of the container shipping index (European Line) is weakly oscillating, and 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices have weakened. Long positions should be closed and wait for further observation. The support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coil are around 3100 and 3300 respectively [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and the price is strong. Long positions can be taken at low prices in the 780 - 830 range [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is weakly oscillating. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be used [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts for coke has been implemented. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to inflation data on Thursday. The main contract is expected to trade between 78500 - 80500 [3]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The processing industry's weekly operating rate is recovering. The main contracts of aluminum, aluminum alloy, etc. have their respective expected trading ranges [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel also have their expected price ranges and corresponding market trends [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support the rebound of oil prices, but the loose supply - demand situation limits the upside. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the options side [3]. - **Urea**: The consumption in industry and agriculture is not obvious, and the market is expected to continue to be weak in the short term. A short - selling strategy can be considered, and the implied volatility can be reduced at high levels on the options side [3]. - **PX, PTA, and Related Products**: PX and PTA have different supply - demand expectations in September. They should be traded within their respective price ranges, and some spread arbitrage strategies can be used [3]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Ethanol, caustic soda, PVC, etc. also have their own market trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the market, but the domestic market has a bullish expectation. Long positions can be taken for the 01 contract in the long term [3]. - **Livestock and Grains**: The supply pressure of pigs is realized, and the corn market has limited rebound. Palm oil may be strong, and sugar is expected to be weak [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Cotton, eggs, apples, etc. also have their own market characteristics and trading suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the market. Wait and see the actual progress [3]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and the rubber price is oscillating downward. Wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by polysilicon, the price has weakened at the end of the session. The price may fluctuate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Affected by news, the market has declined. Wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to increased news interference, the market is expected to be weak. A short - selling strategy can be considered [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from the relatively optimistic liquidity environment, and attention should be paid to the introduction of policies to promote service consumption [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and its short - term strengthening depends on the continuous improvement of internal and external environments [3]. - The phased correction of stock indices may be over, and they are expected to return to a relatively strong trend [3]. - The Treasury bond market should be operated with a band - trading strategy [5]. - The shipping index is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [11]. - Copper prices may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [15]. - Zinc should be on the sidelines for the time being [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively [19]. - Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply [19]. - Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. - Steel products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - Iron ore has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - It is recommended to lightly test long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. - Crude oil may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - LPG fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - MEG is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in methanol [39]. - PP has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - PE is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - PVC is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - Fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - Asphalt is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - Urea is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be relatively optimistic, which is beneficial to the bond market. Attention should be paid to policies to promote service consumption. Overseas, the long - term bond market has experienced a "Black September," and the focus is on the Fed's dot - plot [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by the US dollar index. It is expected to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic data [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The phased correction may be over, and stock indices are expected to return to a relatively strong trend due to the expected loosening of liquidity [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A band - trading strategy is recommended [5]. - **Shipping Index**: It is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Weak employment data boosts recession trading. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11]. - **Copper**: US non - farm data drags down copper prices, which may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [14][15]. - **Zinc**: It should be on the sidelines for the time being due to non - farm data falling short of expectations [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply, and a V - shaped rebound is expected [19]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: It has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: It is recommended to lightly test long positions, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - **PX - TA**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to hold long positions [39]. - **PP**: It has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **PE**: It is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - **PVC**: It is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Pure Benzene & Benzene Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hejia Holdings (00704), has received a notice from the Stock Exchange indicating that it has failed to maintain sufficient operational levels as required by Listing Rule 13.24, leading to the suspension of its shares trading [1][2] Group 1: Operational Status - The company's core operation, coking production, has been suspended since October 2021, and it has repeatedly failed to implement its recovery plans for this business [1] - Over the past two years, the company has only engaged in coking trading, generating minimal revenue [1] - The company's plans to restore coking production are preliminary and uncertain [1] Group 2: Financial Position - As of March 31, 2025, the company reported a net current liability of HKD 444.5 million and maintained only HKD 1.7 million in cash [2] - The total assets reported by the company amount to HKD 1.8109 billion, which includes idle coking ovens valued at HKD 1.6654 billion [2] - There is no clear path for the company to generate income from these assets or to restore coking production [2] - On August 2, 2024, a creditor submitted a claim against the company for overdue debts and interest totaling HKD 280.9 million [2] - The company's auditors have expressed an inability to provide an opinion on the company's ability to continue as a going concern since the 2020 fiscal year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hejia Holdings (00704), has received a notification from the Stock Exchange indicating that it has failed to maintain sufficient operational levels as required by Listing Rule 13.24, leading to the suspension of its shares trading [1][2] Group 1: Operational Status - The company's core operation, coke production, has been suspended since October 2021, and it has repeatedly failed to implement its recovery plans for this business [1] - Over the past two years, the company has only engaged in coke trading, generating minimal revenue [1] - The company's plans to restore coke production are preliminary and uncertain [1] Group 2: Financial Position - As of March 31, 2025, the company reported a net current liability of HKD 444.5 million and maintained a cash balance of only HKD 1.7 million [2] - The total assets reported by the company amount to HKD 1.8109 billion, which includes idle coke ovens valued at HKD 1.6654 billion [2] - There is no clear path for the company to generate income from these assets or to resume coke production [2] Group 3: Debt and Audit Concerns - On August 2, 2024, a creditor submitted a claim against the company for overdue debts and interest totaling HKD 280.9 million [2] - Since the fiscal year 2020, the company's auditors have expressed an inability to provide an opinion on the company's ability to continue as a going concern [2] Group 4: Next Steps - The company is currently reviewing the notification from the Stock Exchange and plans to hold a board meeting to discuss whether to request a review of the decision by the Listing Committee [2]