焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/5/6 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1376.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 54.19 | -32.33% 高炉开工率 | 92.00 | | 0.40 | 2.37 | 7.56% | | 河北准一湿熄 | 1655.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 180.00 | -28.04% 铁水日均产量 | 245.42 | | 1.07 | 6.69 | 6.39% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1570.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | -32.91% 盘面05 | 1590 | 21.50 | 0.00 | 1.50 | -28.86% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1610.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | -32.35% 盘面09 | 1546.5 | -6.50 | -40. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices are expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations. A rebound requires steel mills to cut production or an improvement in demand expectations. Temporarily, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider long - finished products and short - raw materials arbitrage operations [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to continue to be under pressure. The sustainability of high hot metal production depends on terminal demand, and there are supply - side risks such as increased overseas shipments and potential production cuts [4]. Coke - Although the fundamentals of coke have improved, the weakening of coking coal and the possible issuance of a flat - control document for crude steel production are expected to bring pressure. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices may continue to decline. There is still room for decline in the future. It is recommended to focus on arbitrage operations and consider going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [6]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices are expected to fluctuate. Although the supply - demand situation has marginally improved after production cuts, the high inventory and the uncertain demand limit the price rebound, but the cost provides support [7]. Ferromanganese - Ferromanganese prices are expected to decline steadily. The supply - demand contradiction needs to be resolved, and the cost support is insufficient [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Steel prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3240 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets decreased, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 17 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average hot metal production increased by 4.2 tons to 244.4 tons, and the production of five major steel products increased slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.2%, with rebar inventory down by 4.2% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material transactions decreased by 7.3%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.4% [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some iron ore varieties declined slightly, and the basis of some contracts decreased [4]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipments increased slightly, while the arrivals at ports decreased significantly [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 1.8%, and the monthly production of pig iron and crude steel increased significantly [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased by 0.6%, and the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills increased slightly [4]. Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke futures showed a mixed trend, with the 2505 contract rising and the 2509 contract falling. The 5 - 9 spread strengthened [6]. - **Supply**: Coke production increased, with the daily average production of all - sample coking plants increasing by 2.3% [6]. - **Demand**: The iron - making capacity utilization rate of downstream steel mills increased, and the iron water production reached over 244 tons per day [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased slightly, with coking plant inventories decreasing and steel mill inventories increasing slightly [6]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: Coking coal futures declined, with the 2509 contract falling more significantly. The 5 - 9 spread stabilized [6]. - **Supply**: Domestic coal mines continued to resume production, but the port customs clearance decreased [6]. - **Demand**: Coking production increased slightly, and the demand for coking coal from downstream users increased [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory decreased slightly, with upstream mine inventories increasing and port inventories decreasing [6]. Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the basis of some regions improved [7]. - **Supply**: Ferrosilicon production continued to decrease, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 11.8% [7]. - **Demand**: The hot metal production increased significantly, and the non - steel demand showed seasonal improvement [7]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of ferromanganese decreased, and the basis of some regions improved [7]. - **Supply**: Ferromanganese production decreased, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 15.4% [7]. - **Demand**: The hot metal production increased, and the building material demand may have reached its peak [7]. - **Manganese Ore**: The global manganese ore shipments decreased, but the arrivals at ports remained high, and the port inventory increased by 5.0% [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US labor market shows signs of weakness, with the March JOLTS job openings hitting a six - month low, and the upcoming Q1 GDP initial value may disappoint. The policies of the Trump administration and the tariff war are negatively affecting the labor market [7]. - For the container shipping index (European line), the near - term is under pressure. It is recommended to hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread position lightly, and reduce positions for near - month single - side trading before the holiday [8][9]. - Industrial silicon has a weak fundamental pattern. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies and be cautious when holding positions before the holiday [10]. - For live pigs, the inventory accumulation drive is weakening, and a phased inventory reduction may start, with short - term reverse spread opportunities [11][12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pre - reading Highlights from the Director - **US Labor Market**: The US March JOLTS job openings were 7.192 million, far lower than the expected 7.5 million. The data has been on a downward trend since 2022, and recent policies have further impacted the labor market. The upcoming Q1 GDP initial value may be disappointing [7]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The near - term is under pressure. In early May, the loading rate was lower than expected, and the market freight rate has dropped. The 10 - 12 reverse spread can be held through the holiday, and near - month single - side trading should reduce positions before the holiday [8][9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The fundamentals are weak. The industry inventory is high, supply is increasing while demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies and be cautious before the holiday [10]. - **Live Pigs**: The inventory accumulation drive is weakening. With the increase in temperature, a phased inventory reduction may start in May, and there are short - term reverse spread opportunities [11][12]. 3.2 Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows risk preference recovery, and silver rebounds steadily. Gold has a trend strength of 0, and silver also has a trend strength of 0 [18][21]. - **Copper**: Inventory continues to decrease, supporting the price. The trend strength is 0 [23][25]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum fluctuates strongly, while alumina drops significantly. Both have a trend strength of 0 [26][28]. - **Zinc**: It has a strong current situation but weak expectations, and will trade sideways in the short term. The trend strength is 0 [29][30]. - **Lead**: Demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. The trend strength is - 1 [32][33]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The upside and downside space of nickel converges, and the price may trade in a narrow range. Stainless steel has a cost - feedback game on the disk. Both have a trend strength of 0 [35][38]. - **Tin**: It shows a slight recovery. The trend strength is 0 [39][42]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a weakly oscillating disk, and polysilicon has a slight increase in registered warehouse receipts. Both have a trend strength of - 1 [43][46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts continue to increase, and the disk is under pressure. The trend strength is 0 [47][50]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are volatile, and it trades in a wide range. The trend strength is 0 [51][52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Demand expectations are poor, and prices fluctuate at a low level. Both have a trend strength of 0 [55][58]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Silicon ferroalloy oscillates at a low level due to black - sector resonance, and manganese ferroalloy oscillates at a low level due to ore - end information disturbances. Both have a trend strength of 0 [59][62]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are disturbed by production - limit news and trade in a wide range. Both have a trend strength of 0 [63][65]. - **Steam Coal**: The rigid demand has limited impact, and it trades weakly with oscillations. The trend strength is 0 [66][68]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [69]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene has a collapsing cost and expanding processing margin. PTA recommends a month - spread reverse spread, and MEG suggests a long - PTA short - MEG strategy [72][73].

Core Viewpoint - Antai Group has demonstrated resilience in a challenging market by implementing flexible operational strategies, technological innovations, and a focus on circular economy, resulting in a significant reduction in losses for the fiscal year 2024 [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 6.676 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -335 million yuan, marking a substantial reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1]. Operational Strategies - In response to market challenges, Antai Group adopted a strategy of "stabilizing the market, flexible operations, increasing revenue, and controlling costs" [1]. - The company utilized a "contract processing" model to mitigate raw material price volatility by converting part of its self-produced coke into contract manufacturing [1]. - The steel business maintained stable revenue with sales of 1.2256 million tons of H-beams, remaining consistent with the previous year [1]. Cost Management - Antai Group implemented "accounting management" and lean management practices, leading to a significant reduction in costs, with three expense categories compressed by over 15% year-on-year [1]. Technological Innovation - The company prioritized technological innovation, enhancing its independent innovation capabilities and establishing a standard management system for new processes and materials [2]. - The upgrade of the coke MES system resulted in over 90% automation in production and a 20% increase in per capita efficiency [2]. Circular Economy Initiatives - Antai Group has made significant strides in developing a circular economy, focusing on energy conservation and emission reduction, and creating an ecological industrial park for coke and steel [2]. - The company achieved compliance with national ultra-low emission standards for pollutants and exceeded industry benchmarks in energy consumption for the coking process [2]. - A carbon-neutral demonstration project involving CO2 microalgae cultivation was implemented to explore feasible pathways for reducing carbon emissions [2].

Core Points - The China Securities 1000 Energy Index has experienced a decline of 8.54% over the past month, 8.15% over the past three months, and 11.55% year-to-date [2] Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities 1000 Energy Index is currently reported at 436.46 points [1] - The index is based on a sample of liquid and representative securities from each industry, providing a diversified investment option [2] - The index was established on December 31, 2004, with a base point of 1000.0 [2] Group 2: Index Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities 1000 Energy Index include Donghua Energy (10.57%), New Natural Gas (9.55%), and Continental Oil & Gas (9.04%) [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 71.66% of the index holdings, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 28.34% [2] - The industry composition of the index holdings includes coal (32.49%), oil refining (22.69%), coke (20.60%), natural gas processing (13.65%), and oil and gas circulation and others (10.57%) [2] Group 3: Sample Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [3] - Temporary adjustments may occur under special circumstances, such as delisting or corporate actions like mergers and acquisitions [3] - Changes in industry classification due to special events will also lead to corresponding adjustments in the index samples [3]

关注微信公众号 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年4月29日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品相 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 泉差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3240 | 3230 | 10 | 83 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3220 | 3220 | O | 63 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3300 | 3330 | -30 | 143 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3060 | 3055 | 35 | 180 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3129 | 3101 | 28 | 111 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3157 | 3137 | 20 | 83 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3280 | 3300 | -20 | 22 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3240 | 3240 | 0 | -18 | | | 热卷 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Sino - US trade friction is at a standstill with high uncertainty, and there are still domestic policy expectations. In the short term, the hot metal production remains at a high level, providing some support for the raw material demand. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is not significant, and the supply - demand pattern of coking coal remains loose. Before the holiday, it is expected to fluctuate mainly. To avoid policy risks, it is recommended to continue to reduce short positions and hold a light position during the holiday [4][9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke 3.1.1 Price - Macro sentiment dominates, and it is expected to fluctuate before the holiday. The second - round price increase of spot coke has started but not yet landed, and the spot price is mainly stable. The coke 09 contract rose 0.87% to 1566 as of Friday's close. The freight rate of coke by truck remained stable last week [8][9][10] 3.1.2 Supply - Coke enterprises' profitability continued to recover, and coke supply increased significantly. As of April 25, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises nationwide was 75.36%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85 percentage points; the daily average coke output was 66.85 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.52 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills' coking was 87.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points; the daily average coke output was 47.47 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 tons [28][34] 3.1.3 Demand - Hot metal production accelerated its recovery, and steel mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. As of April 25, the blast furnace start - up rate of 247 sample steel mills was 84.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, a week - on - week increase of 1.45 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4435 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 42,300 tons; the steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, a week - on - week increase of 2.6 percentage points. The speculative sentiment was average, export profits declined, and the spot trading volume of building materials remained low [37][40] 3.1.4 Inventory - Steel mills made rigid - demand purchases, coke enterprises slightly reduced their inventories, and the total inventory decreased slightly. As of April 25, the total coke inventory decreased by 29,600 tons week - on - week to 1.0148 million tons. Among them, the port inventory decreased by 25,200 tons week - on - week to 243,580 tons; the all - sample independent coke enterprises' inventory decreased by 23,900 tons week - on - week to 104,870 tons; the 247 sample steel mills' inventory increased by 19,500 tons week - on - week to 666,350 tons [43][46] 3.1.5 Profit - Coke enterprises' profitability continued to recover, and the coke futures profit fluctuated. The national sample of 30 independent coke enterprises had a loss of 9 yuan per ton of coke, a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan. The futures profit of coke 09 increased by 3.45 yuan per ton week - on - week to 323.2 yuan per ton [54] 3.1.6 Valuation - Coke 09 had a slight premium, and the 9 - 1 spread strengthened slightly. The basis of coke 09 decreased by 13.5 week - on - week to - 79.39, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 17 week - on - week to - 28.5 [58] 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Price - Macro sentiment dominates, and it is expected to fluctuate before the holiday. The spot price mainly weakened. The coking coal 09 contract rose 0.37% to 956 as of Friday's close [4][61] 3.2.2 Supply - The impact of coal mine production cuts was limited, the operating rate of coal washing plants increased, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased, and the import of coking coal from January to March 2025 increased slightly year - on - year. As of April 25, the operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants nationwide was 63.01%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11 percentage points; the daily average output of clean coal was 534,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,400 tons. From January to March 2025, China's cumulative import of coking coal was 27.47 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of 2.32% [72][76] 3.2.3 Inventory - Downstream enterprises reduced their inventories, coal mines accumulated inventories, and the total inventory remained flat. As of April 25, the total coking coal inventory increased by 1,000 tons week - on - week to 2.61251 million tons. Among them, the inventory of coking coal in mining enterprises increased by 212,600 tons week - on - week to 354,600 tons; the port inventory decreased by 125,900 tons week - on - week to 324,790 tons; the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants increased by 3,500 tons week - on - week to 181,680 tons; the all - sample independent coke enterprises' inventory decreased by 71,700 tons week - on - week to 968,960 tons; the 247 sample steel mills' inventory decreased by 17,500 tons week - on - week to 782,480 tons [79][82] 3.2.4 Valuation - Coking coal 09 had a slight discount, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated. The basis of coking coal 09 decreased by 3.5 week - on - week to 14, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged week - on - week at - 48 [101]

贵金属： 连续上涨后黄金步入调整。上周美国总统特朗普释放缓和信号，一方面表示尽管他对美联储 未能更快地降低利率感到沮丧，但他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。另一方面称对华关税将 " 大幅下降 " 。周末有报道称，首个贸易协议即将达成，并且很可能会是与印度签署。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克上周 四在接受采访时表示，美联储 5 月已基本排除降息可能。但她同时释放关键信息称，若经济走向有了明 确证据， 6 月存在采取政策行动的空间。美国财长贝森特最新演讲阐述中美达成贸易协议的可能框架， 称需 2-3 年。此前，特朗普一再要求美联储降息，并研究能否免去鲍威尔的美联储主席职务，并引发市 场恐慌。而随着贸易战的扰动，引发一系列的连锁反应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美 国债务等问题愈发凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。考虑美国债务压力 进一步凸显，滞胀形式进一步明确下，黄金整体维持强势，但近期在贸易战没有进一步烈化、特朗普和 美联储态度软化、滞胀预期一定程度消化、多头较为拥挤下，黄金或面临调整压力。 集运指数： 上周五 EC 低开震荡， 06 合约收于 1365.1 点，下跌 2.92% 。盘后公布 ...

Group 1 - As of April 25, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reported 1347.84 points, a decrease of 22.74 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index was at 1122.40 points, reflecting a 1% increase [1] - In the Xingtai market, plans to raise coke prices have been announced, with wet quenching coke up by 50 yuan/ton and dry quenching coke up by 55 yuan/ton, effective from April 27 [1] - Vale's CFO indicated that iron ore prices are expected to stabilize around $100 per ton, but it is too early to assess the impact of trade wars on iron ore prices [1] Group 2 - Malaysia's palm oil export volume from April 1-25 reached 923,893 tons, a 14.75% increase compared to 805,130 tons in the same period last month; SGS estimates the export volume at 703,169 tons, a 3.6% increase from 678,698 tons [2] - As of April 24, methanol inventory at East China ports was 22.92 million tons, down from 29.90 million tons on April 17, a decrease of 6.98 million tons [2] - A company responded to inquiries regarding its low-cost soda ash production, stating there are no planned maintenance schedules for the Alashan natural soda project and that it has not received notifications about any price increase meetings [2]

华夏时报记者李佳佳李未来北京报道 近期，上市公司年报披露进入密集期，焦炭行业的业绩表现成为资本市场关注焦点。 4月24日，山西焦化（600740）股份有限公司(下称"山西焦化"，600740.SH)发布2024年年报，公司营收 75.07亿元，同比下滑14.2%；归母净利润2.63亿元，同比大幅减少79.37%；扣非净利润2.39亿元，降幅 达81.24%。 此前，陕西黑猫（601015）焦化股份有限公司(下称"陕西黑猫"，601015.SH)也公布了2024年年报，公 司归母净利润-11.58亿元，同比暴跌126.21%；扣非净利润-11.54亿元，同比降低130.16%。值得一提的 是，这是陕西黑猫上市以来最差的成绩单，公司利润亏损再创新高。 卓创资讯（301299）焦炭分析师刘璐璐对《华夏时报》记者表示，焦炭行业近年盈利面临较大压力，主 要有两方面原因，一是各地环保压力下对煤耗指标的控制，部分焦炉被迫停产淘汰或者持续限产压力； 二是国内钢铁行业供应过剩局面下，国内粗钢逐年压减，焦炭需求逐年萎缩，焦企议价能力下降。 产能过剩 除了价格下跌，销量下滑这一趋势也在多家企业的经营数据中得到印证。 2024年，从 ...