Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry [2] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry experienced a decline of 2.33% from February 9 to February 13, 2026, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.69 percentage points [6][9] - The industry is currently at a historical low valuation, with a PE ratio of 21X, ranking 24th among Shenwan's primary industries [5][18] - High-end liquor sales showed strong performance during the Spring Festival, with leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye experiencing significant growth, while mid-range products faced a decline of approximately 20% [6][7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - From February 9 to February 13, 2026, the food and beverage sector's relative return was -2.5% over one month, -5.3% over three months, and -21.6% over twelve months [4] - The overall market indices showed positive movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.41% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.39% during the same period [9] Valuation Metrics - As of February 13, 2026, the food and beverage industry's PE ratio stands at 21X, with sub-sectors like other alcoholic beverages (52X), snacks (37X), and health products (34X) having higher valuations, while liquor (19X), beer (22X), and dairy (23X) are lower [5][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. Industry leaders with stable demand and strong risk resilience 2. Companies actively developing new products, channels, and consumption scenarios 3. Segments of the mass consumer goods industry that have shown growth potential and reasonable valuations after adjustments [7][44] - Specific companies to watch include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Anjuke Foods, Andeli, Yanjinpuzi, Babi Foods, Yanjing Beer, and Yili [7][44]

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Beer is expected to release its 2025 annual report soon, which will provide comprehensive financial data, dividend plans, and business details, indicating a stable outlook for the company in the coming years [2] Financial Performance - For 2025, the company reported a revenue of 14.722 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.231 billion yuan, with a year-on-year sales growth of 0.68%, outperforming the industry average [2] - The formal annual report may further clarify the dividend plan, with a cash dividend rate of 104.21% for 2024 and an estimated mid-year dividend of approximately 630 million yuan for 2025 [2] Recent Events - A contract dispute with Chongqing Jiawei was resolved through mediation in December 2025, with the plaintiff withdrawing the lawsuit on January 12, 2026, eliminating long-term uncertainties and providing stability for procurement arrangements for the next three years (2026-2028) [3] - Following the settlement, the company reversed previously accrued liabilities, which is expected to increase the net profit for 2025 by approximately 19.0796 million yuan, potentially enhancing operational efficiency [3] Strategic Outlook - The company anticipates stable growth in volume and price for 2026, planning to accelerate the launch of new products (such as seasonal craft beers) and focus on non-traditional beverage channels (like convenience stores and instant retail) [4] - Benefiting from a decrease in raw material costs and policy support for on-premise consumption recovery, the gross margin is expected to maintain an upward trend [4] - Continuous optimization of product structure (with an increased proportion of premium beers) and expansion into cross-category beverages (such as flavored sodas) will also be pursued [4] Industry Policies and Environment - With the promotion of policies to boost service consumption, the demand for on-premise beer channels (such as dining and nightlife) is expected to gradually recover [5] - However, attention should be paid to intensified industry competition and fluctuations in raw material costs, as these factors may impact the company's future profitability [5]

Core Insights - Corona brand is closely linked with sports and celebrations, becoming the first global beer sponsor for the 2024 Olympics with its non-alcoholic beer, Corona Cero [1] - The brand has announced its athlete ambassador team for the 2026 Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics, showcasing top winter athletes and reinforcing its global influence as an Olympic partner and a highly valuable beer brand [1] Group 1: Marketing Initiatives - The "TIME CERO" initiative encourages athletes to maintain balance and relaxation amidst competition, featuring "Cero Stress Zones" in the Olympic Village and creating spaces like Corona Hotel and Casa Corona for athletes to rejuvenate [2] - Corona has launched Olympic collaboration products, including Corona Extra and Corona Cero, in the Chinese market, enhancing its appeal as a premium beer brand [2][4] Group 2: Consumer Engagement - The brand has created an immersive sunset experience in Altay, Xinjiang, to extend its beach lifestyle concept into winter, allowing ski enthusiasts to capture their perfect winter sunset moments [4] - Corona's marketing actions, including the announcement of ambassadors and local activities, effectively embody the "just for this moment" philosophy while showcasing its resource integration capabilities as an Olympic partner [8][9] Group 3: Brand Positioning - Corona is recognized as a leading global beer brand, operating in 180 countries, and has been ranked as the "most valuable beer brand" in the Kantar BrandZ 2024 and 2025 global brand value rankings [10] - The brand emphasizes outdoor living and a connection to nature, aiming to protect the environment and has achieved a net-zero plastic footprint, reinforcing its commitment to sustainability [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) with a target price of HKD 10 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 5.76 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.59 billion for the year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.1% and 9.8% respectively. The normalized net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 670 million, down 14.4% year-on-year. For Q4 alone, revenue and normalized EBITDA were USD 1.07 billion and USD 170 million, with a year-on-year decline of 4.2% and 24.7% respectively [1][5]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of USD 750 million, maintaining the same level as the previous year, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 153.4% [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Growth Rates**: - Total revenue for 2025 was USD 5,764 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of -7.7%. Projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are USD 5,921 million, USD 6,033 million, and USD 6,150 million respectively, with expected growth rates of 2.7%, 1.9%, and 1.9% [1][10]. - **Net Profit and Growth Rates**: - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 was USD 489 million, down 32.6% year-on-year. Projections for the following years are USD 533 million, USD 563 million, and USD 580 million, with growth rates of 9.0%, 5.7%, and 3.0% respectively [1][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - The EPS for 2025 is projected to be USD 0.04 for the years 2026 to 2028, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 27 in 2025 to 23 in 2028 [1][10]. - **Dividend and Yield**: - The company maintains a high dividend strategy with a dividend yield of approximately 5.7% based on the current dividend payout [1][5]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the company faced challenges in the Chinese market, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 11.4% in Q4 due to weak demand in core on-premise channels. However, the Indian market showed strong growth, contributing significantly to overall revenue [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Moku Brewery (TAP.N) has shown an active stock performance with an upward trend, closing at $54.38 on February 12, 2026, reflecting a 6.36% increase over the past five days, influenced by market sentiment and institutional actions, although trading volume remains stable [1] Institutional Perspectives - Ratings for Moku Brewery are mixed among institutions, with only 26% of 23 institutions recommending "buy or hold," 61% suggesting "hold," and 13% leaning towards "sell," with an average target price of $50.90, which is below the current stock price. However, Evercore analysts maintained a "buy" rating and raised the target price from $50 to $55, indicating potential for marginal improvement [2] Recent Events - The beer industry is facing challenges such as weak demand and intensified competition in the premium segment. The shift of younger consumers towards healthier lifestyles is putting pressure on global beer sales. Leading companies are managing this pressure through cost control. Moku Brewery primarily focuses on mass-market products and has less pricing power and brand influence compared to leaders like Budweiser, making it unlikely to break through previous high points in the short term [3]

Group 1: Financial Data and Trends - As of the end of January 2026, the total social financing scale was 449.11 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [1] - The broad money supply (M2) increased by 9.0% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the nominal GDP growth, supporting stable growth in the real economy [1] - In January, resident deposits decreased by 3.39 trillion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 2.56 trillion yuan in deposits [1] Group 2: Robotics Rental Industry - The Chinese robot rental platform, Qingtian Rental, reported over 1,000 orders received for the Spring Festival period, with total orders expected to exceed 5,000, representing an 80% increase in overall GMV [2] - Qingtian Rental is implementing a "City Partner Strategy" to address delivery challenges due to explosive growth and is maintaining a monthly financing rhythm to adapt to market changes [2] Group 3: Beer Industry Performance - Anheuser-Busch InBev's Budweiser Asia and Heineken both reported declines in sales revenue, net profit, and volume for 2025, indicating a common trend of underperformance [3][4] - Heineken's 2025 net revenue was 28.75 billion euros (approximately 235.53 billion yuan), with a net profit of 1.88 billion euros (approximately 15.44 billion yuan), both showing consecutive declines [3] - Budweiser Asia's revenue for 2025 was 5.764 billion USD (approximately 40.31 billion yuan), down about 11.59% year-on-year, with a net profit of approximately 489 million USD (about 3.42 billion yuan), marking a 35.47% decline [3] Group 4: Real Estate Market - In January, the second-hand residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, with specific declines in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [9] - The price adjustments in the second-hand housing market have been ongoing for over four years, with recent data indicating a narrowing of the decline, suggesting improved price-performance ratios for buyers [9] - Notably, cities like Yangzhou and Zhanjiang experienced a month-on-month increase in second-hand residential prices in January [9] Group 5: Gold Market Regulation - Shenzhen's financial management authorities issued a set of ten prohibitive measures to regulate gold market activities, following previous incidents and market volatility [11] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange also announced adjustments to margin requirements and trading limits for gold and silver contracts to manage risks during the Spring Festival [11] - As of February 13, the spot gold price fluctuated between 4,900 and 5,000 USD per ounce, down approximately 10% from a previous high of 5,595 USD [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) with a target price of HKD 10 [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of USD 5.76 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.59 billion for the year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.1% and 9.8% respectively. The normalized net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 670 million, down 14.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of USD 750 million, maintaining a high payout ratio of 153.4% [1]. - The report highlights that the company is undergoing operational adjustments while maintaining a strong dividend policy, which is expected to attract investors [1]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - Total revenue for 2025 was USD 5,764 million, with a projected growth of 2.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in both 2027 and 2028 [1]. - Normalized net profit is expected to recover to USD 533 million in 2026, with further growth to USD 563 million in 2027 and USD 580 million in 2028, after a decline of 32.6% in 2025 [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is projected to remain stable at USD 0.04 from 2025 to 2028 [1]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 27 in 2025 to 23 by 2028, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 1.3 to 1.1 over the same period [1]. Market Performance - The report notes that the company faced challenges in the Chinese market, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 11.4% in Q4 2025, primarily due to weak demand in core on-premise channels [5]. - In contrast, the Indian market showed strong growth, contributing over two-thirds of the revenue with a year-on-year growth of over 20% in the P&SP product segment [5]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the Chinese market in 2026, with ongoing efforts to enhance distribution channels and focus on premium products [5].

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser InBev's stock price increased by 3.81% to $80.20 on February 12, 2026, driven by the release of its 2025 annual financial report [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of $6.858 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.34%, significantly higher than the growth rate in 2024 [2] - Although the operating revenue slightly decreased by 0.27% year-on-year, organic growth reached 2.0%, indicating the positive impact of the company's premiumization strategy on profitability [2] - Non-beer business sales increased their share, with non-alcoholic beer revenue growing by over 20% [2] - The digital platform BEES achieved a total gross merchandise volume (GMV) of $49 billion, covering 28 markets [2] Institutional Perspective - On February 13, Bank of America Global Research raised Budweiser InBev's target stock price from €69 to €80, reflecting institutional recognition of the company's performance [3] - The company's stock trading volume on the same day was $454 million, with a turnover rate of 0.29%, indicating a high level of market activity [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Budweiser Group is optimistic about the Chinese market, driven by its long-standing presence and confidence in its brand and products, as well as China's commitment to deepening opening-up and optimizing the business environment [2] - The company recognizes the evolving consumer behavior in China, where consumers are pursuing a better life with a pragmatic and positive attitude, creating opportunities for innovation and development [2] - Budweiser China is integrating global resources with local practices to expand beer consumption scenarios and cultural connotations, exemplified by partnerships with global IPs like FIFA World Cup and Tomorrowland [2] Group 2 - The Spring Festival is highlighted as a crucial opportunity for brands to connect deeply with consumers, and Budweiser launched a campaign themed "马上百威，马年有奔头" to resonate with the festive spirit [3] - The campaign incorporates themes of "wealth" and "health" into product design and utilizes digital interactions to convey sincere wishes during family reunions, enhancing consumer engagement [3] - Looking ahead, Budweiser China aims to deepen its strategic layout in China, focusing on localized innovation and high-quality growth to meet consumer demands with a diverse product portfolio [3]

Group 1 - The company has established a financial shared service center in 2024, focusing on centralized accounting and fund settlement processing [1] - Some units have already gone live on the shared platform, with the remaining units being implemented in an orderly manner [1]