研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/3/19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,302 | -8↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1143177 | -28781↓ | | 期货市场 | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -10,866 | +1829↑ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -5 | -4↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 477596 | -1192↓ HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 167 | -3↓ | | | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,300.00 | -10.00↓ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,280.00 | 0.00 | | 现货市场 | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,340.00 | 0.00 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,2 ...

Group 1: Steel Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The inventory inflection point of steel has emerged, and steel prices will fluctuate widely. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but inventory pressure remains a key factor restricting steel prices. The price will follow raw material fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to the peak - season inventory depletion and raw material price changes [1]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures main contract oscillated. The national building materials transaction volume was 88,800 tons, and the spot transaction was weak with strong market wait - and - see sentiment. This week's data shows that steel inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, building materials production and sales increased significantly, and hot - rolled coil production and sales increased slightly [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials maintain a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory slightly higher than the same period. Plate production is relatively high, and demand is also resilient, but inventory pressure is greater than that of building materials. The improvement of steel supply - demand in the peak season and the inventory depletion amplitude will affect prices. The deterioration of the Middle - East situation indirectly supports the bottom of steel prices [1]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for steel is a unilateral oscillation, with no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - External stimuli have eased, and iron ore prices will oscillate and correct. In the short term, the supply pressure of iron ore has increased, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly intensified. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is loose, and high inventory suppresses price performance [3]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price fell slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports decreased slightly. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 518,000 tons, a 10.69% decrease compared to the previous period [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: High ore prices have continuously stimulated iron ore supply, and the liquidity of some iron ore at ports has been released. After the end of steel mill production restrictions, molten iron production will increase. The short - term supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is not obvious, and high inventory will continue to suppress prices. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation, non - mainstream iron ore shipments, iron ore inventory, and negotiation progress [3]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for iron ore is a unilateral oscillation, with no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [4]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The sentiment affects the market, and coking coal and coke prices will oscillate. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the downstream raw material inventory is high, which suppresses purchasing enthusiasm. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is limited, and the price is relatively stable in the short term [5][6]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated. Some coal varieties in the production area were affected by the price increase in the external market, and the market sentiment improved. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was stable at around 1,100 yuan/ton. The spot market of coke at ports was stable, and the trading atmosphere in the domestic trade spot market was average [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic coal mine复产 has accelerated, and the supply is relatively loose. The high downstream raw material inventory suppresses purchasing enthusiasm, so coking coal will oscillate in the short term. For coke, the coking profit is acceptable, coke enterprises have resumed production one after another, and steel mills will also increase production steadily later. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is limited, and the price is relatively stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Middle - East situation on coal price sentiment [6]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for coking coal and coke is a unilateral oscillation, with no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [7]. Group 4: Thermal Coal Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market sentiment has improved, and thermal coal prices have rebounded. The supply of coal is increasing, while consumption is weakening due to seasonal factors. The price will oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [8]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The prices of some pit - mouth coal in the main production areas have stabilized and increased, and the port coal prices are basically the same. Affected by the price increase in the external market, the market sentiment has improved, and some terminals and intermediate traders have replenished their inventories. The demand for low - calorie coal at ports is better than that for medium - and high - calorie coal, and the overall inquiry demand has increased. The import cost of imported coal is seriously inverted, and downstream tenders have decreased [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The coal supply is increasing after the end of the Two Sessions, while consumption is weakening due to seasonal factors. The short - term increase in oil and gas prices has not been fully transmitted to coal, so non - power coal demand in the off - season has a greater impact on coal supply and demand. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [8]. - **Strategy**: Not provided

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.39% to close at 4006.55 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 2.02% at 13901.57 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.11% to 3309.10 points, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index dropped by 2.44% to 1339.03 points. Overall, there were 504 stocks that rose, while 4953 stocks fell, with 30 stocks remaining unchanged. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 21,110 billion yuan, a decrease of 649 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, only coal, oil and petrochemicals, and public utilities saw gains, with increases of 1.82%, 1.34%, and 0.34% respectively. Conversely, industries such as non-ferrous metals, steel, basic chemicals, construction materials, and comprehensive sectors led the declines, with decreases of 6.10%, 4.08%, 3.75%, 3.62%, and 3.10% respectively [1]. Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors that performed well today included optical modules (CPO), selected coal mining, central enterprise coal, oil and gas extraction, hydropower, high transfer, thermal power, central enterprise banks, East Data West Calculation, IDC (computing power leasing), natural gas, Jin Te Gu, photovoltaic inverters, Huawei HMS, and selected electric power stocks. In contrast, sectors such as selected rare metals, industrial metals, lithium mines, rare earths, and phosphorus chemicals experienced a pullback [2].

Group 1: Dividend Progress of Constituent Stocks - As of March 18, 2026, in the SSE 50 Index, 1 company is in the proposal stage, 0 in the decision stage, 0 in the implementation stage, 1 has distributed dividends, and 2 do not distribute dividends [1] - In the CSI 300 Index, 17 companies are in the proposal stage, 0 in the decision stage, 0 in the implementation stage, 2 have distributed dividends, and 23 do not distribute dividends [1] - In the CSI 500 Index, 17 companies are in the proposal stage, 1 in the decision stage, 0 in the implementation stage, 0 have distributed dividends, and 66 do not distribute dividends [1] - In the CSI 1000 Index, 24 companies are in the proposal stage, 0 in the decision stage, 0 in the implementation stage, 0 have distributed dividends, and 223 do not distribute dividends [1] Group 2: Dividend Yield Comparison by Industry - The current dividend yield statistics show that the coal, banking, and steel industries rank the top three in terms of dividend yield among the disclosed dividend proposals [2][3] Group 3: Realized and Remaining Dividend Yields - As of March 18, 2026, the realized dividend yield for the SSE 50 Index is 0.00%, with a remaining dividend yield of 2.82% [8] - The realized dividend yield for the CSI 300 Index is 0.00%, with a remaining dividend yield of 2.14% [8] - The realized dividend yield for the CSI 500 Index is 0.00%, with a remaining dividend yield of 1.17% [8] - The realized dividend yield for the CSI 1000 Index is 0.00%, with a remaining dividend yield of 0.89% [8] Group 4: Tracking of Index Futures Premium/Discount - As of March 18, 2026, the annualized discount for the IH main contract is 2.04%, for the IF main contract is 6.75%, for the IC main contract is 9.65%, and for the IM main contract is 11.28% [1][3] - The tracking of index futures premium/discount levels will consider the impact of constituent stock dividends on the index point drop [2][3] Group 5: Methodology for Dividend Point Estimation - The methodology for estimating dividend points considers the dividend distribution of constituent stocks and their impact on index futures pricing [23][25] - The estimation process involves obtaining accurate data on constituent stock weights, dividend amounts, and total market capitalization [26][28] - The prediction of dividend amounts is based on historical net profit distributions and dividend payout ratios [29][30]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Affected by the high opening of coking coal, steel prices maintained a high - level volatile trend. Downstream demand is gradually picking up, and there is a premium for non - standard specifications of rebar. The steel market is in a state of seasonal de - stocking. The supply and demand of steel are seasonally increasing, and the inventory is seasonally decreasing, with the supply - demand basically balanced. However, the upward elasticity of demand is not large, domestic demand is slightly weak, but exports are acceptable. After the end of last week's production restrictions, production will rebound significantly this week, which will test the height of demand. Recently, due to supply - side disturbances of iron ore and coking coal, raw material prices have strengthened, pushing up steel prices. Pay attention to whether rebar and hot - rolled coils can effectively break through 3150 and 3300 respectively [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract rose first and then fell. Geopolitical conflicts still have an impact, and commodities generally declined. Recently, the acceleration of steel mill复产 and the limited liquidity of some spot varieties have supported the futures price in the short term. The iron ore shipments from Guinea have increased significantly month - on - month, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the shipment growth. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipments have rebounded month - on - month, with significant increases in Australia and non - mainstream mines. Among the four major mines, FMG and BHP have significant month - on - month increases. The impact of rainfall in Brazil has weakened, and there is no subsequent rainfall in Western Australia. On the demand side, last week's hot metal production decreased month - on - month. The previously overhauled steel mills are concentrated in recent resumptions, and the impact of steel mill overhauls has declined significantly. It is expected that the hot metal production will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of inventory, the steel mill inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the port inventory has increased slightly. Affected by the decline in arrivals and the restocking of downstream steel mills and the increase in port clearance, the port inventory has gradually changed from inventory accumulation to slight de - stocking, but the high absolute value of inventory will still restrict the price increase space. In the future, under the influence of geopolitical shocks, steel mill resumptions, and tightened spot liquidity, the main iron ore contract will fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the operating range referring to 780 - 840 yuan/ton [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke**: Yesterday, the coke futures showed a high - level decline. On the spot side, the mainstream steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts on March 4, which was successfully implemented on March 6. With the rise of coking coal, coke has a bottom - building and rebound expectation, and the port price fluctuates with the futures. On the supply side, the coke price adjustment lags behind that of coking coal. After the price cut, the coking profit declined. During the Two Sessions, the coking enterprise's operation decreased slightly and will gradually recover after the sessions. The sharp rise in chemical product prices makes up for the coke loss. On the demand side, after the end of the Two Sessions, the steel mill production restrictions were lifted, the hot metal production increased, and the coking production increased synchronously. With the cost push, the coke price also has a bottom - building and rebound expectation. In terms of inventory, the coal mines and ports are accumulating inventory, while the coking enterprises, steel mills, coal washing plants, and ports are all reducing inventory. The overall inventory is seasonally decreasing, but the upstream inventory accumulation is bearish. The coke supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term. In terms of strategy, the conflict between the US and Iran drives the sharp rise of energy commodities, giving a rising drive to coal and coke as energy substitutes, but the sustainability still needs to pay attention to the improvement of domestic supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices, with the range referring to 1650 - 1850, and the arbitrage suggestion is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures showed a high - level decline. On the spot side, the Mongolian coal quotation fluctuates with the futures, and the post - holiday restocking demand is gradually picking up. The conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate, causing continuous surges in crude oil and natural gas. On the supply side, coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the daily coal production is gradually increasing. In terms of imported coal, the port inventory continues to accumulate and remains at a relatively high level after the resumption of customs clearance. On the demand side, after the end of the Two Sessions, the steel mill production restrictions were lifted, the hot metal production will increase, the steel price rebounded at a low level, and the restocking demand will gradually recover later. In terms of inventory, the steel mills are reducing inventory, while the coking plants and ports are accumulating inventory. The overall inventory is slightly increasing at a medium level. In terms of strategy, the geopolitical conflict causes significant fluctuations in energy, natural gas, and downstream chemical products. Energy inflation and substitution expectations will support coking coal. The spot reaction lags, and it is necessary to focus on macro - impacts and industrial supply - demand changes. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices, with the range referring to 1100 - 1300, and the arbitrage suggestion is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - **Ferrosilicon**: Yesterday, the main ferrosilicon contract declined significantly, and commodities generally fell. On the spot side, the manufacturer's inventory pressure is limited, and production is mainly for order fulfillment. Fundamentally, last week's ferrosilicon production increased slightly month - on - month. In the production areas, Ningxia and Qinghai resumed production, and Shengjin reached full production after resuming production this week. Qinghai is mainly for order fulfillment. The hedging profit did not meet expectations, and the manufacturer's participation decreased. In the future, the ferrosilicon production will continue to increase, but the high electricity price in Qinghai will still suppress the operating rate, and the supply growth rate may be slow. In terms of steel - making demand, the hot metal production decreased month - on - month. The previously overhauled steel mills are concentrated in recent resumptions, and it is expected that the hot metal production will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of magnesium and aluminum production, the daily output is at a relatively low level but has decreased month - on - month, the demand support has weakened, the manufacturers are mainly for order fulfillment, and exports are affected and difficult to conclude transactions. In terms of cost, the Lan charcoal price is stable, the raw coal price and downstream demand are supported, and the electricity prices in the production areas are differentiated, but the profit levels have all been repaired. In the future, in the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is changeable. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are both increasing, the supply - demand contradiction is limited, but there is no driving force for a trending market. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with the range referring to 5700 - 6200 [7]. - **Ferromanganese**: Yesterday, the main ferromanganese contract declined. Commodities generally fell. Affected by energy costs and manganese ore support, ferromanganese has performed stronger than ferrosilicon recently, and the price difference between ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has widened. On the spot side, the mainstream steel tenders have not been priced yet, and the market sentiment is relatively cautious. Fundamentally, the ferromanganese supply has increased slightly month - on - month. The production in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia is stable, Yunnan has resumed production due to electricity price subsidies, and the valley - electricity costs in Guangxi, Guizhou and other places have increased. The manufacturers still have little enthusiasm to start production; it is expected that there will be new ferromanganese plant production capacity coming on - line in the second quarter, and the supply will continue to increase marginally. In terms of demand, last week's hot metal production decreased month - on - month. The previously overhauled steel mills are concentrated in recent resumptions, and it is expected that the hot metal production will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of cost, some manganese ore sources at the port are in a tight supply - demand balance, and the downstream short - term transactions are difficult. The overall demand is gradually weakening. The manganese ore price fluctuates due to factors such as the resumption of production in the production area. The conflict between the US and Iran has caused an increase in costs such as freight and mining. In the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is changeable. The supply and demand of ferromanganese are both increasing, and the cost is rising, but the supply growth still suppresses the price increase height, and there is also no driving force for a trending decline. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with the range referring to 5800 - 6400 [7]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3260 yuan/ton, 3200 yuan/ton, and 3280 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton compared with the previous value. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of rebar are 3140 yuan/ton, 3165 yuan/ton, and 3196 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 8 yuan/ton, - 3 yuan/ton, and - 1 yuan/ton compared with the previous value [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3290 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, and 3280 yuan/ton respectively, with no change compared with the previous value. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of hot - rolled coil are 3310 yuan/ton, 3311 yuan/ton, and 3321 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 3 yuan/ton compared with the previous value [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2980 yuan/ton with no change, and the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton with no change. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar is 3271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar is 3158 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton [1]. - The profit of East China hot - rolled coil is 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the profit of North China hot - rolled coil is - 40 yuan/ton with no change; the profit of South China hot - rolled coil is 20 yuan/ton with no change. The profit of East China rebar is - 10 yuan/ton with no change; the profit of North China rebar is - 60 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the profit of South China rebar is 160 yuan/ton with no change [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal production is 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.3 tons or 2.8% compared with the previous value. The production of five major steel products is 821.0 tons, an increase of 23.7 tons or 3.0% compared with the previous value [1]. - The rebar production is 195.3 tons, an increase of 22.0 tons or 12.7% compared with the previous value. Among them, the electric - furnace production is 29.0 tons, an increase of 17.3 tons or 148.2% compared with the previous value; the converter production is 166.3 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons or 2.9% compared with the previous value [1]. - The hot - rolled coil production is 295.3 tons, a decrease of 5.9 tons or 1.9% compared with the previous value [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1974.9 tons, an increase of 22.9 tons or 1.2% compared with the previous value. The rebar inventory is 894.2 tons, an increase of 18.5 tons or 2.1% compared with the previous value. The hot - rolled coil inventory is 471.6 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons or 0.0% compared with the previous value [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume is 9.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or 8.2% compared with the previous value. The apparent consumption of five major steel products is 798.1 tons, an increase of 106.7 tons or 15.4% compared with the previous value [1]. - The apparent consumption of rebar is 176.8 tons, an increase of 78.6 tons or 80.0% compared with the previous value. The apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil is 295.4 tons, an increase of 13.8 tons or 4.9% compared with the previous value [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara Powder, PB Powder, Brazilian Mixed Powder, and Jinbuba Powder are 925.3 yuan/ton, 849.0 yuan/ton, 845.2 yuan/ton, and 886.2 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 2.2 yuan/ton, - 4.4 yuan/ton, - 4.3 yuan/ton, and - 4.3 yuan/ton compared with the previous value [4]. - The 05 - contract basis of Karara Powder, PB Powder, Brazilian Mixed Powder, and Jinbuba Powder is 114.3 yuan/ton, 38.0 yuan/ton, 34.2 yuan/ton, and 75.2 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +3.3 yuan/ton, +1.1 yuan/ton, +1.2 yuan/ton, and +1.2 yuan/ton compared with the previous value [4]. - The 5 - 9 spread is 32.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.0 yuan/ton or 3.2% compared with the previous value; the 9 - 1 spread is 21.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.4% compared with the previous value [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of Karara Powder, PB Powder, Brazilian Mixed Powder, and Jinbuba Powder at Rizhao Port are 951.0 yuan/ton, 793.0 yuan/ton, 823.0 yuan/ton, and 738.0 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 2.0 yuan/ton, - 4.0 yuan/ton, - 4.0 yuan/ton, and - 4.0 yuan/ton compared with the previous value [4]. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price is 107.1 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.7 dollars/ton or 0.6% compared with the previous value [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2215.0 tons, a decrease of 394.9 tons or 15.1% compared with the previous value. The global shipment volume (weekly) is 3048.8 tons, an increase of 151.0 tons or 5.2% compared with the previous value [4]. - The national monthly import volume is 9763.8 tons, a decrease of 2200.9 tons or 18.4% compared with the previous value [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons or 2.8% compared with the previous value. The 45 - port daily average clearance volume (weekly) is 317.9 tons, an increase of 6.8 tons or 2.2% compared with the previous value [4]. - The national monthly pig iron production is 0.0 tons, a decrease of 6072.2 tons or 100.0% compared with the previous value. The national monthly crude steel production is 0.0 tons, a decrease of 6817.7 tons or 100.0% compared with the previous value [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory is 17187.52 tons, an increase of 69.7 tons or 0.4% compared with the previous value. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8929.1 tons, a decrease of 82.5 tons or 0.9% compared with the previous value [4]. - The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 23.0 days, with no change compared with the previous value [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi Grade - 1 wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) is 1681 yuan/ton with no change. The 05 and 09 contracts of coke are -

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan threaded steel, as well as Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils from March 12 to March 18, 2026. There were price changes in some areas, such as a 10-unit increase in Shanghai threaded steel and 20-unit and 10-unit increases in Tianjin and Shanghai cold-rolled coils respectively [1]. Output and Inventory - Not provided in the given content. Basis and Spread - Not provided in the given content.

2026 年 3 月 19 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【宏观及行业新闻】 国家统计局数据显示，2026 年 2 月份，总体看 70 个大中城市商品住宅销售价格环比降幅继续收窄、 同比下降。1—2 月份全国房地产开发投资 9612 亿元 同比下降 11.1%。1—2 月份规模以上工业增加值同 比实际增长 6.3%。2026 年 1—2 月份全国固定资产投资同比增长 1.8%。（数据来源：财联社） 螺纹钢：市场情绪偏弱，宽幅震荡 热轧卷板：市场情绪偏弱，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅（%） | | | RB2605 | 3,140 | -3 | -0.10 | | | HC2605 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Affected by the high opening of coking coal, steel prices maintained a high - level volatile trend. Downstream demand is gradually picking up, and there is a price increase for non - standard specifications of rebar. Supply and demand in the steel industry are seasonally increasing, and inventories are seasonally decreasing, with basic balance in supply and demand. However, the upward elasticity of demand is not large, and domestic demand is slightly weak while exports are okay. After the end of production restrictions last week, production will rebound significantly this week, testing the height of demand. Recently, due to supply - side disturbances of iron ore and coking coal, raw material prices have strengthened, pushing up steel prices. Pay attention to whether rebar and hot - rolled coils can effectively break through 3150 and 3300 respectively [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract rose and then fell. Geopolitical conflicts still cause disturbances, and commodities generally declined. Recently, the acceleration of steel mill复产 and the limited liquidity of some spot varieties support the futures price in the short term. The iron ore shipment from Guinea increased significantly month - on - month, and the sustainability of the shipment increase needs attention. In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipment increased month - on - month, with significant increases in Australia and non - mainstream mines. The impact of rainfall in Brazil has weakened, and there will be no rainfall in Western Australia in the future. On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased month - on - month last week. Steel mills that had maintenance before are resuming production intensively recently, and the impact of steel mill maintenance has declined significantly. It is expected that the molten iron output will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of inventory, the steel mill inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and the port inventory increased slightly. Affected by the decline in arrivals and the restocking of downstream steel mills and the increase in port clearance, the port inventory has gradually changed from inventory accumulation to slight inventory reduction, but the high absolute inventory value will still restrict the price increase space. In the future, under the influence of geopolitical shocks, steel mill复产, and tightened spot liquidity, the main iron ore contract will fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the operating range referring to 780 - 840 yuan/ton [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, the coke and coking coal futures prices fell from high levels. On the spot side, the mainstream steel mills started the first - round price cut for coke on March 4, which was successfully implemented on March 6. With the rise of coking coal, coke has a bottom - building and rebound expectation, and port prices fluctuate with futures. On the supply side, coke price adjustments lag behind coking coal. After the price cut, coking profits declined. During the Two Sessions, coke enterprise start - up decreased slightly and will gradually recover after the sessions. The sharp rise in chemical product prices makes up for the coke losses. On the demand side, after the end of the Two Sessions, steel mill production restrictions were lifted, molten iron output increased, and coke production increased synchronously. With the cost push, coke prices also have a bottom - building and rebound expectation. In terms of inventory, mines and ports are accumulating inventory, while coke enterprises, steel mills, coal washing plants, and ports are all reducing inventory. The overall inventory is seasonally decreasing, but the upstream inventory accumulation is bearish. The supply and demand of coke are basically balanced in the short term. In terms of strategy, the conflict between the US and Iran drives the sharp rise of energy commodities, giving a rising drive to coal and coke as energy substitutes, but the sustainability still needs to pay attention to the improvement of domestic supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices, with the range referring to 1650 - 1850. For coking coal, energy inflation and substitution expectations will support it. The spot reaction lags, and it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices, with the range referring to 1100 - 1300, and the arbitrage suggestion is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Industry - Yesterday, the main silicon iron contract fell significantly, and commodities generally declined. On the spot side, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is limited, and they mainly produce according to orders. In terms of fundamentals, the silicon iron production increased slightly month - on - month last week. In the production areas, Ningxia and Qinghai resumed production. After resuming production this week, Shengjin reached full production, and Qinghai mainly produces according to orders. The hedging profit did not meet expectations, and the participation of manufacturers decreased. In the future, the silicon iron production will continue to increase, but the high electricity price in Qinghai will still suppress the start - up rate, and the supply growth rate may be slow. In terms of steelmaking demand, the molten iron output decreased month - on - month last week. Steel mills that had maintenance before are resuming production intensively recently, and it is expected that the molten iron output will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of magnesium and aluminum production, it is at a relatively low level but has decreased month - on - month, and the demand support has weakened. The export is affected, and it is difficult to conclude transactions in the short term, and the overall demand is marginally weakening. In terms of cost, the Lan charcoal price is stable, and the raw coal price and downstream demand are both supported. Affected by factors such as production area复产, the price of silicon ore fluctuates. In the future, in the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is changeable. The supply and demand of silicon iron both increase, and the supply - demand contradiction is limited, but there is no driving force for a trend - type market. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with the range referring to 5700 - 6200. - Yesterday, the main silicon manganese contract declined. Affected by energy costs and manganese ore support, silicon manganese has been stronger than silicon iron recently, and the price difference between silicon iron and silicon manganese has widened. On the spot side, the mainstream steel procurement prices have not been set, and the market sentiment is cautious. In terms of fundamentals, the silicon manganese supply increased slightly month - on - month. Production in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia remained stable, and production in Yunnan resumed due to electricity price subsidies. In Guangxi, Guizhou and other places, the valley - electricity cost increased, and manufacturers still have little enthusiasm to start production. It is expected that there will be new silicon manganese plant production capacity coming on - line in the second quarter, and the supply will continue to increase marginally. In terms of demand, the molten iron output decreased month - on - month last week. Steel mills that had maintenance before are resuming production intensively recently, and it is expected that the molten iron output will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of cost, some manganese ore sources at ports are in a tight supply - demand balance, and the downstream short - term transaction is difficult. The manganese ore price fluctuates due to factors such as the US - Iran conflict causing an increase in shipping and mining costs. In the future, in the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is changeable. The supply and demand of silicon manganese both increase, and the supply growth rate restricts the price increase height, while there is also no driving force for a trend - type decline. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with the range referring to 5800 - 6400 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3260, 3200, and 3280 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +10, 0, and 0 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. Rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3140, 3165, and 3196 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 8, - 3, and - 1 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3290, 3220, and 3280 yuan/ton respectively, with no change compared to the previous value. Hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3310, 3311, and 3321 yuan/ton respectively, with a change of - 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2980 yuan/ton, with no change. The slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, with no change. - The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar is 3271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar is 3158 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. - The profit of East China hot - rolled coil is 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the profit of North China hot - rolled coil is - 40 yuan/ton, with no change; the profit of South China hot - rolled coil is 20 yuan/ton, with no change. - The profit of East China rebar is - 10 yuan/ton, with no change; the profit of North China rebar is - 60 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the profit of South China rebar is 160 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output is 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.3 tons or 2.8% compared to the previous value. - The output of five major steel products is 821.0 tons, an increase of 23.7 tons or 3.0% compared to the previous value. - The rebar output is 195.3 tons, an increase of 22.0 tons or 12.7% compared to the previous value, among which the electric - furnace output is 29.0 tons, an increase of 17.3 tons or 148.2%, and the converter output is 166.3 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons or 2.9%. - The hot - rolled coil output is 295.3 tons, a decrease of 5.9 tons or 1.9% compared to the previous value [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1974.9 tons, an increase of 22.9 tons or 1.2% compared to the previous value. - The rebar inventory is 894.2 tons, an increase of 18.5 tons or 2.1% compared to the previous value. - The hot - rolled coil inventory is 471.6 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons or 0.0% compared to the previous value [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume is 9.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or 8.2% compared to the previous value. - The apparent demand of five major steel products is 798.1 tons, an increase of 106.7 tons or 15.4% compared to the previous value. - The apparent demand of rebar is 176.8 tons, an increase of 78.6 tons or 80.0% compared to the previous value. - The apparent demand of hot - rolled coil is 295.4 tons, an increase of 13.8 tons or 4.9% compared to the previous value [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 925.3, 849.0, 845.2, and 886.2 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 2.2, - 4.4, - 4.3, and - 4.3 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. - The 05 - contract basis of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 114.3, 38.0, 34.2, and 75.2 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 3.3, 1.1, 1.2, and 1.2 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. - The 5 - 9 spread is 32.0, an increase of 1.0 or 3.2% compared to the previous value; the 9 - 1 spread is 21.0, an increase of 0.5 or 2.4% compared to the previous value [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port are 951.0, 793.0, 823.0, and 738.0 yuan/wet ton respectively, with changes of - 2.0, - 4.0, - 4.0, and - 4.0 yuan/wet ton compared to the previous value. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price is 107.1 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.7 dollars/ton or 0.6% compared to the previous value [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2215.0 tons, a decrease of 394.9 tons or 15.1% compared to the previous value. - The global shipment volume (weekly) is 3048.8 tons, an increase of 151.0 tons or 5.2% compared to the previous value. - The national monthly import volume is 9763.8 tons, a decrease of 2200.9 tons or 18.4% compared to the previous value [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons or 2.8% compared to the previous value. - The 45 - port daily average clearance volume (weekly) is 317.9 tons, an increase of 6.8 tons or 2.2% compared to the previous value. - The national monthly pig iron output is 0.0 tons, a decrease of 6072.2 tons or 100.0% compared to the previous value. - The national monthly crude steel output is 0.0 tons, a decrease of 6817.7 tons or 100.0% compared to the previous value [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory is 17187.52 tons, an increase of 69.7 tons or 0.4% compared to the previous value. - The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8929.1 tons, a decrease of 82.5 tons or 0.9% compared to the previous value. - The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 23.0 days, with no change compared to the previous value [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) is 1681 yuan/ton, with no change. The coke 05 and 09 contracts are - 11 and 1803 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 7 and - 7 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The 05 and 09 basis are 13 and - 69 yuan/ton respectively [6]. Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) is 1230 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton or 2.5% compared to the previous value. The coking coal 05 and 09 contracts are 1722 and 1282 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10 and - 22 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The 05 and 09 basis are 74 and - 14 yuan/ton respectively [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.9 tons, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous value. The daily average output of 247 steel mills is 47.0 tons, with no change. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample mines is 873.9 tons, an increase of 12.6 tons or 1.5% compared to the previous value, and the clean coal output is 445.9 tons, an increase of 2.7 tons or 0.64% compared to the previous value [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons or 2.8% compared to the previous value. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.9 tons, with no change [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory is 984.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or 0.0% compared to the previous value. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants is 100.4 tons, a decrease of 9.9 tons or 8.9% compared to the previous value. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 687

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "oscillating operation" [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the weekly fundamental data and the downstream demand situation, and the rebound height is limited [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Steel Export - In February 2026, China exported 4.63 million tons of steel sheets, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6%; from January to February, the cumulative export was 9.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.5% [1] Steel Production Cost and Profit - This week, after the blast furnace maintenance in Tangshan's mainstream sample steel mills ended, the cost decreased. The ex - factory price of common billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, and the steel mills were on the verge of profit and loss with reduced losses [1] - On March 18, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,403 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 7 yuan/ton, and the average profit loss was 86 yuan/ton [1] Automobile Market - From March 1 - 15, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 0.561 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 21% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales have been 3.14 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 19% [1] Steel Price Support Factors - Recently, the rise in raw materials has provided cost - side support for steel prices, and the rise of the black metal sector is also driven by inflation in the overall commodity market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the threat from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to attack multiple energy facilities in the Middle East led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices and inflation pressure; the US PPI data exceeded expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting had a hawkish tone, causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to rise and global risk appetite to cool significantly. Domestically, China's economy rebounded better than expected from January to February, with exports far exceeding expectations and inflation continuing to recover. The government's work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. In the short term, the stock index will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to changes in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the implementation of the Two Sessions policies, and market sentiment [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index and government bonds will fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude; among commodity sectors, black metals will have a short - term oscillating rebound, non - ferrous metals will oscillate in the short term, energy and chemical products will be oscillating and strong in the short term, and precious metals will oscillate in the short term, all requiring a cautious approach [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas, the threat to energy facilities and the hawkish Fed led to a rise in inflation and a decline in risk appetite. Domestically, the economy and inflation were better than expected, but policy targets and intensity were lower than in 2025. The stock index will oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical and policy changes. Assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities will have different short - term trends [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors like communication services, AI, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The economy and inflation were better than expected from January to February, but due to geopolitical shocks and the hawkish Fed, the stock index will oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - On Wednesday night, the precious metals market fell sharply. Due to the threat to energy facilities, rising inflation expectations, and the hawkish Fed, the US dollar index strengthened, and precious metal prices weakened. They will oscillate in the short term, and a cautious wait - and - see attitude is recommended [4]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot market rebounded slightly, and the futures price rose and then fell. The decline in crude oil prices led to a slowdown in the rise of steel prices. Demand was weak but improving, and supply would remain high. It is recommended to treat it with an oscillating mindset and beware of the risk of a fall after a rise [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices fell slightly. The daily average pig iron output decreased, but there was an expectation of resumption of production after the Two Sessions. The global iron ore arrival volume decreased, and the shipping volume increased. The short - term upward space of iron ore prices may be limited, and attention should be paid to the risk of a fall after a rise [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices rebounded slightly, and the futures prices fell. The manganese ore spot was firm. The supply of silicon manganese had a slight change in production capacity utilization, and the downstream demand was recovering. The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [7]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Since 2026, copper prices have been oscillating at a high level. The core contradiction lies in the mine end, but the probability of extreme shortage is low. Refined copper production has a high growth rate, and downstream demand is suppressed, with inventories accumulating [8]. - **Aluminum**: The non - ferrous sector was weak. Domestic aluminum supply was high, and inventories were accumulating. Overseas supply was tight due to the Middle East situation, resulting in a large price difference between domestic and overseas [8]. - **Zinc**: The zinc ore processing fee in some regions rebounded, and the import ore TC decreased. Domestic smelting production was at a relatively high level, and overseas production will recover in 2026. Demand was not optimistic, and inventories were accumulating [9]. - **Lead**: The production of primary and secondary lead increased seasonally, and demand entered the off - season. LME and domestic lead inventories were at high levels [10]. - **Nickel**: The cost supported the MHP price, and the RKAB quota in Indonesia decreased. Nickel prices had strong support below but limited upward momentum. Inventories at home and abroad were at high levels [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin increased as the resumption of production in Myanmar accelerated and smelting enterprises resumed work. Demand was differentiated, and inventories increased [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate fell. The price of lithium ore decreased, and the social inventory was de - stocked. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is not advisable to chase the rise [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price of industrial silicon fell. It was priced close to the cost, and attention should be paid to the cost support [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price of polysilicon fell. The inventory was at a high level, and the price was expected to be weakly oscillating [14]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Iranian oil and gas facilities were attacked, causing the oil price to rise significantly. The short - term oil price will remain strong and volatile [15]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price followed the rise in oil price. The inventory was low, and the supply was low. The short - term absolute price will fluctuate with the oil price [15]. - **PX**: The PX price was high due to the shortage of naphtha. Although there were some factors suppressing the upward trend, the oil price was the main logic [16]. - **PTA**: The PTA price followed the rise in PX, and the inventory pressure decreased. However, the profit of the middle and lower reaches was suppressed, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol rose, but the inventory was high. If exports are used for de - stocking, the price may rise [17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price followed the energy and chemical sector to be strongly oscillating. The downstream profit was suppressed, and the inventory increased [17]. - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market was strong, and the port market had a weakening basis. The supply was worried due to the conflict, and the inventory decreased. The overall pattern was strong [18]. - **PP**: The PP price was sorted out in a small range. The supply decreased, and the price was supported. Attention should be paid to the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE was adjusted. The downstream demand was increasing, but the profit was compressed. The supply was tight, and the price was firm [19]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market was weakly adjusted. The daily output was high, and the price was expected to return to an oscillating range [19][20]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The overnight soybean price rose. The rise in oil price and the expected biofuel policy supported the price. Attention should be paid to the estimated planting area at the end of the month [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The import of soybeans decreased seasonally, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased, supporting the soybean meal basis. The supply of rapeseed was expected to be loose, suppressing the market sentiment [21]. - **Oils and Fats**: The international oil price and biofuel policy supported the performance of oils and fats. The palm oil price was supported by increased exports and decreased production. The soybean oil basis was stable, and the rapeseed oil basis was slightly down [22]. - **Corn**: The corn price oscillated, and the bullish sentiment slowed down. The increase in imported barley and the release of grain sources limited the upward risk preference [22]. - **Pigs**: The pig industry was in a period of capacity adjustment. The demand was improving marginally but still in the off - season. The price had a sign of stopping falling, and the futures price was expected to oscillate weakly in a range [23].