. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/5/16 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 16 日星期五 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | 研究员：王伟 | 1.贵金属市场：昨日，因美国经济数据疲软、美元走弱，伦敦金周四收涨 1.98%，报 | | | 3239.6 美元/盎司。伦敦银最终收涨 1.3%，报 32.63 美元/盎司。受外盘驱动，沪金主力 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 合约收涨 1.22%，报 754.32 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 1%，报 8134 元/千克。 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 2.美元指数：美元指数下跌，最终收跌 0.16%，报 100.88。 | | | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率回吐前两日涨幅，收报 4.449%。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 4.人民币汇率：人民币兑美元汇率在近期高位盘整，最终收涨 0.03%，报 7.2067。 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, the overall supply of nickel elements is in surplus, with significant upward pressure but cost support at the bottom. It is expected to show a weak oscillatory trend in the near - term range, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on rallies [3]. - For the stainless - steel market, although the price rebounded due to the impact of the Philippine nickel ore export ban and tariff adjustments, the overall supply of stainless steel is in surplus, with large upward pressure. It is expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is also to sell and hedge on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 15, 2025, the main nickel contract 2506 opened at 126,100 yuan/ton and closed at 123,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.64% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 137,729 lots, and the open interest was 63,702 lots [1]. - The main nickel contract showed a downward trend. The trading volume and open interest increased slightly compared to the previous trading day. China's social financing scale and new RMB loans from January to April were lower than market expectations, while the M2 money supply growth rate increased by 1 percentage point in April. In the spot market, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased slightly in the morning, but the nickel price fell again during the day. Downstream enterprises mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was average. The spot premiums of various brands were mostly stable. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 205 tons to 23,344 tons, and LME nickel inventories increased by 714 tons to 199,146 tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly operate within the range. - Cross - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 15, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2506 opened at 13,025 yuan/ton and closed at 12,995 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 128,580 lots, and the open interest was 127,690 lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract also showed a downward trend. The trading volume decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased. The shortage of nickel ore supply still exists. The domestic trade premium for nickel ore in May (Phase II) is expected to remain at + 26 - 27, and the domestic trade base price has increased by 0.65 - 1 US dollars, with the overall price rising slightly. There were no new nickel - iron transactions recently. In the spot market, the stainless - steel price on the futures market fell, the inquiry and trading atmosphere weakened significantly, and the transactions were mainly small orders for rigid demand. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,300 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,250 yuan/ton. The premium for 304/2B was 305 - 505 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 941.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Cross - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [6].

原油大跌，集运偏强 2025 年 5 月 15 日 申银万国期货有限公司 研究所 联系人：马思远 从业资格号：F03141554 联系方式：021-5058 6040 地址：上海东方路 800 号 宝安大厦 7、8、10 楼 邮编：200122 传真：021 5058 8822 网址：www.sywgqh.com.cn 原油：sc 下跌 4.98%。美国劳工部 13 日发布数据显示，美国 4 月份消 费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨 2.3%，环比数据由上个月的-0.1%扭转为上 涨 0.2%。美国 4 月 CPI 的同比数据低于市场预期的 2.4%。美国石油学 会数据显示，上周美国原油库存增加，同期美国汽油库存和馏分油库 存减少。截止 2025 年 5 月 9 日当周，美国商业原油库存增加 428.7 万 桶；同期美国汽油库存减少 137.4 万桶；馏分油库存减少 367.5 万桶。 库欣地区原油库存减少 85 万桶。美国能源部周初报告说，上周美国石 油战略储备 3.996 万桶，增加了 50 万桶。关注低油价给与美国制裁委 股指：股指回调，美容护理板块领涨，计算机、通信和电子板块领跌， 全市成交额 1.19 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The long - term upward trend of copper remains intact, with high - level volatility. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024. Trade negotiations and global trade order are key concerns [2][8]. - Aluminum prices are relatively high, with the supply growth rate expected to decline in 2025. The price may be high in the first half and low in the second half, and macro factors may amplify price fluctuations [9][15]. - Zinc consumption has a weak outlook, and the price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [17][36]. - Tin fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to remain high - level volatile. The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [37][48]. - For nickel, supply is in surplus, and costs are rising. The price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [53][69]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. - Gold prices may continue to hit new highs, with international prices predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [91][103]. - Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [103][110]. - The industrial silicon futures market is developing steadily, and the industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue in 2025 [111][117]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market - **Global Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the growth of global copper concentrate production was lower than that of demand. In 2025, many mining companies lowered production targets. The shortage of copper concentrate supply will take time to ease, and overseas medium - and long - term refined copper demand is expected to grow [2]. - **China's Supply and Demand**: Domestic scrap copper direct utilization is decreasing, and supply is expected to be tight in 2025. Refined copper production growth is constrained by raw material supply, and terminal demand is driven by power grids, home appliances, and automobiles, while the real estate sector is a drag [3][6]. - **Macro - market Analysis**: Capital inflows into copper due to its industrial and financial attributes. Trump's potential 25% tariff on copper would increase short - term price volatility and change the global supply chain [7]. - **Price Forecast**: The long - term upward trend of copper remains, but short - term policy uncertainty has a great impact. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024 [8]. Aluminum Market - **Supply Analysis**: Future new electrolytic aluminum projects are mainly in Asia. China's production growth rate will slow down in 2025, and global production growth may decline. China's imports may also decrease [10][11]. - **Demand Analysis**: Aluminum consumption growth may slow down in 2025, with exports expected to decline and domestic demand growth difficult to improve [12]. - **Price Forecast**: As long as China's production ceiling is not lifted, there is price support, but cost reduction and weak demand limit the upside. Prices may be high in the first half and low in the second half [15]. Zinc Market - **Supply Analysis**: Zinc concentrate production has been declining, but exploration investment is slowly recovering. Import volume has increased, and processing fees have rebounded [18][23]. - **Demand Analysis**: Overseas zinc consumption in various fields is still weak, while domestic consumption shows resilience, but there are potential impacts from tariffs on exports [30][31]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [36]. Tin Market - **2024 Market Analysis**: In 2024, tin prices rose, inventories decreased, production increased, and consumption improved [37][38]. - **2025 Trend Outlook**: Global tin ore supply may decline in 2025, and there will be a shortage of over 20,000 tons. The price is expected to remain high - level volatile [41][44]. - **Price Forecast**: The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [48]. Nickel Market - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore supply is mainly from Indonesia. Supply is in surplus, and demand lacks highlights. China's stainless steel production supports nickel consumption [53][56]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost of the nickel industry is rising, and the price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [60][69]. Lithium Market - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, lithium supply is increasing, and demand is also high. There is a surplus in the market, but the surplus is narrowing [75][84]. - **Price Forecast**: Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. Gold Market - **Market Review**: From 2018 - 2025, various factors such as trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts have stimulated the rise of gold prices [91]. - **Price Forecast**: International gold prices are predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce, and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [103]. Silver Market - **Fundamentals**: In 2024, global silver supply increased, and demand decreased. In 2025, the supply shortage is expected to further narrow [103]. - **Price Forecast**: Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [110]. Silicon Market - **Futures Market**: The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are developing steadily, with increasing trading volume and participation [111][112]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2025, the silicon industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue [114][117].

市场分析 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-15 出口订单大增 不锈钢价格连续上涨 镍品种 2025-05-15日沪镍主力合约2506开于123230元/吨，收于125230元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.80%，当日成交量为 136563手，持仓量为63077手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘跳空低开后振荡上涨，日盘开盘后继续振荡上涨，午后走平，收大阳线。成交量较上个交易日 大幅减少，持仓量有所减少。中国1-4月社会融资规模增量16.34万亿元，比上年同期多3.61万亿元，市场预估为16.58 万亿元，1-3月为15.18万亿元。中国1-4月新增人民币贷款10.06万亿元，预估为10.47万亿元，1-3月为9.77万亿元。 4月末货币供应量M2同比增长8%，较上月提高1个百分点。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日上涨约1075 元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均出现相应上调，日内镍价再度上幅反弹，下游企业刚需采购为主，精炼镍现货成交整 体有所好转，各品牌现货升贴水多数持稳。其中金川镍升水变化-50元/吨至2150元/吨，进口镍升水变化50元/吨至 200元/吨，镍豆升水为 -450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为2 ...

有色金属日报 2025-5-15 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 铜 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 国内权益市场走强，商品氛围偏暖，贵金属价格走弱，铜价冲高回落，昨日伦铜收跌 0.34%至 9592 美 元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 78650 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 4075 至 185575 吨，注销仓 单比例下滑至 41.8%，Cash/3M 升水 15.8 美元/吨。国内方面，昨日上期所 ...

行业 镍日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 【印尼内贸矿基准价】5 月下半期 HMA 为 15415 美元/吨，上涨 366 美元/吨。 SMM 预计，5 月下半期印尼 HPM 内贸矿基准价(MC35%)为： Ni1.2%品位镍矿 HPM 价格为 15.63 美元/湿吨，较 5 月上半期 HPM 上涨 0.37 美元/湿吨； Ni1.6%品位镍矿 HPM 价格为 27.25 美元/湿吨，较 5 月上半期 HPM 上涨 0.65 每日报告 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 镍观点： 随着中美关税贸易紧张氛围进一步缓 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 5 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 短线看弱 | 中美关系趋于缓和，利空金价 | | 镍 2506 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 上游镍矿强势，下游不锈钢弱势 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看弱 核心逻辑：5 月 12 日盘后《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布，中美贸易缓和，短期避险需求下 降， ...

| | | 日度策略参考 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 品神 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 股指 | 周济 | 4月以来,在国家政策、中央汇金资金的托底作用下,股指已收复 4月2日关税冲击形成的技术缺口,当前追涨风险收益比不高。持 | | | | | 有的多头可考虑冲高减仓。 | | | 国债 | 黑汤 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 宏观金融 | | | 空间。 | | | 真金 | 農汤 | 短期市场风险偏好回暖,金价或进入盘整;但中长期上涨逻辑尚 未改变。 | | | | | 整体跟随黄金,但关税超预期结果将利好白银商品属性,因此短 | | | 日银 | 震荡 | 期银价韧性或强于黄金。 | | | 同G座 | 農汤 | 中美贸易谈判结果超预期,短期市场情绪有所好转,但铜价已明 | | | | | 显回升，价格或震荡运行。 | | | | 着% | 电解铝自身产业面无明显矛盾,在中美贸易谈判结果超预期情况 铝价延续反弹走势。 | | | 氧化铝 | 看头 | 铝土矿及氧化铝供应扰动有所提升,氧化 ...