高盛闭门会-首席闪辉前瞻 3 月会议要点，26 年四大投资 主题和近期资金面分析 20260228 摘要 2026 年中国 GDP 增速目标预计维持在 4.5%-5%区间，与市场 4.8% 的预测基本一致，表明经济增速边际放缓，但整体平稳，政府债券发行 规模预计与 2025 年接近，消费品以旧换新补贴规模边际缩减。 全国两会预计延续提升消费能力和增加特定服务供给的主线，可能包含 最低工资或基础养老金上调等福利提升措施，以"持续聚焦、渐进推 进"为特征，通过支持服务业供给端提升质量并扩大规模，以带动服务 消费。 2026 年两会适逢"十五五"规划开局，科技创新和消费的重要性进一 步提升，明确提出未来五年提高居民消费率，需重点跟踪行业政策或量 化目标，识别尚未被市场充分计价的政策支持方向。 民营经济政策基调预计保持支持性，监管取向将继续强调高质量发展， 核心在于培育优质企业、提升股东回报并引导长期投资氛围，市场更偏 好"慢牛"路径。 Q&A 下周全国两会最需要重点关注哪些宏观政策信号，尤其是增长目标与政府债券 发行额度可能如何设定？ 最关键的两个指标是 2026 年 GDP 增长目标与全国人大批准的政府债券发行总 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - In February, 152 game licenses were approved, with 146 domestic and 6 imported games passing the review. Key products include Tencent's "Snow in the World" and others. As of February, 334 game licenses have been approved in 2026, indicating a stable issuance rhythm and a solid foundation for healthy industry development [2][20] - The rapid development of AI applications, combined with a recovery in entertainment consumption, presents investment opportunities in leading internet companies in Hong Kong, the gaming industry, and the film and cultural tourism sectors. Beneficiaries include Tencent, Alibaba, and others [21][6] Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office this week are "Flying Life 3" with 94,822.7 thousand yuan, "Biao Ren: Wind Rising in the Desert" with 34,787.9 thousand yuan, and "Silent Awakening" with 26,230.1 thousand yuan [22][23] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games by revenue are "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Gold Shovel Battle." The top three Android games by popularity are "Heartbeat Town," "Diver Dave," and "Minecraft: Mobile Edition" [24][25] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcast index are "Taiping Year," "Eliminate Evil," and "Love in the Pure Era," with indices of 80.3, 79, and 78.8 respectively [26][27] Variety and Animation - The top variety show is "Now Departing Season 3" with a broadcast index of 69.6, followed by "The Strongest Brain Season 13" and "Hello Saturday 2026" [28][29] - The top three animations by viewership index are "Happy Hammer," "Xian Ni," and "Beyond Time," with indices of 288.1, 234.4, and 229.5 respectively [30]

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月01日 百度集团-SW（09888.HK）25Q4 财报点评 优于大市 AI 新业务增速强劲，新增 50 亿回购、将加大资本开支 总览：收入同比略降,AI 新业务增速强劲。2025Q4，百度集团实现总收入 327 亿元，同比-4%。百度核心收入 261 亿元，同比-6%，爱奇艺收入 68 亿元， 同比+3%。2025Q4，百度集团实现经调整归母净利润 39 亿元，同比-42%。经 调整归母净利润率 12%。其中，百度核心实现经调整归母净利润 39 亿元，同 比-43%，经调整归母净利润率 15%。 风险提示：宏观经济下行导致广告大盘增速不及预期的风险；AI 大模型 实际应用效果不及预期的风险；政策风险等。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 133,125 | 129,079 | 134,097 | 142,713 | 153,770 | | (+/-%) | -1.1% | -3.0% | 3.9% | ...

Group 1: AI Disruption Concerns - Nvidia's Q4 2025 earnings exceeded market expectations by 5.5%, yet its stock price fell over 8% in three trading days, marking the largest decline in three years[3] - Since November 2022, Nvidia's stock price has diverged from its EPS, indicating ongoing market concerns about AI disruption[3] - The capital expenditure of major tech companies remains high, with a projected total of $670 billion for 2026, reflecting a growth rate of over 60%[3] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Resilience - A-share companies have a higher proportion of tangible assets compared to their US counterparts, indicating stronger resilience against potential AI disruptions[4] - The manufacturing and materials sectors in China contribute a higher value-added percentage compared to other developed economies, enhancing their attractiveness to global investors[4] - In the US, heavy asset sectors like utilities, energy, and materials have significantly outperformed light asset sectors in Q4 2025, with revenue and profit exceeding expectations by over 5% and 15% respectively[3] Group 3: Resource Commodities and Geopolitical Factors - The US government is increasing its focus on strategic resources, as evidenced by the "Treasury Plan" and Zimbabwe's suspension of lithium exports, indicating a rising demand for key minerals[5] - Current US copper inventory is approximately 30% of annual consumption, suggesting room for growth compared to historical levels[5] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could lead to oil prices rising to $90 per barrel, which may reverse the downward trend in US inflation[6]

[Table_Page] 宏观经济|定期报告 2026 年 3 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 怎么看所谓 2028 年"全球智能危机"的观点 宏观周度述评系列（2026.02.24-03.01） [报告摘要 Table_Summary：] 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1注：未特别说明，报告数据来自 wind，彭博 | [Table_Author] 分析师： | 郭磊 | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | | SFC CE No. BNY419 | | | 021-38003572 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 陈礼清 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523080003 | | | 021-38003809 | | | chenliqing@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 陈嘉荔 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 | | | 021-38003674 | | | gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 钟林楠 | ...

Key Insights - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the AI sector during the Spring Festival, with major players like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent achieving significant user engagement and interaction through their AI applications [1][8] - The report discusses the advancements in autonomous driving, including legislative support in the US and significant developments from companies like Tesla and Waymo, indicating a growing market for self-driving technology [2][9] - The US Supreme Court's ruling against the "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the Trump administration is expected to impact trade dynamics significantly, affecting various sectors [3][10] Recent Key Events - ByteDance's AI model generated over 50 million new year avatars and achieved 19 billion interactions during the Spring Festival, showcasing its strong user engagement [1][8] - Alibaba's "Qianwen" app facilitated nearly 200 million orders during the holiday, with a notable user base of older adults successfully utilizing the service [1][8] - Tencent's user engagement metrics reached new highs, with over 50 million daily active users during the Spring Festival, reflecting the effectiveness of its promotional activities [1][8] Market Situation - The Hang Seng Index fell from 27,387 points at the end of January to 26,381 points by February 26, marking a decline of 3.7% [11] - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a more significant drop of 10.6% during the same period [11] - Net inflows from southbound trading reached 75.6 billion HKD in February, indicating a positive trend in capital movement [12] Current Investment Recommendations - Focus on growth-oriented real estate and energy companies such as Beike-W, China Qinfa, and Power Development, which are expected to perform well in the current market [21] - Consider companies benefiting from the adjustment of the Hong Kong Stock Connect, like Leshushi, which is positioned for growth in the African hygiene products market [21] - Internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent are recommended due to their advancements in AI and strong market positions [21] Company-Specific Insights - Beike-W (2423.HK) is positioned as a leader in the real estate brokerage sector, with expected net profits of 37.1 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth trajectory despite market challenges [22][24] - China Qinfa (0866.HK) is transitioning away from coal operations in Shanxi and focusing on its growing Indonesian coal business, with projected profits of 6.1 billion CNY by 2026 [25][26] - Leshushi (2698.HK) is a leading player in the African hygiene products market, with a projected net profit growth of 18.5% in 2025, driven by increasing market penetration [35][36] - Alibaba (9988.HK) is enhancing its AI capabilities with the launch of the Qwen3.5 model, which is expected to drive significant revenue growth across its platforms [39][40] - Tencent (0700.HK) is experiencing strong growth in its gaming and advertising segments, with a projected revenue increase to 7,530 billion CNY by 2025 [44][46]

"HALO"概念的背后：对 AI 的冷静认知 本周英伟达业绩超预期但股价大幅下行，去年 11 月以来 EPS 与股价走势的背离仍在延续，指向市场对于 AI 颠覆的担 忧仍在持续。这一现象的原因可能和 2022 年国内新能源相关资产的走弱相似性：彼时国内新能源资本开支仍在上升 且景气度较高，但 A 股整体 ROE 进一步走低，企业转型新能源增多，供给格局的恶化担忧让资本市场不再定价新能源 相关资产景气，转而定价产业矛盾激化的稳定能源资产（煤炭、火电）。类似的情况正在美国出现，科技巨头资本开支 仍在提升但中小企业盈利能力持续恶化，AI 并没有带来下游收入的提升，更多是大型企业的降本和切蛋糕的行为，这 就无法像科网泡沫时期由于应用的收入增长以支撑市场对于全产业链进行成长定价，但企业本身的资本开支会持续。 投资者的关注点一方面转向 AI 拉动的基础设施和资源品领域；一方面开始担忧 AI 对于整个高附加值+轻资产行业的 负面影响，同时随着"HALO"概念的提出，不易被 AI 取代的领域也成为了担忧下的避风港。今年以来美股重资产组 合表现显著强于轻资产组合，同时美股中能源、材料、工业、公用事业板块在 25Q4 有明显超预 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2026 年 3 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 如何看待港股持续疲软？ ——港股市场策略展望 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： （1）三月即将迎来解禁小高峰： 11 年年中、15 年下半年、19 年 3 月、 21 年二季度、22 年年中，解禁潮与港股下跌出现在相似时间段。26 年 3 月主要是有色金属、茶饮、汽车、医药等行业的解禁潮，中大型规模 公司将解禁 872 亿港元，高于去年年末的解禁高峰。由于港股通账户并 不能够参与打新，享受稀缺性公司的上市红利，却需要承受限售股解禁 带来的风险，这可能确实是南向资金对于 2026 年港股的主要担忧之一。 （2）港股年报业绩披露期限临近，存在业绩利空压力：财年与自然年一 致的港股公司需要在 3 月 31 日前披露年报业绩初步公告。 （3）次要因素—地缘政治摩擦升级：尽管美伊军事冲突升级，但对港股 冲击或有限，因假期全球风险偏好并未恶化，非美资产普遍走强；全球 资金更多通过增配油气对冲风险而非抛售股票。 ⚫ 何时能够利空出尽？ 观察窗口期：3 月中下旬，上述压制因素高峰过去，可能会利空出尽 ...

纳指跌1.18%！美股重挫，英伟达领跌，中概股普跌 熬夜看美股的朋友，昨晚估计都没睡踏实。前半夜还在盼着AI龙头再冲一波，后半夜直接被大盘砸懵，三大指数集体走弱，科技股成了重灾区，连 常年坚挺的英伟达都罕见大跌，整个市场一片绿油油，看得人心里拔凉拔凉。 本来以为只是小幅震荡调整，没想到跌得这么干脆利落，纳指直接跌超1%，芯片股、科技股全线躺平，中概股也没能独善其身，跟着一起回调。多 少投资者本想赚点海外市场的收益，结果一夜之间账户缩水，关灯吃面的段子又在投资圈里刷屏。 一、美股全线翻车！纳指跌1.18%，科技股集体躺平 据纳斯达克交易所官方数据，美东时间2月26日，纳斯达克综合指数单日大跌1.18%，收盘报22878.38点，单日蒸发273.7点，科技股成为下跌绝对主 力，把整个美股市场都拖入调整行情。标普500指数同步下跌0.54%，只有道琼斯指数勉强微涨0.03%，勉强维持一点面子。 大跌的核心原因很简单，利好出尽+资金获利了结。英伟达最新财报业绩亮眼，但市场早已提前透支涨幅，高位筹码松动，资金集中出逃。同时， 公司大额长期采购承诺引发市场对成本与需求持续性的担忧，双重压力下，股价直接大幅跳水。 英伟达作 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 1 Mar 2026 国泰海通香江策论 Global Macro Strategy 避险逻辑、韩流寒流，港股卖空占比高达 20%——国泰海通香江策论之数据周报 Safe-Haven Trades, Korea Siphoning Liquidity, HK SSR at 20% — GTHT Global Macro Strategy Weekly Data Update 张忆东 Yidong Zhang 周林泓 Amber Zhou 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang yd.zhang@htisec.com amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com yx.huang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 国泰海通香江策论之数据周报包含"流动性数据""重点研究报告荟萃""每日一图系列"三部分，旨在通过关键流动性指 标、精选研究观点与市场图表解析，集中呈现本周数据 ...