Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures 01 contract rose 0.91% overall, with the pre - settlement price at 5276 yuan/ton and the closing price at 5324 yuan/ton. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market is 4980 - 6600 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable compared to the previous trading day. The offer price of Shandong Yinxing is 5680 - 5700 yuan/ton [7]. - Arauco's August wood pulp export quotes were stable compared to June. The shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries in July increased month - on - month by 3.2% and year - on - year by 4.1%. China's pulp import volume in August decreased month - on - month by 7.9% and year - on - year by 5.6%. As of September 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.71% compared to the previous week. The downstream cultural paper market is running weakly, and the pulp market will continue to adjust with low - level fluctuations [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The 01 contract of pulp futures rose 0.91%. The 05 contract rose 0.76%, and the 09 contract rose 0.89%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market is 4980 - 6600 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable. Shandong Yinxing is quoted at 5680 - 5700 yuan/ton [7]. - **Industry Situation**: Arauco's August quotes were stable compared to June. In July, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major producing countries increased. China's pulp imports in August decreased. The inventory as of September 11 increased. The downstream cultural paper market has resumed production, but new orders are limited, and the pulp market will continue low - level fluctuations [8]. 2. Industry News - On September 11, the State Administration for Market Regulation approved the release of 622 recommended national standards and 6 recommended national standard modification orders, including 6 national standards in the papermaking field, which will improve the standard system and promote the healthy development of the industry [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, paper prices and price differences, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][28][29][32]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventories and the number of warehouse receipts. It is expected to remain weak in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 12, 2025, SP2601 was 5300 with a daily increase of 0.64% and a weekly decrease of 0.34%; SP2511 was 5016 with a daily increase of 0.40% and a weekly decrease of 0.71%; SP2509 was 4960 with a daily increase of 0.45% and a weekly decrease of 0.68% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On September 12, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.22%; Russian Needle was 5170 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.58%; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4180 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.48% [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: The quote for Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a monthly decrease of 2.70%; Japanese NBSK was 530 dollars, a monthly increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars with no monthly change [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a monthly decrease of 2.68%; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, a monthly increase of 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830 with no monthly change [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply - Import Volume**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a monthly decrease of 4.72%; broadleaf pulp was 135.1 tons, a monthly decrease of 5.85% [5] - **Supply - Domestic Production**: The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated slightly from July 31 to September 11, 2025 [5] - **Supply - Shipment Volume**: The pulp shipment volume to China in July 2025 was 158 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.00% [5] - **Inventory - Port Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of China's major pulp ports was 206.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a monthly decrease of 0.2% [5] - **Inventory - Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 24.5 tons, showing a slight change compared to previous periods [5] - **Demand - Finished Paper Production**: From July 31 to September 11, 2025, the production of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated slightly [5] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 12, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 154 with a quantile level of 0.877; the Silver Star basis was 634 with a quantile level of 0.879 [5] - **Import Profit**: On September 12, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 234 with a quantile level of 0.27; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 164 with a quantile level of 0.478 [5] Market Situation - **Supply Side**: Brazil's Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025. Chile's Arauco notified the August quotes, with the coniferous pulp Silver Star at 720 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star at 520 dollars/ton (supply reduced by 50%), and natural pulp Venus at 590 dollars/ton [5] - **Demand Side**: The current demand for paper products remains basically stable. Some double - offset paper and white cardboard manufacturers have issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be seen [5] - **Inventory Side**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of China's major pulp ports showed a narrow - range destocking trend [5] Strategy - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, and the pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts have not significantly decreased. It is expected to remain weak in the short term [5]

Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on September 12, 2025, was 4990.00, with a previous day's closing price of 5016.00 and a decline of -0.51834% [3] - The corresponding US dollar price was 611.31, and the basis for Shandong Yinxing was 675, while that for Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing was 690 [3] Group 2: Pulp Price and Profit Information - For pulp from different origins and brands, such as Golden Lion from Canada (CFR price of 780), Lion from Canada (CFR price of 730), and Yinxing from Chile (CFR letter of credit 90 - day price of 720), the import profits were -145.57, -533.29, and -197.83 respectively [4] Group 3: Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The same was true for the Shandong region [4] - The prices of cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and living paper (living index) also remained unchanged during this period [4] Group 4: Paper Profit Margin Information - The estimated profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and living paper on September 12, 2025, were 2.9521%, 18.9325%, -12.6626%, and 8.0245% respectively. The living paper profit margin increased by 0.2674 compared to previous days [4] Group 5: Pulp Price Spread Information - On September 12, 2025, the price spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood and waste paper were 1505.00, 265, 1840, and 4089 respectively [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 12 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 期货从业资格号：F03134307 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾 ...

| ITG 国贸期货 | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | STATE .. | | | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | 农产品研究中心 -- | 杨璐琳 | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | 2025/9/11 | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025年9月10日 | | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年9月10日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | 针叶浆银星 | SP2601 | 5272 | 0. 11% | -0. 98% | | | 5650 | -0. 88% | -1.22% | | 现货价 | 期货价格 SP2511 | 4996 | 0. 52% | -1.07% | | 针叶浆俄针 | 5170 | 0. 00% | -0. 58% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | SP2509 | 4938 | 0. 16% ...

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a daily paper pulp report dated September 11, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Research Team - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers such as Liu Youran (pulp), Li Jie (crude oil and asphalt), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (industrial silicon and polysilicon), Peng Jinglin (polyolefins), and Feng Zeren (glass and soda ash) [3][4] Group 3: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 01 contract was 5,284 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,000 - 6,650 yuan/ton, with the low - end price remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,700 yuan/ton [7] - Chile's Arauco Company announced the new August wood pulp export prices: softwood pulp Yinxing at $720/ton, natural pulp Jinxing at $590/ton, and hardwood pulp Mingxing at $520/ton, remaining stable compared to the June prices. In July, the chemical commodity pulp shipments of the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 7.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 4.1% and hardwood pulp up 11.1%. In July 2025, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports decreased by 1.9% month - on - month and increased by 19.2% year - on - year. In August, China's total pulp imports were 2.653 million tons, a decrease of 7.8% month - on - month and 5.5% year - on - year. As of September 4, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.52% month - on - month. In July, the cumulative year - on - year profit of the papermaking and paper products industry decreased by 21.9%, with the decline slightly expanding [8] - On the demand side, the new round of publication bidding for offset paper has not started, and the listing price on the first day was lower than expected, with large short - term fluctuations. The overall shipping and supply pressure in the pulp and paper market remains high, the peak demand season is not prosperous, the supply - demand contradiction has not improved, and the market is mainly in a low - level volatile operation [8] Group 4: Industry News - On September 10, after the resumption of production at Meilun Chemical Pulp Mill and Factories 5, 6, and 9, the Shouguang base made new progress. On September 8, the tissue paper production line of Factory 7 was successfully started. The factory is equipped with two international - class production lines, with core equipment imported from Andritz in Austria and Valmet in Finland. The paper machine has a width of 5,600 mm and an operating speed of 2,000 m/min, with advanced processes such as integrated double - layer headboxes and shoe presses, and a full - set of automated control systems. It can efficiently produce boxed facial tissues, roll papers, etc., and all quality indicators reach international advanced levels. As of now, the operating production lines at the Shouguang base are running smoothly, and the remaining production lines are planned to start operation before September 10, when the Shouguang base will fully resume full - load production capacity [9] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including those related to import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, softwood - hardwood price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][28][32]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from the relatively optimistic liquidity environment, and attention should be paid to the introduction of policies to promote service consumption [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and its short - term strengthening depends on the continuous improvement of internal and external environments [3]. - The phased correction of stock indices may be over, and they are expected to return to a relatively strong trend [3]. - The Treasury bond market should be operated with a band - trading strategy [5]. - The shipping index is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [11]. - Copper prices may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [15]. - Zinc should be on the sidelines for the time being [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively [19]. - Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply [19]. - Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. - Steel products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - Iron ore has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - It is recommended to lightly test long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. - Crude oil may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - LPG fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - MEG is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in methanol [39]. - PP has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - PE is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - PVC is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - Fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - Asphalt is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - Urea is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be relatively optimistic, which is beneficial to the bond market. Attention should be paid to policies to promote service consumption. Overseas, the long - term bond market has experienced a "Black September," and the focus is on the Fed's dot - plot [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by the US dollar index. It is expected to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic data [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The phased correction may be over, and stock indices are expected to return to a relatively strong trend due to the expected loosening of liquidity [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A band - trading strategy is recommended [5]. - **Shipping Index**: It is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Weak employment data boosts recession trading. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11]. - **Copper**: US non - farm data drags down copper prices, which may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [14][15]. - **Zinc**: It should be on the sidelines for the time being due to non - farm data falling short of expectations [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply, and a V - shaped rebound is expected [19]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: It has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: It is recommended to lightly test long positions, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - **PX - TA**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to hold long positions [39]. - **PP**: It has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **PE**: It is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - **PVC**: It is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Pure Benzene & Benzene Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50].

根据国家统计局公布的数据，林产品类别下的纸浆（进口针叶浆）2025年8月中旬市场价格为5767.9元/ 吨，同比下滑5.39%，环比下滑0.08%，纵观近5年同时期其价格，2022年8月中旬达到最大值，有7247.3 元/吨。 2019-2025年8月中旬纸浆（进口针叶浆）市场价格变动统计图 数据来源：国家统计局 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国再生纸浆行业市场现状调查及未来趋势研判报告》 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Pulp futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the spread between the November and January contracts is expected to narrow [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Pulp Price Data - On September 2, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2509 were 5344, 5042, and 4990 respectively, with daily changes of 0.15%, 0.04%, and 0.08% and weekly changes of -0.55%, -0.60% respectively [1] - Spot prices of coniferous pulp (Silver Star, Russian Needle) and broadleaf pulp (Goldfish) were 5720, 5200, and 4200 respectively, with daily changes of 0.35%, 1.96%, and 0.48% and weekly changes of -1.38%, 0.39%, and 1.20% respectively [1] - Outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 720, 530, and 590 dollars respectively, with monthly changes of -2.70%, 3.92%, and 0.00% respectively [1] - Import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5884, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with monthly changes of -2.68%, 3.87%, and 0.00% respectively [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.72% compared to June [1] - The pulp shipment volume to China in July 2025 was 140 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.30% compared to June [1] - On August 28, 2025, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 20.6 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 20.9 tons [1] - On August 28, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 208.4 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3% [1] - The inventory of the futures delivery warehouse on August 28, 2025, was 24.9 tons [1] - The production volumes of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard on August 28, 2025, were 20.50, 7.90, 28.18, and 32.10 tons respectively [1] Pulp Valuation Data - On September 2, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle and Silver Star were 158 and 678 respectively, with quantile levels of 0.881 and 0.898 [1] - On September 2, 2025, the import profits of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) and broadleaf pulp (Goldfish) were - 164 and - 144 respectively, with quantile levels of 0.368 and 0.503 [1] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - Supply: Brazilian Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025. Chilean Arauco notified the August quotes, with the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star at 720 dollars/ton, the supply of broadleaf pulp Star decreased by 50%, and the price of natural pulp Venus at 590 dollars/ton [1] - Demand: The current demand for paper products is basically stable. Some double - offset paper and white cardboard manufacturers have issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be observed [1] - Inventory: As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 208.4 tons, showing a destocking trend [1]