1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is in a weak supply - demand situation with continuous inventory accumulation expected in 2026. Attention should be paid to selling points from geopolitical situations [7][8]. - For asphalt, demand lacks highlights, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of Venezuelan raw materials which may be the main support [31]. - PTA is expected to rise first and then fall with a downward - shifted price center, while ethylene glycol is expected to be under pressure for shock consolidation [56]. - The polyolefin market follows the cost - driven logic, but the upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to structural short - selling opportunities [74]. - Pulp maintains a wide - range shock trend with pressure on the upside and support on the downside [110]. - The soda ash market is under pressure from increasing supply and shrinking demand, and is likely to continue a weak operation in the long - term, with short - term shock operation expected [153]. 3. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Weather speculation has ended, and the market is in shock. Supply - demand is weak, and attention should be paid to selling points from geopolitical situations [7]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Three major institutions' January reports show a pessimistic outlook for 2026, with continuous inventory accumulation. US refinery data is also bearish [8]. Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Crude oil supply - demand is weak, and Venezuelan situation drives the price up. Supply may decline slightly, and demand is weak [30]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Crude oil supply - demand is weak. Spot prices in some areas change slightly, and the average domestic price drops slightly. Supply and profit change, and demand is weak with inventory changes [32][33][34]. Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: PTA first falls and then rises, and is expected to rise first and then fall. Ethylene glycol first suppresses and then rises, and is expected to be under pressure [55][56]. - **Main Driving Forces**: Downstream consumption demand weakens. PTA supply is stable, and the price may rise first and then fall. Ethylene glycol has a trend of inventory accumulation and is expected to be under pressure [57][58][60]. Polyolefins - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Futures prices first fall and then rise. The market follows the cost - driven logic, but the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [73][74]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Polypropylene and polyethylene production increase. Production profits vary. Inventory shows a differentiated structure, and downstream start - up levels have different performances [75][79][84]. Pulp - **Market Review and Outlook**: The pulp contract price rises slightly, and the spot price is weak. It maintains a wide - range shock [109][110]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Pulp shipping volume, import volume, inventory, and downstream market have different changes [111][117][131]. Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The futures price first falls and then rebounds, with a stable price center. Supply pressure is high, demand shrinks, and inventory decreases. It is expected to be in shock in the short - term and weak in the long - term [146][153]. - **Soda Ash Market Situation**: Supply is at a high level, inventory decreases but the core contradiction remains, spot prices are stable, and downstream demand has different impacts [154][164][173].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp market shows a situation where the supply side has price adjustments from Chile's Arauco company, the demand side is stable with a slight decline in the output of major wood - pulp paper products, and the inventory side is in a continuous accumulation trend. It is suggested to consider shorting after a rebound as the upward space of pulp futures is limited [5][6] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On January 22, 2026, among pulp futures prices, SP2601 was 5534 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.11% and a weekly increase of 2.29%; SP2609 was 5416 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.37% and a weekly decrease of 1.28%; SP2605 was 5380 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.37% and a weekly decrease of 1.03%. Among spot prices, the silver star of softwood pulp was 5400 yuan/ton with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 2.70%; Russian softwood pulp was 5250 yuan/ton with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.94%; the goldfish of hardwood pulp was 4650 yuan/ton with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.06% [5] Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - Outer - disk quotes: The price of Chilean silver star was 700 dollars/ton, up 2.94% month - on - month; from a certain date, it changed to 540 dollars/ton, up 1.89%; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton with no change. Import costs: Chilean silver star was 5721 yuan/ton, up 2.91% month - on - month; Brazilian goldfish was 4425 yuan/ton, up 1.87%; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton with no change [5] Supply - side Data - In December 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 77.8 tons, up 7.31% month - on - month compared with 72.5 tons in November 2025; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.2 tons, down 23.40% month - on - month compared with 176.5 tons in November 2025. The shipment volume of pulp to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, up 3.00% compared with the previous period. The domestic output of hardwood pulp on January 22, 2026, was 24.9 tons, and the output of chemimechanical pulp was 23.8 tons. Chile's Arauco company's January softwood pulp offer was 710 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; the offer for hardwood pulp Star was 590 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; the offer for the natural pulp Venus was 620 dollars/ton with no change [5] Inventory Data - As of January 22, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 206.8 tons, up 5.4 tons from the previous period and 2.7% month - on - month. The inventory in the futures delivery warehouse was 13.9 tons. The port sample inventory has been in an accumulation trend for three consecutive weeks [5] Demand - side Data - The output of finished paper products: the output of offset paper was 19.60 tons, coated paper was 8.40 tons, tissue paper was 29.35 tons, and white cardboard was 35.40 tons. Pulp demand has been stable recently, with a slight increase in tissue paper prices and stable prices for other paper products, and the output of major wood - pulp paper products has declined [5] Strategy - Recently, there has been a concentrated registration of pulp futures warehouse receipts, and the upward space is limited. The price of hardwood pulp has slightly loosened. It is advisable to consider shorting after a rebound [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market shows a trend of inventory accumulation this cycle. The inventory in Qingdao Port, a major domestic pulp port, has a narrow - range increase, and the daily average shipping speed has increased compared to the previous cycle. The pulp futures have limited room for further increase, and the price of broad - leaf pulp has slightly declined. It is advisable to consider short - selling after a rebound [5][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 21, 2026, SP2601 was 5528 yuan/ton, down 0.40% day - on - day and up 1.06% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5396 yuan/ton, down 0.26% day - on - day and down 2.60% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5360 yuan/ton, down 0.30% day - on - day and down 2.44% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp silver star was 5600 yuan/ton, up 3.70% day - on - day and up 0.90% week - on - week; coniferous pulp Russian needle was 5250 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.87% week - on - week; broad - leaf pulp goldfish was 4650 yuan/ton, down 1.06% day - on - day and down 1.69% week - on - week [5] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean silver star was 700 dollars/ton, up 2.94% month - on - month; US dollar was 540 dollars/ton, up 1.89% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean silver star was 5721 yuan/ton, up 2.91% month - on - month; Brazilian goldfish was 4425 yuan/ton, up 1.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [5] 3.2 Supply Data - **Import Volume**: In December 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 77.8 tons, up 7.31% month - on - month; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 135.2 tons, down 23.40% month - on - month [5] - **Domestic Production**: As of January 15, 2026, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp was 25.2 tons; the domestic production of chemical mechanical pulp was 23.7 tons [5] - **Supply News**: Chile's Arauco company's January coniferous pulp offer was 710 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; broad - leaf pulp star offer was 590 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; natural pulp Venus offer was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] 3.3 Inventory Data - **Pulp Port Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 201.4 tons, up 0.3% month - on - month [5] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the inventory of the futures delivery warehouse was 14.9 tons [5] 3.4 Demand Data - **Finished Paper Production**: The production of offset paper was 20.30 tons; the production of coated paper was 8.30 tons; the production of tissue paper was 29.30 tons; the production of white cardboard was 38.40 tons [5] - **Demand Situation**: The demand side of pulp has been stable recently. The price of tissue paper has increased slightly, and the prices of other paper products are stable. The production of major wood - pulp paper is stable [5] 3.5 Strategy - Due to the recent concentrated registration of pulp futures warehouse receipts and limited upward space, combined with the slight decline in broad - leaf pulp prices, it is recommended to consider short - selling after a rebound [6]

Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Paper Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market conditions of various soft commodities are different, with some facing adjustment pressure and others showing recovery trends. Overall, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for most commodities [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today. After previous increases, it may continue to adjust due to general downstream demand and uncertain reduction in Xinjiang planting area. As of end - December, national cotton commercial inventory was 578.47 million tons, up 110.11 million tons month - on - month and 9.96 million tons year - on - year. In December, domestic cotton imports were 18 million tons, up 4.41 million tons year - on - year and 6.13 million tons month - on - month. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazilian market focuses on next season's production. Expected lower rainfall in Q1 and reduced sugar - making ratio may lead to less sugar production in 26/27 season. In China, Zhengzhou sugar continued to fall. Production and sales progress is slow. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [3] Apple - Futures price fluctuated. Spot price was stable. During Spring Festival stocking, procurement of farmers' apples was less. As of January 16, national cold - storage apple inventory was 655.57 million tons, down 6.93% year - on - year. Last week's de - stocking volume was 17.8 million tons, down 50.36% year - on - year. Adopt a bearish trading strategy [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU and 20 - number rubber NR futures prices rose slightly, butadiene rubber BR futures price rose sharply. Global natural rubber supply is in a reduction period. Chinese tire start - up rate rebounded last week. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased to 58.49 million tons. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [6] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp futures fell slightly today. Due to weak downstream demand, short - term fundamentals are average. As of January 15, Chinese paper pulp port inventory was 201.4 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from last period. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [7] Logs - Futures price fluctuated. Spot price was stable. External quotation decreased, and short - term arrival volume will reduce. As of January 16, national port log inventory was 257 million cubic meters, down 4.46% month - on - month. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The paper pulp market continues to show an inventory accumulation trend this cycle. The inventory of the mainstream domestic paper pulp port, Qingdao Port, shows a narrow - range inventory accumulation trend, and the daily average shipment speed in the port has increased compared with the previous cycle. Recently, the concentrated registration of paper pulp futures warrants limits the further upward space, and the price of broad - leaf pulp has slightly loosened. It is advisable to consider short - selling after a rebound [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - Futures prices: On January 20, 2026, SP2601 was 5550 yuan/ton, up 0.25% day - on - day and 2.36% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5410 yuan/ton, up 0.19% day - on - day and down 2.35% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5376 yuan/ton, up 0.26% day - on - day and down 2.11% week - on - week [5]. - Spot prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton, up 2.75% day - on - day and 0.90% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5250 yuan/ton, with no day - on - day change and down 1.87% week - on - week; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4650 yuan/ton, down 1.06% day - on - day and 2.11% week - on - week [5]. - Outer - disk quotes: Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars/ton, up 2.94% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 540 dollars/ton, up 1.89% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change [5]. - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 5721 yuan/ton, up 2.91% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4425 yuan/ton, up 1.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [5]. Supply Data - Import volume: In December 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 77.8 tons, up 7.31% month - on - month; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 135.2 tons, down 23.40% month - on - month [5]. - Domestic output: As of January 15, 2026, the domestic output of broad - leaf pulp was 25.2 tons, and the domestic output of chemimechanical pulp was 23.7 tons [5]. - Supply - side news: Chile's Arauco Company's January coniferous pulp offer was 710 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; broad - leaf pulp Star was quoted at 590 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; unbleached pulp Venus was quoted at 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. Inventory Data - Paper pulp port inventory: As of January 15, 2026, the inventory of mainstream Chinese paper pulp ports was 201.4 tons, up 0.7 tons from the previous period, a 0.3% month - on - month increase [5]. - Futures delivery warehouse inventory: As of January 15, 2026, the inventory was 14.9 tons [5]. Demand Data - Finished paper output: On January 15, 2026, the output of offset paper was 20.30 tons, coated paper was 8.30 tons, tissue paper was 29.30 tons, and white cardboard was 38.40 tons [5]. - Demand - side situation: The demand side of paper pulp has been stable recently. The price of tissue paper has increased slightly, while the prices of other paper products have been stable. The output of major wood - pulp paper products has been stable [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market continues to show a trend of inventory accumulation. In the current cycle, the inventory at Qingdao Port, a major domestic pulp port, has seen a narrow - range increase, with the daily average shipping speed in the port increasing compared to the previous cycle. - Recently, there has been concentrated registration of pulp futures warehouse receipts, limiting the further upside potential. The price of hardwood pulp has slightly weakened. It is advisable to consider short - selling after a rebound [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 19, 2026, SP2601 was 5231 yuan/ton, down 0.11% day - on - day but up 2.18% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 2.46% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5362 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 2.33% week - on - week [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton, up 2.75% day - on - day and 0.90% week - on - week; Russian coniferous pulp was 5250 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.87% week - on - week; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4650 yuan/ton, down 1.69% day - on - day and 2.11% week - on - week [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: The outer - disk quote for Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars/ton, up 2.94% month - on - month; Japanese return was 540 dollars/ton, up 1.89% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month [5]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5721 yuan/ton, up 2.91% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4425 yuan/ton, up 1.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons, up 4.92% month - on - month; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 176.5 tons, up 33.92% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, up 3.00% month - on - month. In terms of domestic production, the production volume of hardwood pulp on January 15, 2026, was 25.2 tons; the production volume of chemimechanical pulp was 23.7 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 201.4 tons, up 0.7 tons from the previous period and 0.3% month - on - month. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 14.9 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The production volume of double - offset paper was 20.30 tons; copperplate paper was 8.30 tons; tissue paper was 29.30 tons; white cardboard was 38.40 tons [5]. Market Situation - **Supply - side**: Chile's Arauco Company's January offer for coniferous pulp was 710 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; the offer for hardwood pulp Star was 590 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; the offer for natural pulp Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Demand - side**: The demand for pulp has been stable recently. The price of tissue paper has risen slightly, while the prices of other paper products have remained stable. The production volume of major wood - pulp paper products has been stable [5]. - **Inventory - side**: As of January 15, 2026, the inventory of major pulp ports in China was 201.4 tons, with a 0.7 - ton increase from the previous period and a 0.3% month - on - month increase [5].

1. Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report - Date: January 20, 2025 - Industry: Pulp [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoint - Short - term pulp prices are restricted by the sector and weak downstream procurement, showing a wide - range oscillating trend with both upward pressure and downward support [8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 05 contract was 5,374 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,362 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.22% [7] - **Spot Market**: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,900 - 5,700 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The price of Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5,400 - 5,420 yuan/ton [7] - **Foreign Offers**: In January, Chile's Arauco Company's foreign offers for wood pulp showed that softwood pulp Yinxing rose by 10 US dollars/ton to 710 US dollars/ton, natural pulp Jinxing remained flat at 620 US dollars/ton, and hardwood pulp Mingxing rose by 20 US dollars/ton to 590 US dollars/ton [8] - **Production and Sales Data**: In November, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 pulp - producing countries in the world decreased by 6.9% year - on - year, with softwood pulp down 7.6% and hardwood pulp down 7.3%. Shipments to the Chinese market decreased significantly [8] - **Inventory and Consumption Data**: In December 2025, the European wood pulp inventory was 759,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; the European wood pulp consumption was 722,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9% and a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In December 2025, the total pulp imports were 3.113 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. As of January 15, 2026, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 0.56% month - on - month [8] - **Demand Side**: In the cultural paper market, some idle production lines in South China plan to resume production. Some publishing orders have been picked up, weakening the rigid demand support for offset paper, and the mainstream quotes remain stable [8] 3.2. Industry News - Inner Mongolia Linle Bio - Energy Co., Ltd. plans to construct a pulp and paper integration industry upgrade project, increasing the production capacity from 100,000 tons/year to 200,000 tons/year. The project is divided into three phases: the first - phase project, starting in 2026 with an investment of 30 million yuan, will introduce a reel pulp board production line; the second - phase project, starting in 2027 with an investment of 50 million yuan, will build supporting power facilities; the third - phase project, starting in 2029 with an investment of 200 million yuan, will build a new production workshop and supporting facilities [9][10] 3.3. Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp futures - spot price differences in Shandong Yinxing, softwood - hardwood price differences in Shandong, inter - delivery price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [16][27][31]

Geopolitical Tensions - The geopolitical pressure between the US and Iran has significantly escalated, with the US State Department issuing a high-level security warning for citizens to evacuate Iran and threatening a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran [1][17] - Iran's response has been strong, with military readiness declared and warnings issued against US military bases and shipping targets, while also expressing willingness for negotiations [1][17] Impact on Global Commodity Markets - The tensions pose significant risks to the global commodity market, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for approximately 20% of global oil transport; any disruption could lead to a spike in oil prices [2][17] - Iran is a key exporter of methanol, LPG, and polyethylene, with methanol accounting for nearly half of China's imports, making the supply chain vulnerable to conflict [2][17] - Geopolitical risk premiums have driven prices of safe-haven assets like gold and silver to historical highs, potentially affecting the metals market as well [2][17] Greenland Dispute - The US has announced tariffs on eight European countries to pressure them into accepting the US's demands for the complete acquisition of Greenland, which has led to increased tensions with Europe [3][17] - Greenland holds about 32% of the world's rare earth reserves and significant amounts of copper, cobalt, and nickel, making the dispute impactful on key metal pricing [3][17] - The geopolitical tensions may lead to strategic reserve behaviors among countries regarding important metal raw materials [3][18] Structural Opportunities in Petrochemicals - The focus is on structural opportunities under the "reduce oil, increase chemicals" strategy, particularly concerning naphtha supply tightness due to peak gasoline demand and refinery capacity constraints [5][20] - The closure of high-cost refineries in Europe and Japan is expected to create market space for China's expanding chemical capacity, leading to discussions on potential volatility in ethylene supply [5][20] Pulp and Soybean Pricing Dynamics - The global supply of hardwood pulp is increasing, while softwood pulp supply remains limited, with a 9% year-on-year increase in shipments to China noted [7][21] - Domestic soybean prices have remained high following a significant price increase, driven by state grain reserves and cautious selling behavior from grain holders [15][29] - The potential for a release of social inventory post-Spring Festival could pressure soybean prices, alongside external factors affecting import dynamics [15][29]

Geopolitical Tensions - The geopolitical pressure between the US and Iran has significantly escalated, with the US State Department issuing a highest-level security warning for citizens to evacuate Iran and threatening a 25% tariff on countries conducting business with Iran. The US military has increased troop presence in the Middle East and is considering various military strike options, including airstrikes on military facilities [5] - Iran has responded strongly, with its Supreme Leader calling for national unity and the military entering a state of maximum readiness, warning of retaliation against US military bases and shipping targets if attacked. Both sides are in a "testing state" on the brink of war, where any miscalculation could trigger conflict [5] - The tensions pose significant risks to the global commodity market, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for approximately 20% of global oil transport. A disruption could lead to a sharp spike in oil prices [5] - Iran is a key exporter of methanol, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and polyethylene, with Iran's methanol accounting for nearly half of China's imports. Conflict could directly threaten the supply chain of these chemical products [5] Greenland Dispute - Disagreements between the US and Europe regarding Greenland have increased, with the US imposing tariffs on eight European countries to coerce acceptance of its demands for the "complete acquisition of Greenland." European nations have expressed opposition and have sent symbolic military support to Greenland [6] - This geopolitical dispute directly impacts the pricing of key metals, as Greenland holds about 32% of the world's rare earth reserves and significant amounts of copper, cobalt, and nickel. The tensions have led to increased price volatility in rare earths and silver, and if the US gains control over the island, it could reshape the global rare earth supply chain [6] Structural Opportunities in Oil and Chemicals - The focus is on structural opportunities under the "reduce oil, increase chemicals" strategy. Naphtha, as the "mother of chemicals," is produced through steam cracking and is a key feedstock for olefins and aromatics. The supply of naphtha is expected to face long-term bottlenecks due to declining gasoline demand and domestic refining capacity nearing policy ceilings [8] - The closure of high-cost, outdated refineries in Europe and Japan is creating market space for China's expanding chemical capacity, which could lead to significant fluctuations in olefin supply and pricing [8] Pricing Dynamics in Pulp and Soybeans - The global market for pulp is experiencing a significant shift, with new capacity for hardwood pulp increasing while softwood pulp capacity remains limited. The strong demand from China is expected to support prices, especially for needle pulp, as supply bottlenecks become clearer [9] - Domestic soybean prices remain high due to strong purchasing activity from state reserves and a reluctance among grain holders to sell. However, high prices are suppressing purchasing enthusiasm among downstream enterprises, leading to a potential "price without market" situation [18]

Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Index (Long-term bullish, short-term shock adjustment), Treasury bonds (Shock), Copper (Shock), Aluminum (Shock), Alumina (Shock), Zinc (Shock), Nickel (High-level shock), Stainless steel (High-level shock), Tin (Potential for increase), Precious metals (High-level wide-range shock), Industrial silicon and polysilicon (Bearish), Lithium carbonate (No clear rating), Rebar (Shock), Iron ore (Shock), Coke (Shock), Coking coal (Bullish), Anthracite (Bullish), Palm oil (Shock), Soybean oil (Bullish), Rapeseed oil (Bearish), Cotton (Shock), Sugar (Bearish), Corn (Shock), Soybeans (Bearish), Pulp (Shock), Logs (Shock), Live pigs (Shock), Fuel oil (Shock), Bitumen (Shock), BR rubber (Bullish), PTA (Shock), Ethylene glycol (Shock), Styrene (Bearish), Urea (Shock), PF (Shock), PVC (Shock), LPG (Bullish), Container shipping European line (Shock) [1] Core Views - The policy aims for a "slow bull" in the stock index rather than suppressing the market. The short-term shock adjustment space is expected to be limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout. Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels. The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The prices of precious metals are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are bearish. The prices of black metals are affected by weak reality and strong expectations. The prices of agricultural products are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather. The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and cost support [1] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Index: The stock index rose strongly in the first half of the week and then adjusted with policy regulation. The short-term shock adjustment space is limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Pay attention to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels [1] - Aluminum: The recent industrial drive is limited, and the macro sentiment has weakened, causing aluminum prices to fall from high levels [1] - Alumina: The alumina production capacity still has a large release space, and the industrial side weakens the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1] - Zinc: The cost center of the zinc fundamentals is stable, but the inventory pressure is obvious. The current price has insufficient fundamental support, and the zinc price fluctuates in a range under the repeated macro sentiment [1] - Nickel: The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The short-term nickel price fluctuates at a high level and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy changes in Indonesia, the macro sentiment, and the futures positions [1] - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel iron continues to rise, the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly, and the steel mill's production schedule in January increases. Pay attention to the actual production situation of the steel mill. The stainless steel futures fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term [1] - Tin: The short-term macro sentiment is repeated, and the tin price has corrected. However, the supply vulnerability of tin ore still exists, and it still has the driving force to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low absorption [1] - Precious metals: The geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the rise of precious metal prices has slowed down. The silver price has fallen under pressure. The short-term gold and silver prices are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. In the long term, it is recommended to allocate platinum at low levels or choose the arbitrage strategy of [long platinum, short palladium] [1] Black Metals - Rebar: The expectation is strong, but the spot is weak, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The continuous rise kinetic energy is insufficient. Unilaterally long orders should leave the market and wait and see; participate in the positive arbitrage position in the spot and futures [1] - Iron ore: The sector rotates, but the upper pressure of iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long at this position. The weak reality and strong expectation are intertwined. The actual supply and demand continue to be weak, and the energy consumption double control and anti-involution may disturb the supply [1] - Coke: The short-term market sentiment warms up, and the supply and demand are supported, but the medium-term supply and demand continue to be surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - Coking coal: If the expectation of "capacity reduction" continues to ferment and the spot replenishes the inventory before the Spring Festival, coking coal may still have room to rise, but the actual rise space is difficult to judge, and the volatility increases after a large rise. It is necessary to be cautious [1] - Anthracite: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural Products - Cotton: The domestic new crop production expectation is strong, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start-up maintains a low level, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "supported but no driving force." Pay attention to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document on direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, the weather during the planting period, and the peak season demand from March to April [1] - Sugar: The global sugar is in surplus, and the domestic new crop supply increases. The short consensus is relatively consistent. If the disk continues to fall, the lower cost support is strong, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Pay attention to the changes in the capital side [1] - Corn: The grain sales progress of Northeast corn is relatively fast, the port inventory is low, and the middle and lower reaches have a certain replenishment demand before the festival. The short-term spot is still relatively strong, and the disk is expected to fluctuate in a range [1] - Soybeans: With the progress of the Brazilian harvest, the Brazilian CNF premium is expected to reflect the selling pressure of the soybean harvest. Coupled with the pressure on the rapeseed sector from the Sino-Canadian easing, the MO5 is expected to be under pressure, and the MO5 - M09 is expected to be in a reverse arbitrage [1] - Pulp: The pulp fell today due to the decline of the commodity macro. The overall did not break through the shock range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has recently shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding. It is expected that the further decline space of the futures price is limited. However, the external quotation in January still shows a slight decline, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack driving factors for rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] - Live pigs: The spot and futures of live pigs gradually stabilize. The demand support and the unsold slaughter weight, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Products - Fuel oil: OPEC+ suspends production increase until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement affects. The US sanctions the Venezuelan crude oil export. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five-Year Plan rush work is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The asphalt profit is high [1] - Bitumen: The raw material cost support is strong. The spot-futures price difference rebounds greatly. The intermediate inventory increases [1] - BR rubber: The disk position decreases, and the new warehouse receipts increase. The BR increase slows down periodically. The spot leads the rise to repair the basis, and the BR continues to pay attention to the upward driving force above 12,000. The BD/BR listing price continues to be raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber narrows. The overseas cracking device capacity is cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The naphtha tax also has a positive support for the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high operation and high inventory, and the transaction center is average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber [1] - PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, and this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The PX fundamentals are indeed supported, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. The domestic PTA maintains high operation. The gasoline price difference is still at a high level, which supports the aromatics [1] - Ethylene glycol: The market spreads the news that two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, with a total annual production capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline due to the stimulation of supply-side news. The current polyester downstream start-up rate maintains above 90%, and the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. The suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while the buyers insist on pressing prices due to the weak downstream polymer demand and profit compression. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a bullish sentiment due to the export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward driving force needs to pay attention to the drive of the overseas market [1] - Urea: The export sentiment eases slightly, and the domestic demand is insufficient. The upper space is limited. The lower has the support of anti-involution and the cost side [1] - PF: The geopolitical conflict intensifies, and the crude oil has a rising risk. The maintenance decreases, and the operation load is at a high level. The long-distance arrival increases the supply. The downstream demand operation weakens. The price returns to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: There is less global production in 2026, and the future expectation is optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate is cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing to export later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the PVC production capacity to be cleared [1] - LPG: The January CP rises unexpectedly, and the cost support of imported gas is strong. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East escalates, and the short-term risk premium rises. The EIA weekly C3 inventory accumulation trend slows down, and it is expected to gradually turn to destocking. The domestic port inventory also decreases [1] - Container shipping European line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. The airlines are still cautious in their tentative re-navigation. The pre-festival replenishment demand still exists [1]