1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the policy tone of the Politburo meeting was basically the same as before. The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume, and the performance of heavy - weight stocks was strong. The improvement of corporate earnings needs to be verified by mid - report data [2]. - The stock - bond seesaw continues to put pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment of the bond market has not recovered [2]. - The fluctuation of gold prices increases due to macro news, but the upward trend remains. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and the short position of the 10 - contract should be held [2]. - Steel prices are supported by limited inventory in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. Some coal prices are loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The short - term silver price is expected to continue to rise after range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The supply - demand situation of some energy and chemical products is complex. Some products are in a weak shock, and some have price support or improvement expectations [2]. - Some agricultural products are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and some have price trends affected by supply - demand factors [2]. - Some special and new energy products are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price of around 6400 for MO2509 when the price is high, and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The stock - bond seesaw puts pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment has not recovered. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise, and a bullish spread portfolio can be constructed through gold call options. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed [2]. Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are supported, and iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of some coking coal is loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coke and short on iron ore [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper and Aluminum**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The supply - side benefits for aluminum are limited, and the price has a small increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and supply - demand expectations. Some products such as PX, PTA, and styrene are in a weak shock, and some products such as bottle chips have price support [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: The prices of some chemical products such as PVC, pure benzene, and synthetic rubber are affected by various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oilseeds**: The prices of some agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and oils are affected by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as stopping profit on long positions and shorting on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, and eggs are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Products**: The prices of some special products such as glass and rubber are affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended, such as holding short positions and waiting and seeing [2]. - **New Energy Products**: The prices of some new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price is expected to decline, with the fourth - quarter Brent crude oil price central falling to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter [2] - For precious metals, wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - Copper prices are difficult to break through effectively, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - Aluminum prices will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The IEA's August report increased supply growth forecasts and slightly decreased demand growth forecasts. The fourth - quarter Brent central may fall to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter. There is still upward risk due to potential supply disruptions, but the overall driving force is downward [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected release of the third - batch quota and weakening costs [18] - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten marginally. With low inventory, the price has some support, and the recent BU cracking is considered strong [19] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, but there is support from increased East Asian chemical procurement. The price has stabilized slightly. The domestic market is in a low - level oscillation [20] Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: After the release of the US CPI data, the market fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Chile's refined copper output may increase but the growth rate may fall short of expectations again. It is difficult for copper prices to break through 79,500 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, but the peak may occur in August. The price will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic market has weak demand and increasing supply, and the social inventory may rise further. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan per ton [8] - **Lead**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan per ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals of nickel are poor, and it is advisable to actively short during the later stage of the rebound [10] - **Tin**: Selectively go short for the short - term at low prices [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillates, and attention should be paid to risk management [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The self - clearing of production capacity is difficult, and the price is affected by related varieties. Pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [13] - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short cautiously at the lower end of the range [14] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Palm Oil**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the short - term price volatility should be enlarged, and attention should be paid to the changes in positions [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil market is expected to remain relatively strong, and a bullish view is maintained [34] - **Soybean No. 1**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties [35] - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in a situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and the progress of capacity elimination [37] - **Cotton**: The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was bullish. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [39] - **Apples**: The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is advisable to wait and see for now [40] Others - **Grain & Oil Chemicals** - **Urea**: The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is likely to oscillate within a range [21] - **Methanol**: The domestic market is strong in the inland and weak in the ports. With the approaching peak - season demand, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream stocking [22] - **Pure Benzene**: There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, and it is advisable to conduct month - spread trading [23] - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern, with limited upward and downward movement [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported, polyethylene demand is expected to increase, and polypropylene is in a weak - adjustment state [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [26] - **PX & PTA**: Affected by oil prices, the prices are falling. PX is expected to have a good valuation in the third quarter [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pressure is alleviating, and short - term performance is weak due to oil prices [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip is under long - term over - capacity pressure [29] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The market is in an active state, with a positive macro - driving force. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [43] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures are oscillating. The probability of a steeper yield curve is increasing [44]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent economic data and policy decisions on various sectors, particularly focusing on the U.S. non-farm payrolls, oil prices, and the performance of the Chinese stock market. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls data showed a significant miss, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, far below the expected 110,000, marking the lowest increase in nine months [11][18] - The previous two months' data were revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs, indicating a weakening labor market [11][18] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for July unexpectedly dropped to 48%, the lowest in nine months, reflecting a contraction in the manufacturing sector [11] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices fell by 2.86% in the overnight session, with OPEC and its allies approving an increase in production by 548,000 barrels per day for September [12][19] - The U.S. President threatened to penalize China and India for purchasing oil from a European country, which could risk 2.75 million barrels per day of maritime oil exports from that country [12][19] - China and India, the second and third largest oil consumers globally, have not indicated plans to reduce imports, although India has completed its procurement of Russian oil for September [12][19] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - The Chinese stock market experienced a decline following the disappointing U.S. non-farm payrolls data, with significant drops in the oil, petrochemical, and defense sectors [9][10] - The market capitalization reached 1.62 trillion yuan, with a slight increase in financing balance by 432 million yuan to 19,710.27 billion yuan [9][10] - The article suggests that while the current policy signals are clear and valuations are beginning to recover, the fundamental economic conditions have yet to be validated [9][10] Group 4: Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission of China plans to accelerate the approval of new policy financial tools, which may boost infrastructure investment in the second half of the year [6] - Hospitals in several provinces are tightening regulations on pharmaceutical representatives, aiming to curb unethical practices in the medical field [7]

Summary of Market Transactions and Positions as of August 1, 2025 Core Insights - The report provides a detailed overview of transaction volumes and positions across various market sectors, indicating significant changes in trading activity compared to previous periods [1]. Group 1: Stock Index Sector - Stock index transactions amounted to 550.37 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 26.82% from the previous period [1] - The holding amount in this sector was 1103.066 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 3.12% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio stood at 49.35% [1] Group 2: Government Bonds Sector - Government bond transactions totaled 382.529 billion yuan, down by 7.03% [1] - The holding amount for government bonds was 865.329 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 0.25% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was recorded at 44.77% [1] Group 3: Base Metals Sector - Base metals transactions reached 449.204 billion yuan, a significant drop of 25.58% [1] - The holding amount in this sector was 482.903 billion yuan, decreasing by 1.72% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was notably high at 107.44% [1] Group 4: Precious Metals Sector - Precious metals transactions were 278.766 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial decline of 36.55% [1] - The holding amount for precious metals was 438.786 billion yuan, with a minor decrease of 0.28% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 82.47% [1] Group 5: Energy and Chemicals Sector - Energy and chemicals transactions totaled 447.496 billion yuan, down by 12.28% [1] - The holding amount in this sector was 414.450 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 1.19% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 93.58% [1] Group 6: Agricultural Products Sector - Agricultural products transactions amounted to 320.812 billion yuan, with a minor decrease of 0.97% [1] - The holding amount for agricultural products was 571.980 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.67% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 49.16% [1] Group 7: Black Building Materials Sector - Black building materials transactions reached 495.117 billion yuan, down by 9.48% [1] - The holding amount in this sector was 372.928 billion yuan, decreasing by 1.44% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was notably high at 125.45% [1]

Oil Market - International oil prices continued to rise, with Brent crude for September increasing by 0.98% [1] - The U.S. EIA reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 7.698 million barrels, but the market remains focused on the renewed risks of sanctions on oil [1] - The geopolitical risks related to Iran and Russia are expected to support oil prices in the short term, and investors are advised to consider the hedging value of out-of-the-money call options on crude oil [1] Precious Metals - The U.S. reported a rebound in Q2 GDP at an annualized rate of 3%, exceeding expectations, while ADP employment increased by 104,000, also above expectations [2] - Following the data release, the dollar strengthened, putting pressure on precious metals, which are expected to continue adjusting in a volatile manner due to reduced risk aversion and clearer tariff negotiations [2] Copper - Copper prices fell sharply, with a near 20% drop in short-term prices, as the U.S. imposed tariffs on copper products, impacting market sentiment [3] - The COMEX copper inventory has reached 250,000 tons, and the market is closely watching the implementation of the U.S. tariff agreements [3] - Despite the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, a stronger dollar is suppressing copper prices, with adjustments expected towards the 60-day moving average [3] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices continued to fluctuate, with seasonal demand showing signs of decline and inventory levels increasing [4] - The market is experiencing a drop in aluminum alloy profits, with short-term price pressures expected despite some resilience in the medium term [5] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices opened high but experienced significant fluctuations, with total market inventory continuing to rise [10] - Traders are optimistic, with spot market activity increasing, and Australian mine prices reported at $845, indicating a rebound from low levels [10] Steel Market - Steel prices are experiencing a downward trend, with rebar demand showing slight recovery but overall investment in infrastructure and manufacturing slowing down [13] - Iron ore prices are fluctuating, with global shipments exceeding last year's levels, but domestic port arrivals are weak, leading to a potential slight reduction in inventory [14] Agricultural Products - U.S. soybean quality ratings are at 70%, higher than expected, indicating a potential for early harvest expectations [35] - Corn futures are fluctuating, with U.S. corn quality ratings at 73%, suggesting a stable growth trend [39] - The domestic demand for urea is weak, with production increasing but overall demand remaining low [23] Financial Markets - The A-share market showed increased volatility, with major indices experiencing mixed movements, and the market sentiment remains relatively positive [47] - The bond market is expected to enter a repair phase, with the yield curve likely to steepen due to increased fiscal measures [48]

Group 1: Trade Relations - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing efforts by China and the U.S. to ease trade tensions, with recent discussions in Stockholm focusing on economic policies and trade agreements [1] - The consensus reached during the talks includes extending the suspension of U.S. tariffs and China's countermeasures for an additional 90 days [1] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with significant trading activity noted at 1.83 trillion yuan, while financing balances increased by 19.26 billion yuan [2][8] - The banking sector has shown strong performance since 2025, benefiting from a low-risk interest rate environment, which is expected to attract more long-term capital into the market [2] Group 3: Commodity Insights - Lithium carbonate prices have seen fluctuations due to mining qualification issues in Jiangxi, with weekly production slightly increasing [3][19] - Oil prices rose by 2.49% following Trump's statements regarding potential tariffs on Russia if progress is not made in resolving the Ukraine conflict [3][10] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 10.8% in June, with imports decreasing by 4.2% and exports declining by 0.6% [4] - China's state-owned enterprises reported a slight decline in revenue and profit for the first half of the year, with a debt ratio increase to 65.2% [5]

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Overseas, the US dollar index continues to decline, and global risk appetite has generally increased. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stock indices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; government bonds are at a high level and volatile; commodities show different trends in different sectors [2]. Summary by Category Macro - finance - **General situation**: Overseas, the US dollar index and US bond yields are falling, and global risk appetite is rising. Domestically, economic growth is higher than expected in H1 but slows in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Assets**: Stock indices are volatile and slightly stronger, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Government bonds are at a high level and volatile, and cautious observation is advised. For commodities, black metals are expected to rebound from low levels, non - ferrous metals are expected to rebound, energy and chemicals are volatile, and precious metals are at a high level and volatile, with cautious long positions recommended for relevant sectors [2]. Stock Indices - **Market performance**: Driven by sectors such as hydropower, engineering machinery, and civil explosives and cement, the domestic stock market continues to rise [3]. - **Fundamentals and policy**: Economic growth in H1 is higher than expected, but consumption and investment slow down in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term macro - upward drivers are strengthened. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic policy implementation. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Market trend**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to rise. Uncertainty before the August 1st tariff deadline and other factors support the strength of precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down. The volatility of precious metals is expected to increase, and they are short - term strong. Gold's medium - and long - term upward support pattern remains unchanged, and its strategic allocation value is prominent [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Policy expectations are strengthened, and steel prices continue to rebound. The real demand is weak in the short term, and the demand for plates is stronger than that for building materials. Speculative demand has increased. The output of five major steel products has decreased, and cost support is strong. Short - term, it is recommended to view it with a volatile and slightly stronger mindset [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rebounds. Under the policy expectation, the black metal sector rises, driving the iron ore price up. The steel demand is in the off - season, but steel mill profits are high. The iron ore supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The cost of silicon manganese production in southern factories is high, and the production profit is low. The cost of silicon iron has increased slightly, and the production rhythm is stable. Short - term, the prices may follow the coal price rebound [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the soda ash main contract rises significantly. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, the demand is weak, and the profit has decreased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the supply - demand pattern. Short - term, the price is supported [8]. - **Glass**: The glass main contract price hits the daily limit. Supply pressure increases in the off - season, and there are expectations of production cuts. The terminal real estate demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The price is supported by the "anti - involution" policy [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The upcoming Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilizing plan boosts sentiment. The future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time, and there is uncertainty. Short - term, the plan is positive for copper prices [10]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, it is weak in the near term. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document boosts market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited, and the increase is expected to be limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost has increased. The industry is in a loss state, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is better than expected, and the mine supply tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term upside is restricted [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract rises significantly. The production has increased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Although the fundamentals have not improved, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the industrial silicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The "anti - involution" sentiment drives the re - pricing of the industry chain. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the polysilicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The industry is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the market should pay attention to the margin adjustment [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As the US trade negotiation deadline approaches, the oil price has fallen for three consecutive days. The market is waiting for the EU - US trade negotiation results [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has corrected. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory shows signs of accumulation. It is expected to follow the crude oil price and be in a weak and volatile state [15]. - **PX**: PX follows the upstream raw materials and is in a range - bound state. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [15]. - **PTA**: The spot is weak, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is driven by the "anti - involution" resonance but has limited upside. There is a risk of production cuts due to low processing fees [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is supported at a certain level. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber is slightly lower, following the polyester sector. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern [16]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang has risen and then fallen slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased. The price is short - term strong under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, but the upside is limited [17][18]. - **PP**: The PP price is slightly adjusted. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term, and the upside is limited [18]. - **PL**: The propylene futures are newly listed, and the price is affected by market sentiment. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is large, and the price increase driver is limited [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE is adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price may rebound in the short - term but has limited upside and is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term [19]. - **Urea**: The urea price has risen with the market sentiment. Fundamentally, the demand is weakening, and the supply is loose. The price is expected to rise in the short - term but be under pressure in the medium - and long - term [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to weather conditions. After a short - term heatwave, there are expected to be showers, which may limit crop stress [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal is expected to have a pattern of inventory accumulation and weak basis. The rapeseed meal consumption is far below expectations, and the inventory is slow to decline. The short - term market is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season. The rapeseed oil has high port inventory and slow circulation. The palm oil is the dominant factor in the market. The soybean - palm oil price difference may widen [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The inventory of palm oil has increased, and the futures price has risen. The short - term market is bullish, but the resistance to price increases has increased. The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the export improvement is less than expected [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economic semi - annual "report card" shows that the H1 GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The fixed - asset investment grew by 2.8%, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% [1]. - For A - shares, from a long - term perspective, the investment value is relatively high. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2][11]. - The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of treasury bond futures. However, the "anti - involution" policy drives up the prices of some commodities, and the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of short - term price rebound but may still fluctuate due to hedging pressure and no signs of production cuts at the mine end [4][5][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. International News - On July 15, data from the US Department of Labor showed that the US unadjusted CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month [6]. b. Domestic News - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing from July 14 - 15, emphasizing achievements in urban development since the 18th National Congress of the CPC [7]. c. Industry News - On July 15, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24.5458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [8]. d. Key Varieties Analysis - **Equity Index**: The US three major indexes mainly declined. The previous trading day's equity index fluctuated and declined. The communication sector led the rise, and the coal sector led the fall. The market turnover was 1.64 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.6575%. The central bank's net investment in the open - market operation was 173.5 billion yuan [3][12]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The weekly production of carbonate lithium decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons. The demand is expected to increase, while the inventory increased by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons [4][20]. e. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The investment value of A - shares is high in the long - term. The banking sector with high interest and low volatility has performed well since 2025 [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The external environment is more complex, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, but the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins declined. The consumption is in a relative off - season, and the cost support has weakened [13]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The supply is shrinking, and the market expects better results. Soda ash futures also declined, and the inventory is under pressure [14]. - **Rubber**: The supply of new rubber in domestic production areas is affected by rainfall, but the overall supply pressure is increasing, and the upward space is limited [16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: After the release of inflation data, gold and silver weakened. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled, but the long - term driving force for gold still exists [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the low processing fee of concentrates and stable downstream demand [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and downstream demand is mixed [19]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The short - term macro - expectation is strong, and the iron ore price is expected to be strong with fluctuations [22]. - **Steel**: The supply and demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant, and the steel price is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply pressure still exists, and the market focuses on the "anti - involution" policy expectation [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The July USDA report is neutral to bearish, but the demand for US soybeans in biodiesel may support the price, and the domestic market is expected to fluctuate [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is neutral to bearish, but the strong demand in India may support the palm oil price, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate [26][27]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rose strongly. The market is still speculating on the freight rate space in August, and the focus is on the 10 - contract [28].

Report Investment Ratings - Index: Bullish in the short term [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bullish in the long term, short - term upside limited [1] - Gold: Sideways in the short term, risk of pull - back after rally [1] - Copper: Bearish [1] - Aluminum: Sideways to bearish [1] - Alumina: Sideways to bullish [1] - Zinc: Bearish, look for shorting opportunities [1] - Nickel: Sideways, short - term shorting opportunities, long - term bearish due to surplus [1] - Stainless Steel: Sideways, short - term trading, look for cash - and - carry opportunities [1] - Tin: Sideways in the short term, risk of price decline in the long term [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways, fundamental weakening [1] - Manganese Silicon: Supply - demand balanced [1] - Ferrosilicon: Supply - demand balanced [1] - Black Metals: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the medium term due to surplus [1] - Coking Coal: Sideways, avoid shorting in the short term, look for cash - and - carry opportunities [1] - Coke: Sideways, look for selling - hedging opportunities when futures are at a premium [1] - Palm Oil: Look for buying opportunities on pull - backs [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Sideways [1] - Canola Oil: Bearish in the short term [1] - Cotton: Sideways to bearish [1] - Sugar: Bullish due to expected production increase [1] - Corn: Sideways, look for shorting opportunities for 001 contract [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways, look for buying opportunities on dips [1] - Pulp: Do not chase the rally [1] - Logs: Sideways [1] - Live Pigs: Futures stable [1] - Fuel Oil: Bullish in the short term due to consumption and supply factors [1] - Asphalt: Volatile due to cost and demand factors [1] - Shanghai Rubber: Sideways to bearish [1] - BR Rubber: Sideways with some support [1] - PTA: Sideways [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Sideways [1] - Short - fiber: Bullish [1] - Styrene: Bearish [1] - Urea: Sideways [1] - PE: Sideways to bullish [1] - PP: Sideways to bullish [1] - PVC: Sideways to bullish [1] - Caustic Soda: Sideways [1] - LPG: Sideways to bearish [1] - Container Shipping to Europe: Sideways, expected price peak in mid - July [1] Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to be bullish in the short term due to "asset shortage", "national team" support, and positive market sentiment [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks from the central bank limit upside [1] - Gold prices will mainly fluctuate due to market uncertainties [1] - Copper prices face a risk of catch - up decline due to inflation and tariff factors [1] - Aluminum prices will move sideways to bearishly due to high prices suppressing demand and inventory build - up [1] - Alumina prices will stabilize and rise due to supply - side reform expectations [1] - Zinc prices are under pressure, and shorting opportunities should be watched [1] - Nickel prices will move sideways, with short - term shorting opportunities and long - term surplus pressure [1] - Stainless steel futures will move sideways, and cash - and - carry opportunities should be grasped [1] - Tin prices have short - term support but face a risk of decline in the long term [1] - Polysilicon is bullish due to supply - side reform expectations and high market sentiment [1] - Lithium carbonate prices will move sideways [1] - Iron ore has good market sentiment but weakening fundamentals [1] - Black metals are bullish in the short term and bearish in the medium term due to supply - demand imbalance [1] - Coking coal and coke should focus on cash - and - carry and selling - hedging opportunities [1] - Palm oil should look for buying opportunities on pull - backs [1] - Cotton prices will move sideways to bearishly [1] - Sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase, and the impact of crude oil on sugar production should be watched [1] - Corn prices will move sideways, and shorting opportunities for the 001 contract should be watched [1] - Soybean meal prices will move sideways, and buying opportunities on dips should be considered [1] - Pulp should not be chased higher [1] - Live pig futures are stable [1] - Fuel oil and asphalt prices are affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [1] - Rubber prices will move sideways to bearishly [1] - Chemical product prices are affected by supply, demand, cost, and other factors, showing different trends [1] - Container shipping to Europe is in a pattern of stable reality and weak expectation, with an expected price peak in mid - July [1] Summary by Category Index - Short - term bullish trend due to "asset shortage", "national team" support, and positive market sentiment [1] Treasury Bonds - Bullish in the long term due to asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term upside limited by central bank - hinted interest rate risks [1] Gold - Sideways in the short term due to market uncertainties, risk of pull - back after rally [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Bearish due to inflation and tariff factors [1] - Aluminum: Sideways to bearish due to high prices suppressing demand and inventory build - up [1] - Alumina: Sideways to bullish due to supply - side reform expectations [1] - Zinc: Bearish, look for shorting opportunities due to inventory build - up pressure [1] - Nickel: Sideways, short - term shorting opportunities, long - term surplus pressure [1] - Stainless Steel: Sideways, focus on cash - and - carry opportunities [1] - Tin: Sideways in the short term, risk of decline in the long term [1] Energy and Chemicals - Polysilicon: Bullish due to supply - side reform expectations and high market sentiment [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways, fundamental weakening [1] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Supply - demand balanced [1] - Black Metals: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the medium term due to supply - demand imbalance [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: Focus on cash - and - carry and selling - hedging opportunities [1] - Fuel Oil and Asphalt: Affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [1] - Rubber: Sideways to bearish [1] - Chemical Products: Different trends affected by supply, demand, cost, etc [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Look for buying opportunities on pull - backs [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Sideways [1] - Canola Oil: Bearish in the short term [1] - Cotton: Sideways to bearish [1] - Sugar: Bullish due to expected production increase in Brazil [1] - Corn: Sideways, look for shorting opportunities for the 001 contract [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways, look for buying opportunities on dips [1] Others - Pulp: Do not chase the rally [1] - Live Pigs: Futures stable [1] - Container Shipping to Europe: Stable reality and weak expectation, expected price peak in mid - July [1]