南华期货锌产业周报 ——进口窗口开启，区间震荡 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月21日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 宏观情绪回暖，但产业基本面呈现"外松内紧"的剧烈分化。 宏观层面，美国11月CPI低于预期 （2.7%）且美联储降息预期增强，叠加国内经济会议释放积极信号，为锌价提供了金融属性的底部支撑 。然 而，供需的核心矛盾在于全球库存周期的错配。LME库存因大幅交仓激增至10万吨级别，0-3月差迅速转为 Contango（C结构），直接证伪了海外供应短缺的逻辑 。反观国内，虽然消费端受北方环保预警抑制导致镀 锌开工下滑 ，但冶炼厂年末集中检修导致供应边际收缩，叠加进口矿实际流通量尚未完全释放，国内现货升 水持续走高 。结论：短期基本面处于"海外利空压顶，国内供应底支撑"的僵持阶段，单边驱动不足，更多 表现为比价修复。 沪锌沪铜期货主力收盘价对比 元/吨 沪锌期货主力合约收盘价 沪铜期货主力收盘价(右轴) 元/吨 15000 20000 25000 30000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo wide - range adjustments and suggests paying attention to the support at the 2.28 level [3][4]. - Upstream zinc mine imports have declined due to the deteriorating internal - external price ratio and increased losses in importing zinc concentrates. Domestic smelters have started winter raw material reserves, preferring domestic zinc concentrates, which has led to increased competition for domestic ore procurement, significant drops in processing fees at home and abroad, and a contraction in smelter profits, with expected significant production decline [3]. - Recently, the London zinc price has corrected, the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream market is entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are weakening, while the automotive sector has some positive factors due to policy support. The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has corrected, the trading atmosphere has improved, the spot premium has remained high and stable, domestic inventories have decreased significantly, LME zinc inventories have increased significantly, and the spot premium has been significantly reduced [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,970 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,035 dollars/ton, down 60 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 194,756 lots, down 12,790 lots [3]. - The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 2,722 lots, down 4,540 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 80,577 tons, down 11,339 tons; the LME inventory is 95,550 tons, up 31,075 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 23,020 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,750 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 50 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is - 16.47 dollars/ton, up 15.14 dollars [3]. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,090 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, down 27,640 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production is 1.0666 million tons, down 31,000 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons [3]. - The social zinc inventory is 132,500 tons, down 1,400 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, up 140,000 tons [3]. - The new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, up 36.6239 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - The automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, up 52,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 16.28%, down 1.39 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 16.27%, down 1.4 percentage points [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.23%, down 0.76 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 11.88%, up 0.59 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In the macro - aspect, the US November non - farm payrolls increased more than expected, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly reached a four - year high, not significantly changing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The US 12 - month Markit composite PMI hit a six - month low, with price indicators rising sharply and employment indicators weak. The eurozone's 12 - month manufacturing PMI accelerated its contraction, Germany had its worst performance in 10 months, and France returned to the expansion range [3]. - The central financial office stated that the investment and consumption growth rates are expected to recover next year, and the real estate supply side should strictly control the increment and revitalize the stock [3]. - In the fundamental aspect, the upstream zinc ore import volume declined due to the deteriorating internal - external price ratio and increased losses in importing zinc concentrates. Domestic smelters have started winter raw material reserves, preferring domestic zinc concentrates, leading to increased competition for domestic ore procurement, significant drops in processing fees at home and abroad, and a contraction in smelter profits [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The current high copper prices are mainly driven by the structural imbalance of supply and inventory. The COMEX - LME premium has led the US to continuously attract non - US copper resources, and the Fed's actions have boosted market risk appetite. - Concerns about the tightness of the ore end persist, and the tightness may be transmitted to the smelting end. High copper prices have suppressed terminal demand. - In the future, the imbalance of global copper supply and inventory and the tight ore end will limit the downside space of copper prices. Short - term price fluctuations may intensify, and the main support is at 90,000 - 91,000 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - Domestic zinc mines are entering the production - reduction season, and the supply of refined zinc is gradually shifting from loose to tight. The export of zinc ingots has improved the market, and domestic spot zinc ingots remain at a premium. - The LME inventory has been accumulating, but the LME 0 - 3 premium remains high. The Fed's actions have boosted zinc prices. - In the future, the tightness of the ore end may lead to the tightness of zinc ingots. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. Pay attention to the inflection point of TC and the change in refined zinc inventory, with the main support at 23,000 - 23,200 yuan/ton [5]. Nickel - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - sentiment has been digested, and there is limited further driving force after the valuation repair. The fundamentals are under pressure, and the nickel price is facing adjustment. - The spot nickel price has declined, and downstream demand is weak. Overseas inventory accumulation has slowed down, while domestic social inventory pressure has increased. - In the short term, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main reference range of 114,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [6]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has certain support from the supply and cost sides, but the off - season demand limits the upside space. - The nickel ore market is stable, and the nickel - iron and chromium - iron prices have different trends. The supply pressure is slightly relieved, but the demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is limited. - In the short term, stainless steel is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main operating range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the implementation of steel - mill production reduction and the marginal improvement of demand [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and it is expected that the improvement of tin ore supply within the year will be limited. The demand in the South China region shows certain resilience, especially in the new - energy - related fields. - The market sentiment is positive, and the fundamentals are strong. It is expected that the tin price will maintain a strong trend within the year. Hold long positions and consider buying on dips [11]. Aluminum - The alumina market has a structural surplus, with stable supply growth and peak demand. The inventory has accumulated to a historical high, and the cost support has shifted downward. The short - term price may be volatile, and the reference range for the main contract is 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton. - The electrolytic aluminum market is in a high - level wide - range shock under the interweaving of macro - sentiment and fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 22,300 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the Fed's policies and domestic inventory changes [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy has remained high and volatile. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the increase in the price of primary aluminum has increased the cost pressure on recycled aluminum plants. - The demand shows a marginal weakening trend, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The ADC12 price is restricted by strong costs and weak demand, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range. The reference range for the main contract is 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap - aluminum supply, downstream orders, and macro - sentiment [13]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon has weakened under the pressure of cost decline expectations, significant demand decline expectations, and continuous inventory increase. - It is expected that the supply - demand situation in December will remain weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. If production decreases significantly, it may reach 10,000 yuan/ton; otherwise, it may fall to 7,500 yuan/ton [15]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon price has shown a large - amplitude shock. Although the production has decreased, the demand has decreased more, resulting in an oversupply situation and continuous inventory accumulation. - After the registration of the platform company, the price may be strong under the influence of positive news. Pay attention to the substantial progress of capacity storage and production control. The futures price is strongly rising and at a large premium to the spot market. Pay attention to the production - reduction amplitude and price - decline pressure [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price center of lithium carbonate has moved up, and there are more news disturbances in the market. The fundamentals remain in a situation of both supply and demand being strong. - The downstream demand is relatively optimistic, but the sustainability of the improvement in the off - season demand at the end of the year needs to be noted. The social inventory is stably decreasing, but the off - balance - sheet implicit inventory may bring pressure. - In the short term, the market may maintain a strong shock, with the main reference range of 95,000 - 100,000 yuan [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 93,222 yuan/ton, up 1.00% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium has decreased by 25 yuan/ton. - The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price is 93,650 yuan/ton, up 0.93% from the previous day. The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper premium has increased by 30 yuan/ton. - The SMM wet - process copper price is 93,505 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from the previous day. The SMM wet - process copper premium has decreased by 35 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In November, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1031 million tons, up 1.05% from the previous month. In October, the electrolytic copper import volume was 282,100 tons, down 15.61% from the previous month. - The import copper concentrate index is - 43.08 dollars/ton, down 0.51% from the previous week. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory is 763,900 tons, up 1.83% from the previous week. - The electrolytic copper rod - making start - up rate is 64.54%, down 1.87% from the previous week. The recycled copper rod - making start - up rate is 9.15%, down 9.14% from the previous week [1]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 23,700 yuan/ton, up 2.55% from the previous day. The SMM 0 zinc ingot (Guangdong) price is 23,620 yuan/ton, up 2.56% from the previous day. - The import loss is - 4,588 yuan/ton, down 320.15 yuan from the previous day. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.39, down 0.06 from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the refined zinc output was 595,200 tons, down 3.56% from the previous month. In October, the refined zinc import volume was 18,800 tons, down 16.94% from the previous month, and the export volume was 8,500 tons, up 243.79% from the previous month. - The galvanized start - up rate is 58.39%, up 0.19% from the previous week. The die - cast zinc alloy start - up rate is 49.56%, down 1.52% from the previous week. The zinc oxide start - up rate is 55.67%, down 0.78% from the previous week [5]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 118,200 yuan/ton, down 0.55% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel price is 120,800 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from the previous day. - The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 5,200 yuan/ton, up 1.96% from the previous day. The 1 imported nickel price is 116,000 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel output is 33,345 tons, down 9.38% from the previous month. The refined nickel import volume is 9,741 tons, down 65.66% from the previous month. - The SHFE inventory is 44,677 tons, up 5.10% from the previous week. The social inventory is 58,970 tons, up 3.73% from the previous week. The bonded - area inventory is 2,200 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis difference between futures and spot is 405 yuan/ton, down 13.83% from the previous day [9]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel output (43 enterprises) is 1.787 million tons, down 0.72% from the previous month. The Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel output (Qinglong) is 423,500 tons, up 0.36% from the previous month. - The stainless - steel import volume is 124,100 tons, up 3.18% from the previous month. The export volume is 358,100 tons, down 14.43% from the previous month. The net export volume is 234,000 tons, down 21.54% from the previous month [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price is 329,900 yuan/ton, up 3.09% from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin premium is - 50 yuan/ton, down 200.00% from the previous day. - The Yangtze River 1 tin price is 330,400 yuan/ton, up 3.09% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium is 17 dollars/ton, down 22.73% from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In October, the tin ore import volume was 11,632 tons, up 33.49% from the previous month. The SMM refined tin output in October was 16,090 tons, up 53.09% from the previous month. - The refined tin import volume in October was 526 tons, down 58.55% from the previous month. The export volume was 1,480 tons, down 15.33% from the previous month [11]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price is 22,050 yuan/ton, up 0.73% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day. - The electrolytic aluminum import loss is - 1,977 yuan/ton, down 39.5 yuan from the previous day. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.62, up 0.01 from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - In November, the alumina output was 7.4394 million tons, down 4.44% from the previous month. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output was 3.6366 million tons, down 2.82% from the previous month. The overseas electrolytic aluminum output was 2.4992 million tons, down 3.50% from the previous month [12]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,750 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day. The SMM East - China ADC12, South - China ADC12, and Northeast ADC12 prices are all 21,750 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day. The SMM Southwest ADC12 price is 21,800 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - In November, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot output was 682,000 tons, up 5.74% from the previous month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot output was 302,700 tons, up 5.84% from the previous month. The scrap - aluminum output was 876,000 tons, up 11.45% from the previous month [13]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of East - China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of East - China SI4210 industrial silicon is also unchanged from the previous day. - The basis of oxygen - permeable SI5530 is 765 yuan/ton, down 16.39% from the previous day. The basis of SI4210 is 472 yuan/ton, down 26.55% from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon output is 401,700 tons, down 11.17% from the previous month. The Xinjiang industrial silicon output is 237,600 tons, up 0.83% from the previous month. The Yunnan and Sichuan industrial silicon outputs have decreased significantly [15]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feeding material is 52,300 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of N - type granular silicon is 50,000 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. - The basis of N - type silicon is - 4,890 yuan, down 41.13% from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - The polysilicon output in the week is 25,100 tons, down 2.71% from the previous week. The monthly polysilicon output is 114,600 tons, down 14.48% from the previous month. The polysilicon import volume is 14,000 tons, up 11.96% from the previous month, and the export volume is 15,000 tons, down 27.99% from the previous month [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 94,500 yuan/ton, up 1.07% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 92,000 yuan/ton, up 1.10% from the previous day. - The SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 83,030 yuan/ton, up 0.85% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 77,530 yuan/ton, up 0.91% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In November, the lithium carbonate output was 53,500 tons, up 3.35% from the previous month. The battery - grade lithium carbonate output was 70,300 tons, up 2.84% from the previous month. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate output was 25,050 tons, up 4.81% from the previous month. - In November, the lithium carbonate demand was 133,451 tons, up 5.11% from the previous month

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The high copper price is driven by supply - inventory imbalance and macro factors. Despite concerns about tight supply at the mine end, high prices suppress terminal demand. The price is expected to have limited downside but may experience short - term volatility [1]. Zinc - As domestic zinc mines enter the production - reduction season, the supply of zinc ingots may tighten. Refined zinc exports boost the domestic price, and the short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price [5]. Nickel - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - driven force is limited. The fundamental pressure leads to a weakening of the nickel price, and it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [6]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a game of weak supply and demand. Although the macro - expectation improves slightly and there is cost support, the off - season demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate and adjust [9]. Tin - The tin market has strong fundamentals and positive market sentiment. It is expected that the tin price will maintain a strong trend this year [11]. Aluminum - The alumina market has a structural surplus, and the price is under pressure. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to remain in a high - level shock pattern [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market has high costs and weakening demand. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range [13]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is expected to remain weakly balanced. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the possibility of rising or falling depending on production changes [15]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market has weak demand and oversupply. The price may be strong under the influence of production - reduction news, and the futures price may remain high - level volatile [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market maintains a situation of strong supply and demand. The price may fluctuate due to news interference, and the short - term trend is expected to be strongly volatile [17]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.00% to 93222 yuan/ton, and the premium changed from 5 to - 20 yuan/ton. The price of other copper products also showed different degrees of increase [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 spread decreasing by 30 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In November, the electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05% to 110.31 million tons, and the import volume in October decreased by 15.61% to 28.21 million tons [1]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 2.55% to 23700 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 320.15 yuan/ton to - 4588 yuan/ton [5]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 spread increasing by 5 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the refined zinc production decreased by 3.56% to 59.52 million tons, and the import volume in October decreased by 16.94% to 1.88 million tons [5]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.55% to 118200 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 1 to - 186 dollars/ton [6]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 40 to - 150 yuan/ton [6]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% to 33345 tons, and the import volume decreased by 65.66% to 9741 tons [6]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B stainless steel remained unchanged at 12800 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 13.83% to 405 yuan/ton [9]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 5 to - 120 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 14.43% to 35.81 million tons [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 3.09% to 329900 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 200% to - 50 yuan/ton [11]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 spread increasing by 1610 to - 280 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In October, the tin ore import increased by 33.49% to 11632 tons, and the SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16090 tons [11]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.73% to 22050 yuan/ton, and the alumina price in different regions decreased [12]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the AL 2512 - 2601 spread remaining unchanged at - 35 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In November, the alumina production decreased by 4.44% to 743.94 million tons, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% to 363.66 million tons [12]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.69% to 21750 yuan/ton, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum changed [13]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 15 to - 40 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In November, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74% to 68.20 million tons, and the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 7.06% to 7.64 million tons [13]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of East - China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased [15]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 30 to - 50 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% to 40.17 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 35.82% to 4.51 million tons [15]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52300 yuan/kg, and the basis decreased by 41.13% to - 4890 yuan [16]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the main contract price increasing by 2.56% to 57190 yuan [16]. Fundamental Data - The polysilicon production decreased by 14.48% to 11.46 million tons, and the import volume increased by 11.96% to 0.14 million tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 1.07% to 94500 yuan/ton, and the lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price increased by 0.83% to 1220 dollars/ton [17]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 200 to - 380 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In November, the lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35% to 95350 tons, and the demand increased by 5.11% to 133451 tons [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market shows neutral to strong strength, with prices fluctuating at a high level both domestically and internationally [2]. - Domestic zinc inventories continue to decline, and galvanizing开工率 has rebounded [3][4]. - The domestic zinc supply is expected to decrease due to large losses in imported zinc concentrates and the shutdown of northern mines at the end of the year. The consumption side is in the off - season, and downstream demand is seasonally weak [6]. - Abnormal premium structures have appeared in London this year, indicating a shortage of overseas spot supplies. Although the export window has opened and domestic supplies have flowed overseas, the LME inventory accumulation is slow, and the risk of overseas inventory structure still exists. There is an expectation of zinc element surplus next year, but in the short term, prices may have upward elasticity [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc last week was 23,605 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.29%, and the night - session closing price was 23,305 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 3,139 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.31% [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased by 9,447 tons to 51,282 tons, and the total SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 11,339 tons to 80,577 tons. The social inventory decreased by 12,100 tons to 128,200 tons. The LME zinc inventory increased by 6,550 tons to 61,925 tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 300 tons to 3,300 tons [7]. - **Processing Fees and Profits**: The imported zinc concentrate processing fee decreased from 58 dollars/ton to 51 dollars/ton, and the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased from 2,050 yuan/ton to 1,850 yuan/ton. The imported zinc concentrate smelting profit decreased by 239 yuan/ton to - 5,003 yuan/ton, and the domestic zinc concentrate smelting profit decreased by 176 yuan/ton to - 1,442 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2. Industry Chain Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories have declined from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories have decreased [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore enterprises' profits have rebounded and are at a medium - to - high level in history, while smelting profits have declined and are at a historical low. Galvanized pipe enterprises' profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **开工率**: Zinc concentrate开工率 has rebounded and is at a medium level in the same period in history. Refined zinc开工率 has declined and is at a medium level in the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing开工率 has rebounded, while die - casting zinc and zinc oxide开工率 have declined and are at a medium - to - low level in history [14][15]. 3.3. Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have weakened. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation this week, with the premium in Singapore remaining stable and the LME CASH - 3M declining from a high level [18][19]. - **Spreads**: The C - structure of SHFE zinc has flattened [21]. - **Inventory**: Domestic inventories have shown a slight decline this week, and the position - to - inventory ratio has remained flat. LME inventories are mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a significant increase in total LME inventories. The ratio of cancelled warrants has dropped significantly to a historical low. The bonded - area inventory has remained flat this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has decreased slightly [27][32][35]. - **Futures**: The domestic long - position volume is at a medium level in the same period in history [36]. 3.4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have dropped significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, imported ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased significantly. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a low level, and smelter raw - material inventories have decreased [39][40]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting production has declined and is at a high level in the same period in history. Smelter finished - product inventories have decreased and are at a high level in the same period in history. Zinc alloy production is at a high level [46][47]. - **Imports and Exports**: The refined zinc import volume is not clearly stated, and the export situation shows that although the export window has opened, the volume of goods delivered to warehouses is relatively limited [48]. 3.5. Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [52]. - **Downstream**: The monthly开工率 of downstream industries has rebounded slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period in history. The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows a structural increase [55][71]. 3.6. Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon, and electricity are provided, and the profitability of zinc smelters in some European countries is also shown, but specific analysis conclusions are not clearly stated [73][74][76].

锌产业周报 2025/12/12 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: December 5, 2025 - Report Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views Bullish Factors - Domestic zinc inventory has been continuously declining, with the inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions decreasing by 0.38 million tons, indicating a tightening supply [3]. - Export orders have remained stable, and the improvement in weather has boosted terminal demand, supporting zinc prices [3]. Bearish Factors - The increase in LME zinc inventory indicates supply pressure, and weak consumption has suppressed zinc prices [3]. - Galvanizing enterprises in northern China have reduced their operating rates due to environmental protection restrictions, dragging down downstream demand [3]. Trading Advisory Views - It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of inventory changes and export data on short - term prices and operate with caution [3]. Summary by Directory Processing and Terminal Demand - Multiple data on the zinc processing industry, including the weekly market sentiment index, weekly inventory, and weekly output of galvanized coils, are presented in a seasonal chart format [5]. - Seasonal charts of net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide are provided [6][8]. - Seasonal charts of real - estate - related data such as real - estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, and land transaction area are shown [11][13][15]. - Seasonal charts of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in different sectors are presented [16]. Supply and Supply - side Profit - Seasonal charts of zinc concentrate monthly import volume, SMM zinc ingot monthly output, China's zinc ingot monthly production plus import volume, and zinc concentrate raw material inventory days are provided [19][22][23][25]. - Charts showing the relationship between SMM import and domestic zinc concentrate weekly processing fees, refined zinc enterprise production profit and domestic zinc concentrate weekly processing fees, and LME and SHFE zinc inventory are presented [21][22][25][26]. Futures and Spot Market Review - Charts of domestic and international zinc price trends, Shanghai zinc main contract trading volume and open interest, LME zinc closing price and US dollar index, LME zinc premium and discount, and zinc ingot basis are presented [28][29][30][32][34][37].

1. Investment Ratings The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and consider buying on dips. Monitor macro - level changes and supply - side dynamics [1]. Alumina - The oversupply situation of alumina continues to suppress prices. Expect prices to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern, with the main contract's reference operating range shifting down to 2600 - 2800 yuan/ton. Observe actual production cuts and inventory inflection points [3]. Aluminum - Expect short - term aluminum prices to remain strong, with the main SHFE aluminum contract's reference operating range at 21500 - 22200 yuan/ton. Focus on the latest Fed monetary policy and domestic inventory drawdown sustainability [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by cost and demand. Short - term prices are expected to be relatively strong, with the main contract's reference operating range at 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Monitor scrap aluminum supply improvement and inventory drawdown [5]. Polysilicon - In December, there is an oversupply situation, and each link has inventory build - up expectations. The market is in a state of a strong futures market with low warehouse receipts and a weak spot market with oversupply. Adopt a wait - and - see trading strategy [7]. Industrial Silicon - Maintain the previous expectation of low - level oscillations in industrial silicon prices, with the main price fluctuation range at 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to end - of - year export demand decline and the impact of warehouse receipts flowing into the spot market [8]. Zinc - In the short term, the downward space of zinc prices is limited, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. Prices are likely to oscillate. Monitor the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventory, with the main contract's reference range at 22200 - 23000 [11]. Copper - The medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price's bottom center. Focus on overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts, with the main contract's support at 88500 - 89500 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Expect short - term wide - range oscillations in the lithium carbonate market, with the main contract's reference range at 92000 - 95000. Pay attention to the sustainability of year - end demand and the progress of large - scale plant复产 [16]. Nickel - Expect short - term range - bound oscillations in nickel prices, with the main contract's reference range at 116000 - 120000. Monitor macro - level expectation changes and Indonesian industrial policy news [19]. Stainless Steel - Expect short - term weak oscillations in stainless steel prices, with the main contract's reference operating range at 12300 - 12700. Focus on steel mills' production cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [20]. 3. Summary by Directory Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price rose 1.51% to 309300 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 spread fell 38.67% to 92 dollars/ton; import loss decreased 13.91% to - 16070.31 yuan/ton; some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, tin ore imports increased 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased 53.09%, refined tin imports decreased 58.55%, and exports decreased 15.33%. Inventory increased, with SHEF inventory rising 2.09% and social inventory rising 2.23% [1]. Market Analysis - Macro: US ADP data decline strengthens Fed rate - cut expectations. Supply: Tin ore supply is tight, with limited improvement expected this year. Demand: Tin solder enterprises in South China are more resilient than those in East China [1]. Alumina Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose 0.41% to 21800 yuan/ton; electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased 77.1 yuan/ton to - 1929 yuan/ton; month - to - month spreads remained unchanged [3]. Fundamental Data - In November, alumina production decreased 4.44%, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased 2.82%, and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased 3.50%. Some开工 rates increased slightly, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 2.77% [3]. Market Analysis - Supply: Some enterprises cut production, but overall supply is still abundant, and imports increase supply pressure. Inventory: Domestic visible inventory is accumulating. Cost: Cost support may decline. Price: Expected to oscillate at the bottom [3]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose 0.41% to 21800 yuan/ton; electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased 77.1 yuan/ton to - 1929 yuan/ton; month - to - month spreads remained unchanged [3]. Fundamental Data - In November, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased 2.82%, and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased 3.50%. Some开工 rates increased slightly, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 2.77% [3]. Market Analysis - Macro: Fed rate - cut expectations boost market sentiment, but Japanese central bank's potential rate hike increases volatility. Domestic: Lower aluminum prices stimulate downstream procurement, and inventory decreases [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged; some scrap - to - refined aluminum price spreads increased. Month - to - month spreads changed [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased 5.74%, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased 5.84%. Some开工 rates increased, and recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased 1.59% [5]. Market Analysis - Supply: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and cost support is strong. Demand: Automobile parts orders support demand. Price: Short - term prices are expected to be strong [5]. Polysilicon Price and Spread - Polysilicon spot prices stabilized, and futures prices oscillated higher. The main contract rose 1115 yuan/ton to 57430 yuan/ton. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [7]. Fundamental Data - Weekly and monthly polysilicon and silicon wafer production decreased. Polysilicon imports increased, and exports decreased. Inventory increased, with polysilicon inventory rising 3.69% and silicon wafer inventory rising 4.17% [7]. Market Analysis - The market is in a state of a strong futures market with low warehouse receipts and a weak spot market with oversupply. In December, downstream production is expected to decline significantly, and polysilicon may face inventory build - up pressure [7]. Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - East China oxygen - enriched SI5530 industrial silicon spot price fell 0.52% to 9500 yuan/ton; futures price oscillated lower. Some month - to - month spreads changed [8]. Fundamental Data - In November, national industrial silicon production decreased 11.17%, and some regional production and开工 rates decreased. Organic silicon DMC production increased 3.82%, and industrial silicon exports decreased 35.82%. Inventory increased slightly [8]. Market Analysis - Supply: Production is expected to decline slightly, but demand may also decrease. Inventory: Warehouse receipts will flow into the spot market, increasing supply pressure. Price: Expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose 0.22% to 22790 yuan/ton; import loss decreased 326.75 yuan/ton to - 5143 yuan/ton; some month - to - month spreads changed [11]. Fundamental Data - In November, refined zinc production decreased 3.56%. In October, imports decreased 16.94%, and exports increased 243.79%. Some开工 rates were stable, and LME inventory increased 1.87% [11]. Market Analysis - Supply: TC decline compresses smelting profits, and export space opens, reducing supply pressure. Demand: Some improvement in demand structure, but terminal demand is stable. Price: Expected to oscillate [11]. Copper Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 0.36% to 88980 yuan/ton; some spreads changed. Arbitrage loss decreased 28.61 yuan/ton to - 1433 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In November, electrolytic copper production increased 1.05%. In October, imports decreased 15.61%. Some开工 rates decreased, and domestic social inventory decreased 11.96% [13]. Market Analysis - Macro: Rate - cut expectations boost copper prices. Supply: Concerns about supply shortages persist, and CSPT may cut production. Demand: High copper prices still see spot premiums and stable processing - end开工 rates [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price fell 0.05% to 94350 yuan/ton; month - to - month spreads changed [16]. Fundamental Data - In November, lithium carbonate production increased 3.35%, demand increased 5.11%, imports increased 21.86%, and exports increased 63.05%. Inventory decreased, with total inventory decreasing 23.36% [16]. Market Analysis - Price: The futures market fell. Supply: A new lithium mine project approval stirs the market. Demand: Demand is optimistic, but concerns remain about the sustainability of year - end demand [16]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 0.08% to 120000 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 spread rose 3.53% to - 195 dollars/ton; import loss decreased 39.64% to - 874 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamental Data - Chinese refined nickel production decreased 9.38%, and imports decreased 65.66%. SHFE inventory increased 2.48%, and LME inventory decreased 0.51% [19]. Market Analysis - Macro: Market expects Fed rate hike, and Sino - US call eases sentiment. Supply: Refined nickel spot transactions are average, and nickel ore prices are under pressure. Demand: Stainless steel demand is weak, and nickel sulfate demand is expanding [19]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - 304/2B stainless steel prices remained unchanged; some month - to - month spreads changed [20]. Fundamental Data - Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased 0.72%, and Indonesian production increased 0.36%. Imports increased 3.18%, and exports decreased 14.43%. 300 - series social inventory increased 1.92% [20]. Market Analysis - Macro: Fed rate - hike expectations and Chinese fiscal policies. Supply: Nickel - iron production increases, and supply pressure remains. Demand: It is the off - season, and demand is weak. Price: Expected to oscillate weakly [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and consider adding long positions on price pullbacks. Monitor macro and supply - side changes [1]. Aluminum Oxide The oversupply situation continues to suppress prices, which are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The reference range for the main contract is lowered to 2600 - 2800 yuan/ton. Observe actual production cuts and inventory inflection points [3]. Aluminum Short - term aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, with the reference range for the SHFE main contract this week being 21500 - 22200 yuan/ton. Focus on the latest Fed monetary policy and domestic inventory depletion sustainability [3]. Aluminum Alloy The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by cost and demand. Short - term prices are expected to remain firm, with the main contract reference range at 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Monitor scrap aluminum supply improvement and inventory depletion [5]. Polysilicon In December, there is an oversupply situation, and each link is expected to accumulate inventory. The trading strategy is to wait and see [7]. Industrial Silicon The industrial silicon market in December remains in a weak supply - demand situation. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range at 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [8]. Zinc The zinc price is expected to fluctuate. The supply pressure is relieved, but the fundamentals provide limited upward momentum. The main contract reference range is 22200 - 23000 yuan/ton [11]. Copper The medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price bottom. The main contract support range is 88500 - 89500 yuan/ton. Monitor overseas interest rate cut expectations and smelting production cuts [13]. Lithium Carbonate The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range at 92000 - 95000 yuan/ton [16]. Nickel The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range at 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton. Monitor macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [19]. Stainless Steel The short - term disk is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range at 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton. Monitor steel mills' production cut implementation and ferro - nickel prices [20]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices rose 1.51%, LME 0 - 3 spread dropped 38.67%. Import loss decreased 13.91%, and some monthly spreads changed significantly [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports, SMM refined tin production, and average开工率 increased, while refined tin imports, exports, and SMM solder开工率 decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF, social, and LME inventories increased, while SHEF warehouse receipts decreased slightly [1]. Aluminum Oxide - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum prices rose 0.41%, and most alumina prices remained unchanged. Aluminum import loss decreased, and monthly spreads were stable [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production decreased, while alumina开工率 and some downstream开工率 increased [3]. - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod social inventories decreased, while electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory increased [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM ADC12 alloy prices were stable, and some scrap - to - refined aluminum price spreads increased [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased, while unforged aluminum alloy ingot imports decreased and exports increased [5]. - **Inventory**: Recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased slightly, and some daily inventories changed [5]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: Polysilicon spot prices were stable, futures prices rose, and silicon wafer and component prices fell. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In November and December, polysilicon and silicon wafer production decreased, imports and exports changed, and demand decreased [7]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon spot prices fell slightly, and futures prices declined. Some monthly spreads changed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, national industrial silicon production decreased, and some regional production and开工率 changed. Organic silicon production increased [8]. - **Inventory**: Some regional factory inventories and social inventories increased slightly [8]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot prices rose slightly, and import loss decreased. Some monthly spreads changed [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, refined zinc production decreased, imports decreased, and exports increased. Downstream开工率 was relatively stable [11]. - **Inventory**: Chinese zinc ingot social inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased [11]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper prices rose, and some spreads changed. Import loss increased slightly [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased, and imports decreased. Some processing开工率 decreased [13]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social and SHFE inventories decreased, while bonded and LME inventories increased [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased slightly, and some monthly spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, lithium carbonate production and demand increased, imports and exports increased, and开工率 increased [16]. - **Inventory**: Lithium carbonate total, downstream, and smelter inventories decreased [16]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel prices rose slightly, and some spreads and costs changed [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Chinese refined nickel production and imports decreased, and some inventories increased or decreased [19]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and social inventories increased, while LME and bonded area inventories decreased [19]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B stainless steel prices were stable, and some monthly spreads changed [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Chinese and Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel production changed, imports increased, and exports decreased [20]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social and cold - rolled social inventories increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased slightly [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The fundamentals are entirely positive. Domestic social inventories are continuously declining, November smelting output decreased month-on-month and was significantly lower than expected, and the spot premium is continuously being repaired upwards, reflecting both consumption intensity and supply tightness. Although LME inventories are rising, overseas premiums remain high, and China's export window remains open. TC prices at home and abroad are continuously falling, and smelting comprehensive costs are starting to face losses, with supply-side pressure expected to decline in the future. The fundamentals have shifted from negative to positive, zinc is currently undervalued, the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December has increased, and there is optimism about future consumption [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $165.44 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price changed by 190 yuan/ton to 22,560 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price changed by 170 yuan/ton to 22,520 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -20 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price changed by 180 yuan/ton to 22,490 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -5 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On December 1, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,450 yuan/ton and closed at 22,590 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the day was 128,295 lots, and the position was 105,756 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,620 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,380 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of December 1, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 144,300 tons, a change of -3,800 tons from the previous period. As of December 1, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 52,025 tons, a change of 275 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - The fundamentals are entirely positive. Domestic social inventories are continuously declining, November smelting output decreased month-on-month and was significantly lower than expected, and the spot premium is continuously being repaired upwards, reflecting both consumption intensity and supply tightness. Although LME inventories are rising, overseas premiums remain high, and China's export window remains open. TC prices at home and abroad are continuously falling, and smelting comprehensive costs are starting to face losses, with supply-side pressure expected to decline in the future. The fundamentals have shifted from negative to positive, zinc is currently undervalued, the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December has increased, and there is optimism about future consumption [5] Strategy - **Single-sided**: Cautiously bullish [6] - **Arbitrage**: Inter-period positive spread arbitrage [6]