1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and consider adding long positions on price pullbacks. Monitor macro and supply - side changes [1]. Aluminum Oxide The oversupply situation continues to suppress prices, which are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The reference range for the main contract is lowered to 2600 - 2800 yuan/ton. Observe actual production cuts and inventory inflection points [3]. Aluminum Short - term aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, with the reference range for the SHFE main contract this week being 21500 - 22200 yuan/ton. Focus on the latest Fed monetary policy and domestic inventory depletion sustainability [3]. Aluminum Alloy The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by cost and demand. Short - term prices are expected to remain firm, with the main contract reference range at 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Monitor scrap aluminum supply improvement and inventory depletion [5]. Polysilicon In December, there is an oversupply situation, and each link is expected to accumulate inventory. The trading strategy is to wait and see [7]. Industrial Silicon The industrial silicon market in December remains in a weak supply - demand situation. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range at 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [8]. Zinc The zinc price is expected to fluctuate. The supply pressure is relieved, but the fundamentals provide limited upward momentum. The main contract reference range is 22200 - 23000 yuan/ton [11]. Copper The medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price bottom. The main contract support range is 88500 - 89500 yuan/ton. Monitor overseas interest rate cut expectations and smelting production cuts [13]. Lithium Carbonate The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range at 92000 - 95000 yuan/ton [16]. Nickel The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range at 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton. Monitor macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [19]. Stainless Steel The short - term disk is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range at 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton. Monitor steel mills' production cut implementation and ferro - nickel prices [20]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices rose 1.51%, LME 0 - 3 spread dropped 38.67%. Import loss decreased 13.91%, and some monthly spreads changed significantly [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports, SMM refined tin production, and average开工率 increased, while refined tin imports, exports, and SMM solder开工率 decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF, social, and LME inventories increased, while SHEF warehouse receipts decreased slightly [1]. Aluminum Oxide - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum prices rose 0.41%, and most alumina prices remained unchanged. Aluminum import loss decreased, and monthly spreads were stable [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production decreased, while alumina开工率 and some downstream开工率 increased [3]. - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod social inventories decreased, while electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory increased [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM ADC12 alloy prices were stable, and some scrap - to - refined aluminum price spreads increased [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased, while unforged aluminum alloy ingot imports decreased and exports increased [5]. - **Inventory**: Recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased slightly, and some daily inventories changed [5]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: Polysilicon spot prices were stable, futures prices rose, and silicon wafer and component prices fell. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In November and December, polysilicon and silicon wafer production decreased, imports and exports changed, and demand decreased [7]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon spot prices fell slightly, and futures prices declined. Some monthly spreads changed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, national industrial silicon production decreased, and some regional production and开工率 changed. Organic silicon production increased [8]. - **Inventory**: Some regional factory inventories and social inventories increased slightly [8]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot prices rose slightly, and import loss decreased. Some monthly spreads changed [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, refined zinc production decreased, imports decreased, and exports increased. Downstream开工率 was relatively stable [11]. - **Inventory**: Chinese zinc ingot social inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased [11]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper prices rose, and some spreads changed. Import loss increased slightly [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased, and imports decreased. Some processing开工率 decreased [13]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social and SHFE inventories decreased, while bonded and LME inventories increased [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased slightly, and some monthly spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, lithium carbonate production and demand increased, imports and exports increased, and开工率 increased [16]. - **Inventory**: Lithium carbonate total, downstream, and smelter inventories decreased [16]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel prices rose slightly, and some spreads and costs changed [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Chinese refined nickel production and imports decreased, and some inventories increased or decreased [19]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and social inventories increased, while LME and bonded area inventories decreased [19]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B stainless steel prices were stable, and some monthly spreads changed [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Chinese and Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel production changed, imports increased, and exports decreased [20]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social and cold - rolled social inventories increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased slightly [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For tin, considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Pay attention to macro - level changes and supply - side recovery [2]. - For industrial silicon, expect prices to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. The market will maintain weak supply and demand in December [4]. - For polysilicon, the market is expected to be oversupplied in December with inventory accumulation expected in each link. Futures should be put on hold for now, and out - of - the - money put options can be bought on the options side when volatility is low [5]. - For zinc, the short - term price has limited downside space, but the fundamentals also provide limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. Prices are likely to oscillate. Pay attention to the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventory [7]. - For copper, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices. Pay attention to overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts [8]. - For nickel, the overall driving force is still limited. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Pay attention to macro - level expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [11]. - For stainless steel, the short - term low - valuation situation may lead to some price recovery, but the driving force is limited. Prices are expected to remain weakly oscillating. Pay attention to steel mills' production cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [14]. - For aluminum, alumina prices are expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [15]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term price has support, but the unilateral driving force is weakened. The market is expected to oscillate widely around 95,000 yuan [16]. - For aluminum alloy, the short - term price trend of the casting aluminum alloy market is still strong. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and the sustainability of inventory reduction [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 2.73% to 308,200 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged. Import loss widened by 15.76% to - 19,428.35 yuan/ton. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, refined tin imports decreased by 58.55%, and exports decreased by 15.33%. SHEF and social inventories increased slightly [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of industrial silicon stabilized, and the futures price fluctuated. The basis of the main contract decreased. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% in November, and the national operating rate increased by 9.98%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 3.82%, while polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%. Social inventory increased slightly [4]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of polysilicon stabilized, and the futures price rose. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly and monthly polysilicon production decreased, imports increased by 11.96%, and exports decreased by 27.99%. Inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.85% to 22,560 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased. Import loss decreased, and some monthly spreads changed [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%. In October, imports decreased by 16.94% and exports increased by 243.79%. LME inventory increased, and domestic social inventory decreased [7]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 2.15%, and the premium decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 18.01%, and the import loss widened [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%. In October, imports decreased by 15.61%. Domestic social inventory decreased, and some operating rates decreased [8]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased slightly, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 1.05%. The futures import loss widened by 17.58% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84% in November, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE and social inventories increased, while LME inventory decreased slightly [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of stainless steel remained stable, and the basis decreased. Some monthly spreads changed slightly [14]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72% in November, imports increased by 3.18%, and exports decreased by 14.43%. Social inventory increased slightly [14]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 1.31%, and the premium decreased. Alumina prices in some regions decreased [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%. Some operating rates increased, and domestic social inventory decreased [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.64%, and some monthly spreads decreased [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, demand increased by 5.11%, and total inventory decreased by 23.36% [16]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.70%, and some scrap - refined price differences changed [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%. Some operating rates decreased, and social inventory decreased slightly [18].

研究所 弱势震荡，反弹乏力 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 2025年11月30日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 基本面分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 行情回顾——期货主力合约价格走势 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 2025/06/30 2025/08/31 ...

| | | 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 续增长，市场按需采购为主，现货升水上涨；海外LME库存亦呈现增长。技术面，持仓持稳价格调整，多 空分歧增加。观点参考：预计短线沪镍回升调整，关注118000阻力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 沪镍产业日报 2025-11-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 116900 | -360 01-02月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -210 | -40 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 14845 | -75 主力合 ...

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 近期美联储集体转鸽，美国9月零售数据不及预期，市场对美联储1 2月降息预期再度升温。美国政府结束停摆，后续美元流动性有望 改善。美国总统特朗普11月24日签署行政令，正式启动代号为"创 世使命"的国家级人工智能计划，打开了市场对未来美国铜需求增 长的想象空间。基本面方面，铜管需求和产量旺季不旺，前期铜价 上涨一定程度抑制下游采购需求，但当前下游对高铜价的接受度开 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views of the Report Tin - Short - term macro fluctuations are large, but considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and monitor macro changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [3]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure has eased, and the demand side has shown a structural improvement. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 22,200 - 22,800 [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom. Pay attention to macro drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract reference range of 85,500 - 86,800 [9]. Nickel - The macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. However, the price may fluctuate and recover due to upstream production cuts and low valuations. The medium - term supply surplus still restricts the upside potential. The main contract reference range is 116,000 - 120,000 [13]. Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, the cost support is weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to be weak, with the main contract reference range of 12,200 - 12,600 [15][16]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [18]. Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand are both decreasing, and there is a pressure for inventory accumulation. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price is expected to maintain a weak oscillating adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 86,000 - 90,000 [20]. Polysilicon - Maintain the expectation of high - level range oscillations. For futures, consider going long around 50,000; for options, hold or close sell put positions, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [22]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices increased by 0.76% and 0.75% respectively. The LME 0 - 3 spread rose by 0.71%. The import loss decreased by 3.21%. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, refined tin imports decreased by 58.55%, and exports decreased by 15.33%. The average SMM refined tin operating rate increased by 53.23% [2]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory decreased by 0.46%, social inventory increased by 2.83%, SHEF warrants decreased by 0.37%, and LME inventory remained unchanged [3]. Zinc - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot prices decreased by 0.27%. Some month - to - month spreads decreased. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85%, imports decreased by 16.94%, and exports increased by 243.79%. The operating rates of some primary processing industries changed slightly [7]. - **Inventory**: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 3.58%, and LME inventory increased by 0.21% [7]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper and other copper prices increased slightly. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62%, and imports decreased by 15.61%. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased, while that of recycled copper rod production decreased [9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 8.80%, and some other inventories changed slightly [9]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: Prices of various nickel products increased slightly. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 3.38%, and the import loss increased by 5.36% [13]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel decreased by 4.84%, while that of integrated high - grade nickel matte production increased by 3.75% [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84%, imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.92%, and social inventory decreased by 1.61% [13]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some stainless steel products decreased slightly. Some month - to - month spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72%, and exports decreased by 14.43% [15]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory and SHFE inventory decreased slightly [15]. Aluminum - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum prices decreased by 0.09%. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production increased by 2.39%, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52%, imports increased by 0.61%, and exports decreased by 15.18% [17]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 5.11%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.37% [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained stable in most regions. Some month - to - month spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42%, and that of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06% [18]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.44%, and some daily inventories decreased [18]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of various industrial silicon products decreased slightly. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [19]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46%, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang. Exports decreased by 35.82% [19]. - **Inventory**: Xinjiang factory inventory increased by 4.42%, and social inventory increased by 0.37% [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased slightly. Some month - to - month spreads decreased significantly [20]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73%, demand increased by 8.70%, imports increased by 21.86%, and exports increased by 63.05% [20]. - **Inventory**: Total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 10.90%, downstream inventory decreased by 13.50%, and smelter inventory decreased by 6.03% [20]. Polysilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: Polysilicon spot prices stabilized with a slight decrease, silicon wafer prices decreased, and component prices increased slightly. The futures price oscillated, and the spread structure was in a backwardation [22]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 1.12%, and monthly production increased by 3.08%. Imports increased by 11.96%, and exports decreased by 27.99% [22]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.50%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.63%. Polysilicon warrants decreased by 3.07% [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a unified industry - wide investment rating. Instead, it gives specific investment suggestions for different metals: - Copper: Suggests waiting and seeing or trading in a light - position range [3] - Aluminum: Recommends waiting and seeing [3] - Zinc: Advises range trading [3] - Lead: Recommends range trading and being cautious and bearish [3] - Nickel: Suggests cautious short - holding or waiting and seeing [4] - Stainless steel: Recommends waiting and seeing [4] - Tin: Advises cautious range trading [4] - Industrial silicon: Recommends waiting and seeing [4] - Polysilicon: Suggests low - buying and high - selling [4] - Lithium carbonate: Recommends exiting and waiting and seeing [4] 2. Report's Core View - The macro - environment has a significant impact on metal prices. For example, the uncertainty of the Fed's policy and geopolitical conflicts affect market sentiment. At the same time, the fundamentals of supply and demand also play a crucial role in determining metal prices. Some metals are facing supply - side challenges such as production cuts or disruptions, while others are affected by changes in downstream demand. Overall, the market is complex and volatile, and different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals Market Analysis 3.1.1 Copper - Price trend: The Shanghai copper main contract continues to show a high - level volatile pattern. In the short term, it will remain at 85,000 - 88,000. The long - term demand outlook is optimistic, but in the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant about the suppression of consumption by high copper prices and the pressure brought by changes in the Fed's policy expectations [3]. - Fundamentals: Market consumption has improved recently, and social inventories have declined. The focus has shifted to the long - term contract negotiation of mines. Freeport - McMoRan plans to resume large - scale production in the Grasberg mine in Indonesia in the second quarter of 2026, which is expected to ease the anxiety about mine - end supply [3]. 3.1.2 Aluminum - Price trend: The price has fallen from a high level. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at the current position. - Fundamentals: The price of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan is stable, while the price of imported bauxite in Guinea has decreased. The operating capacity of alumina has increased, and the inventory has also increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged. Some enterprises have carried out production reduction and technological transformation. The downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased slightly [3]. 3.1.3 Zinc - Price trend: The zinc price has fluctuated weakly in the range of 22,000 - 22,800 yuan/ton. - Fundamentals: The processing fees of domestic and imported zinc mines have continued to decline, and there are expectations of production cuts. Terminal consumption is weak, and the inventory is still at a high level [3]. 3.1.4 Lead - Price trend: The Shanghai lead main contract shows a bearish trend and is expected to fluctuate weakly after a rapid decline. The reference range is 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton. - Fundamentals: The supply of Shanghai lead has decreased, and the prices of lead concentrate, lead ingots, and waste batteries have all declined. With the completion of the first large - capacity all - solid - state battery production line in China, the market is affected [3]. 3.1.5 Nickel - Price trend: The price has declined widely and is expected to continue to decline. - Fundamentals: The global refined nickel has continued to accumulate inventory. The price of nickel ore is stable, the price of nickel iron has declined, and the pattern of nickel iron surplus continues. The downstream stainless steel is in the off - season, with weak demand and continuous increase in inventory. The price of nickel sulfate has slightly declined, and the demand is weak [4]. 3.1.6 Tin - Price trend: The price shows a high - level volatile pattern and is expected to rise overall. The reference range is 280,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton. - Fundamentals: The domestic refined tin production has increased year - on - year, and the import of tin concentrate has increased month - on - month. The export of refined tin in Indonesia has decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to continue to recover, and the inventory is at a medium level. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve [4]. 3.1.7 Industrial Silicon and Related Products - Price trend: Industrial silicon is at high risk and is recommended to wait and see; polysilicon is recommended for low - buying and high - selling. - Fundamentals: The production of industrial silicon has decreased, and the inventory of polysilicon has increased. The production of organic silicon has increased, and enterprises have reached a price - holding consensus and formulated production - cut measures. The production of the photovoltaic industry chain is expected to decline slightly [4]. 3.1.8 Lithium Carbonate - Price trend: The price has risen and then fallen, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. - Fundamentals: The supply of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance. The production in October has increased month - on - month, and the import has also changed. The downstream demand is strong, especially in the energy storage field. However, there are still uncertainties in the mining rights of Yichun mines [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Data - The report provides a series of macro - economic data, including the US economic data (such as the New York Fed manufacturing index, durable goods orders, unemployment rate, etc.), euro - zone inflation data, and China's loan market quotation rate (LPR). These data reflect the current economic situation of different regions and have an impact on the metal market [12][15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term fundamentals of nickel are under significant pressure, and nickel prices may continue to be under pressure. The supply side shows that the price of nickel iron is falling rapidly, the expectation of converting to high - grade nickel matte is increasing, the demand for nickel sulfate is gradually weakening, and the supply of refined nickel raw materials is further supplemented. On the demand side, there is no increase in market demand, and domestic and foreign inventories are continuously accumulating. From the cost perspective, the price of nickel ore has shown a slight decline. If the price cannot remain stable in the future, it may have a negative feedback effect and drive down downstream prices. It is not recommended to chase short positions. Instead, wait for the nickel iron price to stabilize before further observation. The short - term operating range of Shanghai nickel is expected to be between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of the LME 3 - month nickel contract is expected to be between 13,500 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: The price of nickel ore was stable with a slight decline this week. In the Philippines, the cost of domestic nickel - iron smelters was in a more severe state of inversion, the demand for ore weakened significantly, and port inventories accumulated significantly. Although the price of Philippine ore did not decline this week, it is expected to be under pressure in the future due to weak terminal demand. In Indonesia, the production of nickel ore has increased significantly recently, the overall supply - demand of pyrometallurgical ore is relatively loose, and the profit margin of Indonesian iron plants is close to zero, so they have a low acceptance of high - priced ore, and the ore price is expected to decline slightly; the market for hydrometallurgical ore remains relatively dull, and the price is expected to remain stable mainly supported by MHP demand [12]. - **Nickel iron**: Terminal consumption was weak this week, and the negative feedback effect drove the price of high - nickel pig iron to continue to decline. On the demand side, it is currently the traditional off - season for stainless steel demand, terminal consumption is weak, downstream enterprises have high inventories, are cautious in purchasing, and have a strong wait - and - see attitude. On the supply side, the market is bearish, some traders continue to sell at reduced prices, and the market quotation and transaction center of gravity have further declined. In the future, the profit level of nickel iron is already at an absolute low, and the price is expected to change with the ore price [12]. - **Intermediate products**: The short - term supply - demand of MHP remains tight. Driven by the reduction of cobalt export quotas in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and strong demand for nickel sulfate, the nickel and cobalt coefficients remain at high levels. High - grade nickel matte plays an obvious supplementary role to MHP, and its coefficient price also remains high. In the future, as the demand for nickel sulfate enters the off - season, the price of intermediate products may loosen [12]. - **Refined nickel**: Nickel prices continued to fall this week. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 114,130 yuan/ton on Friday, a decline of 2.70%, and the LME nickel quoted at 14,620 US dollars/ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 1.75%. Macroscopically, the hawkish stance of Federal Reserve officials combined with the lack of economic data made the market sentiment cautious, and risk assets performed weakly. In the spot market, the overall price was stronger than the futures price, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel increased significantly [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures nickel price trend**: Nickel prices continued to fall this week. As of November 21, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 114,130 yuan/ton on Friday, a decline of 2.70%; the LME nickel quoted at 14,620 US dollars/ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 1.75% [17]. - **Nickel spot premium and discount**: The spot premium and discount remained stable. As of November 14, the average spot price of Russian nickel had a premium and discount of 500 yuan/ton compared to the nearby contract, the same as last week. The spot premium of Jinchuan nickel was reported at 4,000 - 4,400 yuan/ton, with the average price increasing by 300 yuan/ton compared to last week [21]. - **Secondary nickel price**: The price of nickel iron continued to be weak. As of November 21, the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was reported at 882 - 900 yuan per nickel point, with the average price decreasing by 15 yuan per nickel point compared to the same period last week. The price of nickel sulfate gradually weakened. As of November 21, the domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was reported at 27,980 - 28,180 yuan/ton, with the average price decreasing by 310 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week [24]. 3.3 Cost Side - **Nickel ore**: The price of nickel ore was stable with a slight decline. On November 21, the delivered price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at 52.5 US dollars per wet ton, a decrease of 0.2 US dollars per wet ton compared to last week; the delivered price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at 23 US dollars per wet ton, the same as last week; the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore produced in the Philippines was reported at 57 US dollars per wet ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar per wet ton compared to last week [33]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In October 2025, the national refined nickel production was 33,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared to September [48]. - **Demand**: The demand for refined nickel is related to the production and inventory of stainless steel, as well as the terminal demand of the manufacturing and real estate industries. However, specific demand data and trends are not clearly summarized in the text [49][51]. - **Import and export**: No specific analysis of import and export trends was provided in the text [53]. - **Inventory**: The global visible nickel inventory increased by 761 tons to 306,094 tons this week, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down slightly [57]. - **Cost**: No specific cost - related analysis was provided in the text [58]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: No specific analysis of supply trends was provided in the text [62]. - **Demand**: No specific analysis of demand trends was provided in the text [65]. - **Cost and price**: No specific analysis of cost and price trends was provided in the text [67]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The global supply and quarterly supply - demand balance of nickel from 2019 to 2025 were predicted. From 2023 to 2025, the overall supply of nickel exceeded demand, and the supply - demand gap showed a certain degree of fluctuation. For example, in 2023, the supply - demand gap was 82,900 tons; in 2024, it was 53,200 tons; and in 2025, it is expected to be 126,600 tons [74].

Core Viewpoint - Lygend Resources & Technology is initiated with an OUTPERFORM rating and a target price (TP) of HK$27.56, reflecting a 10x 2026 estimated P/E ratio, due to its leadership in the global nickel industry and integrated operations across the nickel supply chain [1] Company Overview - Lygend Resources & Technology has transitioned from nickel ore trading to industrial operations, establishing a comprehensive presence in the nickel industry chain, including trading, smelting, production, and equipment manufacturing [1] - The company has secured long-term trade and supply agreements with upstream mining companies in the Philippines, Indonesia, and other regions, enhancing its resource stability [1] Competitive Advantages - The construction of a nickel business ecosystem covering the entire industry chain provides Lygend with distinctive competitive advantages, including stable resource supply through equity stakes granted to Indonesian partners [2] - The establishment of independent overseas industrial parks equipped with necessary infrastructure allows for operational autonomy and reduced transaction costs [2] - Collaborations with high-quality resource suppliers and long-term agreements with top-tier LiB material suppliers strengthen the company's position across the industry chain [2] Market Dynamics - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has announced a cobalt export quota system, which is expected to lead to a systematic increase in average cobalt prices, as the quotas for 2026-2027 will only account for 44% of its 2024 production [3][4] - The tightening regulations on cobalt export quotas are anticipated to benefit Lygend's hydrometallurgy project in Indonesia, potentially boosting earnings and valuation [4] Financial Projections - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for Lygend is projected at Rmb1.74 in 2025 and Rmb2.49 in 2026, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48% from 2024 to 2026 [4] - The stock is currently trading at 10.2x 2025 estimated P/E and 7.0x 2026 estimated P/E, with a target price suggesting a 43% upside [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - The recent decline in nickel prices is due to the superposition of fundamental pressures, with the continuous weakness of ferronickel prices being the direct cause and the decline in nickel sulfate demand exacerbating the surplus expectation of refined nickel [2][5][12]. - The short - term support level for nickel prices may be around 115,000 yuan/ton, but it is not recommended to buy at this level [12]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Recent Nickel Price Decline - Recently, nickel prices broke through the previous shock platform, with the Shanghai nickel main contract closing at 117,080 yuan/ton on November 14, a decline of 2.16%, and the LME nickel at $14,860/ton, a weekly decline of 1.07% [5]. - The decline is due to the continuous growth of refined nickel inventory since October, the accelerated decline of ferronickel prices since November, the expected increase in refined nickel supply, and the weakening demand for nickel sulfate [5]. Weak Ferronickel Price and High - Ice Nickel Conversion Expectation - Stainless steel demand is weak, driving down ferronickel prices. As of November 14, the domestic high - nickel pig iron ex - factory price has dropped to around 900 yuan/nickel point [7]. - The price deviation between refined nickel and ferronickel has led to a higher premium of refined nickel, increasing the expectation of ferronickel conversion to high - ice nickel. High - ice nickel production reached 36,000 tons in October and is expected to increase in November [7]. Weakening Nickel Sulfate Demand - Affected by the over - expected growth of new energy vehicles, ternary battery production was strong in the third quarter, but nickel sulfate demand may have reached its annual high seasonally [9]. - The cancellation of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy in 2026 may lead to a decline in new energy vehicle sales, and a significant drop in the premium of nickel sulfate over refined nickel may push intermediates into the refined nickel market, exacerbating the surplus expectation [9]. Short - Term Support for Nickel Prices - The continuous weakness of ferronickel prices and the decline in nickel sulfate demand are the main reasons for the decline of refined nickel prices [12]. - The current ferronickel profit level is at an absolute low, and the ferronickel price may be close to a phased low. The corresponding nickel price support level is around 115,000 yuan/ton [12].