1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, the short - term is affected by the departure of pre - holiday funds, and the mid - line contradiction lies in Indonesian policies. The market is mainly trading on the expectation of Indonesian nickel ore policies, while the fundamentals mainly limit the price elasticity. There is a possibility of a secondary price increase after the Spring Festival if the approval volume by March is lower than expected [4][5]. - For stainless steel, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has shifted upward. The overall trend follows that of nickel and other non - ferrous metals. The uncertainty is increased by news such as Indonesian quotas, associated product pricing, and mining violation fines. The market's directional breakthrough depends on the dynamics of Indonesian quota policies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Key Events - **Quota Event**: Indonesia is still in the process of approving nickel ore quotas, with a target of 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. Some enterprises have obtained quotas, but the amount is currently lower than in previous years. There are differences in expectations between the secondary market and the industry regarding Indonesian policies, leading to a game on the futures market. If the annual target quota is implemented, it may reverse the oversupply expectation to a shortage [1]. - **Associated Mineral Event**: Indonesia intends to include associated minerals like cobalt in the pricing and taxation system. This may increase the ore - purchasing cost of the smelting end by about 5% - 10%. However, if the increased cost can be passed on to downstream cobalt products, the impact on the nickel wet - process cost will be limited [2]. - **Conflict Event**: Multiple enterprises in Indonesia are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegally occupying forest land. The negotiation process of the fines is worthy of attention as it may indirectly lead to higher ore prices and smelting costs. There are also issues of monopoly in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park, indicating stricter supervision [2]. - **Other Events**: In early 2026, Vale suspended its nickel mining business but later resumed normal operations after obtaining partial mining quotas. It is speculated that Indonesia may favor leading enterprises and wet - process projects [3]. Market Views - **Shanghai Nickel**: The departure of pre - holiday funds has an impact. The macro - environment has cooled the sentiment of non - ferrous metals. The market risk preference may decrease, and there is a risk of further capital withdrawal. The current fundamentals of nickel are not strong, with high inventory and marginal inventory accumulation. The industry tends to sell at high prices for hedging. The price is mainly determined by the expectation of Indonesian nickel ore policies. There is a possibility of a price increase after the festival if the policy approval is not as expected [4][5]. - **Stainless Steel**: The overall trend follows that of nickel and other non - ferrous metals. The uncertainty is increased by various news. If the quota policy is implemented, it may support ferronickel. The cost of stainless steel has increased, and the cost support center has shifted upward. In February, the production schedule has decreased, and there is a seasonal inventory accumulation expectation. The market needs to focus on the dynamics of Indonesian quota policies [6]. Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On February 6, China's social inventory increased by 1191 tons to 70429 tons, with an increase in warehouse receipt inventory and a decrease in spot inventory. The LME nickel inventory decreased by 1002 tons to 285282 tons [7]. - **New Energy**: On February 6, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines remained the same month - on - month. The precursor inventory increased by 0.2 days to 13.3 days, and the ternary material inventory increased by 0.3 days to 7.2 days [7]. - **Ferronickel - Stainless Steel**: On February 5, the full - industrial - chain inventory of SMM ferronickel decreased by 11% month - on - month to 11.9 million metal tons. In January, the stainless steel factory inventory was 1.5 million tons, with a year - on - month and month - on - month increase of 4% and 1% respectively. On February 5, the stainless steel social inventory was 964960 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.29% [7]. Market News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain products through the OSS platform [8]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have implemented export license management for some steel products since January 1, 2026 [8]. - Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection [8]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [10]. - Multiple enterprises in Indonesia are facing potential fines for illegally occupying forest land, and the final fine amount may be lower than the initial estimate [10]. - Indonesia will adjust the 2026 nickel ore production quota according to industry demand, with the production possibly ranging from 250 million to 260 million tons [10]. - The IMIP park in Indonesia is facing issues of monopoly in port storage and logistics and is in negotiation [10]. - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way to Yangjiang, China [11]. - Indonesia has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget [11]. - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months [11]. - Indonesia's investment department reported that a subsidiary of Tsingshan Holding Group has not submitted an investment activity report [12]. Weekly Key Data Tracking of Nickel and Stainless Steel The report provides data on futures prices, trading volumes, product prices, and spreads of nickel and stainless steel, including the closing prices, trading volumes of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures, prices of various nickel and stainless steel products, and relevant spreads [15].

Core Insights - The Philippine Statistics Authority reported that in December 2025, the country exported 1.996634 million tons of nickel ore [1] - Of the total nickel ore exports, 1.362 million tons were shipped to China, while 0.634634 million tons were sent to Indonesia [1] Export Data Summary - Total nickel ore exports from the Philippines amounted to 1.996634 million tons in December 2025 [1] - Exports to China accounted for 1.362 million tons, representing a significant portion of the total exports [1] - Exports to Indonesia were recorded at 0.634634 million tons, indicating a notable trade relationship [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - Nickel futures market is under pressure due to a strong US dollar, with LME nickel closing down 0.37% at $17,330 per ton, a decrease of $65 per ton from the previous trading day [1] - Domestic nickel futures on the Shanghai exchange also showed weakness, with the main contract closing at 135,600 yuan per ton, down 340 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.25% [1] Group 2: Recent Developments - The nickel market experienced a sudden and significant price drop, attributed to mixed economic data from the US, including a much lower-than-expected ADP employment figure of only 22,000 jobs, while the services PMI unexpectedly rose [2] - Geopolitical concerns arose from a key mineral cooperation agreement between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the US, granting the US exclusive development rights to certain undeveloped nickel-cobalt mining areas, raising fears about future resource allocation [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The nickel market is facing dual pressures of "supply easing and demand weakening," with high global visible inventories contributing to ongoing selling pressure [3] - Seasonal demand weakness is evident as both the stainless steel and new energy battery sectors enter a period of reduced activity ahead of the Chinese New Year, leading to a lack of intrinsic support for nickel prices [3] Group 4: Industry Outlook - Price volatility is leading to differentiation within the industry, with integrated leading enterprises that have access to Indonesian resources demonstrating stronger risk resilience due to cost advantages [4] - The short-term outlook suggests that nickel prices may continue to experience weak fluctuations, while the medium to long-term trend will depend on the actual implementation of Indonesian policies and the strength of post-holiday demand recovery [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core game of nickel and stainless steel lies in Indonesia's nickel policies, with events such as quota adjustments, inclusion of associated minerals in pricing, fines for illegal land use, and suspension of mining operations affecting the market [1]. - For Shanghai nickel, there is a contradiction between high - inventory and marginal inventory accumulation, and an increase in supply elasticity after profit repair. The market has different expectations for Indonesia's nickel ore policies, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely due to the confrontation between hedging and speculative funds. It is recommended to consider options and pay attention to structural opportunities [3][4]. - For stainless steel, it is in a situation of weak supply and demand with off - season inventory accumulation. Cost logic supports the bottom of the price range, but the consumption side lacks upward drive. The price may fluctuate in the short term, and the breakthrough in direction depends on the dynamics of Indonesia's quota policies [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Indonesia's Nickel Policy Events - **Quota Event**: Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry may adjust the nickel ore quota to 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. If the target quota is implemented, it may turn the oversupply expectation into a shortage and impact high inventories. There is a divergence in expectations between the secondary market and the industry [1]. - **Associated Minerals Event**: Indonesia wants to include associated minerals like cobalt in the pricing and taxation system, which may increase the ore - purchasing cost of the smelting end by about 5% - 10%. However, if the cost can be passed on, the impact on nickel cost will be limited [1]. - **Conflict Event**: Multiple companies in Indonesia are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal land occupation. The fine negotiation process and monopoly issues in the IMIP port may increase market concerns about resource supply [2]. - **Other Events**: Vale suspended its nickel - mining business at the beginning of 2026 but later resumed normal operations. It is speculated that Indonesia may favor leading enterprises and wet - process projects [2]. Market Quotes - **Shanghai Nickel**: Overseas news is emerging one after another, and there is a game between hedging and speculative positions. The price is affected by factors such as high inventory, profit - driven supply increase, and differences in policy expectations. It is recommended to use options for trading and pay attention to structural opportunities [3][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: It faces pressure from off - season inventory accumulation and weak supply - demand fundamentals. Cost logic supports the price, but the consumption side is weak. The price may fluctuate in the short term, waiting for policy - driven breakthroughs [5]. Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On January 30, China's social inventory increased by 6,622 tons to 69,238 tons, with an increase rate of 10.58%. LME nickel inventory increased by 2,556 tons to 286,284 tons [6]. - **New Energy**: On January 30, the inventory days of SMM's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of nickel sulfate were 5, 9, and 7 days respectively, with a month - on - month change of +0, +2, and +0 days. The precursor inventory increased by 0.1 days to 13.1 days, and the ternary material inventory increased by 0.1 days to 7.0 days [6]. - **Nickel - Iron and Stainless Steel**: On January 29, the SMM's full - industry chain inventory of nickel - iron decreased by 10% month - on - month to 121,000 metal tons. In December, the SMM's stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.48 million tons, with a year - on - month/ month - on - month change of +1%/ - 7%. On January 29, the social inventory of stainless steel was 952,674 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.37% [6]. Market News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain products through the OSS platform [7]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have implemented export license management for some steel products since January 1, 2026 [7]. - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection [7]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [8]. - Multiple companies in Indonesia are facing potential fines for illegal land occupation, and the final fine amount may be lower than the initial estimate [8]. - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Minister said that the 2026 nickel production quota will be adjusted according to industry demand, and the production may be around 250 - 260 million tons [8]. - The IMIP park in Indonesia is facing a monopoly investigation in port storage and logistics, but ship transportation is currently normal [8]. - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way to Yangjiang, China [9]. - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has started approving the 2026 mining work plans and budgets [9]. - Solvay Investment Group plans to restart its nickel - mining business in Guatemala in a few months [9]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and other indicators of Shanghai nickel, stainless steel, and related products, as well as price differentials and profit margins [11]. Graphs - The report includes a series of graphs showing the price trends, trading volumes, inventory changes, and cost - profit situations of nickel, stainless steel, and related products over different time periods [12][14][15][17][18][20][22][24].

Core Viewpoint - Nickel is experiencing a significant price correction due to a combination of macroeconomic pressures, fundamental discrepancies, and capital withdrawal, leading to a rapid decline in global nickel prices [1][2]. Macroeconomic Factors - Major economies are facing weak growth prospects, which diminishes short-term demand expectations for industrial metals. Adjustments in central bank monetary policy have increased the relative attractiveness of the US dollar, putting pressure on dollar-denominated commodities [1][2]. - Geopolitical tensions have shifted risk aversion towards assets like gold, providing limited support for industrial metals [1]. Fundamental Factors - There is a "discrepancy" between expectations and reality in the nickel market. Uncertainties regarding production cuts from key supply countries have weakened the core logic that previously supported prices. High visible inventories have exacerbated perceptions of supply looseness [2]. - Demand from major downstream industries is weak, with only rigid procurement being maintained, and high prices significantly suppressing demand. Emerging sectors are not yet sufficient to offset the weakness in traditional areas [2]. Capital Behavior - After significant prior gains, the market has accumulated substantial profit-taking positions. When negative signals emerged from macro and fundamental aspects, this capital concentrated on exiting the market, triggering a rapid price correction [2]. Supply Side Dynamics - Indonesia, which dominates nearly 70% of global nickel supply, has drastically reduced its nickel ore quota for 2026 to 250-260 million tons, a drop of over 34% from the previous year, reinforcing expectations of long-term supply shortages [2]. - While domestic electrolytic nickel capacity in China is increasing, the raw material supply is constrained by Indonesian policies, limiting overall growth [2]. Demand Side Dynamics - The demand for nickel is currently characterized by a transitional phase, with significant slowdowns in the stainless steel sector, which heavily relies on the Chinese real estate market, now in decline [3]. - In the emerging energy sector, the demand structure is changing, with lithium iron phosphate batteries gaining market share at the expense of high-nickel materials, leading to slow order growth for high-nickel routes [3][4]. Geopolitical Factors - Recent conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have led to a 35% reduction in local nickel production, increasing transportation and insurance costs, which has contributed to a geopolitical premium of 3%-5% on nickel prices [4]. Industry Chain Dynamics - There is a significant profit differentiation across the industry chain, with upstream resource holders benefiting from rising prices, while midstream refining faces pressure and downstream manufacturing struggles with cost increases not being passed on to end products [5]. - The market is currently in a state of oscillation between strong expectations and weak realities, with rising inventories and seasonal demand weakness limiting price increases [5]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term (1-3 trading days), nickel prices are expected to fluctuate between $18,600 and $19,200 per ton, with market activity likely to decrease as the Chinese New Year approaches [6]. - In the medium to long term (1-3 months), nickel prices may have upward momentum as the impacts of Indonesian policies become evident and demand is expected to recover post-spring [6].

Group 1 - Huatai Securities indicates that since mid-January, despite high outflows from broad-based ETFs, there remains incremental investment from insurance funds and arbitrage demand, suggesting continued market momentum [1] - The rotation of investment focus is expected to shift from thematic sectors to those with performance verification, particularly in industries with sustainable recovery capabilities, such as the price increase chain, high-end manufacturing, and AI chain [1] - Specific sectors to consider for allocation include electric power equipment, basic chemicals, and semiconductor equipment, with a recommendation for moderate allocation to cyclical dividends [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities reports that the Indonesian government is expected to reduce nickel ore production quotas for 2026 to 250 million to 260 million tons, significantly lower than the 2025 quota [2] - If the 2026 production quota is implemented, Indonesia's nickel output is projected to decline to 2.6 million to 2.7 million tons, leading to a global nickel supply shortage of 200,000 tons, which may drive LME nickel prices up to $22,000 per ton [2] - The long-term regulatory stance of Indonesia towards the mining industry is becoming stricter, which is likely to slow the growth rate of nickel production and support a gradual recovery in nickel prices from the bottom [2] Group 3 - Huatai Securities anticipates that the Federal Reserve is likely to pause interest rate cuts in January, maintaining its forward guidance for December 2025, with minimal new information expected [3] - Attention is drawn to Powell's statements regarding the interest rate path, the independence of the Federal Reserve, and whether he will remain as a board member [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global nickel price has entered a sustained upward trend since late December 2025, driven by tightening supply policies from Indonesia, capital market dynamics, and changes in futures market inventory and trading mechanisms [2][10]. Supply Side: Indonesia's Quota Reduction - Indonesia, which accounts for nearly 70% of global nickel production, has significantly reduced its nickel ore production quota for 2026 to 250-260 million tons, down over 34% from 379 million tons in 2025, establishing a fundamental support for rising nickel prices [3][4]. - The Indonesian government aims to stabilize nickel prices between $19,000 and $20,000 per ton, reflecting a strategic shift from "capacity expansion" to "value enhancement" in its nickel industry [3][4]. Capital Side: Market Dynamics - The rapid increase in nickel prices is largely attributed to capital market speculation following the announcement of Indonesia's quota reduction, with bullish capital quickly increasing positions in the futures market [5][6]. - The market has shown a clear division between long and short positions, with domestic industrial capital primarily focusing on hedging, while international markets exhibit a mixed position structure [6][7]. Market Side: Inventory and Mechanism Adjustments - Continuous slight declines in LME nickel inventory and adjustments to trading rules on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have reinforced signals for rising nickel prices [8][9]. - As of January 23, LME nickel inventory decreased by 768 tons to 283,728 tons, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding nickel supply [8]. Trend Analysis and Market Commentary - The current rise in nickel prices is supported by fundamental factors and market signals, indicating a transition from a bottoming phase to an upward trend, with long-term price increases likely [10][12]. - The technical analysis shows that nickel prices have broken through key resistance levels, suggesting further upward potential, with the current prices still positioned in the lower range of historical levels [10][12]. Long-term Industry Logic - The essence of the current nickel price increase is Indonesia's revaluation of its nickel resources, transitioning from a focus on quantity to enhancing price and value through supply tightening [12][13]. - This strategic shift is expected to reshape the global nickel market's supply-demand dynamics, moving from a state of oversupply to a tighter balance [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian government is expected to significantly reduce the nickel ore production quota for 2026 to 250-260 million tons, down from 379 million tons in 2025, which may lead to a global nickel supply shortage of 200,000 tons and an increase in LME nickel prices to $22,000 per ton [1][4]. Group 1: Production Quota and Price Expectations - The Indonesian government anticipates a nickel ore production quota of 250-260 million tons for 2026, a substantial decrease from the 2025 quota of 379 million tons [2][6]. - If the 2026 production quota is implemented, Indonesia's nickel output is projected to decline to 2.6-2.7 million tons, resulting in a global supply shortage of 200,000 tons and a potential rise in nickel prices to $22,000 per ton [4][6]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - In 2025, the Indonesian government introduced several policies to strengthen control over the nickel mining industry, including adjusting the tax rate on nickel ore from a fixed 10% to a floating range of 14%-19% and changing the review period for mining quotas from three years to one year [1][3]. - The government has also imposed strict penalties for illegal nickel mining activities, with fines reaching up to 6.5 billion Indonesian rupiah per hectare [1][3]. Group 3: Global Nickel Market Dynamics - Indonesia accounts for approximately 60% of global nickel production, and the government has begun to limit the output of nickel smelting operations, which may lead to a decrease in overall nickel production capacity [3][4]. - The global nickel supply and demand for 2026 are projected to be 4.09 million tons and 3.82 million tons, respectively, indicating a supply surplus of 270,000 tons if the Indonesian production quota is not enforced [4].

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities reports that Indonesia's nickel ore production quota is expected to decrease significantly in 2026, which may lead to a sustained increase in nickel prices [1] Group 1: Production Quota - The Indonesian government is projected to set the annual nickel ore production quota for January 2026 at 250 million to 260 million tons, a substantial decline from the 2025 quota [1] - If the 2026 production quota is implemented, Indonesia's nickel output is expected to drop to 2.6 million to 2.7 million tons [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The anticipated reduction in nickel supply could result in a global nickel industry shortfall of 200,000 tons [1] - LME nickel prices are expected to rise to $22,000 per ton as a consequence of the supply shortage [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The regulatory environment for the mining industry in Indonesia is becoming increasingly stringent, which is likely to slow the growth rate of nickel production [1] - Nickel prices are expected to gradually recover from their current low levels in the long term [1]

Group 1 - The CEO of PT Vale Indonesia expressed concerns that the approved mining production quota for the year may be insufficient to meet the demands of the smelter set to come online later this year, as the company received only about 30% of its requested quota [1] - Vale and its partners are currently constructing three High-Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) plants to extract nickel materials used in electric vehicle batteries, with the Pomalaa plant expected to start operations in August and the Bahodopi plant projected to be completed in Q4 [2][3] - The Pomalaa plant has an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons of Nickel Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP) and will require 21 million tons of nickel ore annually, while the Bahodopi plant will need 10.4 million tons of nickel ore to produce 66,000 tons of MHP [2][3] Group 2 - Vale and its partners plan to invest $4.5 billion in the Pomalaa project and $2 billion in the Bahodopi project [4] - Another plant located in Sorowako, Southeast Sulawesi, is expected to begin operations next year [5] - The company has set a target for high-grade nickel production of 71,234 tons by 2025, having produced 66,848 tons as of November [6][7]