日度报告——综合晨报 美联储与会者对通胀前景看法不一 宏观策略（股指期货） [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-10 国办发文推出新一批稳就业支持政策 股市冲高回落，市场情绪有所降温，但依旧放量。当前阶段核 心线索仍在于海外关税政策演变的不确定性、上市公司利润增 长与估值水平的错配。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 报 物价仍然偏低运行，且上游物价的走弱迹象是较为明显的，但 由于市场对于经济形势已经有了充分了解，基本面数据很难压 制市场风险偏好。短期交易盘应以震荡思路对待债市。 农产品（豆粕） USDA 7 月供需报告前瞻 随着特朗普向多个国家致信表示将对其征收新关税，市场对贸 易战及美豆出口前景担忧情绪加剧。国内豆粕现货疲弱的态势 延续，昨日沿海油厂豆粕现货报价大体稳定，成交清淡。 有色金属（铜） 艾芬豪：二季度卡莫阿–卡库拉产铜 11.2 万吨 美国关税政策预期反复，对铜征收关税时间与幅度上超预期， 利多美铜但利空伦铜或沪铜，预计盘面短期将震荡下行。 美联储会议纪要：与会者对通胀前景看法不一 综 美联储最新的利率会议纪要显示内部分歧出现，对于通胀走势 判断还是有所区别，市场风险偏好回升。 ...

华泰证券研报表示，节后 猪价持续强于预期、叠加猪企成本持续改善或有望带动盈利超预期，"反内 卷"政策引导或有望利好2025年下半年、及中长期猪价表现，建议关注生猪养殖板块。其中低成本、优 质猪企盈利兑现能力或更强。 ...

Core Insights - The chicken farming industry in Cenxi, Guangxi, is set to expand significantly, with a target production capacity of 35 million three-yellow chickens this year, generating an annual output value exceeding 1.5 billion yuan [1][2] - The "company + farmer" model has been successfully implemented across 14 towns in Cenxi, providing farmers with free chicks, feed, and technical support, while ensuring guaranteed buyback prices [2] - The integration of modern technology in chicken farming has led to reduced labor requirements and improved efficiency, with labor needs decreasing from 10 to 3 workers for every 10,000 chickens, and feed-to-meat ratios improving by 10% [2] Industry Developments - The organic fertilizer market is being bolstered by the scientific treatment of chicken manure, which can be sold for 600 yuan per ton, contributing to sustainable farming practices [1] - The introduction of smart farming technologies, such as automated feeding and environmental control systems, is revolutionizing traditional farming methods, enhancing productivity and reducing costs [2] - The development of a chicken culture theme park is planned to promote agritourism, with a goal to achieve an annual output of 50 million chickens and a total industry value of 5 billion yuan by 2027 [3] Market Expansion - Cold chain logistics and pre-prepared food technology are critical for market expansion, with automated production lines enabling rapid processing of chickens into cold chain products [2] - New product innovations in the deep processing sector, including canned chicken soup and ready-to-eat chicken breast, are targeting the younger consumer market [2] - Cenxi's Ma Lu Town has been recognized as part of the second batch of agricultural industry strong town projects, highlighting its potential for growth in the agricultural sector [2]

Core Insights - In 2024, Chinese courts adjudicated 219,000 environmental resource cases, with compensation for ecological damage totaling 9.6 billion yuan, marking an 87.5% increase year-on-year [1] Group 1: Environmental Protection Enforcement - The Supreme Court revealed a case where four companies illegally mined resources under the guise of a wellness tourism project, resulting in significant geological damage and a loss of over 90 million yuan in mineral resources [2] - The Wuhan Intermediate Court imposed criminal liability on the companies for illegal mining and ordered them to pay over 12.9 million yuan for ecological service losses [2] - A detection company and its personnel were penalized for issuing 222 false environmental monitoring reports, leading to a fine of 200,000 yuan and prison sentences for responsible individuals [3] Group 2: Ecological Restoration and Preventive Measures - The Chongqing court executed a ruling to dismantle artificial fish nests in a critical spawning area to ensure ecological balance and protect fish populations [4] - The court mandated the construction of 1,961 square meters of artificial fish nests as a form of ecological restoration following illegal fishing activities [5] - A court in Huzhou issued a prohibition order to prevent activities threatening a newly discovered aquatic species, demonstrating proactive judicial measures for biodiversity protection [6] Group 3: Judicial Protection of Public Health - A pig farming cooperative was found responsible for polluting a drinking water source, affecting thousands of residents, leading to significant financial losses [7] - The Guang'an Intermediate Court ruled against the cooperative for environmental pollution, resulting in the dismantling of the pig farm and ongoing environmental restoration efforts [8] - The court provided judicial recommendations to local authorities to improve agricultural pollution management and prevent future incidents [9]

Core Insights - The article highlights the collaborative efforts of Guangdong Vocational College of Science and Technology in promoting rural revitalization through practical training and community engagement in Leizhu Town [1][11] Group 1: Educational Initiatives - The college's Animal Science Department conducted hands-on training sessions focusing on bamboo shoot quality improvement, which transformed a potentially dull technical class into an engaging discussion among local farmers [2] - Students from the veterinary program participated in a practical vaccination campaign at a modern chicken farm, significantly increasing their efficiency from 300 to 1000 vaccinations per day through innovative techniques [3] Group 2: Community Engagement - A survey was conducted to gather insights from local youth on challenges faced in entrepreneurship, revealing needs for land policy support, design innovation in traditional crafts, and technical guidance in poultry farming [5] - A cultural promotion team documented the stories of overseas Chinese and the heritage of bamboo weaving, aiming to preserve the unique cultural identity of Leizhu Town [7] Group 3: Collaborative Framework - The partnership between the college and Leizhu Town is characterized by a "red engine" of party collaboration, ensuring that technical expertise is directly accessible to local agricultural practices [9] - Future plans include integrating various academic departments to create a comprehensive support system for local industries, focusing on livestock, bamboo, cultural tourism, and prepared foods [9]

Group 1 - Muyuan Foods expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a profit of 10.5 billion to 11 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 924.6% to 973.39% [1][2] - The increase in profit is attributed to a rise in pig sales volume and a decrease in breeding costs compared to the previous year [2][3] Group 2 - TCL Technology anticipates a net profit of 1.8 billion to 2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 81% to 101% [1][4] - The company's revenue is projected to be between 82.6 billion and 90.6 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 3% to 13% compared to the same period last year [1][4] - The semiconductor display business is expected to achieve a net profit exceeding 4.6 billion yuan, marking a growth of over 70% [3] Group 3 - TCL Zhonghuan is projected to incur a net loss of 4 billion to 4.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 3.064 billion yuan in the same period last year [4][5] - The loss is attributed to a decline in product prices and inventory impairment due to supply-demand imbalances in the industry [5] Group 4 - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals expects a net profit of 4.45 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 52% [6] - The increase is partly due to the acquisition of a 10% stake in Shanghai Hutchison Pharmaceuticals, which has been consolidated into the financial statements [6] Group 5 - Northern Rare Earth anticipates a net profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [7] - The growth is driven by improved production management, cost reduction, and increased sales of key products [7] Group 6 - Ganfeng Lithium expects a net profit of 600 million to 640 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 100.73% to 114.12% [13] - The growth is attributed to significant revenue increases and effective cost control measures [13] Group 7 - Foster anticipates a net profit decrease of 49.05% for the first half of 2025, projecting a profit of 473 million yuan [17] - The decline is due to oversupply in the photovoltaic industry and intensified market competition, leading to lower sales prices [17]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, aiming to address the issue of "involution" in market competition [2][8] - Historical cases show that supply-side clearance driven by policy typically begins with market expectations, while the main upward trend requires improvements in industry structure to support cash flow and balance sheet recovery [8][10] - The current round of overcapacity is primarily concentrated in mid- and downstream industries, unlike the previous cycle which was focused on upstream resource sectors [9][10] Group 2 - The report suggests focusing on two main strategies: industries that have experienced prolonged supply-side clearance and are likely to see improvements in supply-demand dynamics, and industries that may benefit from policy-driven accelerated clearance [10][11] - For natural clearance, the report recommends monitoring demand-side indicators for upstream industries and supply-side indicators for mid- and downstream sectors, highlighting sectors such as agricultural chemicals, general machinery, pharmaceuticals, and components [10] - For policy-driven clearance, attention should be given to industries mentioned in recent policies aimed at addressing "involution," including photovoltaic, lithium batteries, automobiles, and cement [10][17]

Core Viewpoint - XianDa Co., Ltd. is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with projections indicating a year-on-year growth of 2443.43% to 2834.73% [2][5]. Summary by Sections XianDa Co., Ltd. Performance - XianDa Co., Ltd. anticipates achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 130 million to 150 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a substantial increase compared to the previous year [5]. - The company also expects a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses to be between 125 million to 145 million yuan, reflecting an extraordinary growth of 15239.01% to 17667.08% year-on-year [5]. - The significant profit increase is attributed to the rising market price of its main product, Acetochlor, which has boosted the company's gross profit margin [6]. - The launch of a new product, Pyrazole Quinclorac, and ongoing market promotion efforts have contributed additional growth to the company's gross profit [6]. - Continuous cost control measures and improved operational efficiency have further supported the company's performance [6]. Market Context - As of July 9, several A-share listed companies released their performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with 13 companies expecting a net profit increase of over 100%, while 9 companies forecasted a decline [2][8]. - Jin'an Guoji is projected to experience a net profit decline of 78.56% to 67.83% for the same period, with a net profit attributable to shareholders estimated between 15 million to 22.5 million yuan [8][9]. - The decline in Jin'an Guoji's profits is primarily due to the absence of significant investment gains that were realized in the previous year, as well as asset impairments from the sale of equity stakes [9].

Core Viewpoint - The integration of content e-commerce is injecting new momentum into the beef industry, promoting industrial upgrades and the establishment of a healthy consumption ecosystem [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The rapid development of internet technology is leading to profound changes in the market environment, with traditional e-commerce models being replaced by content e-commerce [4] - Content e-commerce utilizes precise user tagging and personalized content delivery to create new pathways for brand marketing, presenting unprecedented development opportunities for the beef industry's integration [4] Group 2: Company Initiatives - In 2022, the company collaborated with authoritative media such as CCTV to promote specialty agricultural products from impoverished counties in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang through live streaming, achieving significant results [4] - Major traffic giants like ByteDance are establishing live streaming bases in cities like Chengdu, providing substantial support for agricultural projects through streaming subsidies [4] Group 3: Consumer Engagement - The company emphasizes that every stage of the beef production process, from calf breeding to standardized ranching, slaughtering, cold chain transportation, and retail sales, can be transformed into content [4] - By narrating the stories behind each stage, the company aims to convey a healthy and safe lifestyle, fostering deep brand trust among consumers [4] Group 4: Event Overview - The conference, themed "Industry Prosperity Benefits Agriculture, Chain Movement Promotes Revitalization," focuses on livestock product supply, food quality safety, and increasing farmers' income [1][4] - The event aims to build a cross-domain dialogue platform to explore new directions for the ecological development of the entire beef industry chain, new breeding technologies, and new retail markets [4]

Group 1: Company Performance - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [1] - Muyuan Foods anticipates a net profit of 10.5 billion to 11 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 924.6% to 973.39% [2] - Hongta Securities projects a net profit of 651 million to 696 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase of 45% to 55% [3] Group 2: Business Developments - Dazhihui clarifies that it has not engaged in businesses related to "stablecoins," "virtual asset trading," or "cross-border payments," following a significant stock price fluctuation [4] - Bluetech announces a share transfer agreement where its actual controller will change, with the Ma'anshan Municipal Government becoming the actual controller after the transfer of 18% of shares [5] Group 3: Industry Trends - Jiangsu Electric Power reports a 5.01% year-on-year increase in electricity generation for the first half of 2025 [6] - Jin'an Guoji anticipates a non-recurring net profit growth of 4700% to 6300% for the first half of 2025 [6] - New Beiyang expects a non-recurring net profit growth of 650% to 720% for the first half of 2025 [6]