·芝加哥主要农产品期价6月2日涨跌不一。 ·国际油价6月2日显著上涨，美油、布油分别上涨2.85%和2.95%。 ·纽约金价6月2日上涨2.70%，收于每盎司3404.90美元。 ·伦敦金属交易所基本金属价格6月2日收盘时全线上涨。 【农产品】 芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价2日涨跌不一。当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃 的7月合约收于每蒲式耳4.38美元，比前一交易日下跌5.75美分，跌幅为1.3%；小麦7月合约收于每蒲式 耳5.39美元，比前一交易日上涨5美分，涨幅为0.94%；大豆7月合约收于每蒲式耳10.34美元，比前一交 易日下跌8.25美分，跌幅为0.79%。 加拿大、欧洲、俄罗斯西南部出现干旱天气。在世界小麦供应面临适度威胁的情况下，小麦出现空头回 补。在美国出口需求放缓、贸易协议缺乏的情况下，芝加哥期货交易所整个谷物结构看跌。市场分析机 构警告，不要在美国中部天气有利的情况下追逐反弹。玉米也处于看跌位置，预计6月中旬玉米12月合 约将测试4.25美元至4.30 美元支撑价位。 北半球有利的天气条件，以及临近的巴西玉米收割继续打压农作物期价上涨。市场分析机构建议反弹卖 出。 美国农 ...

Commodity Market Overview - The commodity futures market showed mixed performance during the week of May 26 to May 30, with black commodities being the weakest sector, leading to market attention [1] - Energy and chemical sectors saw significant declines, with fuel down 4.85% and crude oil down 2.97%, while basic metals led gains with nickel up 1.14% and copper up 1.33% [1] - Agricultural products exhibited a mixed trend, with palm oil rising while live pig prices fell [1] Gold Market Analysis - After a strong performance in April, gold prices fell in May, with COMEX gold dropping to a low of $3123 per ounce and experiencing a volatility of over 10% within the month [2] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to easing global tariff concerns, which previously drove prices up, leading to a phase of consolidation in the gold market [2][3] - Analysts expect short-term corrections in gold prices, but a long-term upward trend is anticipated due to factors such as declining dollar credit and ongoing central bank gold purchases [3] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices continued to show a downward trend, with WTI crude at $60.79 per barrel and Brent crude at $62.61 per barrel [4] - OPEC+ agreed to a significant production increase of 410,000 barrels per day, reflecting Saudi Arabia's strategy to regain market share from U.S. shale producers [4][5] - Demand forecasts for global oil consumption have been downgraded, with OPEC's predictions for 2025 and 2026 showing a decrease of 50,000 barrels per day from previous estimates [5] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.5% in May, indicating a slight improvement in economic activity [6] - High-tech manufacturing continued to expand, with a PMI of 50.9%, while the service sector also showed signs of stability [6][7] - Analysts suggest that recent financial policies and easing trade tensions contributed to the rebound in manufacturing activity [7] Sector-Specific Trends - In the energy and chemical sector, OPEC+'s planned production increases are expected to exert downward pressure on oil prices, while domestic fuel oil inventories are rising [8] - The black commodity sector is facing weak demand for iron ore, with steel production declining and inventory levels remaining high [9] - In the agricultural sector, palm oil prices are rebounding due to improved export demand, while soybean crushing in China is at high levels, impacting domestic oil prices [10]

金十数据5月29日讯，在美国国际贸易法院裁定特朗普政府征收的广泛关税不合法后，市场情绪积极， 金属价格随之上涨。不列颠环球市场的分析师尼尔・威尔士在一份报告中表示，该裁决影响了对包括中 国、加拿大和墨西哥在内的广泛进口商品征收的10%-25%的关税，促使市场出现风险偏好型持仓。不 过，涨势较为温和。现有的钢铁、铝和汽车零部件关税未受影响，而且白宫打算上诉。威尔士还补充 说，美国的铜价溢价没有变化，这可能表明市场对关税即将调整的预期有限。 美法院裁定关税不合法 伦交所基本金属温和上涨 ...

宏观面缺乏惊喜 金属市场交投清淡 金十数据5月28日讯，基本金属价格涨跌互现，伦敦金属交易所三个月期铜上涨0.4%，报每吨9,637.50 美元，三个月期铝价格持平，报每吨2,482.0美元。Britannia Global Markets的分析师尼尔・威尔士在一 份报告中表示，基本金属价格总体呈现相对区间波动特征，铜和铝周涨幅分别仅为0.9%和0.1%，市场 动能疲软且宏观经济催化剂有限。威尔士指出，较低的库存水平为铝价提供了一定支撑，但季节性需求 低迷和缺乏新宏观经济驱动因素的不利因素，使市场保持谨慎态度。 ...

2025年05月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随上涨 | 2 | | 铜：矿端扰动，价格上涨 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 6 | | 锌：炼厂扰动上行，但持续性或有限 | 8 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 镍：弱预期压制镍价，现实成本支撑 | 12 | | 不锈钢：供需边际双弱，钢价震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025 年 5 月 27 日 黄金：震荡回落 白银：跟随上涨 2 期货研究 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | 沪金2508 | 昨日收盘价 ...

2025年05月26日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 26 日 黄金：震荡回落 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随上涨 | 2 | | 铜：国内库存增加，限制价格上涨 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：触顶回落 | 6 | | 锌：承压运行 | 8 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 镍：弱预期压制镍价，现实成本支撑 | 12 | | 不锈钢：供需边际双弱，钢价震荡运行 | 12 | 白银：跟随上涨 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" [5] Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment has weakened, leading to a resurgence in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 4.75% to $3,357.70 per ounce and SHFE gold increasing 3.76% to ¥780.10 per gram [1][27] - The U.S. economic uncertainty and global trade dynamics are prompting investors to shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver, with expectations of continued price appreciation [3][48] - The ongoing U.S.-EU tariff tensions and the recent U.S. debt auction results have contributed to the volatility in the market, reinforcing the attractiveness of precious metals [3][47] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have increased significantly, with COMEX gold up 4.75% and SHFE gold up 3.76% [1][27] - The gold-silver ratio has risen by 0.99% to 99.81, indicating a stronger performance of gold relative to silver [27] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 119,821.97 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 9,728,859.30 ounces [27] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices rose by 1.76% to $9,614.00 per ton, while aluminum fell by 0.62% to $2,466.00 per ton [52] - SHFE copper prices decreased by 0.45% to ¥77,790.00 per ton, while aluminum prices increased by 0.12% to ¥20,155.00 per ton [52] - The overall sentiment in the base metals market remains mixed, with supply concerns and fluctuating demand impacting prices [7][52] Small Metals - The price of magnesium has increased by 0.11% to ¥18,780 per ton, reflecting strong pricing power among manufacturers [14] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices have shown slight increases, with molybdenum iron at ¥227,500 per ton [15] - The market for small metals is currently stable, with limited price fluctuations observed [15][80]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.61% at 41,603.07 points, the S&P 500 down 0.67% at 5,802.82 points, and the Nasdaq down 1% at 18,737.21 points [1] - Popular tech stocks experienced declines, with Apple dropping over 3%, and Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, and Meta each falling over 1% [1] - European stock indices also closed lower, with the German DAX down 1.54% at 23,629.58 points, the French CAC40 down 1.65% at 7,734.4 points, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.24% at 8,717.97 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.90% at $3,357.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.27% at $33.64 per ounce [1] - International oil prices strengthened, with the main US oil contract rising 0.92% to $61.76 per barrel and Brent crude rising 0.92% to $65.03 per barrel [1] - London base metals saw an overall increase, with LME lead up 1.22% at $1,994.00 per ton, LME copper up 1.19% at $9,614.00 per ton, and LME aluminum up 0.41% at $2,466.00 per ton [1] Bond Market - US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 0.43 basis points at 3.982%, the 10-year yield down 2.26 basis points at 4.506%, and the 30-year yield down 0.29 basis points at 5.038% [1] - European bond yields also declined, with the UK 10-year yield down 6.8 basis points at 4.679%, the French 10-year yield down 6 basis points at 3.258%, and the German 10-year yield down 7.6 basis points at 2.565% [1]

2025年05月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随上涨 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：小幅下跌 | 6 | | 锌：承压运行 | 8 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间调整 | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 12 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 12 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 23 日 黄金：震荡回落 白银：跟随上涨 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日 ...

①美国三大股指小幅收跌，道指跌0.27%报42677.24点，标普500指数跌0.39%报5940.46点，纳指跌 0.38%报19142.71点； ②大型科技股多数下跌，谷歌、亚马逊跌超1%，苹果、英伟达跌近1%； ⑧伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME期锌涨1.79%报2724.50美元/吨，LME期铝涨1.27%报2481.00美元/吨， LME期铅涨1.27%报1986.50美元/吨，LME期铜涨0.33%报9554.50美元/吨，LME期锡涨0.19%报32960.00 美元/吨，LME期镍跌0.21%报15530.00美元/吨； ⑨美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨0.02个基点报3.970%，3年期美债收益率涨0.01个基点报 3.952%，5年期美债收益率涨1.07个基点报4.072%，10年期美债收益率涨3.96个基点报4.489%，30年期 美债收益率涨6.98个基点报4.974%； ③热门中概股多数收跌，携程网跌超5%，蔚来跌近2%，爱奇艺、小鹏汽车跌超1%，阿里巴巴涨超 1%； ⑩欧债收益率普涨，英国10年期国债收益率涨3.9个基点报4.700%，法国10年期国债收益率涨0.3个基点 报3 ...