Investment Rating - The report indicates that the polysilicon industry is currently in an oversupply cycle, with prices continuously declining and significant pressure on corporate profitability [1][12]. Core Insights - The polysilicon industry has entered an oversupply cycle since 2024, leading to a decline in prices and profitability for companies. Some polysilicon manufacturers are responding by reducing production and conducting maintenance to alleviate market pressure. The acceleration of capacity clearance and inventory reduction is expected to support polysilicon prices in the short term [1][12]. - The Chinese government has shown strong support for the polysilicon industry through positive policies and increased regulation, aiming to guide and promote sustainable development within the sector. This includes encouraging technological innovation and reasonable layout of new capacity [2][3]. - The polysilicon industry is experiencing a dual transformation in product forms and material types, with a shift towards N-type materials and breakthroughs in granular silicon technology expected to drive further technological changes [6][11]. Policy Environment - The government has implemented various policies to support the polysilicon industry, focusing on promoting downstream development, encouraging technological innovation, and stabilizing the industry [3][5]. - Key policies include promoting intelligent photovoltaic innovations, supporting high-purity silicon production, and encouraging the automation and digitalization of polysilicon enterprises [5][6]. Industry Structure - As of the end of 2023, China's effective polysilicon production capacity reached 2.3 million tons per year, a year-on-year increase of 97.2%. The new planned capacity for 2024 is estimated at 1.225 million tons [6][7]. - The top five polysilicon companies in 2023 held a market share of over 70%, indicating a high level of industry concentration [7]. Profitability - The profitability of polysilicon companies has been significantly pressured due to declining prices and high inventory levels. In 2024, the inventory of polysilicon is expected to be around 350,000 tons, with prices dropping below cash costs [12][14]. - Major companies like Tongwei Co. have reported continuous losses in early 2024, with a significant drop in sales gross margin [14]. Future Outlook - The acceleration of capacity clearance and inventory reduction is expected to alleviate oversupply in the short term, but the return of polysilicon prices to a reasonable range dominated by supply and demand fundamentals remains uncertain [16]. - The introduction of polysilicon futures trading in late 2024 is anticipated to positively impact market supply-demand relationships and spot prices [16].

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the polysilicon industry is currently in an oversupply cycle, with prices continuously declining and significant pressure on corporate profitability. The industry is rated with caution, emphasizing the need to monitor future supply-demand mismatches and improvements [1][12]. Core Insights - The polysilicon industry has entered an oversupply cycle since 2024, leading to a continuous decline in prices and significant pressure on profitability. Some polysilicon manufacturers are responding by reducing production and conducting maintenance to alleviate market pressures. The acceleration of capacity clearance and inventory reduction is expected to support polysilicon prices in the short term. However, the return of prices to a reasonable range dominated by supply-demand fundamentals remains to be observed [1][12][16]. Policy Environment - Polysilicon is a key raw material for photovoltaic modules and is positioned at the upstream core of the industry chain. Recent national policies have shown positive support and increased regulation to guide and promote the healthy and sustainable development of the industry. The policies aim to improve the supply-demand structure and enhance capacity quality, ensuring high-quality development for the industry [2][3][5]. Industry Structure - The polysilicon industry has seen rapid capacity expansion, with effective capacity reaching 2.3 million tons per year by the end of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 97.2%. Despite this, the downstream demand growth has been relatively weak, leading to an oversupply situation. The top five polysilicon companies hold a market share exceeding 70%, indicating a high industry concentration [6][7][10]. Product Structure - The main product form of polysilicon is rod silicon, but granular silicon is rapidly expanding its market share due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements. The market is transitioning from P-type to N-type silicon, which offers higher photoelectric conversion efficiency. This shift is expected to dominate the polysilicon market in the future [11][10]. Profitability - Since 2023, polysilicon prices have been on a downward trend, significantly impacting the profitability of companies in the industry. However, with some manufacturers implementing production cuts and maintenance, inventory pressure is expected to ease, providing support for polysilicon prices in the short term. The industry is currently facing high inventory levels, with approximately 350,000 tons of polysilicon inventory by the second half of 2024 [12][14][16]. Future Outlook - The acceleration of capacity clearance and inventory reduction is expected to alleviate the oversupply situation in the short term. However, the return of polysilicon prices to a reasonable range dominated by supply-demand fundamentals remains uncertain, especially with potential new capacity releases and increased market supply in the future [16].

本周多晶硅企业仍处签单期，成交价格持稳。n型复投料成交价格区间为3.90-4.60万元/吨，成 交均价为4.17万元/吨，n型颗粒硅成交价格区间为3.80-4.10万元/吨，成交均价为3.90万元/吨，p型 多晶硅成交价格区间为3.20-3.60万元/吨，成交均价为3.40万元/吨。 截至目前，我国所有在产多晶硅企业基本均处于降负荷运行状态，月内有1家企业进入检修， 有至少2家企业开工率轻微上调，其余企业开工率无明显变动，整体来看产量将略有上升，对本月 产量预测维持在9.7万吨左右。 （阎晓宇） 本周多晶硅企业仍在签订本月订单，目前已有一定成交量，本周n型多晶硅有成交的企业数量7 家。价格方面，头部企业对下游报价有较为显著的提升，但还需观望实际落地价格。本周来看实际 成交价格并未出现调整，现货成交价维持稳定。根据企业反馈，本轮抢装节奏过快，价格修复主要 体现在组件环节，由于多晶硅库存量较大的缘故，本轮涨价行情传导至硅料端难度较大，现阶段企 业多以稳价去库存。 根据目前多晶硅价格水平，头部企业与直接下游的N型复投料签单价格在4.1万元/吨及以上，企 业与贸易商签单价格在4.3万元/吨左右，对于大部分在产企业来讲 ...