报告显示，以光伏为首的可再生能源增速领先其他主要能源，到2035年，全球80%的能源消费增长将发 生在太阳辐照优质区域。同时，全球核电产业加速复苏，经历20多年停滞后，预测在2035年前，全球核 电装机容量至少能够实现三分之一的增长。同时，对传统大型核电站和小型模块化反应堆等新型设计的 投资将保持双线增长。 近日，国际能源署发布《2025年世界能源展望》报告强调，未来几十年，全球对能源服务特别是电力需 求将持续增长，包括交通、供暖、制冷、照明及其他家庭与工业用途的能源需求将快速上升，同时，数 据和人工智能相关服务需要的能源供应也将大幅上扬。 电力是当代工业和数字经济的命脉，目前，电力仅占全球终端能源消费的20%，但支撑起全球经济总量 40%以上领域，也是大多数家庭的核心能源保障。在可预见的时间内，全球电力需求增速将远高于能源 消费总量增速。这在当前全球能源投资中已有明显体现，对电力供应与终端电气化投资已占全球能源投 资总量的50%。 国际能源署多年来的分析持续凸显电力在全球经济中日益重要的地位。国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔 指出，与过去10年的趋势不同，电力消费增长不再局限于新兴经济体和发展中经济体。数据中心 ...

新华财经北京11月23日电（记者钟奕高畅）近日，一股强冷空气自西向东影响我国。从北到南大部分百姓套 上了羽绒服，寒风之中能源保供大考拉开帷幕。 暖气热不热、用电稳不稳、生产会不会受影响，成为对能源保供一线的"冰与火"之问。 电力保供：高负荷迎峰度冬 "气温每下降1摄氏度，负荷就会增加30万千瓦。"在国网北京电力调度控制中心，调控中心系统运行处董楠紧 盯着跳动的数字。自北京正式供暖以来，电网负荷持续攀升，今冬最大负荷预计将达到2900万千瓦，较历史 峰值增长超8%。 11月3日，荆门市沙洋县，国网湖北荆门供电公司变电运维人员检查新港储能电站关键设备，确保设备安全稳 定运行。新华网发黄林摄 一边是电网高负荷，一边是今冬更加复杂的天气形势。根据预测，近年来我国雨带和覆冰逐年北抬，华北、 东北等地冬季出现大面积输电线路覆冰灾害情况可能性增大。 塞北寒风中，呼和浩特铁路局姑家堡站灯火通明。调车长刘志刚在列车间穿梭，"车流密集时，必须争分夺 秒，完成列车重新编组。"他呼出的白气在零下气温中瞬间凝结。 "得像下棋，提前想好后面三五步。"友谊水库站长王学惠说。精密计划与灵活指挥相结合，确保每一列电煤 列车"快进快出"。 煤炭 ...

Core Viewpoint - The newly released "Management Measures for the Planning, Construction, and Operation of Oil and Gas Infrastructure" marks a significant shift in China's oil and gas infrastructure management, transitioning from a single commodity management approach to a comprehensive system that includes crude oil, refined oil, and natural gas [3] Group 1: Planning and Coordination - The management measures emphasize the importance of national oil and gas planning, integrating it with land use and regional planning to address key challenges in project implementation [4] - All cross-border and inter-provincial pipeline projects must be included in the national planning before implementation, aiming to eliminate fragmentation and redundant construction in the pipeline network [4] Group 2: Separation of Transportation and Sales - A core initiative of the revised measures is the mandatory separation of transportation and sales businesses, clarifying the responsibilities of companies involved in national oil and gas pipeline construction [5] - Companies engaged in competitive businesses are prohibited from participating in pipeline investment and operation, promoting fair access to infrastructure for all market participants [5] - The measures also address the bottleneck of provincial pipeline networks, encouraging their integration into the national network through market-oriented approaches [5] Group 3: Natural Gas Reserve Responsibility System - The measures establish a multi-layered natural gas reserve system, redistributing storage responsibilities among supply and transportation companies [6] - Local governments' emergency reserve indicators are set to be more scientifically based, while town gas companies are required to maintain a minimum storage capacity [6] - The market mechanism is emphasized for regulating storage services and prices, aiming to enhance seasonal peak shaving and emergency supply capabilities [6] Group 4: Regulatory Framework - The management measures consolidate various supervisory functions into a comprehensive regulatory framework, combining administrative, data, credit, and social oversight [8] - Legal responsibilities are significantly strengthened, introducing various punitive measures for non-compliance, thereby enhancing the enforceability of the regulations [8]

Core Viewpoint - The conference highlighted the achievements and future goals of China's energy industry, emphasizing the importance of energy security and the transition to a low-carbon economy during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans [1][2]. Group 1: Achievements in Energy Sector - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's energy consumption structure improved, and the supply capacity of renewable energy significantly increased [1]. - Over the past decade, the average cost of wind power projects has decreased by over 60%, and the cost of photovoltaic power projects has dropped by over 80%, largely due to China's innovation and manufacturing capabilities [1]. Group 2: Future Goals and Strategies - The primary task for the 15th Five-Year Plan is to ensure energy security, which includes increasing oil and gas exploration and development, aiming for an additional natural gas production of 20 billion cubic meters annually [2][3]. - The development and utilization of renewable energy must accelerate, with a target for non-fossil energy consumption to exceed 30% by 2035 and a total installed capacity of wind and solar power to reach over 360 million kilowatts [3]. - Enhancing energy efficiency is crucial, focusing on key technologies, promoting zero-carbon parks and factories, and advancing the digitalization of the energy sector [3].

Core Viewpoint - Algeria's foreign exchange reserves are a crucial indicator of its economic health, projected to exceed $81 billion by 2025, ranking second in Africa after Libya [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - Algeria's foreign exchange reserves are expected to surpass $81 billion by 2025, placing it second in Africa, behind Libya's approximately $92 billion [1] - The reserves are significantly higher than Morocco's $36.3 billion and Tunisia's $9.24 billion, which rank fifth and eighth respectively [1] - The stability of Algeria's reserves is primarily supported by oil and gas export revenues and recent government policies aimed at regulating imports and controlling foreign exchange expenditures [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - President Tebboune stated in September that the current level of foreign exchange reserves is "acceptable," sufficient to cover 1 year and 5 months to 1 year and a half of import needs [1] - South Africa ranks third in Africa with $62.4 billion in reserves, followed by Nigeria with $41.3 billion, and other countries like Egypt, Angola, Côte d'Ivoire, and Kenya [1] Group 3: Regional Economic Differences - The foreign exchange reserve levels in North African countries are significantly higher than those in many West and East African nations [1] - Variations in foreign reserves are closely linked to global energy prices, structural reform processes, and international market pressures [1] - These differences reflect the diverse economic structures across African regions and indicate the direct impact of import policies and commodity prices on national external assets [1]

Core Insights - The global energy market is experiencing volatility due to rapid industry developments, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuating supply-demand dynamics [3][4][10] Group 1: Market Outlook - Asian oil and gas producers will face challenges from oil price fluctuations primarily influenced by supply-demand factors, with WTI crude oil prices expected to remain below $60 per barrel for most of 2026 [3][10] - The MSCI AC Asia-Pacific Energy Index's price-to-book ratio is currently at 1.2, above its 10-year average of 1.1, indicating that investors have not fully accounted for the risks of declining oil prices [3][7] Group 2: Performance Analysis - From January 1 to October 31, the Asian oil and gas index has underperformed the broader market due to weakened demand expectations stemming from U.S. tariffs and OPEC+ production increases [4][5] - The MSCI AC Asia-Pacific Energy Index rose by 13.86% during the same period, while the broader MSCI Asia-Pacific Index increased by 25.83%, highlighting a widening performance gap since August [5] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December as part of a gradual exit from voluntary production cuts implemented in 2023, which may lead to a supply surplus in the oil market [10] - The uncertainty surrounding Russian supply could exacerbate supply disruptions and potentially lead to spikes in oil prices in 2026 [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Sichuan Provincial Government and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) signed a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance energy development and support national strategies [1] Group 1: Strategic Cooperation Agreement - The agreement aims to advance the construction of a national oil and gas production base in the Sichuan-Chongqing region, targeting a production capacity of 100 billion cubic meters [1] - Key areas of collaboration include oil and gas resource exploration and development, green and low-carbon transformation of the petrochemical industry, energy infrastructure construction, and the establishment of an oil and gas technology innovation platform [1] Group 2: Objectives and Goals - Both parties discussed improving the central-local mutual benefit cooperation mechanism and accelerating the construction of the national oil and gas production base [1] - The collaboration aims to enhance energy supply security, strengthen the energy industry chain, tackle key core technology challenges, and build a new energy system to better serve major national strategic implementations [1]

部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 LPG = FA 图H 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/21 LR G GARP 内院CFR华 CP预测合 山东烷基 丙烷CIF日本 纸面进口利润 日期 华南液化气 华东液化气 山东液化气 山东醚后碳四 主力基差 目似 化油 E 4440 2025/11/14 4460 4364 506 482 4630 7050 -78 ୧୧୧ 110 2025/11/17 4364 4440 4670 4390 559 202 485 7050 -20 - 2025/11/18 4335 4590 7030 4345 4380 567 523 493 -6 l 2025/11/19 4325 4370 -280 4345 ୧୧୧ 208 491 4590 7040 -49 4325 2025/11/20 4350 4360 498 4570 7040 -47 l - l 日度变化 -10 08 -10 -20 0 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, adopt a defensive allocation strategy as the equity market is weak. The inflow of funds into the price - rising chain has slowed, and the market is in an observation period for sector rotation, with risk preference declining [1][7]. - For stock index options, continue to hold covered strategies for defense. The market sentiment has stabilized, but there is no clear capital main - line yet [2][8]. - For treasury bond futures, the market divergence is large. Although the bond market has been weak recently, it is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias towards the end of the year due to potential broad - money policies and strong allocation demand [3][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Data**: IF, IH, IC, IM's current - month contract basis points are - 4.89, - 2.35, - 6.15, 3.19 respectively, with a change of - 6.30, - 2.93, - 7.93, 5.69 points compared to the previous period. Their current - month and next - month contract spreads are 18.2, 7.0, 61.8, 92.2 points respectively, with a change of 3.6, 1.0, - 11.2, - 1.6 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, IM changed by - 6521, - 2454, - 5507, 2119 hands [7]. - **Logic**: The equity market was weak on Wednesday. The All - A index fell 0.3%, with over 4000 stocks declining. Only the price - rising chain and banks were resilient. The inflow of funds into the price - rising chain has slowed, and the market is in a sector rotation observation period, so a short - term cautious allocation is recommended [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold IM + Dividend [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Data**: The trading volume of each option variety increased slightly by 1.08%, with liquidity rising for 4 consecutive trading days but the increase rate slowing. The sentiment index (PCR of open interest) recovered, and the implied volatility decreased by an average of 1.14% [2][8]. - **Logic**: The equity index was oscillating and differentiated, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.18%. Since there is no clear capital main - line, continue to hold covered strategies for defense [2][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Covered strategy [8]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Data**: The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, TL's current - quarter contracts are 66875, 54572, 28995, 100953 hands respectively, with a 1 - day change of 3202, 2656, - 5728, 11525 hands. Their open interests are 154751, 88573, 42295, 80575 hands respectively, with a 1 - day change of - 22730, - 12266, - 7951, - 16039 hands. Other data such as spreads and basis points are also provided [8]. - **Logic**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The bond market was weak but the decline was not large, mainly due to market divergence on the central bank's broad - money operations. Towards the end of the year, the bond market is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [3][8][9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: oscillating with an upward bias; Hedging strategy: pay attention to long - position substitution at high basis points; Basis strategy: pay attention to basis widening; Curve strategy: the curve may remain steep [9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - It includes data such as the Eurozone's CPI in October (both month - on - month and year - on - year), the US retail sales and CPI in October, and the US unemployment - related data from September to November [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - In October, the consumer market maintained a steady growth trend, with the total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 4.63 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 41.2 trillion yuan, a 4.3% increase [11]. - The Ministry of Finance has pre - allocated part of the central - fiscal subsidy funds for urban affordable housing projects in 2026 [11]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content [12]. - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not detailed in the provided content [16]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content [28].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market continued its downward trend, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.38%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 0.26%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreasing by 0.69% [2] - The total trading volume in the market was approximately 211.4 billion HKD, with short selling accounting for about 22.58% of the total trading volume over the past three days, indicating a relatively high level of short selling [2] - Net inflow from southbound funds decreased to approximately 6.6 billion HKD, with Xiaomi Group, Alibaba, and the Southern Hang Seng Tech ETF being the most actively traded stocks [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The resource sector showed resilience, with gold prices stabilizing around 4,100 USD per ounce, leading to a rebound in gold and non-ferrous metal stocks [3] - Oil and gas stocks maintained upward momentum due to OPEC+ members announcing a pause in production increases, alleviating concerns over supply surplus [3] - Conversely, the consumer and technology sectors generally performed poorly, with significant declines in new consumption concepts and electric vehicle stocks [4] Group 3: Company Analysis - Weisheng Holdings (3393.HK) - Weisheng Holdings has a broad overseas business network, with overseas revenue expected to reach 2.4 billion RMB in 2024, a fivefold increase since 2020, reflecting a CAGR of 58% [7] - The ADO business is entering a rapid growth phase, with overseas market revenue expected to accelerate, particularly in data center energy solutions [8] - The company has maintained a leading position in bidding for projects from the State Grid and Southern Grid, with a significant increase in bid amounts from 620 million RMB in 2020 to 1.04 billion RMB in 2024, representing a CAGR of 13.8% [9] Group 4: Financial Projections - The report initiates a "Buy" rating for Weisheng Holdings with a target price of 17.36 HKD, predicting net profits of 920 million, 1.21 billion, and 1.53 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10] - The estimated PE ratio for 2026 is 10.6 times, with a dividend yield of 4.7%, indicating potential for valuation improvement [10]