Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product R & D report focusing on cotton and cotton yarn, dated January 7, 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 15,200, up 245; CF05 at 15,035, up 180; CF09 at 15,225, up 185; CY01 at 20,250 (unchanged); CY05 at 20,880 (unchanged); CY09 at 20,695 (unchanged) [2] - CF01 trading volume was 10,135 hands, an increase of 672; CF05 was 618,089 hands, an increase of 223,930; CF09 was 73,247 hands, an increase of 40,596; CY01 was 32 hands (unchanged); CY05 was 61 hands (unchanged); CY09 was 1 hand (unchanged) [2] - CF01 open interest was 68,415, a decrease of 8,049; CF05 was 925,465, an increase of 9,611; CF09 was 95,727, an increase of 17,291; CY01 was 378 (unchanged); CY05 was 171 (unchanged); CY09 was 14 (unchanged) [2] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 15,784 yuan/ton, up 169; Cot A was 74.70 cents/pound; FCY IndexC33S was 21,059 yuan, up 101; Indian S - 6 was 55,800 (unchanged); polyester staple fiber was 7,450 yuan, up 70; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11,080 (unchanged); viscose staple fiber was 12,730 yuan (unchanged); viscose yarn R30S was 17,320 (unchanged) [2] Spread Market - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 165, up 65; 5 - 9 spread was - 190, down 5; 9 - 1 spread was 25, down 60. Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 630 (unchanged); 5 - 9 spread was 185 (unchanged); 9 - 1 spread was 445 (unchanged) [2] - Cross - product spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 5,050, down 245; CY05 - CF05 was 5,845, down 180; CY09 - CF09 was 5,470, down 185. Internal - external spreads: 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 2,900, up 116; sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread was 1,883, up 107; internal - external cotton yarn spread was 241, down 41 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On January 7, 2026, the Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1789 yuan/ton·km, unchanged from the previous day. Short - term price index is expected to be relatively stable [4] - U.S. upland cotton inspection volume was 259.9 tons, with 85.94% progress, a year - on - year decrease of 11%; Pima cotton inspection volume was 68,500 tons, with 83.3% progress, 22% slower year - on - year. Weekly deliverable ratio was 77.5%, quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.5%, 1.4 percentage points higher year - on - year [4] - As of January 3, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 31.2% complete, a 6.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, 0.1 percentage points faster year - on - year, and 0.3 percentage points slower than the three - year average [4] Trading Logic - The rumored reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 is being confirmed. Cotton sales progress is fast, and factors like improved Sino - U.S. relations and expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity support the cotton price. However, due to the rapid rise on Friday, there may be short - term correction risks [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: U.S. cotton is expected to trade in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish with short - term correction risks [6] - Arbitrage: Hold off on trading [6] - Options: Hold off on trading [8] Cotton Yarn Industry News - In the pure - cotton yarn market, trading was average, with traders and downstream weavers making purchases based on demand. Yarn prices continued to rise, especially for medium - and high - count yarns. Air - spun and low - count yarns lagged in price increases and had higher inventory pressure. Mainland textile mills' operating rates continued to decline, while Xinjiang mills' high operating rates supported cotton consumption. As January approaches the holiday, orders are scarce, and weavers are stocking up, with a high probability of early holidays if the market doesn't improve [8] - The pure - cotton grey fabric market remained weak, with most manufacturers cautious about post - holiday performance. Orders for the new year are few, and the overall trading atmosphere is thin. Weavers are eager to sell, with price increases subject to negotiation based on order volume. The market trend is weaker than last year [8] Group 4: Options Option Data - On November 24, 2025, for CF601C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13,585.00, the closing price was 183.00, up 71.0%, IV was 6.7%, Delta was 0.7924, Gamma was 0.0012, Vega was 8.9763, theoretical leverage was - 2.5396, and actual leverage was 58,823.8 [10] - For CF601P13000.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13,585.00, the closing price was 7.00, down 75.9%, IV was 11.4%, Delta was - 0.0470, Gamma was 0.0000, Vega was 3.0820, theoretical leverage was - 1.2967, and actual leverage was 91,213.6 [10] - For CF601P12400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13,585.00, the closing price was 2.00, down 83.3%, IV was 17.3%, Delta was - 0.0106, Gamma was 0.0001, Vega was 0.8840, theoretical leverage was - 0.5394, and actual leverage was 72,000.5 [10] Volatility Analysis - The 10 - day HV of cotton the previous day was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 6.7%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [10] Option Strategy - The previous day, the PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.7339, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.6421. Both call and put trading volumes decreased today. The option strategy is to hold off on trading [11][12] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes charts such as the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [14][17][21][22]

| VV V SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月07日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆一 | なな女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | | | 菜粕 | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 宏观流动性偏好的背景下,大宗商品贵金属有色金属等品种表现更为强势,后续关注对农产品的影响力度。国 产大豆近期基本面偏强的背景下,也受到宏观的提振,近期的大豆竞价拍卖表现出来了高溢价和高成交率。国 产大豆现货端收购价格也出现上调， ...

格隆汇1月7日｜吉隆坡 Iceberg X 的交易员 David Ng 表示，由于市场预期印度尼西亚可能调高出口税， 棕榈油期货收盘走高。Ng 指出，较高的关税将使马来西亚棕榈油更具价格优势，从而转化为更高的需 求。他补充道，豆油价格上涨也提振了市场情绪。Ng 认为棕榈油价格在每吨 3,950 林吉特处有支撑， 在每吨 4,250 林吉特处面临阻力。马来西亚衍生品交易所 10 月交付的合同价格上涨 45 林吉特，至每吨 4,035 林吉特。 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Meal Daily Report" and is dated January 7, 2026 [1] Group 2: Researcher Information - The researcher is Chen Jiezheng, with a futures practice certificate number of F3045719 and an investment consulting certificate number of Z0015458. The contact email is chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 3: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal, the 01 contract closed at 3171 with a gain of 21, the 05 contract at 2811 with a gain of 35, and the 09 contract at 2888 with a gain of 17. The spot basis in different regions showed various changes. For example, in Tianjin, it rose from 340 to 370 [3] - For rapeseed meal, the 01 contract closed at 2677 with a gain of 40, the 05 contract at 2419 with a gain of 29, and the 09 contract at 2465 with a gain of 28. The spot basis also changed in different regions, like in Nantong, it decreased from 110 to 81 [3] Monthly Spreads - For soybean meal, the 15 spread was 360 (down 14 from yesterday), the 59 spread was -77 (up 18), and the 91 spread was -283 (down 4). For rapeseed meal, the 15 spread was 258 (up 11), the 59 spread was -46 (up 1), and the 91 spread was -212 (down 12) [3] Cross - Variety Futures Spreads - The 01 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 494 (down from 513 yesterday), and the 09 spread was 423 (down from 434 yesterday). The 01 oil - meal ratio was 2.583 (down from 2.584 yesterday) [3] Spot Spreads - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 601 (up 25 from yesterday), the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was 270 (down 10), and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal was 841 (up 5) [3] Group 4: Market Review - The US soybean market continued to rise, possibly supported by recent good exports but with limited overall impact. The domestic soybean meal market also showed significant upward movement, with cost support and concerns about future supply. Rapeseed meal rose following the trend, with limited self - driven positive factors. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends [3] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The overall supply - demand of the US soybean market is still relatively loose, with obvious downward price pressure in the follow - up. South America's supply - side influence has increased recently. Brazil's new crop planting progress has accelerated but remains at a relatively low level compared to the historical average. Most institutions predict a bumper harvest for Brazil's new crop, and the export volume is expected to increase significantly, but it still depends on the actual yield. Brazil's old crop has shown good export and crushing performance, with obvious export growth. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and recent crushing and exports have increased significantly [4] Domestic Market - The domestic spot market is still in a state of relatively loose supply - demand. The oil mill operating rate remains high, the market supply is sufficient, and the提货 volume has increased, while the inventory remains at a high level. Market transactions have recently decreased, and the overall market demand has increased, but there are still uncertainties about future supply. As of January 2, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.7533 million tons, the operating rate was 48.23%, the soybean inventory was 7.1025 million tons (an increase of 0.5581 million tons compared to last week, a growth rate of 8.53%, and an increase of 1.158 million tons year - on - year, a growth rate of 19.48%), and the soybean meal inventory was 1.1702 million tons (an increase of 0.0026 million tons compared to last week, a growth rate of 0.22%, and an increase of 0.4866 million tons year - on - year, a growth rate of 71.18%). The domestic rapeseed meal demand has continued to weaken recently, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, the rapeseed supply remains at a low level, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory remains high, with overall supply pressure still existing [5] Group 6: Logic Analysis - The US soybean market showed a certain rebound after the downward pressure was fully reflected, but the demand support is limited. If the supply side remains at a high level, the overall pressure will still exist. Brazil's short - term weather conditions are good, and the harvest is expected to proceed smoothly, with the pressure of a bumper harvest likely to continue to be reflected. The overall supply - demand of the international soybean market is still relatively loose, and the price is expected to face certain pressure. The recent South American quotes are still firm, and the near - term supply may tighten, which has a certain supporting effect on the price. The domestic soybean arrivals will decrease in the follow - up, and the soybean meal supply may also decrease, providing support for the spot market and driving the recent market. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is still relatively loose, and the price pressure remains. The recent demand for rapeseed meal is still average, and it showed a downward trend due to the influence of supply - side changes. However, affected by the subsequent improvement of the soybean meal spot market, rapeseed meal also showed a follow - up rebound. As the soybean meal spot market is expected to be stronger in the follow - up, the spread between them is expected to narrow. The monthly spread of soybean meal showed a significant strengthening trend, but its sustainability is expected to be limited under the condition of loose future supply. The monthly spread of rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, with limited demand support, and the spread is still under pressure due to the previous upward performance [6] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to reduce long positions - Arbitrage: Narrow the MRM spread - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [7] Group 8: Soybean Pressing Profit - The report provides the pressing profit data of Brazilian soybeans from February to August 2026, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, soybean meal price, soybean oil price, and the changes in pressing profit compared to yesterday [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn market is weak, with inventory reductions but still high production, causing it to oscillate at the bottom. Import profit for foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in February is 2,137 yuan. The domestic corn spot market is relatively stable in the short - term, with attention on the seasonal selling pressure in Northeast China and downstream inventory building before the Spring Festival. The starch market is affected by corn prices and downstream stocking. Current starch prices are weak, and corporate profitability is declining [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - C2601 closed at 2,288, down 5 (-0.22%), with a trading volume of 1,778 (down 74.10%) and an open interest of 18,650 (up 1.49%). - C2605 closed at 2,253, up 1 (0.04%), with a trading volume of 136,894 (up 33.67%) and an open interest of 526,948 (up 1.82%). - C2509 closed at 2,280, up 3 (0.13%), with a trading volume of 6,526 (up 17.06%) and an open interest of 45,546 (up 2.57%). - CS2601 closed at 2,485, down 1 (-0.04%), with a trading volume of 1,023 (up 124.34%) and an open interest of 2,400 (down 25.51%). - CS2605 closed at 2,545, down 7 (-0.28%), with a trading volume of 10,474 (up 103.05%) and an open interest of 49,506 (up 13.62%). - CS2509 closed at 2,593, down 5 (-0.19%), with a trading volume of 549 (up 268.46%) and an open interest of 1,769 (up 4.86%) [2]. 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - **Corn**: Today's quotes in different regions range from 2,120 to 2,440 yuan. The price in Qinggang is 2,120 yuan (unchanged), in Songyuan Jiji is 2,180 yuan (down 10), etc. The basis varies from -160 to 160 yuan [2]. - **Starch**: Today's quotes in different regions range from 2,700 to 2,880 yuan, all unchanged. The basis varies from 155 to 335 yuan [2]. 3.1.3 Spreads - **Corn Inter - delivery**: The spread of C01 - C05 is 35 (down 6), C05 - C09 is -27 (down 2), and C09 - C01 is -8 (up 8). - **Starch Inter - delivery**: The spread of CS01 - CS05 is -60 (up 6), CS05 - CS09 is -48 (down 2), and CS09 - CS01 is 108 (down 4). - **Cross - variety**: The spread of CS09 - C09 is 313 (down 8), CS01 - C01 is 197 (up 4), and CS05 - C05 is 292 (down 8) [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn market is oscillating at the bottom. Import profit for foreign corn has increased. The spot price in the northern ports is stable, while the price in the Northeast corn - producing area is weak. The supply in North China has increased, and the price is weak. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The wheat price is stable, and the price difference between wheat and corn is large, giving corn a cost - performance advantage. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The short - term corn spot is relatively stable, with attention on the seasonal selling pressure in Northeast China and downstream inventory building before the Spring Festival [4][6]. 3.2.2 Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is weak. The starch price in Shandong is around 2,720 yuan, and the spot price in Northeast China is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has risen to 112.5 million tons, a monthly increase of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 25.1%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. By - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price and weak starch price, corporate profitability is declining. The 03 starch contract is oscillating at the bottom, and the corn price in North China may decline in January, with limited upside potential for the 03 starch contract in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 03 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Close the long position of 07 corn [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [10]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategy: Use a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [11]. 3.5 Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the closing price of corn at northern ports, the basis of corn 05 contract, the 5 - 9 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis of corn starch 05 contract, and the spread of corn starch 05 contract [15][16][17][19][21][22]

加贸易关系和放开澳菜籽商业采买的可能。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 菜籽系产业日报 2026-01-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9095 | -35 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2419 | 29 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | 14 | -38 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) | -46 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Soft Commodities** - **Sugar**: Global sugar is in a supply - surplus situation, but concerns about a decline in Guangxi sugar production in China have led to a slight recovery in domestic sugar prices. It's recommended to exit short positions in Zhengzhou sugar futures and wait and see [3]. - **Pulp**: The supply pressure of pulp is gradually easing, but the high inventory and weak paper mill profits limit the upward trend. The price is expected to run in a high - level range in the short term [3]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The spot price of double - offset paper is stable. The upward space of the futures price is limited due to the narrowing basis and weakening cost drive [4]. - **Cotton**: Globally and in the US, cotton supply is expected to be abundant, but in China, there are expectations of tight supply at the end of the year, a reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting, and support from substitutes. The price of the 05 contract is expected to move up [6]. - **Fresh Fruit and Nuts** - **Apple**: The 05 contract of apples is supported by low cold - storage inventory, poor fruit quality, and high acquisition prices. However, concerns about consumption limit the upward trend. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [7]. - **Jujube**: The supply of jujubes is gradually becoming more abundant, and the futures price has changed from a premium to a discount to the spot price. It's recommended to exit short positions below 9000 points and consider hedging strategies [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations | Variety | Reference Strategy | Main Logic | Support Range | Pressure Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | New - season output, good - fruit rate, and peak inventory are lower than before, but the lack of consumption growth restricts the upward trend. It may fluctuate strongly in the short - term within the range | 8800 - 8900 | 10000 - 10200 | | Jujube 2605 | Buy on dips in the short - term | The expectation of reduced production may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts | 8900 - 9000 | 9500 - 9800 | | Sugar 2605 | Go long with a light position and short - term | International sugar supply is sufficient, and the market is worried about a decline in China's sugar production this season, weakening short - seller confidence | 5000 - 5030 | 5300 - 5330 | | Pulp 2605 | Go long within the range | The potential delivery pressure increases as the futures price rises above the spot price. There is support for the downward movement | 5300 - 5400 | 5600 - 5800 | | Double - offset Paper 2605 | Wait and see for now | Raw material price fluctuations affect double - offset paper prices from the cost side, and the futures price may run within a range | 3900 - 4000 | 4200 - 4300 | | Cotton 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | The overseas market is at a low level, and the domestic market has positive expectations. There is strong long - term bullish sentiment, and the price is expected to move up | 13500 - 13600 | 15400 - 15500 | [17] Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamentals**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of December 25, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 7.021 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 106,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 857,800 tons [18]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Shandong and Shaanxi are stable. The overall shipment has slightly increased, and the prices in the sales areas are stable [18][19][20]. - **Jujube Market**: Before the New Year's Day, the inventory of 36 sample points decreased. The acquisition in Xinjiang is approaching the end, and the supply of off - grade products has increased significantly. The overall sales in the sales areas are stable [21]. - **Sugar Market**: As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production increased year - on - year. Thailand's sugar production decreased from January to December 27, 2025/26, and Guangdong's sugar production also decreased [24]. - **Pulp Market**: As of December 31, the pulp price was stable. Some companies raised the price of BHK, and the supply tightened [27]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: The inventory days increased, the social demand was weak, and the start - up rate increased slightly [28]. - **Cotton Market**: Egypt's cotton export contracts and shipments increased significantly, and Pakistan's new - season seed cotton listing volume decreased slightly year - on - year [29]. Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9614 | 67 | 0.70% | | Jujube 2605 | 8975 | 20 | 0.22% | | Sugar 2605 | 5259 | 2 | 0.04% | | Pulp 2605 | 5612 | 82 | 1.48% | | Cotton 2605 | 14855 | 200 | 1.36% | [30] - **Spot Market**: | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5340 | 10 | - 720 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5580 | 0 | - 950 | | Double - offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4450 | 0 | - 500 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15711 | 96 | 1037 | [36] Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [46][47][48][49][50][51][52]. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1026 | - 30 | 1313 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | 25 | - 45 | - 600 | Oscillate within a range | Wait and see | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 26 | 5 | - 44 | Oscillate | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 185 | 5 | - 15 | Oscillate weakly | Sell on rallies | [53] Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [58][59][60][61][63][64][65][66][68][69][71][73][75][77][78][80][81][82]. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 2105 | 3 | - 416 | | Sugar | 6005 | 0 | - 7024 | | Pulp | 131054 | 15478 | - 207984 | | Cotton | 6824 | 706 | 2818 | [82] Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [84][85][86][88][89][90][91][92][94][95][96].

农产品日报 | 2026-01-07 油厂开机上升，豆粕延续震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2776元/吨，较前日变动+22元/吨，幅度+0.80%；菜粕2605合约2390元/吨，较前 日变动+29元/吨，幅度+1.23%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3110元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差 M05+334，较前日变动-2；江苏地区豆粕现货3070元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差M05+294，较前日变动-2； 广东地区豆粕现货价格3110元/吨，较前日变动跌+40元/吨，现货基差M05+334，较前日变动+18。福建地区菜粕现 货价格2600元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM05+210，较前日变动-9。 近期市场资讯，1月5日，美国农业部公布的周度出口检验报告显示，截至2026年1月1日当周，美国大豆出口检验 量为98万吨，此前市场预估为75-115万吨，前一周修正后为77.3万吨，初值为75万吨。12月25日止当周，美国当前 市场年度大豆出口销售净增117.77万吨，较之前一周增加19%，较前四周均值减少20%。市场预估为净增70-180万 吨。 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉上涨 0.76%，报收 65.14 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 1.05%， 认为，近期市场情绪偏暖、预期偏强是近期行情驱动的主要因素之一，且未来政策 | 偏强震 | | | 报收 14855 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 25992 手至 91.59 万手。国际市场方面， | | | | 海外宏观扰动不断，美元指数仍在 98-99 区间震荡，美棉期价重心缓慢上移。国 | | | | 内市场方面，郑棉主力合约继续增仓上行，夜盘站上 15000 元/吨整数关口。我们 | | | | 层面仍有值得期待的事情。展望未来，在当前情绪下，短期郑棉仍有上行驱动，但 | 荡 | | | 高位或有一定分歧，中长期来看，棉价上方仍有一定空间。后续关注点，一是下游 | | | | 纺织企业春节前补库动作；二是明年一季度，宏观层面是否会降准降息，以及通常 | | | | 在 4 月 10 号左右公布的新一轮棉花目标价格补贴政策细则。 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2360 - 2420. It is affected by the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and awaits the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. With the spot demand in the off - season and low inventory, it will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply tightening and decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term exports and domestic supply [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit is being levied. The final ruling is still uncertain, depending on the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and the imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is in the off - season; there is still a small probability of a settlement in the final anti - dumping result of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading data**: From December 25 to January 6, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3114 - 3157, and the trading volume ranged from 8.59 - 34.87 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was between 2530 - 2560, with zero trading volume. The average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal varied between 574 - 611 [13]. - **Futures and spot prices**: From December 25 to January 6, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2605) fluctuated between 2352 - 2390, and the spot price in Fujian was between 2530 - 2560 [15]. - **Warehouse receipts**: From December 24 to January 6, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [17]. - **Market situation**: Rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell, with spot prices following the fluctuations. The spot premium remained at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract remained low [18][20]. - **Import and inventory**: Rapeseed imports increased slightly in December, and the import cost was affected by tariff expectations. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory remained low, and rapeseed meal inventory was also at a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remained at zero [23][25][27]. - **Aquatic product situation**: Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [35]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.