Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the improvement of the USDA August supply - demand report and the rising weather risk premium, the market sentiment is high. The CBOT soybean futures have risen continuously, supporting the domestic soybean meal market price. The increase in the cost of imported soybeans also provides strong support. However, the current abundant supply of imported soybeans, high operating rate of oil mills, and high inventory pressure of soybean meal may limit the increase in the soybean meal market price. It is expected that the price of the soybean meal m2601 contract will maintain a relatively strong oscillatory trend, mainly with interval adjustments [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On August 14, 2025, the price of the soybean meal m2601 contract first rose and then fell, closing at 3157 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous day. The trading volume for the day was 1,347,343 lots, and the open interest was 1,990,701 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The soybean meal futures contracts generally rose slightly throughout the day. The total open interest of the variety contracts was 4,655,321 lots, a decrease of 25,411 lots from the previous trading day [4]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Quotation**: On August 14, 2025, the spot quotations of soybean meal in some domestic regions declined slightly. For example, the price in Zhangjiagang was 2990 yuan, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin it was 3090 yuan, unchanged; in Rizhao it was 3010 yuan, down 10 yuan; and in Dongguan it was 2980 yuan, down 10 yuan [7][8]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of soybean meal warehouse receipts increased by 2,000 lots to 10,925 lots, with the increase mainly from Dongguan Fuyuan with 2,000 new lots [9]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: Last week (August 3 - August 9), Brazil exported 2.2402 million tons of soybeans and 284,000 tons of soybean meal. This week (August 10 - August 16), it plans to export 2.34 million tons of soybeans and 63,900 tons of soybean meal. The import cost of soybeans continued to rise, with US soybeans up 41 yuan/ton, reaching a 3 - month high; Brazilian soybeans up 19 yuan/ton, breaking a more than 1 - year high; and Argentine soybeans up 17 yuan/ton, hitting a 7 - month high [9]. - **Basis Data**: A basis trend chart is provided, but no specific data analysis is given in the text [10].

Group 1 - Chicago futures market saw an overall increase in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on the 15th, with corn rising to $4.05 per bushel, an increase of 8 cents or 2.01% [1] - Wheat December contract closed at $5.27 per bushel, up 2.5 cents or 0.48%, while soybean November contract reached $10.43 per bushel, gaining 14 cents or 1.36% [1] - The USDA's August crop report and July's high soybean crushing rates boosted the soybean market, with expectations of further price increases [1] Group 2 - NOPA members reported July soybean crushing volume at 195.7 million pounds, exceeding expectations by 4 million pounds and marking a year-on-year increase of 13 million pounds [1] - Total soybean oil inventory as of July 31 was 1.38 billion pounds, up 1.2 million pounds from June, with a year-on-year crushing volume growth of 4.7% [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **豆一**: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **豆粕**: ★☆★, with a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - **豆油**: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **标油**: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market operability is poor, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - **菜粕**: ★☆☆, being bullish, with a driving force for price increase but limited market operability [1] - **菜油**: ★☆☆, being bullish, with a driving force for price increase but limited market operability [1] - **玉米**: ★☆★, with a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - **生猪**: ★☆☆, being bearish, with a driving force for price decline but limited market operability [1] - **鸡蛋**: ★★☆, indicating a clear downward trend and the market is in the process of fermentation [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the agricultural product market is complex, with different products showing different price trends and investment opportunities. Some products are affected by supply - demand relationships, some by international trade policies, and others by weather and policy factors [2][3][6] Summary by Product Soybeans - **Domestic soybeans**: The short - term large number of auctions drags down the price. The price of domestic soybeans is relatively low in valuation, and short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties and policy guidance [2] - **U.S. soybeans**: The new - season soybeans have a reduced planting area but an increased yield per unit, and the ending inventory decreases year - on - year, which boosts the price. There is a risk of high temperature and low precipitation in some areas in the short term [2] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The rapeseed series main contracts continue to be weak, and the rapeseed meal position increases significantly. The market has strong expectations for importing Australian rapeseed. If the trade between China and Australia grows rapidly after the new Australian rapeseed is launched in October, the rapeseed series futures prices may be under short - term pressure. The rapeseed series maintains a medium - term bullish view, but the futures prices may be under short - term pressure [2][5] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Indonesia is negotiating with the U.S. on zero - tariff palm oil imports. The Indonesian government will crack down on illegal natural resource exploitation, and 5 million hectares of palm plantations are under review. The price difference between Malaysian 24 - degree palm oil and Argentine soybean oil has rapidly narrowed. The long - term biodiesel policy in the U.S. remains unchanged, but there is a risk of phased demand fluctuations. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of position changes on price trends [3] Corn - The Dalian corn futures return to the downward trend. The U.S. corn continues to decline, with a good growth rate. The domestic corn supply remains high without policy guidance and under the background of the decline in U.S. corn prices. Corn may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [6] Pigs - The spot price of pigs is stable but weak, and the futures price rebounds slightly. The supply of pigs is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and the spot price is expected to continue to decline. The government may provide support when the price drops to a certain range. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when the price rises [7] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is stable but strong, and the near - month futures price fluctuates at a low level. The trading logic of the egg futures market is still to reduce production capacity through price decline. Attention should be paid to the performance of the spot price, the game between peak - season demand and cold - storage egg release, and the progress of production capacity elimination [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bearish rating for the strategy [3][5] 2. Core View of the Report - The current growth of new - season US soybeans is good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, but there is no substantial progress in Sino - US policies, causing market concerns. In China, although the soybean supply is sufficient and the soybean meal inventory is rising, the increase in Brazilian premiums and the lack of policy progress support the soybean meal price. For corn, the market supply and demand situation is complex, with low market confidence and weak demand. In the short term, the fundamentals of both are unlikely to change significantly, and policies and Brazilian premiums will be important factors affecting prices [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3157 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.19%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2686 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton (-1.36%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2970 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2660 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - Brazilian Soybean Exports: It is estimated that the soybean export volume in August 2025 will be 880 million tons, a 10.3% increase from the same period last year. The export volume from August 10 - 16 was 234 million tons, and the estimated export volume from January to August 2025 will reach 8855 million tons [1] 3.1.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2281 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.09%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2648 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.11%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Russian Wheat Planting Area: The wheat planting area will decrease from 28.506 million hectares to 26.904 million hectares, including a decrease in winter wheat from 16.134 million hectares to 15.815 million hectares and a decrease in spring wheat from 12.372 million hectares to 11.089 million hectares [3] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The growth of new - season US soybeans is good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. However, there is no substantial progress in Sino - US policies, causing market concerns. In China, the soybean supply is sufficient, the soybean meal inventory is rising, but the increase in Brazilian premiums and import costs support the soybean meal price. Future focus should be on new - season US soybeans and policy changes [2] 3.2.2 Corn - In China, the remaining grain in the market is less than the same period last year, but market confidence is low, and traders are actively selling. The upcoming listing of spring corn in North China can supplement the supply. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and the demand is weak. Future focus should be on the output of new - season corn [4] 3.3 Strategy - The strategy for both soybean meal and corn is cautious and bearish [3][5]

Group 1 - The grain futures market in China experienced a mixed performance on August 15, with corn starch futures dropping nearly 1% [1] - As of the latest data, corn futures decreased by 0.77% to 2190.00 CNY/ton, while japonica rice futures slightly increased by 0.03% to 3613.00 CNY/ton [1] - Corn starch futures fell by 0.95%, settling at 2620.00 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - On August 15, the opening prices for japonica rice, corn, and corn starch were 3613.00 CNY, 2197.00 CNY, and 2645.00 CNY respectively [2] - The previous closing prices for these contracts were 3615.00 CNY for japonica rice, 2202.00 CNY for corn, and 2648.00 CNY for corn starch [2] - The last settlement prices were 3612.00 CNY for japonica rice, 2207.00 CNY for corn, and 2645.00 CNY for corn starch [2] Group 3 - As of August 14, corn starch futures had a total warehouse receipt of 7450 contracts, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - Corn futures saw an increase of 1388 contracts, bringing the total to 133480 contracts [3] - A basis phenomenon was observed in corn contracts, indicating a situation where the spot price (2320 CNY) exceeded the futures price (2207 CNY), resulting in a basis of 113 CNY and a basis rate of 4.87% [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil production is seasonally increasing, and although export data can offset some of the production increase, inventory is expected to rise by the end of August. Dalian palm oil futures are under pressure to weaken and may seek support in the 9000 - 9200 yuan range. CBOT soybeans are near a technical resistance level and may correct, affecting CBOT soybean oil. Domestic soybean oil inventory may decrease after peaking, and basis quotes will have limited short - term fluctuations [1]. Meal - The USDA monthly supply - demand report and anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed have provided short - term support, but after the short - term positive information fades, the market may face profit - taking. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and spot prices are under pressure. The bottom range of meal has shifted up, and short - term profit - taking is possible. Overall, the trend remains upward [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - Pig prices are supported by farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices and some secondary fattening. However, the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Group farms'出栏 is expected to recover in August, and large pigs from small farmers also need to be sold. The far - month 01 contract has stronger support, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [4][5]. Corn - The corn market has rebounded due to the impact of the anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed and the USDA August report, but its own fundamentals have not changed much. Supply will gradually ease, and the market sentiment is weak. Consumption is not significantly boosted, and the wheat price squeezes corn demand. The short - term rebound is limited, and there may be opportunities to short. In the long - term, the cost of new - season corn may decrease, and supply pressure may increase [8]. Sugar - ISMA's forecast of increased sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season has pressured the raw sugar price. Brazil's high - proportion sugar production has not led to a year - on - year increase in total sugar output. India and Thailand have full expectations of a good harvest. The raw sugar price is unlikely to break the previous low in the short - term, but the overall trend is bearish. Zheng sugar has rebounded but is under pressure from increased imports [12]. Cotton - The spot basis of cotton is temporarily firm, and the downstream industry has shown marginal improvement. However, downstream confidence is still insufficient, and the expected increase in new - season cotton production will bring long - term supply pressure. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, and long - term prices may face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [13]. Eggs - Egg prices have reached a phased low, which may stimulate downstream procurement. However, high inventory levels and the impact of cold - stored eggs will suppress price increases. The overall trend of egg futures is bearish [16][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Palm Oil**: On August 14, the spot price in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9380 yuan, the futures price (P2601) dropped 1.38% to 9294 yuan, and the basis increased 295.45%. Inventory is expected to rise [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 8840 yuan, the futures price (Y2601) was 8592 yuan, and the basis increased 20.97%. Factory inventory may decrease after peaking [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In Jiangsu, the spot price dropped 2.53% to 10000 yuan, the futures price (OI601) dropped 2.16% to 9852 yuan, and the basis decreased 22.51% [1]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price remained unchanged at 3090 yuan, the futures price (M2601) dropped 0.19% to 3157 yuan, and the basis increased 8.22%. The Brazilian 10 - month shipping schedule's import profit increased 680% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price dropped 2.26% to 2600 yuan, the futures price (RM2601) dropped 3.05% to 2606 yuan, and the basis increased 78.57%. The Canadian 11 - month shipping schedule's import profit increased 36.92% [2]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3960 yuan, the futures price of the main contract dropped 1.61% to 4041 yuan, and the basis increased 44.90% [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Spot Prices**: On August 15, the spot price in Shandong increased by 100 yuan to 13900 yuan, while prices in other regions had minor changes [4]. - **Other Indicators**: Sample point slaughter volume decreased 0.16%, and the weekly white - striped pork price decreased 0.25%. Piglet prices decreased 3.7%, and sow prices decreased 0.03% [5]. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2509 increased 0.09% to 2281 yuan, the basis increased 85.71%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased 20% [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2509 decreased 0.11% to 2648 yuan, the basis increased 5.08%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased 21.54% [8]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The futures price of sugar 2601 increased 0.04% to 5659 yuan, and the ICE raw sugar main contract dropped 1.49% to 16.58 cents [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning increased 0.17% to 5980 yuan, and the basis increased [12]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production increased 12.03% year - on - year, and sales increased 23.07%. Industrial inventory decreased 9.56% [12]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The futures price of cotton 2509 increased 0.33% to 13875 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread increased 6.67% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased 0.02% to 15060 yuan, and the basis decreased [13]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased 13.9%, and industrial inventory increased 1.8%. Cotton outbound shipping volume increased 22.6% [13]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The egg 09 contract dropped 2.62% to 3191 yuan, and the 9 - 10 spread decreased 97.83% [16]. - **Spot Market**: The egg产区 price remained unchanged at 3.12 yuan per catty, and the basis increased 53.95% [16]. - **Industry Indicators**: The egg - feed ratio decreased 7.2%, and the breeding profit decreased 111.23% [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have shown slight fluctuations, with a current price of 67.61 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.03% increase from the opening price [1] - On August 14, the opening price for cotton futures was 67.70 cents per pound, with a closing price of 67.69 cents per pound, indicating a decrease of 0.19% [2] - The highest price during the trading session on August 14 reached 68.00 cents per pound, while the lowest was 67.41 cents per pound [2] Group 2 - According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of August 8, the number of unpriced sell orders for U.S. cotton was 49,251 contracts, a decrease of 977 contracts from the previous period [2] - The number of unpriced buy orders increased by 3,788 contracts to 108,917 contracts [2] - As of August 14, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 8,195 contracts, a decrease of 92 contracts from the previous trading day [2] Group 3 - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that for the week ending August 7, net sales of U.S. upland cotton for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 242,000 bales, compared to -17,000 bales the previous week [2] - For the 2026/2027 marketing year, net sales were 1,000 bales, down from 109,000 bales the previous week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The short - term 01 contract may continue to rise based on the 8400 position. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 01 contract, consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations, with support at 8230 - 8300 yuan/ton and pressure at 8800 - 9000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Under the uncertain Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade policy, the price once rose significantly, but the high inventory and alternative imports have weakened market concerns. It shows a wide - range shock, with support at 9500 - 9580 and pressure at 10333 - 10343 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The July Malaysian palm oil ending inventory was lower than expected, and the Indonesian inventory is low. The August production data is poor, and the export demand in early August is good. It is recommended to reduce long positions, with support at 9050 - 9074 and pressure at 9900 - 9990 [2]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.2**: The market is digesting the positive impact of the August USDA report. The Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations are still tense. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 01 contract of soybean meal, with support at 2950 - 2980 yuan/ton and pressure at 3200 - 3250 yuan/ton. The 09 contract of soybean No.2 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with support at 3640 - 3670 and pressure at 3950 - 4000 [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The 09 contract shows a wide - range shock, with support at 2600 - 2617 and pressure at 2800 - 2823. The 01 contract is affected by the expected reduction of Canadian rapeseed imports [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The USDA report has a negative impact on the external market. The domestic market is affected by imported corn and relevant policies. It is recommended to shift short positions to far - month contracts [5]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price continues to fall due to the increasing supply of new soybeans. It is recommended to exit short positions in the main contract and wait and see [6]. - **Peanut**: The inventory of the producing areas is low, and the import is affected. The new - season planting area has increased. The 10 - contract may rebound in the short - term, and it is recommended to short the 11 and 01 contracts on rallies [6][7]. - **Pig**: The spot price has adjusted in August, and the slaughter volume has increased. It is recommended to shift long positions of the 09 contract to the 2511 contract and wait for an opportunity to buy the 2605 contract [7]. - **Egg**: The 09 contract price has continued to decline, and the spot price has stabilized in some areas. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy the 10 - contract at low prices [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - Different varieties in the feed, breeding, and oil industries have different market logics, including supply - demand relationships, price support and pressure levels, and corresponding trading strategies. For example, the 01 contract of soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at low prices; the 09 contract of corn is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to shift short positions to far - month contracts [10]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - For different varieties' inter - period and inter - variety arbitrage, different reference strategies are provided, such as observing the 9 - 1 spread of soybean No.1, conducting positive spread operations for the 11 - 1 spread of soybean meal, and observing the 09 bean - meal to rapeseed - meal spread [11][12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors are presented, which can help investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: The import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping periods are provided, including CBOT prices, CNF prices, and import - duty - paid prices [14][15]. - **Weekly Data**: The inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, such as soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, are presented, reflecting the supply - demand situation of the industry [16]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: The import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [16]. - **Weekly Data**: The consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises are presented [17]. 3.2.3 Breeding - The daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs are provided, including spot prices, price changes, production and sales data, and inventory data, which can help understand the market situation of the breeding industry [18][19][20][21][22]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - A large number of charts are provided to track the fundamentals of the breeding, oilseeds and oils, and feed sectors, including price trends, inventory changes, production data, and spread changes, which can help investors comprehensively understand the market situation [24][34][52]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situations of Soybean Meal, Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The historical volatilities of various varieties and the trading and holding volume data of corn options are presented, which can help investors understand the option market situation [71]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse - Receipt Situations of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The warehouse - receipt data of various varieties are presented, which can help investors understand the market supply situation [74].

2025 年 08 月 15 日 豆粕：美豆冲高回落，连粕调整震荡 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 4041 | -46（-1.13%） | 4049 | -22 （-0.54%） | | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3157 | +12 （+0.38%） | 3140 | -24（-0.76%） | | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1031 | -11 （-1.06%） | | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 295.6 | -1.6（-0.54%） | n a | | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | | 3080～3120， M2509+30/+60， 持平； | 较昨持平至+20； 9月M2509+0/+10/+40， | 8月25日前提货M2509-60， 持平； | 持平； 8-9月 10月 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report mainly analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including soybeans/meal, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the fundamentals and market trends of each product. 3. Summary by Category Soybeans/Meal - **Important Information**: On Thursday, the USDA's reduction of the planting area continued to be bullish, and the cost of soybean imports increased. The domestic soybean meal spot basis was stable, with sales weak after a rapid price increase and good提货. The downstream inventory days increased slightly to 8.37 days. Last week, 2177500 tons of soybeans were crushed in China, and this week, 2369500 tons are expected to be crushed. The rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be favorable in the next two weeks. The USDA significantly reduced the planting area, with the US soybean production decreasing by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cost of soybean imports is expected to maintain a stable and slightly rising trend. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline in September. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing profit, supply pressure, Sino - US tariff progress, and new supply - side drivers [4]. Oils - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month. In the first half of 2025, Indonesia distributed about 6.8 million kiloliters of B40 biodiesel. In July, India's palm oil imports decreased, while soybean oil imports increased. The total vegetable oil imports increased slightly, and the inventory at the end of July increased by 150000 tons month - on - month but decreased by 1.2 million tons year - on - year. On Thursday, domestic oils prices fell, affected by factors such as the postponement of Indonesia's B50 policy and rumors of poor palm oil exports from Indonesia [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fundamentals such as the US biodiesel policy draft, limited palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia, low vegetable oil inventories in India and Southeast Asia, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the oil price center. Palm oil prices are expected to be supported in the 7 - 9 month period, and there may be an upward trend in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy. However, the upside is limited by factors such as annual - level oil production increase expectations, high near - term palm oil production, undetermined RVO rules, and macro and demand - side adjustments [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated slightly, with the January contract closing at 5659 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in various regions increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. India plans to transfer 4 - 5 million tons of sugar for ethanol production in the new crushing season starting in October [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the second half of the year, the increasing import supply will squeeze the sales space of domestic sugar. The spot import profit outside the quota is at a five - year high, and the futures price is over - valued. With the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated, with the January contract closing at 14155 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton increased by 15 yuan/ton. According to the USDA's August supply - demand report, the global cotton production decreased by 390000 tons, with the US production decreasing by 300000 tons and China's increasing by 110000 tons. Global consumption decreased by 30000 tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 740000 tons [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The USDA report was more bullish than expected, driving up cotton prices at home and abroad. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures between China and the US for 90 days is also positive for domestic cotton prices. However, the downstream consumption is average, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down. In the short term, cotton prices may continue to fluctuate at a high level [15]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable, with a few areas slightly adjusted. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 3.03 yuan/jin. The supply was stable with a slight shortage in some areas, and the downstream digestion speed was generally average. Traders were cautious and mostly in a wait - and - see attitude [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply of eggs is large due to the continuous increase in newly - laid hens and limited culling of old hens. The egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected, and the futures price has a premium. In the short term, the futures price may fluctuate, and in the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [18]. Pigs - **Important Information**: The domestic pig prices showed mixed trends yesterday, with the average price in Henan increasing by 0.05 yuan to 13.86 yuan/kg and that in Sichuan remaining unchanged at 13.47 yuan/kg. The market sales were stable, and there was limited room for price increases by breeding groups. Some areas showed resistance to price cuts [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The continuous decline in the spot price is in contrast to the futures price. The release of current inventory helps to relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters, and the high fat - to - standard pig price difference provides room for future stocking. It is recommended to buy on dips for medium - and long - term contracts, but do not chase the price too high. For far - month contracts, pay attention to the opportunity of inter - month reverse spreads [21].