Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides weekly market analysis and investment strategies for various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, lead, tin, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate, highlighting the supply - demand situation, price trends, and potential investment opportunities and risks in each metal market [1][2][5][6][7][9][12][14] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, LME copper cancelled warrants were out of storage, and the overall LME copper inventory dropped below 100,000 tons for the first time this year. The LME cash - 3m spread continued to rise, but the 3m futures price did not follow the squeeze - up. The report is concerned about three possible fundamental changes in the third quarter: the S232 investigation rumor may land in July; after the investigation, the US copper inventory may flow back globally; and there are expectations of weakening in some sectors [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and the import of aluminum ingots from January to May provided an increment. The demand in June is expected to weaken seasonally, with the export of aluminum products remaining stable and the photovoltaic sector declining. There is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory reduction is gentle from June to July. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1] Zinc - This week, the zinc price fluctuated widely. The supply side saw an increase in smelting output in June, and the processing fee of the ore end is expected to increase. The domestic demand is marginally weakening, while overseas demand in Europe is weak. The domestic social inventory is oscillating, and the premium is continuously declining. The inventory accumulation acceleration inflection point is expected to appear at the end of June. The strategy is to maintain a short - allocation idea, hold long - short domestic - foreign arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities [2][3] Nickel - The supply side has a high - level production of pure nickel, and the import of nickel beans increased in May. The demand is weak, and the LME premium strengthened slightly. The overseas nickel plate inventory is maintained, and the domestic inventory decreased slightly. After the rumor of the Philippine ban on raw ore exports was abolished, the concern about the ore end disturbance was alleviated. Attention can be continued to be paid to the opportunity of the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5] Stainless Steel - Since late May, some steel mills have been passively reducing production. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron are maintained. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has slightly increased, and some exchange warehouse receipts have expired. The fundamentals are generally weak, and the spot pressure increases after the demand fades. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6] Lead - This week, the lead price rebounded from a low level. The supply side has issues such as weak scrap battery recycling, tight waste battery supply, and environmental inspections. The demand side has high battery inventory, and the consumption is weak in the off - season. The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,100 next week, with supply expected to be flat and demand weak in June [7] Tin - This week, the tin price fluctuated widely. The supply side has issues such as the need for negotiation on the short - term resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, low processing fees at the ore end, and production reduction in some domestic areas. The demand side has limited elasticity in solder, and the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline. The short - term supply and demand are expected to be weak, and there is strong support at the bottom. Long - position allocation can be cautiously held in the short term, and attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [9] Industrial Silicon - This week, the overall market start - up increased slightly. The basis strengthened rapidly, and the spot price was strong due to the stimulation of downstream speculative and replenishment sentiment. However, as the upstream resumption of production accelerates, the spot price is expected to be under pressure. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to operate at the bottom anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large enterprises [12] Lithium Carbonate - This week, the lithium carbonate price declined. The downstream demand is weak, and the supply elasticity is high. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the medium - long term. In the short term, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory next week, which will put upward pressure on the price [14]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 沪铜 今日铜价偏弱震荡，午后冲高回落。宏观层面，中东局势紧张， 但整体并未对国内的风险偏好造成较大影响，黄金和原油均高开低 走。产业层面，23 日 Mysteel 电解铜社库为 13.19 万吨，较上去去 库 1.05 万吨。上周铜价下挫至前期价格中枢 7.8 万一线，产业补库 意愿上升，7-8 月差也有所走强。此外，近期海外伦铜升水明显走 强，这说明了海外电解铜现货紧张。在中东局势不升级的情况下， 预计铜价持续企稳回升。 沪铝 今日早盘铝价冲高回落，日内延续推升。产业层面，上周 7-8 月 差持续走弱，这很大程度上说 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 6 月 23 日 铜铝周报 中东局势紧张，市场风险偏好下降 核心观点 铜：市场风险偏好下降，铜价承压，关注前期价格中枢支撑 铝：国内宏观回暖，铝价延续强势 上周铝价冲高回落，在有色板块中表现强势。我们认为国内宏观 氛围回暖很大程度上推升了铝价。铝价受国际宏观影响相对较小，而 国内宏观氛围较好，产业需求也较好，电解铝库存持续去化使其维持 强势运行。随着铝价上行，月差回落，产业推动意愿下降。关注 10 日均线支撑。此外，铸造铝合金上市交易，短期铝的资金关注度上 市。目前主力期价已突破 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate and rise in the short - term, with the Shanghai copper main contract running in the range of 77,500 - 79,600 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 dollars/ton [2]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward trend in the short - term, with the domestic main contract running in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2,480 - 2,620 dollars/ton [4]. - Lead prices are expected to remain weak due to weak downstream consumption [6]. - Zinc prices have a large downward risk, but the start time of the market is uncertain [7]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31,000 - 33,000 dollars/ton in the LME market [9]. - Nickel prices may fall, and it is advisable to short at high prices, with the short - term Shanghai nickel main contract running in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices may face selling pressure and need to be vigilant against weakening risks, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange main contract running in the range of 58,000 - 59,600 yuan/ton [12]. - Alumina prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, and it is recommended to short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 running in the range of 2,750 - 3,100 yuan/ton [15]. - The subsequent trend of the stainless - steel market depends on whether the downstream demand can start substantial restocking [17]. Summary by Metals Copper - Last week, LME copper rose slightly by 0.13% to 9,660 dollars/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,380 yuan/ton [2]. - Three major exchanges' inventories decreased by 10,000 tons, with SHFE inventory down 1,000 tons to 100,000 tons, LME inventory down 15,000 tons to 99,000 tons, and COMEX inventory up 7,000 tons to 183,000 tons [2]. - Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 4,000 tons, and copper spot imports had a large loss [2]. - LME cash/3M premium widened to 275 dollars/ton, and domestic basis quotes rose after the contract change [2]. - The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed to 920 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises declined [2]. - The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, and demand improved slightly [2]. Aluminum - Last week, LME aluminum rose 2.34% to 2,561 dollars/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract rose 0.12% [4]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline, with social inventory at 449,000 tons (down 11,000 tons week - on - week) and bonded area inventory at 114,000 tons (down 5,000 tons week - on - week) [4]. - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 343,000 tons, and Cash/3M turned to a premium [4]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production continued to rise slightly, and aluminum plant inventory declined slightly [4]. - The operating rate of aluminum products fluctuated and declined, with some products' operating rates falling and others remaining stable [4]. Lead - 3S fell 10 dollars to 1,982 dollars/ton, and the total position was 153,500 lots [6]. - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,725 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 25 yuan/ton [6]. - Domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 51,200 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 287,400 tons [6]. - The export growth rate of lead - acid batteries declined significantly, and downstream consumption remained weak [6]. - The profit of primary lead smelting increased, and the operating rate rose to a historical high of about 70%, while the profit of secondary lead remained low [6]. Zinc - On Friday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.06% to 21,678 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 259,300 lots [7]. - LME zinc 3S rose 8 dollars to 2,625 dollars/ton, and the total position was 206,400 lots [7]. - SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,030 yuan/ton, and the basis in different regions varied [7]. - SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 8,700 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 79,600 tons [7]. - LME zinc ingot inventory was 127,500 tons, and the cancelled warrant was 33,500 tons [7]. - The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, but the increase in social inventory is not obvious [7]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar was tight, and domestic tin ore imports in June were expected to decrease by 500 - 1,000 tons [8]. - The raw material inventory of smelters in main production areas was generally less than 30 days, and some enterprises carried out maintenance or production cuts [8]. - Terminal enterprises entered the seasonal off - season, and orders for consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and photovoltaic declined [8]. - After tin prices rose to around 260,000 yuan/ton, downstream procurement willingness weakened [9]. - As of June 20, the social inventory of tin ingots in major markets decreased by 42 tons to 8,905 tons [9]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices were weak. The monthly output of refined nickel remained high [10]. - Spot demand was weak, and market trading was light [10]. - The visible inventory of domestic + LME increased by 6,165 tons to 241,000 tons [10]. - The supply of nickel ore was tight in the short - term due to the rainy season, but it was expected to ease after the rainy season [10]. - The price of nickel iron was weak in June, and some production lines switched to producing nickel matte [10]. Lithium Carbonate - On Friday, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 59,777 yuan, down 0.31% from the previous trading day and 1.09% for the week [12]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.17% [12]. - The LC2509 contract closed at 58,900 yuan, down 1.93% from the previous day and 1.51% for the week [12]. - The supply clearance was slow, and domestic lithium salt production returned to a high level [12]. - Downstream entered the traditional mid - year off - season, and the marginal increase in demand declined [12]. Alumina - On June 20, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.31% to 2,883 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading decreased by 12,000 lots to 435,000 lots [14]. - Spot prices in some regions decreased, and the Shandong spot price was at a premium to the 07 contract [15]. - The MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at 367 dollars/ton, and the import window was closed [15]. - The futures warehouse receipt decreased by 6,300 tons to 42,900 tons [15]. - The price of bauxite in Guinea and Australia remained stable [15]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,505 yuan/ton, down 0.56% for the day, and the unilateral position increased by 5,358 lots to 279,900 lots [17]. - Spot prices in some markets decreased, and the futures inventory decreased by 780 tons to 114,089 tons [17]. - Social inventory increased to 1,157,400 tons, with 300 - series inventory at 692,100 tons (up 0.89% month - on - month) [17]. - The inventory of Qing Shan resources was high, suppressing steel prices, and downstream users were in a wait - and - see state [17]. - The industry faced cost pressure, and steel mills, agents, and traders were in a loss - making state [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Zinc - The zinc market is in a long - term supply - side easing cycle. If the mine - end growth rate is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In a pessimistic scenario, after the "rush to export", if the tariff policy leads to insufficient terminal consumption resilience, the center of zinc prices may move down. In the long - term, a short - selling approach is recommended, focusing on the TC growth rate and marginal changes in downstream demand. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21000 - 21500 [2]. Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices do not have a clear and smooth trend. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits the decline of copper prices, while the weak macro - expectation restricts the upside space. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate. The "rush to export" demand has advanced subsequent demand, and the real demand side may face pressure in Q3. The US copper import tariff policy is a major uncertain variable. The main contract is expected to move between 77000 - 79500 [5]. Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, and the subsequent demand is expected to be weak. Considering the pessimistic demand expectation, pay attention to the supply - side recovery rhythm. A short - selling approach is recommended at 260,000 - 265,000 based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [7]. Nickel - The nickel market is under continuous pressure from industrial overcapacity and weak consumption. In the short term, the fundamentals change little, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in a range. The main contract is expected to move between 118000 - 124000. Pay attention to the short - term disturbances from news [9]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a weak state. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the overall demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. In the short term, the fundamentals are still under pressure. Pay attention to the steel mill's production - cut rhythm. The main contract is expected to move between 12400 - 13000 [12]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term fundamentals are expected to remain relatively loose. The medium - term support is around the cash cost of 2700. For electrolytic aluminum, the LME inventory decline and low domestic inventory support aluminum prices, with the support level around 20000. However, there is still a possibility of adjustment under the conditions of LME warehousing, domestic inventory accumulation, and weakening demand [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still under pressure. In June, there may be an oversupply situation. The market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main contract expected to move between 56000 - 62000. Pay attention to the upstream dynamics [15][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.18% to 22030 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton. The import loss was - 585 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.32 [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%; imports were 2.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.40%; exports were 0.25 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 75.76%. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide were 58.60%, 55.12%, and 59.00% respectively. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 3.24% to 7.96 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.60% to 12.7 million tons [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.36% to 78400 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton. The import loss was - 1206 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.06 [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%; imports were 25.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23%. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production was 75.82%, and that of recycled copper rod production was 29.03%. The domestic social inventory increased by 0.76% to 14.59 million tons, the bonded - area inventory increased by 7.71% to 6.43 million tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 1.11% to 10.08 million tons, the LME inventory decreased by 3.99% to 9.92 million tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.78% to 19.99 million tons [5]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.42% to 263300 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 452.13% to 80.99 US dollars/ton. The import loss was - 10123 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.12 [7]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, tin ore imports were 13449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.39%; SMM refined tin production was 14840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37%; refined tin imports were 2076 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.04%; exports were 1770 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. The SMM refined tin average operating rate was 61.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38% [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.25% to 120625 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 was - 193 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was - 2926 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.92 [9]. - **Cost and New - Energy Material Prices**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel decreased by 4.16% to 120887 yuan/ton. The battery - grade nickel sulfate average price decreased by 0.67% to 27400 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: In May, China's refined nickel production was 35350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%; imports were 8832 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.18%. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.30% to 25693 tons, the social inventory increased by 0.02% to 39383 tons, the LME inventory increased by 0.76% to 205140 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 0.44% to 699972 tons [9]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12700 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.78% to 12700 yuan/ton. The basis difference increased by 23.73% to 365 yuan/ton [12]. - **Raw - Material Prices**: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) remained unchanged at 60 US dollars/wet ton, and the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.32% to 921 yuan/nickel point [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 179.12 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.64% to 53.42 million tons, and the 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.83% to 33.02 million tons [12]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.24% to 20720 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 180 yuan/ton. The average price of alumina in Shandong decreased by 0.79% to 3750 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.66%; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.41%. The operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, etc. showed different degrees of change. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 2.39% to 44.90 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.59% to 34.5 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.08% to 60400 yuan/ton. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) increased by 447.37% to 1040 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, lithium carbonate production was 72080 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%; demand was 83960 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.83%. The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1.49% to 97637 tons [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given documents. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the report acknowledges the short - term support of structural squeezes on absolute prices but focuses on three potential fundamental changes in the third quarter, including the impact of the S232 investigation, the return of US copper inventory, and the weakening in some sectors [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are decent, and attention should be paid to demand. In a low - inventory situation, pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - For zinc, the idea of short - allocation remains unchanged, and short on rebounds. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be held, and inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities should be noted [2][3]. - For nickel, continue to focus on the opportunity of the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are generally weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [5]. - For lead, it is expected to oscillate between 16700 - 17100 next week, with supply expected to be flat and demand weak in June [6]. - For tin, in the short term, long - allocation can be held cautiously, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [8]. - For industrial silicon, the spot price is expected to be under pressure, and in the long - term, it will run at the bottom anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [10]. - For lithium carbonate, in the medium - long term, the price will oscillate weakly. In the short term, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory next week, pressuring the price [12]. Summaries by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the LME copper inventory decreased by 4125 tons to 99200 tons, and the注销仓单 decreased by 4300 tons to 44800 tons. The LME cash - 3m spread continued to rise, breaking through $200 [1]. - **Weekly Outlook**: Recognize short - term support from structural squeezes but focus on potential third - quarter changes such as the S232 investigation, US copper inventory return, and weakening in some sectors [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From June 16 - 20, 2025, domestic aluminum prices decreased by about 50 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2100 tons to 342850 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increased slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in June, and there is still a supply - demand gap. 6 - 7 months of gentle de - stocking [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. From June 16 - 20, 2025, domestic zinc social inventory remained at 7.09 million tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 1250 tons to 126225 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased by about 20000 tons in June compared to May, and the monthly average of ore processing fees is expected to increase by 150 yuan/ton. Domestic demand weakened marginally, and overseas demand in Europe is weak [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - allocation, hold internal - external positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month reverse arbitrage [2][3]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained at $60, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 1542 tons to 205140 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Pure nickel production remained high, nickel bean imports increased in May, and overall demand is weak [4]. - **Opportunity**: Continue to focus on the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil decreased by 100 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Situation**: Some steel mills cut production passively since late May, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly [5]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: This week, lead prices rebounded from a low level. From June 16 - 20, 2025, the LME lead inventory decreased by 3350 tons to 284075 tons [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to be flat in June, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate between 16700 - 17100 next week [6]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. From June 16 - 20, 2025, the LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons to 2175 tons [7][8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is affected by the uncertain resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, and demand from the solder and terminal electronics and photovoltaic sectors is weak [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold long - allocation cautiously in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the basis of different grades increased by 80, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 556 [10]. - **Market Situation**: The overall market start - up increased slightly. The basis strengthened rapidly, and the spot price was strong. It is expected to be under pressure later [10]. - **Long - term Trend**: In the long - term, it will run at the bottom anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the SMM electric carbon and industrial carbon prices decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2164 [12]. - **Market Situation**: The price decreased this week, with overall inventory accumulation. In the short term, demand is weak, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory next week [12]. - **Long - term Trend**: In the medium - long term, the price will oscillate weakly if the operating rate of leading enterprises does not decline significantly [12].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement discusses Guangdong Xianglu Tungsten Industry Co., Ltd.'s plan to issue A-shares to specific investors, addressing the potential dilution of immediate returns and outlining measures to compensate for this dilution [1][2]. Financial Impact Analysis - The issuance will increase the total share capital from 278,617,235 shares to a maximum of 425,324,148 shares [2][3]. - Under three scenarios for net profit in 2025 compared to 2024, the diluted earnings per share (EPS) and return on equity (ROE) are projected as follows: - Scenario 1: Net profit remains the same as 2024 - Basic EPS: -0.32 to -0.29 [3] - Diluted EPS: -0.32 to -0.29 [3] - ROE: -11.49% to -9.73% [3] - Scenario 2: Net profit increases by 10% - Basic EPS: -0.32 to -0.26 [3] - Diluted EPS: -0.32 to -0.26 [3] - ROE: -11.49% to -8.71% [3] - Scenario 3: Net profit increases by 20% - Basic EPS: -0.32 to -0.23 [3] - Diluted EPS: -0.32 to -0.23 [3] - ROE: -11.49% to -7.71% [3] Necessity and Reasonableness of the Issuance - The issuance aligns with national industrial policies and the company's strategic development, enhancing core competitiveness and alleviating operational funding pressures [4][5]. - The projects funded by the issuance, including a production project for ultra-fine tungsten alloy wire, are closely related to the company's main business [5][7]. Measures to Compensate for Dilution - The company plans to enhance operational management and internal controls to improve profitability [8]. - Accelerating the progress of fundraising projects is a priority to boost future earnings and mitigate dilution risks [8]. - Strict management of raised funds will be implemented to ensure compliance and effective use [8]. - The company will maintain a robust profit distribution policy to protect shareholder interests [8]. Commitments from Management - The company's directors and senior management have committed to fulfilling the measures to compensate for the dilution of immediate returns [9][10]. - The commitments include adherence to legal regulations and accountability for any losses incurred due to non-compliance [10]. Approval Process - The measures related to the issuance and compensation for dilution have been approved through multiple board and shareholder meetings [11].

Group 1 - The company will hold its 2024 Annual General Meeting on June 25, 2025, at 15:00 in Baiyin City, Gansu Province [6][7][10] - Shareholders must register for the meeting and provide necessary identification documents [1][2][3] - Voting will be conducted through a combination of on-site and online methods, with specific time frames for online voting [6][10][11] Group 2 - The company reported a significant increase in production for various metals in 2024, with copper, lead, and zinc output reaching 770,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.83% [9][10] - Gold production was reported at 17,470 kilograms, showing a remarkable growth of 99.45%, while silver production reached 544 tons, up 72.31% [10][11] - The total industrial output value for 2024 was 56.086 billion yuan, reflecting a 39.35% increase compared to the previous year [10][11] Group 3 - The company aims to achieve a total industrial output value of 62.1 billion yuan in 2025, with projected increases in production for copper, gold, and silver [25][26] - The planned production for copper, lead, and zinc is set at 800,000 tons, with gold at 18,000 kilograms and silver at 550 tons, indicating growth targets of 3.82%, 16%, and 1.09% respectively [25][26] - The company is focused on enhancing its operational efficiency and expanding its market presence through strategic investments and project implementations [10][28] Group 4 - The company is committed to high-quality development, aligning its strategies with national and provincial policies while focusing on innovation and sustainable practices [26][29] - It aims to optimize its industrial structure and enhance its technological capabilities to support the transition to a low-carbon economy [29][30] - The company plans to strengthen its supply chain security and resource acquisition strategies to ensure stable production and growth [12][27]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏弱，下跌 0.32%至 9619.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.27%至 | | | | 78280 元/吨；国内现货进口仍维系较大亏损。宏观方面，美联储在 6 月议息会议上维 | | | | 持利率不变后，特朗普再度喊话美联储要求其降息。关税谈判方面，欧盟正寻求与美 | | | | 国达成英国式贸易协议。中东局势仍是短期焦点，美方有意介入伊以冲突，特朗普已 | | | | 批准攻击计划但暂缓执行，各方也在呼吁伊以停止冲突，局势已在逐步升温。库存方 | | | 铜 | 面，LME 库存下降 4025 吨至 103325 吨；Comex 库存增加 1400 吨至 18.14 万吨； | | | | SMM 周四统计全国主流地区铜库存较周一下降 0.18 万吨至 14.59 万吨，较上周四上 | | | | 升 0.11 万吨。需求方面，淡季来临下，下游消费转弱。伊以冲突升温后铜价表现不 | | | | 佳，佐证投资者相比供给，更 ...

2025/06/16 -681.41 -1161.78 140 -25 130225 58075 2025/06/17 -797.78 -1366.18 140 -28 128875 58975 2025/06/18 -657.73 -1266.71 140 -30 128250 33150 2025/06/19 -583.20 -1068.47 140 -27 127475 33475 变化 74.53 198.24 0 3 -775 325 本周锌价震荡下跌，受累库预期及宏观扰动影响价格中枢下移。供应端，本周国内TC不变，进口TC小幅回升。6月相比 5月冶炼环比提升2.5万吨左右，矿端加工费月均预计提升150元/吨。需求端，内需边际走弱，华北和华南订单环比下 滑，但刚性仍存，绝对价格下跌过快时下游存在一定点价;海外，欧洲需求较弱，但部分炼厂因为加工费问题生产有一 定阻力，现货升贴水小幅提高。国内，社库震荡，绝对价格下跌升水有抬升，但价格企稳后升水又出现回落，累库加速 拐点预计在六月中旬出现。海外LME库存基本保持不变，5月后震荡去化，主要由于海外锌锭较多流入国内。策略方 面，锌空配思路不变，反弹逢高沽空; ...