有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡走弱，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国 12 月 20 日当 | | | | | 周首申失业金人数降至 21.4 万人，预期和前值为 22.4 万人，表明劳动力市场仍未见明 | | | | | 显压力。美国财政部长贝森特支持在通胀率稳步回落至 2%之后，重新审视美联储的这一 | | | | | 通胀目标，主张央行退居幕后、缩小干预，并与财政部协同配合。国内方面，央行四季 | | | | | 度例会表示将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。库存方面， | | | | 铜 | LME 库存下降 1550 吨至 157025 吨；Comex 库存增加 4095 吨至 435035 吨；SHFE 铜仓 | | | | | 单增加 2679 吨至 52222 吨，BC 铜仓单维持 1053 吨。需求方面，铜价再度走高，下游企 | | | | | | | 业采购转为谨慎，成交以刚需为主。美联储降息预期和购债 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core Views - For copper, the long - term TC for copper concentrate is set at $0/ton next year, having little impact on the market. The domestic market may see a slight inventory build - up until the Spring Festival, and the overall idea is to buy on dips with the price expected to range from $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1]. - For aluminum, the import of primary aluminum decreased in November while exports increased. Domestic apparent demand is weak, but the falling inventory supports the price, which is expected to be in a volatile range [1]. - For zinc, the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium declined, and the price dropped. The supply side has a tightening trend, and the demand side is seasonally weak. It's recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and pay attention to 01 - 03 and 03 - 05 spreads [3][4][5]. - For nickel, the pure nickel output decreased slightly. Demand is weak, and inventories are rising. There is a game between short - term policy and fundamentals [8]. - For stainless steel, the steel mills' production is high, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the fundamentals are weak. The Indonesian policy has a price - supporting motivation [10]. - For lead, the lead price decreased slightly. Supply and demand are in a complex situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16,700 - 17,100 yuan [11][13]. - For tin, the tin price rose rapidly due to macro factors. The supply side may increase production, and the demand side is weak. There are short - term risks and long - term uncertainties [16]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are expected to be balanced in December, with the price fluctuating with costs in the short - term and facing over - capacity in the long - term [17]. - For lithium carbonate, the price increased due to factors like mining rights cancellation. The supply and demand are both strong, but demand may weaken. The price needs certain conditions to rise further [21]. Group 3: Summaries by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 18 - 24, the Shanghai copper spot price changed by - 25, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 431, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,550 tons [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The long - term TC for copper concentrate has little impact. The domestic market may see a slight inventory build - up, and the overall idea is to buy on dips with the price expected to range from $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 18 - 24, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 150, and the LME inventory increased by 1,450 tons [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The import of primary aluminum decreased in November, domestic apparent demand is weak, but the falling inventory supports the price, which is expected to be in a volatile range [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 18 - 24, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 170, and the LME inventory increased by 7,900 tons. The LME zinc 0 - 3M premium decreased from $90.6 to - $30.61 [3][4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply side has a tightening trend, and the demand side is seasonally weak. It's recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and pay attention to 01 - 03 and 03 - 05 spreads [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 18 - 24, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 5,350, and the LME inventory increased by 1,092 tons [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The pure nickel output decreased slightly. Demand is weak, and inventories are rising. There is a game between short - term policy and fundamentals [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 18 - 24, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, and the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 55 [10]. - **Market Outlook**: The steel mills' production is high, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the fundamentals are weak. The Indonesian policy has a price - supporting motivation [10]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 18 - 24, the lead price decreased slightly, and the LME inventory decreased by 4,200 tons [11][13]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply and demand are in a complex situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16,700 - 17,100 yuan [13]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 18 - 24, the tin price rose rapidly, and the LME inventory increased by 220 tons [16]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin price rose due to macro factors. The supply side may increase production, and the demand side is weak. There are short - term risks and long - term uncertainties [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 18 - 24, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis decreased by 80, and the 553 East China and Tianjin basis decreased by 80. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 84 [17]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply and demand are expected to be balanced in December, with the price fluctuating with costs in the short - term and facing over - capacity in the long - term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 18 - 24, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 2,000, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 450 [21]. - **Market Outlook**: The price increased due to factors like mining rights cancellation. The supply and demand are both strong, but demand may weaken. The price needs certain conditions to rise further [21].

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to leverage opportunities in high-end aluminum applications across various industries, including automotive, aerospace, marine engineering, and renewable energy, to become the largest supplier of lightweight alloy materials globally [1] Group 1: Strategic Focus - The company plans to expand its global market share while focusing on the domestic market [1] - It will enhance the production capacity of high-performance aluminum materials and develop comprehensive deep processing solutions [1] - The company is committed to building a more scientific governance structure to support long-term high-quality development [1] Group 2: Market Orientation - The company will focus on market trends and potential customer needs, emphasizing technological innovation [1] - Continuous optimization of product structure and core competitiveness is a priority [1] Group 3: Globalization and Sustainability - The company intends to optimize its production layout with a global perspective, positioning near green energy regions to shorten customer supply chains [1] - It aims to meet long-term sustainable development requirements [1] Group 4: Organizational Development - The company will optimize its organizational structure and build a talent reserve to support rapid growth [1] - It plans to leverage digitalization, automation, and intelligence to enhance management efficiency [1] Group 5: ESG Commitment - The company is dedicated to advancing ESG initiatives to build an environmentally friendly enterprise [1] - It will utilize the advantages of capital markets and its public company platform to strengthen its position in the industry transformation [1]

Group 1 - The company is actively promoting its "intelligent and digital" transformation in recent years [2] - The company has begun deploying the DeepSeek system, which is used for building an enterprise knowledge base and report analysis [2] - The DeepSeek system is also utilized for analyzing production data in the electrolytic aluminum business to enhance labor productivity and refined management capabilities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively monitoring developments in the aluminum tube air conditioning sector and has successfully met customer demands with its internal threaded aluminum tube products, which are now in small-scale supply [1] Group 1: Product Development - The company is accelerating the construction of new production lines for household air conditioning aluminum tubes based on downstream customer demand [1] - The performance of household air conditioning internal threaded aluminum tubes is superior to traditional aluminum tubes, making them a better alternative to internal threaded copper tubes [1] Group 2: Market Potential - The product has a higher gross margin and significant market potential [1] - The company has a solid customer base and technical reserves in the aluminum materials business [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - The company is continuously monitoring and following the market demand in the "aluminum replacing copper" sector [1] - Current aluminum products, such as electromagnetic aluminum flat wires and aluminum automotive 3D bent tubes, are in the certification and mass production supply stages [1]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报 仓减仓 378 手至 15640 手；现货方面，SMM 氧化铝价格回落至 2746 元/吨。铝锭现货贴 水扩至 170 元/吨。佛山 A00 报价回落至 21790 元/吨，对无锡 A00 报贴水 70 元/吨，铝 棒加工费多地持稳，新疆南昌南昌无锡上调 10-30 元/吨；铝杆 1A60 系加工费及 6/8 系 加工费持稳，低碳铝杆下调 58 元/吨。几矿增加发运叠加大型矿业复产，给予近远期矿 石到港支撑。因新疆交割库利润不再，仓单开始外流，同时进口氧化铝增量，持续给予 现货氧化铝增压。氧化铝延续下跌态势逐步向期货收敛，现货高升水持续收窄。新疆发 运受阻的铝锭或集中到库，后续面临转累库压力。随着宏观情绪计价完毕，铝价后续涨 势相对乏力，延续高位震荡节奏。 隔夜 LME 镍涨 2.49%报 15640 美元/吨，沪镍涨 2.52%报 125360 元/吨。库存方面，LME 库存增加 216 吨至 254604 吨，SHFE 仓单减少 301 吨至 38621 吨。升贴水来看，LME0- 3 月升贴水维持负数；进口镍升贴水维持 400 元/吨。消息面，印尼镍矿商协会透露，2026 年 ...

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector has been performing strongly, with silver rising over 4%, and stocks such as Shengda Resources, Electric Alloy, Xingye Silver Tin, New Weiling, Northern Copper Industry, and Shenzhen New Star also seeing gains [3] - Semiconductor company SMIC's A-shares and H-shares both rose over 2%, with reports indicating a price increase of approximately 10% on some of its production capacity [3] - The A-share market opened with all three major indices rising slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.07%, and the ChiNext Index also up 0.07% [4][5] Group 2 - In the market, sectors such as photovoltaic glass, energy metals, memory storage, gold, and fluorine chemical stocks are performing well, while themes like Hainan Free Trade Zone, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, and dairy are weakening [6] - The central bank conducted a 260 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, with 468 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today [7] - The Hong Kong stock market opened with the Hang Seng Index up 0.02% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.07%, with SMIC rising over 2% and other companies like Huahong Semiconductor, NetEase, and Zijin Mining also seeing gains [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For copper, maintain a buy-on-dip strategy with an expected price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December due to continued overseas liquidity easing [1]. - For aluminum, despite weak domestic demand, falling aluminum ingot inventories support prices in the short - term, and prices are expected to stay in a volatile range [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are weak, but there may be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for 01 - 03 and 03 - 05 spreads [5]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, but the policy side has a motivation to support prices, leading to intensified policy - fundamentals game [9]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, but short - term price rebounds are driven by news of quota cuts from the Indonesian Nickel Association [11]. - For lead, the price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,100 yuan next week. Attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [14]. - For tin, in the short - term, there is a risk of marginal over - supply, and the fundamentals show signs of weakening. In the long - term, demand determines the upside, and it can be a multi - allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter [17]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, the over - capacity is still significant [18]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, but demand shows signs of weakening. The price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [22]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 17 - 23, the Shanghai copper spot price decreased by 10, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 504, and the LME inventory increased by 825 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The long - term TC for copper concentrate has little impact on the market. The domestic market is expected to see a small inventory build - up until the Spring Festival, with suppressed spreads and import profit windows. Overseas liquidity is loose, and the price is expected to range from $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 17 - 23, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 60, and the domestic alumina price decreased by 7 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: In November, primary aluminum imports declined, and exports increased. Domestic apparent demand is weak. Although domestic demand is poor, falling inventories support prices in the short - term, and prices are expected to stay in a volatile range [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 17 - 23, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 60, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 275 [3][4]. - **Market Outlook**: The LME zinc 0 - 3M premium declined. Supply - side TC is falling, and there are production cuts due to smelter maintenance. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and varies overseas. The price may not fall deeply, and different arbitrage opportunities are recommended [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 17 - 23, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 3,700, and the LME inventory increased by 216 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Pure nickel production decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are rising at home and abroad. The Indonesian Nickel Association's quota plan adds policy - fundamentals game [9]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 17 - 23, the 304 cold - rolled coil price increased by 100, and the waste stainless steel price increased by 70 [11]. - **Market Outlook**: Steel mills' production is high, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. The Indonesian policy supports prices, leading to short - term price rebounds [11]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 17 - 23, the lead price decreased slightly, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,850 [12][14]. - **Market Outlook**: Primary production may decrease due to maintenance, and secondary production has recovered. Demand is expected to weaken. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,100 yuan, and attention should be paid to low - warehouse - receipt risks [14]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 17 - 23, the tin price rose rapidly, and the LME inventory increased by 50 [17]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, there is a risk of over - supply, and the fundamentals are weakening. In the long - term, demand determines the upside, and it can be a multi - allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter [17]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 17 - 23, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 185, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 156 [18]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, supply and demand are balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, over - capacity is still high [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 17 - 23, the SMM electric - carbon price increased by 500, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 240 [22]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, supply and demand are strong, but demand is weakening. The 12 - month de - stocking is expected to be 7,000 - 7,500 tons. The price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [22].

技术创新层面，立中集团自主研发的免热处理铝合金材料实现了国产化替代，在新能源汽车一体压铸领 域实现了规模化量产应用；同时前瞻性布局人形机器人、商业航天、半导体等新兴行业，加速新技术、 新材料的产业化落地。海外布局方面，近五年间，泰国基地完成产能扩容，成为公司辐射东南亚及全球 市场的核心枢纽；墨西哥工厂顺利投产运营，增强了公司全球供应链的稳定性与韧性。 此外，立中集团持续完善"三会一层"治理机制，严守信息披露真实、准确、完整原则，连续4年斩获深 交所信息披露A级评价；通过多渠道投资者互动、清晰的股东回报规划及股份回购等举措，持续传递发 展信心，塑造负责任的上市公司形象，为产业发展筑牢资本根基。 作为全国民营企业500强，河北省上市公司优秀企业代表，立中集团（300428）深耕铝合金新材料与汽 车轻量化零部件领域。 展望"十五五"，立中集团相关负责人表示，将继续聚焦"铝合金新材料和汽车轻量化零部件全球供应 商"的战略定位，集中资源深耕核心主业，通过持续创新和运营提质增效，深化在新能源汽车、机器 人、商业航天及半导体等新赛道的材料研发与市场开拓，进一步完善全球布局，构建更具弹性的全球供 应网络，提升公司内在价值和核 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper Industry (000878) reported that sulfuric acid is a byproduct of its copper smelting process, with prices influenced by regional factors and remaining high throughout the year due to strong downstream demand and tight international sulfur supply [1] Group 1: Price Influences - The sales price of sulfuric acid has been consistently high this year due to multiple factors [1] - Strong resilience in downstream demand has contributed to the elevated prices [1] - Tight international sulfur supply has directly increased production costs for sulfuric acid [1] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The company has actively seized market opportunities this year, leading to a positive contribution to its performance [1] - Regional factors and export diversion have also played a role in pushing up prices [1]