Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated upwards, with domestic refined copper imports remaining at a loss. The US Senate passing a temporary funding bill and China's measures to boost private investment have lifted market sentiment. LME copper inventories increased by 375 tons to 136,275 tons, Comex inventories rose by 2,662 tons to 337,752 tons, and domestic refined copper social inventories decreased by 0.38 million tons to 19.95 million tons. Copper prices may show short - term optimism, and attention should be paid to overseas financial markets and domestic inventories [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended strongly. Alumina factory profits are being compressed, with occasional production cuts in loss - making capacities. The market is in a state of internal - external differentiation, and electrolytic aluminum will continue to adjust at a high level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunities of AD after the narrowing of the price difference [1][3]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.53% to $15,100 per ton, while Shanghai nickel remained flat at 119,490 yuan per ton. Indonesia has suspended new nickel smelter licenses. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is sluggish, and the new energy industry chain has a slight increase in the discount coefficient. Nickel prices may still fluctuate, and inventory conditions should be monitored [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price increase, influenced by US and Chinese policies. Changes in inventory and demand, and the impact of LME's new rules. Short - term optimism with attention to market and inventory [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight price increase, compressed alumina factory profits, internal - external differentiation, and short - term high - level adjustment [1][3]. - **Nickel**: Overnight price increase, Indonesia's new policy, weak raw material support in the industry chain, and potential price fluctuations [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes in various aspects such as market prices, scrap copper, and downstream products. Inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and social inventories [4]. - **Lead**: Price changes in lead products, inventory changes in LME and SHFE [4]. - **Aluminum**: Price changes in aluminum products, raw materials, and downstream processing fees. Inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories [5]. - **Nickel**: Price changes in nickel products, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories [5]. - **Zinc**: Price changes in zinc products, TC, and inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories [7]. - **Tin**: Price changes in tin products, inventory changes in LME and SHFE [7]. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][10][11] - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][19] - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26] - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33] - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39] - **3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts show the smelting profit trends of copper, aluminum, nickel - iron, zinc, and stainless steel 304 from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45] Non - Core Content (Not Included in Main Summary) - Team Introduction: The report introduces the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements [48][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the release of October inflation data, the month-on-month PPI unexpectedly turned positive, with non-ferrous metals performing prominently. However, the month-on-month PPI is not expected to continuously exceed expectations, and the rise in non-ferrous metal prices alone is insufficient to drive a significant increase in PPI. The year-on-year recovery of PPI next year is mainly due to the base effect, and the recovery of non-ferrous metal prices alone cannot support the year-on-year PPI to significantly exceed 0 [2]. - The reasons for the unexpected positive month-on-month PPI in October include the continuous deviation of the prediction results of PMI ex-factory prices and purchase prices since August, the lag effect of the recovery of upstream prices in the third quarter due to poor demand, and the support of coal and non-ferrous metals at the industry level. It is also expected that the year-on-year PPI may remain volatile within the year [2]. - Although the weight of non-ferrous related industries in PPI has increased, oil, black metals, and coal still dominate. A 10% increase in the month-on-month price of the non-ferrous metal industry will drive a 0.6 percentage point increase in the month-on-month PPI, and a 10% increase in the 3-month moving average of copper prices will lead to a 0.135 percentage point recovery in the month-on-month PPI [2]. - Regarding the conditions for the year-on-year PPI to turn positive next year, only in scenarios where the month-on-month PPI remains at 0.1% or follows the seasonal pattern will the year-on-year PPI turn positive in the middle of next year. Based on the assumption of commodity price trends, the year-on-year PPI will turn positive in August next year [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Why did the month-on-month PPI exceed expectations? - Since August, the prediction results of PMI ex-factory prices and purchase prices have continuously deviated, and the performance of purchase prices is significantly better than that of ex-factory prices, which led to the deviation of the October prediction results [5]. - Poor demand caused a lag effect in the recovery of upstream prices in the third quarter. From July to September, the month-on-month PPI of production materials showed an obvious recovery trend [5]. - At the industry level, coal and non-ferrous metals supported the unexpected positive month-on-month PPI in October. The coal price increase was driven by anti-involution policies, and the sharp rise in copper prices was due to global supply disruptions and increased demand from AI enterprise capital expenditures [5]. 2. Has the weight of non-ferrous metals in PPI increased? 2.1 From an industry perspective, the proportion of non-ferrous metals has increased, but oil and black metals are still the main contributors - The weight of non-ferrous related industries has increased. Compared with 2020, the revenue share of the non-ferrous metal smelting and processing industry in 2024 increased by 1.24 percentage points to 6.24%. However, since 2020, the industries with the largest contributions have still been oil, black metals, coal, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [2][11]. - The revenue share of each industry in 2024 did not show obvious structural changes compared with 2020. The top ten industries remained the same, only with slight changes in the ranking order [12]. - The industry concentration has increased, and the industries with a significant increase in proportion are those with high weights. The top five industries with an increase in proportion are the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, power and heat production and supply industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry, and gas production and supply industry [13]. - A 10 percentage point month-on-month increase in the non-ferrous metal industry will drive a 0.6 percentage point increase in the month-on-month PPI. Assuming the prices of other industries remain unchanged, a moderate recovery in non-ferrous metal prices will drive the year-on-year PPI to turn positive in June next year [16]. 2.2 From the perspective of underlying commodities, the predictive role of copper prices has increased - Using the combination of oil and steel for prediction had good results before 2020, but the prediction effect weakened significantly after 2020 [18]. - Adding copper improved the prediction effect for the period after 2022, and replacing copper with aluminum also improved the prediction effect, but not as effectively as copper [18]. - Adding coal improved the overall prediction effect, and the combination of oil, steel, copper, and coal had the best prediction effect [19]. - A 10% increase in the 3-month moving average of copper prices will drive a 0.135 percentage point increase in the month-on-month PPI. Assuming the prices of oil, steel, and coal remain unchanged, a moderate month-on-month increase in copper prices can support the year-on-year PPI to turn positive in July next year [20]. 3. Conditions for the year-on-year PPI to turn positive 3.1 Even if prices remain unchanged, the year-on-year PPI will be around 0 next year - Assuming the month-on-month PPI remains around 0%, the year-on-year PPI will be difficult to turn positive next year [26]. - Assuming the month-on-month PPI remains at 0.1%, the year-on-year PPI will turn positive in June next year [27]. - Assuming the month-on-month PPI follows the seasonal pattern, the year-on-year PPI will turn positive in July next year, and by the end of 2026, the year-on-year PPI will recover to around 0.9% [29]. 3.2 From the perspective of anti-involution - One method is to predict each major industry category based on the understanding of anti-involution policies and then estimate the overall month-on-month PPI based on weights. However, this method has two problems: anti-involution does not necessarily lead to price increases, and it only focuses on the supply side while ignoring the demand side [31]. - Another method is to estimate the recovery trend of PPI based on historical experience. Referring to the previous round of supply-side reforms, it took 9 months for the year-on-year PPI to turn positive. Based on this, the year-on-year PPI is expected to turn positive around mid-2026 [32]. 3.3 Based on the price prediction model of oil, steel, copper, and coal - It is expected that the Brent crude oil price will decline slightly to $60 per barrel, the price of rebar will first decline and then rise slightly to 3,400 yuan per ton, the LME copper price will rise moderately to around $11,000 per ton, and the coking coal price will recover moderately to 1,300 yuan per ton. Based on this, the year-on-year PPI will turn positive in August next year [33].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices slightly pulled back this week, finding support from downstream centralized price fixing at the 85,000 level. The current slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, with the fundamentals remaining stable but weak [1]. - Aluminum prices strengthened significantly, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market. Future aluminum supply and demand may remain in a tight balance, being prone to rise in the long - term, but the actual performance may fall short of expectations [2]. - Zinc prices moved higher this week. The price center may be difficult to decline significantly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 12 - 02 spread [5]. - Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, and it is advisable to operate cautiously while observing the resumption of secondary production and the increase in warehouse receipts [12]. - Tin prices oscillated this week. The domestic fundamentals will maintain a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, hold positions at low prices near the cost line [15]. - Industrial silicon supply and demand are expected to be in a slightly loose balance in Q4, with prices expected to oscillate. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the overall inventory - reduction trend will be maintained. The upward potential will depend on inventory reduction, the emergence of speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [16]. - Nickel supply decreased slightly, demand was weak, and inventories continued to accumulate. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [20]. - Stainless steel fundamentals remained weak. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [21]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 4th to 10th, the spot premium of Shanghai copper increased by 25, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 284, and the LME inventory increased by 375 tons [1]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, the copper price slightly pulled back, and the 85,000 level obtained downstream concentrated price - fixing support. The current slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, and the fundamentals are stable but weak [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 4th to 10th, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots decreased by 50 - 60 yuan/ton, the domestic alumina price decreased by 6 yuan/ton, and the LME inventory decreased by 2000 tons [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Iceland's long - term reduction in electrolytic aluminum production was finalized, and the price of aluminum strengthened significantly. The future supply and demand of aluminum may remain in a tight balance, but the actual performance may be worse than expected [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 4th to 10th, the zinc price center moved higher. The domestic social inventory was volatile, and the overseas LME inventory was oscillating at a low level [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is tightening, and the demand is seasonally weak. The export window has opened, and there is a short - term risk of price decline. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [5]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 4th to 10th, lead prices fluctuated at a high level, and the LME inventory decreased by 1500 tons [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of lead is gradually recovering, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 4th to 10th, tin prices oscillated, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of tin is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly supported by rigidity. The domestic fundamentals are in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 4th to 10th, the basis of industrial silicon decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 75 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be in a slightly loose balance in Q4, and prices are expected to oscillate. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 4th to 10th, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 159 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the expected resumption of production in Jiangxi mines, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the overall inventory - reduction trend will be maintained [16]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 4th to 10th, nickel prices increased slightly, and the LME inventory increased by 300 tons [20]. - **Market Analysis**: Nickel supply decreased slightly, demand was weak, and inventories continued to accumulate. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [20]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 4th to 10th, the prices of stainless steel products remained stable, and the price of scrap stainless steel increased by 100 yuan/ton [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of stainless steel remained weak, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [21].

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminum: Macro sentiment provides strong support, with a persistent pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets and high prices. However, downstream demand weakens during the off - season, increasing the pressure of inventory accumulation. Later, attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical crises, the implementation of macro policies, supply expansion, and consumption release [14]. - Zinc: In the short term, prices follow the overall non - ferrous metals trend and remain at a high level. But in the long - term, supply expansion exerts upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mining end to the smelting end, and be vigilant about macro - risk events and LME inventory trends [16]. - Tin: Supply is tight, and tin prices are consolidating strongly. Later, attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the trade policies of various countries [17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 01. Color Weekly Market Review - Copper: The closing price of the futures main contract on November 7, 2025, was 85,940 yuan, down 1070 yuan (- 1.23%) from October 31. The spot price was 85,995 yuan, down 1570 yuan (- 1.79%) [9]. - Aluminum: The closing price of the futures main contract on November 7, 2025, was 21,625 yuan, up 325 yuan (1.53%) from October 31. The spot price was 21,580 yuan, up 280 yuan (1.31%) [9]. - Zinc: The closing price of the futures main contract on November 7, 2025, was 22,720 yuan, up 365 yuan (1.63%) from October 31. The spot price was 22,768 yuan, up 248 yuan (1.10%) [9]. - Tin: The closing price of the futures main contract on November 7, 2025, was 283,510 yuan, down 400 yuan (- 0.14%) from October 31. The spot price was 283,750 yuan, down 500 yuan (- 0.18%) [9]. - Nickel: The closing price of the futures main contract on November 7, 2025, was 119,440 yuan, down 1150 yuan (- 0.95%) from October 31. The spot price was 121,290 yuan, down 980 yuan (- 0.80%) [9]. 02. This Week's Non - Ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated strongly. Macroeconomically, the US Treasury bond yield declined slightly with the government shutdown, and the non - farm payroll report was not released. Fundamentally, in October, China's bauxite production decreased by 2.25% month - on - month and 6.96% year - on - year. Although some mines can resume production, they need government approval. Some mines increase the proportion of imported high - temperature ore. The domestic downstream processing enterprise's starting rate decreased, and the inventory increased slightly [13]. Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices remained at a high level. The average weekly TC of domestic SMM Zn50 decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by 4.17 dollars/dry ton. The galvanizing starting rate decreased by 2.4 percentage points. Downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing due to high prices, and the inventory increased slightly [16]. Tin - Logic: In October, domestic tin ingot production increased to 16,090 tons. In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% month - on - month. Myanmar's resumption of production was slow, and Indonesia's export speed slowed down. Domestic production and starting rates increased, but processing fees remained low. Semiconductor consumption was good, while traditional sectors cooled down [17]. 03. Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite: - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 660 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 590 yuan/ton week - on - week; the average price index of imported bauxite was 72.8 dollars/ton, down 0.35 dollars week - on - week [22]. - Arrival and departure volume: The arrival volume at ports was 3.1232 million tons, down 649,600 tons week - on - week; the departure volume was 3.991 million tons, down 742,400 tons week - on - week [23]. - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan remained unchanged at 2865 yuan/ton week - on - week; the full cost was 2905 yuan/ton, down 15.4 yuan week - on - week; the profit in Shanxi was - 94.41 yuan/ton, up 25.73 yuan week - on - week [28]. - Electrolytic aluminum: - Total cost: 16,113.5 yuan/ton, up 70.44 yuan week - on - week [33]. - Regional spread: The spread between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan week - on - week [33]. - Downstream processing: The starting rates of aluminum cables, foils, strips, profiles, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys showed different degrees of change, with some decreasing and some increasing or remaining unchanged [36][37]. - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai was 46,500 tons, down 2800 tons week - on - week; the total bonded - area inventory was 65,500 tons, down 2800 tons week - on - week; the social inventory was 627,000 tons, unchanged week - on - week; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 112,300 tons, down 18,400 tons week - on - week; the SHFE inventory was 113,335 tons, down 239 tons week - on - week; the LME inventory was 549,225 tons, down 8825 tons week - on - week [42][43]. - Spot: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum for the current month was - 10 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan week - on - week; for the main contract, it was - 85 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan week - on - week; for the third - consecutive contract, it was - 90 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan week - on - week [48]. - Inter - monthly spread of Shanghai Aluminum: The spread between the current month and the main contract was - 75 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan week - on - week; between the current month and the third - consecutive contract, it was - 80 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan week - on - week [49]. Zinc - Zinc concentrate: - Price and processing fee: The price of domestic zinc concentrate was 18,206 yuan/metal ton, up 688 yuan week - on - week; the domestic processing fee was 2850 yuan/metal ton, down 400 yuan week - on - week; the imported processing fee was 98.37 dollars/dry ton, down 4.17 dollars week - on - week [58]. - Production profit, import profit and loss, and inventory: The enterprise production profit was 5206 yuan/metal ton, up 688 yuan week - on - week; the import profit and loss was - 2305.84 yuan/ton, down 47.67 yuan week - on - week; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang was 160,000 physical tons, up 30,000 tons week - on - week [61]. - Refined zinc inventory: The SMM seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots was 159,600 tons, down 2100 tons week - on - week; the bonded - area inventory was 3800 tons, down 400 tons week - on - week; the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 100,208 tons, down 3208 tons week - on - week; the LME zinc inventory was 34,900 tons, down 400 tons week - on - week [64]. - Galvanizing: The production was 318,270 tons, down 24,350 tons week - on - week; the starting rate was 55.13%, down 2.41 percentage points week - on - week; the raw material inventory was 13,080 tons, up 420 tons week - on - week; the finished - product inventory was 359,000 tons, down 8000 tons week - on - week [68]. - Zinc basis: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot for the current month was - 20 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan week - on - week; for the main contract, it was - 80 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan week - on - week; for the third - consecutive contract, it was - 120 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan week - on - week [72]. - Inter - monthly spread of Shanghai Zinc: The spread between the current month and the main contract was - 60 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan week - on - week; between the current month and the third - consecutive contract, it was - 110 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan week - on - week [73]. Tin - Refined tin: - Production and starting rate: The combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 3350 tons, up 20 tons week - on - week; the combined starting rate was 69.13%, up 0.41 percentage points week - on - week [83]. - Tin ingot inventory: The total SHFE tin ingot inventory was 5992 tons, up 73 tons week - on - week; the social inventory in Chinese regions was 7033 tons, up 349 tons week - on - week [86]. - Tin concentrate processing fee: The processing fees in Yunnan (40%), Guangxi (60%), Hunan (60%), and Jiangxi (60%) remained unchanged week - on - week [89]. - Tin ore import profit and loss: The import profit and loss level was 11,635.53 yuan/ton, down 2907.46 yuan week - on - week [90]. - Spot average price: The average prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi decreased by 700 yuan/ton week - on - week [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate. It takes into account factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand relationships, and price trends to provide investment suggestions for each metal [2][3]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Trend**: This week, copper prices fell from high levels but remained at historical highs, with weakening upward momentum. In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation under the influence of macro and fundamental factors, with the main contract of Shanghai copper likely to operate in the range of 84,000 - 88,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Macro Factors**: Hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve have cooled the expectation of a December interest rate cut. The US government shutdown has delayed the release of key employment data, leading to cautious market sentiment. The strengthening of the US dollar has also suppressed copper prices [2]. - **Fundamental Factors**: Overseas mine restarts are slow, and the tight supply of copper concentrates has not significantly improved. Domestic electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month. High copper prices have curbed consumption, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand [2]. - **Investment Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. Aluminum - **Price Trend**: Aluminum prices are oscillating upward at a high level, while alumina prices are oscillating at a low level. The prices of aluminum alloys are also oscillating upward at a high level [2]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The supply of domestic bauxite is expected to improve, while the price of bauxite in Guinea has decreased. The operating capacity of alumina has increased, and the inventory has also risen. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has decreased slightly. The demand for aluminum downstream has weakened, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased slightly [2]. - **Investment Suggestion**: For alumina, it is recommended to take profit on long positions and sold out - of - the - money put options. For Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloys, it is recommended to strengthen observation [2]. Zinc - **Price Trend**: Last week, zinc prices continued to rise. In general, the supply - side support is relatively strong due to the continuous decline in processing fees, but the high inventory and weak demand limit the upward space of Shanghai zinc. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The processing fees of domestic and imported zinc ores have continued to decline, and the smelting profit has decreased. The market expects a reduction in refined zinc production. Terminal consumption is weak overall, and downstream enterprises maintain rigid - demand procurement [2]. - **Investment Suggestion**: It is recommended to conduct range trading [2]. Lead - **Price Trend**: Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 17,420 yuan/ton, showing a trend of rising and then falling. In the short term, lead prices may continue to rise after consolidation [2]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The LME and COMEX lead inventories have decreased, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventory has increased. The demand for lead smelting remains strong, but the high price of primary lead has reduced the stocking willingness of downstream enterprises and increased the demand for recycled lead [2]. - **Investment Suggestion**: It is recommended to go long at low prices within the range of 17,300 - 17,800 yuan/ton [2]. Nickel - **Price Trend**: Last week, Shanghai nickel oscillated and declined. Nickel remains in a surplus situation, and the price is expected to oscillate downward within the range of 117,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The RKAB approval of Indonesian nickel mines continues, and miners' sentiment to hold up prices persists. The supply of refined nickel is in surplus, and the inventory is increasing. The price of nickel iron is under pressure to oscillate, and the price of stainless steel is weak [3]. - **Investment Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold short positions moderately at high prices [3]. Tin - **Price Trend**: Overseas supply is tight, and prices continue to oscillate. It is expected that tin prices will be supported, and it is recommended to conduct range trading within the range of 270,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton for the Shanghai tin 12 - contract [3]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: In October, domestic refined tin production decreased year - on - year. The import of tin concentrates decreased in September. The consumption of the semiconductor industry is expected to recover, but the consumption of consumer electronics and photovoltaics is weak [3]. - **Investment Suggestion**: It is recommended to conduct range trading and continuously monitor the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: Industrial silicon prices are oscillating and adjusting, and the overall idea is to conduct range trading or wait and see. The price of polysilicon is oscillating widely at a high level [3]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The weekly output of industrial silicon has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The weekly output of polysilicon has decreased, and the market expects the establishment of a state - reserve platform. The production reduction of industrial silicon is stronger than that of polysilicon in reality, but the expectation of polysilicon production reduction still exists [3]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The overall idea is to conduct band trading, going long on polysilicon (PS) and short on industrial silicon (SI) [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: The price of lithium carbonate is oscillating widely overall, showing a trend of rising and then falling. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to build long positions at low prices [3]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The supply and demand in the domestic market are in a tight balance. The downstream demand is strong, and the terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good. The production of lithium carbonate in October increased month - on - month, and the import of lithium concentrates increased in September [3]. - **Investment Suggestion**: It is recommended to build long positions at low prices and continuously monitor the progress of mining permits in Yichun and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [3]. 4. Macro - economic Data - **China**: China's October RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.6, remaining above the boom - bust line for three consecutive months, indicating continuous improvement in manufacturing prosperity, but the growth rate has slowed down. In October, China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, while imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year [13][14]. - **US**: The US October ISM manufacturing index was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1, indicating that the US manufacturing industry continued to contract. The US Supreme Court held a public hearing on Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" [16][18]. - **Eurozone**: The Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI final value was 50, indicating that the manufacturing industry was in a state of stagnation [17].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a non - ferrous metals daily report dated November 10, 2025, covering various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [1] Group 2: Copper Market Information - On Friday, the US dollar index declined. The LME 3M copper contract rose 0.07% to $10,695/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,920 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1,425 tons to 135,900 tons, with the cancelled warrant ratio rising and the Cash/3M discount narrowing to $18.2/ton. Domestic SHFE inventory decreased slightly, and the warrant dropped to 43,000 tons. Shanghai spot copper was at a premium of 40 yuan/ton to the futures, with increased weekend downstream replenishment. Guangdong inventory decreased, and the spot was at a discount of 15 yuan/ton to the futures, with downstream purchasing for rigid demand. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 2,980 yuan/ton, narrowing compared to the previous period [2] Strategy View - Despite the US government shutdown and the high - level correction of the US stock market, it is expected to be a short - term impact. The reopening of the US government may boost market sentiment again. In the industry, the non - accident area of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has resumed production, but the stricter environmental inspections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have kept the copper supply tight. With no significant increase in scrap copper substitution, refined copper supply is expected to tighten marginally, providing strong support for copper prices. The reference operating range for the SHFE copper main contract is 85,400 - 86,600 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M copper is $10,600 - 10,850/ton [3] Group 3: Aluminum Market Information - Aluminum prices continued to be strong. On Friday, LME aluminum rose 0.67% to $2,862/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,555 yuan/ton. The SHFE weighted contract open interest increased by 16,000 to 730,000 lots, and the futures warrant decreased slightly to 64,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory in three regions decreased, while aluminum bar inventory in three regions increased slightly, and the aluminum bar processing fee declined, with average market trading. The spot electrolytic aluminum in East China was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the futures, with improved trading sentiment. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 549,000 tons, the cancelled warrant ratio declined, and the Cash/3M discount widened [5] Strategy View - Overseas aluminum plant shutdowns or production cuts have raised supply concerns. Domestic inventory remains low overall. Against the backdrop of expected easing of global trade tensions and the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut, supply - side disruptions and improved domestic export expectations may push aluminum prices higher. Attention should be paid to the support of domestic inventory changes on prices. The reference operating range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,400 - 21,700 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M aluminum is $2,830 - 2,890/ton [6] Group 4: Lead Market Information - On Friday, the SHFE lead index fell 0.05% to 17,429 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 120,300 lots in unilateral trading. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME 3S lead rose $12 to $2,034/ton, with a total open interest of 150,300 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,250 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,200 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 21,900 tons, the domestic physical basis was - 170 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 205,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrant was 103,600 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - $14.96/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $85.1/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.204, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 276.14 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventory increased slightly to 32,100 tons [8] Strategy View - The lead concentrate TC continued to decline, the smelting profit of primary and recycled lead was good, the primary lead production start - up rate remained high, and the recycled lead production start - up rate continued to rise. The downstream battery enterprise start - up rate was still at a low level, and the domestic social inventory of lead ingots bottomed out and rebounded but remained at a relatively low level. LME lead inventory continued to decline, and the inter - month spread strengthened. Both domestic and foreign deliverable products were in a state of inventory decline, and the marginal shortage at the near end pushed lead prices to be strong. Currently, the long positions in SHFE lead are relatively concentrated, and it is expected that SHFE lead will fluctuate strongly in the short term [9] Group 5: Zinc Market Information - On Friday, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.20% to 22,737 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 226,900 lots in unilateral trading. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME 3S zinc rose $1 to $3,055.5/ton, with a total open interest of 225,600 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,640 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was - 50 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 90 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was - 90 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 40 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 69,300 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 50 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 34,100 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrant was 4,500 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was $104.75/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $51.5/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.047, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 4,221.66 yuan/ton. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals data, domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 158,700 tons [10] Strategy View - The zinc concentrate TC continued to decline, the zinc smelting profit was under pressure, and the start - up rate decreased marginally. The accumulation of domestic zinc ingot social inventory slowed down. The large short positions in the previous SHFE zinc main contract reduced significantly, and some became net long positions. The LME registered warrants increased slightly, and the overseas structural risk eased. The decline in zinc smelting start - up and partial zinc ingot exports tightened the spot market marginally, pushing SHFE zinc to be strong in the short term, but the upside space of zinc prices is relatively limited in the surplus cycle [11] Group 6: Tin Market Information - On November 7, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 283,510 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day. In terms of supply, after the seasonal maintenance of large smelters in Yunnan ended, the start - up rates of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces stabilized, but the overall start - up level was still at a historical low due to the unresolved shortage of tin ore raw materials. Although the mining license in the Wa State of Myanmar has been approved, affected by the rainy season and slow actual resumption of production, the tin ore export volume is still far below the normal level and cannot effectively make up for the supply gap. According to customs data, in September 2025, China's imported tin concentrate physical volume was 8,714 tons, a significant decline from the previous month. In terms of demand, although the consumption in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate was weak, the long - term demand expectations from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers supported tin prices. In October, the start - up rate of domestic tin solder enterprises showed a slight recovery, and downstream enterprises mainly replenished inventory on price dips [12] Strategy View - In the short term, the tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to go long on price dips. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $35,500 - 37,500/ton [13] Group 7: Nickel Market Information - On Friday, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly at a low level. At 3 pm, the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 119,440 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel to the near - month contract was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, the overall trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market was good this week, and nickel ore prices were stable with a slight upward trend. The arrival price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore was $52.8/wet ton, unchanged from last week; the arrival price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore was $23/wet ton, unchanged from the previous week; and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore from the Philippines was $58/ton, unchanged from last week. In the nickel - iron market, the game between supply and demand intensified, and prices remained stable for the time being. The ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was 917.5 yuan/nickel point, down 2 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [14] Strategy View - From an industrial perspective, the inventory pressure of refined nickel is still significant recently, and the weak nickel - iron prices are dragging down nickel prices. If the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, it will be difficult for nickel prices to rise significantly. However, in the long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support nickel prices, and nickel prices may confirm the bottom earlier than the fundamentals. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. If the nickel price drops sufficiently (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk appetite is high, long positions can be gradually established. The reference operating range for the short - term SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M nickel contract is $14,500 - 16,500/ton [15] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Market Information - On November 7, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 80,627 yuan in the evening session, up 2.02% from the previous working day and down 1.52% for the week. The MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 80,300 - 81,400 yuan, with the average price up 1,600 yuan (+2.02%) from the previous working day; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 79,200 - 79,700 yuan, with the average price up 2.06% from the previous day. The LC2601 contract closed at 82,300 yuan, up 2.24% from the previous closing price and up 1.88% for the week. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 100 yuan. The CIF price of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was $920 - 960/ton, with the average price up 1.62% from the previous day and down 4.57% for the week [17] Strategy View - On the demand side, the high - growth trend of power and energy - storage battery consumption continues, the prices of products in each link of the lithium - battery industry chain are strong, and the sentiment in the equity market is optimistic. On the mining side, the probability of a delay in supply recovery is high, which eases the short - term supply release pressure. Domestic lithium carbonate inventory reduction is expected to continue until the end of the year, and the spot support is strong. On the capital side, there is obvious short - covering when prices fall, and the willingness of the industry to hedge increases after the price rebound. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the trend of ore prices, the production schedule of lithium - battery materials in December, and the change in the equity market atmosphere. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 80,500 - 84,500 yuan/ton [18] Group 9: Alumina Market Information - On November 7, 2025, as of 3 pm, the alumina index fell 0.14% to 2,801 yuan/ton, with the unilateral trading open interest decreasing by 20,000 to 556,000 lots. In terms of basis, the Shandong spot price fell 5 yuan/ton to 2,780 yuan/ton, at a premium of 25 yuan/ton to the 12 - month contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price rose $5/ton to $320/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 46 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, on Friday, the futures warrant was 253,700 tons, up 1,500 tons from the previous day. The CIF price of Guinea bauxite remained at $72/ton, and the CIF price of Australian bauxite remained at $68/ton [20] Strategy View - After the rainy season, the overseas bauxite shipment will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of production cuts in the future is increasing. Moreover, the overall non - ferrous metal sector is strong, so the cost - performance of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [21] Group 10: Stainless Steel Market Information - At 15:00 on Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,590 yuan/ton, up 0.44% (+55) for the day, with the open interest increasing by 10,369 to 190,300 lots. In the spot market, the Delong 304 cold - rolled coil price in Foshan was 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil price in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Foshan basis was - 90 (- 55), and the Wuxi basis was 10 (- 55). The Foshan Hongwang 201 was quoted at 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the Hongwang annealed 430 was quoted at 7,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of Shandong high - nickel iron was 920 yuan/nickel, down 5 from the previous day. The recycling price of Baoding 304 scrap steel industrial materials was 8,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of high - carbon ferrochrome in the northern main production area was 8,200 yuan/50 - base ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures inventory was 74,195 tons, down 8,553 from the

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, copper prices slightly declined, with support from downstream concentrated price fixing at the 85,000 level. The slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, and the fundamentals remain stable but weak. Attention should be paid to the industrial support at the 85,000 level [1]. - Aluminum prices have risen significantly, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market. The future supply - demand of aluminum may remain in a tight balance, being easy to rise but difficult to fall in the long - term, but the actual performance may fall short of expectations [2]. - The center of zinc prices has increased. The supply side shows a tightening trend, and the demand side is weak. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 12 - 02 spread [5]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak, and with the Indonesian policy having a certain price - supporting motivation, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [9]. - Lead prices are oscillating at a high level. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, and it is recommended to operate cautiously while observing the resumption of secondary production and the increase in warehouse receipts [12]. - Tin prices are oscillating. The domestic fundamentals are in a short - term state of weak supply and demand. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, hold at low prices near the cost line [15]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon in the fourth quarter are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state, with prices expected to oscillate. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices fluctuate widely. In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, and the overall inventory is decreasing. The upward potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [16]. - The short - term fundamentals of nickel are weak. With continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining end and price - supporting motivation from the policy end, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [19]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the spot price of Shanghai copper fluctuated, the premium and discount changed, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1425 tons. The LME inventory also increased, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 575 tons [1]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, copper prices slightly declined, and the market's view of next year's demand is not pessimistic. The current slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, and the fundamentals are stable but weak. The 85,000 level may be the psychological price for downstream price fixing [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots changed, and the domestic alumina price decreased slightly. The inventory in the Shanghai aluminum exchange decreased by 239 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 850 tons [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The long - term reduction of Iceland's electrolytic aluminum production is confirmed, and the expectation of production reduction of other capacities is rising. Aluminum prices have risen significantly, and the future supply - demand may remain in a tight balance, but the actual performance may be disappointing [2]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the center of zinc prices increased. The domestic and imported TC decreased rapidly, and the LME inventory increased by 800 tons [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply side shows a tightening trend, and the demand side is weak. The export window has opened, and there is some inventory delivery overseas. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 12 - 02 spread [5]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled stainless steel remained unchanged [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply has increased slightly, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory remains at a high level. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [9]. Lead - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, lead prices oscillated at a high level. The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2583 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 1800 tons [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply side has some relief in the supply - demand contradiction, and the demand side has a weakening expectation. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [12]. Tin - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, tin prices oscillated. The LME inventory increased by 60 tons [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply side has marginal improvement, and the demand side is mainly supported by rigid demand. The domestic fundamentals are in a short - term state of weak supply and demand. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, hold at low prices near the cost line [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the basis of industrial silicon in different regions changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 101 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The production in the northwest region is basically stable, and the supply and demand in the fourth quarter are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. The upstream inventory has decreased significantly, and the futures - cash spread has changed [16]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, and the overall inventory is decreasing. The upward potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [16]. Nickel - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, nickel prices changed slightly. The domestic and overseas inventories continued to increase [19]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply side has a slight decline in pure nickel production, the demand side is weak, and the short - term fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [19].

国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2025年11月09日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 CONTENTS 01 锡：基本面钝化 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 07 02 03 铜：供应紧张逻辑弱化，但消费长期逻辑仍强，预计价格震荡 铝：故事性启动，年内上方空间仍可期 氧化铝：2800上下一线仍形成支撑，得益于铝厂冬储及交易面 04 铸造铝合金：临近首次交割，价格短期震荡 05 锌：供应减产，需求较弱，价格宽幅震荡 06 铅：供应增加，消费暂稳，价格震荡 锡周报 国泰君安期货 ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating high market activity and potential for investment [12][34][62] Core Insights - Copper prices have shown a slight decline, but the overall market remains robust with increasing demand and production recovery [13][14] - Aluminum market is experiencing a turning point with supply constraints and stable demand, leading to potential price increases [14] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are stabilizing amidst geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, suggesting a favorable investment environment [15] Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.80% to $10,695.00 per ton, while domestic prices fell by 1.23% to 86,000 yuan per ton [13] - Domestic copper inventory increased to 203,300 tons, marking a three-year high, with a notable rise in production rates among major cable manufacturers [13][14] - The demand for copper is recovering as prices decline, leading to improved order volumes and production rates [13] Aluminum - LME aluminum price decreased by 0.90% to $2,862.00 per ton, while domestic prices increased by 1.53% to 21,600 yuan per ton [14] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory reached 622,000 tons, with a slight increase in production rates among downstream processing enterprises [14] - The aluminum market is facing challenges due to environmental regulations and seasonal demand fluctuations, but there is potential for recovery in specific sectors [14] Precious Metals - COMEX gold price decreased by 0.15% to $4,007.80 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings increasing to 1,042.06 tons [15] - The gold market is influenced by ongoing U.S. government shutdowns and geopolitical risks, maintaining a strong but volatile trading environment [15] - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market remains positive, with expectations of price stabilization and potential upward movement [15] Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 4.23%, driven by heightened demand expectations following the suspension of export control measures [34] - The rare earth sector is expected to see significant price increases due to supply constraints and strategic importance in various industries [34] Antimony - Antimony prices decreased by 6.89%, but the market outlook is improving due to potential recovery in export demand and stable domestic consumption [36] - The report suggests that resource scarcity and reduced global supply could lead to upward price adjustments in the future [36] Tin - Tin prices slightly decreased by 0.12%, but the market is expected to remain resilient due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and stable demand [37] - The report highlights the impact of regulatory actions in Indonesia aimed at curbing illegal mining, which may support future price stability [37] Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 2.14% to 80,600 yuan per ton, with production levels showing a slight rise [62] - The lithium market is experiencing strong demand growth, particularly in the energy storage and electric vehicle sectors, which is expected to support prices [62]