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刘煜辉:押注国运,黄金上涨将 “没有顶”
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-30 05:41
来源:新青年馆 2025 年末,黄金全年暴涨近 2000 美元 / 盎司并刷新历史新高,这一异常表现背后,是全球资金对美元 美债法币体系的信任危机。在 G2 争雄、大国竞争的核心背景下,知名智囊学者刘煜辉在华夏基金年度 对话中,勾勒出 2026 年全球经济格局与投资蓝图,提出以 "哑铃策略" 为核心,押注国运与成长的投资 逻辑。 当前全球经济的核心矛盾聚焦于美元体系的内生脆弱性。2025 年,黄金的暴涨并非偶然,而是全球资 本对美元信用坍塌风险的提前定价。美元之所以尚未垮台,关键在于美国 "All in AI" 战略催生的 "新 钱" 支撑 ——AI 科创资本、区块链及加密货币等资产指数级上涨,带动美国 AI 链市值一年暴涨 7 万亿 美金,英伟达跻身 5 万亿美金市值俱乐部,美股市值 22% 被科创 "七姐妹" 占据,日韩股市也因半导体 板块分别大涨 70% 和 20%。但美国 AI 产业存在致命短板:缺乏制造业支撑,无法形成经济闭环。 OpenAI 等企业前端资本开支高达 5000 亿美金,而会员收入仅 600 亿美金,这种严重失衡导致美国科创 巨头股价自 2025 年 10 月起波动加剧,若 AI 产业 ...
重大利好!万亿“航母级”国家引导基金来了!生物制造将大爆发
Core Viewpoint - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund aims to systematically promote China's biomanufacturing industry from a follower to a leader in key areas, establishing it as a core pillar of new productive forces [2]. Group 1: Fund Structure and Scale - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund will utilize long-term special treasury bond funds, with a total fiscal contribution of 100 billion yuan at the national level, encouraging social capital participation to form a fund scale of one trillion yuan [5]. - The fund will attract participation from local governments, central enterprises, financial institutions, and private capital, focusing on strategic emerging industries and future industries [5][6]. - The fund will be structured in a three-tier architecture: "Fund Company - Regional Fund - Sub-Fund" [7]. Group 2: Investment Focus and Strategy - The fund will prioritize early-stage investments, focusing on seed, startup, and early-mid stage enterprises, with a long-term investment horizon of 20 years [8][16]. - It will adopt a "4 investment" approach: investing early, investing small, investing long-term, and investing in hard technology [10][16]. - The fund will not directly manage daily operations, ensuring market-oriented management through competitive selection of experienced fund management institutions [9]. Group 3: Regional Funds and Projects - The first three regional funds (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area) are expected to exceed 50 billion yuan each and have already signed investment intentions with 49 sub-funds and 27 direct investment projects [11][12]. - The regional funds will focus on early projects and seed enterprises in fields such as integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, aerospace, low-altitude economy, biomanufacturing, and future energy [6][12]. Group 4: Long-term Vision and Goals - The fund aims to cultivate "small giants" and "unicorns" across various industries by providing patient capital and supporting original and disruptive technological breakthroughs [8][16]. - It will address the long-term capital shortage in the venture capital industry and promote reform and innovation in the industry through a comprehensive service platform [9].
护航低空经济高质量发展 浙江省低空安全管理协会成立
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-12-30 02:34
日前,全国首个省级低空安全领域专业组织——浙江省低空安全管理协会在杭州成立。这标志着浙江低 空安全管理迈入"行业自律+协同共治"新阶段,为低空经济高质量发展装上"安全引擎"。 据悉,浙江省低空安全管理协会是经省民政厅核准登记、具有独立法人资格的专业性、非营利社会组 织,业务主管单位是浙江省公安厅。协会是由从事低空安全保障和低空经济相关的企事业单位、社会团 体组成,会员单位涵盖低空安全产品研发制造、基础设施建设、安全运营服务、低空飞行保障、低空人 才培育以及相关低空经济全产业链的相关单位。 作为协会副会长单位的浙江联通,一方面,通过参与制定《浙江省无人驾驶航空器公共安全管理规定》 等多项制度,推动监管标准化;另一方面,联合浙江大学控制科学与工程学院攻关"复杂城区环境无人 机集群协同避障技术",相关成果已应用于杭州亚运场馆安保,实现厘米级路径规划与未报备飞行器自 动拦截,入选省级技术白皮书。 "安全不是限制发展的枷锁,而是产业腾飞的翅膀。"中国工程院院士、浙江省低空安全管理协会专家委 主任陈志杰表示,解决低空安全最有效的途径是发展,通过持续推动低空经济发展,才能在动态运行中 识别风险、完善治理、提升能力,必须坚持 ...
发展壮大耐心资本大胆资本!深圳重大发布!
Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Municipal Government has released the full text of the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal, focusing on economic development strategies and the establishment of a modern industrial system to drive growth and innovation in the region [1][2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Development Strategies - The proposal emphasizes the acceleration of emerging industries, the optimization of traditional industries, and the establishment of Shenzhen as a global advanced manufacturing center [1]. - It aims to promote high-quality development in the service sector, establishing Shenzhen as a significant global industrial financial, consumption, and logistics center [2]. - The plan includes fostering a robust financial system that supports innovation and the real economy while effectively managing risks [2]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - The proposal highlights the importance of artificial intelligence as a key driver of technological revolution and industrial transformation, advocating for high-quality development and application of AI across various sectors [3]. - It calls for the establishment of a leading industrial technology innovation center to enhance productivity and support original innovation and core technology breakthroughs [4]. Group 3: Real Estate Development - The plan outlines strategies for promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector, focusing on affordable housing and improving living conditions for new citizens, youth, and migrant workers [5]. - It aims to create a comprehensive housing supply guarantee system to ensure that individuals can settle and thrive in Shenzhen [5]. Group 4: Regional Coordination and Collaboration - The proposal stresses the importance of regional coordination, enhancing Shenzhen's role as a core engine in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and promoting urban integration with neighboring cities [4].
土地整备多项指标居全市第一
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-12-29 23:18
Core Insights - The recent meeting of the Longhua District leadership group focused on advancing the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the construction of a demonstration zone for socialism with Chinese characteristics, successfully addressing land needs for 10 key enterprises [1][2] Group 1: Land Development and Industrial Projects - Six selected land parcels, totaling 12.6 hectares, include one new research and development site (M0) and five manufacturing sites (M1), aimed at supporting high-end equipment, low-altitude economy, and smart terminal industries [2][3] - The projects are expected to generate an average annual output value of nearly 30 billion yuan (approximately 4.5 billion USD) upon completion [2] - The Longhua District has become a hub for the Mini PC industry, with leading companies contributing to a market share of 7%-9% globally and an average growth rate of nearly 60% [4] Group 2: Economic Growth and Industry Clusters - The high-end equipment and instrument industry cluster in Longhua ranks among the top in the city, with 307 industrial enterprises, including 186 specialized and innovative firms and 9 listed companies [3] - From January to November 2025, the cluster's output value reached 38.84 billion yuan (approximately 5.8 billion USD), reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.49% [3] - The low-altitude economy sector has seen significant growth, with 445 related enterprises and a total output value of 7.46 billion yuan (approximately 1.1 billion USD), marking a year-on-year increase of 37.6% [3] Group 3: Policy Support and Infrastructure Development - Longhua District has implemented various action plans to support industrial development, including plans for industrial mother machines, laser and additive manufacturing, and low-altitude economic innovation [5] - The district achieved a land preparation completion rate of 214.82%, successfully meeting annual assessment tasks and providing ample space for quality enterprises [5][6] - In 2025, Longhua confirmed the implementation of 14 urban renewal projects, driving an investment of 51 billion yuan (approximately 7.7 billion USD) into the implementation phase [6]
共赴新未来——回望安阳2025(下)
He Nan Ri Bao· 2025-12-29 23:11
Core Insights - Anyang is at a historical crossroads, showcasing a blend of tradition and modernity, with significant advancements in various industries, particularly in the drone sector and high-end manufacturing materials [1] - The city is set to continue its development journey, focusing on the construction of "one highland, one area, and three centers" [1] Group 1: Low-altitude Economy Development - The release of the "Guidelines for Urban Low-altitude Air Traffic Management" and the "Action Plan for Promoting High-quality Development of Low-altitude Economy (2025-2027)" establishes a solid institutional foundation for Anyang's low-altitude economy [2] - The city is implementing a series of supportive policies, including tax reductions and financial subsidies for aviation-related enterprises, to encourage increased R&D investment [2] - Infrastructure development is accelerating with the establishment of general airports and drone take-off and landing points, enhancing the low-altitude flight service guarantee system [2] Group 2: Industrial Transformation and Innovation - Anyang is focusing on breaking free from its reliance on traditional steel industries by fostering new productive forces through technological innovation and advanced manufacturing [5] - The city is enhancing the integration of industrial and innovation chains, aiming for a dual improvement in scale and quality of industrial clusters [5][6] - The rise of strategic emerging industries is reflected in the increase of their added value to 19%, showcasing the strengthening of Anyang's "intelligent manufacturing" framework [6] Group 3: Cultural and Historical Significance - The city celebrated the 60th anniversary of the Hongqi Canal, emphasizing the enduring spirit of self-reliance and hard work [7] - The 2025 China (Anyang) International Chinese Character Conference highlighted the cultural heritage of Anyang, attracting over 50 international guests to explore the mysteries of Chinese characters [7] - Anyang's commitment to cultural transmission is evident through immersive reporting and the creation of cultural products that resonate with its historical significance [7] Group 4: Achievements in Healthcare and Technology - The 10th Rehabilitation Equipment Expo showcased innovative products from leading domestic companies, such as Xiangyu Medical, highlighting Anyang's strength in intelligent manufacturing [4] - The city is witnessing a transformation in the healthcare sector with the introduction of smart rehabilitation devices and emergency drones, contributing to the overall development of the low-altitude economy [6][8]
工信部部署2026年十项重点工作 将培育一批重点行业智能体
Core Viewpoint - The national industrial and information technology conference emphasizes the need to consolidate the positive momentum of the industrial economy as the primary task for 2026, shifting focus from promoting stable growth to ensuring quality improvement [2][3]. Group 1: Industrial Economy - The conference highlights the importance of stabilizing the industrial economy, with expectations for telecommunications and software business revenues to grow by approximately 9% and 12% year-on-year, respectively, in 2025 [2]. - The shift in focus from "promoting stable growth" to "consolidating a positive momentum" reflects a deeper policy transition from stabilizing the economy to enhancing quality [2][3]. - The conference outlines ten key areas of focus for 2026, with the first being the consolidation of the industrial economy's positive momentum [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - The conference plans to increase the supply of green products, trendy products, and products for the elderly, responding to market demand trends [3]. - The emphasis on domestic demand as a priority aligns with the need for relevant supply to stimulate demand, indicating a policy shift towards domestic market strengthening [3]. Group 3: Technological Integration - The conference promotes the "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" initiative, aiming to cultivate key industry intelligent entities and original intelligent enterprises [4][5]. - The transition from "digital empowerment" to "intelligent empowerment" signifies a deeper integration of intelligent technologies into traditional industries, enhancing efficiency and value creation [6]. Group 4: Emerging Industries - The conference outlines plans to develop emerging pillar industries such as integrated circuits, new displays, new materials, aerospace, low-altitude economy, and biomedicine [8][9]. - The focus on these industries is seen as a strategic move to address key technological challenges and enhance new productive forces, aligning with national strategic needs [10]. Group 5: Quality Enterprises - The conference emphasizes the cultivation of high-quality enterprises, including "little giant" enterprises and manufacturing champions, while addressing issues of overdue payments to businesses [12]. - The goal is to enhance the service capabilities of the information and communication industry, with significant growth in 5G infrastructure, reaching 4.758 million base stations by the end of October 2025 [12]. Group 6: Low-altitude Economy - The conference highlights the low-altitude economy as a new growth point, with the introduction of frequency development guidelines to support the industry [13]. - This initiative aims to facilitate the commercial operation of low-altitude logistics and aerial tourism, ensuring resource allocation and regulatory clarity [13].
最新GDP排名来了,全国50强城市又变了,这个省会今年有点悬
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-29 18:01
Group 1 - The total GDP of the top 50 cities in China for the first three quarters of 2025 has surpassed 10,150 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 12% of the global GDP, indicating strong economic power [1][4] - The top three cities, Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen, maintain their positions, but the core drivers of growth have shifted [4][5][7][9] - The overall economic landscape shows a transition from scale expansion to quality improvement among leading cities, with a notable focus on innovation and industrial strength [11][34] Group 2 - Shanghai's GDP reached 40,721.17 billion yuan, growing by 5.5%, driven by key industries such as integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence [5] - Beijing's GDP totaled 38,415.9 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.6%, supported by a strong financial sector and a burgeoning digital economy [7] - Shenzhen's GDP increased to 27,896.44 billion yuan, with a remarkable 69.2% growth in new energy vehicle production, highlighting its emerging low-altitude economy [9] Group 3 - Nanjing's GDP stood at 14,059.49 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.2%, but faces challenges in meeting its 2025 target of exceeding 20 trillion yuan [13][15] - Ningbo surpassed Tianjin with a GDP of 13,492.91 billion yuan, leveraging its port advantages and manufacturing strength [17] - The competition among cities like Changsha and Wuxi reflects different development paths, with Changsha focusing on industrial chain capabilities [20] Group 4 - Fuzhou, Hefei, and Jinan have all crossed the 1 trillion yuan mark for the first time, showcasing their emerging economic strength [23][25] - Cities like Wenzhou, Xuzhou, and Dalian are on the verge of reaching the 1 trillion yuan milestone, indicating significant regional economic development [27][32] - The overall competition among cities is not just about numbers but also about industrial capabilities, innovation, and governance [34][40]
泰山区规划服务中心精准服务促进新型工业化项目高质量发展
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-12-29 14:17
为破解项目审批"流程长、环节多"难题,该中心深度融合"项目深化年"行政审批服务保障措施,创新推 出一系列高效服务模式,通过上门走访、现场勘查、线上指导等方式,精准解决规划审批中的难点堵 点。深入开展"一线工作法"服务模式,将规划咨询、方案审查等服务延伸至项目一线,实现"项目在哪 里,服务就跟进到哪里",真正让企业"少跑腿",促项目"快落地"。 通讯员 逯召强 韩长清 为确保新型工业化项目快速落地,泰安市自然资源和规划局泰山区规划服务中心始终坚持"靠前服务、 主动对接"工作理念,将服务端口前移至项目谋划阶段,以专业精准的规划服务助力项目早落地早建 设。 据了解,该中心在泰山区2025年下半年项目谋划会议上,针对空天信息、低空经济、工业母机等重点产 业项目,从规划符合性、选址合理性等方面提前研判,为项目落地筑牢规划基础。针对汶河空天信息产 业园、电子信息产业园等新质生产力代表项目,中心严格落实国土空间总体规划划定的工业控制线,优 先保障工业用地需求,确保产业发展空间稳定有序。 泰山区规划服务中心负责同志介绍,今年以来中心已完成电子信息产业园、智能制造产业园等多个产业 园区规划审批,为电子信息科技等新型工业化重点项 ...
乐山高新区光启低空经济产业链总部即将投入使用
Ke Ji Ri Bao· 2025-12-29 13:44
据了解,光启技术股份有限公司(以下简称光启技术)成立于2010年,是集"设计、制造、测试、批 产"一体化的全球超材料龙头企业,也是国内唯一一家将超材料技术应用于尖端装备领域的科技创新企 业。此次光启技术与乐山高新区合作,旨在依托光启的技术优势和乐山的产业基础,共同打造低空经济 产业链高地。 光启低空经济产业链总部位于高新·创智谷智汇楼A座,办公区域已配备齐全,涵盖了从研发、设计、生 产到交付的各个部门。乐山光启超材料技术有限公司副总经理张铮铮介绍:"在市委、市政府和高新区 的高度关注和支持下,光启低空产业链总部目前已经完成了建设工作,我们也在逐步地招聘技术研发人 员,然后正式入驻办公。" 目前,该项目已体现出强大的产业带动效应。总部已引入经纬达、天穹动力等5家核心配套企业,产业 链集群公司也多数完成相关基础建设,并逐步加快实现办公需求。同时,乐山高新区正积极谋划一批低 空经济产业链重点项目,涵盖低空经济领域基础设施、管理服务、科研创新、检验认证等方面,促进全 产业链闭环发展。 投入使用后,该总部将成为乐山新低空经济产业赋能中枢平台,高效整合全产业链资源,强化研发与乐 山106低空产业基地生产协同,强力支撑订单 ...