1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is bearish on the soda ash industry. The macro - negative factors combined with the weak fundamentals of soda ash are expected to lead to a short - term weak and fluctuating trend. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, and inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, with the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry not effectively improved [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures decreased by 1.04% to 1234 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased by 0.85% to 1160 yuan/ton, and the main basis decreased by 3.90% to - 74 yuan [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.3 Fundamentals - Supply - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process was - 89.25 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process was - 114.50 yuan/ton, showing a recovery from the historical low [14]. -开工 rate and output: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 88.41%, and the weekly output was 77.08 tons, with heavy soda ash at 42.87 tons, at a historical high [17][19]. - Capacity changes: From 2023 to 2025, there were significant expansions in soda ash capacity, with 640 tons in 2023, 180 tons in 2024, and a planned 750 tons in 2025 (100 tons actually put into production) [21]. 3.4 Fundamentals - Demand - Sales ratio: The weekly sales ratio of soda ash was 92.23% [24]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 16.13 tons, with an operating rate of 76.01% stabilizing; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continued to decline [27]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash factory inventory was 165.98 tons, an increase of 0.50% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. 3.7 Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: During the peak maintenance period this year, soda ash production is expected to decline [3]. - Bearish factors: High supply of soda ash, declining terminal demand, high inventory, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [5] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the chemical industry faces seasonal pressure due to the traditional off-peak period, with chemical product prices declining from high levels. However, strong demand in sub-sectors like agricultural chemicals supports performance [4][5] - The report highlights that the supply-side capital expenditure in the chemical sector is nearing its end, and policies aimed at reducing excess capacity are being intensified. This is expected to lead to a long-term upward trend in demand as oil prices stabilize and liquidity conditions improve [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Q3 2025 Performance Forecast - The average EPS for major chemical companies is projected at 0.25 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.93% and a slight quarter-on-quarter decline [4] - Key sectors expected to see significant year-on-year profit growth include pesticides, phosphate chemicals, potassium fertilizers, fluorochemicals, and semiconductor materials [4] Key Company Forecasts - Wanhua Chemical is expected to achieve a net profit of 3 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3% [4] - Yuntianhua is projected to reach 1.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20% [4] - The report also forecasts significant growth for companies in the fluorochemical sector, with Juhua expected to achieve 1.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 196% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the agricultural chemical chain, textile and apparel chain, export-related chemicals, and companies benefiting from policies aimed at reducing excess capacity [5] - Specific companies recommended for investment include Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, and Yunnan Tin for agricultural chemicals, and companies like Juhua and Sanmei for fluorochemicals [5]

Group 1 - The chemical sector showed a strong rebound on October 14, with the Chemical ETF (516020) initially rising by 1.68% before settling at a 0.13% increase at the time of reporting [1] - Key stocks in the sector, including pure soda, potash, phosphate fertilizers, and phosphate chemicals, saw significant gains, with companies like Hebang Bio and Yilong Co. rising over 5% [1] - The Chemical ETF (516020) attracted substantial investment, with a net inflow of 119 million yuan on the previous day and a total net subscription exceeding 200 million yuan over four consecutive trading days [1][3] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities highlighted stable demand in the basic chemical industry, with a focus on sub-industries such as sucralose, pesticides, MDI, and amino acids, while also noting the impact of domestic demand on mitigating tariff shocks [3] - Despite a 5.5% year-on-year decline in profits for the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry from January to August, certain products like hydrogen peroxide and hydrofluoric acid experienced price increases [3] - The Chemical ETF (516020) is currently at a relatively low price-to-book ratio of 2.36, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] Group 3 - Dongfang Securities indicated a positive long-term outlook for the petrochemical industry, suggesting that recent policy adjustments could lead to a new phase of high-quality development [4] - Zhongyuan Securities recommended focusing on sectors benefiting from supply-side improvements, such as pesticides and organic silicon, while also considering potassium and phosphate fertilizers in the context of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The Chemical ETF (516020) provides an efficient way to invest in the chemical sector, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trade friction disturbs the stock index, which opens lower but is expected to rebound after the initial decline, with the long - term upward trend remaining unchanged. The bond market influence is complex, and the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased allocation value when the interest rate rises above 1.8%. Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. Different commodities have different trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Affected by trade friction, the stock index opens lower. It is recommended to sell put options near MO2512 - P - 7000 to collect premiums [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the spot bond interest rate rises. The T2512 oscillation range may be between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is advisable to wait for oversold opportunities [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Due to the continuous fermentation of Sino - US trade friction concerns, precious metals reach new highs. It is recommended to buy gold at a light position above 910 yuan and maintain a long - silver strategy above 50 dollars [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: Given macro uncertainties, it is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Affected by Sino - US friction, steel prices are weakly sorted. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances weaken, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [3]. - **Coking Coal**: After the festival, coking coal prices have a phased correction. It is recommended to go short on coking coal 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1050 - 1200, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented before the festival, and there is limited room for further increases. It is recommended to go short on coke 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: With the easing of tariff concerns, copper prices are strongly running. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices and pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [3]. - **Alumina**: The market supply is sufficient, and the spot price continues to fall. The main operation range is 2850 - 3050 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment boosts the price center to around 21000, and the main reference range is 20700 - 21300 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The scrap aluminum quotation is firm, and the finished ingot price rises with the aluminum price. The main reference range is 20200 - 20800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals have limited support for prices, and zinc prices oscillate. The main reference range is 21500 - 22500 [3]. - **Tin**: With the repair of the macro - sentiment, tin prices rise slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectations are volatile, and the main reference range is 120000 - 126000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - risk increases, and the industrial demand is still insufficient. The main reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The macro - sentiment repair promotes the oil price rebound, but the loose fundamentals suppress the oil price. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis [3]. - **Urea**: The market trading sentiment improves, but the short - term rebound lacks fundamental support. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis and reduce the implied volatility at high prices on the option side [3]. - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the oil price support is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on PX11 and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the driving force is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on TA and pay attention to the support near 4500, and conduct rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and there is short - term support. It is recommended to increase the spread at low positions, but the driving force is limited [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, but the cost side is weak, and the short - term processing fee improves. The trading suggestions are the same as those for PTA, and the main processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ethanol**: The port inventory accumulates, and the supply - demand structure of MEG in the far - month is weak. It is recommended to short - sell EG01 at high prices, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 at high prices [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the short - term downstream demand for alumina is average. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **PVC**: The spot procurement enthusiasm is average, and the disk continues to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price driving force is limited. BZ2603 is expected to oscillate following benzene ethylene and the oil price in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the benzene ethylene price may be under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell on the rebound of EB11 and increase the spread at the low level of the EB - BZ spread [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support weakens, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. It is recommended to hold the seller of the call option BR2511 - C - 11400 [3]. - **LLDPE**: The disk price drops, and the arbitrage transaction is average. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The PDH profit is significantly repaired, and the transaction improves. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens significantly, and the transaction is acceptable. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between March and May [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Soybean and Related Products**: Affected by the changing Sino - US trade expectations, the supply pressure suppresses domestic prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of 01 near 2900 [3]. - **Live Pig**: The slaughter pressure of the breeding end is large, and the pig price remains low, showing a weak oscillating trend [3]. - **Corn**: As the supply increases, the disk price is under pressure and runs weakly [3]. - **Palm Oil**: Supported by the fundamentals, palm oil stops falling and recovers. The main short - term oscillation range may be between 9000 - 9500 [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is broad, and the raw sugar price drops sharply. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the short term [3]. - **Cotton**: With the new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure increases. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **Egg**: After the festival, the demand weakens, and it maintains a short - bias trend. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2511 contract at low prices and pay attention to the monthly spread reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The redness of late - Fuji apples is relatively light, and the high - quality apples have a significant price advantage. The main price runs near 8600 [3]. - **Jujube**: As the harvest time approaches, the long - short game intensifies, and it is bearish in the long - term [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the soda ash price runs weakly. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on the rebound [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The production and sales performance is average, and the logic of the off - peak season in the peak season continues. It is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to pay attention to the raw material price increase situation during the peak production season and wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply increases, and with cost support, the price oscillates between 8300 - 9000 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The supply increases, and polysilicon is under pressure. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices when the price returns to the lower edge of the range, and pay attention to the implementation of capacity storage [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is weak, the fundamentals maintain a tight balance, and the main price center is expected to be in the range of 7 - 7.5 million [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak, and the prices of finished steel products trended downwards. Although the direct impact of tariffs on steel is small, steel prices may decline in the context of a weakening commodity market. The current weak reality pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term, and attention should be paid to the policy strength during the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - For the black sector, the research team is not pessimistic. Instead of short - selling, it believes that finding callback positions to do long may be more cost - effective. The key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel Products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3083 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.64%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10910 tons, and the open interest increased by 26595 lots. The terminal demand dropped to a new low, inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased significantly [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3261 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.73%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 2058 tons, and the open interest increased by 24873 lots. The production decreased slightly, but the apparent demand decreased more significantly, and the inventory increase was prominent [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract (I2601) closed at 804.50 yuan/ton, up 1.19% (+9.50). The open interest increased by 9148 lots to 48.53 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 796 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.15 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.98% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. The daily average pig iron output was 241.54 million tons, down 0.27 million tons. The profitability of steel mills continued to decline. If the finished steel situation weakens after the holiday, the iron ore price may adjust accordingly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract (SM601) closed down 0.24% at 5746 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 124 yuan/ton over the futures. Its fundamentals are not ideal, and it is likely to follow the black sector [8][10]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract (SF511) closed down 0.55% at 5406 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 244 yuan/ton over the futures. Its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is also likely to follow the black sector [8][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract (SI2511) closed at 8805 yuan/ton, up 1.38% (+120). The open interest increased by 13950 lots to 429365 lots. The supply - demand situation has no immediate concerns, and the far - month contract valuation is expected to rise [12][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract (PS2511) closed at 48740 yuan/ton, down 0.46% (-225). The open interest decreased by 107 lots to 246615 lots. The market may enter a fundamental correction stage, and the price is under pressure in the short term [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The main contract closed at 1179 yuan/ton, down 2.32% (-28). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 346.9 million cases (+5.84%). The short - term price is expected to continue the stable and narrow - range oscillation pattern [18][19]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract closed at 1247 yuan/ton, up 0.56% (+7). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 5.99 million tons (+5.84%). The short - term market is expected to continue the stable and weak trend [20][21].

Report Date - The report is dated October 13, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views Steel - The current overseas macro - environment is under pressure. Whether the Sino - US trade negotiation can ease will be the core factor affecting asset prices. The overall situation is bearish, and asset prices may face pressure. With the weakening of steel fundamentals and the weakening support of iron ore, steel prices are more likely to decline. Short - term macro - level changes will have a higher impact than fundamental changes, and market volatility may increase [3] Iron Ore - In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore are under marginal pressure. Shipments are high, inventory is accumulating seasonally, downstream hot metal has support, but steel demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and profits are declining. The price is expected to rise first and then fall, still oscillating within a range [22] Coal and Coke - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of downstream finished products has deteriorated, the profitability of steel mills is under pressure, and the second round of coke price increase is difficult. In the medium - to - long term, under the policy constraints of "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection", the supply elasticity of coking coal in the fourth quarter is limited. The winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, which will support coal and coke prices. However, the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on whether the supply - demand balance sheet of the downstream steel can achieve a "soft landing" [34] Ferroalloys - There is a contradiction between high supply and weak demand in ferroalloys. The production of ferrosilicon remains high, while the production of silicomanganese has declined for many weeks. The cost support is challenged due to the continuous decline of coking coal prices [53] Soda Ash - Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, increasing the volatility of soda ash. The second - phase of Yuanxing has been ignited and is in the commissioning stage, and the long - term supply pressure of soda ash persists. The inventory of upstream alkali plants is starting to accumulate. The overall high inventory of the upper - and middle - reaches restricts the price of soda ash, but there is limited downward space due to cost support [64] Glass - The implementation of the coal - to - gas project in Shahe may be postponed to November. Glass production and sales are average, and the upstream inventory accumulation exceeds expectations. Some glass production lines still have the intention to ignite. The high inventory of the upper - and middle - reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price increase [89] Summary by Directory Steel Futures Prices - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3083, 3139, and 2986 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3261, 3274, and 3437 yuan/ton respectively [4] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3237 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton [8] Basis and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 137 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 59 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 182 yuan/ton [8][14] Iron Ore Futures Prices - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 804.5, 781, and 759 yuan/ton respectively [23] Fundamental Data - As of October 10, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 241.54 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 14024.5 tons, and the global iron ore shipment volume was 3207.5 tons [28] Coal and Coke Futures Prices and Basis - On October 13, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1200 yuan/ton, and the main coking coal basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 38.5 yuan/ton. The coke warehouse receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1583 yuan/ton, and the main coke basis (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was - 83.1 yuan/ton [39] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1530 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [40] Ferroalloys Ferrosilicon - On October 13, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 94 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon spot price in Ningxia was 5230 yuan/ton [54] Silicomanganese - On October 13, 2025, the silicomanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270 yuan/ton, and the silicomanganese spot price in Ningxia was 5600 yuan/ton [56] Soda Ash Futures Prices and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1336, 1406, and 1247 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 70 yuan/ton [65] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [68] Glass Futures Prices and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1313, 1392, and 1179 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 79 yuan/ton [89] Production and Sales - On October 10, 2025, the production - sales ratio of glass in Shahe was 61%, in Hubei was 82%, in East China was 82%, and in South China was 100% [90]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the soda ash futures continued to decline. The closing price of the main contract SA2601 dropped 1.20% compared to before the National Day holiday, reaching 1240 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1150 yuan/ton, down 1.71% from before the holiday. With ample supply, weak demand, and high inventory, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak. Considering the possible intensification of Sino - US tariff frictions, the short - term trend is expected to be mainly weak and volatile [3]. Summary by Directory Weekly Viewpoint - Futures and spot prices of soda ash declined last week. Supply is at a high level, with an expected weekly output of 770,000 tons and an operating rate of 89%. The second - phase project of Yuangxing Energy is expected to be put into production by the end of the year. Demand is weak due to supply disturbances in downstream float glass and the implementation of "anti - involution" in photovoltaic glass. Inventory is at a historically high level, with the national factory inventory of soda ash at 1.6598 million tons as of October 9, up 0.50% from the previous week [3]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Likely to be favorable**: The peak maintenance period within the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [5]. - **Likely to be unfavorable**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's output is at a historically high level. The production of heavy - soda downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, weakening the demand for soda ash. The positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [6][8]. Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [7]. Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1255 yuan/ton to 1240 yuan/ton, a drop of 1.20%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1170 yuan/ton to 1150 yuan/ton, a drop of 1.71%. The main basis increased from - 85 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.88% [9]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1150 yuan/ton, down 1.71% from the previous week [14]. Fundamentals - Supply - **Production profit**: The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process for heavy soda ash was - 89.25 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process was - 114.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [17]. - **Operating rate, production capacity, and output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 88.41%. The weekly output was 770,800 tons, including 428,700 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high. The weekly production heavy - soda ratio was 55.62% [20][22][25]. - **Changes in production capacity**: In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly added production capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [26]. Fundamentals - Demand - **Sales - to - production ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 92.23% [29]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 161,300 tons, and the operating rate was 76.01% and stable [32]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash factory inventory was 1.6598 million tons, up 0.50% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [39]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Data on the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate, are provided [40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In 2026, the decline in soda ash prices is mainly due to the continuous intensification of supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse, and prices may continue to oscillate weakly [3][4]. - For A - shares, the three major indices opened lower and closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing with a small negative line. The market is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level [8][9]. - For gold, the external gold price rose and then fell, and Shanghai gold adjusted accordingly. This adjustment is still benign, and it is advisable to buy on dips [12]. - For iron ore, the supply may be affected by long - term agreements and accidents in the short term, but there is an expectation of loose supply in the long term. The terminal situation has not improved after the holiday, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [15][16]. - For glass, the daily melting volume has little change, and inventory has accumulated during the holiday. The subsequent driving forces mainly lie in policy - end stimulus and anti - involution policies. Attention should be paid to the support near the integer mark [21]. - For soybean oil, affected by the strong rebound of external oils and fats during the holiday, the domestic oil market will have a catch - up increase after the holiday. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate and rebound following palm oil [23]. - For pulp, the price in Shandong remains stable. The export volume of major pulp - exporting countries has increased, and domestic port inventory remains high. It is recommended to short on rebounds [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash - Supply: The 2.8 - million - ton natural soda ash production capacity of Yuangxing Energy, the 700,000 - ton combined soda ash production capacity of Yuntu Yingcheng Xindu have been gradually released, and the 2 - million - ton production capacity of Hubei Jinjiang New Materials will be put into operation at the end of the year. The total new production capacity in the year reaches 5.5 million tons, and the total production capacity is approaching 47 million tons, with a year - on - year output increase of over 10%. As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.6598 million tons, a 3.74% increase from before the holiday [3]. - Demand: The demand for heavy soda ash is dragged down by the continuous decline in the demand for flat glass and the limited increase in soda ash consumption of photovoltaic glass. Although the demand for light soda ash is growing, the growth rate of its diverse downstream industries is limited, and the annual supply - demand gap of 4.5 million tons in the domestic market is difficult to digest [3]. A - shares - Market performance: The three major A - share indices opened lower and closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index almost turning positive in the morning but being suppressed by the continuous decline of the ChiNext and STAR Markets [9]. - Influencing factors: China's implementation of export controls on relevant items such as rare earths, super - hard materials, and lithium batteries, and the continuous farce of the US government shutdown [8]. - Market forecast: The market is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level [8]. Gold - Market performance: The external gold price rose and then fell, and Shanghai gold adjusted accordingly [12]. - Operation suggestion: This adjustment is still benign. As long as it does not break below the 5 - day moving average, it is considered strong, and it is advisable to buy on dips [12]. Iron Ore - Supply: In the short term, supply is affected by long - term agreement negotiations and accidents. In the long term, with the commissioning of the Simandou project, there is an expectation of loose supply [16]. - Demand: The terminal situation has not improved after the holiday, and molten iron production may decline periodically [15]. - Operation suggestion: The price is in a high - level wide - range oscillation range, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [15]. Glass - Supply and inventory: The daily melting volume has little change, and inventory has accumulated during the holiday [21]. - Driving forces: The subsequent driving forces mainly lie in policy - end stimulus and anti - involution policies [21]. - Technical analysis: The price rose and then fell today, and attention should be paid to the support near the integer mark [21]. Soybean Oil - Market influence: Affected by the strong rebound of external oils and fats during the holiday, the domestic oil market will have a catch - up increase after the holiday [23]. - Market trend: Indonesia's B50 plan will squeeze the export share of palm oil, increasing the premium of palm oil over soybean oil. The demand substitution effect between oils and fats is strong, and soybean oil is expected to oscillate and rebound following palm oil [23]. Pulp - Market performance: The pulp price in Shandong remains stable. The export volume of Brazilian pulp in September increased by 10% year - on - year, and domestic port inventory remains high. The "Golden September" peak season is not prosperous, and the pulp price oscillated and declined [26]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to short on rebounds [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The macro situation is bearish, and the fundamentals of soda ash are weak. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Sino-US trade frictions may intensify; the maintenance volume of soda ash plants is lower than expected, and the second phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. The overall supply is at a high level. The supply of downstream float glass is highly volatile, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high for the same period, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei is 1,150 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,240 yuan/ton, and the basis is -90 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 0.50% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average, which is bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The macro situation is bearish, and the fundamentals of soda ash are weak. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - **Bullish Factors**: During the peak maintenance period this year, the production is expected to decline [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. The risk points are that the cold repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is lower than expected, and the macro利好 is higher than expected [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous value. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.29% from the previous value. The main basis is -90 yuan, an increase of 5.88% from the previous value [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei is 1,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the ammonia-alkali method in North China is -89.25 yuan/ton, and the profit by the co-production method in East China is -114.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - **Operating Rate and Production Capacity**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 88.41%. The weekly production of soda ash is 770,800 tons, including 428,700 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [17][19]. - **Production Capacity Changes**: From 2023 to 2025, there has been a significant expansion of soda ash production capacity, with large-scale production plans each year. The total planned production capacity in 2023 is 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and 7.5 million tons in 2025, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 92.23% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 76.01%. The demand for soda ash from the downstream photovoltaic glass has weakened [27][5]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 0.50% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average [34]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The supply and demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows that the production capacity, production, import, export, and other data of soda ash have changed over the years, and the supply and demand gap also varies [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating weakly [3] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [3] Core Viewpoints - The glass and soda ash markets are both in a state of cautious waiting and oscillating weakly. The fundamentals of both are under pressure, with supply and demand contradictions remaining prominent. Attention should be paid to policy changes, supply dynamics, and downstream demand [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Glass - Price: The glass main contract 2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 1,207 yuan/ton on Friday. The weekly average price of the domestic float glass market was 1,263 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 85.17 yuan/ton [1][5] - Supply: Glass capacity utilization and output increased slightly, and the post-holiday supply was relatively stable [1] - Demand: The float glass market is in the traditional peak season, with stable shipments. After the holiday, the market is cautious, and purchases are mainly based on rigid demand [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.82 million heavy boxes, showing a significant increase. Continued attention should be paid to the inventory situation in October [1][33] - Supply and Demand Logic: Glass production is stable, and some production lines have been ignited. It is expected that production will continue to increase. The production and sales data weakened significantly during the holiday, and although there was a certain increase after the holiday, the overall situation remains weak. The glass price is at a relatively low level and is greatly affected by policies, but the weak fundamentals still strongly suppress the price [1] Market Analysis - Soda Ash - Price: The soda ash main contract 2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 1,240 yuan/ton on Friday. Some spot prices were lowered, and the spot-futures trading was good [1][5] - Supply: This week, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 88.41%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.76%. The output was 770,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.85%. Some enterprises had short shutdowns during the holiday, resulting in a decrease in supply [2][29] - Demand: Demand is relatively stable. With the decline in spot and futures prices, market transactions have increased, but overall supply-demand contradictions still exist [2][31] - Inventory: This week, the inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6598 million tons, a 3.74% increase from before the holiday, indicating inventory accumulation [2][33] - Supply and Demand Logic: The supply-demand contradiction in soda ash remains severe. The second phase of Yuanxing's project was successfully ignited, and the subsequent supply pressure of soda ash will further increase. Demand is still weak due to the decline in photovoltaic glass and float glass. In the short term, soda ash will maintain a weak operation [2] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [3] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3]