Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector has been significantly increased in holdings, with copper and gold seeing the most substantial increases in Q1 2025. The sector is currently in an "overweight" position, reflecting positive market sentiment and expectations for continued growth [2][3] - The report highlights a positive outlook for Q2 2025, driven by domestic macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting internal demand, which is expected to benefit the industrial metals sector, particularly aluminum [3][5] - The report identifies specific investment opportunities within the sector, recommending increased holdings in rare earth magnetic materials and companies with strong cost control and favorable customer structures in aluminum processing [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In Q1 2025, the non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the market, with a sector increase of 12.0%, ranking first among 28 major industries [5][12] - The sector's performance is attributed to global monetary policy shifts towards easing and enhanced expectations for domestic economic recovery [5][12] Sub-Sectors Performance - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals sector showed the best performance in Q1 2025, with gold and silver prices increasing by 36.4% and 32.6% year-on-year, respectively. The sector's net profit rose by 51.8% year-on-year [45][46] - **Base Metals**: Base metals, excluding nickel, saw price increases, with copper and aluminum prices rising by 11.3% and 7.4% year-on-year. The net profit for copper increased by 79.6% year-on-year [38][41] - **Rare Metals**: The rare metals sector is expected to benefit from supply constraints and increasing demand, particularly in the cobalt market, which has seen price increases due to supply disruptions [51][53] Holdings Situation - In Q1 2025, the overall holding ratio for the non-ferrous metals sector increased to 1.30%, up from 1.09% in Q4 2024, indicating a shift from underweight to a slight overweight position [56][57]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S.-China trade tariffs on various industries, particularly focusing on consumer electronics, kitchen appliances, industrial metals, and energy metals. Core Points and Arguments - **Tariff Elasticity and Profit Impact**: A static estimate indicates a tariff elasticity of 1.7, meaning a 10% increase in tariffs leads to a 17% decline in U.S.-China trade volume. This is used to assess the net profit impact across industries based on their revenue exposure to the U.S. market [1][4]. - **Overreaction in Stock Prices**: Industries such as consumer electronics, kitchen appliances, industrial metals, and energy metals have experienced significant stock price declines that exceed the actual net profit damage, indicating a need for valuation adjustments due to long-term revenue shortages [1][5]. - **Ongoing Risks Under Current Tariff Scenarios**: Maintaining the current 145% equivalent tariff or a worse scenario of 125% equivalent tariff plus a 20% offset could lead to continued risks of stock price declines across various sectors [1][6]. - **Impact of Tariff Increases**: Under the 232 investigation results, a 25% tariff (totaling 45%) will significantly affect kitchen appliances, industrial metals, and energy metals, while consumer electronics have been excluded from this category [1][7]. - **Potential for Negotiation Progress**: If U.S.-China negotiations yield positive results, tariffs could revert to a 54% level, allowing for some industries to rebound from their current depressed state [1][8]. - **Optimistic Scenario**: In the most favorable scenario, if the 125% equivalent tariff is removed and only a 20% anti-dumping tariff is applied without introducing new products subject to a 25% tariff, industries such as small appliances, kitchen appliances, consumer electronics, batteries, communication equipment, textile manufacturing, and certain industrial metal sectors could see significant recovery [1][9]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Long-term Opportunities**: The focus should also be on emerging export categories with low global penetration and potential for growth, such as automotive parts, shipbuilding, machinery, medical devices, and chemical products. Companies with sufficient overseas production capacity in these sectors are better positioned to withstand risks [2][10]. - **Traditional Advantage Industries**: Industries where China holds a significant share of global production and market power, such as fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), electronic components, and chemicals, are likely to maintain their competitive edge despite high tariffs due to supply chain and cost advantages [10].

境外业务收入持续增长。2024年，我国货物贸易出口规模再创新高，同比增长7.3%，实体上市公司境外业务 收入占营收比重达14.3%。高技术制造业出口亮点频现。通信、汽车、电子、计算机、生物医药行业的境外 业务收入同比增速在10%至30%之间。商品出口加速转向业务出海。2024年底，63.0%的上市公司积极布局海 外业务或产能。中国银河证券首席经济学家、研究院院长章俊认为，伴随着各项政策前置发力，中国经济稳 中向好的趋势持续巩固。 科技产业方兴未艾 AI技术革命持续深化，带动电子通信上下游维持高景气度。AI大模型技术日益成熟，带动全球半导体周期向 上修复。半导体、消费电子行业研发费用分别同比增长17.2%、8.0%，带动净利润分别同比增长13.2%、 12.9%，高居各行业前列。国内"人工智能+"行动持续推进，算力及终端应用需求快速增长。AI算力龙头企业 海光信息、浪潮信息净利润分别同比增长52.9%、28.5%，AI存储器公司兆易创新净利润同比增长584.2%，智 能穿戴领域的恒玄科技净利润同比增长272.5%。供给预期下降、下游消费电子需求增长带动铜、铝价格大 涨，工业金属行业净利润同比增长30.6%。工业 ...

Group 1 - Jinguang Electric won a bid for a State Grid procurement project worth 66.6956 million yuan, accounting for 8.97% of the company's projected 2024 revenue [1] - Yian Technology's biodegradable magnesium bone fixation screws received acceptance from the National Medical Products Administration [1] - East China Pharmaceutical's subsidiary received approval for clinical trials of HDM2005 for treating diffuse large B-cell lymphoma [1][2] Group 2 - New Hope reported April pig sales of 1.596 million heads, with revenue of 2.278 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.92% [3] - Yingfang Software received a government subsidy of 5.4 million yuan related to its earnings [4] - Hanyu Pharmaceutical's subsidiary's liraglutide raw material received acceptance from South Korea's MFDS [5] Group 3 - Tianshan Co. announced that its controlling shareholder pledged not to reduce holdings for 12 months [6] - Huaren Pharmaceutical's subsidiary obtained a medical device registration certificate for a disposable sliding mat [8] - Hanma Technology reported April truck sales of 1,127 units, a year-on-year increase of 56.96% [9] Group 4 - Huatai Co. successfully commissioned a 700,000-ton chemical wood pulp project [10] - Green Ecology's subsidiary won a bid for a tourism infrastructure project in Sanqingshan, with a bid amount of 238 million yuan [12] - Zhonghua Rock and Soil's subsidiary won a bid for the Urumqi Airport expansion project worth 181 million yuan [13] Group 5 - Aohua High-tech signed a contract for an optical system development worth 297 million yuan, representing 39.84% of its projected 2024 revenue [15] - Linglong Tire's controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake by 200 to 300 million yuan [17] - Tianbang Food reported April sales of 470,900 pigs, generating revenue of 691 million yuan [20] Group 6 - Weisheng Information won a project from State Grid Hebei Power Company worth 15.4587 million yuan [21] - Haon Automotive received a product designation letter from a leading new energy vehicle brand, with an estimated total revenue of 619 million yuan over the project's lifecycle [22] - Mingpu Optical Magnetic's subsidiary obtained a patent for an inductance testing machine [23] Group 7 - Dongni Electronics received a government subsidy of 3.82 million yuan, accounting for 33.17% of its projected 2024 net profit [24] - Xibu Animal Husbandry reported April fresh milk production of 3,024.95 tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.47% [25] - Jianke Intelligent obtained multiple patent certificates and an international trademark registration [26] Group 8 - Roman Co. won a bid for a 100MW photovoltaic power station project worth 403 million yuan [26] - Chenguang Biological obtained several patent certificates, including one in Europe [26] - Hengxing Technology's subsidiary received a government subsidy of 2 million yuan [27] Group 9 - Guanshi Technology's executives plan to reduce their holdings by a total of 359,400 shares [28] - Softcom Power's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 1% [29] - Fuchuang Precision's major shareholder plans to increase its stake by 120 to 240 million yuan [29] Group 10 - Laofengxiang's subsidiary signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Shanghai Jiushi Sports [31] - Xingye Silver Tin plans to issue up to 300 million USD in overseas bonds [32] - *ST Gongzhi faces delisting due to financial report issues [34]

资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样 本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 本文源自：金融界 从指数持仓来看，中证香港300资源指数十大权重分别为：中国海洋石油（30.06%）、中国石油股份 （12.61%）、紫金矿业（10.24%）、中国神华（9.93%）、中国石油化工股份（9.73%）、中国宏桥 （3.85%）、中煤能源（3.31%）、招金矿业（3.21%）、兖矿能源（2.66%）、洛阳钼业（2.42%）。 从中证香港300资源指数持仓的市场板块来看，香港证券交易所占比100.00%。 从中证香港300资源指数持仓样本的行业来看，石油与天然气占比52.82%、煤炭占比18.05%、贵金属占 比15.42%、工业金属占比10.09%、稀有金属占比3.18%、其他有色金属及合金占比0.44%。 金融界5月6日消息，上证指数高开高走，中 ...

有色金属与新材料 2025 年 5 月 5 日 有色金属与新材料周报 工业金属节前去库至低位，关注节后需求表现 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 24-04 24-07 24-10 25-01 25-04 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 | 陈潇榕 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060523110001 | | | chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn | 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 核心观点： 报 告 贵金属-黄金：美联储 6 月降息预期回落，黄金偏弱震荡。 截至 5.2， COMEX 金主力合约环比下跌 2.49%至 3247.4 美元/盎司。SPDR 黄 金 ETF环比下降 0.2%为 944.26 吨。4 月美国非农就业人数新增 17.7 万人；失业率 4.2%，与前值持平。4 月美国非农数据表现相对稳健， 市场对美联储 6 月降息预期回落，金价现震荡走弱。我们认为特朗普 政策反复带来的市场边际预期调整仍将持 ...

2025 年 5 月 5 日 有色金属与新材料周报 工业金属节前去库至低位，关注节后需求表现 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 24-04 24-07 24-10 25-01 25-04 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 有色金属与新材料 | 陈潇榕 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060523110001 | | | chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn | 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 核心观点： 贵金属-黄金：美联储 6 月降息预期回落，黄金偏弱震荡。 截至 5.2， COMEX 金主力合约环比下跌 2.49%至 3247.4 美元/盎司。SPDR 黄 金 ETF环比下降 0.2%为 944.26 吨。4 月美国非农就业人数新增 17.7 万人；失业率 4.2%，与前值持平。4 月美国非农数据表现相对稳健， 市场对美联储 6 月降息预期回落，金价现震荡走弱。我们认为特朗普 政策反复带来的市场边际预期调整仍将持续，且随 ...

证券分析师 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 05 月 05 日 金价回调不改长期趋势，铜铝去库 支撑价格 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20250428-20250502 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数下跌 0.49%，深证成指下跌 0.17%，沪深 300 下跌 0.43%，有色金属（申万）指数下跌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company reported a significant year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1 2025, achieving a net profit of 3.946 billion yuan, up 90.47% year-on-year, primarily due to rising copper prices and cost reductions from lean management [1][4]. - The production of copper and cobalt exceeded expectations, with copper production increasing by 15.65% year-on-year, and both metals achieving over 27% of their annual production targets by the end of Q1 2025 [2][4]. - The company announced the acquisition of Lumina Gold Company for 581 million Canadian dollars, adding a gold product to its diversified resource portfolio, with the Cangrejos gold mine being the core asset of this transaction [4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 46.006 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.25% year-on-year, while the comprehensive gross margin improved to 22.34%, up 9.55 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. - The average prices for copper and cobalt in Q1 2025 were 9,419.8 USD/ton and 11.8 USD/pound, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.3% for copper and a decrease of 12.4% for cobalt [2]. - The company forecasts net profits of 14.88 billion yuan, 16.03 billion yuan, and 18.06 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3, 9.6, and 8.5 times [4][6].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold - The short-term volatility of gold prices is expected to increase, while the medium to long-term outlook remains positive [2][6] - As of April 25, the COMEX gold futures contract decreased by 0.33% to $3,330.2 per ounce, and the SPDR Gold ETF fell by 0.6% to 946.27 tons [2][6] - Market expectations are being adjusted due to the fluctuating policies of Trump, which is likely to continue impacting gold prices [2][6] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Copper - As of April 25, the SHFE copper futures contract rose by 1.7% to 77,440 yuan per ton, with domestic copper social inventory at 181,700 tons, a decrease of 51,700 tons [3] - The market sentiment is recovering marginally, but remains relatively low due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies [3] - The demand for copper is expected to improve as domestic policies are implemented, with a tightening supply trend anticipated [3][6] Group 3: Industrial Metals - Aluminum - As of April 25, the SHFE aluminum futures contract increased by 1.7% to 20,030 yuan per ton, with domestic aluminum social inventory at 658,000 tons, down by 31,000 tons [4][5] - The traditional consumption peak season is approaching, leading to an increase in operating rates among downstream processing enterprises [5] - The aluminum price is expected to rise in the second quarter due to improved demand expectations from both domestic and overseas markets [5][6] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on gold, copper, and aluminum sectors, with specific recommendations for Chifeng Gold, Zijin Mining, and Tianshan Shares [6]