风险提示：海外流动性快速收紧；美国经济硬着陆风险；国际局势复杂化。 《策略|中观景气度高频跟踪及运用——中观景气度数据库和定量模型应 用》 晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|海外与外资周观察——港股能否重拾上涨动力？》 1、4 月初以来，恒生指数已实现较为可观的涨幅，但板块热度出现明显 分化。港股银行拥挤度从 3 月开始逐渐提升但斜率较缓，仍低于去年平均 水平，可以认为情绪尚未过热。恒生科技与港股创新药的拥挤度指标出现 分化，前者回落至去年平均水平，后者不断刷新近年高位。新消费板块中， 以泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪集团为代表的成分股也出现拥挤度中枢明显 上移的情形。2、港股需要保持较高的涨幅集中度，指数才有可能实现高 收益。因此需要观察资金是否回流阿里、小米、腾讯等权重股上，但从港 股通持股量看，南向资金更多表现为逆向投资（"涨卖跌买"），当前左侧 押注意愿并不强烈。3、投资意见方面，当前板块轮动的难度正在加大， 同时海外地缘冲突扰动、内部流动性收紧的压力也在上升，建议对港股后 续走势保持谨慎，等待资金面与情绪面出现一定缓解后择机介入，方向上 坚持杠铃配置，一方面港股银行板块仍然存在溢价压缩空间，另一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market has entered a new adjustment phase since June 13, with the banking sector showing resilience while new consumption stocks face significant declines [1][2]. Market Performance - The A-share banking sector has risen nearly 4% over six days, ranking first among all industries, and has been on an upward trend for two and a half years, nearing the peak of the 2007 bull market [1]. - The overall market turnover has decreased significantly, with recent trading days seeing around 1.1 trillion yuan, down from 1.5 trillion yuan [1]. New Consumption Sector - The new consumption sector has experienced a sharp decline since June 5, with leading companies like Zhongchong Co. and Chaohongji seeing drops exceeding 20% [2]. - The market's previous optimism around new consumption stocks has been undermined by a lack of fundamental support and high valuations, leading to a prolonged adjustment phase [6]. Economic Indicators - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that retail sales in May grew by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations, with the "trade-in" category growing by 34% [3]. - The strong retail sales data suggests that the need for stimulus measures may diminish, impacting the outlook for new consumption stocks [3]. Liquidity Conditions - There are signs of tightening liquidity in Hong Kong, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervening to manage currency fluctuations, which could affect the performance of Hong Kong stocks [5]. - The previous liquidity support that fueled the rise of new consumption stocks is reversing, contributing to the sector's decline [5]. Investment Shifts - Investors initially expected to shift from new consumption stocks to technology stocks, but this has not materialized due to overall market conditions and low trading volumes [7]. - The banking sector is expected to remain a safe haven for investors, with significant interest from institutional players [16]. Sector Analysis - The A-share market's dividend sectors are categorized into four main areas: resource, financial, natural monopoly, and broad consumption [8]. - The oil sector has seen a recent surge, with Brent crude oil prices rising nearly 20% since June 11, but concerns about geopolitical tensions may lead to volatility [9][10]. - The coal sector has underperformed, with a 12% decline this year due to falling prices and weak demand from the real estate sector [14]. Strategic Outlook - Given the current market conditions, a conservative approach is recommended, with a focus on reducing positions and waiting for better opportunities [19]. - The banking sector is highlighted as a potential area for investment, despite its declining fundamentals, due to the support from state-owned entities [16].

Group 1 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has negatively impacted risk appetite, leading to a narrow range of market fluctuations and a decrease in trading volume to around one trillion [2][16] - The banking index has risen significantly, with multiple bank stocks reaching historical highs, while sectors like stablecoins and oil and gas have performed well [2][16] - The AI and robotics sectors, which had previously experienced declines, showed slight rebounds, while the innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption sectors faced significant adjustments [2][16] Group 2 - There is a divergence in the performance of banks and micro-cap stocks, with banks continuing to rise while micro-cap stocks have adjusted downwards due to various factors, including stable policy expectations and upcoming mid-year earnings reports [17] - The AH share premium rate has rebounded to 130 points, correlating with the US dollar index, indicating international capital flows favoring Hong Kong stocks [18] - The sentiment in the liquor sector has improved due to policy guidance, although long-term challenges such as demographic changes and evolving consumer preferences remain [19] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that the Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETF will be included in the fund advisory configuration range, aiming to enhance the board's demonstration effect and promote broader institutional breakthroughs [20] - The active equity fund indices showed varied performance, with the active stock fund index down 1.63% last week but achieving a cumulative excess return of 12.23% since inception [5][21] - The healthcare sector index experienced a significant decline of 6.82% last week, but it has recorded a cumulative excess return of 19.96% since inception [9][21]

6月23日，港股三大指数集体反弹。截至收盘，恒生指数涨0.67%，国企指数涨0.82%，恒生科技指数涨 1.05%。 涨幅靠前还有医药股，生物医药股、医美概念、创新药概念、医药外包概念股等纷纷冲高。其中，君实 生物（01877.HK）涨8.09%，荣昌生物（09995.HK）涨6.73%，百济神州（06160.HK）涨6.18%，康方 生物（09926.HK）涨4.27%，三生制药（01530.HK）涨5.29%，医思健康（02138.HK）涨5.36%，泰格 医药（03347.HK）涨2.49%。 分板块看，芯片股涨幅居前。华虹半导体（01347.HK）涨4.43%，中芯国际（00981.HK）涨4.56%，晶 门半导体（02878.HK）涨3.53%，上海复旦（01385.HK）涨1.58%。 消息面上，有消息称美商务部计划撤销台积电、三星、SK海力士在华使用美国技术的豁免政策，要求 这些企业今后需逐案申请许可证。美商务部官员称此举旨在限制美国关键技术流向中国，但遭到美国国 防部等部门反对。 机构称，近年来外部环境对中国半导体产业限制不断加剧，国产替代有望加速推进，国内半导体产业链 国产化率较低的环节有望 ...

今日，恒生指数涨0.67%，国企指数、恒生科技指数涨0.82%及1.05%。 此外，今日三只新股上市，药捷安康-B大涨78.7%，佰泽医疗涨超42%，三花智控低开高走微幅收跌。 具体来看： 半导体板块涨幅居前，宏光半导体涨超7%，华虹半导体、中芯国际、脑洞科技涨超4%，晶门半导体涨超3%，上海复旦涨超1%。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 800000 | 恒生指数 | 0 | 23689.13 | +158.65 | 0.67% | | 800100 | 国正指数 | | 8597.36 | +70.29 | 0.82% | | 800700 | 恒生科技指数 | | 5187.01 | +53.87 | 1.05% | 盘面上，大型科技股多数由跌转涨，美团、快手涨超2%，小米涨1.48%，百度、网易飘红，腾讯、京东、阿里巴巴小幅下跌。 美拟取消芯片设备豁免，半导体芯片股全天表现强势，宏光半导体涨近8%，龙头中芯国际涨4.56%。 生物医药股午后拉升明显，君实生物大涨8%，荣昌生物、百济神州涨超6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) experienced a low opening but rallied to close approximately 0.7% higher, driven by strong performance in the semiconductor sector and a rebound in the pharmaceutical sector [1] Market Performance - The HSI closed at 23,689.13 points, up 0.67%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.05% to 5,187.01 points [1] - The total market turnover reached 1,985.91 million HKD, a decrease from the previous trading day's turnover of 2,224.23 million HKD [1] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector led the market with significant gains, while the pharmaceutical sector showed a strong rebound [1] - New consumption and automotive sectors also experienced a low opening but managed to recover throughout the day [1] Notable Stocks - Semiconductor company SMIC (00981.HK) saw a rise of 4.56% [1] - Li Auto (02015.HK) increased by 5.49% [1] - Pharmaceutical company Jiateng Pharmaceutical (02617.HK) surged by 78.71% [1] - Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050.HK) experienced a slight decline of 0.13% on its first trading day [1]

2025年上半年即将收官。展望下半年市场，基金经理对整体投资机会有何预期？哪些领域更 值得布局？影响股市行情的核心因素有哪些？ 中国基金报采访了七位绩优公募基金经理，分别为 招商基金投资管理一部总监李崟，兴业基 金权益投资部总经理邹慧，永赢基金权益研究部总经理、永赢惠添益基金经理王乾，诺安基 金研究部总经理邓心怡，长城基金国际业务部副总经理、长城港股通价值精选基金经理曲少 杰，平安医药精选股票基金经理周思聪和信澳领先增长基金经理齐兴方 。 整体看，他们对后市较为乐观，认为A股市场整体估值水平仍处在历史偏低位置，货币政策和 财政政策处于"双宽松"阶段，为A股市场向好提供重要支撑；预计下半年市场有望震荡向上， 看好大健康、新消费、科技创新等领域。 中国资产仍具备较强吸引力 中国基金报：对2025年下半年的A股市场怎么看？市场拐点有望在何时出现？ 李崟： 目前市场的估值水平仍处在历史偏低位置，同时宏观处于货币政策与财政政策"双宽 松"阶段，为A股市场向好提供重要支撑。 王乾： 预计下半年市场整体或保持区间震荡，重点关注贸易政策、逆周期调节等因素的影 响。考虑到政策资金托底意愿较强，预计市场整体走势较为平稳，结构性行 ...

Group 1 - The core concept of new consumption is evolving, with products like Labubu toys and high-end gold jewelry gaining popularity among younger consumers, leading to significant stock price increases for companies like Laopu Gold and Pop Mart [2][5] - The market has seen a shift in public fund holdings, with a notable increase in the number of funds investing in new consumption stocks, particularly Laopu Gold and Pop Mart, indicating growing recognition of their potential [3][4] - The new consumption sector has achieved a total market value exceeding 710 billion HKD, despite ongoing debates about its sustainability [3][5] Group 2 - The transformation in consumer behavior reflects a shift from material wealth to experiential satisfaction, with consumers prioritizing quality and emotional value over brand prestige [6][7] - New consumption brands are focusing on product quality and emotional resonance, moving away from traditional marketing strategies, which has led to a redefined relationship between consumers and brands [7][8] - Structural changes in the economy are driving the growth of new consumption, as traditional sectors face stagnation, creating opportunities for innovative products that cater to the needs of the Z generation [9][10] Group 3 - Investment strategies in the new consumption sector should focus on companies that align with current trends and consumer psychology, emphasizing brand strength and innovation [11][12] - The potential for significant growth exists in the new consumption space, despite short-term overheating risks, as many companies are still in the early to mid-growth stages [11][12] - The unique characteristics of new consumption markets suggest that opportunities for substantial growth may arise from unexpected breakthroughs, necessitating a nuanced understanding of consumer preferences [12]

Market Review - The market showed a downward trend this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index struggling to maintain the psychological level of 3400 points, indicating potential difficulty in sustaining this level without significant trading volume [2] - The micro-cap stock index formed a high-level doji, suggesting caution towards small micro-cap stocks [2] - The Hong Kong stock market formed a long upper shadow on the weekly chart, with the A/H premium reaching a new low, indicating a higher probability of a pullback in Hong Kong stocks or an increase in A-shares to return to a normal range [2] - A short-term head has formed, necessitating vigilance and partial position control, with the 20-week moving average serving as a key support level [2] Sector Analysis - There has been a noticeable acceleration in sector rotation, with over half of the sectors showing movement recently, including anti-tariff, military, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, gaming media, CPO, oil and gas, and precious metals [3] - The trend is weak when sectors retreat, emphasizing the need for quick entry and exit strategies and active sector switching when trends reverse [3] Future Focus - Among various broad indices, the STAR Market has performed the weakest, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, computing power, and robotics, which have been in a weak adjustment trend since March [4] - Financial policies, such as the introduction of growth tiers in the STAR Market and the upcoming listing of new stocks with STAR attributes, may boost interest in semiconductor and technology stocks, although this may take time and requires accompanying trading volume [4] - A defensive approach is recommended before taking offensive positions [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the Chinese stock market, particularly A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with emphasis on technology and emerging industries [1][4][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **De-dollarization Trend**: Global funds are shifting away from the US dollar, leading to increased investment in Chinese markets, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][4] - **Policy Reforms**: Since September 2024, China's policy reforms and collaboration with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange have accelerated capital market reforms, particularly benefiting technology and emerging industries [1][4] - **Investment Opportunities**: PCB (Printed Circuit Board) and overseas computing power are highlighted as key investment areas, with a focus on "leading, localization, and globalization" as future development directions [1][5] - **Economic Challenges and Opportunities**: Current economic challenges include macroeconomic pressures and poor trade data, but long-term opportunities exist in new consumption and technology sectors [2] - **Profitability Concentration**: The trend of leading companies gaining market share is evident, especially in industries like machinery, public utilities, and transportation, where capacity utilization is high [3][17] - **Domestic and Foreign Capital**: Both foreign and domestic capital are crucial for driving equity asset growth, with foreign capital holdings exceeding 3 trillion yuan and domestic capital increasingly influencing pricing in Hong Kong stocks [12][13] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Globalization Impact**: Young leaders (born in the 80s and 90s) are more inclined to implement globalization strategies, leading to sustained growth in overseas revenues for their companies [3][30][31] - **Sector-Specific Trends**: Significant progress in domestic substitution rates in sectors like carbon fiber, special gases, and industrial robots, indicating a steady advancement in localization efforts [8][23] - **Emerging Market Influence**: Emerging markets are becoming significant drivers of Chinese exports, with countries like Indonesia and Saudi Arabia increasing their reliance on Chinese imports [26] - **ETF Influence**: ETFs have become a major source of incremental funds in the A-share market, with significant purchases observed since September 2024 [15][16] - **Traditional vs. New Materials**: Traditional industries and new material sectors are both showing strong potential for overseas expansion, with specific companies highlighted for their performance [28][29] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, focusing on the Chinese stock market's dynamics, investment opportunities, and the impact of globalization and domestic policies.