每周一景： 湖南永州九嶷山风景名胜区 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【金工】短期利空因素影响有限 从4月中旬至今A股处于反弹的趋势中，而6-13在地缘的利空因素影响下出现单日放量下跌，万得微盘股指 数和北证50下跌幅度较大。 尽管市场短期回落但本轮反弹过程中，场内融资余额并未发生显著上涨，风险 指数显示当前A股主要指数所隐含的风险并未处于高位，我们认为短期利空因素所引发的调整幅度有限。 >>以上内容节选自国泰海通证券6月16日已经发布的研究报告 ： 短期利空因素影响有限 具体分析内容（包括风险提示等） 请详见完 整版 报告。 【美护】新消费时代——化妆品行业跟踪报告 看好美护板块引领新消费，零食品类裂变与新渠道共振。 新消费核心在产品焕新营造情绪价值消费。 我们认为，与2016-2021的流量红利驱动下的新消费浪潮不 同，本轮新消费更多体现在渠道红利消失后结构性的产品焕新，典型如美妆领域重组胶原成分持续迭代， 日化领域功能及情绪价值升级（如绽家香氛洗衣液，冷酸灵医研牙膏修复牙釉质），零食魔芋品类健康低 卡大受欢迎。我们认为，随中国经济增长、居民物质需求日益满足，情绪消费开始爆发，满足更细分、更 进阶需求的特色产 ...

Group 1: Lemon Price Surge - The price of lemons has surged significantly, with yellow lemons priced between 7.5-10 yuan per jin, nearly tripling from the previous low of 3-4 yuan per jin [1] - The increase in lemon prices has directly impacted downstream tea beverage franchisees, with varying effects depending on the size of the franchise [1] - Larger brands like Mixue Ice City and Gu Ming have their own lemon production bases, mitigating the impact of price increases, while smaller brands face significant cost pressures [1] Group 2: Milk Tea Industry Growth - The number of milk tea-related enterprises in China has surged by 140% over the past five years, nearing 400,000, contributing to a market exceeding 350 billion yuan [2] - The primary consumer demographic for milk tea is the post-95 and post-00 generations, accounting for over 60% of market share, with 20-30 year-olds making up 59% [2] - Shenzhen leads in the number of milk tea shops, with 13,804 locations, followed by Guangzhou and Chongqing [2] Group 3: Nestlé and Eastern Airlines Collaboration - Nestlé and China Eastern Airlines have launched a co-branded "Yunnan Single Origin Drip Coffee" as part of their 15-year partnership [3] - The collaboration coincides with the launch of a new direct flight route from Shanghai to Geneva, enhancing cultural trade and cooperation [3] - Nestlé has been involved in the Yunnan coffee industry since 1988, supporting local farmers and achieving 100% 4C certification for its coffee beans [3] Group 4: IFBH Limited's IPO Progress - IFBH Limited, the parent company of the coconut water brand "if," has passed the listing hearing with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange just two months after submitting its prospectus [4] - IFBH has dominated the coconut water market in China since 2020, holding a market share of approximately 34% in 2024 [5] - The company's revenue for 2023 and 2024 is projected at $87.44 million and $158 million, respectively, with net profits of $16.75 million and $33.32 million [5] Group 5: Gu Ming's Market Position - Gu Ming is recognized as a leading brand in the ready-to-drink tea market, with a market share of 17.7% in 2023 [6] - The company employs a regional expansion strategy and a franchise system to capture the lower-tier market, with 78.8% of its stores located in second-tier cities and below [6] - Gu Ming's self-built supply chain and product innovation are expected to create competitive advantages, with projected net profits of 2 billion yuan in 2025 [6]

「钛赞了」为钛媒体APP旗下「钛度号」推出的优秀作品评选榜单，每月根据站内文章的人气热度、钛 （态）度观点、内容质量等多维数据，并结合编辑推荐，评选出上月优秀作品。钛媒体APP将给予上榜 作品专属站内外推荐资源，以鼓励更多优质作品的持续产出。 本榜单将在钛媒体APP、网站、微信社群等渠道同步发布，月榜也将成为每年年底"钛媒体年度作者"评 选的重要参考。 2025年5月1日—2025年5月31日，「钛赞了」榜单第127期上榜作品为： 【TOP 1】 @ 脑极体 获奖作品： 迁徙：微信鸿蒙版的长征 "正如长征为新中国奠定了基础，微信与鸿蒙合力为国 产系统生态开辟了新版图，完成了看似不可能完成的事情，其难度与意义都堪称互联网史上 的一次长征。我们就从最具悬疑感的一幕，进入微信鸿蒙版的故事。" 钛度推荐：国产系统 生态，真的成了 【TOP 2】 @ 电厂 获奖作品： 为什么比亚迪突然再打价格战？ "缓解比亚迪债务压力另外一个有效办法就是维 持销量的快速增长，形成'高负债维持高研发投入、高市场分额增长；高市场份额增长支撑 高负债结构'的循环。正因为如此，比亚迪在销量增长上不容有失。" 钛度推荐：在高端品 牌遇阻的情况下 ...

以下文章来源于姚兰 Yvonne ，作者姚兰 姚兰 Yvonne . 95后作者，写消费品牌和消费投资机构，有商业和青年文化 这是新消费智库第 2 6 5 4 期文章 新消费导读 一声"Goodme"，正是对自己最有力的肯定。 作者 ：姚兰 编辑：竺天 审核： Single 来源：姚兰 Yvon n e 一代人有一代人的 "破烂"，Z世代痴迷于收集LABUBU，也热衷于收集好看的奶茶杯。 奶茶品牌在抖音开演唱会？ 去年 10月，我曾写到，ZIMOMO（LABUBU家族的首领）人偶的舞蹈视频在网络上疯传，是LABUBU出圈的原因之一。"动作清晰有力， 还会揉肚子，气血很足。""一看就是第一天上班。""谁再说自己的爱豆因为服装吃动作，就把这个给他看。". . . . . .抖音上遍地锐评。 LABUBU能够拿捏孤独的成年人，怎可忽略洗脑神曲《LABUBU之歌》？这首歌的歌词仅由一个英文单词LABUBU构成，在小红书上，有人 称歌词写得好，另一位天赋型选手对此来劲儿了："给你也写一首，momo momomomo momo momomo mo mo mo momo。" 去年下半年，我多次写到，奶茶的品牌就是它的包材， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth of Pop Mart, particularly its The Monsters series, which achieved sales exceeding 3.04 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 726.6% and surpassing the MOLLY series to become the most profitable IP for the company [1][5][19] - The recent surge in new consumption trends is attributed to the Z generation (born between 1995 and 2009), who represent 19% of China's population but account for 40% of total consumption power, indicating a strong willingness to spend on non-essential items like collectibles [5][19] - The consumption behavior of the Z generation reflects a shift towards emotional and social value, prioritizing identity and belonging over traditional material needs, which has led to a rise in products that cater to these desires, such as blind boxes and trendy toys [4][9][10] Group 2 - The Z generation's average disposable income reached 3,501 yuan in 2020, significantly higher than the national average of 2,682 yuan, enabling them to spend more on personal interests and emotional fulfillment [5][6] - The articles discuss the emergence of a "circle culture" among the Z generation, where purchasing items like blind boxes serves as a ticket to join specific social groups, enhancing their sense of belonging and identity [11][19] - Pop Mart's high gross margin of 63.9% in mainland China, along with the popularity of its products in the second-hand market, demonstrates the brand's ability to create high-value items that resonate with consumers' emotional and social needs [15][19]

风险提示 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 教育：K12 教培行业高景气维持，地方成建制连锁品牌仍然稀缺，看好存量头部机构持续扩大市场份额。 奢侈品：宏观经济影响奢侈品销售表现，景气略有承压，但部分抓住需求趋势的品牌表现突出，建议关注。 咖啡茶饮：行业景气度稳健向上，京东近期减少中小商家外卖补贴力度，关注平台补贴节奏变化对行业影响。 OTA：行业景气度稳健向上，旅游大盘稳健增长，OTA 渠道价值依旧不容忽视，携程海外业务"招兵买马"加速扩 张。 电商：电商大盘景气略有承压，阿里/京东/美团在电商&外卖&即时零售上的竞争依旧持续，近期部分地区国补暂 停;电商平台依旧处于"618"活动大促期，关注大促收官平台表现。 流媒体平台：音乐流媒体平台为内需相关的优质互联网资产，规模效应持续驱动盈利杠杆释放，行业高景气度维 持，我们建议持续关注音乐订阅平台。本周 TME 拟全资收购喜马拉雅，音乐和长音频形成用户和内容互补。 虚拟资产&资产交易平台：本周《Genius 法案》通过美参议 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of Labubu, a product from Pop Mart, highlighting its marketing strategies and the cultural phenomena surrounding it, while also drawing parallels to past trends in collectible items and the potential risks associated with its financialization. Group 1: Product and Marketing Success - Labubu's popularity surged due to endorsements from high-profile celebrities like Lisa from BLACKPINK, which resonated with the existing toy culture in Thailand and Southeast Asia [15][17] - The strategic placement of Pop Mart stores in prime locations, such as next to luxury brands like LV, enhanced Labubu's market presence and appeal [17] - The viral nature of unboxing videos on TikTok contributed significantly to Labubu's popularity, creating a compelling short video content that attracted more consumers [17] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Psychological Factors - The success of Labubu can be attributed to the elements of uncertain rewards and the Zeigarnik effect, which drive consumer engagement and desire for completion [24][31] - The high social and emotional value associated with collectible items like Labubu enhances their appeal, making them more than just products but also status symbols [33][35] Group 3: Financialization and Market Risks - Labubu's high resale value in the secondary market has led to its perception as a financial product, raising concerns about the sustainability of its value [38][40] - The article warns that as Labubu transitions from a collectible to a financial asset, it may face similar pitfalls as past trends in collectibles, such as the君子兰 phenomenon, where initial hype led to significant market corrections [44][53] Group 4: Company Leadership and Vision - Wang Ning, the founder of Pop Mart, has seen significant personal financial success, with his wealth increasing over tenfold since March 2024, reflecting the company's stock performance [55] - His past experiences and responses to skepticism during the company's early days demonstrate a strong vision and commitment to building a brand in a competitive market [57]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of shopping malls in China, highlighting the shift from traditional cosmetics brands to new categories such as trendy toys, outdoor sports, and tea beverage brands, referred to as the "Four Kings" of modern retail [6][11][12]. Group 1: Transformation of Retail Landscape - The flagship store of Innisfree, a Korean beauty brand, has been replaced by Pop Mart, a trendy toy company, symbolizing a broader trend in retail [6][8]. - The "Four Kings" now dominating mall spaces include trendy toys, outdoor sports, new energy vehicles, and diverse tea brands, reflecting changing consumer preferences [8][11]. - The vacancy rate in shopping malls has approached 14% in major cities, providing an opportunity for the "Four Kings" to establish a presence [11]. Group 2: Decline of Traditional Brands - The number of cosmetic counters in China has decreased from 15,415 in 2020 to 11,365 in 2022, with low-end cosmetics experiencing the most significant decline [11][12]. - High-end cosmetic brands like Chanel and Lancôme continue to maintain their presence in malls despite overall declines in sales [12][14]. Group 3: New Entrants and Market Dynamics - New energy vehicle brands have become prominent in malls, with Tesla being a pioneer in this space, shifting the focus from traditional car dealerships to experiential retail [18][19]. - The tea beverage market has seen rapid changes, with brands like Nayuki and Heytea adapting to consumer preferences, while others like Tiger Sugar have exited the market [22][24]. Group 4: Future Trends and Opportunities - The article notes that while the "Four Kings" dominate, there are still opportunities for emerging brands like Mao Geping, which has expanded rapidly in the offline market [32][35]. - The future of retail remains uncertain, with the potential for new categories to emerge and replace existing ones, indicating a dynamic and evolving market landscape [36].

Core Insights - The new tea beverage market is entering a "preparation period" ahead of the Dragon Boat Festival and summer season, with a significant decrease in new store openings in May 2025 compared to previous months and the same period last year [1][4]. Store Opening Trends - In May 2025, 26 new tea beverage brands opened a total of 2016 stores, a decrease of 38.87% month-on-month and 47.18% year-on-year [1][3]. - The total number of stores in the industry reached 113,281, with an increase of 1,029 stores compared to April [1]. - Major brands like Mixue Ice City opened 743 new stores in May, although this was a decrease of approximately 865 stores from April [4]. Brand Performance - Mixue Ice City remains the leader in store openings, followed by Gu Ming with 305 new stores, marking a year-on-year increase of 36.16% [4][7]. - Other brands such as Bawang Chaji and Yihe Tang also showed stable performance with 117 and 94 new stores respectively [4][8]. - Brands like Hey Tea and Nayuki continued to open stores at a slow pace, with only 9 and 4 new stores in May [4][7]. Product Development and Marketing - In May, 26 brands launched approximately 105 new SKUs, an increase of 17 from April, indicating a focus on product innovation [8][11]. - The most popular new product ingredients included peach and bayberry, with several brands introducing related products [11]. - Marketing strategies are shifting from collaboration-driven promotions to influencer marketing, with 7 brands engaging in celebrity or KOL partnerships in May [12]. Industry Dynamics - The industry is experiencing a more differentiated expansion among leading brands, with Gu Ming entering the "10,000 store club" [7]. - Tea Baidao is facing store contraction despite opening 70 new stores, with a net decrease of 104 stores compared to April [7]. - The overall marketing approach is transitioning from heavy reliance on collaborations to a more refined focus on direct sales impact and private domain traffic [12].

进入中国市场25年来，主力产品首次降价，这对星巴克来说不是容易的决定。 面对快速增长的非咖市场，星巴克中国宣布自6月10日起，星冰乐、冰摇茶、茶拿铁三大系列共10款产品降价，以大杯规格计算，平均每杯降价5元。 2024年，星巴克新任CEO布莱恩·尼科尔（Brian Niccol）就曾表示，星巴克需要回归其可以让人们悠闲逗留的咖啡店的本源，同时重新思考定价问题。 思考了近1年后，降价终于落地中国市场。在是否降价这个问题上，星巴克中国近两年是纠结的。虽做过谨慎尝试，如通过发放优惠券间接降价，但这些尝 试似乎总是浅尝辄止。在竞争过于激烈的中国咖啡市场，即使不是从打价格战的角度出发，战略层面的反复横跳也绝非明智之举。从这个意义上说，星巴克 此次"实打实"降价的最大考验就在于战略的可持续性。 从这些层面看，降价应该不是星巴克针对中国咖啡市场价格战的短期回应。星巴克中国仍需要回答一些更根本的问题：作为市场的教育者，如何在消费者逐 渐成熟、本土竞争者崛起的时候仍能保持领先？星巴克又将如何定义"领先"？ 此外，当前这个时间节点也很微妙，除了在冰饮畅销季提升相关非咖产品市场竞争力的考虑，此时降价或许还与此前市场频繁传闻的星巴克 ...