Group 1: Soybean Market Overview - CBOT soybean futures declined due to light trading post-holiday and competition from Brazilian soybeans, with March soybean settling at $10.45-3/4 per bushel, the lowest since October 23 [1] - March soybean meal futures fell by $3.40, closing at $296.00 per short ton, while March soybean oil futures increased by $0.74, settling at $0.4930 per pound [1] - Domestic soybean meal prices remained stable, with a USDA announcement of a $12 billion agricultural aid plan, although soybean farmers indicated that the subsidies are insufficient to cover losses from low prices and trade disputes [2] Group 2: Export and Production Insights - U.S. soybean export sales for the week ending December 18 showed a net increase of 987,100 tons, a decrease of 59% from the previous week and 46% from the four-week average [2] - Brazil's soybean planting is nearly complete with favorable weather conditions, leading to increased production forecasts from several analysis firms [2] - Argentina's soybean planting is 86% complete, with good growth conditions reported [2] Group 3: Corn Market Dynamics - CBOT corn futures experienced a slight decline amid light trading, with March corn settling at $4.37-1/2 per bushel, supported by strong export momentum [4] - Domestic corn prices showed minor fluctuations, with processing enterprises in Shandong adjusting purchase prices based on supply [5][6] - There are rumors of a corn auction scheduled for January 9, with specific pricing details for different regions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The soybean oil futures market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight increase in prices, while the overall supply remains stable and inventories are decreasing [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the main soybean oil futures contract closed at 7862 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline in open interest by 25,039 contracts [1] - During the week of December 29 to December 31, soybean oil futures opened at 7856 yuan/ton, peaked at 7896 yuan/ton, and dipped to a low of 7800 yuan/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 0.28% [1] Group 2: Inventory and Pricing - As of December 30, the national soybean oil port inventory was 1.039 million tons, down from 1.066 million tons on December 23, reflecting a decrease of 27,000 tons [2] - On December 30, the spot price of soybean oil was reported at 8272 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.24% [2] - Over the past week, soybean oil prices rose by 88 yuan/ton, marking an increase of 1.08%, while prices fell by 170 yuan/ton over the past month, a decrease of 2.01% [2] Group 3: Institutional Insights - According to Dayue Futures, the oilseed prices are stabilizing with a loose domestic fundamental backdrop and stable oilseed supply [3] - The ongoing tensions in US-China relations are impacting new soybean exports from the US, putting pressure on prices [3] - The domestic oil factory soybean oil inventory has been decreasing for several weeks, with tight delivery in East China, although the crushing rate remains high, indicating continued supply pressure [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago futures market for corn, wheat, and soybeans experienced a widespread decline on January 2, 2023, driven by multiple factors including seasonal selling and anticipated record harvests in South America [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On January 2, 2023, the most actively traded corn contract for March 2026 closed at $4.38 per bushel, down 2.75 cents or 0.62% from the previous trading day [1] - The March 2026 wheat contract closed at $5.07 per bushel, down 0.5 cents or 0.1% [1] - The March 2026 soybean contract closed at $10.46 per bushel, down 1.75 cents or 0.17% [1] Group 2: Contributing Factors - The sell-off in the Chicago agricultural market was influenced by the beginning of the new year and the selling pressure from managed funds [1] - Anticipated record soybean harvests in South America and a slowdown in Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans have put pressure on grain prices [1] - U.S. farmers sold some grains due to a transitional assistance plan for corn, soybean, and wheat growers being lower than expected, along with tax-related reasons [1] Group 3: Additional News - The U.S. Department of Commerce's International Trade Administration recently announced a significant reduction in the anti-dumping duties for several Italian pasta companies, which may lead to lower import tariffs on related products [1] - In South America, Brazil is expected to begin soybean harvesting in 2-3 weeks, with forecasts indicating a record production of over 180 million tons [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices rose first and then fell this week, with short - term large fluctuations. It is advisable to wait and see. Corn starch futures prices also rose first and then fell, and are expected to maintain short - term fluctuations [8][10] Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2603 contract of corn futures closed at 2,226 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from last week [8] - **Market Outlook**: U.S. corn is in the export peak season with high short - term supply pressure. However, good export conditions and a downward adjustment of the ending inventory forecast support its price. In China, the grain sales progress in the Northeast is fast, farmers are reluctant to sell, and most grain sources are in the hands of grain depots and traders. Feed enterprises have certain inventories, while deep - processing enterprises have relatively low inventories and weak willingness to purchase at higher prices. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the overall grain sales progress is about 40%, and processing enterprises are not willing to replenish stocks at high prices [8] Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2603 contract of Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated up and down, closing at 2,515 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from last week [10] - **Market Outlook**: With the increase in the supply of new - season corn, the supply - side pressure of corn starch remains. As of December 24, the national corn starch inventory increased. However, holiday stocking and the price increase of cassava starch may boost demand [10] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The 3 - month contract of corn futures rose first and then fell, with a total position of 1,009,261 lots, an increase of 5,461 lots from last week. The 3 - month contract of corn starch futures also rose first and then fell, with a total position of 195,489 lots, an increase of 3,391 lots from last week [16] Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 168,889 this week, with an increase in net short positions compared to last week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 31,610, with a decrease in net short positions compared to last week [23] Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 39,395 lots, and those of corn starch were 12,355 lots [29] Spot Price and Basis - As of December 30, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,351.76 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 3 - month contract and the spot average price was + 125 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,700 yuan/ton and 2,800 yuan/ton in Shandong, and the basis between the 3 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot price was 185 yuan/ton [34][39] Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 29 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 3 - 5 spread of starch was - 50 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [45] Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 3 - month contracts of starch and corn was 289 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 410 yuan/ton, the same as last week [53] Substitute Spread - As of December 30, 2025, the spot price of wheat was 2,516.17 yuan/ton, and the spot price of corn was 2,351.76 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 164.41 yuan/ton. In the 51st week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 712 yuan/ton, narrowing by 13 yuan/ton compared to last week [59] 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn Supply - As of December 19, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 224,000 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 278,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.803 million tons, an increase of 11,000 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 827,000 tons, an increase of 143,000 tons week - on - week [49] - As of December 25, the overall domestic corn sales progress was 45%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous week and 4 percentage points from the same period last year. The sales progress in the Northeast was 44%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous week and 8 percentage points from the same period last year [61] - In November 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 560,000 tons, the highest this year, an increase of 260,000 tons (86.67%) compared to the same period last year and 200,000 tons compared to last month [65] - As of December 25, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 29.88 days, a decrease of 0.10 days from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.68% [69] Demand - At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 9.86 million heads (2.3%) year - on - year and 12.33 million heads (2.9%) quarter - on - quarter. As of the end of October, the inventory of breeding sows was 30.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads (1.12%) month - on - month [73] - As of December 26, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was - 130.11 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 162.8 yuan/head [77] - As of December 30, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 50 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was - 399 yuan/ton in Henan, - 767 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 265 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [82] Corn Starch Supply - As of December 24, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.378 million tons, an increase of 4.26% [86] - From December 25 - 31, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 631,100 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 327,500 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 59.86%, a decrease of 0.6% from last week. As of December 31, the national corn starch inventory was 1.123 million tons, an increase of 21,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.91%, a month - on - month increase of 3.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.64% [90] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of December 31, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2603 contract of corn was 11.32%, a recovery of 1.04% from last week's 10.28%. The implied volatility this week recovered and was at a medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, South American soybean growth is good with high probability of a bumper harvest, and US soybean export progress is slow, leading to a weak trend in CBOT soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, concerns about subsequent soybean customs clearance time drive up domestic soybean prices [3][5]. - For edible oils, soybean oil inventory is declining, and it is expected to be strong in January but prone to decline in the medium - long term; rapeseed oil is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with the core of the future market depending on the evolution of China - Canada trade relations in 2026; palm oil is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with the potential for a price boost from the expected poor outlook in 2026 [3][4]. - For feed products, soybean meal is expected to be strong in the short - term but not recommended for chasing high prices; rapeseed meal may maintain a volatile pattern; corn is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range, and short - term long positions are recommended [5][6]. - For livestock products, the live pig futures price is in a weak shock, and it is recommended to wait for capacity reduction to be confirmed before buying at low prices; the egg futures price has fallen below historical lows, and it is recommended to avoid short - selling blindly and consider buying at low prices for the 2605 contract [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Outlook | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 05 | High auction transaction rate and premium transactions of domestic soybeans, improved sentiment. Abundant domestic soybean supply and good growth of South American soybeans. | 4060 - 4080 | 4270 - 4280 | Bullish shock | Hold short - term long positions [11] | | | Soybean No.2 05 | Good growth of South American soybeans. Pay attention to recent soybean customs clearance inspection. | 3350 - 3380 | 3530 - 3550 | Rise first then fall | Short on rebounds [11] | | | Soybean oil 05 | Sufficient domestic soybean oil supply. The promotion of international biodiesel policies may fall short of expectations. | 7600 - 7650 | 7900 - 7950 | Shock | Wait and see [11] | | | Rapeseed oil 05 | Australian rapeseed has not entered the crushing process, and domestic inventory continues to decline. | 8650 - 8700 | 9500 - 9550 | Volatile | Wait and see [11] | | Fats and Oils | Palm oil 05 | Previous negative factors are exhausted, and the fundamentals of the main producing areas have improved but limited. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board expects a poor outlook for palm oil in 2026. | 8300 - 8350 | 8700 - 8750 | Bullish shock | Go long on dips [11] | | Protein | Soybean meal 05 | Sufficient supply. Pay attention to recent soybean customs clearance. | 2650 - 2680 | 2830 - 2850 | Rise first then fall | Short on rebounds [11] | | | Rapeseed meal 05 | The expected increase in supply has not been realized, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The market lacks effective drivers. | 2270 - 2300 | 2440 - 2450 | Volatile | Wait and see [11] | | Energy and By - products | Corn 03 | Poor quality of North China corn, structural contradictions still exist. The recent market is disturbed by the news of imported corn auctions, with some pressure, but overall futures prices are expected to remain within a range. | 2160 - 2170 | 2300 - 2320 | Bullish shock | Short - term long - term thinking [11] | | | Corn starch 03 | Fluctuates within a range following the cost of corn. | 2450 - 2460 | 2620 - 2640 | Bullish shock | Short - term long - term thinking [11] | | Livestock | Live pigs 03 | The price of feed stops falling and rebounds, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. | 11000 - 11300 | 12500 - 12800 | Find the bottom in shock | Try long positions with light positions [11] | | | Eggs 05 | Decrease in new production and expectation of peak consumption season. | 3300 - 3400 | 3650 - 3700 | Find the bottom in shock | Buy on dips [11] | 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - For inter - month spreads, positive spreads are recommended for soybean No.2 3 - 5 and soybean meal 3 - 5, and short on rallies for corn 3 - 5. Other varieties are recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - For inter - commodity spreads, short positions are recommended for 05 rapeseed oil - soybean oil and 05 rapeseed oil - palm oil, and other varieties are recommended to wait and see [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The document provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties such as oilseeds, fats and oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Fats - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, including CNF prices, import duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rate data of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts. For example, soybean port inventory is 826.40 (- 5.28), and the soybean oil mill operating rate is 45.00% (- 10.00%) [18]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months [18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including deep - processing enterprise consumption, inventory, operating rate, and farmers' grain - selling progress [19]. 3.2.3 Livestock - It provides the daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, costs, profits, slaughter data, and inventory data [20][21][22][24]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock End (Live Pigs, Eggs)**: It includes charts of the closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, spot prices, and related cost and inventory data [26][28][29][33]. - **Oilseeds and Fats**: It includes charts of the production, export, inventory, and price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [37][44][53]. - **Feed End**: It includes charts of the price, basis, inventory, and consumption of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal [56][62][67][78]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Fats - It provides charts of the historical volatility of various varieties and the trading volume and open interest of corn options [89][90][91]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Fats - It provides charts of the warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, and live pigs [97][99][100].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of cotton, sugar, and pulp, providing investment strategies based on supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and market news [2][5][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2605 contract closed at 14,560 yuan/ton yesterday, up 125 yuan/ton (+0.87%) from the previous day. Spot: Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,384 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; national average price was 15,543 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [1] - In Pakistan, cotton area weather is mild and dry, with winter rainfall scarce. Daily arrival of seed cotton is below 1,550 tons, and total new cotton output is expected to be 1.085 - 1.124 million tons [1] Market Analysis - International: 12 - month USDA global cotton supply - demand adjustment is small. 25/26 global cotton production and demand both decrease, with a slight increase in ending stocks. US cotton production increases, with increased inventory pressure. Short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, but long - term decline space is limited [2] - Domestic: 25/26 domestic cotton production increases significantly. As new cotton sales progress, hedging resistance weakens. Demand improves near holidays, but downstream orders decline, inventory rises, and demand weakens marginally [2] Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Domestic cotton consumption is expected to increase due to expanded spinning capacity. With high production and consumption and low imports, supply - demand is not expected to be loose. Considering the expected decline in Xinjiang's planting area, long - term cotton prices are bullish, but short - term high - level corrections should be watched [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2605 contract closed at 5,258 yuan/ton yesterday, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.10%). Spot: Guangxi Nanning price was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - India's January 2026 sugar domestic sales quota is 2.2 million tons, down 50,000 tons from January 2025 [3] Market Analysis - International: 25/26 global sugar is in surplus. Short - term decline space is limited due to Brazil's harvest and India's slow exports, but rebound momentum is restricted [4] - Domestic: 25/26 domestic sugar production increases. Import pressure is high, but syrup control is tightening, and next year's syrup and premix imports may decrease [5] Strategy - Neutral. Domestic fundamentals are bearish. Although the valuation is low, the market may bottom out again, but the decline space is limited. Short - and medium - term sugar prices are expected to oscillate and bottom [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2605 contract closed at 5,568 yuan/ton yesterday, up 58 yuan/ton (+1.05%). Spot: Shandong Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp price was 5,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; Russian softwood pulp price was 5,175 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - Imported wood pulp spot market was stable. Futures fluctuated. Softwood pulp traders kept prices stable, and downstream procurement was cautious. Hardwood pulp supply was tight, and traders were reluctant to sell [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. Domtar closed Crofton paper mill, and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill will be shut down temporarily [7] - Demand: European port pulp inventory decreased in October. Domestic terminal demand is insufficient, but port inventory has declined recently, and future paper capacity expansion may support pulp prices [7] Strategy - Neutral. Overseas supply disruptions and pre - Spring Festival restocking expectations may lead to a mild recovery in domestic demand. Short - term pulp prices are expected to oscillate strongly, but the increase depends on demand improvement and inventory digestion [8]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-31 现货压力仍存，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2778元/吨，较前日变动+4元/吨，幅度+0.14%；菜粕2605合约2403元/吨，较前 日变动+16元/吨，幅度+0.67%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3100元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差 M05+322，较前日变动-4；江苏地区豆粕现货3060元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M05+282，较前日变动 +6；广东地区豆粕现货价格3070元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M05+292，较前日变动-4。福建地区菜粕 现货价格2610元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM05+207，较前日变动-16。 近期市场资讯，12月29日，美国农业部公布的周度出口检验报告显示，截至2025年12月25日当周，美国大豆出口 检验量为75万吨，此前市场预估为75-120万吨，前一周修正后为92.9万吨，初值为87万吨。 市场分析 国内供应仍显宽松，油厂大豆及豆粕现货库存偏高，叠加南美较为强烈的丰产预期，05合约的价格跟随美豆价格 同步偏弱运行。短期来看，美豆 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For soymeal, the market is expected to be volatile, and investors are advised to avoid holiday - related risks [1]. - For soybeans, investors are advised to hedge risks before the holiday and observe the market cautiously [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybeans 2605 closed at 4224 yuan/ton in the day - session, up 65 yuan (+1.56%), and 4237 yuan/ton in the night - session, up 33 yuan (+0.78%); DCE soymeal 2605 closed at 2778 yuan/ton in the day - session, down 10 yuan (-0.36%), and 2771 yuan/ton in the night - session, up 3 yuan (+0.11%); CBOT soybeans 03 closed at 1060.75 cents/bushel, down 3.0 cents (-0.28%); CBOT soymeal 03 closed at 302.3 dollars/short - ton, down 1.2 dollars (-0.40%) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soymeal (43%) was 3060 - 3140 yuan/ton, with different basis prices for different months; in East China, it was 3040 - 3140 yuan/ton; in South China, it was 3120 - 3200 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soymeal was 20.37 million tons per day, compared with 5.07 million tons two days ago; the inventory was 110.22 million tons per week, compared with 105.63 million tons two weeks ago [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On December 30, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to the clear production outlook of South American soybeans. Year - end closing will be the main theme in the market in the next few days. The market will focus on the weekly export sales report and position report on Wednesday. Private exporters reported selling 13.6 million tons of soybeans to China and 23.1 million tons to unknown destinations in the 2025/26 season. Soybean harvesting is underway in Brazil's Paraná and Mato Grosso states, and nearly 76% of soybean planting in Argentina has been completed [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soymeal and soybeans is 0, indicating a neutral situation for the day - session's main contract futures price fluctuations on the reporting day [4].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周国内最新大豆库存环比大幅下降，但豆粕库存环比增加，且同比偏高。但一季 | | | | 度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，国内现货价格表现抗跌。加上阿根 | | 豆粕 | 短线反弹 | 廷降雨再度低于正常水平，存在升水支持。但美豆周度出口数据持续恶化，美豆暂 | | ★ | | 难言企稳，因此豆粕看多逢低适量短多为宜，元旦假期做好仓位控制。关注美豆出 | | | | 口数据能否改善及南美天气情况。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，仓单库存压力有所减轻。但全球丰产、进 | | 菜粕 | 短线反弹 | 口多元化及消费淡季弱化看多预期。菜粕短期以跟随豆粕趋势为主，库存压力缓解， | | ★ | | 比豆粕相比表现出一定的抗跌性。关注澳籽压榨和进口政策、中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 马棕榈油本月前 25 日出口数据环比增加，产量环比继续调减，12 月存在去库预期， | | 棕榈油 | 止跌反弹 | 昨日棕榈油收涨，关注月底最终数据。看多逢低参与，元旦假期做好仓位管理。 | | ★ | | ...

品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 31 日） ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：一方面，供应压力持续显现，截至第 52 周末，国内油厂豆粕库存已增至 117.6 万吨，环比增 加 7.72%，处于历史同期高位。另一方面，成本端存在支撑，且国内油厂压榨利润不佳，挺价意愿较强。需 求端则表现平淡，尽管生猪存栏高位，但饲料配方中豆粕添加比例下降，且节前备货需求温和，企业多按 需采购，难以拉动价格。综合来看，豆粕市场短期受高库存和弱需求压制，上行乏力，但下方有进口成本 及油厂挺价支撑，下跌空间有限，短期豆类期价维持区间震荡走势。 专业研究·创造价值 ...