2025年05月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期偏弱，下方有支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：单边有回调风险，品种间偏强 | 2 | | 豆粕：假期美豆涨跌互现，连粕或偏弱运行 | 5 | | 豆一：震荡 | 5 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 8 | | 棉花：仍缺乏上涨驱动 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 11 | | 生猪：假期缩量，关注节后出栏节奏 | 12 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 6 日 棕榈油：短期偏弱，下方有支撑 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 豆油：单边有回调风险，品种间偏强 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单位 | 收盘价(日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价（夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,148 | 0.34% | ...

Group 1 - As of April 30, 2025, corn futures closed at 2377 CNY/ton, marking a weekly increase of 1.76% with a trading volume increase of 112,988 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - For the week ending April 24, 2024, U.S. corn export net sales were 1.014 million tons, down from 1.153 million tons the previous week, while corn shipments were 1.598 million tons, down from 1.78 million tons [2] - On April 30, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a corn warehouse receipt of 168,663 contracts, an increase of 35,188 contracts from the previous trading day [3] Group 2 - Market sentiment for corn prices is strong, with expectations of high volatility; however, caution is advised due to potential pressure from upcoming wheat harvests [4] - Supply dynamics indicate that grain reserves in Northeast China are nearing depletion, leading to a bullish outlook among traders, while demand from livestock and feed sectors is increasing due to improved profitability [5] - The stability of wheat prices and its reduced price gap with corn may impact corn demand negatively, highlighting the need to monitor U.S.-China tariff policy changes [5]

Core Points - The Chicago futures market saw a decline in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on May 5, with corn down 3.14%, wheat down 2.16%, and soybeans down 1.18% [1] - Favorable weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest are expected to facilitate rapid spring planting, contributing to the downward pressure on prices [1][2] - The USDA reported significant increases in cumulative export inspection volumes for corn (29%), soybeans (11%), and wheat (14%) compared to the previous year [1] Group 1 - On May 5, the most active July corn contract closed at $4.54 per bushel, down 14.75 cents; July wheat at $5.31 per bushel, down 11.75 cents; and July soybeans at $10.46 per bushel, down 12.5 cents [1] - The USDA's export inspection report indicated that for the week ending May 1, corn export inspections totaled 63.317 million bushels, wheat 11.4 million bushels, and soybeans 11.9 million bushels [1] - IKAR raised its forecast for Russia's wheat production in 2025 from 82.5 million tons to 83.8 million tons [1]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index declined by 2.07%, closing at 30.9673 points, indicating a continuous downward trend throughout the day [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 3.14%, settling at $4.5425 per bushel, reflecting a significant drop in grain prices [1]

周度报告-玉米&玉米淀粉 期现共振上涨 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 玉米&玉米淀粉：看涨 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 5 | 日 | [Table_Analyser] | ★[Ta玉ble米_Summary] 一周复盘：玉米、小麦现货明显上涨，玉米 07 合约冲破 2350 压力 位。"若无规模化替代，7 月现实缺口将暴露"的预期或正逐步兑现， 随着 7 月节点的临近，支撑我们这一观点的现象也逐步出现。深加 工企业玉米虽然因亏损而消耗量缓慢下滑，但原料库存持续大幅下 降；中储粮虽然转向净轮出状态，但拍卖成交率和溢价双高，均表 明商业库存或逐步趋紧。 下周观点： 农 产 品 中期看，现实供需的转强预计将继续驱动价格上涨，07 合约全年的 高点有望达到 2450 元/吨左右，届时基差、月差也有望形成 back 结 构，主要是考虑到以下几点原因：1）生猪存栏与均重双高，预计能 量总需求同比回升幅度较好，淀粉恢复出口与副产品受豆粕拉动， 预计将延 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 多移仓至 7 月和 9 月合约。现货市场方面，受期货上涨带动现货延续偏强表现。 | 震荡 | | | 周二，玉米减仓上行，期价收十字星。5 月合约临近交割月，多空主动减仓，主 | | | | 目前，东北玉米价格仍延续上涨的模式，普遍涨幅在 10-20 元/吨，价格持续上 | | | | 涨产区贸易商出货积极性一般。部分贸易商参与中储粮拍卖，拍卖的玉米价格高 | | | | 于现货价格。华北地区玉米价格继续偏强运行。期现货价格联动上涨，市场短期 | | | | 看涨热情较高，早间深加工企业门前到货车辆依然维持低位，企业玉米收购价格 | | | | 继续上涨，华北大部分企业玉米收购价格上调 10-20 元/吨。销区市场玉米价格 | | | | 上调，部分港口报价上调。期货表现持续偏强，产区贸易商看涨心态高涨，港口 | | | | 跟随积极上调报价，但下游提货速度一般，远期订单询价较多，签单数量有限。 | | | | 技术上，玉米 7 月合约突破前高，价格突破密集成交区 ...

期货热点追踪 马棕油期价连续三日走低，印尼突然下调出口税，棕榈油"价格战"开打，马棕油价格会否跌破这一支 撑？ 相关链接 ...

2025年04月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地压力仍有释放空间 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：单边偏弱，品种间偏强运行 | 2 | | 豆粕：偏弱震荡，规避假期风险 | 4 | | 豆一：反弹震荡，规避假期风险 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：需求仍然不乐观 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货弱势震荡 | 9 | | 生猪：阶段性去库开启，等待节后印证 | 10 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 11 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 30 日 棕榈油：产地压力仍有释放空间 豆油：单边偏弱，品种间偏强运行 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,120 7,780 | -0.66% ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Grain Index experienced a decline of 1.64%, closing at 31.3535 points, following a significant drop after reaching a daily high of 31.9464 points [1] Group 1: Commodity Futures - CBOT corn futures fell by 2.59%, settling at $4.7075 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures decreased by 1.41%, closing at $5.2450 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures dropped by 0.89%, ending at $10.5150 per bushel, while soybean meal futures rose by 0.81% and soybean oil futures fell by 2.36% [1]

| 《八》国投期货 | | 农产品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月29日 | | 豆一 | ななな | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 菜粕 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆★ | | 【三一】 国产大豆主力合约价格呈现下跌势头,在假期前呈现城仓操作。目前调节储备大豆仍在往市场上投放。进口大 豆.方面五一节后油厂会陆续开机,5-7月份的大豆到港里庞大。所以短期夹注意进口大豆方面供应格局有一个先 紧后松的切换。短期继续关注政策端的表现以及大豆供需面的变动。 【大豆&豆粕】 豆瓣减仓,价格下跌,临近长假,注意控制风险。近端的豆粕受注意 ...