Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - The report's investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils are oscillating under pressure due to a lack of clear guidance. The soybean supply is abundant, and the oil mill's crushing volume remains high. The market's focus has shifted from the cost of imported soybeans to the substantial supply pressure. There is also a market expectation of state reserve sales, with a relatively high probability of soybean reserve sales in the first quarter, reducing the expectation of a soybean supply shortage from February to March. Currently, soybean oil lacks upward momentum and is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Although there are occasional abnormal weather conditions in South America, their impact is currently minimal, and future weather conditions in South American production areas should continue to be monitored [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8486.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan or 0.75% from the previous day. - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8168.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.00 yuan or 0.27% from the previous day. - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9778.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.00 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8450.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150.00 yuan or 1.74% from the previous day, with a spot basis of P01 - 36.00, a decrease of 86.00 yuan from the previous day. - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8360.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous day, with a spot basis of Y01 + 192.00, an increase of 2.00 yuan from the previous day. - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.00 yuan or 0.69% from the previous day, with a spot basis of OI01 + 322.00, a decrease of 32.00 yuan from the previous day [1] Market News - A private exporter reported selling 123,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year, which starts on September 1st in the US. - As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop had reached 81% of the expected area, and the sowing area of Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn had reached 93% of the planned area in the central - southern region. - As of November 21, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across China was 117.99 million tons, an increase of 3.14 million tons or 2.73% from the previous week. - As of November 21, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key regions across China was 222.40 million tons, an increase of 0.10 million tons or 0.04% from the previous week, and a 12.84% increase compared to the same period last year. - The commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across China was 66.71 million tons, an increase of 1.39 million tons or 2.13% from the previous week, and a 31.34% increase compared to 50.79 million tons in the same period last year. - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was 522 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 531 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) was 1170 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1158 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) was 1110 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1090 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (December shipment) was 500 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West Coast soybeans (December shipment) was 494 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (December shipment) was 492 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day. - The import soybean premium quotes: the premium for the Mexican Gulf (December shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, a decrease of 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for the US West Coast (December shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, a decrease of 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for Brazilian ports (December shipment) was 215 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] Group 4: Strategy - The recommended strategy is "Neutral" [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn is expected to show an oscillatory upward trend, with the near - month leading the rise and the far - month following. The 2601 contract has broken through and reached a new high, and the short - term remains strong. Attention should be paid to whether the 7 and 9 - month contracts can break through the pressure range in mid - October [1]. - Soybeans are expected to oscillate. The CBOT soybeans have fallen from a 17 - month high, waiting for more details of China's procurement and Sino - US dialogue [1]. - For oilseeds, they are expected to oscillate. BMD palm oil has declined for three consecutive days, reaching the lowest price since July. Domestic palm oil leads the decline, and the total inventory of the three major oils has slightly increased [1]. - Eggs are expected to have a wide - range oscillatory trend. The futures price rebounds after reaching the previous low, and short - term long positions should be held with caution. Attention should be paid to the impact of the old chickens' slaughter on the market [1][2]. - Pigs are expected to oscillate. The short - term market is in a state of near - month weakness and far - month strength. The industry expects that the inventory of breeding sows in October will fall below 40 million tons, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the 5, 7, and 9 - month contracts to stabilize and rebound [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: From the supply side, farmers' grain - selling rhythm is slow, and the market trading is not active. Central reserve corn procurement prices and spot prices are rising. From the demand side, deep - processing enterprises purchase as needed, and feed enterprises' inventory is rising steadily. The 2601 contract has broken through, and the short - term trend is strong [1]. - **Soybeans**: CBOT soybeans have fallen from a 17 - month high. China purchased 158.4 tons last week and 12.3 tons on Monday. The US soybean inspection volume is in line with market expectations. The market is waiting for more details of Sino - US dialogue and the US government's plan for farmers [1]. - **Oilseeds**: BMD palm oil has declined for three consecutive days due to the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit and weak demand. Domestic palm oil leads the decline, and the total inventory of the three major oils has increased slightly to 222.4 million tons due to the increase in palm oil inventory [1]. - **Eggs**: The main 2601 contract has oscillated upwards. Spot prices have increased slightly, and short - term prices in the production areas are mostly stable with a few rising. Futures prices are expected to oscillate widely, and short - term long positions should be held with caution [1][2]. - **Pigs**: The main 2601 contract has oscillated, and the far - month 7 and 9 - month contracts have gapped up. Spot prices are generally stable, and the industry expects a supply and price inflection point in the second half of 2026 [2]. Market Information - As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop has reached 81%, and the sowing area of the first - crop corn has reached 93% of the planned area in the central and southern regions [3]. - As of November 21, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key areas of China has increased by 0.1 million tons to 222.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.84% [3]. - On November 24, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" have both increased. The average prices of pork, beef, mutton, and eggs in the national agricultural product wholesale market have increased, while the price of white - striped chicken has decreased [3]. - The weekly soybean crushing volume of major oil mills in China has risen above 2.3 million tons, and it is expected to remain at around 2.3 million tons this week. The estimated total soybean crushing volume in November is about 8.7 million tons [4]. Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products, including corn, soybean, oilseeds, eggs, and pigs, but no specific data analysis is given [6][7][11][14][17][19][24]. Team Member Introduction - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title for many years and has rich experience in leading research teams [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of futures experience. She has also won many awards in relevant analyst evaluations [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with certain research achievements and media exposure [26].

油料日报 | 2025-11-25 豆一受需求缺口拉动延续涨势，花生关注基层上货节奏 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4150.00元/吨，较前日变化+41.00元/吨，幅度+1.00%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01-50，较前日变化-41，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北产区新季大豆价格表现坚挺，基层农户库存不多，挺价意愿较强，39%以上蛋白大豆毛粮 价格仍有趋涨走势，普通蛋白豆在高蛋白价格带动下也表现偏强。但从粮贸企业销售情况来看整体一般，随着还 粮陆续结束，价格或以持稳为主。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一 日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富 锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.03元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白 41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.17元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价 2.16元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.17元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints - The short - term range of Zhengzhou cotton prices is limited, with a mid - to long - term optimistic outlook after seasonal pressure. For sugar, short - term downward pressure exists but with limited downside and possible weak rebounds, while the long - term outlook is not optimistic. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level oscillations due to insufficient fundamental improvement [2][5][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,585 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton (+0.93%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,574 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,793 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. From November 14 - 20, 2025/26 US cotton grading inspection was 270,200 tons, with 84.6% meeting ICE delivery requirements [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA report increased global cotton production in 2025/26, leading to a significant rise in ending stocks and a shift from destocking to restocking. US cotton sales pressure has increased. In the short term, the external market is under pressure. Domestically, after the National Day, the expected new - cotton output decreased, and the seed - cotton purchase price rose, driving up Zhengzhou cotton prices. However, there is strong hedging pressure, and the expected Xinjiang output has increased again. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, limiting the downside space [1] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. In the short term, view cotton prices with an oscillatory mindset. In the long term, be optimistic about cotton prices after seasonal pressure and consider the opportunity to go long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [2] Sugar Market News and Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,370 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.32%). The sugar spot price in Yunnan Kunming was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. As of November 22 - 24, 3 new sugar mills in Guangxi started production, and 2 more are expected to start soon. By the end of November, about 31 mills are expected to be in operation. Currently, 18 mills have started production, 26 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 129,000 tons, 268,000 tons less than last year [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian supply in the second half of October was strong, and the Indian sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to rebound significantly, suppressing the sugar price. However, the short - term Indian exports are difficult to increase, and the Brazilian supply pressure is weakening, limiting the further decline of the raw - sugar price. In the Chinese market, the higher - than - expected imports and the start of sugar - mill production in Guangxi have increased the short - term supply pressure [4][5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The short - term fundamental driving force is downward, but the low valuation and the sugar mills' willingness to support prices limit the downside. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose, and the price outlook is not optimistic [5] Pulp Market News and Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,220 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%). The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,490 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood - pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices showing an upward trend [5][6] Market Analysis - The European pulp port inventory in September decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking was slower than expected, and the supply remained loose. The weak demand in Europe and the US and the insufficient domestic demand are the main factors suppressing the pulp price. Although there is new paper - production capacity, the effective demand is insufficient, and the paper mills' raw - material procurement is cautious [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Due to the insufficient improvement in the pulp fundamentals, the price is expected to continue low - level oscillations [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The prices of major agricultural commodity futures, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, are expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short, medium, and intraday terms [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly." The reference view is also "oscillating weakly" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: U.S. soybean futures prices are oscillating at 1100 cents. The incremental Chinese purchases are lower than expected, offsetting the bullish impact of South American drought. Domestic oil mills' operating rate remains at a high of 65%, with high soybean meal inventory forcing traders to sell goods, pressuring spot prices. Feed mills only maintain an 8 - day rigid inventory, and pig losses suppress restocking willingness. The spot basis remains negative. The key psychological and technical support level for short - term soybean meal futures prices is 3000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Attention Points**: The realization of precipitation in South America in December and the adjustment of oil mills' operating rhythm [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly." The reference view is also "oscillating weakly" [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil continues to accumulate as production recovers. The spot price of palm oil continues to decline slightly. The biodiesel policy of U.S. soybean oil is uncertain, and positive signals are released in China - Canada relations. The pressure on the palm oil industry chain continues to increase, and short - term palm oil futures prices continue to fluctuate weakly. The trend of palm oil is closely linked to U.S. soybean oil and the international oil and fat sector, and the biodiesel policy is a key variable [7]. 3.3 Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly." The reference view is also "oscillating weakly" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by U.S. soybean cost support, U.S. biodiesel policy, U.S. soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mills' inventory [6].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 南美降雨低于正常水平对种植存在干扰。目前现货油厂销售压力下降，存在挺价心 | | 豆粕 | | 理。中美会晤结果显示，美豆进口关税问题仍未得到有效解决。贸易成本叠加巴西 | | ★ | 短线整理 | 种植升水可能，市场看多情绪炒作。短线偏多，关注南美大豆种植天气进展。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高。11 月 22 日新 | | 菜粕 | 短线止跌整理 | 沙港将有一船澳籽到港。实质影响有限。基本面暂无大波动预期。菜粕昨日跟随豆 | | ★ | | 粕收涨，逢低短多对待。关注中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 棕榈油阶段性供需偏弱状态，11 月马棕榈油前 20 日出口数据环比数据进一步走弱， | | 棕榈油 | 偏弱整理 | 打压棕榈油价格昨日回落收跌。11 月马棕榈油累库预期依然存在，看多暂观望。 | | ★ | | | | | | 国内豆油库存环比下降，但仍高于五年同期。中美关税未能彻底解决美豆进口成本 | | 豆油 | 短期震荡 | 问题，美生柴乐观情绪升温，叠加巴西 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for late indica rice futures remains unchanged at 2535.00 CNY/ton as of the report date [1] Group 2 - In the third week of November 2025, Brazil exported a total of 3.939 million tons of corn, down from 4.7264 million tons in November last year, with an average daily shipment of 281,400 tons, representing a 13.11% increase compared to last November's 248,800 tons per day [2] - In the next 6-10 days, 20% of the major corn-producing areas in the United States are expected to experience above-normal temperatures, while 90% of the areas are likely to see precipitation above historical averages [2] - As of November 20, 2025, the U.S. corn export inspection volume was 1,632,144 tons, which is a 21% decrease from the previous week but a 62% increase year-on-year, with total export inspections for the 2025/26 season up 72% compared to the same period last year [2] - According to AgRural, as of last Thursday, the planting area for Brazil's first corn crop in the 2025/26 season has reached 93% of the planned area in the central-southern region [2]

本作物年度，美国玉米累计出口检验量为6.88亿蒲式耳，同比增长72%；小麦累计出口检验量4.72亿蒲 式耳，增长20%；大豆累计出口检验量为4.02亿蒲式耳，同比减少3.22亿蒲式耳，创17年来新低。 新华财经纽约11月24日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价24日全线下跌。 短期来看，全球农产品市场缺乏方向。不过，随着即将进入12月，南美洲天气及其潜在威胁将成为影响 农产品价格的重要因素。目前巴西大豆播种工作已经完成，虽然巴西中部和北部即将迎来持续降雨，但 整体南美洲天气继续正常发展。市场分析机构观点认为，在南美洲没有恶劣天气的情况下，冬季期间美 国大豆销售将变得更加困难。 消息面上，美国农业部24日发布的出口检验报告显示，截至11月20日当周，美国玉米出口检验量为6400 万蒲式耳，低于前一周的8100万蒲式耳；小麦出口检验量1700万蒲式耳，高于前一周的900万蒲式耳， 创六周新高；大豆出口检验量2900万蒲式耳，低于前一周的4400万蒲式耳，创七周新低。美国玉米和小 麦出口检验量接近预期上限，而大豆出货量令人失望。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的2026年3月合约收于每蒲式 ...

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 0.35%, closing at 30.0277 points [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 0.06%, settling at $4.3725 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures dropped by 1.06%, ending at $5.35 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures declined by 0.38%, closing at $11.2125 per bushel [1] - Soymeal futures decreased by 0.50%, while soybean oil futures fell by 0.24% [1] - CBOT lean hog futures increased by 1.83% [1]

每经AI快讯，周一（11月24日）纽约尾盘，彭博谷物分类指数跌0.35%，报30.0277点。CBOT玉米期货 跌0.06%，报4.3725美元/蒲式耳。CBOT小麦期货跌1.06%，报5.35美元/蒲式耳。CBOT大豆期货跌 0.38%，报11.2125美元/蒲式耳，豆粕期货跌0.50%，豆油期货跌0.24%。CBOT瘦肉猪期货涨1.83%。 ...