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中信期货晨报:国内商品期货涨跌互现,农副产品涨幅居前-20250624
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 07:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed maintains the federal funds rate and the expectation of rate cuts in the second half of the year but is more cautious. The US economic fundamentals are still disturbed by geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects. The surge in oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals [7]. - Domestic macro: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announces multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations in the second half of the year. In May, fixed - asset investment continued to expand, and the service industry grew faster. The decline in housing prices continued to narrow. Industrial and service production, as well as consumer spending, all showed positive growth [7]. - Asset views: The domestic economy maintains a weak and stable pattern, with mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, but the long - term weak dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price and Fluctuation - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 1000 futures had the highest daily increase of 1.10%, while the CSI 500 futures, SSE 50 futures, and CSI 300 futures also rose by 0.67%, 0.66%, and 0.63% respectively [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year Treasury bond futures decreased by 0.02%, the 2 - year Treasury bond futures decreased by 0.01%, while the 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures remained unchanged [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index remained unchanged, the euro against the US dollar had no change in pips, the US dollar against the Japanese yen remained unchanged, and the central parity rate of the US dollar increased by 15 pips [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate remained unchanged, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.3 bp, and the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield remained unchanged [3]. - **Hot Industries**: The comprehensive finance industry had the highest daily increase of 5.03%, followed by the comprehensive, computer, and national defense and military industries [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil rose by 1.27%, while ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 3.76%. COMEX gold decreased by 0.06%, and COMEX silver decreased by 2.20% [3]. 3.2 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed maintains the federal funds rate, and the US economic data shows mixed performance. The economic fundamentals are still affected by geopolitical and trade uncertainties [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum promotes policy expectations. In May, fixed - asset investment, industrial production, service industry, and consumer spending all showed positive trends [7]. 3.3 Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies will be implemented [8]. - **Finance**: The bullish sentiment in stocks and bonds has declined. Stock index futures, stock index options, and Treasury bond futures are all expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined. The container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate, focusing on the game between peak - season expectations and price increases [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: In the off - season, the molten iron output has increased, and the market continues to fluctuate narrowly. Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The coexistence of low - inventory reality and weak demand expectations leads to continued fluctuations in non - ferrous metals. Zinc and nickel are expected to decline, while others are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The US may intervene in the Israel - Iran conflict, and crude oil maintains high volatility. Different energy and chemical products have different trends, with some expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [10]. - **Agriculture**: The Sino - US negotiation has made substantial progress, which is beneficial for the cotton price rebound. Different agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to factors such as harvest, planting, and production - demand data [10].
这个方向,券商研报说存在56%的上涨空间
雪球· 2025-06-24 07:29
以下文章来源于阡陌说 ,作者阡陌说 阡陌说 . 雪球2022年度基金影响力用户,天天基金2024年度影响力牛人。公众号大部分为基金学习笔记,可能会略显枯燥,感谢您的关注!期待与您同行收获时间 的玫瑰。 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者:阡陌说 来源:雪球 最近,我发现很多文章提及了金银比。 金银比是啥呢?它是反映黄金与白银之间的相对价格关系的一个指标,通常用于衡量白银是否被低估或高估。金银比越高,说明白银相对于黄金越 便宜,反之则越贵。 从历史数据来看,金银比在2025年4月一度升至104,随后随着白银价格的补涨,金银比逐步回落。截至2025年6月20日,COMEX黄金为3384.4美 元/盎司,COMEX白银为35.95美元/盎司,金银比最新值是94.14。 数据来源:WIND,截至2025年6月20日,历史收益不预示未来走势 数据来源:WIND,截至2025年6月20日,历史收益不预示未来走势 一、逻辑支撑 2.1、白银素有"魔鬼金属 "之称,波动率是黄金的1.5倍。 2.2、金银比的修复并非单边趋势,而是受多重因素影响的过程,短期波动可能较大,投 ...
停牌前涨停!000633,拟易主
中国基金报· 2025-06-24 07:08
Core Viewpoint - Alloy Investment is planning a change in control, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock trading, with a significant increase in stock price prior to the announcement [1][3][5]. Group 1: Control Change and Stock Performance - On June 24, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced that Alloy Investment is planning a change in control, resulting in a temporary suspension of its stock trading [1]. - Alloy Investment's major shareholder, Guanghui Energy, is planning to transfer its 20.74% stake in the company to Jiuzhou Hengchang Logistics [3][9]. - As of June 23, Alloy Investment's stock price was 6.15 yuan per share, reflecting a 10.02% increase, with a total market capitalization of 2.368 billion yuan [5]. Group 2: Business Operations and Financial Performance - Alloy Investment primarily engages in the production and sales of nickel-based alloy materials and the new energy heavy truck transportation business [13]. - The company has experienced a turnaround in performance, with a projected net profit of 11.68 million yuan for 2024, representing a 100.78% year-on-year increase [14]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to reach approximately 277.18 million yuan, an 18.51% increase compared to 2023 [15]. Group 3: Changes in New Energy Heavy Truck Business - Recent changes in the new energy heavy truck transportation business have been noted, including the termination of a vehicle leasing contract with Xinjiang Huiyi New Energy [12][13]. - Alloy Investment's subsidiary, Huiyi Intelligent, had previously signed a contract to lease 200 electric heavy trucks, which is now under review [13]. Group 4: Broader Context of Guanghui Group - Guanghui Group, the ultimate controlling shareholder of Alloy Investment, has been involved in multiple equity changes across its A-share companies, including Guanghui Energy and Alloy Investment [19][21]. - Following recent transactions, Guanghui Group's stake in Guanghui Energy has been reduced to 20.06%, maintaining its status as the controlling shareholder [22].
五矿期货文字早评-20250624
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 03:39
文字早评 2025/06/24 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.65%,创指+0.39%,科创 50+0.38%,北证 50+1.54%,上证 50+0.41%,沪深 300+0.29%, 中证 500+0.61%,中证 1000+1.31%,中证 2000+1.94%,万得微盘+2.54%。两市合计成交 11226 亿,较上 一日+549 亿。 宏观消息面: 1、在美国 22 日空袭伊朗三处核设施后,伊朗议会迅速通过"关闭霍尔木兹海峡"的提案,该海峡是海 湾地区石油输往世界各地的唯一海上通道,是全球最重要的石油 "咽喉要道"之一。 2、美商务部计划撤销台积电、三星、SK 海力士在华使用美国技术的豁免政策,要求这些企业今后需逐 案申请许可证。 3、美联储理事鲍曼:若通胀持续下降或劳动力市场疲软,7 月可能会降息。美联储将于 7 月 22 日举办 关于银行资本的会议。 资金面:融资额-82.33 亿;隔夜 Shibor 利率+0.10bp 至 1.368%,流动性较为宽松;3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.66bp 至 2.8756%,十年期国债利率-0.20bp 至 1.6387%,信用利差 ...
局势突变!A股这次能突破3400吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-24 02:26
据CCTV国际时讯援引路透社报道,一名伊朗高级官员向路透社证实,伊朗已接受卡塔尔参与调解、美国提出的与以色列停火方案。就在早些时 候,美国总统特朗普宣布以色列和伊朗将分阶段全面停火。这个消息一出,在全球市场或将激起千层浪,对A股也势必产生深远影响。 2、避险资产也将面临回调压力。黄金、军工等冲突受益板块此前因市场恐慌情绪被推高,随着局势缓和,获利资金或加速离场。投资者需警惕前 期涨幅过高的避险个股出现技术性回调风险; 简单说,如果伊以真的停火,短期或有以下影响: 1、中东作为全球能源核心枢纽,其局势变化直接牵动大宗商品市场与全球供应链神经。若伊以停火落地,最直接的影响将体现在能源领域。霍尔 木兹海峡封锁风险大幅降低,国际油价短期暴涨预期随之消退。对A股而言,航空、交运等成本敏感型行业将率先受益,尤其是燃油成本下降直 接转化为企业利润,有望推动相关板块估值修复; 3、从更宏观的视角看,全球供应链有望迎来修复。此前因地缘冲突引发的运输中断、成本攀升等问题,将逐步得到缓解,A 股出口导向型企业的 经营压力随之减轻。同时,北向资金因避险情绪产生的大幅波动也将趋于平稳,为市场注入稳定性。 据中国基金报消息,美联储理事克 ...
制造业智能升级促进岗位扩容就业提质
Yang Guang Wang· 2025-06-24 01:10
Group 1 - The current trend in China's manufacturing industry is towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, with a focus on upgrading job roles and improving employment quality [1][2] - Fujian Province's Fuyao Group is undergoing large-scale automation and intelligent transformation of its production lines, creating new job roles such as robot trainers and AI engineers [1] - The human resources head of Fuyao Group stated that systematic training programs are transforming employees from simple mechanical labor to new technical workers, leading to skill upgrades and increased income [1] Group 2 - Anhui Energy Group has established a talent special fund of 10 million yuan for talent introduction, training, and incentives within the company [1] - The director of the party organization department at Anhui Energy Group emphasized the integration of "stabilizing employment" with talent development and technological innovation [1] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security is encouraging manufacturing enterprises to release human resource service demands and promote AI empowerment in the human resources service industry [2]
大宗商品周度报告:流动性和需求均承压,商品短期或震荡偏弱运行-20250623
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 14:02
流动性和需求均承压 商品短期或震荡偏弱运行 大宗商品周度报告 2025年6月23日 ●行情回顾:上周商品市场整体收涨2.29%,其中能化涨幅较大,上涨4.11%, 农产品和黑色分别上涨2.10%和0.91%,贵金属和有色金属分别下跌1.76%和 0.09%。 ●展望:伊以局势的演化备受关注,决定着短期大类资产的走向和定价逻辑, 周末美国对于伊朗采取了行动攻击了核设施,市场有伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡的预 期,能源价格偏强。但是从美国的表现来看又有对局势维稳的诉求,短期不确定 性仍然存在,观察后续伊朗的反击力度。风险偏好短期承压,但人民币稳定下冲 击力度有限,继续跟踪能源隐含波动率的情况核离岸美元流动性的稳定情况。 贵金属方面,国际金价高位整理,主要受美联储官员释放偏鸽信号、市场对 年内降息预期升温的影响,美元指数回落进一步助推资金流入黄金市场。地缘政 治紧张局势未明显缓和,加之全球央行购金趋势持续,为黄金提供坚实支撑。白 银走势则相对分化,受制造业数据波动影响呈区间震荡。 有色金属方面,板块整体窄幅震荡。铜价高位整理,支撑来自海外库存偏紧、 全球新能源投资延续,但短期受美联储利率政策及高位消费乏力影响,动能放缓; ...
大类资产运行周报(20250616-20250620):地缘局势依旧焦灼,权益资产价格承压-20250623
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 13:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 16th to June 20th, the Fed's June FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged, the Middle - East geopolitical situation further escalated, the US dollar index rose weekly, stocks and bonds were weak, and commodities continued to rise. In general, commodities > bonds > stocks in terms of USD - denominated assets [3][6]. - In China, from June 16th to June 20th, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in May was lower than expected, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in May was higher than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment from January to May was 3.7%, lower than expected. The year - on - year decline of national real estate development investment from January to May was 10.7%. The stock market declined, and the bond market and commodities rose. Generally, commodities > bonds > stocks [3]. - The market will focus on the Middle - East situation in the short term. The price fluctuations of related large - scale assets, especially energy prices, may increase. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation [3][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Large - scale Asset Overall Performance - **Global Stock Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the Middle - East situation increased market risk - aversion, and most global stock markets declined. European stocks performed poorly, and emerging markets were slightly more resilient than developed markets. The VIX index fluctuated weekly [8]. - **Global Bond Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the Fed's June FOMC meeting maintained the target range of the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.5%, in line with market expectations. The divergence of Fed officials' monetary policy expectations increased. Medium - and long - term US bond yields declined, and the 10 - year US bond yield fell 3BP to 4.38% weekly. The bond market fluctuated weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [13]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the US macro data was generally stable, market risk - aversion increased, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated narrowly. The US dollar index rose 0.63% weekly [14]. - **Global Commodity Market**: The escalation of the geopolitical situation supported the high - level operation of international oil prices. Precious metal prices declined, and the prices of major agricultural products and non - ferrous metals showed mixed trends [16]. 3.2 Domestic Large - scale Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the geopolitical situation continued to affect equity assets, and most major broad - based A - share indexes declined. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, large - cap blue - chips were relatively more resilient. Among sectors, banks had the highest gains, while pharmaceuticals and textile and apparel underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51% weekly [18]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 799 billion yuan. The capital market remained stable overall. The bond market fluctuated strongly weekly. Generally, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [21]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose overall. Among major commodity sectors, energy had the highest gains, while precious metals underperformed [22]. 3.3 Large - scale Asset Price Outlook - The market will continue to focus on the Middle - East situation in the short term. The price fluctuations of related large - scale assets, especially energy prices, may increase. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation [23].
全球资产配置每周聚焦:通胀预期升温,全球权益多数回调-20250623
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-06-23 02:46
大 类 资 产 配 置 相关研究 - 证券分析师 金倩婧 A0230513070004 jinqj@swsresearch.com 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 林遵东 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 涂锦文 A0230123070009 tujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 涂锦文 (8621)23297818× tujw@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 06 月 23 日 通胀预期升温,全球权益多数回调 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250614-20250620) 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 策 ⚫ 本周(20250614–20250620)。本周美联储维持利率不变符合市场预期,但是联储将今年个人消费支 出价格指数涨幅的预测中值从 3 月份的 2.7%升至 3%,显著高于美联储 2%的 ...
持续激发中国民间投资活力 发改委推介项目超3万亿元
Chang Jiang Shang Bao· 2025-06-23 00:44
长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 徐靓丽 "全国向民间资本推介项目平台"数据显示,截至今年6月20日,全国向民间资本推介项目达11745个,总 投资额10.14万亿元。 多地发布重大项目清单 国家统计局日前发布的数据显示,随着一系列促进民营经济发展的政策措施落地实施,民间项目投资稳 定增长。1—5月份,民间投资同比持平。其中,民间项目投资(扣除房地产开发民间投资)同比增长 5.8%。分行业看,住宿和餐饮业民间投资增长25.3%,增速比1—4月份加快2.6个百分点;文化、体育和 娱乐业民间投资增长10.0%,增速加快2.1个百分点;基础设施民间投资增长10.0%,增速加快0.4个百分 点;制造业民间投资增长8.1%。 2025年以来,多地持续面向民间资本推介投资项目清单,鼓励和吸引民间资本参与重大项目建设。湖北 省发展改革委发布的2025年第一批面向民间资本的投资项目清单,229个项目入选,计划引入民间资本 916.7亿元,涉及光电子、新材料等重点产业领域。山西省发布的2025年第一批向民间资本推介项目名 单,共有项目60个,计划总投资622亿元,计划引入民间资本227亿元,包含产业类项目(含重点产业链 供应链项目 ...