Group 1: Precious Metals - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors on metal prices, particularly in a tight supply-demand balance, with monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions being critical influences [1] - Recent adjustments in precious metal prices are attributed to a decline in risk appetite, influenced by disappointing earnings reports from US tech stocks and expectations of a strong dollar and Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction [1] - China's central bank continued gold purchases in January, and the increase in gold ETF holdings will support gold prices [1] Group 2: Copper - Ongoing macroeconomic pressures are impacting copper prices, with expectations of strategic reserves providing some support [2] - The establishment of a "copper concentrate strategic reserve" aims to enhance resource control and mitigate overseas supply disruptions, while AI-driven infrastructure demands are expected to support copper prices [2] - Despite macroeconomic pressures, copper prices are anticipated to stabilize due to strategic premium support [2] Group 3: Aluminum - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to a combination of macroeconomic factors and seasonal demand weakness, with a decline in processing rates observed [2] - The ISM services PMI in the US returned to expansion, but lower-than-expected ADP employment figures contributed to price fluctuations [2] - Social inventory trends indicate a continued accumulation during the off-season [2] Group 4: Tin - Tin prices are experiencing downward pressure due to macroeconomic factors and reduced funding, but there is resilience in downstream purchasing as prices decline [2] - Increased activity in the Indonesian tin market and supply recovery in Myanmar may lead to marginally looser supply conditions [2] Group 5: Energy Metals - Demand for lithium remains strong despite a four-week inventory reduction, with expectations of preemptive battery demand due to changes in export tax policies [3] - The cobalt sector faces high prices due to tight raw material supplies, while companies are extending their reach into downstream markets to enhance competitive advantages [3] - Rare earth prices, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxides, are rising due to tight supply-demand dynamics [3] Group 6: Strategic Metals - Tungsten prices are on the rise due to long-term contracts and supply-demand dynamics, with a notable increase in prices across the industry [3] - The uranium market is seeing long-term contract prices reach a ten-year high, driven by rigid supply and ongoing nuclear power development [3]

Market Overview - After a volatile week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed above 50,000 points for the first time, with futures slightly down on Monday [2][12] - The DJIA surged by 1,200 points, approximately 2.5%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose by about 2% each [2][12] - Bitcoin prices rebounded above $70,000 after dropping below $61,000, reflecting a recovery in investor sentiment [2][12] Technology Sector Insights - The software sector experienced a much-needed rebound after eight consecutive days of decline, with significant buying activity returning [3][13] - Analysts emphasize that the technology sector's performance is crucial for sustainable market growth, particularly the software stocks [3][13] - Morgan Stanley's analysts predict further upside for U.S. tech stocks, driven by strong sales prospects fueled by AI trends [16] Economic Data and Reports - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for January, initially scheduled for release last week, is now set to be published on Wednesday, with expectations of a 55,000 increase in jobs [14] - The Consumer Price Index report for January is expected to show a year-over-year increase of 2.5% [14] Systematic Selling Pressure - Goldman Sachs warns that if the S&P 500 falls below 6,707 points, it could trigger up to $80 billion in systematic selling pressure from trend-following funds [18] - The firm estimates that approximately $33 billion in selling pressure could occur if the market declines further this week [18][19] Focus Stocks - Precious metals saw a pre-market rally, with Austin Gold up 7% and Namib Minerals up 6% [20] - Hims & Hers faced a significant drop of 17% after removing a generic weight loss drug from the market [20] - QuantumScape continued its upward trend, rising over 19% after starting solid-state battery pilot production [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the active trading environment in the Shenzhen Shui Bei precious metals market, driven by dual demand from consumers preparing for the Spring Festival and investors looking to capitalize on lower gold and silver prices following significant price fluctuations [2][4]. Group 1: Market Activity - As the Spring Festival approaches, there is a surge in customer inquiries and purchases of gold jewelry, including necklaces, rings, bracelets, and chains, indicating strong consumer demand [2][3]. - Many consumers are taking advantage of lower prices to buy gold and silver bars, while some are also engaging in gold recycling [2][4]. - The market has seen a significant increase in trading activity, with reports of customers lining up to sell gold back to retailers and others looking to buy at perceived low points [7][9]. Group 2: Price Fluctuations - The article notes that gold and silver prices experienced extreme volatility, with silver prices dropping by 36% in a single day and gold prices falling over 12%, marking the largest daily drop in 40 years [6][11]. - Following this "epic" drop, gold prices rebounded above $5,000 per ounce, while silver prices also saw a recovery, indicating a potential market correction [6][11]. - Despite the recovery, prices remain sensitive to market conditions, with expectations that they may rise as the holiday approaches [15]. Group 3: Silver Premiums - Silver premiums have surged significantly, with reports indicating that premiums rose from 3.8 yuan per gram to as high as 6 yuan per gram, creating challenges for retailers [11][13]. - Retailers are facing difficulties in sourcing silver due to high premiums and limited availability, leading to a situation where some shops can only offer limited quantities of investment-grade silver bars [9][14]. - The article suggests that smaller silver bars tend to have higher premiums due to increased manufacturing costs, making them less attractive for investment purposes [14].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On February 9, the domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results, with platinum rising over 10%, silver over 8%, and palladium over 7% [1][2]. - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1664.20 points, up 34.86 points or 2.14% from the previous trading day [1]. - The overall commodity index also increased by 48.07 points, closing at 2294.88 points, reflecting a similar 2.14% rise [1]. Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals experienced a strong rebound, led by platinum's increase of 10.58%, silver's rise of 8.90%, and palladium's gain of 7.59% [2]. - Factors contributing to this rally include a weaker US dollar, increased buying interest, and China's central bank's gold purchases in January, which totaled 40,000 ounces, exceeding the previous month's 30,000 ounces [2]. - Despite positive consumer confidence in the US, the dollar index was not significantly boosted, and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve supported bullish sentiment in the precious metals market [2]. Group 3: Industrial Metals Insights - Industrial metals also saw gains, with lithium carbonate rising over 3% due to ongoing inventory depletion [3]. - The price of lithium carbonate briefly surpassed 140,000 yuan per ton, supported by a tight supply-demand balance despite lower production during the Chinese New Year [3]. - Data showed that lithium carbonate weekly production was 20,744 tons, down 825 tons week-on-week, while social inventory decreased by 2,019 tons, reinforcing the expectation of sustained demand [3]. Group 4: Specific Commodity Trends - Styrene experienced a significant drop of nearly 3%, attributed to weakening cost support from oil prices and declining demand as the Chinese New Year approached [4]. - The market anticipates an increase in styrene supply due to returning maintenance schedules, while downstream demand is expected to decrease during the holiday [4]. - For silicon and manganese silicon, both commodities fell over 1%, with current low iron water production limiting upward price potential [5]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to uncertainties surrounding upcoming US economic data releases, which may impact precious metals [2]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to face short-term limitations on price rebounds due to macroeconomic influences and slowing transaction volumes as the holiday approaches [3]. - The outlook for silicon and manganese silicon prices will depend on the balance between supply excess and demand resilience in the steel sector [5].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations with a recent upward trend, supported by geopolitical tensions and ongoing de-dollarization efforts, while the U.S. economic indicators present mixed signals [1][2][3][4][5] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of February 6, London spot gold closed at $4,966.61 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of $86.58 per ounce since January 30, marking a rise of 1.77% [1] - The highest gold price reached $5,091.95 per ounce, while the lowest was $4,402.06 per ounce during the week [1] - The Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for the fifteenth consecutive month, which adds confidence to the precious metals market [1][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 52.6, indicating expansion and surpassing expectations [2] - The U.S. labor market showed signs of deterioration, with ADP employment numbers at 22,000, below previous and expected figures [2] - The U.S. non-farm payroll report is delayed until February 11, and the CPI report until February 13, due to the government shutdown [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Geopolitical Factors - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson indicated that the current interest rate stance is appropriate for the economy, with expectations of inflation trends improving later in the year [3] - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, and trade agreements have been reached with India and Argentina [3] Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Gold - The long-term trend for gold remains strong, driven by monetary expansion and fiscal deficits, challenging the dollar's credit system [5] - The ongoing global de-dollarization trend is expected to enhance gold's role as a pricing anchor, providing upward momentum for precious metals [5] - The combination of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, increasing geopolitical uncertainties, and global de-dollarization trends supports gold prices in the medium to long term [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and ongoing de-dollarization, which are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of February 6, London spot gold closed at $4,966.61 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of $86.58 per ounce since January 30, representing a 1.77% rise [1]. - The highest and lowest prices for gold last week were $5,091.95 and $4,402.06 per ounce, respectively [1]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for gold and silver on February 5, indicating a move to mitigate risks through deleveraging [1]. - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 52.6, exceeding expectations, while the services PMI rose to 53.8, marking a new high for 2024 [2]. - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness, with ADP employment numbers at 22,000, below previous figures and expectations [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the fifteenth consecutive month, reaching 7,419 million ounces (approximately 2307.567 tons) as of the end of January [3]. - This increase in gold reserves is seen as a confidence booster for the precious metals market [1][3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The long-term trend for gold remains strong, supported by factors such as monetary expansion, fiscal deficit monetization, and increasing demand for gold as a safe asset amid global geopolitical instability [5]. - The ongoing de-dollarization trend is expected to position gold as a new pricing anchor, enhancing its upward momentum [5]. - The combination of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, increasing global uncertainties, and de-dollarization trends provides medium to long-term support for gold prices [5].

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market - Gold experienced a significant rebound, soaring nearly 4% in a single day, with prices approaching $4955, and currently trading around $5025 [1] - Silver showed even more volatility, plummeting 10% before rebounding over 9% to close at $77.50, and is now trading around $81.79 [1] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices close higher, with the Dow Jones rising by 1206.95 points, a 2.47% increase, reaching a record close above 50000 points [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Signals - Federal Reserve officials indicated the possibility of one or two rate cuts to address the weak labor market, marking the first mention of rate cuts since the recent market downturn [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March is estimated at 19.9%, with an 80.1% chance of maintaining current rates [4] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - Investors are focused on the upcoming non-farm payroll data, with expectations of job growth between 60,000 and 80,000, which could influence rate cut expectations if the numbers fall short [8] - The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) is also set to be released, with predictions of a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [10] Group 5: Market Signals and Risks - The "Hindenburg Omen" has been triggered multiple times in the past six months, historically indicating potential market tops, suggesting that investors may face further losses despite recent rebounds [12] Group 6: Geopolitical Developments - U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations have concluded temporarily, with ongoing tensions regarding Iran's nuclear program and U.S. sanctions [13][15] - Developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation include the arrest of a suspect involved in an attack on a Russian general, highlighting ongoing geopolitical tensions [17]

皇御贵金属公司办公环境的设计充分考虑了员工的健康与福祉。充足的自然采光、高效的空气净化系统 以及随处可见的绿植，共同营造了一个"生态健康型"的工作场所。员工们在这样的环境中工作，身心愉 悦、创造力迸发，工作效率也能得到显著提升。这种绿色办公空间的打造，不仅仅是硬件设施的升级， 更是对传统办公模式的一次深刻变革。它体现了皇御贵金属对员工福祉的高度关注，以及对人与自然和 谐共生理念的坚定践行。 皇御的社会责任感，从未止步于交易平台和办公空间。回首十余载发展历程，公司始终将回馈社会视为 企业使命的重要组成部分。在贵金属行业，皇御以强大的技术保障和贴心的客户服务，护航每一笔交 易，体现了对投资者的责任。而在社会公益方面，皇御同样以慷慨解囊的姿态，积极投身于教育扶贫、 环保公益等多个领域，与各大公益机构携手，将企业的温暖与力量传递给更多有需要的人。 此次荣获「7+绿色办公室」奖项，正是皇御将"企业持续发展"与"企业社会责任"深度融合的生动写照。 它证明了，企业发展与环境保护是可以相辅相成、共生共荣的。未来，皇御贵金属将继续在贵金属行业 深耕的同时，推动社会向绿色化、低碳化的方向发展，贡献坚实而温暖的力量。 世界绿色组织 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market is experiencing increased volatility and overall weakness, influenced by geopolitical tensions, a stronger dollar, and diverging global economic growth expectations [3][15]. Group 1: Market Overview - The energy sector is expected to face downward pressure on oil prices due to anticipated supply being relatively loose [15]. - Precious metals are showing a "short-term pullback, long-term bullish" trend, with gold prices supported by global uncertainties and ongoing central bank purchases [15]. - Industrial metals are experiencing significant differentiation, with demand for metals related to new energy, AI, and power transition remaining resilient [15]. - The competition for strategic resources like rare earths is intensifying, with supply chain security becoming a key focus for various countries [15]. Group 2: Commodity Trends - The overall trend in commodities is characterized as oscillating, with strong bullish sectors including non-ferrous metals, precious metals, and energy chemicals, while agricultural products are underperforming [16]. - Notable bullish commodities include tin, gold, lithium carbonate, and alumina, while bearish markets include rebar, iron ore, hot-rolled steel, and live pigs [16]. - The global financial market is maintaining a mixed oscillating pattern, with stable macro sentiment and no extreme risks or strong stimulus policies impacting commodity pricing [16]. Group 3: Trading Strategies and Performance - The company executed a bearish strategy on caustic soda, achieving a maximum profit of 25% before exiting the position [17]. - A bearish strategy was also implemented for live pigs, with entry points set between 11,500-11,600, stop-loss at 11,700-11,800, and take-profit at 11,400-11,300, based on supply and inventory fundamentals [17]. - Alumina is being closely monitored due to its significant price increase, indicating a strong bullish trend [18]. Group 4: Reflections and Future Strategies - The effectiveness of trend trading is highlighted, with caustic soda continuing its downward trend and alumina experiencing rapid upward movement [21]. - The market is showing extreme differentiation, necessitating a focus on strong trend commodities while avoiding weak and volatile trades [21]. - Strict risk management practices are in place, including position limits and defined stop-loss and take-profit levels, with ongoing monitoring of alumina's bullish trend and live pigs' bearish trend [21].

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2026 年 02 月 09 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 价格波动较大，向好趋势不改 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260202-20260206 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，环比上周 1）上证指数下跌 1.27%，深证成指下跌 2.11%，沪深 300 下跌 1.33%，有色金属（申 万）指数下跌 8.51%，跑输沪深 300 指数 7.18 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属下跌 ...