Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe-haven sentiment rebounds [2]. - Silver: Reaches a new high [2]. - Copper: The strengthening of the LME spot premium supports the price [2]. - Zinc: Pay attention to the upper pressure [2]. - Lead: The reduction in overseas inventories supports the price [2]. - Tin: Strong upward trend [2]. - Aluminum: Oscillates with a slight upward bias [2]. - Alumina: Ranges within a certain interval [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Oscillates and adjusts [2]. - Palladium: Follows with a slight retracement [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, with wide - range oscillatory operation [2]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel raises the oscillation center, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,027.18 with a daily increase of 0.09%, and the night - session closing price was 1031.00 with a night - session increase of 0.14%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 21030 with a daily increase of 0.39%, and the night - session closing price was 21943.00 with a night - session increase of 4.14% [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold increased by 630 kg, and the inventory of Comex Silver decreased by 2,255,181 troy ounces [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The minimum margin ratio for margin trading on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was raised from 80% to 100. The US Supreme Court failed to rule on the Trump tariff policy case again, and the Nasdaq maintained a 1% decline. The US November retail sales unexpectedly strengthened, the PPI rebounded year - on - year, and the December existing - home sales were the strongest since 2023 [4][6][7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 103,870 with a daily increase of 1.54%, and the night - session closing price was 103660 with a night - session decrease of 0.20%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index increased by 22,824 [8]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The LME copper inventory increased by 75 tons, and the LME copper premium strengthened, with an increase of 25.92 compared to the previous day [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to the gold and silver section, also including that global copper demand is expected to increase significantly by 2040 driven by AI and defense. The 2026 copper premium proposed by Pan - Pacific Copper to Japanese domestic customers reached a record high of $330 per ton [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24475 with a daily increase of 0.80%, and the trading volume increased by 54828 [11]. - **Premium and Inventory**: The LME CASH - 3M premium increased by 21.55, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons [11]. - **News**: The US Supreme Court failed to rule on the Trump tariff policy case, and the US November retail sales unexpectedly strengthened [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17385 with a daily increase of 0.14%, and the trading volume increased by 6891 [14]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The LME lead inventory decreased by 3725 tons, and the LME CASH - 3M premium decreased by 0.18 [14]. - **News**: Similar to the above, including US economic data and Fed officials' stances [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 413,170 with a daily increase of 8.92%, and the night - session closing price was 436,540 with a night - session increase of 9.18% [18]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The Shanghai Tin inventory increased by 862 tons, and the LME tin (spot/three - month) premium increased by 22 [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US will suspend visas for 75 countries, the US November retail sales exceeded expectations, the yen reached an 18 - month low, and other news [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: For aluminum, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24595, and the trading volume decreased by 47846. For alumina, the closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2800, and the trading volume decreased by 273575. For cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the main contract was 23380, and the trading volume decreased by 8122 [21]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons, and the LME aluminum premium was 22.09 [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: Fed officials' stances on interest rates, and other news [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum has a trend intensity of 0, and palladium has a trend intensity of 0 [25]. - **Related News**: US economic data, Iran situation, US Supreme Court's non - ruling on Trump tariffs, Trump's chip tariff policy, and other news [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 140,940, and the trading volume decreased by 206,996. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 13,925, and the trading volume decreased by 71,570 [28]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses, China implemented export license management for some steel products, Indonesia planned to revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula, and other news [28][29][31].

2026.01.15 本文字数：2139，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 此前，英伟达凭借人工智能概念股热潮，一直在全球金融市场占据领先地位。但长期被视为传统避险资 产的白银，依托贵金属属性与工业实用价值的双重加持，上演了一场出人意料的逆袭。 从历史上看，黄金一直是这两种贵金属中价值更高的品种，在金融与贸易领域常被奉为 "金本位"的标 杆。然而，随着市场趋势与工业需求的转变，白银的价值正在被挖掘。 据企业市值数据平台companiesmarketcap 显示，持续创下历史新高的白银，在周三市值突破5万亿美 元，超过英伟达成功跻身全球价值第二高的资产，仅次于黄金。 首先通胀会侵蚀纸币储蓄的价值，促使更多人投向白银等有形资产。而地缘政治不确定性以及最新升级 的美联储独立性担忧的局面，可能会为白银价格进一步冲高创造必要条件。 全球央行与政府政策对贵金属的价值有着显著影响。历史上，央行一直将黄金作为储备资产，但如今部 分投资者和政府对白银的兴趣正日益浓厚。若央行采取行动丰富储备资产组合，也可能增加对白银的需 求，从而影响其市场价格。 推动白银这一轮涨势的并非只有避险资产需求。供需平衡是一个不可忽视的因素 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，1月15日，贵金属板块短线走高，湖南白银、晓程科技涨超4%，招金黄金、四川黄金、山 东黄金跟涨。 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices' short - term upward space is limited due to supply surplus and geopolitical uncertainties [1]. - Precious metals remain strong under the influence of high US economic data and the tense Iran situation [2]. - Base metals show various trends affected by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment [3][4][5]. Summary by Category - **Crude Oil**: EIA data shows a large increase in US commercial crude inventories. Geopolitical factors cause price fluctuations, and supply surplus restricts price increases [1]. - **Precious Metals**: High US economic data and the tense Iran situation support the strength of precious metals [2]. - **Copper**: The market focuses on geopolitical risks and the 105,000 - level of Shanghai copper's volume and position [3]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum is at a high level, with a divergence between the market and fundamentals. High - profit aluminum plants can consider selling hedging [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity and cost - increasing pressure in some areas [5]. - **Alumina**: The domestic alumina market is in surplus, with falling costs and a bearish outlook on the spot [6]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market has high capital inflow, but high prices have a negative impact on consumption, and the price may回调 [7]. - **Lead**: Shanghai lead is affected by factors such as inventory pressure, production changes, and cost increases, with a price range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market is active, with price rebounds in the upstream. Stainless steel has increased production expectations, and short - term trading is policy - and sentiment - driven [9]. - **Tin**: Shanghai tin is rising rapidly, mainly driven by domestic trading and sentiment. High prices suppress demand, and supply is stable [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is active, with changes in the sales strategy of upstream lithium salt plants. The total inventory increases, and the price is strong but uncertain [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market has weak supply and demand, with a stalemate in spot prices and a volatile futures market [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a range - bound state, with a downward - adjusted production forecast and a shift in the trading logic [13]. Group 2: Ferrous Metals and Building Materials Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The ferrous metals and building materials markets are affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, seasonal factors, and policy expectations, showing different trends [14][15][16]. Summary by Category - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The steel market is in a range - bound state, with weak domestic demand and high exports. The market is cautious, and the price may fluctuate in a range [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile, with a risk of high - level fluctuations [15]. - **Coke**: The price is in a range - bound state, with a slight increase in production and unchanged inventory. The market expects a strong - side fluctuation [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is in a range - bound state, with an increase in total inventory. The market expects a strong - side fluctuation [17]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price rebounds, with an increase in manganese ore prices and a decrease in silicon manganese production and inventory. It is recommended to buy on dips [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is relatively strong, with a decrease in supply and inventory. It is recommended to buy on dips [19]. Group 3: Shipping and Energy - Related Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The shipping and energy - related product markets are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes, showing complex trends [20][21][22]. Summary by Category - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Airlines are reducing prices to compete for cargo, and the "rush - shipping" effect is uncertain. The 04 - contract valuation is driven by market sentiment [20]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil market may be supported by feed demand in the future, while the low - sulfur fuel oil market has a weak supply - demand situation [21]. - **Asphalt**: The impact of the Iran situation on asphalt is limited, and the upward driving force is weak after the price has factored in the supply reduction expectation [22]. Group 4: Chemical Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The chemical product markets are affected by factors such as raw material prices, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes, showing different trends [23][24][25]. Summary by Category - **Urea**: The price is rising strongly, with good factory sales and increasing demand. The market is expected to be strong - side volatile [23]. - **Methanol**: The futures price is strong due to geopolitical conflicts, but the demand is weakening, and the port de - stocking speed may slow down [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is rising, with sufficient supply and high port inventory. The medium - and long - term de - stocking is difficult [25]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, with a decrease in port inventory and good export markets [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The price is supported by factors such as rising oil prices, supply reduction, and stable demand [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC may have a chance for month - spread arbitrage in the short term and is expected to reduce capacity in the long term. Caustic soda is in a weak state, and the integrated profit may be compressed [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The price is in a range - bound state, with weak short - term upward driving force for PX and the main driving force for PTA coming from raw materials [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas, and the demand is weak. The price may be volatile in the short term and is under long - term pressure [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade Resin**: Short - fiber demand is weakening, and bottle - grade resin has a strong price. The absolute prices follow raw materials [31]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product markets are affected by factors such as weather conditions, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations, showing different trends [32][33][34]. Summary by Category - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are in a weak - side fluctuation, and domestic soybean imports are at a record high. The price of soybean meal may follow the weak trend of US soybeans [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The price of RIN in the US is rising, which is beneficial to soybean oil. Palm oil is affected by policies in Indonesia. The overall market is expected to be range - bound [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed price is under pressure due to the US agricultural report and the expectation of China - Canada relations. It may rebound if the relations do not improve [37]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The price is in a callback, with tight supply at the grassroots level and cautious demand [38]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures are in a wide - range oscillation, affected by factors such as policy - grain release and inventory [39]. - **Hogs**: The futures price is rising, but the spot price is stable. The pig price may have a low point in the first half of next year [40]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is strong, and the futures price is weak. The egg price is expected to rise in the first half of 2026, and a long - near and short - far strategy is recommended [41]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton report is positive, and the Zhengzhou cotton is in a high - level oscillation. The demand is stable in the off - season, and the price may be adjusted [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has different production progress in India and Thailand. The domestic sugar price may have limited rebound due to the expected increase in production [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price is rising, and the spot market has increased cold - storage sales. The high price and poor quality may affect the de - stocking speed [44]. - **Timber**: The price is at a low level, with a decrease in supply and demand. The low inventory provides some support [45]. - **Pulp**: The futures price is stable, with weak downstream demand and high inventory. The price increase is limited [46]. Group 6: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The financial product markets are affected by factors such as regulatory policies, market sentiment, and economic data, showing different trends [47][48]. Summary by Category - **Stock Index**: A - shares are in a high - level oscillation, and the increase in the margin ratio for margin trading cools down the sentiment. The equity market in the Greater China region is expected to be strong - side volatile [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures price shows a differentiated trend, and the strategy of flattening the yield curve is recommended. Policy announcements may affect the market sentiment [48].

- The report focuses on the analysis of the industries where Northbound funds have increased their holdings, particularly highlighting sectors such as power and new energy equipment, electronics, and metal materials and mining[1][5][13] - Northbound funds' total holdings in A-shares amounted to approximately 2.59 trillion yuan as of December 31, 2025, representing an increase of about 46 billion yuan compared to September 30, 2025[1][5][13] - Relative to the CSI 300 Index, Northbound funds were significantly overweight in the power and new energy equipment sector, with an allocation ratio of approximately 18.0%, compared to 8.6% in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in an overweight of about 9.5%[5][15] - The top five primary industries with the highest net inflows of Northbound funds in Q4 2025 were metal materials and mining, electronics, power and new energy equipment, telecommunications, and insurance[6][20] - The top five secondary industries with the highest net inflows of Northbound funds in Q4 2025 were new energy vehicle equipment, basic non-ferrous metals, communication equipment, precious metals, and components and devices[6][25]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a seller's neutral volatility strategy is recommended as they tend to move upwards [2]. - For the black metals sector, which experiences significant fluctuations, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable [2]. - For precious metals, as they rebound and rise, a bull spread combination strategy is suggested [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts. For example, the latest price of copper futures (CU2602) is 103,390, down 520 (- 0.50%) with a trading volume of 16.55 million lots and an open interest of 15.95 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: It shows the volume and open - interest put - call ratios (PCR) of different metal options. For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.40, with a change of - 0.05, and the open - interest PCR is 0.66, with a change of 0.02 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: The pressure and support levels of option underlying assets are analyzed. The pressure point of copper is 110,000 and the support point is 98,000 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility data of various metal options are given, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, etc. The at - the - money implied volatility of copper is 33.62% [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread combination strategy of call options; volatility strategy - construct a short - volatility seller's option combination strategy; spot long - hedging strategy - hold a spot long position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - **Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Tin, Lithium Carbonate**: Similar strategies are provided, mainly including directional strategies (such as bull spread combination strategies for some), volatility strategies (such as short - volatility strategies or selling call + put option combination strategies), and spot hedging strategies [10][11][12]. - **Precious Metals (Silver)**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread combination strategy of call options; volatility strategy - construct a short - volatility option seller's combination strategy with a bullish bias; spot hedging strategy - hold a spot long position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. - **Black Metals**: - **Rebar**: Volatility strategy - construct a short - volatility selling call + put option combination strategy with a bearish bias; spot long - covered strategy - hold a spot long position + sell call options [14]. - **Iron Ore, Ferroalloys, Industrial Silicon, Glass**: Similar strategies are given, covering directional, volatility, and spot hedging strategies [14][15][16].

在持续通胀、美元走弱、各国央行需求上升以及投资者在经济不确定性中寻求避险资产等多重因素的 共同作用下，大量资金正涌入白银市场。那么，白银何时可以跨越近在咫尺的100美元呢？ 2026.01. 15 本文字数：2139，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 周三，今年势如破竹的白银期货价格再次大涨，连续攻克90-93共四个整数关口。过去五年间，白银 价格稳步攀升，2025年开启的这轮涨势尤为引人注目，区间累计涨幅已超过200%。 历史性超越 据企业市值数据平台companiesmarketcap 显示，持续创下历史新高的白银，在周三市值突破5万亿美 元，超过英伟达成功跻身全球价值第二高的资产，仅次于黄金。 此前，英伟达凭借人工智能概念股热潮，一直在全球金融市场占据领先地位。但长期被视为传统避险 资产的白银，依托贵金属属性与工业实用价值的双重加持，上演了一场出人意料的逆袭。 从历史上看，黄金一直是这两种贵金属中价值更高的品种，在金融与贸易领域常被奉为 "金本位"的 标杆。然而，随着市场趋势与工业需求的转变，白银的价值正在被挖掘。 首先通胀会侵蚀纸币储蓄的价值，促使更多人投向白银等有形资产。而地缘政治不确 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2026 年 01 月 15 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国 12 月通胀压力继续缓解，为 2026 年美联储继续宽松货币政策提供理据； 伊朗动荡延续，美国继续呼吁美国公民离开伊朗，美联储降息预期与地缘政治风 险继续推动贵金属板块偏强运行，伦敦黄金逼近 4650 美元/盎司关口；中国 12 月出口超预期以及中国股市偏强运行，增厚了工业贵金属的牛市氛围，14 日亚盘 时段伦敦白银一度突破 91 美元/盎司关口。我们认为 2025 年 12 月底的回调已经 充分释放贵金属内部积累的调整风险，总体看在国 ...

专业分析指出，此轮贵金属以及有色金属上涨行情主要是由市场避险情绪与货币政策预期双轮驱动。目 前来看，金属价格的上涨行情尚未结束，价格中长期上涨的潜力仍存。短期来看，市场波动可能会加 剧。 每日经济新闻 消息面上，美国国务院第三次发出警告，敦促美国公民立即离开伊朗。美联储周三公布的褐皮书显示， 美国大多数地区的经济活动在近期有所增长。多位美联储地区联储最近重申年内温和降息的可能性，同 时强调央行独立性对维持物价稳定不可或缺，表态谨慎降息立场。 1月14日，受地缘政治风险加剧影响，金价持续上攻，盘中一度突破4650美元关口，盘中受美褐皮书公 布数据及美联储票委谨慎降息表态影响，金价震荡回调，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨0.76%报 4633.90美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨1.39%，黄金股ETF（159562）涨 2.13%，有色金属ETF基金（516650）涨0.95%。 ...

兴业证券认为，银价长期中枢抬升，工业属性放大弹性。美元周期定方向，金银长期中枢上移的趋势不 变；工业属性扩弹性，当经济周期上行或者宽财政、宽流动性时，金银比的阶段性修复行情会彰显白银 价格的弹性。当前，外国投资者持有美国国债占比持续下降，根据特里芬悖论，美元无法保持长期的稳 定性，货币属性的回摆将持续抬升金银的价格中枢。 1月14日，贵金属市场延续强势表现，白银领涨。国内白银期货大涨8%，再创上市以来新高。在海外市 场，伦敦现货银价也历史性地突破90美元/盎司关口。 平安证券认为，美国政府带来的不确定性、美国债务问题持续以及科技产业主导地位弱化共振演绎下， 美元信用预计将进一步走弱，白银货币属性有望持续驱动。此外白银长周期供给端刚性持续，海外制造 业重建有望打开需求空间，供需基本面持续向好。 ...