Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market with over 17.5 billion in main capital inflows, particularly highlighted by Northern Rare Earth's strong performance in A-shares [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen significant capital inflows, with Northern Rare Earth topping the A-share capital absorption list [1] - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) experienced a price surge of over 4.2%, closing up 3.45%, and achieving a new listing high with a total trading volume of 1.25 billion [1] - The ETF recorded a net subscription of 33 million units in a single day, accumulating 258 million in the last three days and 321 million over the past 20 days [1] Group 2: Price Movements and Regulations - On October 10, Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel announced price increases, coinciding with new export control regulations from the Ministry of Commerce on rare earth-related items and technologies [2][3] - The new regulations expand the scope of export controls to include rare earth secondary resource recovery technologies, covering the entire rare earth industry chain and impacting sectors like semiconductors and artificial intelligence [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, 55 out of 60 companies in the China Non-Ferrous Metal Index reported profits, with over 91% profitability [6] - Northern Rare Earth's net profit surged by 1951%, leading the sector, while Guocheng Mining also saw a significant increase of 1111% [6][7] Group 4: Industry Outlook - Analysts suggest that the non-ferrous metal sector is positioned for a long-term upward price cycle due to capital expenditure trends and increasing demand for strategic metal resources amid global manufacturing investment growth [8] - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) provides diversified exposure across various metals, including copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, which helps mitigate risks associated with investing in single metal sectors [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a 4.44% increase in the week from October 3 to October 10, ranking first among all primary industries. The industrial metals segment rose by 5.35%, while precious metals also saw significant gains [1][15]. - The report highlights that the ongoing decline in real interest rates, coupled with overseas fiscal and tariff pressures, has heightened risk aversion, leading to new highs in precious metals [1][48]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming by 4.08 percentage points [15]. - The industrial metals sector saw a 5.35% increase, while precious metals rose by 4.00% [15]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of October 10, LME copper closed at $10,374 per ton, down 3.05% week-on-week, while SHFE copper rose to ¥85,910 per ton, up 3.37% [2][31]. Supply issues persist, with Freeport indicating a reduction of approximately 470,000 tons due to an incident at Grasberg [2][31]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,746 per ton, up 1.63%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,980 per ton, up 1.45% [3][35]. Social inventory increased by 7.71% to 642,500 tons, indicating potential short-term pressure on prices [3][37]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,985 per ton, down 1.52%, while SHFE zinc rose to ¥22,270 per ton, up 2.04% [39]. Inventory levels fluctuated, with LME inventory decreasing by 4.65% [39]. - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $35,350 per ton, down 4.85%, while SHFE tin rose to ¥286,350 per ton, up 4.10% [45]. Supply constraints from Indonesia are tightening the market [45]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,035.50 per ounce, up 3.15%, and SHFE gold at ¥901.56 per gram, up 5.48% [4][48]. The report notes that the downtrend in real interest rates and ongoing fiscal pressures are beneficial for gold prices [4][48]. Economic Context - The report discusses the impact of U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve's consensus on interest rate cuts, which are expected to further influence the metals market [26][48]. The potential for renewed tariffs on Chinese imports adds uncertainty to the market dynamics [4][49].

中国银河证券指出，中美贸易摩擦再度引发市场关注。市场大概率不会复制4月7日行情。短期来看，外 部环境不确定上升压制市场风险偏好，叠加部分资金获利回吐压力，将加剧市场波动，个股分歧或加 大。但是驱动本轮行情的核心因素并未改变。流动性预计延续向好趋势。在"十五五"规划关键窗口期和 三季报披露窗口期，重点关注新一轮政策聚焦领域和业绩确定性较强板块。配置机会方面，关税冲击 下，关注有色金属（贵金属、工业金属、小金属）、农业、能源行业的投资机会。（1）反内卷："十五 五"时期，反内卷政策将保持延续性，并在现有基础上进一步深化。（2）新质生产力主题：顺应国家战 略、具备真实技术壁垒的科技企业将是A股投资的重要主线。短期关注低位补涨板块，中长期关注产业 趋势突破。（3）大消费板块：扩内需政策进一步落地，有望带动行情向上。供需两端协同发力下，新 消费浪潮正蓬勃兴起。（4）"两重"领域：多地重大工程项目建设加快推进，将推动产业链的完善和发 展。 ...

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 10 月 12 日 美国关税冲击再起，关注黄金、稀 土等板块 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20251006-20251010 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37%，深证成指下跌 1.26%，沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，有色金属（申万） ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to remain focused on domestic policies, with a low likelihood of replicating the market conditions seen on April 7. Short-term uncertainties in the external environment may suppress market risk appetite, leading to increased volatility and divergence among individual stocks. However, the core drivers of the current market trend remain unchanged, with liquidity expected to continue improving [1]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals (precious metals, industrial metals, and minor metals), agriculture, and energy for investment opportunities [1]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue and deepen during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1]. - The theme of new productive forces will be crucial, with technology companies that align with national strategies and possess genuine technological barriers being significant investment targets in the A-share market [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - Short-term attention should be given to sectors that are poised for recovery, while medium to long-term focus should be on industries that are breaking through current trends [1]. - The large consumption sector is anticipated to benefit from the implementation of domestic demand expansion policies, potentially driving market performance upward [1]. - The acceleration of major engineering projects in various regions will promote the improvement and development of industrial chains [1].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to enter a wide-ranging fluctuation phase in the short term, influenced by high valuations and cautious market sentiment, while policy expectations and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may provide support [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently near the 3900-point resistance level, which is anticipated to affect the A-share market in October and prolong the fluctuation period [2]. - The market is likely to experience increased volatility due to external uncertainties and profit-taking pressures, with a focus on mid- to long-term policy expectations [4]. Group 2: Sector Focus - Short-term attention should be on high-dividend and consumer sectors, while mid-term focus shifts to TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors [1]. - Financial sectors such as banks and insurance, as well as industries related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" and environmental protection, are recommended for consideration [2]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in non-ferrous metals (precious, industrial, and minor metals), agriculture, and energy sectors, driven by ongoing policy themes and infrastructure projects [4]. Group 3: Gold Market Outlook - A long-term optimistic view on gold is maintained, with potential opportunities arising from capital reallocation due to the peak of the overseas AI technology wave [3]. - The appropriate allocation of gold in personal asset portfolios is suggested to be between 2-10%, while institutional allocations may be increased [3].

Group 1 - Global risk assets experienced a broad decline, with significant drops in both US and Chinese indices, particularly in technology stocks [2][5][6] - The decline in asset prices is attributed to overseas risk events, including the potential impact of the US government shutdown and renewed trade tensions between the US and China [2][5][6] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, has increased but remains below extreme levels, indicating that the market is not in a state of panic [6][10][12] Group 2 - Since April, asset prices have gradually recovered from a period of excessive pessimism, aided by positive developments such as fiscal expansion in the US and capital expenditures from tech giants [3][7][12] - The report highlights two potential paths for the US economy: one indicating a late-stage stagflation in the service sector and another showing early recovery in manufacturing [12][17] - The upcoming earnings season for US technology companies is crucial to observe whether expectations will align with reality [12][17] Group 3 - The report suggests that while there is no current panic in the market, the higher valuation levels compared to April indicate a lack of "greed" [17] - For Chinese assets, the previous gains were largely driven by alignment with overseas technology trends, which may pose vulnerabilities in the short term [17] - The report recommends focusing on domestic policies and sectors that may benefit from a recovery in domestic demand, such as food and beverage, aviation, and real estate [17]

- The non-ferrous metal index (000819.SH) has increased by 83.14% since 2025, and by 83.87% since April 7, 2025, significantly outperforming the Wind All A Index during the same period [2][11][12] - Public fund holdings in the non-ferrous metal sector have rebounded since August 2025, based on real-time calculations using public market data such as fund net value, disclosed holdings, and research activities [3][15] - ETF holdings in the non-ferrous metal sector have been steadily increasing since July 2025, reflecting the growing popularity of index investment products, with the total scale of public ETF funds exceeding 4.3 trillion yuan by the end of Q2 2025 [3][18][20] - Margin balance in the non-ferrous metal sector has been rising since July 2025, indicating increased investor optimism about the market outlook [3][22][23] - Chip yield characteristics show that the current profitability effect of the non-ferrous metal index is 25.14%, with chip yield reflecting the return rate of current prices relative to historical chip costs [3][25][26] - Institutional research has been most frequent for companies such as Northern Rare Earth, Yunnan Copper, and Chihong Zinc & Germanium in 2025 [4][27][29] - Ganfeng Lithium, Huayou Cobalt, and Zijin Mining have received the highest attention from Snowball platform influencers since September 15, 2025 [4][30][31][32] - Major funds have flowed into companies such as Quartz Co., Bowei Alloy, and Shenghe Resources since September 15, 2025, with large and super-large orders used as proxy variables for major funds [4][34][35][38] - Companies such as Bowei Alloy, Jinli Permanent Magnet, and China Rare Earth have appeared on the Dragon Tiger List since September 15, 2025, reflecting the most active trading dynamics in the market [4][39] - High-frequency shareholder data indicates significant increases in shareholder numbers for companies such as Chifeng Gold, Huafeng Aluminum, and Hunan Gold, which may signal potential risks for subsequent stock prices [4][41][43]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. is experiencing a decline in stock price, with a 3.18% drop on October 10, 2023, and a total market capitalization of 357.13 billion yuan [1]. Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum is engaged in the mining and processing of non-ferrous metals, including molybdenum, tungsten, cobalt, niobium, and phosphorus, and is one of the top five molybdenum producers globally [3][4]. - The company has a comprehensive integrated industrial chain and is the largest tungsten producer, the second-largest cobalt and niobium producer, and a leading copper producer [3][4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum reported a revenue of 94.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 60.07% to 8.67 billion yuan [9]. - The company has distributed a total of 21.56 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.58 billion yuan in the last three years [10]. Production and Growth - The company has increased its focus on precious metals, with the revenue contribution from gold and silver products rising annually [4]. - In 2023, the gold production guidance from its NPM copper-gold mine in Australia is projected to be between 25,000 to 27,000 ounces, representing a year-on-year increase of 56% to 69% [4]. Market Position - Luoyang Molybdenum ranks 34th in terms of market popularity in the A-share market [2]. - The company is classified under the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically in the industrial metals sector, with a focus on copper [9].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced high volatility in the morning session, with notable adjustments in previously hot sectors such as artificial intelligence and solid-state batteries, leading to a deeper decline in the ChiNext Index [1] - As of the midday break, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3913.80 points, down 0.51%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index fell by 1.85% and 3.40%, respectively [1][2] Financing and Investment Trends - On October 9, the net financing inflow in A-shares reached 50.805 billion yuan, marking a new high for the year and the second highest in history, only behind the figure of 107.486 billion yuan on October 8, 2024 [2][4] - The total financing balance in A-shares rose to 24,291.95 billion yuan, setting a new historical record [4] - Notable individual stocks with significant net financing inflows included ZTE Corporation, New Yisheng, and Northern Rare Earth, each exceeding 1 billion yuan [4][5] Sector Performance - The superhard materials sector opened significantly higher, with stocks like Huanghe Xuanfeng hitting the daily limit and Sifangda reaching a 20% increase during the session [7][10] - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on superhard materials, effective from November 8, 2025, which includes synthetic diamond powders and related equipment [10] Industrial Metals Sector - The industrial metals sector continued its strong performance, with stocks such as Pengxin Resources and Baiyin Nonferrous Metals hitting the daily limit, while Jiangxi Copper rose over 7% [12] - The LME copper price reached a new high of $11,000 per ton on October 9, approaching the historical peak of $11,104.5 per ton from May 2024, driven by demand from electric vehicles and energy infrastructure [14]