Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing a concentrated disclosure period for annual performance forecasts, with over 140 companies having released their forecasts by January 13, 2025, and more than half of these companies reporting positive earnings expectations [2] - A clear divergence in performance is emerging, with leading companies in high-growth sectors benefiting from industry advantages and core competitiveness, while some traditional industries are facing losses due to cyclical fluctuations and weak demand [2] Group 1: Leading Companies and Performance - Leading companies are showing remarkable performance, with Zijin Mining expected to report a net profit of 510 to 520 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 59% to 62% from 320.51 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - Other notable companies include WuXi AppTec with a projected net profit of 191.51 billion yuan (up 102.65%), Luxshare Precision with an expected profit of 165.18 to 171.86 billion yuan (up 23.59% to 28.59%), and Shanghai Port Group with a net profit of 134 billion yuan [3] - Cangge Mining and Huayou Cobalt are also expected to report significant profits, with Cangge Mining's net profit projected at 37 to 39.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.41% to 53.10% [3] Group 2: Explosive Growth in Certain Companies - Several companies are expected to achieve explosive growth, with Zhongke Lanyun projecting a net profit of 14 to 14.3 billion yuan, representing a staggering year-on-year increase of 366.51% to 376.51% [4] - Other companies with significant growth rates include Chuanhua Zhili with a profit increase of 256.07% to 361.57%, and Kangchen Pharmaceutical with a growth rate of 243% to 315% [4] - Companies like Tianci Materials and China Shipbuilding Defense are also expected to see profit growth exceeding 150%, with China Shipbuilding Defense projecting a net profit of 9.4 to 11.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 149.61% to 196.88% [4] Group 3: Sector Performance and Trends - The companies with positive earnings forecasts are concentrated in high-growth sectors, particularly in technology, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods [5] - In the technology sector, companies like Daotong Technology and Aibisen are performing well, with Daotong Technology expected to achieve a net profit of 9 to 9.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.42% to 45.10% [5] - The gold sector is experiencing significant growth, with international gold prices reaching record highs, benefiting companies like Zijin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold, which is expected to report a net profit of 30 to 32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70% to 81% [6] Group 4: Challenges in Traditional Industries - In contrast to high-growth sectors, traditional industries are facing significant challenges, with many companies reporting losses due to cyclical fluctuations and weak market demand [7] - The chemical industry is particularly affected, with companies like China Chemical reporting a projected loss of 1.331 billion yuan for the year due to declining product prices [7] - Other sectors, including energy and home furnishings, are also struggling, with companies like Guomei Home and Yijing Optoelectronics forecasting negative profits due to weak demand and other external factors [7]

Group 1: International Gold Market - On Wednesday, international gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, opening at $4586.00 per ounce, reaching a high of $4643.00, and closing at $4626.10 [1][8] - The COMEX gold futures closed at $4633.90 per ounce [8] - The London spot gold price increased by 0.88% from the previous day, with a year-to-date increase of 7.13% [9] Group 2: Economic Data and Monetary Policy - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the PPI and core PPI both rose by 3% year-on-year in November, exceeding market expectations of 2.7% [23] - Federal Reserve officials indicated that challenges in controlling inflation have not been overcome, and restrictive policies need to continue [23] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 240.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 212.2 billion yuan for the day [14] Group 3: Currency and Exchange Rates - The onshore RMB closed at 6.9734 against the USD, appreciating by 31 basis points from the previous trading day [1][19] - The USD index decreased by 0.11% to 99.0753 [19] - The RMB's central parity rate against the USD was reported at 7.0120, depreciating by 17 basis points [1][19] Group 4: Geopolitical Events - The situation in Iran continues to escalate, with reports indicating that the Trump administration has identified 50 high-value military targets in Iran [23] - U.S. officials stated that personnel are being withdrawn from several major bases in the Middle East, which has heightened risk aversion and contributed to the rise in gold prices [23]

Market Overview - The market experienced a pullback after an early surge, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1% and the STAR 50 Index falling more than 2% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.87 trillion yuan, a decrease of 347.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 3,600 stocks in the market declined, indicating a broad-based downturn [1] Sector Performance - The tourism and hotel sector showed strong activity, with stocks like Zhongxin Tourism and Shaanxi Tourism hitting the daily limit [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector also rose, with stocks such as Sichuan Gold and Luoping Zinc Electric reaching the daily limit [1] - The commercial retail sector saw some gains, with Xinhua Department Store and Xinhua Du both achieving consecutive gains [1] Individual Stock Highlights - A total of 32 stocks hit the daily limit today, with a limit-up rate of 62% [1] - Notable stocks with consecutive gains include Bofei Electric (4 consecutive limits) and Waifu Holdings (3 consecutive limits) [1] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, stocks like Sichuan Gold and Luoping Zinc Electric were among the top gainers [1] Precious Metals and Lithium Battery Sector - Recent trends show that spot silver prices surged over 7%, reaching a historic high of $93 per ounce, while gold prices also hit a record high of $4,643 per ounce [3][12] - The rise in precious metals and non-ferrous metals is driven by market risk aversion and expectations regarding monetary policy [3] - The lithium battery sector remained strong, with companies like Keheng Co., Liwang Co., and Xiamen Tungsten rising significantly [3] Commercial Space and AI Applications - The commercial space and AI application sectors faced significant declines, with high-profile stocks like Shengguang Group and Zhejiang Wenhuan hitting the daily limit [8] - The overall sentiment in these sectors has cooled, indicating a potential shift in investor interest [8] Regulatory Developments - Ctrip is under investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation for alleged monopolistic practices, which has impacted the tourism sector positively [20] - The Ministry of Finance has increased support for integrated ecological protection and restoration projects, which may benefit related industries [32]

1月15日，A股三大股指早盘小幅冲高后震荡走势，午后维持低位窄幅震荡走势收盘涨跌分化，其中沪 指跌0.33%报4112.6点，深成指涨0.41%报14306.73点，创业板指涨0.56%报3367.92点，科创50指数跌 0.46%报1493.95点；全市场成交额2.94万亿元，超3100股下跌。 盘面上，AI应用板块大回撤，智谱AI、Sora概念、Kimi概念及AIGC概念等方向领跌，天龙集团、博瑞 传播等多股跌停；商业航天、卫星互联网板块下挫，航天电子、中国卫通等多股跌停；AI制药、医药 商业板块走低，贝瑞基因、岩山科技等多股跌停；国资云概念、空间站概念及文化传媒等板块跌幅居 前。另外，电子化学品板块走高，上海新阳涨超16%；贵金属板块持续走强，四川黄金涨停；光刻机 （胶）板块活跃，东材科技等多股涨停；中芯概念、磷化工、电池及旅游酒店等板块涨幅居前。 热点板块 午后CPO概念震荡拉升，环旭电子涨停，罗博特科、源杰科技、中际旭创、联特科技、仕佳光子、新易 盛均涨超5%。 贵金属板块领涨，四川黄金涨停，赤峰黄金、湖南白银、招金黄金、山东黄金等跟涨。 消息面上，近日现货白银一度涨超7%，历史首次站上每盎司93美 ...

受影响国家覆盖非洲、中东和拉美等地区，包括俄罗斯、泰国、摩洛哥、哥伦比亚、巴西等。此次禁令 标志着特朗普入境限制政策重大升级——截至1月1日，已有39国被实施全面或部分限制。消息传出后， 华盛顿多个外国使馆因未提前获知，正紧急确认本国是否在列及具体影响。 新规下，国务院官员审核签证时需严格判定申请人是否可能成为"公共负担"(即依赖福利或公共援助)。 尽管现行规定已禁止大多数新移民在获得永居权后五年内使用医疗补助、补充营养援助计划等联邦福利 (少数例外)，且州资助项目不受限，政府仍决定强化审查标准。 摘要今日周四(1月15日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1027.86元/克，较前一交易日下跌8.84元，跌幅 0.85%，日内呈现高开低走走势。当日开盘价报1036.49元/克，盘中最高触及1037.88元/克，最低下探至 1026.50元/克。黄金市场已从边缘资产转为主流配置，波动性显著提升;机构持有实物支持的黄金ETF比 例达历史高位65%，若通胀受控、市场情绪逆转，或出现远超以往的大幅回调。 今日周四(1月15日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1027.86元/克，较前一交易日下跌8.84元，跌幅 0.85%， ...

消息面上，去年11月，上善黄金披露了2026财年上半财年（2025年4月-9月）业绩。财报显示，报告期 内上善黄金的收入同比劲增139.8%至7647.4万港元，毛利同比增加25.2%至3373.4万港元，净利润指标 更是扭亏为盈，达到了66.5万港元。 更早前，上善黄金在融资事务上取得了新的重大突破，公司顺利完成了1188万股配售，募集资金净额约 9000万港元。据悉，这部分资金后续将重点投向全球渠道布局与品牌体系建设，核心聚焦黄金智能终端 的规模化铺排与技术升级。 来源：智通财经网 上善黄金(01939)午后飙升逾50%，截至发稿，涨47.5%，报1.18港元，成交额3309.07万港元。 ...

上善黄金(01939)午后飙升逾50%，截至发稿，涨47.5%，报1.18港元，成交额3309.07万港元。 更早前，上善黄金在融资事务上取得了新的重大突破，公司顺利完成了1188万股配售，募集资金净额约 9000万港元。据悉，这部分资金后续将重点投向全球渠道布局与品牌体系建设，核心聚焦黄金智能终端 的规模化铺排与技术升级。 消息面上，去年11月，上善黄金披露了2026财年上半财年（2025年4月-9月）业绩。财报显示，报告期 内上善黄金的收入同比劲增139.8%至7647.4万港元，毛利同比增加25.2%至3373.4万港元，净利润指标 更是扭亏为盈，达到了66.5万港元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report captures global multi - asset investment opportunities (covering domestic assets such as A - shares, bonds, and gold, as well as overseas equity assets like US stocks, Japanese stocks, and Indian stocks) and designs corresponding allocation schemes according to common investment scenarios. All portfolios can be tracked through corresponding ETF/LOF products [7]. - In January 2026, the allocation suggestions are as follows: A - shares may have short - term momentum but also face callback risks, with a focus on cyclical mid - cap blue - chips led by chemicals, domestic AI, satellites, and semiconductors; the domestic bond market is neutral, and short - term varieties can be focused on; US stocks may maintain a neutral shock pattern; Japanese stocks may have a neutral shock pattern; Indian stocks may have a weak shock pattern; gold may remain strong in the short - term but also face volatility risks, and its medium - to - long - term allocation value is significant [7]. - A two - stage robust multi - asset portfolio design method based on "portfolio insurance + risk budget" is introduced, which is decision - making based on risk characteristics, does not rely on asset return forecasts, and has good robustness while considering both return elasticity and risk control [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review and Allocation Outlook 1.1 Market Review - In 2025, gold performed outstandingly, global equity assets showed differentiation (A - shares, Japanese stocks, and US stocks were strong, while Indian stocks declined slightly), and the bond market was relatively sluggish. The return performance of underlying assets was: gold (58.57%) > CSI 800 (23.91%) > Nikkei 225 (22.26%) > Nasdaq 100 (17.50%) > short - term financing (1.78%) > 7 - 10 - year policy - financial bonds (0.22%) > S&P BSE Sensex ( - 0.40%) [16]. 1.2 Asset Allocation Outlook - **A - shares**: Economic prosperity and mild inflation recovery support the medium - to - long - term stock market trend, but there are short - term callback risks. Industry themes such as cyclical mid - cap blue - chips led by chemicals, domestic AI, satellites, and semiconductors can be focused on [18]. - **Domestic bond market**: Due to the risk preference of rising equities and the expectation of mild inflation recovery, bonds are neutral overall, and short - term varieties can be continuously focused on [20]. - **US stocks**: The US economy still has resilience, but due to the downward revision of interest - rate cut expectations and relatively high valuations, US stocks may maintain a neutral shock pattern in the short - term [22]. - **Japanese stocks**: Japan's economy is in a benign "wage - price spiral" and is moderately recovering, but with a marginal net outflow of foreign capital, Japanese stocks may have a neutral shock pattern in the short - term [31]. - **Indian stocks**: The economic prosperity has declined from its peak, and with a marginal net outflow of foreign capital, Indian stocks may have a weak shock pattern in the short - term [34]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical tensions have pushed gold to new highs. It may remain strong in the short - term but also face volatility risks, and its medium - to - long - term allocation value is significant [38]. 2. Robust Portfolio Design Idea: Two - Stage Method of "Portfolio Insurance + Risk Budget" 2.1 Dilemma of Asset Allocation Models in Domestic Investment Applications - The two classic multi - asset portfolio management methods, mean - variance optimization (MVO) and its derivative models, and risk - budget - based models (such as the risk - parity model), have limitations in domestic investment applications. MVO is highly sensitive to changes in returns and risks, and the risk - parity model may lead to an overly low proportion of equity assets in the portfolio [45]. 2.2 Optimization Idea 1: Using Portfolio Insurance Method to Optimize the Sharpe Ratio of High - Risk Assets - The portfolio insurance strategy can optimize the return - risk ratio of high - volatility assets such as A - shares in the medium - to - long - term. Taking the domestic stock - bond CPPI portfolio as an example, it can achieve better risk performance compared to corresponding portfolios [52]. 2.3 Optimization Idea 2: Integrating Target Allocation Central Risk Budget Strategy - By decomposing the risk budget, the target stock - bond allocation central can be integrated into the risk - budget configuration model, and the allocation weights can be dynamically adjusted according to the changes in asset volatility [59]. 2.4 "Portfolio Insurance + Risk Budget": Balancing Return Elasticity and Risk Control - The two - stage combination design method of "portfolio insurance + risk budget" first uses the CPPI method to optimize the Sharpe ratio of single risk assets and then constructs a risk - budget investment portfolio based on the risk characteristics of each sub - portfolio. It can effectively combine return elasticity and risk control and has good robustness [63]. 3. Stock - Bond Target Allocation Central Risk Budget Portfolio 3.1 Investment Scenarios and Scheme Design - In a low - interest - rate environment, the fixed - income plus strategy can alleviate the problem of declining returns of pure - bond assets. Two strategies are designed: the stock - bond target allocation central risk budget strategy (stock - bond RB) and the "CPPI + RB" two - stage stock - bond target allocation central strategy (stock - bond CPPI_RB), with three types of allocation central combinations of 1:9, 2:8, and 3:7 constructed respectively [67][68][69]. 3.2 Portfolio Performance Analysis - During the back - testing period (January 5, 2015 - December 31, 2025), the performance of the strategy integrating the stock - bond target allocation central risk budget is better than that of the fixed - allocation central stock - bond portfolio, and the two - stage stock - bond CPPI_RB portfolio is better than the stock - bond RB portfolio [70]. 3.3 Allocation Weights and Marginal Changes - The stock - bond allocation of the three types of allocation central portfolios meets the requirements of the target allocation central. At the end of December 2025, the stock - bond RB portfolio moderately increased the weight of A - shares and increased the weight of long - term bonds while reducing the weight of short - term bonds within the bond category [75]. 4. Low - Volatility "Fixed - Income Plus" Portfolio 4.1 Investment Scenarios and Scheme Design - To reduce the volatility risk of the stock - bond portfolio during extreme "stock - bond double - kill" market conditions, an appropriate amount of gold is added. The portfolio is designed using the two - stage method of "portfolio insurance (CPPI) + risk budget (RB)", with a target allocation central of stock:gold:bond = 1:1:4 [80][81]. 4.2 Portfolio Performance Analysis - During the back - testing period (January 1, 2015 - December 31, 2025), the low - volatility "fixed - income plus" strategy has an annualized return of 7.08%, an annualized volatility of 3.47%, a maximum drawdown of - 4.92%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.99, and a Calmar ratio of 1.44 [83]. 4.3 Allocation Weights and Marginal Changes - As of December 31, 2025, the latest weights of the strategy are: CSI 800 (10.78%), gold (5.99%), 7 - 10 - year policy - financial bonds (75.09%), and short - term financing (8.14%). In December 2025, the weight of short - term financing was increased, and the weights of other assets were decreased [90]. 4.4 Strategy Implementation: Tracking Based on ETF Assets - The low - volatility "fixed - income plus" strategy can be well tracked by corresponding ETF assets. As of December 31, 2025, the annualized return of the strategy since 2023 is 9.38%, and the annualized returns of the FOF_of_ETFs portfolio based on ETF net value and on - site price are 9.05% and 9.07% respectively [95]. 5. Global Asset Allocation Portfolio 5.1 Investment Scenarios and Scheme Design - In a volatile global situation, global asset allocation can effectively diversify risks and improve the return - risk ratio of the portfolio. A two - stage FOF portfolio design method of "portfolio insurance (CPPI) + risk parity (RP)" is used [102][104]. 5.2 Global Multi - Asset Allocation Strategy I: A - shares + Bonds + Gold + US Stocks - **Performance**: During the back - testing period (January 1, 2014 - December 31, 2025), the annualized return is 11.85%, the annualized volatility is 5.94%, the maximum drawdown is - 7.97%, the Sharpe ratio is 1.91, and the Calmar ratio is 1.49. In 2025, it recorded 20.94% [106]. - **Allocation Weights and Marginal Changes**: As of December 31, 2025, the model allocation weights are: CSI 800 (18.98%), Nasdaq 100 (17.84%), gold (13.66%), and 7 - 10 - year policy - financial bonds (49.51%). In December 2025, the weight of 7 - 10 - year policy - financial bonds was increased, and the weights of other assets were decreased [111]. - **Strategy Implementation**: The strategy can be well tracked by corresponding ETF/LOF assets. As of December 31, 2025, the annualized return of the strategy since 2023 is 16.92%, and the annualized returns of the FOF_of_ETFs portfolio based on ETF net value and on - site price are 16.53% and 17.04% respectively [119]. 5.3 Global Multi - Asset Allocation Strategy II: A - shares + Bonds + Gold + Cross - Border Equities - **Performance**: During the back - testing period (January 1, 2014 - December 31, 2025), the annualized return is 10.25%, the annualized volatility is 5.09%, the maximum drawdown is - 9.97%, the Sharpe ratio is 1.94, and the Calmar ratio is 1.03. In 2025, it recorded 13.56% [126]. - **Allocation Weights and Marginal Changes**: As of December 31, 2025, the model allocation weights are: CSI 800 (9.63%), Nasdaq 100 (9.65%), Nikkei 225 (6.17%), S&P BSE Sensex (17.87%), gold (7.16%), and 7 - 10 - year policy - financial bonds (49.51%). In December 2025, the weights of S&P BSE Sensex and 7 - 10 - year policy - financial bonds were increased, and the weights of other assets were decreased [133]. - **Strategy Implementation**: The strategy can be well tracked by corresponding ETF/LOF assets. As of December 31, 2025, the annualized return of the strategy since 2023 is 14.06%, and the annualized returns of the FOF_of_ETFs portfolio based on ETF net value and on - site price are 13.60% and 14.06% respectively [145].

相关生产商有：铜陵有色（000630） 湖南黄金（002155） 恒邦股份（002237） 湖南白银（002716） 中 金黄金（600489） 豫光金铅（600531） 山东黄金（600547） 盛屯矿业（维权）（600711） 株冶集团 （600961） 赤峰黄金（600988） 西部矿业（601168） 白银有色（维权）（601212）等。 据生意社监测，黄金01月14日最新价格1034.76元/克，最近5天上涨3.20%，10天上涨5.90%。 据生意社监测，黄金01月14日最新价格1034.76元/克，最近5天上涨3.20%，10天上涨5.90%。 相关生产商有：铜陵有色（000630） 湖南黄金（002155） 恒邦股份（002237） 湖南白银（002716） 中 金黄金（600489） 豫光金铅（600531） 山东黄金（600547） 盛屯矿业（维权）（600711） 株冶集团 （600961） 赤峰黄金（600988） 西部矿业（601168） 白银有色（维权）（601212）等。 ...

银河证券表示，全球地缘冲突加剧或将使大国加强对关键战略金属资源的控制与储备，以及引发全球金 属供应链的重塑，这将催化关键战略金属矿产资源的需求与价值重估。全球地缘冲突加剧支撑铜、钨、 钼、钴、稀土磁材等关键战略有色金属价格上涨的逻辑有望延续。此外，美国12月非农就业新增5万人 不及预期，或将提升市场当前对美联储2026年降息2次的预期。叠加地缘冲突升温，也将加大市场避险 需求，利好金价上涨。 1月15日，国际金价震荡回调，盘中跌破4600美元，COMEX黄金期货目前交投于4589美元/盎司附近。 二级市场上，黄金股相关ETF产品走强，截至早盘收盘，黄金ETF华夏（518850）跌0.97%，黄金股 ETF（159562）涨1.34%，其持仓股神宇股份、万国黄金集团涨超10%，四川黄金涨停，湖南白银、晓 程科技等股涨幅居前，明牌珠宝跌停，曼卡龙、潮宏基等股回调走低；有色金属ETF基金（516650）涨 1.59%。 值得注意的是，资金流向上，黄金股ETF（159562）已连续两日获资金布局，1月13日和14日累计"吸 金"1.21亿元。 ...