EIA原油周度数据报告 格林大华期货有限公司 ELIN DAHUA FUTURES CO.,LTD. 2026年3月19日 研究员:王琛 从业资格:F03104620 交易咨询资格:Z0021310 联系方式:wangchen@greendh.com 数据解读:在以色列袭击伊朗南帕尔斯气田后,伊朗随即对沙特、卡塔尔及阿联酋的能源设施展开报复打击,进一步 数据来源:副博 数据来源:船视宝 美国商业原油库存 干欄 492,000- 480,000- 468,000- 456,000- 444,000- 432,000 420,000 408,000 396,000- 01-09 02-06 03-05 04-02 04-30 05-28 06-25 07-23 08-20 09-17 10-15 11-12 12-10 - 2022 - 2023 - 2024 - 2025 == 2026 干燥 48,000- 44,000 40,000- 36,000 32,000 28,000 24,000 20,000- 16,000. 04-02 04-30 05-28 06-25 07-23 08-20 09-17 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The EIA data shows that the accumulation of US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, but the destocking of refined oil products was significant, resulting in a slight increase in the overall oil product inventory [1][5]. - The ongoing conflicts among the US, Israel, and Iran, along with the near - halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for multiple days, have led to production cuts in Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries, and the risk of crude oil price surges remains [1]. - Although measures such as the release of strategic oil reserves, relaxation of sanctions on Russian and Venezuelan oil, and the resumption of Iraqi oil exports have alleviated short - term supply pressure, they are still insufficient to match the previous crude oil shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - The Middle - East situation is becoming increasingly tense, and frequent news about it has a great impact on crude oil prices. It is recommended to participate in the market with caution [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The US, Israel, and Iran are in a state of mutual attacks. Iran has a large oil production and export volume. The Strait of Hormuz, a major crude - oil shipping route, has been nearly shut down for days, causing production cuts in Middle - Eastern countries. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day, accounting for about 6% of the global supply [1]. - The US and Iran have no intention to cease fire currently. Iran's upper - stream oil and gas facilities were attacked on March 18th, and Iran launched a large - scale missile attack on US - related oil and energy facilities in the region [1]. - The IEA has announced the release of up to 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, but the delivery speed is slow. The US is taking measures to relax sanctions to ease supply pressure, and Iran has allowed some ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but the actual traffic is low [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude - oil futures contract, the 2605 contract, rose 8.48% to 814.9 yuan/ton today, with the lowest price at 776.3 yuan/ton, the highest at 823.0 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 5337 to 61,650 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA's latest short - term energy outlook predicts that the Brent crude - oil price in 2026 will be $78.84 per barrel (previously $57.69), and in 2027 it will be $64.47 per barrel (previously $53). Due to the Middle - East conflict, it is expected to remain above $95 per barrel in the next two months and drop to $80 per barrel in the third quarter [4]. - In terms of supply and demand, the EIA expects the global oil production in 2026 to be 107 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast, and the global oil demand to be 105.2 million barrels per day, higher than the previous forecast [4]. - OPEC's latest monthly report maintains its global supply, demand, and economic forecasts. It predicts that the global oil demand will increase by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 to 106.53 million barrels per day and by 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027 to 107.87 million barrels per day [4]. - The IEA has significantly reduced the global crude - oil supply growth forecast for this year from 2.4 million barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day and the demand growth forecast from 0.85 million barrels per day to 0.64 million barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil supply will plummet by 8 million barrels per day in March [4]. Inventory and Production Data - As of the week ending March 13th, US crude - oil inventories increased by 6.156 million barrels, exceeding expectations, while gasoline and refined - oil inventories decreased significantly, and Cushing crude - oil inventories increased by 944,000 barrels [5]. - OPEC's average crude - oil production in February was 28.63 million barrels per day, an increase of 164,000 barrels per day compared to January, mainly due to increased production in Venezuela and Iraq [5]. - US crude - oil production in the week of March 13th decreased by 100,000 barrels per day to 13.668 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high [5]. Consumption Data - The four - week average supply of US crude - oil products decreased to 21.041 million barrels per day, a 1.84% increase compared to the same period last year, with the over - average margin narrowing [6][8]. - Gasoline weekly production decreased by 5.55% to 8.728 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 8.749 million barrels per day, a 0.70% increase compared to the same period last year [8]. - Diesel weekly production increased by 8.22% to 4.399 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 4.014 million barrels per day, a 1.79% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - The single - week supply of US crude - oil products continued to increase by 2.07% month - on - month, driven by the increase in diesel and other oil products [8].

Core Viewpoint - Energy prices have surged significantly due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly affecting natural gas and oil prices, with European natural gas prices rising over 100% since the onset of the Iran conflict [1][3][4]. Group 1: Natural Gas Market - European natural gas prices saw a dramatic increase, with the Dutch TTF natural gas futures for April rising by 35% to a peak of 74 euros per megawatt-hour, before settling at a 25.5% increase at 68.61 euros per megawatt-hour [1][3]. - The conflict in Iran has led to significant supply concerns, with the Qatar Ras Laffan gas facilities suffering missile attacks, which could keep European and Asian natural gas prices elevated for an extended period [3][4]. - The Ras Laffan industrial city, which produces about 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas, has faced severe damage, complicating recovery efforts and potentially leading to prolonged supply disruptions [3][5]. Group 2: Oil Market - Brent crude oil futures surged over 8%, surpassing $111 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions and attacks on oil facilities in the region [2][3]. - The attacks on the Ras Laffan gas facilities and the MINA AL-AHMADI refinery in Kuwait have raised concerns about the stability of oil supply, contributing to the price increases [2][3]. - The Samref refinery in Saudi Arabia was also targeted, indicating a broader trend of attacks on energy infrastructure in the region, which could further impact global oil prices [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Energy stocks in Europe experienced a collective rise, with companies like Equinor up by 8%, Harbour Energy by over 4%, and BP by nearly 3%, reflecting investor sentiment amid rising energy prices [3]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions are expected to keep energy prices high, particularly as Europe approaches the summer months needing to replenish gas inventories [4].

Group 1 - International crude oil prices surged significantly, with Brent crude futures rising by 8.44% to over $110 per barrel, and WTI crude surpassing $96 per barrel as of March 19 [1] - Israeli airstrikes targeted Iran's major natural gas facilities in Bushehr, with threats of further attacks on Iranian infrastructure, leading to heightened tensions in the region [3] - Analysts from Citigroup predict that Brent crude futures could reach $120 per barrel in the coming days, and if energy infrastructure faces widespread attacks, prices could average $130 per barrel in Q2 and Q3 of this year [3] Group 2 - The article discusses the implications of geopolitical tensions on energy prices, particularly focusing on the potential for increased oil prices due to military actions in the Middle East [3]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 能源电力行业领涨 A 股宽幅震荡 ——市场分析 周四（03 月 19 日）A 股市场低开低走、宽幅震荡整理，早盘股指低 开后震荡回落，盘中沪指在 4015 点附近获得支撑，午后股指维持震 荡，盘中石油、煤炭、燃气以及电力等行业表现较好；贵金属、有 色金属、能源金属以及农化制品等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈 现宽幅震荡整理的运行特征。创业板市场周四震荡回落，创业板成 分指数全天表现强于主板市场。 相关报告 《市场分析：通信半导体领涨 A 股小幅上行》 2026-03-18 《市场分析：金融光伏行业领涨 A 股小幅整 理》 2026-03-17 《市场分析：航运半导体领涨 A 股震荡整固》 2026-03-16 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2026 年 03 月 19 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 周四 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the disruption of global energy supply chains due to military actions by the US and Israel against Iran, leading to significant fluctuations in oil and gas prices [1] - Brent crude oil has increased by 6.34% to $109.446 per barrel, marking a 50% rise this month, while European natural gas futures have surged nearly 30%, with a cumulative increase of 106% this month [3] - The article notes a "see-saw" effect in asset performance, where rising oil prices correlate with declines in other asset classes, including global stock markets and precious metals [1] Group 2 - In the global stock market, major Asian indices have seen declines, with the Nikkei 225 down 3.38%, KOSPI down 2.73%, and the Hang Seng Index down 2.02% [4] - European indices are also experiencing downturns, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.78% and the FTSE 100 down 1.70% [4] - The S&P 500 futures are down 0.22%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.33%, reflecting a broader trend of approximately 1.5% decline in US stock indices [4] Group 3 - Precious metals have seen significant drops, with spot silver falling over 7% at one point, and current prices for gold at $4695.82 per ounce (down 2.55%) and silver at $71.17 per ounce (down 5.56%) [6] - The article reports that COMEX silver futures have dropped 7.81%, with a peak decline exceeding 10% [6] - Other metals are also affected, with LME aluminum down 2.61% and LME copper down 2.40%, alongside declines in domestic futures for gold, silver, and other metals [8] Group 4 - Bitcoin has seen a significant drop, falling below $70,000, with a 5.4% decrease in the last 24 hours, currently priced at $70,109.9 [8] - Ethereum has also declined, dropping to $2,166.42, reflecting a 6.94% decrease in the same timeframe [8]

Group 1: Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The crude oil主力 closed at 814.9, up 8.48% from the previous settlement of 751.2, with a trading volume of 197,074 hands and an increase of 43,359 hands. The crude oil指数 closed at 794.5, up 8.79% from 730.3, with a trading volume of 265,761 hands and an increase of 62,124 hands. The Oman crude oil price rose from 598 to 619 [2][3]. - PTA: The PTA主力 closed at 6,834, down 0.87% from 6,894, with a trading volume of 1,965,842 hands and an increase of 145,254 hands. The PTA指数 closed at 6,784, down 0.57% from 6,823, with a trading volume of 2,649,896 hands and an increase of 260,677 hands. The PTA cash - flow cost decreased from 6,976 to 6,834 [2][4]. - PX: The PX主力 closed at 9,914, down 1.08% from 10,022, with a trading volume of 767,082 hands and an increase of 4,190 hands. The PX指数 closed at 9,806, down 0.37% from 9,842, with a trading volume of 929,138 hands and an increase of 19,403 hands [2]. - Rubber: The rubber主力 closed at 16,090, down 2.51% from 16,505, with a trading volume of 303,515 hands and an increase of 4,638 hands. The rubber指数 closed at 16,081, down 2.44% from 16,484, with a trading volume of 402,387 hands and an increase of 18,440 hands [2]. - NR: The NR主力 closed at 12,925, down 2.08% from 13,200, with a trading volume of 80,077 hands and an increase of 9,757 hands. The NR指数 closed at 12,954, down 2.02% from 13,221, with a trading volume of 107,591 hands and an increase of 13,756 hands [2]. Group 2: Building Materials - Glass: The glass主力 closed at 1,065, down 1.30% from 1,079, with a trading volume of 896,639 hands and a decrease of 22,260 hands. The glass指数 closed at 1,100, down 1.17% from 1,113, with a trading volume of 1,083,811 hands and a decrease of 14,627 hands [8]. - Soda ash: The soda ash主力 closed at 1,217, down 0.73% from 1,226, with a trading volume of 804,935 hands and a decrease of 91,426 hands. The soda ash指数 closed at 1,240, down 0.56% from 1,247, with a trading volume of 1,099,782 hands and a decrease of 68,595 hands [8]. - Methanol: The methanol主力 closed at 3,182, up 8.64% from 2,929, with a trading volume of 3,079,462 hands and an increase of 397,346 hands. The methanol指数 closed at 3,099, up 8.17% from 2,865, with a trading volume of 3,715,602 hands and an increase of 527,571 hands [8]. - PP: The PP主力 closed at 9,158, up 4.90% from 8,730, with a trading volume of 1,188,717 hands and an increase of 242,930 hands. The PP指数 closed at 8,927, up 5.02% from 8,500, with a trading volume of 1,514,932 hands and an increase of 336,372 hands [8]. Group 3: Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The Shanghai copper主力 closed at 94,420, down 4.52% from 98,890, with a trading volume of 205,963 hands and an increase of 99,300 hands [13]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum主力 closed at 24,180, down 2.64% from 24,835, with a trading volume of 460,368 hands and an increase of 173,095 hands [13]. - Zinc: The Shanghai zinc主力 closed at 22,690, down 3.16% from 23,430, with a trading volume of 104,476 hands and an increase of 356 hands [13]. - Nickel: The Shanghai nickel主力 closed at 131,550, down 2.94% from 135,540, with a trading volume of 398,352 hands and an increase of 137,766 hands [13]. - Tin: The Shanghai tin主力 closed at 345,730, down 6.61% from 370,220, with a trading volume of 233,994 hands and an increase of 35,630 hands [13]. - Alumina: The alumina主力 closed at 3,027, down 1.24% from 3,065, with a trading volume of 980,718 hands and a decrease of 34,778 hands [13]. - Industrial silicon: The industrial silicon主力 closed at 8,285, down 1.78% from 8,435, with a trading volume of 172,736 hands and a decrease of 33,633 hands [13]. - Lithium carbonate: The lithium carbonate主力 closed at 142,600, down 6.37% from 152,300, with a trading volume of 288,571 hands and an increase of 82,682 hands [13]. Group 4: Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The live pig基差 increased from - 375 to - 235, and the pig - grain ratio decreased from 4.3976 to 4.3352 [17][18]. - Corn: The corn基差 decreased from - 49 to - 84 [17]. - Soybean meal: The soybean meal基差 decreased from 314 to 308 [17]. - Rapeseed meal: The rapeseed meal基差 increased from 217 to 237 [17]. - Soybean oil: The soybean oil基差 decreased from 310 to 274, and the soybean oil - palm oil spread decreased from - 1,152 to - 1,180 [17][18]. - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed oil基差 increased from 590 to 626, and the rapeseed oil - palm oil spread decreased from 88 to 58 [17][18]. - Palm oil: The palm oil基差 decreased from 168 to 74 [17]. - Eggs: The egg基差 increased from - 150 to - 117 [17]. Group 5: Other Commodities - Sugar: The sugar closed at 5,417, up 0.74% from 5,377, with a trading volume of 337,734 hands and a decrease of 31,600 hands [20]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15,150, down 0.98% from 15,300, with a trading volume of 347,047 hands and a decrease of 162,198 hands [20]. - Cotton yarn: The cotton yarn closed at 21,285, down 0.42% from 21,375, with a trading volume of 10,269 hands and a decrease of 274 hands [20]. - Apples: The apples closed at 10,611, up 4.76% from 10,129, with a trading volume of 157,849 hands and an increase of 81,362 hands [20]. - Jujubes: The jujubes closed at 8,825, down 0.62% from 8,880, with a trading volume of 97,800 hands and a decrease of 62,124 hands [20]. - Corn starch: The corn starch closed at 2,719, unchanged from the previous day, with a trading volume of 113,758 hands and an increase of 1,468 hands [20]. - European line container freight: The European line container freight closed at 1,915, down 1.45% from 1,943, with a trading volume of 24,435 hands and a decrease of 7,601 hands [20].

Market Overview - The escalation of the Middle East situation and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve have negatively impacted global market sentiment, leading to a decline in capital markets [1] - Major European stock markets opened significantly lower, with the UK FTSE 100 index down nearly 2%, and other indices like the Italian MIB, German DAX, and European STOXX50 also dropping over 2% [2][3] - U.S. stock index futures are also down, with the Nasdaq futures falling by 0.38%, S&P 500 futures down by 0.27%, and Dow futures decreasing by 0.22% [5] Commodity Market - Gold and silver prices experienced a sharp decline, with gold dropping over $117 to below $4,700 per ounce, marking a 2.43% decrease, while silver fell 7.14% to a new low since February 6, trading below $70 [1] - Platinum prices also saw a significant drop, exceeding 5%, with current prices at $1,913.32 per ounce [1] - In contrast, international oil prices surged, with ICE Brent crude rising over 5% to above $108 per barrel, and WTI crude increasing by over 1% to $96.53 per barrel [4] Stock Performance - Silver mining stocks in the U.S. fell sharply due to the drop in silver prices, with companies like First Majestic Silver down over 6%, and others like Coeur Mining and Silvercorp Metals declining more than 5% [5] - The Hong Kong stock market also faced pressure, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 2.02%, losing over 500 points, influenced by a significant decline in Tencent's stock post-earnings [5] Cryptocurrency Market - Major cryptocurrencies experienced a synchronized decline, with Bitcoin dropping over 5% and briefly falling below the $70,000 mark, leading to over 157,000 liquidations in the last 24 hours, totaling $576 million [6]

Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced a collective decline, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 3.38%, the South Korean Composite Index down by 2.73%, and both the Australian S&P 200 and New Zealand S&P 50 indices dropping nearly 2% [1] - Major European stock indices also opened lower, with Germany's DAX, the UK's FTSE 100, and France's CAC 40 all declining by over 1% [2] - In the A-share market, major indices saw significant drops, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling over 1% and briefly losing the 4000-point mark, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped over 2% [2] Sector Performance - Over 4900 stocks in the A-share market were in the red, with the non-ferrous metals, steel, and chemical sectors leading the declines. Notably, Sanfangxiang hit the daily limit down, and Anyang Steel fell nearly 9% [3] - Conversely, the gas and oil sectors saw gains, with Tianhao Energy and Kaitan Gas both hitting the daily limit up, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Petroleum rising over 5% [4][6] - The coal sector also performed well, with Shaanxi Black Cat hitting the daily limit up and China Shenhua Energy rising over 4% [9] Oil and Gas Market Dynamics - International oil prices surged due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, with Brent crude oil futures reaching over $110 per barrel. Analysts predict prices could rise to $120 per barrel in the coming days [7] - The geopolitical conflict involving Israel and Iran has led to attacks on key energy infrastructure, raising concerns about energy security and inflation in energy prices [9] Computing Power Sector - The computing power sector has become active, with stocks like Tongniu Information and Hongjing Technology reaching historical highs, driven by the increasing demand for AI services [11][13] - Major cloud service providers, including Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud, have raised prices for AI computing services, reflecting a broader trend in the industry [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fuel oil market structure is running strongly, with the main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closing down 1.47% at 4,629 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closing down 0.05% at 5,493 yuan/ton [1] - The number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz remains low, and the scope of attacks on energy facilities in the Middle East is expanding, leading to a significant tightening of oil supply including fuel oil in the Middle East [1] - For the high-sulfur fuel oil market, although the supply from the Middle East accounts for a relatively large proportion, the accumulated onshore and floating storage inventories can fill the gap in the short term. However, if the strait is blocked for too long, supply may not meet downstream demand [1] - For the low-sulfur fuel oil market, downstream refineries have reduced their loads due to insufficient raw materials, resulting in a decline in low-sulfur fuel oil production. In addition, the most prominent contradiction in refined oil products is middle distillates, which have some overlap with low-sulfur fuel oil blending components, indirectly tightening the supply of low-sulfur oil and increasing its valuation [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 1.47% at 4,629 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.05% at 5,493 yuan/ton [1] - The number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz remains low, and the scope of attacks on energy facilities in the Middle East is expanding, leading to a significant tightening of oil supply including fuel oil in the Middle East [1] - For the high-sulfur fuel oil market, although the supply from the Middle East accounts for a relatively large proportion, the accumulated onshore and floating storage inventories can fill the gap in the short term. However, if the strait is blocked for too long, supply may not meet downstream demand [1] - For the low-sulfur fuel oil market, downstream refineries have reduced their loads due to insufficient raw materials, resulting in a decline in low-sulfur fuel oil production. In addition, the most prominent contradiction in refined oil products is middle distillates, which have some overlap with low-sulfur fuel oil blending components, indirectly tightening the supply of low-sulfur oil and increasing its valuation [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term shock is strong, the market fluctuates greatly, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term shock is strong, the market fluctuates greatly, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]