委内瑞拉国家石油公司（PDVSA）消息人士称，一旦美国总统特朗普恢复其合作伙伴在互换协议下经 营和出口石油的授权，该公司准备根据类似于拜登时代的许可证的条款恢复其合资企业的工作。 ...

消息人士称，俄罗斯西部港口的石油装载量预计将在8月份降至177万桶/日，比7月份下降8%。 ...

| Million 国投期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月25日 | | 原油 | 女女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | なな☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价上行,SC09合约日内涨1.71%。三季度旺季以来石油市场延续了上半年的累库趋势，其中原油去库 0.6%、成品油累库1.7%，OPEC+增产路径下石油市场的供需盈余压力始终存在。美国政府有意放开雪弗龙在委内 瑞拉的经营许可,委内瑞拉原油出口面临20万桶/天左右的恢复。美日协议以利好落地后,市场对美国与欧盟、 中国的贸易谈判走向存在乐观预期,但我们认为与贸易战相关的利空风险在协议最终落地前始终存在,油价仍 以震荡承压为主；8月底、9月初伊核、俄乌协议面临欧美 ...

俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌琳娜：由于欧佩克+政策的变化，预计原油出口复苏将支持经济。 ...

订阅欧佩克动态 +订阅 订阅原油市场资讯 +订阅 金十数据7月25日讯，据四位代表透露，欧佩克+联合部长级监督委员会（JMMC）定于下周一举行会 议，但预计不会对当前的增产计划做出调整。消息人士指出，该联盟仍致力于重夺市场份额，而夏季的 强劲需求正有助于消化新增供应。知情人士称，本次会议可能不会改变现行政策，即8个成员国将在8月 起将总产量每日增加54.8万桶。另一位消息人士则表示，现在判断为时尚早。欧佩克+目前供应全球大 约一半的原油。为支撑市场，该组织今年开始转向增产，以收复市场份额。据三位消息人士本月早些时 候透露，8个欧佩克+产油国还计划于8月3日召开单独会议，预计将再同意自9月起日增产54.8万桶。这 意味着到9月欧佩克+将全面解除先前220万桶/日的减产。 代表称欧佩克+预计将维持增产计划不变 ...

印度6月原油进口同比上升8.0%，达2030万吨；汽油出口同比增长2.5%，达130万吨；柴油出口同比上 升15.5%，达220万吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - Last week's view was that the Northern Hemisphere's consumption peak season could support the market to some extent, but the supply pressure would gradually increase later, and the upside space was limited. This week, oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with a slightly stronger trend in the second half of the week due to tariff negotiations and geopolitical factors. The short - term fluctuations are mainly affected by tariff negotiations and geopolitical disturbances, while the long - term view remains bearish due to strong supply and the fading consumption peak season [8]. - The crude oil fundamentals show that the East market's month - spread is strong due to domestic oil storage, and diesel leads the refined oil cracking. The US gasoline demand has slumped during the peak season, indicating poor US consumption ability. The domestic anti - involution has little impact on crude oil, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations and the final tax rates [8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Views - Last week's view was that the consumption peak season could support the market, but the supply pressure would increase later. This week, oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with a slightly stronger trend in the second half due to tariff negotiations. The short - term is affected by tariff and geopolitical factors, and the long - term is bearish [8]. - Key points include the strong East market month - spread, weak US gasoline demand, little impact of anti - involution on crude oil, and attention to tariff negotiations [8]. 2. Weekly Highlights - **East - West Market Spread Differentiation**: Western market spreads (WTI and Brent) are falling, while the East market spreads are strong, related to China's imports [12]. - **China's Inventory Increase**: China's crude oil implied inventory from March to June 2025 reached a new high in recent years. The increase is due to price drops and strategic storage, which boosts the East market's month - spread [15]. - **Diesel Cracking Leading**: Diesel cracking leads the refined oil cracking market, with all regional 211 cracking (higher diesel proportion) stronger than 321 cracking [18]. - **Global Spot Cracking**: Diesel cracking is strong, while gasoline cracking is downward, corresponding to weak US gasoline consumption. The long - term supply reduction of Saudi and Russia supports diesel cracking [20]. - **Global Diesel Inventory**: Diesel inventories in the US and China are at multi - year lows, while the inventory in Northwest Europe is neutral, and Singapore's middle distillate inventory is declining [23]. - **US Gasoline Demand**: US gasoline demand slumped during the peak driving season, with inventory being neutral. Low demand at current prices deepens the expectation of poor US consumption in the second half of the year [26]. - **Domestic Anti - Involution**: It has little impact on crude oil supply. If it occurs in refineries, it may be bearish for crude oil but bullish for chemical by - products [29]. - **Tariff Negotiations**: The US has made progress in some tariff negotiations. Attention should be paid to the results and final tax rates, which may affect the US economy and Fed policies [30]. - **North American Hurricane Forecast**: This year's hurricane activity is expected to be 60% above average, which may disrupt supply. Currently, there is no hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, but there is a potential cyclone [32]. 3. Price, Spread, and Cracking - **Crude Oil Futures and Spot Prices**: Multiple charts show the trends of various crude oil futures and spot prices, including OPEC, WTI, Brent, etc. [35][52] - **Crude Oil Positions**: The positions of WTI and Brent futures and options are presented, including those of management funds, producers, etc. [37][40] - **Crude Oil Futures Structure and Month - Spread**: The futures structure and month - spread of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC are shown [43][46] - **Cross - Market Spreads**: Cross - market futures and spot spreads, such as Brent - WTI, are presented [49][52] - **Saudi OSP**: Saudi's official selling prices (OSP) for different grades of oil to different regions in August and July are provided, showing price changes [59] - **Refined Product Prices and Cracking**: The prices and cracking spreads of refined products, including gasoline, diesel, etc., in different regions are presented [64][72] 4. Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **Global Crude Oil Supply**: The supply of global, non - OPEC, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil is shown, with forecasts [85] - **Non - OPEC and OPEC Supply by Country**: The supply of non - OPEC countries (US, Russia, China, etc.) and OPEC countries (Saudi, Iraq, etc.) is presented [88][94] - **Global Rig Count**: The number of oil rigs in the US, Canada, and globally is shown [100] - **Refinery Shutdowns**: The shutdown volumes of CDU and FCC units globally and in different regions are presented [106][108] - **Global Crude Oil Demand**: The demand of OECD, non - OECD, and global crude oil is shown, with forecasts [110] - **Crude Oil Inventory**: The inventories of the US, OECD, and other regions, including commercial and strategic inventories, are presented [119] - **EIA Balance Sheet**: The EIA's supply, consumption, and balance data for 2025 and 2026 are provided [140] 5. EIA Weekly Report and Others - **EIA Weekly Report Main Data**: Data on crude oil production, commercial inventory, refinery utilization rate, etc., are presented [155] - **Supply and Demand Data**: Data on the production of various refined products, refinery demand, terminal demand, and inventory are provided [158][164][167] - **Inventory Data**: Data on crude oil and refined product inventories, including commercial and strategic inventories, are presented [173][176] - **Import and Export**: Not detailed in the remaining content

OPEC及其盟友正在执行一项旨在夺回市场份额的长期战略，尽管该组织正逐步退出减产协议，但一系列其无法直接控制的外部因素，正帮助油 价维持在异常坚挺的水平。 有媒体分析认为，这一反常现象的核心在于，地缘政治风险、强劲的需求信号以及非OPEC国家供应增长的瓶颈，正在有力地对冲OPEC+增加产 量带来的下行压力。据路透报道，市场对强劲需求的预期，已经超过了对OPEC+超出预期的8月份增产计划的担忧。 事实上，当OPEC+宣布将比预期更大幅度地提升供应时，油价不跌反涨。这不仅是因为部分成员国增产速度不及预期，还来自市场对美国贸易谈 判和地缘政治风险的持续忧虑。这些外部顺风，为OPEC实施其长期战略创造了有利条件。 对于OPEC为何改变策略，市场分析众说纷纭。有人认为这是为了再次打击美国页岩油行业，有人则称沙特在减产未能提振油价后已别无选择。 美油小幅上涨0.18%，现至66.15。 "这不会是一场短暂而剧烈的价格战，而是一场持久且温和的战争。" Blanch指出，这场战役的主要目标，尤其是对沙特而言，是美国页岩油。尽管美国页岩油行业近年来韧性增强，但其较高的生产成本使其在油价 下行时依然脆弱。 除争夺市场份额外，OP ...

2024年3月，为了缓解财政压力，尼日尔军政府与中国石油天然气集团有限公司（简称中石油）签订了一项资源换贷款协议。然而，协议执行近一年后，尼 日尔政府突然变脸，先是向中石油索要巨额税款，随后又要求追加贷款，遭到拒绝后，便开始了一系列针对中国企业的报复性行动。 尼日尔的能源危机：一场由贪婪和误判引发的灾难 尼日尔首都尼亚美在经历了长达三天的全面停电后，其经济正经历着前所未有的困境。工厂停工，炼油厂损失百万美元，这一切的根源都可以追溯到几个月 前尼日尔政府的一系列令人匪夷所思的举动——驱逐中国石油技术人员，搬起石头砸了自己的脚。 在收回部分资源后，尼日尔政府似乎错误地认为可以轻易摆脱对中国技术的依赖。他们没有意识到，中石油在尼日尔二十多年的投资（累计46-60亿美元） 建设了油田、炼油厂以及尼日尔-贝宁输油管道，将尼日尔从石油进口国转变为出口国。尼日尔驱逐中国技术人员后，其自身的石油产业却无法支撑，导致 能源系统瘫痪。 面对经济困境，尼日尔外交部长桑加雷上个月访问中国，试图修复两国关系，但为时已晚。尼日尔的鲁莽行为，不仅导致经济崩溃，还激怒了中国，这个曾 经重要的经济合作伙伴。 这场危机深刻地揭示了尼日尔政府的短 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/25 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/07/18 | 67.34 | 69.28 | 70.17 | 0.69 | 0.88 | -1.94 | 1.71 | 215.34 | 21.16 | 245.30 | 33.75 | | 2025/07/21 | 67.20 | 69.21 | 70.32 | 0.77 | 0.83 | -2.01 | 1.22 | 213.19 | 20.33 | 250.92 | 36.18 | | 2025/07/ ...