(原油) 昨日布伦特12合约涨0.09%，有消息称本周日0PEC+会议将决定在12月进一步增产，此前原油因俄罗 斯制裁升级及中美贸易谈判积极信号而引发的乐观情绪受到抑制。原油市场中期供需宽松压力不 变，且考虑到近期中美博弈风险的缓和限制了地缘犹动的影响上限，我们认为短期原油震荡偏强、 但反弹高度亦受限,策略方面再次关注原油空头逢高入场与虚值看涨期权相结合的组合。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属延续下跌。周末中美就稳妥解决多项重要经贸议题形成初步共识,短期风险偏好向好, 贯金属或将构筑高位震荡平台，耐心等待企稳后参与机会。本周重点关注美联储议息会议和APEC领 导人峰会。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (锌) 外盘低库存，伦锌继续偏强运行，锌锭现货出口窗口打开，国内贸易商和炼厂积极寻求出口，外盘 带动内盘跟涨。国内炼厂冬储在即,海外炼厂利润修复后存增产预期，11月内外矿TC齐转降，四季 度沪锌不做空头配置。短期消费偏弱，反弹动力来自出口和成本支撑，沪锌上方暂看2.3万元/吨压 力位。 【铜】 隔夜铜价收复盘中跌幅，在中美商务谈判乐观气氛引导下，内外铜价逼近纪录位置。同时，联储再 次兑现降息动 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - IEA indicates that due to production growth in the Americas, the global crude oil market will be in a surplus state this year, and oil prices may decline in the coming days and weeks due to sufficient supply [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to hold a symposium on the involution - style competition in the PTA and bottle - chip industries. PTA's capacity has increased by 3.27%, and the entire industry is in a loss - making situation. The continuous strength of PTA requires a more active supply side [2] - The market is in a complex situation. Crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks, and different energy and chemical products have different trends. For example, asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil may decline under the pressure of falling crude oil prices, while low - sulfur fuel oil may follow the upward trend of crude oil [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Market Situation - The crude oil market is in a state of supply surplus. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders is approaching, and the market is observing the actual reduction in Russian oil production due to US sanctions. The supply of crude oil in tankers has reached a record high since 2016, mainly due to the increasing production in the Americas [1][6] - The PTA and bottle - chip industries are facing involution - style competition. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to hold a symposium to promote the stable operation of the industry. PTA's capacity has increased, and the processing fee has dropped, with the entire industry in a loss - making state. The operation of the benzene - ethylene industry is also not optimistic [2] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks have increased, and the actual reduction in supply needs to be observed. Currently, the supply side is in a stage where the expected reduction in Russian oil is difficult to verify. The short - term price support is relatively stable, but it is still difficult to reverse the current surplus pattern. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [6] Asphalt - As crude oil prices fall, asphalt may be under pressure to decline. The increase in OPEC+ production, the reduction of Saudi Arabia's export premium to Asia, and the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict, combined with the market's assessment of the situation after the sharp rise in oil prices, may lead to a decline in asphalt futures prices. The supply tension has been relieved, and the high - premium driving force has weakened [7] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - As crude oil prices fall, fuel oil may be under pressure to decline. Although the Palestine - Israel conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate. The demand for fuel oil is still weak, and the trend needs to pay attention to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [7] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as new sanctions on Russia by Europe and the United States, and the supply and demand situation is complex. It is expected to follow the volatility of crude oil [9] PX - Driven by the rapid rise of PTA, the negotiation and price of PX have increased. The cost - side guidance is limited, and the short - term supply and demand are affected by the PTA industry. It is expected that the price will be volatile and strong in the short term [11] PTA - The anti - involution policy has affected the PTA industry. The reduction in production is a variable, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation. The price has been boosted by the industry's anti - involution sentiment, but the basis is still weak. It is expected that the price will remain warm in the short term [12][13] Short - Fiber - Pay attention to the fermentation of the upstream sentiment. The cost side is supported by the rise of PTA. The short - fiber itself has no inventory pressure. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate warmly with the raw materials [21][22] Bottle - Chip - The anti - involution policy has affected the polyester industry. The price of polyester bottle - chips has been driven up by the rise of upstream raw materials. The market transaction is light, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the raw materials [23] Pure Benzene - The driving force for the rise is insufficient, and it is expected to operate weakly and volatile. The price of naphtha is strong, and the demand for pure benzene is affected by factors such as the maintenance and production reduction of benzene - ethylene devices [14][15] Benzene - Ethylene - It is expected to operate weakly and volatile. Although it has rebounded recently, the rebound strength is weak, affected by factors such as new device production and weak downstream follow - up. The profit is at a low level, and the idea of shorting on the rebound remains unchanged [16][17] Ethylene Glycol - Driven by the sentiment of related varieties, but the fundamental pressure is large and the elasticity is limited. The supply is gradually recovering to a high level, and the port inventory is difficult to reduce in the short term. It is expected to maintain a low - level range arrangement [18][19] Methanol - With the rebound of olefins, methanol is expected to fluctuate widely. The port inventory is still at a relatively high level, but considering the possible impact of Iran in winter, there is still value in going long at a low level [25][26] Urea - The market sentiment has ebbed, and it is expected to be under continuous pressure. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [26][27] Plastic - As oil prices rebound, but the fundamental support is limited, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The supply - side support is limited, and the profit support is also limited [29] PP - With a slight increase in maintenance, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The fundamental support is still limited, and attention should be paid to the change and sustainability of maintenance [30] PL - The price difference with PP continues to fluctuate in the range of 500 - 550, and it is expected to fluctuate. The market trading atmosphere has improved, and the volatility has increased [31] PVC - With low valuation and weak expectations, it is expected to operate volatile. The macro - level Sino - US tariff issue and the micro - level supply - demand situation affect the price. The idea of shorting on the rebound remains unchanged [32] Caustic Soda - The spot price is stable, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. The long - term supply and demand situation is complex, and it is expected to enter a wide - range fluctuation, with the idea of shorting on the rebound [32][33] 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on the inter - period spreads, basis, and inter - variety spreads of various energy and chemical products, which can help investors understand the market trends and price relationships of different varieties [34][35][37] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific data is not fully presented, it is expected to provide more detailed information on the basis and spreads of chemical products such as methanol, urea, and benzene - ethylene, which is helpful for in - depth analysis of the market [38][51][63] 4. Index Situation - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of commodities have different trends. The energy index has a certain increase on October 27, 2025, but shows different trends in different time periods [281][282]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has announced sanctions against two major Russian energy companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, aiming to cut off funding sources for Russia amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict [1][3]. Group 1: Sanctions and Market Impact - The sanctions include freezing all assets of the companies in the U.S. and prohibiting American businesses from engaging in any commercial dealings with them [1]. - Following the announcement, international markets experienced volatility, with stock prices and oil prices rising sharply [1]. - The sanctions are intended to target Russia's energy exports, which have been a crucial source of revenue for the country since the onset of the Ukraine conflict [1]. Group 2: Political and Economic Strategy - The sanctions serve a dual purpose for Trump: showcasing a strong diplomatic stance while appealing to hawkish voters ahead of a potential 2028 presidential run [1][4]. - Maintaining low domestic oil prices is critical for the Trump administration, as it helps alleviate economic pressure on American households and boosts public approval [4]. - The administration aims to strike a balance between punishing Russia and keeping U.S. oil prices stable to avoid backlash from American consumers [6]. Group 3: Challenges and Limitations - A significant challenge to the effectiveness of the sanctions lies in Russia's ability to continue exporting oil through a "shadow fleet," which involves older ships that evade Western sanctions [5]. - Major buyers of Russian oil, particularly India and China, could undermine the sanctions' impact if they continue to purchase Russian oil at discounted rates [5]. - Analysts predict that while oil prices may see a slight increase in the short term, the long-term effects of the sanctions on U.S. domestic prices remain uncertain [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report Core Viewpoints - The central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading operations, and the prices of precious metals, crude oil, and stock index futures show different trends affected by various factors such as geopolitics, economic data, and policies [1] - Precious metals have experienced a continuous decline after a rapid rise due to the weakening of driving factors, while the long - term trend of gold as a safe - haven asset remains [2] - Crude oil prices are under a downward trend despite geopolitical tensions, and the situation is still unclear [3] - Stock index futures are in a direction - selection stage, and the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [4] Summary by Relevant Parts 1.当日主要新闻关注 International News - Mexican President Sinbaum said that US President Trump agreed to extend the deadline for the agreement on trade, security, and immigration issues between the two countries, and Trump will not impose additional tariffs [6] Domestic News - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi talked with US Secretary of State Rubio, hoping that both sides would work together to prepare for high - level interactions and create conditions for bilateral relations. The Chinese Foreign Ministry also responded to multiple hot issues such as a possible meeting between the two heads of state [7] Industry News - In September, the profits of China's industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 21.6% year - on - year, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared with August, with the profits of high - tech and equipment manufacturing industries growing rapidly [8] 2.外盘每日收益情况 - The US S&P 500 index decreased by 0.79%, the German DAX index decreased by 0.13%, the UK FTSE 100 index decreased by 0.70%, and the FTSE A50 futures bond decreased by 1.33% from October 24th to October 27th. The US dollar index decreased by 0.15%, and the 10 - year US Treasury bond futures decreased by 0.20%. ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.58%, London gold decreased by 0.25%, and London silver decreased by 0.44%. LME aluminum decreased by 0.30%, LME copper increased by 1.20%, LME zinc decreased by 0.10%, and LME nickel decreased by 0.07%. ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 1.77%, ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 0.25%, CBOT soybeans decreased by 0.07%, CBOT soybean meal increased by 0.65%, CBOT soybean oil decreased by 1.12%, and CBOT wheat remained unchanged [10] 3.主要品种早盘评论 Financial - Stock index futures continued to rise after the Sino - US tariff negotiation released positive news. After the high - level shock in September, they are in a direction - selection stage. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [4][11] - Treasury bond futures rose slightly. The central bank carried out large - scale MLF operations, but the short - term Shibor increased. With the easing of risk - aversion sentiment and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market liquidity is expected to remain reasonable and abundant, which supports the price of treasury bond futures [12][13] Energy and Chemical - SC crude oil futures decreased by 0.75% at night. The US and the EU imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, but the downward trend of crude oil prices is difficult to change [3][14] - Methanol futures decreased by 0.53% at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased slightly. The market is volatile due to various uncertainties [15] - Rubber supply may face pressure as the tapping season progresses, and the demand support is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be strong due to the expected smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [16] - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. The spot prices were stable. With the easing of the external environment and the rebound of crude oil prices, and the high demand from downstream industries, the market may fluctuate and rebound in the short term [17] - Glass futures were in a low - level consolidation, and soda ash futures rebounded slightly. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the market is cautious. Attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [18] Metal - Precious metals continued to decline. Geopolitical risks have cooled down, and the driving factors have weakened. However, the long - term trend of gold as a safe - haven asset remains [2][19] - Copper prices decreased slightly at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the smelting profit is at the break - even point, but the smelting output continues to grow. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap and support copper prices in the long term [20] - Zinc prices increased slightly at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The domestic zinc price may be weaker than the foreign one, and the market may fluctuate within a range [21] Black - Coking coal and coke futures fluctuated narrowly at night. The output of five major steel products increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The high iron - water output provides support for coking coal and coke, but the possible reduction of blast - furnace production due to shrinking profits is a risk. The short - term trend is expected to be a high - level shock [22] Agricultural Products - Protein meal futures fluctuated strongly at night. The US soybean export inspection volume was higher than expected, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress was good. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [23] - Oil futures were weak at night. The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase in October, and the supply - side expectation is loose, which suppresses the short - term market [24] - International sugar prices are in a downward trend due to the increase in Brazilian sugar supply. The domestic sugar price may be supported by the cost of the new crushing season, and there is a possibility of an upward trend in the short term [25] - Cotton futures continued to be strong in a volatile manner. The US cotton market is in a short - term shock due to the government shutdown. The domestic new cotton purchase is in the peak season, and the price supports the market in the short term [26] Shipping Index - The container shipping index for European routes (EC) declined. The SCFIS European route index rebounded for the second consecutive period. The market is still gambling on the year - end peak season, and the shipping companies are relatively positive in price - holding at the end of the year, but the market operation is not smooth [27][28]

Group 1: Oil and Gas Industry - The conflict between the US and Venezuela is intensifying, leading to significant geopolitical impacts on oil prices [1] - The US Treasury announced sanctions on Russia's largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, on October 22 [1] - The EU has banned Russian liquefied natural gas from entering the European market and lowered the price cap for Russian crude oil to $47.6 per barrel [1] - As a result of these factors, WTI oil prices fell to $61.5 per barrel, a decrease of 6.88%, while Brent oil prices dropped to $65.94 per barrel, down 7.59% [1] Group 2: Refrigerant Industry - Prices for refrigerants R32 and R134a have increased due to supply constraints from quota policies, with companies prioritizing long-term customer orders [2] - As of October 26, the price of R134a rose by 1,000 yuan per ton to 5.4 million yuan per ton, while R32 increased by 500 yuan per ton to 6.3 million yuan per ton [2] - Prices for R142b and R22 remained stable at 27,000 yuan per ton and 16,000 yuan per ton, respectively [2] Group 3: Explosives and Pesticides Industry - The civil explosives industry is experiencing accelerated consolidation as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its conclusion [3] - Major projects such as the Yarlung Tsangpo project and the new shipping channel of the Three Gorges are expected to boost domestic demand [3] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is anticipated to help civil explosive companies expand overseas demand [3] - In the pesticide sector, safety production accidents among key enterprises may disrupt supply [3]

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/28 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/21 | 57.24 | 61.32 | 63.34 | - | 0.29 | -4.08 | -0.05 | 182.53 | 15.34 | 220.58 | 31.32 | | 2025/10/22 | 58.50 | 62.59 | 63.86 | - | 0.36 | -4.09 | 0.00 | 186.50 | 15.74 | 224.96 | 31.89 | | 2025/10/23 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic prices of gasoline and diesel in China are being reduced, marking the ninth price cut of the year, which is expected to impact both consumers and the logistics industry significantly [1] Price Adjustment Details - Effective from October 27, 2023, at 24:00, the price of gasoline is reduced by 265 yuan per ton, while diesel is reduced by 255 yuan per ton [1] - This translates to a decrease of 0.21 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 0.22 yuan per liter for 95 gasoline, and 0.22 yuan per liter for diesel [1] Impact on Consumers - For private car owners, filling a 50L tank will cost approximately 10.5 yuan less after the price adjustment [1] Impact on Logistics Industry - For heavy-duty trucks with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers, running 10,000 kilometers a month will see a reduction in fuel costs by around 390 yuan per vehicle before the next price adjustment window opens on November 10, 2023 [1]

| 纯苯-苯乙烯日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年10月28日 | | | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | | 上游价格及价差 | | | | | | 品种 10月27日 | 10月24日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 布伦特原油(12月) 65.62 | 65.94 | -0.32 | -0.5% | 美元/桶 | | WTI原油(12月) 61.31 | 61.50 | -0.19 | -0.3% | | | CFR日本石脑油 578 581 | | -3 | -0.5% | | | 765 CFR东北亚乙烯 765 | | 0 | 0.0% | | | CFR中国纳本 687 691 | | -4 | -0.6% | 美元/吨 | | 109 110 纯本-石脑油 | | -1 | -0.9% | | | 乙烯-石脑油 187 184 | | 3 | 1.6% | | | 5450 纯苯(中石化华东挂牌价) | 5450 | 0 | 0.0% | | | 纯苯华东现货 5 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the week ending October 26, the global on - land crude oil inventory decreased slightly, the floating storage inventory increased significantly, and the full - scope (including in - transit) inventory declined from a high level. Year - on - year, the inventory pressure remained high. The decrease in on - land inventory was observed in China, Russia, India, and the Middle East [2] 3. Summary by Related Content - **Global Crude Oil Inventory Trends** - The global on - land crude oil inventory decreased slightly, the floating storage inventory increased significantly, and the full - scope (including in - transit) inventory declined from a high level [2] - **Regional Inventory Changes** - The decrease in on - land inventory was reflected in China, Russia, India, and the Middle East [2]

企查查APP显示，近日，朝阳中能石化有限责任公司成立，注册资本4000万元，经营范围包含：汽车销 售；汽车零配件零售；新能源汽车换电设施销售；新能源汽车整车销售等。企查查股权穿透显示，该公 司由中国石化(600028)旗下中国石化销售股份有限公司全资持股。 ...