Report Date - The report is dated November 12, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - Overall, finished steel products are supported by raw material costs but constrained by inventory on the upside, expected to trade in a range. The operating range for rebar may be between 2900-3200, and for hot-rolled coil between 3100-3400. Attention should be paid to the de-stocking speed of steel and downstream consumption [3] - Iron ore prices are expected to continue their weak trend in the short term due to macroeconomic and fundamental pressures [22] - Coal and coke futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure in the short term, but the downside for coking coal spot prices may be limited in the medium to long term [32] - Ferroalloys are expected to trade in a range, supported by cost but facing high inventory and weak demand [47] - Soda ash prices are restricted by high inventory but supported by cost, with limited upside and downside space [57] - Glass prices are under pressure due to weak sales and high inventory, but there is cost support and policy expectations in the long term [82] Steel Section Futures Prices - On November 12, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3038, 3096, and 3138 respectively; the closing prices of hot-rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3255, 3267, and 3288 respectively [4] Spot Prices - On November 12, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3231 yuan/ton; the aggregated hot-rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton [10][12] Price Ratios and Spreads - On November 12, 2025, the 01 roll-to-rebar spread was 217 yuan/ton; the 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4; the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2 [16][19] Iron Ore Section Futures Prices - On November 12, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 774, 747.5, and 724.5 respectively [23] Spot Prices - On November 12, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 775 yuan/ton; the price of Rizhao Karara fines was 876 yuan/ton; the price of Rizhao Super Special was 670 yuan/ton [23] Fundamental Data - As of November 7, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 234.22 million tons; the 45-port inventory was 14898.83 million tons [26] Coal and Coke Section Futures Prices - On November 11, 2025, the coking coal 09-01 spread was 128; the coke 09-01 spread was 228.5 [35] Spot Prices - On November 11, 2025, the ex-factory price of Anze low-sulfur coking coal was 1660 yuan/ton; the ex-factory price of Linfen quasi-first-grade wet coke was 1430 yuan/ton [36] Profit and Ratios - On November 11, 2025, the on-site coking profit was -121 yuan/ton; the main ore-to-coke ratio was 0.453 [35] Ferroalloy Section Silicon Iron - On November 11, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 42; the silicon iron 01-05 spread was -38 [47] Silicon Manganese - On November 11, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 206; the silicon manganese 01-05 spread was -58 [49] Soda Ash Section Futures Prices - On November 12, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1287, 1354, and 1214 respectively [58] Spot Prices - On November 12, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton; the market price of light soda ash in North China was 1250 yuan/ton [61] Glass Section Futures Prices - On November 12, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1169, 1240, and 1049 respectively [83] Spot Sales - From November 1 to 7, 2025, the sales rate in Shahe area ranged from 100% to 166% [84]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Black Metal Daily Report, dated November 12, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03134259 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0021009 [1] Group 2: Market Information - Futures - SF Main Contract: Closing price 5552, daily change -10, weekly change -8, trading volume 227389 (daily change 47369), open interest 107008 (daily change 11367) [2] - SM Main Contract: Closing price 5762, daily change -2, weekly change -14, trading volume 131411 (daily change -77160), open interest 353974 (daily change -2167) [2] Group 3: Market Information - Spot Silicon Iron - 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia: Spot price 5280, daily change -50, weekly change -20 [2] - 72%FeSi in Ningxia: Spot price 5250, daily change -30, weekly change 0 [2] - 72%FeSi in Qinghai: Spot price 5300, daily change 0, weekly change 30 [2] - 72%FeSi in Jiangsu: Spot price 5500, daily change 0, weekly change -50 [2] - 72%FeSi in Tianjin: Spot price 5500, daily change -50, weekly change 50 [2] Silicon Manganese - Silicon Manganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia: Spot price 5600, daily change -20, weekly change -20 [2] - Silicon Manganese 6517 in Ningxia: Spot price 5560, daily change 0, weekly change 0 [2] - Silicon Manganese 6517 in Guangxi: Spot price 5600, daily change -20, weekly change 0 [2] - Silicon Manganese 6517 in Jiangsu: Spot price 5720, daily change 0, weekly change 20 [2] - Silicon Manganese 6517 in Tianjin: Spot price 5700, daily change 0, weekly change 20 [2] Group 4: Market Information - Basis/Spread Silicon Iron - Inner Mongolia - Main Contract: Basis -272, daily change -40, weekly change -12 [2] - Ningxia - Main Contract: Basis -302, daily change -20, weekly change 8 [2] - Qinghai - Main Contract: Basis -252, daily change 10, weekly change 38 [2] - Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia: Spread 220, daily change 50, weekly change -30 [2] - SF - SM Spread: -210, daily change -8, weekly change 6 [2] Manganese Silicon - Inner Mongolia - Main Contract: Basis -162, daily change -18, weekly change -6 [2] - Ningxia - Main Contract: Basis -202, daily change 2, weekly change 14 [2] - Guangxi - Main Contract: Basis -162, daily change -18, weekly change 14 [2] - Guangxi - Inner Mongolia: Spread 0, daily change 0, weekly change 20 [2] Group 5: Market Information - Raw Materials Manganese Ore (Tianjin) - Australian Lump: Price 39.3, daily change 0.1, weekly change 0.5 [2] - South African Semi - Carbonate: Price 34.3, daily change 0, weekly change 0.1 [2] - Gabon Lump: Price 40.2, daily change 0, weekly change 0.4 [2] Lanthanum Charcoal Small Pieces - In Shaanxi: Price 820, daily change 0, weekly change 0 [2] - In Ningxia: Price 920, daily change 0, weekly change 110 [2] - In Inner Mongolia: Price 810, daily change 0, weekly change 10 [2] Group 6: Market Judgment - Trading Strategy - On November 12, the ferroalloy futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The silicon iron main contract closed at 5490, up 0.04%, with an increase of 4366 in open interest; the manganese silicon main contract closed at 5762, down 0.03%, with a decrease of 2167 in open interest [5] - Silicon Iron: Spot prices on the 12th were stable with a slight decline, with prices in some regions dropping by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. Supply remained high. Demand was expected to decline as the seasonal off - season approached, with steel production and apparent demand decreasing, and steel profits being poor. The tender price of the leading steel mill in Hebei in November decreased slightly compared to the previous month. The power price in the production area was stable with a slight increase. Overall, the supply - demand balance weakened marginally, but the cost side provided support. Previous short positions could be reduced on dips [5] - Manganese Silicon: Manganese ore spot prices on the 12th were stable with a slight increase, with the spot price of Australian lump in Tianjin rising by 0.1 yuan/ton degree. Manganese silicon spot prices were stable with a slight decline, with prices in some regions dropping by 20 yuan/ton. Some enterprises had minor maintenance, but overall production remained high. Steel demand was weak, steel mill profits were poor, leading to a downward trend in hot metal production. There was still downward pressure on future demand for manganese silicon. The overseas quotation of manganese ore was stable with a slight increase, and the power price also increased. The supply - demand balance of manganese silicon weakened marginally, the cost provided support, and the futures valuation was at a relatively low level. Previous short positions could be reduced [5] - Unilateral: The supply - demand balance weakens marginally, but the cost side provides support. Previous short positions can be reduced on dips; Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6] Group 7: Important Information - A large steel mill in Hebei's inquiry price for 75B silicon iron in November was 5600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton compared to October, with a quantity of 2716 tons, a decrease of 240 tons compared to October [7] - Since November 12, 2025, Shagang has lowered the scrap steel price by 30 yuan/ton, with the specific scrap steel price based on the 2025 - F17 price [8] Group 8: Cost and Profit Silicon Iron - Inner Mongolia: Production cost 5556 yuan/ton, profit - 336 yuan/ton [17] - Ningxia: Production cost 5659 yuan/ton, profit - 509 yuan/ton [17] - Shaanxi: Production cost 5663 yuan/ton, profit - 543 yuan/ton [17] - Qinghai: Production cost 5717 yuan/ton, profit - 547 yuan/ton [17] - Gansu: Production cost 5765 yuan/ton, profit - 565 yuan/ton [17] Silicon Manganese - Inner Mongolia: Production cost 5805 yuan/ton, profit - 185 yuan/ton [20] - Ningxia: Production cost 5834 yuan/ton, profit - 274 yuan/ton [20] - Guangxi: Production cost 6339 yuan/ton, profit - 739 yuan/ton [20] - Guizhou: Production cost 6159 yuan/ton, profit - 579 yuan/ton [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to experience a high - level decline due to the realization of inventory accumulation pressure [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance, while silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to the price - supporting sentiment from the ore end [2][11]. - Coke is expected to follow the market downward [2][15]. - Coking coal is expected to see a valuation decline due to the repeated supply expectations [2][16]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 763.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.26%. The open interest decreased by 11,250 hands. Spot prices remained stable. The basis and some spreads changed slightly [4]. - **News**: Deputy Premier Liu Guozhong will attend the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou Iron Ore Project in Guinea [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,025 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.33%), and HC2601 was 3,242 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.03%). Open interest and trading volume changed. Spot prices in different regions had minor fluctuations. Basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **News**: In October 2025, China's imported steel decreased in quantity and price. Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data in November and October showed various trends. The government supported commercial real estate REITs issuance [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon increased slightly, and the price of manganese ore rose. Basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [11]. - **News**: There were price quotes and tender information for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in November. From January to October 2025, the national silicomanganese production was 903.96 million tons, with Inner Mongolia accounting for 48.5%, and there were new capacity plans [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) decreased by 4.1% and 3.4% respectively. Spot prices were mostly stable, with some changes in basis and spreads [16]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission held an energy supply guarantee meeting for the heating season [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 for both, indicating a bearish trend [17]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different log contracts decreased slightly. Trading volume and open interest showed different trends. Spot prices of various log types were mostly stable [19]. - **News**: China decided to lift the suspension of importing US logs from November 10, 2025 [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21].

2025 年 11 月 12 日 | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5250 | +30.0 | 元/吨 | | 现 货 | 硅锰:FeMn65Si17:内蒙 | | 5620 | - | 元/吨 | | | 锰矿:Mn44块 | | 40.2 | +0.2 | 元/吨度 | | | 兰炭:小料:神木 | | 820 | - | 元/吨 | | | 期现价差 | 硅铁 （现货-01期货） | -238 | +130 | 元/吨 | | | | 锰硅 （现货-01期货） | -144 | +56 | 元/吨 | | 价 差 | 近远月价差 | 硅铁2601-2605 | -38 | 2 8 | 元/吨 | | | | 锰硅2601-2605 | -58 | 0 | 元/吨 | | | 跨品种价差 | 锰硅2601-硅铁2601 | 276 | 4 4 | 元/吨 | | | | 锰硅2605-硅铁2605 | 296 | 7 2 | 元/吨 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. With the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and the steel consumption end may gradually recover. In the short term, due to the impact of the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly declined, and the demand is still weak, so the price will continue the weak shock trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to turn around [2]. - From the fundamental perspective of iron ore, affected by environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profits, the trend of declining hot - metal production continues, the demand side of iron ore continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains. In the short term, the ore price will run weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. - The black - sector pricing has recently returned to the fundamentals. The market is "attempting" a "negative feedback" transaction in the black sector, but this is considered a phased shock and emotional release with limited downside space. It is more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do long rather than short. The height after the callback depends on whether stimulus policies are introduced and their intensity [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand sides are weak, and the cost support is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to whether the upstream spot and futures prices can remain firm [14][16]. - For glass, the market lacks strong support from the supply - demand fundamentals, and the cost support for prices continues to weaken. It is expected that the price will continue to run weakly in the short term. For soda ash, the market has both long and short factors, and the price may continue the shock trend [19][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3025 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (- 0.62%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 6380 tons to 100,612 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 32 lots to 1.923701 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3242 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.30%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 97,028 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 19,179 lots to 1.326892 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coil was 3270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both declined, and inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. Hot - rolled coil demand declined significantly, with inventory accumulating against the season. Steel demand has entered the off - season, and the hot - rolled coil inventory risk remains. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 763.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.26% (- 2.00), and the positions decreased by 11,250 lots to 530,400 lots. The weighted positions were 963,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.35% [4]. Strategy Views - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to decline. On the demand side, the daily average hot - metal production decreased, affected by environmental protection restrictions in Hebei and the decline in steel mill profits. The port inventory accumulation increased, and the steel mill inventory increased. Fundamentally, the demand for iron ore continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains. In the short term, the ore price will run weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.96% at 5764 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 126 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed down 1.79% at 5588 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and a discount of 12 yuan/ton to the futures price [8]. Strategy Views - In November, the black - sector pricing has returned to the fundamentals. The market is "attempting" a "negative feedback" transaction in the black sector, but this is considered a phased shock and emotional release with limited downside space. For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are still not ideal, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore end. For ferrosilicon, its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and its operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9180 yuan/ton, down 1.18% (- 110). The weighted positions decreased by 13,304 lots to 426,734 lots. The spot price of 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 170 yuan/ton. The spot price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 230 yuan/ton [12]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 51,930 yuan/ton, down 3.33% (- 1790). The weighted positions increased by 11,791 lots to 234,183 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.2 yuan/kg, all unchanged, with a basis of 270 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand sides are weak, and the cost support is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to whether the upstream spot and futures prices can remain firm [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1053 yuan/ton, down 1.50% (- 16). The North China large - plate price was 1110 yuan, unchanged, and the Central China price was 1140 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million cases, down 2.654 million cases (- 4.03%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 55,903 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 66,853 short positions [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1215 yuan/ton, down 0.90% (- 11). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1176 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7142 million tons, up 12,200 tons. The heavy - soda inventory was 899,600 tons, up 13,200 tons, and the light - soda inventory was 814,600 tons, down 1000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 31,273 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 11,482 short positions [20]. Strategy Views - For glass, the market lacks strong support from the supply - demand fundamentals, and the cost support for prices continues to weaken. It is expected that the price will continue to run weakly in the short term. For soda ash, the market has both long and short factors, and the price may continue the shock trend [19][21].

Report Information - Report Date: 2025/11/12 [1] - Report Type: Ferroalloy Morning Report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the ferroalloy market, including price, supply, demand, inventory, cost, and profit data for silicon iron and silicon manganese from 2021 to 2025 [2][4][5][6][7] Key Points by Category Price - **Silicon Iron**: Prices vary by region and grade, with daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron natural block is 5180 yuan, up 30 yuan daily and weekly [2] - **Silicon Manganese**: Similar to silicon iron, prices vary by region and grade, with different daily and weekly changes. For instance, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese is 5620 yuan, unchanged daily and weekly [2] Supply - **Silicon Iron**: Production data includes monthly and weekly output, capacity utilization, and开工率 of 136 silicon iron production enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 [4] - **Silicon Manganese**: Production data such as weekly output, procurement volume, and开工率 of silicon manganese in China are presented from 2021 - 2025 [6] Demand - **Silicon Iron**: Demand - related data includes exports, consumption in industries like steel and magnesium production, and procurement by enterprises such as Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2021 - 2025 [4] - **Silicon Manganese**: Demand data includes domestic demand in China (steel - related) and export volume from 2021 - 2025 [7] Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: Inventory data covers 60 sample enterprises in China, including total inventory, regional inventory, and warehouse receipts + effective forecasts from 2021 - 2025 [5] - **Silicon Manganese**: Inventory data includes warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 [7] Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: Cost factors include electricity prices, raw material prices (such as semi - coke), and profit data includes production profit, export profit, and profit after conversion to the main contract [5] - **Silicon Manganese**: Cost factors involve raw material prices (such as manganese ore) and profit data includes regional profit and profit after conversion to the main contract from 2021 - 2025 [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The training event on "Options+" aims to enhance risk management tools in the ferroalloy industry, facilitating the transformation and upgrading of enterprises in Ningxia, China's second-largest ferroalloy production area [1][2]. Group 1: Training Event Overview - The "Options+" training was held in Yinchuan, Ningxia, with the support of various financial and regulatory bodies, focusing on promoting options strategies and innovative trading models for nearly 60 local enterprises [1]. - The training covered fundamental theories, risk management practices, and case studies, emphasizing both relevance and foresight for the ferroalloy sector [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Development and Challenges - Despite achievements, there is a need to improve the understanding, participation scale, and diversity of trading models among Ningxia's enterprises in the futures market, which is still considered to be in a relatively late stage of development [2]. - The training is seen as a crucial step in empowering enterprises to enhance their risk management capabilities and core competitiveness [2]. Group 3: Government and Regulatory Support - The Ningxia Financial Office plans to continue collaborating with regulatory bodies to strengthen policy guidance and optimize service offerings, aiming to create a favorable market environment for enterprises to better understand and utilize futures and derivatives [2][3]. - The event aligns with national strategies to promote high-quality development in the futures market, highlighting the essential role of futures and derivatives in risk management and supply chain stability [3]. Group 4: Practical Applications and Future Prospects - Companies like Maoye Metallurgy have begun using over-the-counter options for risk management and view the introduction of on-exchange options as an additional tool for risk transfer [4]. - The successful implementation of the "Options+" model is expected to build a more robust risk management framework for local enterprises, stimulate innovative trading models, and contribute to the sustainable development of the regional economy [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★ [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★★ [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★ [1] - **Coke**: ★★★ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★★ [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★★ [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall demand for steel is weak, with the cost center shifting down due to the decline of furnace materials, and the steel plate is under pressure, mainly in a weak shock in the short term [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile, with the supply side showing some fluctuations and the demand side weakening due to reduced steel demand [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets are facing pressure from reduced downstream demand and abundant carbon element supply, with prices expected to be relatively strong in a shock [4][6]. - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are affected by the decline in iron - water production, with different supply - demand situations and price trends [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - In the off - season, the apparent demand and production of thread steel and hot - rolled coil both decline, and the inventory situation varies. Iron - water production falls from a high level, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needs to be alleviated. The overall domestic demand is weak, and exports have declined from a high level. The demand expectation is pessimistic, and the plate is under pressure [2]. Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments have declined month - on - month, and domestic arrivals have dropped significantly but are still at a high level, with port inventories continuing to increase. On the demand side, steel demand in the off - season has decreased, and iron - water production has continued to decrease. The market is trading the reality of a marginally looser iron ore supply, and the trend is expected to be volatile [3]. Coke - The price has declined during the day. The downstream acceptance of the fourth - round price adjustment is poor. Coking profits are average, and daily production has decreased slightly. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, with downstream demand for raw materials decreasing [4]. Coking Coal - The price has declined during the day. Mongolian coal imports have increased, and the production of coking coal mines has decreased slightly. The total inventory has increased slightly, and the market is affected by factors such as safety inspections in coal - producing areas and reduced downstream demand [6]. Silicon Manganese - The price is weakly volatile. The demand has decreased due to the decline in iron - water production. The weekly production has decreased slightly but is still at a high level, and the inventory is slowly increasing. The price of manganese ore has shown some fluctuations [7]. Silicon Iron - The price is weakly volatile. The demand from iron - water production has decreased, but the export demand has increased marginally, and the secondary demand has also increased. The supply is at a high level, and the inventory has decreased. Cost factors may lead to a price rebound [8].

Group 1: Market Information - The closing price of the SF main contract was 5562, down 130 from the previous day and up 52 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 180020 (down 5301) and an open interest of 101052 (up 5956). The closing price of the SM main contract was 5764, down 56 from the previous day and up 10 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 208571 (down 5195) and an open interest of 356141 (up 1378) [2]. - For silicon - iron spot, prices in some regions such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai increased by 30 yuan/ton on November 11th. For silicon - manganese spot, prices in some regions like Ningxia and Guangxi increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [2]. - Regarding the basis/spread, for silicon - iron, the basis of Inner Mongolia - main contract increased by 160. For silicon - manganese, the basis of Inner Mongolia - main contract increased by 56. The SF - SM spread was - 202, down 74 from the previous day and up 42 from the previous week [2]. - For raw materials, Tianjin port manganese ore spot prices increased by 0.1 - 0.2 yuan/ton degree, and the prices of semi - carbonates, Gabon blocks, etc. changed accordingly. The prices of blue charcoal small materials in some regions such as Shaanxi and Ningxia increased [2]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies Core View - The supply - demand situation of ferroalloys is weakening at the margin, but the cost side provides support. The previous short positions can be reduced at low prices [5]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Reduce previous short positions at low prices as the supply - demand is weakening marginally while the cost side is supportive [5][6]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. Important Information - On November 11th, the transaction prices of semi - carbonates, Gabon blocks, and Australian blocks at Tianjin Port were 34.2 - 34.5, 40.2, and 39 - 39.2 yuan/ton degree respectively [7]. - The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee during the heating season from 2025 - 2026, emphasizing stable energy production and supply, coal production organization, and safety production [7]. Group 3: Cost and Profit - For silicon - iron, the production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Qinghai, and Gansu were 5556, 5659, 5663, 5717, and 5765 yuan/ton respectively, all showing losses [16]. - For silicon - manganese, the production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou were 5805, 5834, 6339, and 6159 yuan/ton respectively, also with losses [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Overall, the finished steel products are supported by raw material costs at the lower end but constrained by inventory at the upper end, expected to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking speed of steel and downstream consumption, with the risk of negative feedback due to the decline in the profitability rate of steel enterprises [3]. - Iron ore prices will continue to be weak in the short term. Macroeconomic data in the US and China are weakening, and overseas risk events are reducing market drivers. Fundamentally, supply remains high, port inventories are accumulating, and demand is weak [20]. - Recently, downstream coke and steel mills have been replenishing stocks, and the inventory structure of coking coal has improved. However, steel mill profits are damaged, and the demand for coking coal and coke has peaked seasonally. In the medium - to - long term, policies restricting coking coal supply and winter storage may affect prices [30]. - Ferroalloys are expected to trade in a range as they return to the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand after the macro - sentiment fades, but are supported by costs [45]. - Soda ash prices are restricted by high inventory but supported by costs. There is a weakening expectation for its rigid demand due to the cold - repair expectation of glass [54]. - Glass sales have weakened recently, and the spot market is under pressure. There is a small expected decline in supply. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but there is cost support and policy expectation in the long - term [80]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3025 yuan/ton, down from 3044 yuan/ton on November 10. The closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3242 yuan/ton, down from 3252 yuan/ton on November 10 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3228 yuan/ton, up from 3223 yuan/ton on November 10. The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, down from 3270 yuan/ton on November 10 [8][10]. - **Spreads**: On November 11, 2025, the 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4, the same as on November 10; the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2, also the same as on November 10 [17]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of 01 contract was 763 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from November 10 and 12.5 yuan from November 4 [21]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 7, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 234.22 tons, down 2.14 tons week - on - week and 7.32 tons month - on - month. The 45 - port inventory was 14898.83 tons, up 356.35 tons week - on - week and 874.33 tons month - on - month [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1238 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 10. The coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1680 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 10 [34]. - **Market Situation**: Recently, downstream coke and steel mills have replenished stocks, and the inventory structure of coking coal has improved. However, steel mill profits are damaged, and the demand for coking coal and coke has peaked seasonally [30]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On November 11, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 42 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan from November 10. The silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from November 10 [45]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On November 11, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 206 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan from November 10. The silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5560 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from November 10 [47]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was 1292 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from November 10; the 09 contract was 1356 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from November 10; the 01 contract was 1215 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from November 10 [55]. - **Market Situation**: Soda ash prices are restricted by high inventory but supported by costs. There is a weakening expectation for its rigid demand due to the cold - repair expectation of glass [54]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1184 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan from November 10; the 09 contract was 1261 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan from November 10; the 01 contract was 1053 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from November 10 [81]. - **Market Situation**: Glass sales have weakened recently, and the spot market is under pressure. There is a small expected decline in supply. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but there is cost support and policy expectation in the long - term [80].