铁矿石周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年12月7日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFind Wind富宝资讯： 、 国泰君安期货研究所 铁矿观点：现货价格偏强，但未来供需压力仍存 ◼ 供应：西芒杜完成首船发运，时间较原计划有所推迟；海外发运维持相对高位； ◼ 需求：高炉开工延续季节性下滑，冬季需求短期难有显著利多驱动； ◼ 宏观层面：海外的降息预期逐渐形成共识，但国内风偏所反映出的是对政策干预力度不足的预期。 ◼ 逻辑总结阐述：近期黑色估值的回调主要集中在煤焦板块，但考虑到持续宽松的铁矿供需格局，其相对偏高的估值或面临较大下修压 力。 铁矿合约表现 ◼ 主力01合约价格震荡走弱，收于785.50元/吨，持仓25.2 万手，持仓减少13.9万手；日均成交量18.2万手，日均成 交周环比-5.41万手。 | | | 最近一周切片数据 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, iron ore supply is expected to remain strong, with shipments and arrivals higher than the same period in previous years. Vale is expected to reach the upper limit of its annual production target range. [11][14] - After the traditional peak season, due to the combined impact of poor downstream demand and profits, the number of blast furnace overhauls in steel mills has gradually increased, and the daily output has dropped to about 2.35 million tons, a decline from November. The proportion of profitable steel mills is less than 40%. [11][14] - Port inventories are on an upward trend. Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, there is still pressure to accumulate inventories before the Spring Festival. However, the structural contradiction of inventories has not been effectively resolved, so the spot market is expected to have some support despite high inventories. [11][14] - In November, the market entered a macro vacuum period, and the disk logic was mainly inclined to industrial reality. There are certain expectations in the market before the macro window in December. Overall, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Considering the expected loose supply pattern in 2026 and the lack of imagination on the demand side, if important meetings do not provide positive information for the black metal market, there may be phased downward pressure within the trading range. [11][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: In November, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 32.9675 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 123,100 tons. The weekly average of Australian shipments to China through 19 ports was 15.758 million tons, a decrease of 138,400 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 8.2403 million tons, a decrease of 245,700 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.3163 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 526,600 tons. [13] - **Demand**: The estimated average daily domestic pig iron output in November was 2.353 million tons, a decrease of 41,200 tons from the previous month. [13] - **Inventory**: At the end of November, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 152.1012 million tons, an increase of 6.6764 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of the daily ore handling volume at 45 ports was 3.271 million tons, an increase of 82,100 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.9061 million tons, a decrease of 60,600 tons from the previous month. [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Spreads**: At the end of November, the price spread between PB powder and Super Special powder was 111 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 22 yuan/ton. The price spread between Carajás fines and PB powder was 91 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The price spread between Carajás fines and Jinbuba powder was 147 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 22 yuan/ton. The price spread between (Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 and PB powder was -10 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 18.5 yuan/ton. [19][22] - **Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel**: At the end of November, the pellet feed ratio was 14.52%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.22%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The sinter feed ratio was 73.27%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,155 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month. [25] - **Profit**: At the end of November, the profitability rate of steel mills was 35.06%, a decrease of 9.96 percentage points from the end of the previous month. [28] - **Freight**: No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant charts are presented. 3.3 Inventory - At the end of November, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 152.1012 million tons, an increase of 6.6764 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 3.0235 million tons, an increase of 154,300 tons from the end of the previous month. The iron concentrate inventory was 12.8443 million tons, an increase of 1.306 million tons from the end of the previous month. The lump ore inventory was 19.7937 million tons, an increase of 1.1707 million tons from the end of the previous month. The Australian ore inventory at ports was 63.0746 million tons, an increase of 2.9006 million tons from the end of the previous month. The Brazilian ore inventory at ports was 59.8703 million tons, an increase of 2.4316 million tons from the end of the previous month. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 89.4248 million tons, an increase of 926,200 tons from the end of the previous month. [35][38][41][43] 3.4 Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In November, the weekly average of Australian shipments to China through 19 ports was 15.758 million tons, a decrease of 138,400 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 8.2403 million tons, a decrease of 245,700 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 6.0463 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 759,200 tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 5.872 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 261,600 tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 5.9513 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 317,400 tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 3.9543 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 122,700 tons. [49][52][55] - **Arrivals and Imports**: In November, the weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.3163 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 526,600 tons. In October, China's non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore imports were 19.8492 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.2656 million tons. [58] - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of November, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 60.77%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The average daily output of iron concentrate from domestic mines was 474,800 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the end of the previous month. [61] 3.5 Demand Side - **Pig Iron Output**: The estimated domestic pig iron output in November was 70.5902 million tons, and the average daily output was 2.353 million tons, a decrease of 41,200 tons from the previous month. At the end of November, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points from the end of the previous month. [66] - **Ore Handling and Consumption**: In November, the weekly average of the daily ore handling volume at 45 ports was 3.271 million tons, an increase of 82,100 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.9061 million tons, a decrease of 60,600 tons from the previous month. [69] 3.6 Basis - As of November 28, the estimated basis of the main contract of iron ore BRBF was 44.83 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.34%. [74]

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 15,300.81 90.69 15,210.12 90.69 15,280.51 20.30 247家钢厂进口矿库存 8,984.73 42.25 8,942.48 42.25 9,053.73 -69.00 国内45港铁矿石到货量 2,699.30 -117.80 2,817.10 -117.80 2,327.00 372.30 全球铁矿石发运量 3,323.20 44.78 3,278.42 44.78 3,020.70 302.50 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 232.30 -2.38 234.68 -2.38 235.94 -3.64 45港日均疏港量 318.45 -13.13 331.58 -13.13 325.66 -7.21 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 285.07 -4.36 289.43 -4.36 292.89 -7.82 主港铁矿成交周均值 116.58 12.86 103.72 12.86 109.74 6.84 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 铁矿石周度数据（20251205） 库存 供给 需求 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 5 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实压力未解，钢矿偏弱震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.13%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 重大会议临近，市场情绪偏暖，钢价震荡企稳，但供需双弱局面下螺纹 钢基本面并无实质性改善，上行驱动存疑，后续走势将延续震荡运行态 势，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0%日跌幅，量缩仓增。目前来看， 热卷供应压力缓解有限，而需求持续走弱，基本面表现偏弱，卷价继续 承压，相对利好则是重大会议临近带来乐观 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - This week, iron ore prices fell from their highs. The supply side has remained stable since November, with Australian mainstream ore remaining basically flat year-on-year, and Brazilian ore contributing a small increase. Non-mainstream shipments decreased slightly month-on-month from the high in the third quarter but still contributed an increase year-on-year. The overall supply in the fourth quarter is expected to remain loose. - On the demand side, the domestic terminal steel demand has been declining rapidly on a quarter-on-quarter basis since the third quarter, and there is no sign of significant improvement in the fourth quarter. In October, steel consumption in the real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors all declined. In the medium term, domestic terminal steel demand is expected to continue to operate at a low level. - Overseas demand for iron ore has maintained high growth. From January to October, overseas iron element consumption increased by 3.3% year-on-year, or 27 million tons. Since the second quarter, overseas iron element consumption has been at a high level year-on-year, continuously contributing to the increase. Among them, overseas India's crude steel output increased by 10% year-on-year from January to October, or 12.6 million tons, and is expected to contribute an additional 15 million tons for the whole year. - Overall, the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate medium-term iron ore prices. Since the fourth quarter, the domestic iron element supply-demand pattern has remained loose, domestic iron element inventories have continued to increase, and the fundamentals of iron ore have undergone significant changes. It is expected that iron ore prices will mainly operate at high levels with a downward trend. - Trading strategy: Adopt a bearish view for unilateral trading; hold a wait-and-see attitude for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish view for unilateral trading; hold a wait-and-see attitude for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - **Global Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments has been 31.21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, or 31.9 million tons. Among them, the weekly average of Australian shipments is 17.85 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, or 1.8 million tons, and the weekly average of Brazilian shipments is 7.64 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, or 13 million tons. - **Mainstream Mines in Australia and Brazil**: Since 2025, Rio Tinto's shipments have decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, or 1.9 million tons, BHP's shipments have decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, or 300,000 tons, FMG's shipments have increased by 4.8% year-on-year, or 8.2 million tons, and Vale's shipments have increased by 0.5% year-on-year, or 1.2 million tons. The overall supply of the four major mines has increased by more than 7 million tons year-on-year since the beginning of the year. - **Non-Mainstream Mines**: Since 2025, the weekly average of non-Australian and non-Brazilian ore shipments has been 5.72 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, or 21 million tons. The weekly average of non-mainstream Australian ore shipments is 2.37 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, or 7.9 million tons, and the weekly average of non-mainstream Brazilian ore shipments is 2.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, or 12 million tons. The non-mainstream ore shipments have been improving since the third quarter, and are expected to contribute a large increase for the whole year, but the domestic import volume is still negative year-on-year [15][17]. Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: Since the third quarter of 2025, domestic hot metal production has increased by 3% year-on-year, or 11.3 million tons, and crude steel production has increased by 2.6% year-on-year, or 11.8 million tons. Among them, the apparent demand for building materials has decreased by 4% year-on-year, or 7.8 million tons, the apparent demand for non-building materials has decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, or 4.8 million tons, and domestic crude steel consumption (excluding exports) has decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, or 12.6 million tons. The manufacturing steel demand has turned negative year-on-year since the third quarter, exerting significant pressure on the current terminal steel demand. - **Overseas Demand**: From January to October, overseas iron element consumption increased by 3.3% year-on-year, or 27 million tons. Since the second quarter, overseas iron element consumption has been at a high level year-on-year, continuously contributing to the increase. Among them, overseas India's crude steel output increased by 10% year-on-year from January to October, or 12.6 million tons, and is expected to contribute an additional 15 million tons for the whole year [30]. Inventory - **Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory**: This week, the imported iron ore port inventory increased slightly month-on-month, the steel mill inventory increased slightly, and the berthing volume remained basically flat, resulting in a month-on-month increase of over 1 million tons in the total domestic imported iron ore inventory. Since August, the total domestic iron element inventory has continued to increase, with an inventory accumulation of over 12 million tons. The current total domestic iron element inventory is at a five-year high, second only to the level in 2021 [26].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is in a state of continuous volume contraction and low volatility, with pro - cyclical sectors showing a structural upward trend. For different futures products, there are various trends and influencing factors, including macro - economic data, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4]. - The bond market has a fragile trading sentiment, with ultra - long bonds leading the decline. The market is affected by expectations of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as institutional behaviors [5][6][7]. - The precious metals market lacks clear direction due to a dull macro - news background. Gold is oscillating at a high level, while silver is in a corrective phase [8][9][11]. - The shipping index of container transportation to Europe is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern, with the spot market stabilizing and the peak - season expectation slightly recovering [12]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different market situations. For example, copper prices are strongly supported, while alumina is expected to have limited short - term decline space [17][19]. - In the black metals sector, steel mills are reducing production, and the iron ore market is expected to oscillate. Coke and coking coal markets are facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [49][52][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different outlooks. For example, the soybean meal market is waiting for the USDA report, and the pig market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [64][66]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products such as PX, PTA, and short - fibers have different supply - demand relationships and price trends [82][84][86]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: A - share major indices were narrowly oscillating. The CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. rose, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose [2][3]. - News: Domestically, the market regulatory authority issued a standard for take - out platform services. Overseas, the Bank of Japan officials made statements about monetary policy [3][4]. - Capital flow: A - share trading volume decreased by over 100 billion yuan, and the central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see in the short term. Consider a bull spread of put options on the CSI 1000 when there are pull - backs [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year contract leading the decline. Bond yields generally rose [5][6]. - Capital flow: The central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity remained loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. Consider participating in varieties within 10 - year if the market sentiment improves. The curve strategy may tend to steepen [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: As of the week of November 29, US employment data showed a pattern of low lay - offs and low recruitment. Gold oscillated at a high level, while silver corrected. Platinum and palladium also declined [8][9]. - Outlook: Gold may face resistance at high levels, and short - term trading can consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Silver may see a strong short - term price trend, but attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction. Platinum is expected to oscillate upward in the medium - to - long term [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index to Europe - Index: As of December 1, the SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [12]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different situations [12]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot market stabilized. It is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: Copper prices rose, and the discount of electrolytic copper increased. The overall trading was poor [13]. - Macro: The US manufacturing PMI was in a contraction range, and the ADP employment data was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts [13]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the 2026 long - term premium proposed by Codelco was significantly higher. The production of electrolytic copper in November increased [14][15]. - Demand: The weekly operating rates of copper rod processing decreased, but the downstream demand showed strong resilience [16]. - Inventory: LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [16]. - Logic: With the significant increase in LME cancelled warrants, copper prices are strongly supported. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the bottom price [17]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, with the main support level at 88,500 - 89,500 [17]. Alumina - Spot: Alumina prices were stable or slightly declined, and the supply pattern was gradually becoming looser [18]. - Supply: In November, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the phased production reduction in the north [18]. - Inventory: Alumina inventories increased [19]. - Logic: The market is in a state of high supply, high inventory, and cost support. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2,575 - 2,775 yuan/ton, with limited short - term decline space [19]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals Similar analysis methods are used for other non - ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, tin, etc., considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [20][28][33]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable, and the basis of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed differently [47]. - Cost and profit: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, and steel mill profits slightly recovered [48]. - Supply: Iron ore production increased slightly year - on - year, and steel production decreased slightly [48]. - Demand: Domestic demand was weak, and exports remained at a high level. The apparent demand in December was expected to decline seasonally [49]. - Inventory: Steel inventories decreased [49]. - View: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Consider a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage [49]. Iron Ore - Spot: Iron ore prices declined [50]. - Futures: The main iron ore futures contract declined slightly [50]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties changed [50]. - Demand: Steel mill production reduction continued, and iron ore demand decreased [51]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased [51]. - Inventory: Port inventories increased, and steel mill inventories decreased [52]. - View: Iron ore futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 750 - 820 [52]. Coking Coal and Coke Similar analysis methods are used for coking coal and coke, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [54][57]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Spot market: Domestic soybean meal prices were stable or slightly declined, and trading volume decreased [61]. - Fundamental news: Analysts expected changes in US soybean export sales, and the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was high [61][62]. - Market outlook: The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic soybean procurement [64]. Other Agricultural Products Similar analysis methods are used for other agricultural products such as pigs, corn, and sugar, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts [65][67][70]. Commodity Futures - Energy and Chemicals PX - Spot: PX prices continued to correct, and the market trading atmosphere was average [82]. - Profit: PX profit margins changed [82]. - Supply - demand: PX supply may contract in the first quarter, and demand was relatively strong [82]. - Market outlook: PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [82]. Other Energy and Chemical Products Similar analysis methods are used for other energy and chemical products such as PTA, short - fibers, and ethylene glycol, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [83][86][89].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-05 单边：震荡 跨品种：无 期现：无 基本面矛盾不足，钢价区间震荡运行 钢材：基本面矛盾不足，钢价区间震荡运行 市场分析 供需与逻辑：供应端，我的钢铁数据显示成材供应有所回落，需求压力仍在。板材供需矛盾仍未解决。当前弱现 实强预期叠加成本托底，后续需重点关注宏观政策落地力度、天气变化对施工的影响、终端需求释放节奏及冬储 行情启动情况。 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3148元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3323元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般偏 弱，价格基本和昨日持稳，低价为主，出货意愿持续增加，全国建材成交93867吨。 策略 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：需求预期走弱，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡偏弱运行，最终铁矿石2601合约收盘794.5元/吨；现货方面，报价整体小幅 下跌、成交氛围略显平淡，供需呈现宽松态势，采购价格多随行就市。全国主港铁矿累计成交85.6万吨，环比减少 26.84%。 供需与逻辑：目前供需矛盾持续蓄力，铁水产量环比减量，钢厂盈利率持续压缩，淡季逐渐深入，铁水季节性下 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened with mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.1%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.55% [1] - Sectors such as automotive disassembly, fiberglass, and HBM saw significant gains, while sectors like non-ferrous metals, forestry, and iron ore experienced declines [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities suggests that the market may exhibit a balanced characteristic with a focus on mid-cap blue chips, while small-cap growth stocks may show weakness [1] - The firm emphasizes selecting sectors with improving marginal prosperity, particularly those benefiting from global supply reshaping, policy stimulus, and structural upgrades in consumption [1] - Huachuang Securities notes a recovery in industry rotation intensity, with the technology sector expanding towards dividend and "anti-involution" assets [2] - The firm highlights that the Producer Price Index (PPI) has improved from a low of -3.6% to -2.1% in October, indicating a potential benefit for cyclical assets with high weight in dividend assets [2]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The steel market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coils between 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to continue narrowing in January. The long - position rebar and short - position iron ore arbitrage in the January contract can be held [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China remained at 3300 yuan/ton, while the 01 contract price increased by 11 yuan/ton to 3148 yuan/ton. The spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3310 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets remained unchanged at 2990 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 2 yuan/ton to 3247 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 29 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 2.0 tons to 232.0 tons, a decline of 0.9%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 26.8 tons to 829.0 tons, a decline of 3.1% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 35.2 tons to 1365.6 tons, a decline of 2.5%. The rebar inventory decreased by 27.7 tons to 503.8 tons, a decline of 5.2% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 0.4 to 9.4, a rise of 4.5%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 23.8 tons to 864.2 tons, a decline of 2.7% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The iron ore futures are expected to oscillate between 750 - 820 yuan/ton. Although the supply has increased and the demand has decreased, with the improvement of market expectations and the support of downstream restocking and basis repair, the price will not drop significantly [3]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt cost of various iron ore types decreased slightly. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás Fine decreased by 6.6 yuan/ton to 796.7 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5.0 yuan/ton to - 41.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.8% [3]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of various iron ore types at Rizhao Port decreased slightly. For example, the price of Carajás Fine at Rizhao Port decreased by 6.0 yuan/ton to 877.0 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 117.8 tons to 2699.3 tons, a decline of 4.2%, while the global shipment volume increased by 44.8 tons to 3323.2 tons, a rise of 1.4% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume increased by 3.6 tons to 330.6 tons, a rise of 1.1% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 27.3 tons to 15237.39 tons, a rise of 0.2%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decline of 0.7% [3]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The coke futures are expected to oscillate between 1550 - 1700 yuan/ton. The supply - demand relationship has weakened, but the futures have basically over - discounted the spot price cut expectations, and the downward space is limited. The 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage can be recommended [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The 01 contract price of coke increased by 27 yuan/ton to 1652 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, a rise of 1.2%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 tons to 46.6 tons, a rise of 0.6% [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased slightly by 1.7 tons to 883.0 tons. The inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 4.7 tons to 76.4 tons, a rise of 6.5% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 1.8 tons to - 2.5 tons, a rise of 74.2% [5]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The coking coal futures are expected to oscillate between 1050 - 1150 yuan/ton. The market is in a weak state, with supply and demand both showing certain changes, and the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage can be recommended [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The 01 contract price of coking coal increased by 21 yuan/ton to 1092 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decline of 0.3%. The clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [5]. - **Demand**: The demand for coking coal is affected by the decline in pig iron output and the weakening of market restocking demand [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 9.6 tons to 107.6 tons, a rise of 9.8%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.1 tons to 1009.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [5].