>>>>> ETF早知道 >>>>> ETF早知道 ETFEFR酒 WP Fund wabao <<<< 3555 ETFORTS 710715 Sep ETF星知道 1 C EFEFR演 cere 市场温度计 3333 ETFE 明波 中长期信号 · 投资看温度 -- 75% - 75% *** 75% -- 2596 ++ 25% -- 2595 ETFEFR酒 (CCCC -1.15% -1.06% -1.64% > > 上证指数 深证成指 创业板指 注:温度计水粮条由对应指数的近十年市盈丰分位数表示,总值为100%。数据来源:iFind,配至 2025.9.18,上证指数,深证成指、创业板指的近十年市盈率分位数分别为97.7%、84.12%、50.68% 官 相关闭 e CD e 6 前位到了 ETF是例邊 (4) 短期轮动走向 · 观九宫热力值 +0.93% +0.19% +0.03% 电子 通信 社会服务 FEFAN -0.33% -0.39% -2.25% 传媒 家用电器 汽车 -2.81% -2.85% -3.56% ETFEFR海 非银金融 综合 有色金属 ceee 数据来源:iFind,截 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong stocks in H1 2025 have stabilized and achieved positive growth, with net profit margins and ROE remaining at high levels, indicating robust operational efficiency [1][5] Group 1: Overall Performance - Hong Kong stocks in H1 2025 recorded revenue and profit growth rates of 1.9% and 4.6% respectively, despite facing significant pressure [1] - The overall net profit margin has increased quarter-on-quarter, while ROE has slightly decreased year-on-year to 5.2%, reflecting stable operational efficiency [1] - Among the 107 stocks with effective mid-year reports, nearly 50% exceeded profit expectations, indicating better-than-expected performance in the Hong Kong market [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - High-growth sectors include technology, healthcare, and materials, while energy, public utilities, real estate, and most consumer sectors continue to face performance pressures [2][3] - The technology sector's profit growth remains strong at 11.2%, outperforming stagnant growth in the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index [1] - The materials and industrial sectors are experiencing upward profit growth, while energy-related sectors are under pressure due to low demand and falling prices [2] Group 3: Defensive and Financial Sectors - Public utilities are under pressure, particularly electricity companies facing demand shortages and price declines, while telecommunications maintain around 5% profit growth [3] - The financial sector shows steady growth, with non-bank financials performing well due to a booming stock market and specific asset restructuring [3] - Insurance sector growth remains moderate, while banks continue to experience low single-digit growth due to narrowing net interest margins [3] Group 4: Growth Sectors - The technology sector benefits from hardware and semiconductor demand, with gaming and software companies also showing positive growth [4] - The healthcare sector is seeing steady growth, particularly in medical devices and services, while biotech is entering a performance realization phase [4] - Consumer sectors are mixed, with home appliances and media entertainment showing growth, while other consumer segments face profit pressures [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - Full-year performance expectations have improved post-earnings reports, with upward revisions in most sectors, particularly in materials, healthcare, and finance [5] - The second half of 2025 is expected to see a rebound in performance growth, especially in real estate, essential consumption, public utilities, and energy sectors [5] - The focus for investment strategies should be on sectors with high or improving growth prospects, such as metals, retail, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that Hong Kong stocks are expected to stabilize and achieve positive growth in the first half of 2025, with net profit margins and ROE remaining at high levels, reflecting robust operational efficiency [1] Industry Summary - The technology, pharmaceutical, and raw materials sectors are experiencing high prosperity, supporting the performance of Hong Kong stocks in the first half of 2025 [1] - Non-bank and certain consumer sectors are also showing positive performance, while the energy, public utilities, real estate, and most consumer sectors continue to face performance pressures [1] Performance Outlook - The earnings outlook for Hong Kong stocks is optimistic, with CITIC Securities projecting a turning point in earnings growth for the second half of 2025 [1] - It is expected that the raw materials, healthcare, and technology sectors will maintain high prosperity, with upward revisions in expectations [1] - Sectors that experienced low prosperity in the first half, such as energy and essential consumer goods, are anticipated to see a performance reversal in the second half [1] Market Dynamics - The current bull market in Hong Kong stocks, driven by liquidity, may continue to focus on sectors with positive fundamental expectations [1]

证券研究报告 2025 年 9 月 19 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 指数放量调整 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3831.66 | -1.15% | -44.68 | | | 深证成指 | 13075.66 | -1.06% | -139.80 | | | 沪深 300 | 4498.11 | -1.16% | -52.91 | | | 创业板 | 3095.85 | -1.64% | -51.49 | | | 科创 50 | 1380.35 | 0.72% | 9.92 | | | 北证 50 | 1591.17 | -1.01% | -16.27 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 申万行业表现前五 申万行业表现后五 概念板块表现前五 ◼ 概念板块表现后五 电子 0.93% 有色金属 -3.56% F5G 概念 1.45% 金属铅 -3.94% 通信 0.19% 综合 -2.85% 共封装光学 （CPO） 1.35% 金属锌 -3.88% 社会 ...

Group 1 - As of September 10, 2025, there are 12,837 active industrial bonds in the narrow credit bond market, with a total outstanding amount of 14.48 trillion yuan, covering 29 primary industries [7] - The non-bank financial sector (2,383 bonds / 2.58 trillion yuan) and public utilities (1,590 bonds / 2.54 trillion yuan) are the leading industries in terms of scale, with issuers primarily being high-rated central and state-owned enterprises [7] - The average remaining maturity of the outstanding industrial bonds is 2.76 years, with certain industries like defense and military, power equipment, and media having shorter maturities of less than 2 years [7] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the total revenue of industrial bond issuers decreased by 1.19% year-on-year, with technology sectors like computers and communications showing growth, while cyclical industries like coal, petrochemicals, and real estate experienced declines [8] - The net profit of industrial bond issuers fell by 2.32% year-on-year, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and construction materials showing growth, while sectors like power equipment and automotive saw declines [8] - The asset-liability ratio is notably high in the construction and real estate sectors, exceeding 70%, while industries like defense and military, and media have lower ratios below 50% [8] Group 3 - The cash-to-short-term debt ratio indicates strong short-term repayment capabilities in sectors like textiles, media, and defense, with coverage exceeding 100%, while agriculture, steel, and non-ferrous metals show weaker capabilities with coverage below 50% [9] - Operating cash flow for industrial bond issuers increased by 34.79% year-on-year, with 23 industries reporting net inflows, particularly in communications, comprehensive services, and electronics [9] - Financing cash flow also saw a year-on-year increase of 12.99%, with 23 industries reporting net inflows, including non-bank financials and power equipment [9]

9月18日，A股市场整体下跌。 截至收盘，上证指数收报3831.66点，下跌1.15%，深证成指收报13075.66点，下跌1.06%，创业板指数收报3095.85点，下跌1.64%，北证50指数下跌 1.01%。A股市场合计成交31670.31亿元，较上一交易日增加7638.46亿元。 1.A股市场全天主力资金净流出760.44亿元 今日A股市场主力资金开盘净流出203.53亿元，尾盘净流出196.21亿元，A股市场全天主力资金净流出760.44亿元。 | | | 沪深两市近五日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 人民文理 开幕争流入 | | 尾盘净流入 超大单净买入 | | 2025-9-18 | -760. 44 | -203.53 | -196. 21 | -332.00 | | 2025-9-17 | -328.39 | -128.05 | -39.90 | -150. 90 | | 2025-9-16 | -165.54 | -44. 85 | 4. 60 | -5. 75 | | 2025-9-15 | -340 ...

9月18日，A股市场整体下跌。 截至收盘，上证指数收报3831.66点，下跌1.15%，深证成指收报13075.66点，下跌1.06%，创业板指数收报3095.85点，下跌1.64%，北证50指数下跌 1.01%。A股市场合计成交31670.31亿元，较上一交易日增加7638.46亿元。 1.A股市场全天主力资金净流出760.44亿元 今日A股市场主力资金开盘净流出203.53亿元，尾盘净流出196.21亿元，A股市场全天主力资金净流出760.44亿元。 | | | 沪深两市近五日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 人民党理市 露金人民党 | | 尾盘净流入 超大单净买入 | | 2025-9-18 | -760. 44 | -203.53 | -196. 21 | -332.00 | | 2025-9-17 | -328. 39 | -128. 05 | -39.90 | -150. 90 | | 2025-9-16 | -165. 54 | -44. 85 | 4. 60 | -5. 75 | | 2025-9-15 | ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with major indices reaching new highs before a collective decline in the afternoon, indicating a potential market correction after a period of rapid growth [2][6] - As of September 17, the margin trading balance reached a historical record of 2.4054 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.51% of the A-share market's circulating market value, still below the peak of 4.73% in 2015 [2][3] - The sectors attracting leveraged funds include electronics, power equipment, non-bank financials, and computers, with significant net purchases observed in these industries [4][5] Group 2 - The number of individual investors in the A-share market has been increasing, rising from 7.6148 million on September 1 to 7.6611 million by September 17 [4] - The trading volume on September 18 reached 3.13 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 758.4 billion yuan compared to the previous day, indicating heightened market activity [6][8] - Analysts suggest that the market will continue to experience a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, with high-valuation tech stocks facing pressure in the absence of continuous easing support [6][9] Group 3 - The most favored stocks by leveraged funds include popular names such as Dongfang Caifu, China Ping An, and BYD, with financing balances exceeding 24 billion yuan for some [5] - The sectors with the highest net purchases from September 1 to 17 include power equipment, electronics, and non-bank financials, while the defense industry saw significant net selling [4][5] - The overall sentiment remains optimistic for the long-term outlook of the A-share market, supported by factors such as economic stability, low valuations, and increasing investor returns through dividends and buybacks [9]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with major indices reaching new highs before a collective pullback, indicating a potential period of market consolidation after a rapid rise [3][10]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of September 17, the margin trading balance reached a historic high of 2.4054 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.51% of the A-share market's circulating value, still below the peak of 4.73% in 2015 [4][5]. - On September 18, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index hit new highs in the morning but fell in the afternoon, closing down 1.15% and 1.06% respectively [3][11]. - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.13 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 758.4 billion yuan compared to the previous day [11]. Group 2: Investor Activity - The number of individual investors increased from 761.48 million on September 1 to 766.11 million by September 17, indicating growing participation in the market [7]. - The number of investors with margin trading liabilities rose to 1.8187 million by September 17, reflecting increased leverage in trading activities [7]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The sectors attracting the most margin trading interest include electronics, power equipment, non-bank financials, and computers, with margin balances exceeding 100 billion yuan in several cases [7][8]. - Notable stocks with high margin trading balances include Dongfang Caifu, China Ping An, and CITIC Securities, with balances exceeding 240 billion yuan [8][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may experience a prolonged period of back-and-forth trading, with high valuation tech stocks under pressure due to the lack of continuous easing support, although the medium to long-term outlook remains positive [10][13]. - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut is expected to have a mixed impact on the A-share market, with short-term expectations already priced in but medium-term benefits anticipated [12][13].

在业内看来，短暂多空博弈不影响中长期向好趋势。 9月18日，A股市场先扬后抑，三大指数早盘均创出阶段性新高，但午后集体回调。两融余额在前一天首度站上2.4万亿元关口，后市资金动向和行情受到市 场关注。 截至17日，两融余额达到2.4054万亿元，刷新历史纪录，两融余额占A股流通市值的比例为2.51%，仍低于2015年的峰值4.73%。杠杆资金青睐的行业主要为 电子、电力设备、非银金融、计算机等行业，9月以来融资净买入较多的个股也多为近阶段涨势不俗的热门股。 18日早盘，A股市场整体涨势喜人，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指均创出阶段性新高，其中沪指逼近3900点，但午后集体下跌，最终三大指数分别收跌 1.15%、1.06%、1.64%。 在业内看来，A股前期高速上涨之后，多空力量可能会博弈一段时间，其中高估值的科技股在缺乏连续宽松支撑下相对承压，但中长期向好的趋势不会改 变。 两融余额首度站上2.4万亿 随着A股市场震荡上行，杠杆资金也陆续跑步入场。9月1日，两融余额创出历史新高之后，持续刷新历史数据，到17日首度站上2.4万亿元关口。 较前一个交易日，17日的两融余额增加127.92亿元，两融余额占A股流通市值 ...