1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal market has shifted to a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to macro - events. For rebar, it is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct short - term trading; for iron ore, it is expected to move in a volatile manner; for coking coal and coke, a neutral stance of waiting and observing is advised [5][36][74] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar - **Investment Strategy**: The rebar market is expected to shift to a volatile pattern. It is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct short - term trading. The static valuation has returned to a neutral level. Attention should be paid to the outcomes of Sino - US economic and trade talks, signals from the Politburo meeting, the implementation of crude steel production restrictions, and the situation of coking coal futures position limits [5][6] - **Market Review**: The price of coking coal increased due to production over - inspection, driving up the price of steel. The spot price of rebar in Hangzhou rose by 200 yuan/ton to 3490 yuan/ton week - on - week, the futures price of the rebar 10 contract rose by 209 yuan/ton to 3356 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly narrowed to 134 yuan [9][14] - **Steel Mill Profits**: The profits of long - process steel mills expanded, with an estimated profit of about 378 yuan/ton in East China. The profits of short - process steel mills improved, with a profit of about 105 yuan/ton for flat - rate electricity. The profitability rate of 247 sample steel mills was 63.64% (+3.47) [20] - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: Rebar production increased by 2.90 tons to 211.96 tons, apparent demand increased by 10.41 tons to 216.58 tons, and inventory decreased by 4.62 tons to 538.64 tons [27] - **Valuation**: As of last Friday's close, the rebar futures price rose to near the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces, and the static valuation has returned to a neutral level [29] - **Key Data/Policy/News**: Major events include the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, the upcoming release of a stable growth plan for ten key industries by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, a coal mine production inspection notice, and Sino - US economic and trade talks [31] Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Strategy**: A neutral stance of waiting and observing is recommended. For coking coal, the short - term supply - demand pattern is tight, and price support is strong. For coke, there is still an expectation of price increases [36][37] - **Market Review**: Coking coal prices increased, with domestic and foreign coal prices rising. Coke prices continued to rise, with both spot and futures prices increasing [39][55] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: For coking coal, supply is affected by factors such as production adjustments in major producing areas, and demand is strong. For coke, supply is temporarily shrinking, and demand is strong, with low inventory levels [36] - **Inventory Situation**: The overall inventory of coking coal decreased, with upstream de - stocking being obvious. The overall inventory of coke slightly decreased [53][70] Iron Ore - **Investment Strategy**: The iron ore market is expected to move in a volatile manner at a high level and can be considered as a long - leg position when shorting other black metal varieties [74] - **Market Review**: The iron ore futures price adjusted downward from a high level last week. The spot prices of various grades of iron ore increased, and the futures price of the 09 contract rose by 17.5 yuan/ton to 802.5 yuan/ton [74][75] - **Supply Analysis**: Domestic production has recovered, with an increase in the daily output of iron concentrate powder. Global shipments have slightly increased, with an increase in Brazilian shipments. Port arrivals and port clearance volumes have both declined, and port inventories have increased [89][90][101] - **Demand Analysis**: The daily output of hot metal is basically flat, steel mills have good profits, and the replenishment rhythm for iron ore is maintained [74] - **Inventory Situation**: Port inventories of iron ore have increased, and the total inventory of ports and steel mills has also increased [106]

铁矿周报 2025 年 7 月 28 日 供需变化不大 情绪主导震荡为主 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 ⚫ 需求端：上周新增1座高炉复产，1座高炉检修，铁水 产量环比小幅减少。上周247家钢厂高炉开工率 83.46%，环比上周持平，同比去年增加1.13个百分 点，日均铁水产量 242.23万吨，环比上周减少0.21 万吨，同比去年增加2.62万吨。 ⚫ 供应端：上周海外发运量环比小幅回升，处于近三年 同期偏高水平。上周全球铁矿石发运总量3109.1万 吨，环比增加122.0万吨。库存方面，全国47个港口 进口铁矿库存14395.68万吨，环比增加14.17万吨； 日均疏港量329.33万吨，降9.43万吨。 ⚫ 总体上，上周新增1座高炉复产，1座高炉检修，铁水 产量环比小幅减少。供应端，上周海外发运量环比小 幅回升，处于近三年同期偏高水 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $750 billion worth of US energy products. This will lead to a short - term decline in the US dollar index [15]. - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, but risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [3]. - The 10 - department joint issuance of the plan to promote agricultural product consumption aims to boost agricultural product consumption through various measures. The decline in industrial enterprise profits in June has narrowed, and the new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth [17][18]. - The export data of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to increase. Steel prices have risen significantly due to the continuous increase in coking coal and coke prices and the relatively strong fundamentals of finished products, but there is a risk of overvaluation [5]. - Polysilicon is expected to correct in the short term, and it is advisable to consider short - selling lightly through options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. The EU hopes to continue discussions on steel and aluminum tariffs with the US. The applicable tariff will be the higher of the "most - favored - nation tariff" or 15%. The short - term market risk preference will moderately recover, and the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will decline in the short term [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - 10 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption" to promote agricultural product consumption through various measures. In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the decline has narrowed. The new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which may set an example for upcoming China - US tariffs. A Politburo meeting will be held this week, and attention should be paid to its statements on the economic work in the second half of the year [17][18][19]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate stock indexes evenly [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, but there are still differences in key industry tariffs. The US durable goods orders in June decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, better than the expected - 10.7%. The core data excluding Boeing orders performed well. The US - EU tariff negotiation has accelerated, and the risk of further deterioration of the tariff level has decreased, supporting market risk preference [21][22]. - Investment advice: The trade negotiation is moving in a positive direction, and it will still fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 601.8 billion yuan. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, and the funds are expected to become looser after the end of the month. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [23]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to cautiously bet on the opportunity of oversold rebound next week. Do not be bearish in the long term, but the market will be volatile in Q3, and it may be too early for allocation buyers to go long at present [24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market is running strongly. The recent futures price increase is mainly due to macro - policies. The National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal mine production in key coal - producing provinces, but the actual impact of checking over - production may be limited. The price may return to the fundamentals. The supply of coking coal has recovered partially this week, and the coke price has increased for the third time, with some steel mills accepting the increase [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market sentiment for coking coal is still strong, but the risk is high as the price rises significantly. Pay attention to position management [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 30th week was 2.2389 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.94%. It is expected to reach 2.3726 million tons and 66.69% in the 31st week. From July 1 - 25, the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.23% month - on - month. The production of Malaysian palm oil in July is expected to increase, and the inventory will increase significantly. China may export 100,000 - 120,000 tons of soybean oil to India [28][29]. - Investment advice: The data from Malaysia is bearish for palm oil. It is not recommended to short unilaterally. Consider buying put options or waiting for opportunities to go long at low prices. For international soybean oil, focus on US weather and bio - fuel policies. For domestic soybean oil, if exports to India increase, it will support prices [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The international sugar price has fluctuated greatly. The expected increase in production in Brazil and India and the rumor of India's export in the 2025/26 season have put pressure on the price. India's sugar export may be unfeasible at current international prices. The sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have cleared their warehouses, and the spot price in Guangxi has remained stable with a narrow - range shock. The sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil has decreased in June [31][33][34]. - Investment advice: The international sugar market is under pressure from supply. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate mainly. Pay attention to the resistance level of 5900 yuan [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the first half of 2025, China's cotton product exports increased under pressure. As of mid - July, the pre - sale progress of Brazilian cotton in 2025 was 65%. As of July 17, the weekly net signing of US cotton in the 25/26 season was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%. The ICE cotton price is expected to be in a low - level shock pattern in the short term [36][37][39]. - Investment advice: The lack of news about increased import quotas in China, tight old - cotton inventory, and high operating rates in Xinjiang spinning mills will support cotton prices in the short term. However, the demand from inland spinning mills is weakening, and the increase in warehouse receipts and the expectation of increased production in the 25/26 season may limit the upward trend of cotton prices [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina has lowered the export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has remained high. China has stopped purchasing US soybeans since the end of May, and the pre - sale of US new - crop soybeans is significantly lower than the normal level in previous years [41][42]. - Investment advice: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Focus on the development of the China - US trade war. Soybean meal inventory will continue to accumulate, and the spot basis will remain weak [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Most coal mines in Ordos maintained normal production on July 23, and the coal price was stable with a slight increase. The implementation of the over - production policy and high summer temperatures are expected to keep the coal price strong. The power plant's inventory has decreased slightly, and the coal price is expected to return to around the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan [43][44]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain strong, and it is expected to return to around 670 yuan, the long - term agreement price [44]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore production and sales of Mount Gibson in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. Affected by coking coal and coke, the iron ore price has fluctuated strongly, but it has encountered resistance after breaking through $105. The long - term increase in the price center of coking coal and coke will suppress the upside potential of iron ore [45]. - Investment advice: Observe the follow - up of the spot market after the price pull - back. The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, so it is recommended to reduce the position [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The fifth blast furnace of Vietnam's Hoa Phat Group's Dung Quat Steel Complex has been put into operation, increasing the annual production capacity by 5.6 million tons. The total new - signed contract value of the top seven construction central enterprises in the first six months exceeded 5.9 trillion yuan. South Korea will impose temporary anti - dumping duties on hot - rolled steel plates imported from China and Japan. Steel prices have risen significantly, but there is a risk of overvaluation [47][49][50]. - Investment advice: Steel prices will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously [51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn starch sugar is average, and the operating rate has decreased. The consumption of corn and corn starch has decreased this week [52]. - Investment advice: Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. This is not favorable for the rice - flour price difference [53][54]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 2.5 percentage points year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy in the breeding industry may reduce the corn demand in the new year [55]. - Investment advice: The stalemate in the spot market may continue until the new corn is on the market. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. Hold the short positions of new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures. The price of lithium carbonate has increased, and there are rumors about production cuts in some areas. The limit - trading measure is expected to stabilize the market [56][57]. - Investment advice: Before the production cuts are confirmed, there is no upward momentum for the price. Pay attention to the downstream procurement. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory and reverse arbitrage [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The EU has started monitoring the trade of scrap copper and aluminum. Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine. Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary has started its new smelter [59][60][61]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, be cautious about the repeated macro - expectations. The copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit, daily limit, margin, and handling fees for industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, but the actual transaction has not changed much. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in July and August, with a monthly surplus of 100,000 - 200,000 tons [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: The delivery price of polysilicon sets a lower limit for the futures price. However, due to the difficulty of the spot price to keep up with the futures price increase, the short - term price is expected to correct. Consider short - selling lightly through options and look for opportunities to go long after the correction [66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production and operating rate of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, the Northwest, Yunnan, and Sichuan have shown different trends. The social inventory has decreased, and the factory inventory has increased. The supply is expected to increase with the resumption of production, and the supply - demand gap will narrow in August [67][68][69]. - Investment advice: After the price increase, the basis of industrial silicon has weakened rapidly. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options [69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Danantara is considering acquiring the GNI smelter in Indonesia. The nickel price has been strong recently but fell on Friday night. There are different statements about Indonesia's nickel export policy. The price of Philippine nickel ore has decreased, and the price of nickel iron has increased, but the steel mills' purchasing intention is not strong [70][71]. - Investment advice: The nickel price is closely related to macro - sentiment. It is recommended to use options for hedging in unilateral trading. Holders can sell for hedging at high prices [72]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - From January to June 2025, the number of electric bicycles recycled and replaced was 8.465 million each. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1. The overseas macro - situation has limited fluctuations. The supply of primary lead is tight, and the production of secondary lead has increased slightly. The demand from end - users has not improved significantly, but the lead social inventory may turn around [73][74][75]. - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices and manage the position well. For arbitrage, it is recommended to observe temporarily [76]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The port inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased by 860,000 tons compared with last week. The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc has turned negative, but the注销仓单 is still high. The zinc smelting profit may improve in August, and the supply is expected to remain high. The demand from primary processing industries is differentiated, and the social inventory has increased significantly [77][78]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the risk is high, and it is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of medium - term calendar spread positive arbitrage. It is recommended to observe in terms of domestic - foreign trading [79]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 25, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 71.34 euros/ton, a 0.65% increase from the previous day and a 2.07% increase from last week. The investment funds reduced their net long positions by 100,000 tons last week. The carbon price is expected to be volatile in the short term [80]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will be volatile in the short term [81]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle - East oil price has strengthened relative to Brent. The increase in the Middle - East oil export volume is limited. The strong diesel crack spread and EU sanctions on Russia support the Middle - East oil price [82][83]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain volatile. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and market risk preference [84]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was slightly adjusted. The supply has increased, and the demand is average. The caustic soda futures price has increased due to the overall positive sentiment in the commodity market, but the increase is limited [85][86]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda valuation is not low, and the speculative demand is difficult to stimulate, resulting in a small increase [86]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is generally stable, with individual prices increasing slightly. The futures price has continued to rise, but the downstream paper mills' follow - up is not strong, and high - price transactions are difficult [87]. - Investment advice: Due to the "anti - involution" policy, low - valued pulp may be targeted by funds. Investors should pay attention to the risks [88]. 3.

铁矿石周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：原料利润再分配，矿价承压下修 | | | 最近一周切片数据 | | | | | | YTD累计发运数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 条 目 | | 当周值 | 环 比 | 同 | 比 | | 29W2025 | 29W2024 | 累计同比 | 累计同比% | | | 全球发货量 | 3109 | 1 . | 122 0 . | 199 | 0 . | 全球发货 | 87478 | 87277.8 | 200.2 | 0.2% | | | 澳发货量 | 1571 | 2 . | -116 7 . | -102 | 4 . | 澳发货 | 51047.9 | 51683.3 | -635.4 | -1.2% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term commodity sentiment is being extremely interpreted, and attention should be paid to the possible inflection point of the sentiment. As an important meeting in July is approaching, the iron ore price is expected to turn into a volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the overall sentiment of the black sector and the macro - economic realization. The iron ore price increase is due to the domestic commodity policy expectations and the profit space given by downstream industries under the condition of a not - bad short - term supply - demand situation. After the coking coal becomes overly strong, it squeezes the iron ore price, resulting in a decline in the iron ore price after the continuous sharp rise of coking coal this week [11][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume was 31.091 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.52 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.068 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 16.294 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.089 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.436 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.135 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 9.226 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.021 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 25.118 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.714 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 23.712 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.909 million tons [13]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0021 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, unchanged from last week; the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a week - on - week increase of 3.47 percentage points [13]. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 143.9568 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1417 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2933 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0943 million tons [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 126 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 3 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 144 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 7 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was - 13 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feeding ratio was 15.22%, an increase of 0.25 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.23%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points from the previous period. The sinter feeding ratio was 72.55%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points from the previous period. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,285 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 80 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 30 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a week - on - week change of + 3.47 percentage points; the PB powder import profit was - 4.74 yuan/wet ton [28]. - Freight: Information about international Baltic dry bulk shipping index and freight rates per country is presented in the figures but no summary data is given in the text. 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 137.9038 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.0517 million tons. The pellet inventory was 390,290 tons, a week - on - week change of - 29,060 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory at ports was 1.0815 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 950 tons. The lump ore inventory at ports was 1.6825 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 87,250 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 61.9325 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.7543 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 47.786 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.5763 million tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.88522 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.06306 million tons [35][38][41][45]. 3.4 Supply Side - Shipment Volume: The volume of Australian iron ore shipped to China through 19 ports was 13.854 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.015 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 9.078 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.974 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipment volume to China was 4.571 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.514 million tons. BHP's shipment volume to China was 4.6 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.755 million tons. Vale's shipment volume was 6.856 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.677 million tons. FMG's shipment volume to China was 2.79 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.79 million tons [50][53][56]. - Arrival Volume: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.712 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 2.909 million tons. The non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore import volume in China in June was 15.4151 million tons, a month - on - month change of - 2.6103 million tons [59]. - Domestic Mines: The domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 61.51%, a week - on - week change of + 0.57 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 48,030 tons, a week - on - week change of + 450 tons [65]. 3.5 Demand Side - Pig Iron Output and Blast Furnace Utilization: The domestic daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0021 million tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a week - on - week change of - 0.08 percentage points [70]. - Port Clearance and Steel Mill Consumption: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1515 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0759 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 3.011 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0015 million tons [73]. 3.6 Basis - As of July 25, the calculated iron ore IOC6 basis was 46.13 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.44% [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated widely at a high level, and market divergence increased at the phased high. The iron ore price has risen by about 15% from the bottom, and market expectations have improved rapidly. The current valuation has returned to a relatively reasonable level, and the market is optimistic. It is expected that iron ore prices will show a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The trading strategies are as follows: for single - side trading, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Price Trend and Market Expectations**: Iron ore prices fluctuated widely at a high level this week, and market divergence increased at the phased high. The price has risen by about 15% from the bottom, and market expectations have improved rapidly [3]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: The shipments of mainstream mines have entered the seasonal off - season, with no significant increase expected. Last week, the shipments of non - mainstream mines rebounded significantly on a week - on - week basis. In July, it is expected to continue the high - shipment level of June, but the overall impact on supply pressure is not significant [3]. - **Fundamentals - Demand**: In June, the real estate was still at the bottom, infrastructure investment weakened on a month - on - month basis, and the demand for construction steel remained low. The year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment in June was 5.1%, showing a rapid decline on a month - on - month basis, which may be related to the high proportion of pre - used equipment renewal funds. However, it is still the main supporting factor in fixed - asset investment. Although the growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry has slowed down, its resilience is expected to continue [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side trading is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Iron Ore Shipment - **Global Shipment**: The global iron ore shipment has entered the seasonal off - season. This week, the global shipment volume was 31.09 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.99 million tons. Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments has been 30.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.2% (2 million tons) [7][9]. - **Australia and Brazil Shipment**: The total shipment of Australia and Brazil this week was 24.79 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.97 million tons. The shipment of Australian mines decreased on a week - on - week basis, while that of Brazilian mines increased. Since 2025, the weekly average shipment of Australian mines has been 17.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% (6.4 million tons), and that of Brazilian mines has been 7.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% (7.8 million tons) [7][9]. - **Non - Australia and Brazil Shipment**: The non - Australia and Brazil shipment this week was 6.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.41 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.03 million tons. Since 2025, the weekly average of non - Australia and Brazil mines has been 5.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% (0.6 million tons) [7][12]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Last week, the port inventory of imported iron ore was basically flat on a week - on - week basis, with a slight increase in the number of ships waiting at ports. The total inventory of iron ore in steel mills increased relatively quickly on a week - on - week basis, resulting in a 1.76 - million - ton increase in the total inventory of imported iron ore in China on a week - on - week basis. Since the beginning of the year, the inventory of imported iron ore ports in China has decreased by more than 10 million tons [21][23]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Pressure**: With the high - level demand for steel in the manufacturing industry and the high - level operation of hot metal production year - on - year, although the demand for steel in China will enter the seasonal off - season in the third quarter and decline on a month - on - month basis, it is expected to continue to increase year - on - year. The current total inventory of imported iron ore is at a moderately high level, and the inventory pressure is not significant [23]. 3.2.3 Terminal Demand - **Overall Demand Indicators**: Since 2025, China's hot metal production has increased by 3.1% (14.9 million tons) year - on - year, and crude steel production has increased by 1.4% (8.3 million tons) year - on - year (after correction). The apparent demand for building materials has decreased by 3.9% (9.5 million tons) year - on - year, while the apparent demand for non - building materials has increased by 5.7% (15.3 million tons) year - on - year. China's crude steel consumption has increased by 1.2% (6 million tons) year - on - year (excluding exports) [28]. - **Industry - Specific Demand**: In June, the real estate was still at the bottom, infrastructure investment weakened on a month - on - month basis, and the demand for construction steel remained low. The year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment in June was 5.1%, showing a rapid decline on a month - on - month basis, but it is still the main supporting factor in fixed - asset investment. The growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry has slowed down, but its resilience is expected to continue [28]. 3.3 Iron Ore Fundamental Data Tracking 3.3.1 Imported Iron Ore Port Price and Profit - **Port Price**: The report provides price data of 62% Platts iron ore price index, Qingdao Port PB powder price, Qingdao Port lump ore price, etc., as well as the spread between high - and low - grade powder ores and the relationship with steel mill profits [35]. - **Port Profit**: It shows the import profits of PB powder, lump ore, Super Special powder, Jinbuba, etc. [37]. 3.3.2 Steel Mill Profit - **East China Steel Mill Profit**: The profits of mainstream steel mills in East China have rebounded from the bottom, including cash profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils, iron - making costs, electric - furnace costs, etc. [39]. 3.3.3 Internal and External Market Dollar Spread - **Dollar Spread Indicators**: It includes the spread between SGX main contract and DCE contracts (converted to PB pricing), the premium rate of Singapore iron ore over domestic iron ore, and the iron ore basis rate [42]. 3.3.4 Scrap Steel Consumption and Arrival - **Scrap Steel Data**: This week, the total daily consumption of 255 scrap steel was 518,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,000 tons and a year - on - week increase of 62,000 tons. The data of arrival, consumption, and inventory of scrap steel in different steel mills are also provided [44]. 3.3.5 Iron Ore Basis and Spread - **Basis and Spread Characteristics**: Iron ore shows a weak basis for the main contract and a weak backwardation for the far - month contract, and relevant basis and spread data are provided [45][46]. 3.3.6 Domestic Iron Concentrate Production, Demand, and Inventory - **Production and Demand Data**: It includes domestic iron concentrate production, production in North China, production and inventory of 363 mines, and apparent demand for imported iron ore and domestic iron ore [48].

交易咨询证号：Z0019583 研究联系方式： kangjian@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 静待铁水回落 观点小结 铁矿石 解析 铁矿周报 2025/7/23 作者：康健 从业资格证号：F03088041 库存 45港库存环比增19.24万吨，贸易矿占比65.7%。钢厂进口矿总库存减157.48万吨，厂库增16万吨，海漂+港口减174万吨；进口矿可用 天数增长1天至20天。 钢厂利润 成材利润继续走弱；唐山废铁价差走低；块矿入炉比大幅走高，球团入炉比上行；烧结入炉比下滑。 折扣&汇率 7月MA指数均值为100，对应盘面估值约为788。 品种间差异 金巴布粉溢价继续回升；主流中低品溢价稳定；内外矿价差回落。 天气 巴西降水稀少 巴西天气：北部降水回落，其他地区降水稀少 周度评述 供应端全球发运量企稳回升，澳洲发运企稳，巴西发运偏高，非主流地区发运低位企稳，到港量开始回升。需求端铁水再度增长，成 材利润下滑，废铁价差下滑，247样本日均铁水环比+2.63万吨至242.44万吨，7月的月均铁水约241万吨，近期钢厂高炉复产与检修持 平， ...

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight increase in global shipments and a decrease in port arrivals, while steel mills maintain high production levels and profitability, indicating a resilient demand despite seasonal trends [7]. Supply - Global shipments of iron ore increased to 31.09 million tons, up by 1.22 million tons week-on-week, while port arrivals decreased to 23.71 million tons, down by 2.91 million tons [5]. - Monthly national imports reached 105.948 million tons, an increase of 7.82 million tons compared to the previous month [5]. Demand - Daily iron water production averaged 2.4244 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace operating rate of 83.46%, up by 0.31% [4]. - The profitability of steel mills stands at 60.17%, reflecting a 0.43% increase, indicating strong financial performance [4]. Inventory - Port inventory saw a slight increase, with total inventory at 137.9038 million tons, up by 51,700 tons week-on-week [6]. - The average daily dispatch volume from ports decreased to 3.1515 million tons, down by 75,900 tons [6]. - Steel mills' imported ore inventory rose to 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 630,600 tons [6]. Market Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to maintain high production levels in July, averaging around 2.4 million tons per day, supported by improved steel mill profitability [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce new policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, which may influence supply-side dynamics [7]. - Short-term iron ore prices are anticipated to fluctuate, with recommendations for traders to gradually take profits on long positions and consider arbitrage strategies [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but offers investment suggestions for different asset classes and sectors: - Stocks: Short - term cautious long [2][3] - Bonds: Short - term high - level oscillatory correction, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Commodities: - Black metals: Short - term volatile increase, short - term cautious long [2] - Non - ferrous metals: Short - term oscillatory rebound, short - term cautious long [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term oscillation, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Precious metals: Short - term high - level oscillation, cautious long [2] Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, and the US economic growth accelerated due to better - than - expected PMI and employment data, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, although the economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, consumption and investment slowed down in June. The "anti - involution" policy and the ten - industry growth - stabilizing policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [2]. - Different asset classes and sectors have different trends and investment suggestions based on their fundamentals and policy impacts. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Global situation**: The European Central Bank's decision, the EU's anti - tariff plan, and the easing of global trade tensions, along with the better - than - expected US economic data, have led to a rise in global risk appetite. The US dollar index rebounded [2]. - **Domestic situation**: The first - half economic growth was higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slowed. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Asset performance**: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term; bonds to correct at a high level; black metals to be volatile; non - ferrous metals to rebound; energy and chemicals to oscillate; precious metals to oscillate at a high level [2]. Stocks - Driven by sectors such as Hainan concept, energy metals, and rare earth permanent magnets, the domestic stock market continued to rise. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market was oscillating strongly on Thursday. The supply contraction expectation of coking coal supported the steel market. The real - world demand was weak, and the production and consumption of five major steel products decreased. The supply may be restricted around the 9.3 parade. The market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [4]. - **Iron ore**: The spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly on Thursday, while the futures price continued to weaken. The pig iron production is at a high level but has limited upward space. The global iron ore shipment increased, but the shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased. The price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [4]. - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese decreased on Thursday. The demand for ferroalloys was weak due to the decline in steel production. The prices of raw materials such as manganese ore and coal were strong. The steel tender price increased. The prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The EU and the US are approaching a tariff agreement. The upcoming Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilizing plan has boosted sentiment. The future trend of copper prices depends on the tariff implementation time [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum oscillated narrowly on Thursday. The import of scrap aluminum decreased. The fundamentals are weak, but the policy has boosted sentiment. The price increase is limited [11]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but has limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upward space will be restricted in the medium term [12]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate increased significantly on Thursday. Supply disruptions and policy sentiment support the price, which is expected to be oscillating strongly [13]. - **Industrial silicon**: The price of industrial silicon decreased slightly on Thursday. The "anti - involution" sentiment has an impact, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon increased significantly on Thursday. The margin requirements have been adjusted. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: The EU and the US are close to a tariff agreement, but the resumption of Chevron's production in Venezuela may increase supply. The oil price is expected to be bearish in the long term and oscillate in the short term [16]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt is stable after a correction. The inventory de - stocking has stagnated, and the demand in the peak season is average. The price is expected to follow the crude oil price in the short term, with limited upward space [16]. - **PX**: The support from the previous strong resonance of the sector has weakened. PX is in a tight supply situation, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [17]. - **PTA**: The PTA price has increased, but the spot drive is weak. The demand is in the off - season, and the processing fee is low. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol has increased. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber has increased driven by the crude oil price and sector resonance. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the medium term [18]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol has increased. The inventory has decreased, but the long - term supply pressure is large. The price is expected to be strong in the short term but limited in the long term [19]. - **PP**: The price of PP has adjusted slightly. The policy expectation is positive, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure in the long term [20]. - **PL**: The price of propylene is stable. The supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [20]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE has adjusted. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price may rebound in the short term but has a downward trend in the long term [21]. - **Urea**: The price of urea is in a stalemate. The demand is weakening, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **US soybeans**: The overnight CBOT November soybean price increased. The US soybean export sales were lower than expected [24]. - **Soybean and rapeseed meal**: The soybean meal is expected to be strong in the short term and may correct significantly in mid - to - late August. The cost - driven force is not strong, and the futures price increase is limited [24]. - **Soybean and rapeseed oil**: The inventory pressure of soybean oil is high, and the demand is weak. The palm oil is the dominant factor in the soybean and rapeseed oil market. The soybean - palm oil price difference may increase [25]. - **Palm oil**: The palm oil market is in a short - term bull market, but the upward resistance is increasing. The inventory is increasing, and the selling pressure may increase [25]. - **Pigs**: The pig supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, and the price increase is limited. The futures contract profit is high, and it is a suitable time for selling hedging [26]. - **Corn**: Corn is in the supply - demand off - season from late July to August. The price is expected to oscillate narrowly. The weather may affect the price in mid - to - late September [26][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished products continue to be strong. The cost side provides significant support for steel prices. With low inventory levels and supply - demand stimuli, the futures market is expected to strengthen. The market should focus on policy signals, terminal demand repair, and cost support [3]. - The short - term price fluctuations of various commodities are mainly driven by market sentiment and expectations. It is difficult to determine if the prices have reached a short - term peak. Speculators should be rational, and industrial players can consider hedging [9][13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3294 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.610%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2995 tons, and the main contract open interest decreased by 16348 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai changed differently. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3456 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.523%). The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 296 tons, and the main contract open interest increased by 12461 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai also had different changes [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost side supports steel prices. In the short term, supply - demand factors and low inventory levels are expected to drive the market up. The demand for rebar increased slightly this week, and inventory decreased, while the demand for hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, and inventory increased. The inventories of both are at a five - year low. The market should pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 811.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.12% (- 1.00), and the open interest decreased by 17104 lots to 56.28 million lots. The weighted open interest was 103.95 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 29.04 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.46% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Market Analysis**: Recent overseas iron ore shipments rebounded, with Brazil contributing the main increase. The near - end arrivals decreased. The daily average molten iron output was high but decreased slightly. Port and steel mill inventories increased slightly. The market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand and supply changes [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On July 24, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.17% at 5948 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5860 yuan/ton, with a premium of 102 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 1.34% at 5754 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, with a discount of 54 yuan/ton [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: The long - term fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are bearish, but short - term price fluctuations are dominated by market sentiment. It is recommended that speculators be rational, and industrial players can consider hedging [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Position Data**: On July 24, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 1.73% at 9690 yuan/ton. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China increased, with different basis relationships [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Industrial silicon still faces over - supply and insufficient demand. The short - term price may be affected by market sentiment, and there is a risk of a short - term peak [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China changed differently. The total inventory of national float glass decreased, and the short - term price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to avoid short positions. In the long term, the price trend depends on real estate policies and supply - demand balance [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but the medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction remains. It is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment cools down [16].