研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|铁矿周报 2025-04-27 市场情绪反复，矿价震荡运行 策略摘要 宏观上，本周美国对华关税表态反复，政策不确定性扰动市场交易情绪，铁矿石波动放 大。供应方面，本期铁矿石全球发运量小幅回升，近期铁矿发运窄幅震荡，内矿产量环 比下降，铁矿供给压力有所缓解。需求方面，本期五大材产量有所回升，延续去库趋势。 钢厂盈利率回升，铁水产量增长至年内高位，铁矿石需求相对旺盛。库存方面，本期铁 矿石港口库存有所上涨。整体来看，铁水增产空间有限，短期铁矿石基本面矛盾不突出， 关税对钢材出口影响预期仍在，且国内粗钢供给端存在一定变化，持续关注供给侧变化 对产业链的影响，关注关税变化和节前下游补库情况。 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 余彩云 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 刘国梁 liuguoliang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 ...

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年4月24日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 涨跌 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3180 | 3190 | -10 | 40 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3190 | 3190 | O | 50 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3270 | 3280 | -10 | 130 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3030 | 3059 | -29 | 150 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3106 | 3137 | -31 | 74 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3140 | 3166 | -26 | 40 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3240 | 3270 | -30 | / | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3220 | 3220 | O | -13 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

铁矿石早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/4/24 地区 品种 最新 日变化 周变化 折盘面 最新 日变化 周变化 进口利润 99.30 -0.80 -0.15 纽曼粉 764 6 6 817.2 96.20 1.35 0.95 -23.19 PB粉 772 5 7 818.5 99.45 1.25 1.20 -5.79 麦克粉 753 5 8 822.6 94.65 1.25 1.10 1.31 金布巴 729 5 9 820.5 90.75 1.30 1.05 1.63 主流 混合粉 684 14 24 809.5 85.20 1.20 1.00 3.28 超特粉 634 9 14 844.2 80.55 1.10 1.20 -1.67 卡粉 859 0 5 801.1 112.65 1.35 1.20 -27.35 巴混 783 3 5 795.2 101.45 1.35 1.40 -13.32 巴粗IOC6 745 5 5 817.2 主流 巴粗SSFT 760 5 5 巴西精粉 853 0 5 乌克兰精粉 828 5 8 907.9 61%印粉 709 5 9 卡拉拉精粉 828 5 8 843.2 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 4 月 24 日星期四 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

首席点评： 原油反弹，黄金回落 特朗普称或将"大幅降低"对华关税，中国外交部：打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。中国外交部发言人郭 嘉昆强调，如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停止威胁讹诈，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础 上同中方对话。一边说要同中方达成协议，一边不断搞极限施压，这不是同中方打交道的正确方式，也 是行不通的。美国 4 月 Markit 综合 PMI 超预期下降创 16 个月新低，信心挫、价格涨，制造业 PMI 不 降反升好于预期。数据表明， 4 月美国商业活动增长降至 16 个月低点，对未来一年商业前景的预期也 下降至自疫情以来最低之一；商品和服务的销售价格上涨幅度为一年多来最大，尤其是制造品价格大幅 上涨，与关税有关。就业指数低迷。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、橡胶 原油 ： SC 夜盘回落 2.25% 。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产量水平时， 哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。他还表示，该国未能减少三大产 油项目的石油产量，因为这些项目为海外巨头控制。路透社援引三位熟悉欧佩克及其减产同盟国会谈的 消息人士的话说，一些成员国将建议该集团在 6 月份 ...

2025年4月23日 研究所晨会观点精萃 行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021- ...

以下文章来源于一个人的八卦 ，作者木精灵zjs 一个人的八卦 . 闲来无事聊八卦，忙时有事稍后看。你若亦有八卦事，欢迎随时来分享。 文 | 木精灵zjs 来源 | 一个人的八卦 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 倒爷一词，出现于上世纪80年代，流行于上世 纪80年代中后期至90年代初期。 在从计划经济转向市场经济的过程中，尤其是在价格双轨制时代，一些人利用计划内商品和计划外商品的价格差，在市 场上倒卖有关商品进行盈利，被人们戏称为倒爷。 倒爷的本质就是倒卖价格差，利用信息差和渠道差，最终实现价格差。这其实也是所有贸易的本质。我觉得倒爷两字， 能很形象地形容贸易商，所以今天就拿来借用一下，来形容一下我们铁矿贸易商。 从我2009年加入铁矿行业至今，已经15个年头。这期间，伴随着铁矿市场的巨大波动，以及铁矿市场交易模式的慢慢 走向成熟，铁矿市场格局的改变，倒爷们也经历了从风光无限到彷徨迷茫到步入困境的发展历程。 01 风光时刻 在矿圈，根据实力的强弱，倒爷总体可以分为两类。 第一类有很强的经济实力，能自己从国外进口铁矿或者请代理商进口铁矿，或者能从进口方先把铁矿自己买下来囤在手 里，等价格合适时机再出货。这 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report - Report Date: April 22, 2025 - Report Focus: Analysis of the steel and iron ore markets, including price trends, industry dynamics, and market forecasts 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.74%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, the supply of rebar is stable, and demand has improved seasonally, leading to a slight improvement in the fundamentals. However, the sustainability of the demand improvement is weak, and overseas risks remain, putting continued pressure on steel prices, which are expected to oscillate at low levels. A breakthrough in the future depends on domestic policy support [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil showed a weak oscillation, with a daily decline of 0.81%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have increased, but demand concerns persist due to tariff risks, and the fundamentals have not improved. Hot - rolled coil prices will continue to be under pressure and run weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.21%, trading volume decreased, and open interest was stable. Currently, strong ore demand has supported the iron ore fundamentals, but the expectation of increased supply remains, and concerns about medium - term oversupply persist. Under the game of long and short factors, iron ore prices will continue to oscillate [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Global Shipbuilding Orders**: According to Clarkson's latest data (as of April 10, 2025), in March 2025, there were 72 new global ship orders, totaling 1,839,958 CGT. Compared with February 2025 (82 orders, 3,864,149 CGT), the number decreased by 10, and the compensated gross tonnage decreased by 52.38% month - on - month. Compared with March 2024 (252 orders, 5,190,856 CGT), the number decreased by 180, and the compensated gross tonnage decreased by 64.55% year - on - year. Chinese shipyards received 34 orders (615,640 CGT), Japanese shipyards received 6 orders (81,022 CGT), and South Korean shipyards received 19 orders (908,350 CGT), accounting for 33.46%, 4.40%, and 49.37% of the global new ship order volume respectively [6]. - **Real Estate Transaction Data**: From April 14th to April 20th, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.342 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.5%. During the same period, the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing in 10 key cities was 2.5516 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 19.1% [7]. - **Indian Steel Tariffs**: On April 21, 2025, India's Ministry of Finance and Taxation announced a 12% temporary safeguard measure tax on imported non - alloy and alloy flat steel products for 200 days. A CIF minimum price limit of 675 - 964 US dollars per ton was set, and no tax would be levied if the CIF import price was higher than the limit [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,160 yuan and 3,170 yuan respectively, with a decrease of 20 yuan; the national average price was 3,303 yuan, an increase of 2 yuan. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,250 yuan and 3,210 yuan respectively, with a decrease of 10 yuan and 0 yuan; the national average price was 3,323 yuan, a decrease of 7 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,940 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,080 yuan, unchanged [9]. - **Iron Ore and Related Products**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 766 yuan, a decrease of 3 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 748 yuan, unchanged. The sea freight from Australia was 7.22 US dollars, an increase of 0.07 US dollars; from Brazil was 18.91 US dollars, an increase of 0.03 US dollars. The SGX swap price (current month) was 100.10 US dollars, an increase of 0.80 US dollars, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 100.10 US dollars, an increase of 0.20 US dollars [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,075 | - 0.74 | 3,123 | 3,065 | 1,344,693 | 67,071 | 2,012,421 | 58,881 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | - | 3,171 | - 0.81 | 3,215 | 3,163 | 542,500 | 51,723 | 1,437,260 | 49,993 | | Iron Ore | - | 711.0 | 0.21 | 718.0 | 706.5 | 337,797 | - 100,011 | 610,938 | 746 | [11] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: The report provides charts on the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils, showing the inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [14][16][20][21]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts on the inventory of iron ore in 45 ports (seasonal and total), 247 steel mills, and domestic mines are presented, along with the inventory and its month - on - month changes [19][23][26][27]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts on the blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, start - up rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills are included [29][31][33][35]. 3.5后市研判 - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern is relatively good. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 31,500 tons, but production enthusiasm remains due to acceptable profit margins, and supply pressure persists. Demand has continued to rise, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 211,400 tons, but the daily high - frequency transactions are still weak, and the sustainability of the apparent demand increase needs to be monitored. Steel prices will continue to be under pressure and oscillate at low levels, and a breakthrough depends on domestic policies [38]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand have changed. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 11,000 tons, but the profit per ton has been shrinking, limiting future production growth. Demand has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 88,300 tons, mainly due to high production in downstream industries. However, contradictions in downstream industries have accumulated, and external demand concerns due to tariff risks remain. Prices will continue to be under pressure and run weakly [39]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. Steel mill production has stabilized, and ore demand remains strong due to high terminal consumption and pre - holiday inventory replenishment. However, weak steel prices have squeezed steel mill profits, and there is a risk of production cut feedback. Although domestic port arrivals have increased, overseas shipments are weak, and overall supply is stable. Under the game of long and short factors, iron ore prices will continue to oscillate [40].

政策预期偏强，钢材期现货市场延续震荡 东海黑色金属周度策略 东海期货研究所黑色策略组 2025-04-21 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：liuhf@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 武冰心 从业资格证号：F03118003 电话：021-80128600-8619 邮箱：wubx@qh168.com.cn 分析师： 黑色策略 | 品种 | 钢材 | 铁矿石 | | --- | --- | --- | | 观点 | 区间震荡 | 区间震荡 | | 逻辑 | 本周钢材需求继续好转，且未来1-2周仍有回升 | 本周铁水产量小幅回落，不过近期钢厂利润尚可，钢材 | | | 空间，但中期看已经接近顶部，5月份之后料回 | 需求也在旺季之中，铁水产量仍有回升空间。但中期看 | | | 落。钢厂利润短期尚可，生产积极性不减，供应 | 已经接近顶部区域。供应方面，本周主流矿发运小幅回 | | | 处于相对高位。短期市场在走利润压缩逻辑。目 | 落，且按照季节性因素来看，未来几周发运量 ...

报告日期： 2025 年 4 月21 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 油价走弱，金价续涨 研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干措施，要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展。 据新华社，会议指出，加大逆周期调节力度，着力稳就业稳外贸，着力促消费扩内需，着力优结构提质 量，做强国内大循环，推动经济高质量发展。中国商务部回应美方海事、物流和造船领域 301 调查。商 务部发言人称，中方敦促美方尊重事实和多边经贸规则，遵守市场经济和公平竞争原则，停止"甩锅推 责"，尽早纠正错误做法。中方将密切关注美方有关动向，并将坚决采取必要措施维护自身权益。 重点品种： 股指，原油，贵金属 原油 ： SC 夜盘上涨 0.33% 。欧佩克周三在网站上发布消息说，已收到伊拉克、哈萨克斯坦和其他国 家进一步减产的最新计划，以弥补以前超过配额的产量。据计算，最新计划要求七个国家从现在到 2026 年 6 月期间，每月额外减少日产量 36.9 万桶。根据最新补偿计划，从本月到 2026 年 6 月，每月减 产量将从每日 19.6 万桶到 52 万桶不等，高于此前的每日 18.9 万桶至 43.5 万桶。贝克休斯公布的数据 显示， ...