Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: The supply - demand situation lacks significant improvement. Domestic LPG prices are trending upward due to cost support from international prices and limited supply supplements. In the short - term, civil demand remains seasonally weak, and the overall chemical end - use demand is expected to have limited improvement. Attention should be paid to the change of import costs and PDH device dynamics [3]. - **Propylene**: The domestic propylene market price is trending upward, driven by supply - demand changes. In the short - term, price support remains, but there is a possibility of a decline from high levels due to the pressure on downstream profits and the expected return of major supply - releasing devices in mid - to early September [5]. 3. Section Summaries LPG Part - **Price & Spread** - Domestic LPG market prices have generally increased. For example, the price of Shandong civil LPG increased by 30 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of Shandong ether - post LPG increased by 80 yuan/ton week - on - week [8][15]. - The congestion in the Panama Canal has eased, and the freight from the US to the Far East has slightly decreased from its high level [16]. - **Supply** - The total domestic LPG commercial volume is 54.8 tons, a 3.0% increase week - on - week. The commercial volume of civil gas is 21.5 tons (+1.0%), and the commercial volume of ether - post C4 is 17.5 tons (+0.2%) [3][70]. - The LPG shipments from the US and the Middle East to China have decreased, while the Canadian shipments are relatively stable. The number of international ship arrivals in China has increased by 2.7 tons week - on - week, mainly in East China [3]. - **Demand & Inventory** - In terms of chemical demand, the PDH operating rate decreased by 2.6% to 73.0% this week, and the MTBE operating rate remained unchanged from last week [3][84]. - Civil gas inventories have slightly decreased, while ether - post C4 inventories have increased. The LPG terminal inventory in South China (excluding Fujian) has increased, while the inventories in other regions have decreased [95][105]. Propylene Part - **Price & Spread** - The operating rates of some propylene production and consumption devices have changed. For example, the operating rate of domestic PDH decreased by 2.6%, and the operating rates of some downstream devices such as Jingbo's PP and Shandong Hongxin's acrylic acid have changed [4][116]. - Propylene prices are trending upward. The prices of domestic propylene in Shandong, East China, and other regions have increased to varying degrees week - on - week [5][131]. - **Balance Sheet** - In the national propylene balance sheet, the supply and demand situation shows certain monthly changes. In August 2025, the total propylene production was 528 tons, and the total demand was 535 tons, with a balance of 13 tons [137][142].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The overall market remains loose. In the Shandong market, the resumption of production at Shandong Tianhong and Zibo Xintai, along with the downstream PO maintenance at Wanhua Penglai, has increased the supply of propylene, weakening the spot price. Other markets have shown little change [3]. - There are maintenance plans for Wanhua Penglai's 900,000 - ton PDH and Jinneng's 900,000 - ton PDH in the second half of the month, and the PP line at Jingbo is expected to resume production in late August, narrowing the supply - demand gap in the Shandong market [4]. - The cost of crude oil has been falling for several days, and the price of external propane is under pressure at a high export level [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Propylene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about propylene price drops, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short - allocate propylene futures (PL2601) at high prices with a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 6600 - 6700 to lock in profits. Also, selling call options (PL2601C6800) with a 50% ratio in the range of 120 - 160 can collect premiums to reduce costs and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders (short spot position), it is recommended to buy propylene futures (PL2601) at low prices with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 6250 - 6350 to lock in procurement costs. Selling put options (PL2601P6000) with a 25% ratio in the range of 50 - 60 can collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price if the propylene price drops [2]. Industry Data Upstream Prices - Brent crude closed at $65.42, down $0.47 from the previous day and $0.69 from the previous week; WTI crude closed at $62, down $0.58 from the previous day and $1.08 from the previous week [5]. - Other upstream prices such as MOPJ, NWE NAP, etc., also showed different degrees of change [5]. Mid - stream Prices - FOB South Korea remained at 745, unchanged from the previous day and up 2 from the previous week; FOB US was at 675.16, down 2.7558 from the previous day and the same from the previous week; CFR China remained at 775, unchanged from the previous day and down 3 from the previous week [5]. - Domestic mid - stream prices in regions like East China, Shandong, and Northeast also had corresponding changes [5]. Downstream Prices - Polypropylene powder was at 6870, unchanged from the previous day and down 60 from the previous week; polypropylene pellets were at 7000, down 25 from the previous day and the same from the previous week. Other downstream products also showed price fluctuations [5]. Profits - Main refinery profit was 832.62, down 106.23 from the previous record; MTO monomer profit was - 180.83, unchanged from the previous day and up 62.50 from the previous week. Different profit indicators in the mid - upstream and downstream showed various trends [5]. Price Spreads - PL01 - 02 was - 56, down 7 from the previous day and 3 from the previous week; PP01 - PL01 was 612, up 15 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week. Different price spreads also had corresponding changes [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macroeconomics - Domestically, although the economic growth rate is showing a marginal slowdown, there is no need for excessive anxiety. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and fiscal expenditure is accelerating. The trend of future economic data remains uncertain and requires continuous tracking of high - frequency data [1]. - Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain. Attention should be focused on changes in US economic data and the policy signals released by Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a stage of long - short game. Yesterday, the stock market as a whole pulled back, and the pressure line of the index was not successfully broken. If the trading volume narrows in the future, the decline of small - cap indexes may also widen. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment and trading volume adjustment near key points [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed a weak rebound on Tuesday. If the stock market continues to fluctuate, it will be beneficial for the bond market to stabilize. However, if the stock market rises after consolidation, it will suppress the bond market. It remains to be seen whether the bond market can bottom out [3]. - **Container Shipping**: The freight index (European Line) futures prices showed a trend of first decline and then rebound. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Medium - to long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak. The strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - **Copper**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider long - alloy and short - aluminum arbitrage when the price difference widens [11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are in a weak state, and short - term trading is mainly range - bound. Consider selling the outer market and buying the inner market for arbitrage [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is trading on weak demand rather than production restrictions. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory changes of finished steel products [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating. There is an increased risk of a medium - term downward break, and short - term geopolitical developments need to be tracked [25][26]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the current situation is mainly a game in the near - term contracts [26][28]. - **PTA - PX**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the opportunity to go long. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP**: Prices are in a weak range - bound state. The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE**: Prices are in a range - bound state in the short term, and the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices are in a range - bound state. For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices remain weak, and the short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread is strengthening, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt**: The price center has shifted downward. In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500. Consider widening the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber on dips [43][45]. - **Urea**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [47][48]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - **Domestic**: The cumulative growth rate of the national general public budget from January to July turned positive for the first time, and stamp duty increased by 20.7%. Fiscal expenditure is accelerating, and economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect [1]. - **Overseas**: The possibility of a September interest rate cut in the US remains uncertain. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends [2]. Financial Futures Stock Index - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the stock index pulled back with reduced trading volume, and small - cap indexes had relatively smaller decline rates. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 175.794 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: From September 1, new conditions for personal pension withdrawals will be added [3]. - **Core Logic**: The index pressure line was not broken, and the large - cap index declined more. If trading volume narrows, small - cap indexes may also decline more [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated at a low level and finally closed up across the board, showing a weak rebound [3]. - **Core Logic**: The central bank made large - scale injections, and the bond market got a breather due to the stock market's consolidation. Whether the bond market can bottom out remains to be seen [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the container shipping index (European Line) futures prices first declined slightly and then rebounded [4][6]. - **Important Information**: Hamas made concessions on the cease - fire plan, and some shipping companies adjusted their European Line quotes [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks decreased, but the reduction in the decline of MSK's European Line spot - cabin quotes was positive for prices. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market was in a weak state. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.84% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Market focus is on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak [7][9]. - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper index was in a range - bound state on Tuesday, with low trading volume and stable decline in open interest [10]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level can be raised [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,545 yuan per ton, down 0.19% [10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,205 yuan per ton, down 0.69% [13]. - **Core Logic**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term range - bound trading [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 120,330 yuan per ton, down 0.37%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,885 yuan per ton, down 1.07% [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin index strengthened in the afternoon on Tuesday, closing at 26.8 yuan per ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [16]. - **Core Logic**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - **Core Logic**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a weak downward trend [20]. - **Important Information**: Steel mills adjusted scrap purchase prices, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [20]. - **Core Logic**: Supply increases, demand decreases, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: Iron ore prices are in a weak state, with five consecutive days of decline [21]. - **Important Information**: There are vehicle restrictions and an increase in blast furnace maintenance in Hebei [21]. - **Core Logic**: The market is trading on weak demand, and iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound and declining state [21]. - **Important Information**: There are rainfall and high - temperature weather, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [22]. - **Core Logic**: The market may fluctuate widely with sentiment, and attention should be paid to finished steel inventory changes [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: Supply is increasing, and prices may decline [23]. - **Core Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Overnight, the crude oil futures prices declined slightly [25]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in the geopolitical situation and changes in oil - buying sources in India [25]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating [25][26]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices declined slightly [26]. - **Important Information**: Some refineries had maintenance and restart operations [27]. - **Core Logic**: Fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is a near - term contract game [26][28]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices are in a range - bound state [29]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol 09 contract declined [32]. - **Core Logic**: Wait for the opportunity to go long after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP prices are in a weak range - bound state [34]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE prices are in a range - bound state [36]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound state [37][38]. - **Core Logic**: For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Fuel oil prices remain weak [39]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The crack spread is strengthening [40]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt prices have declined [42]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber prices declined [43]. - **Core Logic**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500 [43][45]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: Urea prices rose [46]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash 2601 contract declined [47]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass 2601 contract declined [49]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Review**: The caustic soda 2601 contract declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp** - **Market Review**: The main contract of pulp declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs** - **Market Review**: The main contract of logs declined [51]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51].

Report Overview - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: August 17, 2025 - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views LPG Section - Short - term valuation is reasonable, and the market will move in a range. Domestic civil gas supply and demand remain loose, with prices showing weak and narrow fluctuations. Ether - post C4 prices are in an upward - trending pattern. In the next week, civil demand will remain seasonally weak, and the short - term boost to the overall chemical end's operating rate is limited [3]. Propylene Section - Supply and demand are tightening, and prices have certain support. Although the supply will increase after the restart of some devices, there is still a large supply - demand gap in Shandong in August and September, and price support is expected to remain [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Part - Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices: Except for Shandong domestic gas, the price centers have all been adjusted upwards. For example, the prices of East China and South China civil gas and imported gas have increased to varying degrees [7][10]. - Regional quotes, discounts, and freight: The Panama Canal has slow passage, resulting in high freight rates; FEI discounts have narrowed; the arbitrage window from the US Gulf to the Far East has improved compared to last week [19]. - Propane prices: Some propane price indices have changed, such as the AFEI index increasing by 2.39% to 524.00 USD/t [32]. LPG Part - Supply - US propane shipments: Shipments to Japan and South Korea have significantly decreased on a week - on - week basis. Shipments to China this week are 50,000 tons, and Kpler statistics show that next week's shipments will increase significantly [3][45]. - Canadian propane shipments: There is no significant change in shipments [46]. - Middle East LPG shipments: Overall shipments have decreased compared to last week, and shipments to India have declined from a high level, while shipments to China have decreased [47][53]. - Imports of China, India, Japan, and South Korea: India's imports have increased, while China's imports have declined [60]. - LPG commodity volume: The total commodity volume is 521,000 tons (-1.6%), of which the civil gas commodity volume is 216,000 tons (-0.6%) [3][61]. - Propane commodity volume: China's propane supply this week is 62,690 tons, a 10.35% week - on - week increase. Domestic refinery commodity volume has decreased by 2.66%, and the international ship arrival volume is 583,000 tons [75]. LPG Part - Demand & Inventory - Chemical demand: PDH operating rate has increased, while MTBE operating rate has decreased for 3 consecutive weeks after 8 consecutive weeks of increase [78]. - LPG domestic refinery inventory: The week - on - week change is small [82]. - LPG terminal imported cargo inventory: Shandong and South China (excluding Fujian) have accumulated inventory, while other regions have reduced inventory [96]. Propylene Part - Price & Spread - Propylene industry chain operating rate: The overall operating rate of the industry has changed slightly. For example, the operating rate of PDH has increased by 2.49 percentage points to 76.33% [107]. - Propylene industry chain prices: Upstream prices such as Brent and WTI have slightly decreased; propylene prices in different regions have different trends, with Shandong prices first rising and then falling, and East China prices rising slightly [110]. - Propylene industry chain profits: Some profit indicators have changed, such as MTO profit increasing by 75 yuan/ton to - 304 yuan/ton [4]. Propylene Part - Balance Sheet - Propylene national balance sheet - Supply: In August 2025, the total domestic propylene supply is expected to be 524,000 tons, with a 4.01% increase in the weighted operating rate [129]. - Propylene national balance sheet - Demand: In August 2025, the total domestic propylene demand is 524,000 tons, with a - 0.22% change in the weighted operating rate [130].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price is expected to decline, with the fourth - quarter Brent crude oil price central falling to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter [2] - For precious metals, wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - Copper prices are difficult to break through effectively, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - Aluminum prices will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The IEA's August report increased supply growth forecasts and slightly decreased demand growth forecasts. The fourth - quarter Brent central may fall to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter. There is still upward risk due to potential supply disruptions, but the overall driving force is downward [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected release of the third - batch quota and weakening costs [18] - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten marginally. With low inventory, the price has some support, and the recent BU cracking is considered strong [19] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, but there is support from increased East Asian chemical procurement. The price has stabilized slightly. The domestic market is in a low - level oscillation [20] Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: After the release of the US CPI data, the market fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Chile's refined copper output may increase but the growth rate may fall short of expectations again. It is difficult for copper prices to break through 79,500 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, but the peak may occur in August. The price will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic market has weak demand and increasing supply, and the social inventory may rise further. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan per ton [8] - **Lead**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan per ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals of nickel are poor, and it is advisable to actively short during the later stage of the rebound [10] - **Tin**: Selectively go short for the short - term at low prices [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillates, and attention should be paid to risk management [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The self - clearing of production capacity is difficult, and the price is affected by related varieties. Pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [13] - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short cautiously at the lower end of the range [14] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Palm Oil**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the short - term price volatility should be enlarged, and attention should be paid to the changes in positions [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil market is expected to remain relatively strong, and a bullish view is maintained [34] - **Soybean No. 1**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties [35] - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in a situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and the progress of capacity elimination [37] - **Cotton**: The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was bullish. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [39] - **Apples**: The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is advisable to wait and see for now [40] Others - **Grain & Oil Chemicals** - **Urea**: The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is likely to oscillate within a range [21] - **Methanol**: The domestic market is strong in the inland and weak in the ports. With the approaching peak - season demand, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream stocking [22] - **Pure Benzene**: There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, and it is advisable to conduct month - spread trading [23] - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern, with limited upward and downward movement [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported, polyethylene demand is expected to increase, and polypropylene is in a weak - adjustment state [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [26] - **PX & PTA**: Affected by oil prices, the prices are falling. PX is expected to have a good valuation in the third quarter [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pressure is alleviating, and short - term performance is weak due to oil prices [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip is under long - term over - capacity pressure [29] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The market is in an active state, with a positive macro - driving force. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [43] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures are oscillating. The probability of a steeper yield curve is increasing [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

Report Information - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 3, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **LPG**: Import costs are decreasing, and prices are weakly oscillating. Domestic civil gas supply and demand are both weak, and the overall price is fluctuating weakly. Ether C4 prices are oscillating, and the overall chemical industry's start - up is expected to have limited short - term boost. [3] - **Propylene**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and prices are under pressure and weak. Although the supply - demand gap may narrow further, it is difficult to drive price increases. The supply - demand pressure may ease from late August to September, and prices may turn around. [4] Summary by Section LPG Part Price & Spread - LPG domestic spot prices in various regions have decreased. For example, from July 25 to August 1, Shandong civil gas decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and South China imported gas decreased by 120 yuan/ton. [8][15] - CP prices were released lower, and FEI discounts narrowed and then decreased again. [16] Supply - US propane shipments to Japan and South Korea increased significantly, while shipments to China decreased significantly. [26] - Middle East LPG shipments decreased significantly, and shipments to China, India, and Southeast Asia all decreased. [34][40] - China's LPG total commodity volume was 52.7 million tons (+0.3%), with civil gas at 21.0 million tons (-0.0%). Propane imports increased by 22.5 million tons. [50][59] Demand & Inventory - Chemical demand: PDH decreased slightly, and MTBE's operating rate decreased for the first time after 8 consecutive weeks of increase. [65] - LPG refinery inventories: Some regions decreased, such as East China's civil gas refinery inventory decreased from 18.43 million tons to 18.08 million tons. [68] - LPG terminal import inventories: East China and Fujian reduced inventories, while other regions' terminals increased inventories. [78] Propylene Part Price & Spread - Upstream prices: Brent rose by 1.13 dollars/bbl, and WTI rose by 2.19 dollars/bbl week - on - week. [89] - Propylene prices: Shandong, East China, and South China decreased by 35, 125, and 100 yuan/ton respectively week - on - week. [89] - Downstream prices/profits: Some products' prices and profits changed, such as PP powder profit in East China increased by 105 yuan/ton. [91] Balance Sheet - **National Balance Sheet - Supply**: In August 2025, the total domestic propylene production was 529 million tons, with a weighted operating rate of 79.5%. [105] - **National Balance Sheet - Demand**: In August 2025, the total domestic propylene demand was 526 million tons, with a weighted operating rate of 79.0%. [108] - **Shandong Balance Sheet - Supply**: In August 2025, Shandong's total propylene production was 90 million tons, with a weighted operating rate of 64.0%. [112]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the weekly market conditions of polyolefins (including plastics, PP, and propylene), with a focus on price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Overall, the upward driving force of the fundamentals is insufficient, and it suggests partial reduction of long positions. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Review and Outlook - **2025 - Week 30 Macro Review**: The commodity index and 3P showed certain fluctuations. The whole - week increase was PVC > energy - chemicals > polyolefins > commodities. The market continued to trade on anti - involution policies. PE, PP, and PVC had coal - based proportions of 21%, 23%, and 70% respectively, and old - capacity proportions of 14%, 8%, and 11% respectively [12]. - **2025 - Week 31 Macro Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, anti - involution policies, and US tariff changes. Plastic Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The L2509 contract fluctuated between [7224, 7483] this week, with the price rising driven by multiple news on Friday. The closing price was 7456 yuan/ton, and the position decreased [15][19]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: It is expected that next week's production will increase by 30,000 tons. The import volume in June decreased by 10% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level in the same period in the past 5 years [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream inventory replenishment willingness is insufficient, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. The agricultural film start - up rate has improved marginally [4]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially reduce long positions. Focus on the interval [7200 - 7500] for L2509. - **Arbitrage**: Continue to hold the long LP09 arbitrage. - **Hedging**: Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the low basis [5]. PP Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The PP2509 contract fluctuated between [7023, 7239] this week, with the price rising driven by news on Friday. The closing price was 7221 yuan/ton, and the position decreased [56][60]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: It is expected that next week's production will rise to 790,000 tons, and the basis and monthly spread have continued to weaken, with the warehouse receipts reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years [7]. - **Demand**: The downstream start - up rate remains at around 50%, and the plastic - weaving start - up rate has continued to decline [78][80]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially take profit on long positions. Focus on the interval [7050 - 7300] for PP2509. - **Arbitrage**: Enter the long PP9 - 1 spread or MTO position opportunistically. - **Hedging**: Choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the low basis [8]. Propylene Weekly Fundamental Analysis - **Market Performance**: In the first week of propylene's listing, it fluctuated strongly, with the PL01 contract fluctuating between [6501, 6708]. As of Friday, the Shandong propylene market price was 6400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan/ton week - on - week [89][92]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: The PDH start - up rate has increased marginally, and the factory inventory is at a high level year - on - year. The supply pressure will continue to increase in the future [93][95]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream start - up rate has decreased marginally. Most downstream industries maintain a rigid - demand procurement strategy [10]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially take profit on long positions. Focus on the interval [6500 - 6700] for PL2601. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the short PL1 - 2 spread. - **Hedging**: Choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the premium of the futures price [11].

Report Information - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: July 27, 2025 - Author: Chen Xinchao from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **LPG**: This week, the domestic civil LPG market faced weak supply and demand. The supply slightly contracted, but the seasonal demand was weak, and international LPG prices declined, resulting in a narrow and weak price fluctuation. The price of etherified C4 first fell and then rose. Next week, civil demand is expected to remain seasonally weak, while the overall chemical production is likely to receive some short - term boost [3]. - **Propylene**: This week, the domestic propylene market supply increased slightly, while the overall downstream demand decreased slightly. The market price first rose and then fell. The supply - demand gap widened, and the price was under pressure [4]. Summary by Sections LPG Section Price & Spread - **Futures and Paper Goods Prices**: The prices of LPG futures and paper goods showed certain fluctuations. The international propane price weakened and then rebounded slightly at the end of the week, with FEI propane in a deep discount state [7][17]. - **Domestic Spot and Basis**: The prices of domestic civil LPG and other LPG products in different regions had varying degrees of changes. The basis also showed corresponding fluctuations [8]. - **International Propane**: The international propane price weakened and then rebounded slightly. The FEI propane was in a deep discount state, and the freight rates and arbitrage spaces also changed [17][18]. Supply - **US Propane Shipment**: The shipment of US propane to Japan, South Korea, and Europe increased, while the shipment to China decreased significantly [27]. - **Middle - East LPG Shipment**: Except for Kuwait, the LPG shipments from other Middle - East regions decreased this period. The shipment to China decreased, while the shipments to India and Southeast Asia increased [36][43]. - **Imports and Domestic Production**: The total LPG commodity volume was 52.5 tons, remaining unchanged from last week. The civil LPG commodity volume was 21.0 tons (-0.2%), and the etherified C4 commodity volume was 17.6 tons (+0.5%). The international propane arrival decreased by 16.7 tons [3][54]. Demand & Inventory - **Chemical Demand**: Chemical demand continued to recover slightly. The PDH operating rate increased slightly, and the MTBE operating rate continued to rise to 69.0%, a 1.4% increase from the previous week [3]. - **Inventory**: The domestic refinery inventory of LPG showed different trends in different regions. The civil LPG refinery inventory increased slightly, and the LPG terminal inventory in East China increased, while the inventory in other regions decreased [77][81][91]. Propylene Section Price & Spread - **Industrial Chain Prices**: The prices of upstream and downstream products in the propylene industrial chain changed to varying degrees. The prices of some raw materials decreased, while the prices of some products increased or decreased slightly [102][103]. - **International and Domestic Propylene Prices**: International propylene prices decreased slightly, and domestic propylene prices in different regions also showed different trends. The prices in Shandong and East China increased, while the price in North China decreased [102][113][117]. Balance Sheet - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various production processes in the propylene industry increased slightly. The operating rates of downstream products such as PP powder and acrylic acid increased slightly, while the operating rates of PP pellets and PO changed little, and many butanol and phenol - acetone plants were under maintenance [4][120]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply of the domestic propylene market increased slightly this week, while the overall downstream demand decreased slightly. The supply - demand gap widened [4].

两缔期货和期权将于7月22日在郑州商品交易所上市，我国基础化工品期货再添新成员。 一、丙烯行业背景: 景气下行、结构行过剩 安如泰山 信守承诺 丙烯期货上市策略前瞻 化工新品种 过去五年我国丙烯产能快速扩张，2020年到2024年，五年间我国丙烯产能增加2912万吨，年复合增速 14.3%。2020-2024年中国丙烯消费年均复合增长率为8.5%，远低于丙烯产能年均增达，供需增速差的存在，导致 两烯市场供需矛盾呈现明显的加剧之势，丙烯行业景气下行，行业呈结构性过剩的格局。 二、上半年运行情况:供需失衡、价格下跌 图 1: 中国丙烷、混烷脱氢装置开工率及毛利对比 资料来源：卓创资讯，国投期货 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 上半年丙烯面临供应、需求、成本三方面压力,导致价格持续下行。原料端原油和丙烷价格下跌,成本支 撑下滑。供应端，多套新装置投产，带动产量快速增长。据统计，上半年国内丙烯新增产能548.5万吨，国内丙 烯行业总产能达到7574.8万吨。1-6月份国内丙烯总产量3057.9万吨，同比增长13.16%。PDH装置上半年阶段性的 开工率持续下滑，5月中旬以后开工有所提升，但同比仍然明显较低,尽管如此， ...