化工日报 | 2025-07-15 需求端库存压力增大，宏观氛围偏暖 市场要闻与数据 1、市场预期三房巷PTA新装置提前至7月17日附近投产。 2、国内社融和出口数据好于预期，宏观气氛偏暖。 市场分析 成本端，原油维持强现实、弱预期，短期胡赛武装对红海商船扰动影响原油供应预期，中期基本面预期依然不佳。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN253美元/吨(环比变动-8.25美元/吨）。近期在PTA基差以及加工差大幅压缩后，PTA工 厂连续出售PX压价，PXN压缩。PX当前缺乏更多的供应端利好,供需面不及前期强势,但在需求端没有明显利空的 情况下，低库存下PXN继续下降空间也有限。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 8 元/吨(环比变动+8元/吨），PTA现货加工费124元/吨（环比变动-56元/吨），主力 合约盘面加工费362元/吨（环比变动+2元/吨），伴随主流供应商出货和下游负荷下降，同时7月PTA装置检修不多， 另外三房巷装置计划投产，PTA基差快速走低，PTA自身基本面偏弱，关注低加工费下的检修增加可能。 需求方面，聚酯开工率88.8%（环比-1.4%），内外销进入淡季，终端订单和开工加速下滑，坯布库存再度累积至 ...

化工日报 | 2025-07-10 弱需求叠加新装置预期，PTA基差快速走弱 市场要闻与数据 需求方面，聚酯开工率90.2%（环比-1.2%），内外销进入淡季，终端订单和开工呈现下滑趋势，但聚酯表现相对良 性，负荷表现坚挺, 短期长丝负荷预计还能维持,继续关注聚酯库存变化；短纤库存不高，虽然也有减产消息，但 实际执行力度存疑；瓶片方面，华润6.22检修20%已执行，万凯逸盛计划7月初开始检修，涉及产能170万吨，7月 聚酯负荷预计下降至89%~90%，关注实际兑现情况。 PF方面，现货生产利润262元/吨（环比+36元/吨）。短纤现货偏紧、库存不高，PF自身基本面尚可，但下游对原料 高价位接受能力有限，大多刚需采购为主，，但需求走弱预期，关注成本端支撑。 PR方面，瓶片现货加工费405元/吨(环比变动+35元/吨)，随着价格下跌，市场贸易商和下游客户补仓动作有所增多。 基本面方面，逸盛和万凯检修逐步兑现中，预计瓶片负荷将进一步下滑。短期而言，在减产逐步兑现下瓶片加工 费预计会有所修复，但上方空间有限. 策略 弱需求叠加新装置预期，PTA基差快速走弱，市场预期三房巷PTA新装置提前至7月投产。 市场分析 成本端 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/08 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 7/01 67.1 571 861 4980 6990 66.98 290.0 287 132 85.7 78.2 34428 200 0.30 2025/0 7/02 69.1 572 854 4925 6955 65.67 282.0 271 133 85.7 78.2 34428 150 0.45 2025/0 7/03 68.8 577 850 4890 6890 73.08 273.0 253 95 85.7 78.2 33218 145 0.45 2025/0 7/04 68.3 579 840 4835 6885 78.11 261.0 256 139 82.8 78.2 33074 105 0.35 2025/0 7/07 69.6 577 842 4810 6770 66.98 265.0 213 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,288 yuan/ton (a change of - 11 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of - 0.26%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,361 yuan/ton (a change of + 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of + 0.02%), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 76 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton). The US government lifted restrictions on exporting ethane to China, causing EG to open lower and then fluctuate. The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 75 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 4 US dollars/ton), and that of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 34 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton). The inventory in the main ports of East China was 545,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 77,000 tons) according to CCF and 542,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 36,000 tons) according to Longzhong. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, which may lead to a rise in inventory [1]. - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering, showing a benign de - stocking in the short - term, but the market's transferable spot will increase after the cancellation of warehouse receipts. Overseas supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants restart. In early July, foreign ships will arrive intensively. On the demand side, the current demand is strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans in early July, with a weak demand forecast [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,288 yuan/ton (a change of - 11 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of - 0.26%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,361 yuan/ton (a change of + 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of + 0.02%), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 76 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 75 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 4 US dollars/ton), and that of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 34 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton) [1] International Spread - No specific data provided in the given text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The demand side is currently strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans in early July, with a weak demand forecast [2] Inventory Data - The inventory in the main ports of East China was 545,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 77,000 tons) according to CCF and 542,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 36,000 tons) according to Longzhong. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, which may lead to a rise in inventory [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term weak performance under increasing supply and decreasing demand, but limited downside space [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,273 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton, +0.14% compared to the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,328 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton, -0.16% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 69 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - Due to power issues, four sets of Saudi Arabian devices had a large - scale short - stop, with a total capacity of 2.15 million tons, and are expected to resume operation within 1 - 2 weeks. Affected by this news, EG prices rose in the late trading session [1] - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 79 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 9 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 545,000 tons (- 77,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory was 506,000 tons (- 31,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased significantly. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, and the port inventory may rise again [1] - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure still shows a benign inventory reduction. However, after the warehouse receipts are gradually cancelled and flow out, the transferable spot in the market will be supplemented to a certain extent. Overseas supply is expected to be loose as overseas devices are gradually restarting, and foreign ships will arrive in a concentrated manner at the beginning of July. On the demand side, the current situation is strong, but several major bottle chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans at the beginning of July, and the demand is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,273 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton, +0.14% compared to the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,328 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton, -0.16% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 69 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 79 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 9 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - Not elaborated in the text Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - Not elaborated in the text Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 545,000 tons (- 77,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory was 506,000 tons (- 31,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased significantly. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, and the port inventory may rise again [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The cost side is affected by the intensification of the Israel - Iran conflict in the Middle East, leading to a significant increase in oil prices. If the conflict escalates and affects energy facilities or the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices may face further upward risks; if the situation is controlled and parties seek peace talks, the geopolitical premium may decline again [1]. - In the gasoline and aromatics sectors, the gasoline crack spread in the US has retraced again. With the substitution of new energy, the upside potential for gasoline crack spreads is limited, and the blending demand this year is not worth much expectation. The intermittent blending demand at home and abroad can be basically met by naphtha, which restricts the enthusiasm of aromatics entering the gasoline pool [1]. - For PX, the short - term unilateral trend of PX/PTA/PF/PR is bullish under the Israel - Iran conflict, but if the conflict eases, prices may fall. The supply - demand situation of PX remains tight due to unplanned overseas plant shutdowns, while the tightness of PTA's spot market liquidity has eased [5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Price and Spread - The report analyzes the trends of TA, PX, PF, and PR's main contracts, their basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as various processing fees and profit margins such as PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, short - fiber profits, and bottle - chip processing fees [8][9]. 2. PX and PTA Supply - This week, China's PX operating rate was 85.6% (down 0.2% week - on - week), and Asia's was 74.3% (down 1.3% week - on - week). Domestic PX load was basically stable, while overseas facilities had more changes. The Israel - Iran conflict led to the shutdown of PX plants in Iran and Israel, and the restart of Saudi Arabia's Rabigh aromatics plant was postponed. Several domestic PX plants are planned for maintenance at the end of the month, and the spot market is still short of goods [2]. - China's PTA operating rate was 79.1% (down 3.5% week - on - week), and the PTA spot processing fee was 412 yuan/ton (compared to 42 yuan last week). Some PTA plants reduced their loads or shut down as planned, and the tightness of the spot market's liquidity has eased [2]. 3. Inventory - The report presents the weekly social inventory of PTA, the monthly social inventory of PX, the total PTA warehouse receipts and forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [8][9]. 4. Demand - This week, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 65.0% (down 2.0% week - on - week), and the polyester operating rate was 92.0% (up 1.1% week - on - week). Domestic and foreign sales have entered the off - season, with terminal orders and operations showing a downward trend, but polyester has performed relatively well. After the raw material prices rose, there was a concentrated restocking, and the inventory of filament decreased. However, at high prices, the inventory pressure may increase [3]. 5. PF Supply, Demand, and Inventory - This week, the direct - spinning polyester staple fiber operating rate was 95.1% (up 3.0% week - on - week), the equity inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories were 12.1 days (up 0.6 days week - on - week), and the inventory of 1.4D polyester staple fiber increased. Affected by the Israel - Iran situation, the price of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber fluctuated upwards, but the increase was less than that of raw materials, and the processing margin was slightly compressed [3]. 6. PR Supply, Demand, and Inventory - This week, the bottle - chip factory operating rate (based on maximum capacity) was 80.7% (up 0.9%), the bottle - chip factory inventory was 17.4 days (up 1.9 days week - on - week), and the bottle - chip spot processing fee was 186 yuan/ton (down 129 yuan from last week). The overall transaction in the polyester bottle - chip market was average this week. Although some overseas customers made supplementary purchases, the processing fee is still under pressure in the short term. Major manufacturers have announced maintenance plans, which will have a greater impact on the bottle - chip load [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol (EG) has increased due to more EG plant shutdowns in Iran and the upward movement of crude oil prices caused by geopolitical conflicts. The EG futures and spot prices have both risen, with the main contract closing at 4400 yuan/ton (+0.59% from the previous trading day) and the East China spot price at 4470 yuan/ton (+0.74% from the previous trading day). The cost - push effect on EG is significant, and the EG market has shown an upward trend. The production profit of ethylene - based EG is - 40 dollars/ton (down 3 dollars/ton from the previous period), while that of coal - based syngas EG is 117 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton from the previous period). [1] - In terms of inventory, different data sources show a decline in EG inventory at the East China main ports. The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 10.8 million tons, and the planned arrivals this week are 10.0 million tons. The inventory is expected to remain stable, but attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm under the influence of Iranian plant shutdowns. [2] - Regarding the overall supply - demand fundamentals, the domestic supply will gradually recover in June, with a low overall load and a positive de - stocking situation. Overseas supply is affected by the Iranian plant shutdowns due to geopolitical conflicts. On the demand side, there are new maintenance plans for bottle - chip factories, resulting in weak demand expectations. [2] - The trading strategy suggests a short - term long position, with a focus on the further evolution of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. There are no specific strategies for inter - period or inter - variety trading. [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The main EG contract closed at 4400 yuan/ton (+26 yuan/ton, +0.59% from the previous trading day), and the East China spot price was 4470 yuan/ton (+33 yuan/ton, +0.74% from the previous trading day). The East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 85 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton from the previous period). [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG is - 40 dollars/ton (down 3 dollars/ton from the previous period), and that of coal - based syngas EG is 117 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton from the previous period). [1] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis on international price differences are provided in the text other than the mention of the chart "Ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR". [19] Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - There are new maintenance plans for bottle - chip factories, indicating weak demand expectations. Attention should be paid to the polyester production reduction actions after the significant rebound of raw materials and the restart progress of large EG plants. [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the EG inventory at the East China main ports was 61.6 million tons (down 1.8 million tons from the previous period), and according to Longzhong data, it was 56.4 million tons (down 3.4 million tons from the previous period). The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 10.8 million tons, and the planned arrivals this week are 10.0 million tons. The inventory is expected to remain stable. [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2) Core Views - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,374 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton, +0.92% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,437 yuan/ton (+11 yuan/ton, +0.25%). Due to the Israel-Iran conflict, two EG plants in Iran with a total capacity of 950,000 tons unexpectedly shut down, leading to an increase in EG prices on Monday. The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$38/ton (up $9/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was 106 yuan/ton (up 79 yuan/ton). The inventory data from different sources showed a decline, and the port inventory was expected to be stable. The supply in June in China was gradually recovering, and the overall load was not high. Overseas supply was affected by the situation in Iran. The demand decreased due to polyester production cuts [1][2]. - **Strategy**: The short - term strategy for a single position is bullish, and attention should be paid to the further evolution of the Middle East geopolitical conflict. There are no strategies for inter - period or cross - variety trading [3]. 3) Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,374 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton, +0.92% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,437 yuan/ton (+11 yuan/ton, +0.25%). The East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 86 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$38/ton (up $9/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was 106 yuan/ton (up 79 yuan/ton). The report also mentioned relevant profit data for other production methods and the overall and syngas - based operating rates of EG [1][10]. International Spread - The report presented the international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR) [20]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - It covered the sales and production of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester chips [21][23]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data on Mondays, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 616,000 tons (down 18,000 tons), and according to Longzhong data on Thursdays, it was 564,000 tons (down 34,000 tons). The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 108,000 tons, and the planned arrivals this week were 100,000 tons. The port inventory was expected to be stable [2].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 30 日 热点品种 碳酸锂： 今日碳酸锂开盘后高位震荡，收盘价 59883.02 元/吨，涨幅 1.35%。SMM 电池级 碳酸锂指数价格 60901 元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 332 元/吨；电池级碳酸锂 5.94-6.2 万元/吨，均价 6.07 万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 200 元/吨；工业 级碳酸锂 5.86-5.96 万元/吨，均价 5.91 万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 200 元 /吨，碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续下移。供给端短期碳酸锂供需维持过剩格局 延续，五月份天气转暖盐湖端开工率将季节性提高，预计国内盐湖产量将逐步抬 升，中期供应减弱，据 Mysteel，近期江西某锂盐企业预计 6 月停产检修 1 个厂， 检修时长 4 个月，预计每月影响碳酸锂月产量约 1500 吨，供给预计下降，缓解 供应压力。需求端中美关税政策变化，在关税豁免 90 天内，利好储能电池出口 预期，缓冲碳酸锂需求疲软的情况，但难以改变产业现状。库存端即 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Short - term geopolitical disturbances in the oil market are frequent, with significant uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine and US - Iran situations. In the short term, the oil price is expected to fluctuate, with Brent ranging from $60 to $70 per barrel. In the long term, if the price remains low in the second quarter and the hurricane season in the US in the third quarter is stronger than average, there is a driving force for the oil price to rebound [2]. - The asphalt market is relatively strong among oil products. With limited supply and low inventory, the peak - season expectation is relatively optimistic, and the BU main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3400 - 3600 [5]. - The domestic liquefied gas market is under pressure during the summer off - season, with a weak fundamental situation due to increased supply and weak demand [7]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the near - month crack spread and monthly spread are at a high level, and the spot premium has started to rebound. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply continues to increase while the downstream demand is still weak [9]. - The natural gas price is expected to rebound due to increased demand intensity. In Europe, the gas price is supported by maintenance work, and the storage level is lower than last year [12][13]. - The PX market has an expected increase in supply, and the downstream PTA supply is also expected to rise, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the PX market is expected to be in a high - level shock [15]. - The PTA market has an expected increase in supply, a weakening export expectation, and a planned reduction in polyester production. The supply - demand relationship is weakening, and the processing fee may be compressed, with a high - level shock expected [18]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to maintain a tight - balance pattern in June, with a high - level shock in price [20]. - The short - fiber market has a limited supply loss, and the downstream has a pre - holiday restocking expectation, with a strong support for the processing fee, and a high - level shock is expected [21]. - The bottle - chip market has a gradually abundant supply and weak downstream receiving willingness, and the processing fee may be suppressed, with a shock consolidation expected [22]. - The styrene market has an expected increase in supply and a low - level increase in port inventory, with a weakening supply - demand relationship and a shock - weakening trend [24]. - The plastic and PP markets are weak in the short and medium term due to new production capacity and weak downstream demand [27]. - The PVC market is in a long - term supply - demand surplus pattern, and the short - term price is expected to be weak. The caustic soda market is short - term stable, but the medium - term direction is bearish [30][31]. - The soda ash market has an expected increase in supply, weak demand in the medium term, and a bearish trend with a slow decline [33][34]. - The glass market is in the off - season, with weak downstream demand, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to cost reduction and factory cold - repair in the medium term [36][37]. - The urea market has a large domestic supply and weak demand, and the short - term futures and spot are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the factory's order - receiving situation [38][39]. - The methanol market has a large supply and stable downstream demand, with a port inventory increase. It is recommended to short on rebounds [42][43]. - The corrugated paper and box - board paper markets have an increase in downstream replenishment enthusiasm, but the terminal demand is weak, and there is over - capacity pressure on small and medium - sized paper enterprises [44]. - The offset paper market has a stable supply and weak demand, and the price increase is difficult to transmit [46]. - The log market is under pressure in the long - term due to weak real - estate demand and increased port inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see [48]. - The pulp market has a complex influencing factor situation, and it is recommended to wait and see for the SP main contract [52]. - The natural rubber market has a decline in production and consumption in April, and the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to hold short positions for the RU main contract and try long positions for the NR main contract [54][55]. - The butadiene rubber market has an increase in inventory and a bearish factor for the BR main contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [58]. Grouped by Industry Oil - **Market Review** - NYMEX crude futures were closed for the US Memorial Day holiday, Brent2507 contract was at $64.74, down $0.04 per barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%. China INE crude futures main contract 2507 rose 1.7 to 456.4 yuan/barrel, and fell 0.5 to 455.9 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related Information** - As of the week ending May 20, the net long positions of traders in US light crude and Brent crude futures and options decreased by 631 lots, equivalent to a reduction of 631,000 barrels of crude oil [1]. - Eight OPEC+ countries that promised additional voluntary oil production cuts will hold a meeting on May 31 to decide on July's production [2]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term shock, medium - term weak [3]. - Arbitrage: Gasoline cracking weakens, diesel cracking weakens [4]. - Options: Wait and see [4]. Asphalt - **Market Review** - BU2507 closed at 3507 points at night (- 0.23%), BU2509 closed at 3461 points at night (- 0.20%) [4]. - On May 26, the spot price of asphalt in Shandong was 3450 - 3800 yuan/ton, in East China was 3520 - 3590 yuan/ton, and in South China was 3380 - 3500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Related Information** - At the end of the month, with the reduction of some expired contracts, the quotation of individual brands increased slightly. The demand in the north was stable, and the supply increased slightly. The demand in the south was affected by rainfall [4]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [5]. - Arbitrage: The asphalt - crude oil spread fluctuates at a high level [5]. - Options: Wait and see [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review** - PG2507 closed at 4075 (+ 0.27%) at night, PG2508 closed at 4004 (+ 0.18%) at night [6]. - The spot price of domestic liquefied gas in South China was 4770 - 4880 yuan/ton, and the imported gas was 4820 - 5000 yuan/ton [6]. - **Related Information** - The South China market was stable, and the Shandong market had a small increase. The East China market was mainly stable [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy** - Not clearly mentioned in the report. Fuel Oil - **Market Review** - FU07 contract closed at 2976 (- 0.73%) at night, LU07 closed at 3501 (- 0.26%) at night [9]. - In the Singapore paper - trading market, the high - sulfur Jun/July spread decreased from 17.5 to 16.5 dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Jun/July spread increased from 8.5 to 8.8 dollars/ton [9]. - **Related Information** - The Asian ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil market eased, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continued to rise. The fuel oil cracking spread in Asia decreased last week [9]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wait and see [10]. - Arbitrage: LU7 - 8 reverse arbitrage should stop profit at a low level [12]. - Options: Not clearly mentioned in the report. Natural Gas - **Market Review** - On Friday, the HH contract closed at 3.344 (+ 0%), the TTF closed at 37.253 (+ 2.2%), and the JKM closed at 12.585 (+ 0%) [12]. - **Related Information** - Last week, the US natural gas inventory increased by 120 bcf, higher than expected. The US natural gas production increased slightly to 106.1 bcf/d [12]. - **Trading Strategy** - HH unilateral: Buy on dips. TTF unilateral: Shock - strengthening [14]. - Arbitrage: Not clearly mentioned in the report. - Options: Not clearly mentioned in the report. PX - **Market Review** - The PX2509 main contract closed at 6674 (+ 0.33%) during the day and 6604 (- 1.05%) at night [14]. - The 6 - month MOPJ was estimated at $560/ton CFR. The PX price rose to $834/ton [14]. - **Related Information** - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. An East - China PX plant's disproportionation unit restarted, and a 70 - million - ton PX unit in the Northeast was restarting [15]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [16]. - Arbitrage: Long PX and short PTA [16]. - Options: Double - selling options [16]. PTA - **Market Review** - The TA509 main contract closed at 4724 (+ 0.17%) during the day and 4690 (- 0.72%) at night [16]. - The spot price of PTA in May was at a premium of 165 - 170 over the September contract [16]. - **Related Information** - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. A 100 - million - ton PTA unit in Southwest China restarted [17]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [18]. - Arbitrage: Long PX and short PTA [18]. - Options: Double - selling options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review** - The EG2509 main contract closed at 4393 (- 0.23%) during the day and 4357 (- 0.82%) at night [18]. - The spot price of ethylene glycol was at a premium of 136 - 142 yuan/ton over the September contract [19]. - **Related Information** - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The inventory of ethylene glycol in East - China main ports decreased by 5.6 million tons [19]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [20]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [20]. - Options: Sell call options [20]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review** - The PF2507 main contract closed at 6430 (- 0.31%) during the day and 6394 (- 0.56%) at night [20]. - The price of direct - spinning polyester short - fiber in Fujian was stable, and the downstream purchased on demand [20]. - **Related Information** - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The average production and sales of direct - spinning polyester short - fiber were 45% [21]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [21]. - Arbitrage: Short PTA and long PF [21]. - Options: Wait and see [21]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Review** - The PR2507 main contract closed at 6006 (+ 0.30%) during the day and 5976 (- 0.50%) at night [22]. - The trading volume of the polyester bottle - chip market was light [22]. - **Related Information** - The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was mostly stable, and a 20 - million - ton polyester bottle - chip unit in East - China stopped for maintenance [22]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Shock consolidation [23]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [23]. - Options: Sell call options [23]. Styrene - **Market Review** - The EB2507 main contract closed at 7195 (- 1.18%) during the day and 7110 (- 1.18%) at night [23]. - The price of styrene in Jiangsu in May was 7725 - 7800 yuan/ton [23]. - **Related Information** - As of May 26, the styrene inventory in East - China main ports increased by 2.25 million tons to 7.46 million tons. A 40 - million - ton styrene unit of Hanwha Total was shut down, and a 65 - million - ton unit was shut down due to a fault [24]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Shock - weakening [25]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [25]. - Options: Sell call options [25]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review** - The mainstream transaction price of LLDPE in North China was 7170 - 7400 yuan/ton, and that of PP in North China was 7020 - 7200 yuan/ton [25]. - **Related Information** - The PE maintenance ratio was 21.8%, an increase of 3 percentage points, and the PP maintenance ratio was 18.9%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points [26]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Weak in the short and medium term, hold short positions [27]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review** - The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly adjusted, and the caustic soda price in Shandong increased slightly [27]. - **Related Information** - Shandong alumina manufacturers increased the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda. The price of some caustic soda products of Jinling changed [28][29]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: PVC holds short positions, caustic soda is short - term stable and medium - term bearish [32]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [32]. - Options: Wait and see [32]. Soda Ash - **Market Review** - The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1254 yuan/ton during the day and 1239 yuan at night [32]. - The spot price of soda ash in Shahe was 1250 yuan/ton [32]. - **Related Information** - As of May 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 7.45 million tons to 160.23 million tons [33]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Bearish, slow decline [35]. - Arbitrage: Short soda ash and long glass [35]. - Options: Wait and see [35]. Glass - **Market Review** - The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1019 yuan/ton during the day and 1016 yuan/ton at night [35]. - The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1156 yuan/ton [35]. - **Related Information** - A production line in Shahe was restarted. The market in East China was weak, and the price in Central China was mostly stable [35][36]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Price shock - weakening [38]. - Arbitrage: Long glass and short soda ash [38]. - Options: Wait and see [38]. Urea - **Market Review** - The urea futures closed at 1816 (- 1.14%). The spot price of urea decreased [38]. - **Related Information** - On May 26, the daily production of the urea industry was 20.68 million tons, an increase of 0.22 million tons. The current inventory increased from 80 million tons to 91 million tons [38]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term weak [40]. - Arbitrage: 91 positive arbitrage should be deployed at a low level [40]. -