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长江期货PTA产业周报:产业供需去库,短期偏强震荡-20250512
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 04:10
长江期货PTA产业周报 产业供需去库,短期偏强震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格:鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-05-12 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员: 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人: 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 行情回顾: 1 01 上周回顾——短期供需尚可,市场低位震荡 PX:上周PX价格低位反弹。一方面成本端原油价格支撑走强。另一方面PX供应端继续减产,周度产量减少, 社会库存缓降,PXN略有回升,总体而言较前一周基本略有好转,在春检时期,短期市场价格反弹。 PTA:上周PTA价格低位回升。成本端国际油价支撑化工品反弹;供应装置方面,恒力惠州与恒力大连按计划 检修,PTA开工下降,下游聚酯负荷小幅降低,综合供需PTA去库延续,总体供需好于前一周,价格反弹。 乙二醇:上周乙二醇价格低位反弹,期初受五一期间国际油价下行影响,节后价格低开;而后随着宏观面逐步 转好,逢低买盘兴趣提升推动市场从低位反弹走势,期现价格开始反弹,但由于港口 ...
化工日报:PX装置意外增多,聚酯负荷坚挺超预期-20250509
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 07:42
市场要闻与重要数据 化工日报 | 2025-05-09 1、周四PX装置意外增多,同时宏观氛围回暖,市场价格得以提升。周三晚中金石化重整出现装置故障,PX降负 荷,目前8成附近的负荷;另外浙石化歧化更换催化剂需要停车10天左右(非计划停车),导致PX开工率降低。 2、聚酯负荷坚挺超预期:周四CCF数据聚酯负荷94%,5月聚酯月均负荷或不降反升,超出市场预期,此前4月份 市场预期聚酯负荷5月将下降,但在宏观氛围回暖、原料价格反弹下,4月底下游集中补库,长丝库存压力降低, 减产预计延后,同时市场也预期美国对中纺织品关税将下降,市场心态好转。 市场分析 PX装置意外增多,聚酯负荷坚挺超预期 成本端,五一假期期间,欧佩克+成员国同意将6月份的石油供应增加41.1万桶/日,这是继5月出人意料地大幅增产 后,该联盟连续第二个月加快供应恢复步伐,旨在惩罚那些违反配额、超额生产的成员国,原油中期供应压力持 续。 汽油和芳烃方面,汽油裂解近期有所反弹,但季节性表现仍弱于前两年,后续随着汽油需求旺季到来可能会季节 性好转,但整体在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价差上涨空间有限。芳烃方面,今年的调油需求已不值得过 多的期待。国内外 ...
成本端失去支撑 PTA期货盘面整体震荡偏弱运行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-06 06:08
5月6日盘中,PTA期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫,最低下探至4328.00元。截止发稿,PTA主力合约报 4332.00元,跌幅2.17%。 PTA期货主力跌超2%,对于后市行情如何,相关机构该如何评价? | 机构 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | | 南华期货(603093) | PTA逢低入场 | | 兴业期货 | PTA涨幅可能有限,整体震荡偏弱 | | 申银万国期货 | 预计PTA期现价格维持弱势 | 南华期货:PTA逢低入场 兴业期货:PTA涨幅可能有限,整体震荡偏弱 供应端看,多套供应商按计划检修,部分延后检修装置兑现检修,5月计划检修量处于往年同期高位。 4-5月月均去库达到50万吨,社会库存累库情况改善。需求端看,后续支撑可能不足。织造企业在3-4月 产销旺季的开工情况处于往年低位,且逐步进入淡季状态,从订单情况也可以看到表现不佳。此外中美 关税预计对服装外贸影响较大,目前出口统计数据暂未体现,但后市终端消费对原料价格支撑不足。此 外从成本端看,原油价格可能延续下行状态,对PTA有利空指引。因此尽管供应端检修有利好,但在需 求端和成本端限制下,PTA涨幅可能有限,整体震荡偏弱。 申 ...
美国关税态度缓和,关注五一织造放假情况
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-04-27 02:49
Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for MEG is neutral, with attention on Sino-US tariff negotiations and crude oil price fluctuations [9] Core Viewpoints - The EG basis is 22 yuan/ton (-35). This week, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell. After Trump's softened stance on China's tariff policy, chemical products rebounded following crude oil. On Thursday, affected by the news that ethane tariffs might be exempted, the price of ethylene glycol further declined, and the basis weakened [4] - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 68.47% (a 3.15% increase from the previous period), among which the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 63.85% (a 13.99% increase from the previous period). The load of coal-based ethylene glycol has started to recover from a low level, and non-coal device overhauls have begun one after another, with the overall load increasing [4] - In terms of demand, the weaving load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 59% (-2%), the texturing load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 71% (-2%), the polyester operating rate is 93.6% (-0.2%), and the direct-spun filament load is 90.3% (-2.2%). The inventory days of POY are 25.0 days (-3.8), FDY are 30.6 days (-2.1), and DTY are 30.9 days (-1.1). The operating rate of staple fiber factories is 91.3% (+2.4%), and the equity inventory days of staple fiber factories are 15.5 days (+0.2); the operating rate of bottle chip factories is 81.2% (+1.9%) [5] - In terms of inventory, on Thursday this week, the East China EG port inventory was 68.8 tons (-1.9). The visible inventory increased slightly compared to Monday and decreased slightly compared to last Thursday, with the overall inventory remaining stable. The current port inventory has returned to the seasonal median level in the past five years. Although there was inventory reduction in April, the hidden inventory is still relatively high, and it will take time for the market to digest it. It is difficult to see a significant decline in port inventory in the short term [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Summary - Trump's softened stance on China's tariff policy may lead to the exemption of subsequent ethane import tariffs. On the supply side, attention should be paid to the actual progress of ethane-based plants and the adjustment of imported supplies. On the demand side, the short-term polyester load remains high and stable, but direct textile and clothing orders to the US are still on hold. The expectation of polyester production cuts suppresses market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the holiday situation of weaving factories around May Day and the progress of subsequent Sino-US negotiations. Overall, the current EG inventory is at the seasonal median level in the past five years, and the hidden inventory of polyester factories is still relatively high, providing a certain buffer. The actual change in port inventory is limited, and the fundamental contradictions of EG are not significant. Attention should be paid to macro dynamics [3] EG Basis Structure - The EG basis is 22 yuan/ton (-35). This week, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell. After Trump's softened stance on China's tariff policy, chemical products rebounded following crude oil. On Thursday, affected by the news that ethane tariffs might be exempted, the price of ethylene glycol further declined, and the basis weakened [4] EG Production Profit and Operating Rate - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 68.47% (a 3.15% increase from the previous period), among which the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 63.85% (a 13.99% increase from the previous period). The load of coal-based ethylene glycol has started to recover from a low level, and non-coal device overhauls have begun one after another, with the overall load increasing [4] EG Import Profit & International Price Difference - No specific content is provided in the text regarding EG import profit and international price difference Downstream Polyester Situation - In terms of demand, the weaving load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 59% (-2%), the texturing load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 71% (-2%), the polyester operating rate is 93.6% (-0.2%), and the direct-spun filament load is 90.3% (-2.2%). The inventory days of POY are 25.0 days (-3.8), FDY are 30.6 days (-2.1), and DTY are 30.9 days (-1.1). The operating rate of staple fiber factories is 91.3% (+2.4%), and the equity inventory days of staple fiber factories are 15.5 days (+0.2); the operating rate of bottle chip factories is 81.2% (+1.9%) [5] EG Inventory Trend - On Thursday this week, the East China EG port inventory was 68.8 tons (-1.9). The visible inventory increased slightly compared to Monday and decreased slightly compared to last Thursday, with the overall inventory remaining stable. The current port inventory has returned to the seasonal median level in the past five years. Although there was inventory reduction in April, the hidden inventory is still relatively high, and it will take time for the market to digest it. It is difficult to see a significant decline in port inventory in the short term [6]
成本支撑叠加供需改善,短期震荡偏强运行
Mai Ke Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 15:10
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Cost side: Affected by Trump's tariff exemption news, risk assets in the macro - level have stabilized temporarily, but related negotiations are at a stalemate, and market sentiment is cautious. The fundamentals of crude oil have limited marginal changes, with overall expectations slightly improved and support still existing [6]. - Supply side: Last week, the PTA capacity utilization rate decreased. Over the weekend, PTA plants such as Fujian Baihong and Yisheng Dahua restarted. Without new maintenance plans, the PTA operating rate is expected to rise this week [8]. - Production profit: Last week, the PTA production profit declined. Before the macro - pessimistic sentiment eases and there are no obvious positive signs on the demand side, the PTA production profit is unlikely to recover significantly [8]. - Inventory: Last week, the total PTA inventory continued to decline, but the available days of in - factory inventory increased. The raw material inventory of downstream polyester and the warehouse receipt inventory both decreased [8]. - Demand side: Last week, the polyester operating rate remained high, but the average available days of inventory increased, and the average production profit decreased [8]. - Overall logic: The cost - side support from crude oil remains. In terms of PTA supply and demand, supply decreased and demand remained high last week. The fundamentals are good, and the total inventory is continuously decreasing, but the pessimistic sentiment caused by tariffs has led to a decline in PTA processing fees. In the later stage, if there is no new maintenance for the restarted PTA plants last week, the operating rate will rise this week. Although the polyester on the demand side is at a seasonal high in operating rate, under the pressure of high inventory, insufficient orders, and compressed profits, the high operating rate is difficult to maintain in the long term. If the PTA operating rate continues to increase, supply and demand may turn weak. However, considering the cost - side support, the short - term PTA price is expected to fluctuate. The view is to take a wait - and - see attitude towards the short - term PTA price, with the reference range for the main contract being 4200 - 4500 [6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - PTA futures price: Last week, the PTA price fluctuated narrowly and rose, with the highest price reaching 4398 yuan/ton and the lowest dropping to 4218 yuan/ton [15]. - PTA futures trading volume and open interest: Last week, the PTA futures trading volume decreased from 2.1226 million lots to 1.3233 million lots, and the open interest increased from 1.5443 million lots to 1.6102 million lots [20]. Supply - PTA weekly operating rate: The PTA capacity utilization rate decreased from 77.99% to 76.74%, and the output decreased from 1.3617 million tons to 1.3385 million tons [28]. - PTA restart and maintenance plans: Fujian Baihong and Yisheng Dahua plants restarted over the weekend. Without new maintenance, the operating rate is expected to increase this week. There are also multiple plants with maintenance and restart schedules, such as Hainan Yisheng, Sichuan Energy Investment, etc. [32]. Profit - PTA processing fee: Last week, the PTA spot processing fee decreased from 393.4 yuan/ton to 322.89 yuan/ton, and the average disk processing fee decreased from 392.63 yuan/ton to 338.43 yuan/ton [38]. Inventory - PTA total inventory: The PTA total inventory continued to decline, from 2.7843 million tons to 2.5549 million tons. The available days of in - factory inventory increased from 4.32 days to 4.36 days, the PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories decreased from 760,600 tons to 701,200 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 810,900 tons to 695,100 tons [47]. Demand - Polyester operating rate and output: Last week, the polyester capacity utilization rate decreased from 91.31% to 91.09%, and the output increased from 1.5506 million tons to 1.5588 million tons [53]. - Polyester inventory and production profit: The average polyester inventory increased from 15.56 days to 16.16 days, and the average production profit decreased from 53.02 yuan/ton to - 8.02 yuan/ton [60].
检修增多但织造负荷下滑,PTA冲高回落
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-04-18 04:57
化工日报 | 2025-04-18 检修增多但织造负荷下滑,PTA冲高回落 核心观点 市场要闻与数据 周四上午恒力石化发布两套装置检修计划,另外原油反弹,PTA价格冲高;但下午发布的下游终端开机继续下降, 信心缺乏,PTA再度回落,江浙织机综合开工率下调至61%,较上周-2%;江浙样本加弹综合开工率下调至73%, 较上周-5%,终端继续下调开机以控制原料消耗速度和坯布库存上升速度。 市场分析 成本端,短期特朗普关税政策和OPEC+减产造成的影响仍未消退,中期原油基本面依然偏弱,特朗普或以降低油 价方式抑制通胀,市场或进一步交易衰退预期,中期油价偏弱运行。 汽油和芳烃方面,近期辛烷值价差小幅反弹,但中长期汽油基本面预期依然偏弱,美国芳烃备货已开始,但整体 影响作用有限,3月以来韩国出口美国芳烃环比大幅减少, 整体成本端整体支撑作用有限。 PX方面,上上个交易日PXN170 美元/吨(环比变动+2美元/吨)。近期PX检修开始陆续执行,当前PXN估值不高, 下方仍有支撑,但在汽油弱势的情况下反弹幅度也有限,近期关注原油和宏观变动。 TA方面,TA主力合约现货基差 24 元/吨(环比变动+4元/吨),PTA现货加工费 ...
关税政策扰动,甲醇底部震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-04-13 14:38
期货研究报告|甲醇周报 2025-04-13 关税政策扰动,甲醇底部震荡 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号:F3056198 投资咨询号:Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号:F0233775 投资咨询号:Z0000421 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号:F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号:F03119179 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号:F03140168 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1289 号 甲醇观点 ■ 市场要闻与重要数据 卓创甲醇开工率 74%(+1.15%),西北开工率 81.63%(+0.85%)。国内开工率逐步提升到 中位水平。联泓化学 46+46 万吨/年煤制甲醇装置于 4 月 7 日起停车检修,为期时间待 定;兖矿国宏 64 万吨/年煤制甲醇装置双炉运行;内蒙古荣信该厂 ...