地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 11 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 11 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一，碳酸锂、沪银 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油日 本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/1 2/04 63.3 560 845 4690 6450 96.05 285.0 144 10 78.9 73.7 130935 -35 0.35 2025/1 2/05 63.8 564 838 4670 6445 96.21 274.0 162 43 79.0 73.7 131121 -33 0.45 2025/1 2/08 62.5 572 841 4650 6415 113.45 269.0 125 50 79.0 73.7 130653 -32 0.60 2025/1 2/09 61.9 563 832 4630 6415 108.98 269.0 159 82 79.0 73.7 139789 -28 0.65 2025/1 2/10 62.2 560 832 4605 6345 108.98 272.0 132 27 79.0 73.7 1438 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-09 EG主港延续累库，本周到港计划仍多 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3701元/吨（较前一交易日变动-22元/吨，幅度-0.59%），EG华东市场现货价 3690元/吨（较前一交易日变动-50元/吨，幅度-1.34%），EG华东现货基差-9元/吨（环比+6元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-85美元/吨（环比-12美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1108 元/吨（环比-52元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为81.9万吨（环比+6.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为71.9万吨（环比+1.1万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数16.3万吨，副 港到港量5.1万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数15.5万吨，副港到港量2万吨，整体偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，随着检修兑现，国内乙二醇负荷高位下降，近端供应压力有所缓解，但1月又将恢 复高供应，后续关注价格下降后乙二醇装置新增检修情况；海外供应方面，中东货源供应高位，月内远洋货到 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 05 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 05 日收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少。集运欧线涨超 ...

Core Viewpoint - Brazil has initiated an anti-dumping investigation against Chinese butyl acrylate, marking the second trade remedy investigation against China's acrylate industry within three months, reflecting tensions arising from China's rapid chemical industry expansion and global market rebalancing [1][2]. Industry Overview - China's butyl acrylate industry has achieved significant growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with total domestic capacity exceeding 4 million tons per year by 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate of 7.24% over the past five years, and accounting for nearly half of global capacity [2][8]. - The surge in production capacity has led to a decrease in import dependency, but it has also created oversupply pressures, making exports a crucial avenue for capacity digestion [2][8]. Export Dynamics - China is expected to export between 250,000 to 260,000 tons of butyl acrylate in 2025, despite a decrease compared to 2024, indicating that exports remain vital for balancing the domestic market [2][10]. - Brazil has been a significant destination for China's butyl acrylate exports, consistently ranking among the top ten export markets, and is considered an important growth point in Latin America [2][10]. Impact of Anti-Dumping Investigation - The initiation of the anti-dumping investigation is expected to directly impact the market dynamics, as Brazilian local chemical companies feel competitive pressure from Chinese imports [2][10]. - The investigation period coincides with a phase of concentrated capacity release and intensified export competition from China, leading to a notable decline in export volumes, with October 2025 exports at 26,000 tons, down 10.34% month-on-month, and a cumulative annual decline of 12.38% [5][10]. Long-term Implications - The obstruction in the Brazilian market is likely to exacerbate domestic overcapacity issues in China, further driving down product prices and narrowing industry profit margins [6][11]. - There is a potential for a ripple effect, where other countries may adopt similar trade protection measures, creating broader barriers for Chinese butyl acrylate exports [6][11]. - Smaller enterprises reliant on exports may face production risks if they cannot quickly adjust their market strategies, while larger firms, despite having better resilience, will incur additional costs associated with market transitions [6][11].

Report Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - Cost side: Brent oil price ranges from $60 to $65 per barrel. Since Q3, oil supply from the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia has increased significantly, with a bearish fundamental drive for oil prices. However, market differentiation due to sanctions persists, and the impact of geopolitical and macro events on sentiment needs to be considered [2]. - PX: PXN was $271 per ton in the previous - previous trading day (a $6.25 per - ton increase from the previous period). With market speculation on the Asia - America aromatics arbitrage and the lifting of India's BIS, PXN has widened recently. Relying on the current ample MX supply, PX load can be effectively maintained at a high level even with some fluctuations in refinery start - ups. Overseas PX remains stable at a medium - high level. PXN is supported by polyester start - up, but its rebound space is limited due to high PX load and capacity expansion of individual plants. Attention should be paid to the diversion of gasoline blending in the strong gasoline market [2]. - TA: The spot basis of the TA main contract is - 36 yuan/ton (a 5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 194 yuan/ton (a 7 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 255 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). Recently, PTA maintenance is concentrated, and the cancellation of India's BIS boosts PTA export demand. Supported by the polyester load upstream, PTA supply - demand has improved, and the basis has rebounded. Attention should be paid to the polyester load. In the long - term, after the end of the concentrated capacity release cycle, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [3]. - Demand: The polyester start - up rate is 91.3% (a 0.8% increase from the previous period). Since late October, domestic sales orders have improved significantly with the cooling weather and the start of the Double Eleven sales. The load of looms and texturing machines has rebounded sharply, and the rebound of raw material prices has led to concentrated restocking. The sales of filament yarns have increased significantly, and inventories have been reduced to a low level. The Sino - US negotiation at the end of October released positive news, reducing the fentanyl tariff by 10%, which may drive some external demand orders. Currently, polyester factory inventories are low, and the polyester load is not expected to decline significantly in the short term, remaining around 91% [3]. - PF: The spot production profit is 171 yuan/ton (a 13 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). The short - fiber load is at a high level, and inventories have been reduced to a low level. Direct - spun polyester staple fibers fluctuate and consolidate following raw materials. There is concentrated restocking by downstream at the stage - low price, but it is difficult to raise prices. With the marginal weakening of demand orders, the short - fiber processing fee is slightly compressed [3]. - PR: The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 463 yuan/ton (a 15 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). The bottle - chip load remains stable, and large manufacturers generally maintain production cuts. The inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remains stable [4]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR. The rebound space of the 01 contract may be limited, and pay attention to the 05 contract in the long - term. For cross - variety and cross - period trading, there are no recommended strategies [5][6]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][14] Upstream Profit and Spread - It covers PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - The report shows the toluene America - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It includes information on China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [28][31][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse warehouse receipts inventory, PX warehouse receipts inventory, and PF warehouse receipts inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - It covers filament yarn sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spun filament yarn load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament yarn POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing machine start - up rate [47][49][53] PF Detailed Data - It includes polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [68][72][79] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It shows polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [84][86][93]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda ash: Bearish consolidation [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased, leading to a weakening of oil prices. The supply of crude oil is in surplus during the off - season, and the pressure on oil prices is increasing. For various energy - related products, their prices are affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [1][9]. - For different chemical products, their market conditions vary. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by cost fluctuations and macro - policies [1][23]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded. Brent rose 0.53%, and SC rose 0.52%. As of November 26, the US crude oil rig count decreased by 12 to 407 [7][8]. - **Basic logic**: In the off - season, crude oil supply is in surplus, and global crude oil inventories are accelerating the accumulation. The recent easing of the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation has also put downward pressure on oil prices [9]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [445 - 455] [11]. LPG - **Market performance**: On November 27, the PG main contract closed at 4269 yuan/ton, up 0.23% month - on - month. The downstream chemical demand has certain resilience, and the inventory has improved [12][13]. - **Basic logic**: The price trend is anchored to the cost - end crude oil, and the oil price trend is downward. The downstream chemical demand has support, but the recent high basis indicates over - valuation of the futures price [14]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Do not chase the rise. Go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of PG [4250 - 4350] [15]. L - **Market performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened, and the futures price was in a premium structure [17][18]. - **Basic logic**: Domestic production has seasonally recovered, and the supply is still sufficient. The downstream start - up rate has declined for 6 consecutive weeks, and the demand support is insufficient. The oil price may decline in the medium - term, and the cost support is weak [19]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low absolute prices. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of L [6650 - 6800] [19]. PP - **Market performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6265 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, and the futures price was in a premium structure [21][22]. - **Basic logic**: The cost - end is weak, and the upper - middle - stream inventory is at a high level. The internal and external demand support is insufficient, and there is a high pressure on inventory reduction in the future. The oil price may continue to decline in the medium - term [23]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low absolute prices. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of PP [6350 - 6500] [23]. PVC - **Market performance**: The V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton. The basis was repaired, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased from a high level [24][25]. - **Basic logic**: In the short - term, the trading returns to the weak fundamentals, and the social inventory remains high. However, the low valuation provides support, and the decline space of the futures price is limited. Pay attention to the rhythm of capital position transfer [26]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The industry should conduct hedging at high prices. Be cautious about short - selling and wait for positive drivers. Pay attention to the range of V [4400 - 4550] [26]. PTA - **Market performance**: The processing fee is generally low, and the supply - side pressure has been alleviated. The downstream demand is relatively good, but the cost - end PX may follow the decline of crude oil [27][28]. - **Basic logic**: The supply - side pressure is expected to ease due to low processing fees and high - intensity device maintenance. The downstream demand is relatively good, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December [28]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA [4610 - 4680] [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market performance**: The domestic start - up load has continued to decline, and the overseas device load has slightly increased. The downstream demand is relatively good, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [29][30]. - **Basic logic**: The domestic start - up load is decreasing, and new device production and the recovery of maintenance devices will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is relatively good, but the weaving orders are slightly weakening [30]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3820 - 3880] [31]. Methanol - **Market performance**: The Taicang spot price has stabilized, and the port basis has slightly strengthened. The inventory has decreased but is still at a high level in the past five years [34]. - **Basic logic**: The domestic and overseas device loads have increased, and the supply pressure is large. The demand has improved month - on - month, and the cost - end has weak support. The fundamentals remain weak [34]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Close short positions at low valuations. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract on dips [34]. Urea - **Market performance**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong has stopped falling, and the basis has slightly strengthened. The supply pressure remains, and the demand is cold domestically and hot overseas [37][38]. - **Basic logic**: The supply pressure is still high before the gas - head enterprises' maintenance in December. The domestic agricultural demand is weak, but the fertilizer export is relatively good. The inventory has decreased slightly but is still at a high level [38][39]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR [1635 - 1675] [40]. Natural Gas - **Market performance**: On November 26, the NG main contract closed at 4.558 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 1.72% month - on - month [42][43]. - **Basic logic**: The recent easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has put downward pressure on gas prices, but the demand has entered the consumption peak season, providing certain support [44]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The demand has support, but the supply is sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of NG [4.565 - 4.800] [45]. Asphalt - **Market performance**: On November 27, the BU main contract closed at 3007 yuan/ton, down 1.18% month - on - month. The profit has decreased, and the inventory has decreased [47][48]. - **Basic logic**: The price is mainly affected by the cost - end crude oil. The supply is expected to decrease in December, and the demand has increased slightly this week [49]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU [2950 - 3050] [50]. Glass - **Market performance**: The FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton. The cold - repair expectation provides support, but the demand is weak [52][53]. - **Basic logic**: The daily melting volume has decreased and remains at 15.82 tons. The demand support is insufficient due to the weak real - estate market [54]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Close short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of FG [990 - 1040] [54]. Soda Ash - **Market performance**: The demand has weakened, and the futures price is in a consolidation state [55]. - **Basic logic**: Some devices have been overhauled or reduced production, and the demand has decreased. The supply will remain in a loose pattern in the long - term [6]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term [6].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The domestic ethylene glycol industry has entered a deep adjustment phase of supply - demand re - balancing. Since September, the ethylene glycol futures 2601 contract has been on a unilateral downward trend, and it is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the future [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Supply Side - Domestic ethylene glycol production capacity is continuously released, and supply pressure is accumulating. As of the week of November 13, the domestic ethylene glycol enterprise capacity utilization rate was 66.00%, with a slight increase of 0.12 percentage points. The total output was 41.37 tons, a slight increase of 0.08 tons. The capacity utilization rate is at a relatively high level this year [3]. - In 2025, the total domestic ethylene glycol production capacity exceeded 29.8 million tons. The trial - run of Shandong Yulong's 900,000 - ton device strengthened the expectation of increased supply. Although some devices are planned for maintenance, new production capacity far exceeds the short - term reduction caused by maintenance, resulting in a continuously loose supply - demand pattern [3]. - Overseas supply has decreased due to some US device shutdowns and low - load operation of Saudi devices, and imports are at a relatively low level. However, the significant increase in domestic self - sufficiency has weakened the marginal impact of imports [3]. Demand Side - Downstream demand is weak, and its support for prices is extremely limited. About 95% of ethylene glycol consumption is concentrated in the polyester industry. After the "Double Eleven" orders in the textile market were delivered, subsequent orders were scarce, and the market was cautious about the future [4]. - As of the week of November 13, domestic ethylene glycol demand was 552,200 tons, a 0.31% decrease from the previous week [4]. Inventory - Port inventory has been continuously accumulating. As of the week of November 13, the total inventory of MEG at the East China main port reached 618,000 tons, a slight increase of 13,000 tons. The inventory accumulation is due to increased domestic production, concentrated arrivals of goods, and insufficient downstream receiving capacity [5]. - With the stable output of new devices and more arrival plans, the inventory accumulation trend is difficult to reverse, and high inventory will suppress prices [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [2] - L: Bearish consolidation [2] - PP: Bearish consolidation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bullish but with weakening expectations [2] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously chase up but beware of downside risks [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current core driver of the oil market is the supply surplus in the off - season. Although short - term factors such as strong refined oil profits and the Russia - Ukraine conflict may cause oil prices to strengthen, the overall downward pressure on oil prices is large. Other energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and seasonal characteristics, showing different trends [2][9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market review**: Overnight international oil prices strengthened short - term, with WTI rising 1.43%, Brent rising 1.72%, and SC falling 0.17% [7][8]. - **Basic logic**: The core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season. OPEC+ plans to expand production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause expansion in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Arabia has significantly reduced the official selling price for Asian buyers in December. Demand from Russia to India has decreased, and US inventories have changed [9][10]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold previous short positions. SC focuses on the range of [460 - 475] [11]. LPG - **Market review**: On November 11, the PG main contract closed at 4,332 yuan/ton, up 0.93% [12][13]. - **Basic logic**: It is anchored to the cost of crude oil. Although oil prices have rebounded, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. Supply has decreased slightly, demand has shown some resilience, and inventories at ports and factories have declined [14]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. PG focuses on the range of [4300 - 4400] [15]. L - **Market review**: The L01 closing price (main contract) was 6,760 yuan/ton, down 0.6% [17]. - **Basic logic**: Spot price decline has slowed, and the market has shifted to a contango structure. Supply is loose, demand for replenishment is insufficient, and cost support is weak [19]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Reduce short positions at the short - term stop - falling level. Be bearish on the medium - to - long - term rebound. L focuses on the range of [6700 - 6850] [19]. PP - **Market review**: The PP01 closing price (main contract) was 6,429 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [21]. - **Basic logic**: The fundamentals are weak following the decline in coking coal prices. Inventory pressure is high, and oil prices still face a downward risk in the medium term [23]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Reduce short positions at the short - term stop - falling level. Be bearish on the medium - to - long - term rebound. PP focuses on the range of [6350 - 6500] [23]. PVC - **Market review**: The V01 closing price (main contract) was 4,572 yuan/ton, down 0.9% [25]. - **Basic logic**: The market follows coking coal to find the bottom. Although inventories are high, low valuations limit further downside. The market is in a high - premium state [27]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Industries should conduct hedging at high prices. Be cautious about short - chasing. V focuses on the range of [4500 - 4650] [27]. PX - **Basic logic**: Supply from domestic and overseas plants has increased. Demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX spreads are relatively high, and the crude oil supply - demand pattern remains loose [28]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing up on a single - side basis. For arbitrage, focus on expanding downstream processing margins (i.e., long PTA, short PX). PX focuses on the range of [6700 - 6810] [29]. PTA - **Market review**: TA05 was 4,728 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; TA11 was 4,616 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; TA01 was 4,664 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [30]. - **Basic logic**: Processing margins are low. Later, the intensity of plant maintenance is expected to increase, and supply pressure is expected to ease. Downstream demand has improved slightly, but there is an inventory accumulation expectation in November. Oil prices are under pressure [31]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on a single - side basis at low prices. For arbitrage, focus on expanding TA processing margins (i.e., long PTA, short PX). TA focuses on the range of [4620 - 4685] [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market review**: EG05 was 3,942 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; EG11 was 3,848 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; EG01 was 4,019 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [33]. - **Basic logic**: Domestic plant maintenance has increased, and new plant commissioning and the resumption of maintenance plants will increase supply pressure. Downstream demand has improved but is expected to weaken. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in November, and it lacks upward drivers [34]. - **Strategy recommendation**: It is in a low - level oscillation. Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. EG focuses on the range of [3855 - 3920] [35]. Methanol - **Basic logic**: High inventories suppress price rebounds. Supply pressure is large, demand is average, and cost support is weak. The fundamentals remain weak [38]. - **Strategy recommendation**: It is in a weak oscillation. Hold short positions cautiously. For arbitrage, focus on the MA1 - 5 reverse spread [4]. Urea - **Market review**: UR05 was 1,734 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; UR09 was 1,753 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; UR01 was 1,667 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan [41]. - **Basic logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand has improved slightly, inventories are at a high level, and exports have maintained a high growth rate. The market has a ceiling and a floor [42]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Be wary of the risk of the market falling after rising. UR focuses on the range of [1628 - 1658] [43]. Natural Gas - **Market review**: On November 11, the NG main contract closed at $4.764 per million British thermal units, up 4.96% [45][46]. - **Basic logic**: As the temperature drops, the demand for combustion and heating increases, providing support for gas prices. Supply is sufficient, and inventories in the US have increased [47]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Although the demand season provides support, supply is sufficient, and upward pressure increases. NG focuses on the range of [4.415 - 4.581] [48]. Asphalt - **Basic logic**: The cost of crude oil has decreased with the release of geopolitical risks. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the demand season is coming to an end. Valuations are high [6]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions [6]. Glass - **Basic logic**: The fundamentals are weak. Supply is unlikely to decline further, inventories are high, and domestic demand is weak [6]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short - term, cold - repair provides support. In the medium - to - long - term, be bearish on rebounds [6]. Soda Ash - **Basic logic**: The increase in photovoltaic melting volume and plant maintenance has led to a short - term rebound. Inventories are still high, and the supply will remain loose in the long - term [6]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Industries should conduct sell - hedging at high prices. Be bearish on medium - to - long - term rebounds [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The closing price of the main EG futures contract was 3,875 yuan/ton (down 78 yuan/ton or 1.97% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3,979 yuan/ton (down 29 yuan/ton or 0.72%). The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton). With the restart of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and the decline in coal prices, EG showed a weak downward trend [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$57/ton (down $2/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was -911 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton) [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 66.1 tons (up 9.9 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 56.4 tons (up 6.5 tons). With more arrival plans this week, inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - On the supply side, domestic ethylene glycol production is at a high level, and overseas device changes are limited. Arrival plans around mid - November are still moderately high, and port inventory is expected to gradually increase. On the demand side, polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. An inverse spread strategy is recommended for EG2601 - EG2605, and no cross - variety strategy is provided [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG futures contract was 3,875 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China market was 3,979 yuan/ton. The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$57/ton, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -911 yuan/ton [1]. - Domestic ethylene glycol production is at a high level [2]. International Price Difference No specific data or analysis on international price differences is provided in the text, only a figure (Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR) is mentioned [19]. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 66.1 tons, and according to Longzhong data, it was 56.4 tons. Arrival plans this week are more, and inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - Around mid - November, arrival plans are still moderately high, and port inventory is expected to gradually increase [2].