研究所 大幅下跌，等待盘面企稳 ——国信期货纸浆周报 2026年1月16日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 行情回顾 一、本周行情回顾 研究所 纸浆期货主力合约SP2605大幅下跌，周度跌幅为3.39%。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 研究所 卓创资讯监测数据显示，截至1月15日，本周进口针叶浆周均价5552元/吨，较上周下跌0.52%，由涨转跌；进口阔叶浆周均价4683元/吨，较上周上涨 0.60%，涨幅较上期收窄0.14个百分点。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice 卓创资讯 国信期货 6 二、基本面分析：1-12月纸浆累计进口量同比增加 研究所 据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，2025年12月，我国进口纸浆311.3万吨，进口金额为1799.4百万美元，平均单价为578.03美元/吨。1月至12月 累计进口量及金额较去年同期分别增加4.9%、-2.4%。 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 基本面分析 二、 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][6][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - For cotton, in the short - term, the domestic market faces downstream and price - difference pressures with a risk of high - level correction. In the long - term, the upward space depends on policy implementation. The global market has short - term supply pressure and weak consumption, while the US cotton is in a low - valuation range [2] - For sugar, the 2025/26 global sugar market is in surplus. In the short - term, the trade flow is in a tight balance, and in the long - term, the market should not be overly pessimistic. The domestic market has increasing supply and inventory pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][6] - For pulp, overseas supply is disrupted, and there is a pre - Spring Festival restocking expectation. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and inventory digestion [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,675 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton (- 0.91%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,727 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,972 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [1] - India's 2025/26 cotton production increased by 130,000 tons, domestic demand by 170,000 tons, and exports decreased by 50,000 tons compared to last month's assessment. Compared with the previous year, the ending inventory increased by 800,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is on the market, with high supply pressure and weak consumption. The US cotton export is slow, and it is under short - term pressure. Domestically, the 2025/26 cotton production increased, the commercial inventory rose seasonally, the downstream orders declined, and the inventory increased. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possible inventory shortage at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Neutral. Be vigilant against high - level correction in the short term, and the long - term upward space depends on policy implementation [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,280 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (- 0.36%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,215 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [2] - As of January 12, 2026, Punjab, India had crushed over 18.647 million tons of sugarcane, producing 1.712 million tons of sugar [3] Market Analysis - The global 2025/26 sugar market is in surplus. In the short term, the trade flow is in a tight balance, and in the long term, the market should not be overly pessimistic. Domestically, sugar production is increasing, the supply is growing seasonally, and the import pressure remains high [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. The price may oscillate at the bottom in the short - to - medium term, with limited downward space [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,436 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton (- 1.06%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,515 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,090 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market price turned weak. The price of imported softwood pulp in some markets decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and the price of imported hardwood pulp in some markets decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills had shutdown and maintenance. Demand: European port inventory decreased, and domestic port inventory was high but decreased slightly in December. The expanding paper production capacity will increase the demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, and the upward height depends on demand and inventory [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Cotton and Sugar Markets - **Key Trends**: The cotton market in 2025 experienced significant fluctuations due to U.S.-China relations, inventory tightness, and price volatility. The sugar market in Brazil is influenced by drought conditions and production choices between sugar and ethanol. Cotton Market Insights - **Price Fluctuations**: Domestic cotton prices in China saw a rapid decline before the Qingming Festival, followed by a recovery due to tight inventory and strong consumption. The first quarter was strong, but prices dropped significantly in March and April due to high tariffs, reaching annual lows. [1][2][3] - **Global Supply and Demand**: The USDA reported a slight adjustment in global cotton supply surplus for the 2025/26 season, with a total production estimate of 26 million tons, an increase of 2.1 million tons year-on-year. Major producers like China and Brazil had good harvests, while the U.S. production remained at a multi-year low. [4][60] - **Export Dynamics**: U.S. cotton exports decreased by 13% year-on-year, with China’s contracts down by 54%, while Vietnam's increased by 46%. [4][61] - **Consumption Resilience**: Despite global supply being slightly loose, cotton consumption remained resilient, particularly in major textile exporting countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh, which saw significant increases in operating rates. [5][66] Sugar Market Insights - **Brazilian Sugar Production**: In 2025, Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 2.36% year-on-year, but the sugar production increased by 0.86% due to a higher sugar-to-ethanol production ratio. Drought conditions significantly impacted sugarcane yield. [17][18] - **Impact of Drought**: The drought in Brazil has historically led to significant declines in sugarcane yield, with the 2025 yield dropping to 75.67 tons per hectare, a decrease of 5.14% year-on-year. [19][79] - **Market Dynamics**: The sugar market is expected to experience a rebound after a prolonged decline, with predictions of a price increase in the third quarter of 2026 due to tightening supply conditions. [77] Key Risks and Considerations - **Geopolitical Factors**: The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, continue to influence market dynamics, especially in cotton procurement. [62][74] - **Weather Risks**: Future weather patterns, particularly the potential for drought due to El Niño, pose risks to both cotton and sugar production in major producing regions. [28][33][34] - **Inventory Levels**: Monitoring commercial inventory levels in China is crucial, as a tight inventory could lead to price increases, while high levels could suppress prices. [71][74] Additional Insights - **Chinese Cotton Market**: The domestic cotton market is characterized by strong demand and stable inventory levels, with production estimates ranging from 7.51 million to 7.73 million tons for the new season. [68][9] - **Future Production Policies**: There are policies aimed at reducing cotton planting areas in China, but achieving these targets may be challenging due to farmers' preferences for cotton over other crops. [69] - **Global Sugar Supply**: The sugar market is expected to remain oversupplied, with Brazil's production choices heavily influencing international sugar prices. [80][81] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends from the conference call records, focusing on the cotton and sugar markets, their dynamics, and the associated risks.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three sectors (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][9] Core Views - The cotton market lacks positive drivers and faces pressure from downstream transmission and internal - external price differentials in the short term. In the long term, its upward potential depends on policy implementation [2][3] - The sugar market is in a state of global surplus in the 25/26 season. Although the short - term trade flow is tight, the medium - term outlook is bearish. The long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Currently, domestic sugar is in a state of supply increase, and the short - to - medium - term price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5][6] - The pulp market has continuous overseas supply disruptions. With the expectation of pre - Spring Festival restocking, domestic demand may show a mild recovery. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 14,810 yuan/ton yesterday, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,717 yuan/ton, up 217 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 907, up 167 from the previous day; the national average price of 3128B cotton was 15,970 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 1160, up 137 from the previous day. From January 5th to 11th, the number of ginning mills in Xinjiang that ended processing increased, and the processing volume continued to decline. The average purchase price of inland seed cotton was 6.78 yuan/kg, down 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of January 11th, 1096 cotton processing enterprises nationwide had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.784 million tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is concentrated on the market, with high supply pressure and weak global textile consumption. The ICE U.S. cotton is expected to be under pressure in the short term, but has limited downward space in the long term. Domestically, China's cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, and the commercial inventory is seasonally rising. Although the pre - festival stocking by yarn mills and traders is active, downstream orders and product sales have decreased, and the inventory in the industrial chain, especially at the grey fabric end, has increased significantly. For the whole year, domestic cotton consumption has increased due to the expansion of yarn spindle capacity, and the supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of inventory tightening at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Be vigilant against the risk of high - level callbacks in the short term. The long - term upward space depends on the implementation of relevant policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5299 yuan/ton yesterday, up 46 yuan/ton (+0.88%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 + 71, down 36 from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR05 - 69, down 46 from the previous day. In the first half of December, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 5.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.894 million tons (-32.83%); the sugar production was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 102,000 tons (-28.76%) [4] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in a surplus in the 25/26 season. In the short term, the tight trade flow in the first quarter may support the raw sugar price. In the medium term, the surplus pattern will suppress the market. In the long term, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and there are still uncertainties in the weather in 2026 and the planting area in Thailand. In China, sugar production has increased for the third consecutive year, and the pre - festival stocking demand may support the price. However, the import pressure is high, and the amount of syrup has not decreased significantly [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. In the short - to - medium term, although the valuation is low, there is still a possibility of another bottom - seeking, but the overall downward space is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The pulp 2605 contract closed at 5494 yuan/ton yesterday, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 + 56, down 2 from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Urals and Bratsk) was 5135 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 - 359, down 2 from the previous day. Yesterday, the imported wood pulp spot market stabilized, with weak trading volume [7] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, there have been continuous news of overseas pulp mill shutdowns and maintenance at the end of 2025. In terms of demand, the inventory of wood pulp in European ports continued to decline in November, and the demand continued to improve. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation this year, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory has been at a historical high. However, the port inventory decreased slightly in December, and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity will generate marginal incremental demand for pulp, which may support the pulp price to gradually stabilize [8] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. With continuous overseas supply disruptions and the expectation of pre - Spring Festival restocking, the short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp futures have limited room for further upside due to the recent concentrated registration of pulp futures warrants, but the firmness of hardwood pulp and the stabilization of finished paper prices provide bottom support for pulp futures and spot prices. The pulp futures are expected to trade in the range of 5,400 - 5,700 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 14, 2026, SP2601 was 5,470 yuan/ton, up 0.89% day - on - day and down 0.91% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.84% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5,494 yuan/ton, up 0.04% day - on - day and down 1.82% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.90% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5,350 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.93% week - on - week; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4,730 yuan/ton, down 0.42% day - on - day and up 0.21% week - on - week [6]. - **Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star's outer - disk quote was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% month - on - month, and its import cost was 5,802 yuan/ton, up 1.42% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish's outer - disk quote was 560 dollars/ton, up 3.70% month - on - month, and its import cost was 4,587 yuan/ton, up 3.66% month - on - month; Chilean Venus's outer - disk quote was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month, and its import cost was 5,073 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons, up 4.92% month - on - month compared to October; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 176.5 tons, up 33.92% month - on - month compared to October [6]. - **Shipment Volume to China**: In November 2025, the shipment volume of pulp to China was 178 thousand tons, up 3.00% month - on - month [6]. - **Domestic Production Volume**: As of January 8, 2026, the domestic production volume of hardwood pulp was 25.1 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.9 tons [6]. - **Port Inventory**: As of January 4, 2026, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 199.7 tons, up 4.8% compared to the previous period, ending five consecutive weeks of destocking [6][7]. - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of January 8, 2026, the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 13.5 tons [6]. - **Finished Paper Production Volume**: The production volume of offset paper was 20.40 tons, coated paper was 8.40 tons, tissue paper was 29.33 tons, and white cardboard was 38.30 tons [6]. Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: Chile's Arauco Company's January coniferous pulp offer was 710 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; hardwood pulp Star's offer was 590 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; and natural pulp Venus's offer was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Demand Side**: The demand for pulp has been stable recently. The price of tissue paper has risen slightly, while the prices of other paper products have been stable. The production volume of major wood - pulp paper products has been stable [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent pulp futures warehouse receipts are concentrated for registration, with limited further upside potential. However, the firmness of broadleaf pulp and the stabilization of finished paper prices provide bottom support for pulp futures and spot prices. Pulp futures are expected to trade in the range of 5,400 - 5,700 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 13, 2026, SP2601 was 5,422 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 1.92%; SP2609 was 5,540 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 1.91%; SP2605 was 5,492 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.04% and a weekly decrease of 2.14% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5,600 yuan/ton with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.90%; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5,350 yuan/ton with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.93%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4,750 yuan/ton with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.64% [6]. - **External Quotes and Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star's external quote was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% from the previous period, and its import cost was 5,802 yuan/ton, up 1.42%; Brazilian Goldfish's external quote was 560 dollars/ton, up 3.70% from the previous period, and its import cost was 4,587 yuan/ton, up 3.66%; Chilean Venus's external quote was 620 dollars/ton with no change, and its import cost was 5,073 yuan/ton with no change [6]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In November 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 72.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%; broadleaf pulp imports were 176.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.92%. The shipment volume of pulp to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 3%. From December 25, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was around 25 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was around 23.9 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: As of January 4, 2026, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 199.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.8%. The inventory of futures delivery warehouses increased from 9.9 tons on December 18, 2025, to 13.5 tons on January 8, 2026 [6]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper products was relatively stable. Double - offset paper production was around 20.4 tons, coated paper production was around 8.4 tons, tissue paper production was around 29.33 tons, and white cardboard production was around 38.3 tons [6].

Core Viewpoint - The import wood pulp market is expected to experience a strong performance before the Spring Festival in early 2026, driven by cost pressures and limited supply growth, but will likely face downward pressure post-holiday due to weak demand and low profitability in the paper industry [3][10]. Group 1: Price Trends - In Q4 2025, the import wood pulp market showed a general upward trend, particularly for broadleaf pulp, driven by cost pressures from external markets [3][15]. - As of December 31, 2025, the average price for imported broadleaf pulp was 4627.63 CNY/ton, up 385.26 CNY/ton (9.08%) from September 30, 2025 [4][15]. - The average price for imported needle pulp was 5577.32 CNY/ton, up 37.86 CNY/ton (0.68%), while other pulp types showed smaller increases [4][15]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The supply growth rate for wood pulp is expected to slow down in Q1 2026, with domestic production increasing by only 1.26% and imports projected to decline by 6.34% [7][19]. - The overall wood pulp supply is expected to grow by 3.41% in Q1 2026, but this growth is significantly reduced compared to previous periods [19]. Group 3: Demand Factors - The total demand for wood pulp is anticipated to decrease by approximately 10.36% in Q1 2026, primarily due to new production capacities coming online late in the quarter and maintenance shutdowns during the Spring Festival [8][20]. - The profitability of the paper industry is mixed, with cultural paper companies adopting discount strategies, while white card and life paper sectors may see slight improvements in margins due to seasonal demand [20]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall market for imported wood pulp is expected to show a pattern of rising prices followed by a decline, influenced by seasonal factors and cost increases from external markets [10][21]. - Specific price forecasts for Q1 2026 include needle pulp at 5582.00 CNY/ton, broadleaf pulp at 4643.33 CNY/ton, and chemical pulp at 3855.33 CNY/ton, with varying adjustments from Q4 2025 [21].

Report Information - **Report Title**: Energy and Chemical Weekly - **Date**: January 9, 2026 - **Research Team**: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The oil market is affected by geopolitical events such as the US takeover of Venezuela's oil industry and the turmoil in Iran. Crude oil supply has an increasing expectation, and the market faces a large inventory accumulation pressure in Q1 2026. Oil prices still have a risk of decline [7][10]. - The asphalt market has relatively balanced supply and demand, and the raw material end has certain support. It is expected that asphalt prices may run strongly. It is recommended to consider going long on asphalt and short on crude oil [30][31]. - The polyester market is in a demand - off season. PTA is expected to transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, and its price may decline slightly. Ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a concentrated inventory accumulation before and after the Spring Festival, and its price may have a small - scale callback [57][58]. - The price of polyester staple fiber is expected to decline due to weakening cost and poor supply - demand structure [66]. - The polyolefin market is expected to rise first and then fall under the drive of supply recovery and demand entering the off - season inventory digestion cycle [84]. - The polysilicon market has an upward price but no improvement in fundamentals. The downstream is in a cycle of production reduction, and the terminal demand is in an off - season [118]. - The industrial silicon market has a neutral performance. The supply is at a seasonal low, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [138]. - The pulp market has limited fundamental changes and is expected to operate in a volatile adjustment [154]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI crude oil closed at $58.28/barrel, up 1.66%; Brent crude oil closed at $62.79/barrel, up 3.27%; SC crude oil closed at 432.7 yuan/barrel, up 0.12%. The US takeover of Venezuela's oil industry and the turmoil in Iran have affected the oil price. The market faces inventory accumulation pressure in Q1 2026, and oil prices have a risk of decline [7]. 2. Fundamental Changes - The US takeover of Venezuela's oil industry and the turmoil in Iran have affected the supply and demand of the oil market. The US crude oil inventory decreased, but the refined oil inventory increased. The inventory accumulation speed in Q1 2026 slowed down slightly [10]. Asphalt 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The BU2603 contract closed at 3171 yuan/ton, down 4.45%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China all increased. The supply of asphalt may decrease, and the demand is divided between the north and the south. It is recommended to go long on asphalt and short on crude oil [30][31]. 2. Fundamental Changes - The cost is affected by the oil market. The domestic asphalt device maintenance loss increased, and the average operating load rate decreased. The production profit increased. The demand is divided between the north and the south, and the inventory increased [33][34][35]. Polyester 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The cost support for PTA is weakening, and the demand is decreasing. It is expected to transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, and the price may decline slightly. Ethylene glycol is expected to maintain inventory accumulation, and the price may have a small - scale callback [57][58]. 2. Main Driving Forces - The downstream consumption demand is decreasing. The supply of PTA is expected to decrease, and the price may decline. The ethylene glycol industry's operating load rate decreased, the inventory increased, and the profit increased slightly [59][60][62]. Polyester Staple Fiber 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market declined last week. This week, the cost support is weak, the supply is loose, and the demand is in an off - season. It is expected that the price will decline [66]. 2. Main Driving Forces - The downstream consumption demand is weakening. The operating load rate of the polyester staple fiber industry is stable, and the supply is loose. The cost and supply - demand factors drag down the price [67][68]. Polyolefin 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The futures and spot prices of polyolefin increased last week. The supply pressure of polypropylene decreased, and the supply pressure of plastics increased slightly. The demand is in an off - season, and it is expected to rise first and then fall [76][84]. 2. Fundamental Changes - Polypropylene has more temporary maintenance, and the production decreases. The production of polyethylene increases slightly. The production profit of different raw materials has different changes. The inventory of two - oil companies decreased, and the downstream operating rate is divided [85][90][99]. Polysilicon 1. Market Review and Outlook - The price of polysilicon increased, but the fundamentals have no improvement expectation. The downstream is in a cycle of production reduction, and the terminal demand is in an off - season [118]. 2. Overview of the Photovoltaic Industry's Fundamentals - The market supervision department has taken regulatory measures. The prices of the photovoltaic industry chain are running strongly, but the supply exceeds demand, and the inventory removal resistance is large [119][121]. Industrial Silicon 1. Futures Review and Outlook - The price of industrial silicon futures declined, and the trading volume and open interest increased. The supply is at a seasonal low, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [138]. 2. Overview of the Industrial Silicon's Fundamentals - The prices of the industrial silicon industry chain are running strongly. The production of industrial silicon is at a seasonal low, the demand is weak, the export is stable, and the inventory is slowly accumulating [139][140][141]. Pulp 1. Pulp Market Review and Outlook - The price of pulp futures declined slightly. The spot prices of imported pulp mostly increased. The fundamentals of pulp changed little, and it is expected to operate in a volatile adjustment [153][154]. 2. Fundamental Changes - The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries decreased in November. China's pulp import volume increased in November. The global pulp inventory days increased, and the domestic and European port inventories decreased. The downstream market is stable [155][161][168].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp futures weakened significantly today due to the macro - sentiment of commodities but did not break the 5400 - 5700 trading range. It is expected to be highly volatile in the near term due to commodity sentiment, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data Futures and Spot Prices - On January 8, 2026, SP2601 futures price was 5444 yuan/ton, down 1.38% day - on - day and 0.95% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5564 yuan/ton, down 1.42% day - on - day and 0.71% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5504 yuan/ton, down 1.64% day - on - day and 1.15% week - on - week [6] - The spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton, up 0.90% day - on - day and unchanged week - on - week; the spot price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5300 yuan/ton, down 1.85% both day - on - day and week - on - week; the spot price of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4750 yuan/ton, up 1.06% both day - on - day and week - on - week [6] Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quote of Chile Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% month - on - month; its import cost was 5802 yuan/ton, up 1.42% month - on - month [6] - The outer - disk quote of Brazil Goldfish was 560 dollars/ton, up 3.70% month - on - month; its import cost was 4587 yuan/ton, up 3.66% month - on - month [6] - The outer - disk quote of Chile Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month; its import cost was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6] Pulp Fundamental Data Import Volume and Shipment - In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons, up 4.92% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 176.5 tons, up 33.92% month - on - month [6] - The pulp shipment volume to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3% [6] Domestic Output - On January 8, 2026, the domestic output of broadleaf pulp was 25.1 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.9 tons [6] Inventory - As of January 4, 2026, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 199.7 tons, up 9.1 tons from the previous period and 4.8% higher on a month - on - month basis. The inventory ended the five - week de - stocking trend and started to accumulate in this cycle [6] - On January 8, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 200.7 tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 13.5 tons [6] Demand (Finished Paper Production) - On January 8, 2026, the production of offset paper was 20.40 tons, coated paper was 8.40 tons, tissue paper was 29.33 tons, and white cardboard was 38.30 tons [6] Supply and Demand - Supply: Chile's Arauco Company's January offer for coniferous pulp was 710 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; the offer for broadleaf pulp Star was 590 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; the offer for natural pulp Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [6] - Demand: The pulp demand has been stable recently. The price of tissue paper has risen slightly, while the prices of other paper products have been stable. The production of major wood - pulp paper products has been stable [6]