1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to remain oscillating weakly in the short term. The imported pulp market is expected to continue to be differentiated. Coniferous pulp is under pressure due to high inventory and financial attribute disturbances, while broadleaf pulp is relatively resistant to decline supported by costs, but weak demand will limit its upside potential [102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - As of November 27, 2025, the inventory at Changshu Port was 572,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons or 3.1%. Qingdao Port's inventory was 1,429,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,000 tons or 2.3%. Gaolan Port's inventory was 60,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons or 17.6%. The total inventory of major Chinese pulp ports was 2,172,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons or 0.05%, showing a slight de - stocking trend [5][6]. - According to Longzhong Information on November 27, Chile's Arauco Company's November offer for broadleaf pulp Star was $550 per ton, and for natural pulp Venus was $620 per ton [6]. Market Data Market Trends - On November 28, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 202 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 50.49%. The basis of Russian Needle was - 28 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 33.33%. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.89% [15]. Monthly Spreads - On November 28, 2025, the 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 18 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 43.75%. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 23.08% [20]. Fundamental Data Price - The price difference between coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased. On November 28, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Jinyu was 1,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.20%. The price difference between Russian Needle and Jinyu was 770 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.84% [27]. - The import profit of coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased. On November 28, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was - 119.43 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 57.07% and a year - on - year increase of 47.47%. The import profit of broadleaf pulp (Star) was - 29.54 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 165.34% and a year - on - year increase of 69.93% [30]. - The spot price of imported coniferous pulp declined further. On November 28, 2025, the price of Silver Star was 5,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.32%. The price of broadleaf pulp was expected to increase slightly due to cost support [32][35]. Supply - The purchase price of wood chips by paper enterprises in East China was generally stable this week, with individual prices falling. The supply of domestic chemical mechanical pulp decreased, and the operating rate of domestic broadleaf pulp decreased [44][48]. - In September 2025, the pulp port inventory in Europe decreased month - on - month. In October, the global pulp shipping volume decreased seasonally month - on - month [52]. - In August 2025, the shipping volume of W20 coniferous pulp was at a low level with high inventory, while the shipping volume of broadleaf pulp remained high but with a low inventory days [56]. - In August 2025, the total coniferous pulp exports of Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China decreased month - on - month and were at a low level year - on - year. In September, Finland's exports to China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In October, Chile's coniferous pulp exports to China continued to increase month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [62]. - In September 2025, the total broadleaf pulp exports of Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile to China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In October, Brazil's exports decreased slightly month - on - month, and Uruguay's exports decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [66]. - In October 2025, China's pulp imports were differentiated. Coniferous pulp imports increased by 0.06% month - on - month, broadleaf pulp imports decreased by 2.77% month - on - month, and the imports of natural pulp and chemical mechanical pulp increased significantly [68]. Demand - The price of offset paper increased slightly this week. Due to profitability and production - sales pressure, some production lines were transferred or operated at reduced loads. The supply was abundant, and the demand was weak, with users mainly making rigid purchases [72]. - The price of coated paper decreased slightly this week. The supply was abundant, and the consumption was weak due to the impact of electronic media. Factories' willingness to support prices increased [76]. - The price of white cardboard remained stable. Although the cost decreased slightly, it was still at a high level. Paper mills planned to increase prices in December. The supply increased due to new capacity, and the sales were stable. Traders were mainly waiting and seeing [80]. - The price of household paper remained stable. The terminal demand was weak, and some paper enterprises faced shipment pressure. The de - stocking process slowed down, and the industry operating rate remained low [84]. - In October 2025, the retail sales of cultural and office supplies, cosmetics, and daily necessities increased significantly year - on - year [88]. Inventory - On November 28, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 209,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.92% [91]. - The overall port inventory was at a medium level within the year, showing a slight de - stocking trend. Qingdao Port's inventory decreased slightly, Changshu Port's inventory increased, and the inventory of other ports fluctuated within a normal range [97].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In terms of supply, overseas new - capacity addition is limited in 2025 - 2026. With major overseas broadleaf pulp mills announcing production cuts and conversions in the second half of this year, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease in 2026, and the growth rate of broadleaf pulp shipments may slow down. European economic improvement may increase the proportion of trade pulp sent to Europe, alleviating China's import pressure. However, domestic broadleaf pulp new - capacity addition in recent years may bring more supply next year, and the overall domestic supply may remain relatively loose [5][50]. - Regarding demand, although a large amount of finished paper capacity was put into production this year, terminal demand was insufficient, paper was in surplus, and paper mills' operating rates were low. The downstream paper mills were cautious in raw material procurement, resulting in high port inventories. But the continuous expansion of paper capacity will create marginal incremental demand for pulp, which may support the pulp price to stabilize gradually. Next year, the demand for cultural paper is not expected to be strong, and packaging paper and household paper are likely to be the main growth points [5][50]. - Overall, in the short - term, the improvement in pulp supply and demand is insufficient, and the pulp price may stay at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, the pulp price center is expected to rise. It is recommended to wait for the bottom - building and then consider long - position opportunities when the price is low. The breakthrough from the bottom depends on substantial improvement in supply and demand. Attention should also be paid to the impact of the remaining cloth - needle warehouse receipts on the market [6][51]. Summary by Directory 2025 Pulp Market Review - The pulp price showed a trend of continuous decline followed by wide - range fluctuations at a low level throughout the year. It can be divided into five stages: from January to early February, it fluctuated strongly; from mid - February to early May, it declined continuously; from mid - May to July, it fluctuated widely; from August to early October, it hit a new low again; from mid - October to the present, it consolidated at a low level [12][13]. Pulp Supply - Demand Analysis Global Wood Pulp Supply - In 2025, overseas pulp mills had few large - scale new installations. The capacity ramp - up of Suzano's broadleaf pulp in Brazil was the main source of market pressure. The global broadleaf pulp shipments remained at a high level throughout the year, and the global softwood pulp shipments recovered rapidly in the third quarter. The shipments to Western Europe and North America decreased, while the demand from China increased significantly. In 2025, from January to September, the cumulative global softwood pulp shipments increased by 0.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative global broadleaf pulp shipments increased by 7.7% year - on - year. In September, pulp mills reduced inventories, but the overall inventory was still at a relatively high level compared to the same period, and the softwood pulp inventory pressure was higher than that of broadleaf pulp [16]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the pressure of overseas new - capacity release is expected to ease, and the global broadleaf pulp supply pressure may decrease marginally. The growth rate of broadleaf pulp shipments may slow down, while the softwood pulp may still see a slight increase in the short - term due to high inventory and rising shipments [17]. European Consumption and Inventory - European demand remained weak. In October, the consumption of softwood pulp in Europe was 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%; the consumption of broadleaf pulp was 562,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. In October, the inventory days at European pulp mills remained at a historical high, suppressing the pulp price. Most European ports' inventories decreased month - on - month in September, and the total European port inventory decreased by 4.39% month - on - month, but it was still at a relatively high level in recent years [21]. China's Pulp Imports - In 2025, the cumulative global pulp shipments increased slightly year - on - year. Due to weak demand in the European and American markets, China became the main destination for increased shipments. From January to October, China's cumulative pulp imports increased by 4.8% year - on - year. The increase in China's pulp imports mainly came from the rise in broadleaf pulp imports, and the total softwood pulp imports also increased, but the increase was relatively small [24][25]. - In 2026, with the recovery of the European economy, the proportion of trade pulp sent to China may decline. The import pressure of broadleaf pulp may decrease, and the increase in softwood pulp imports is also expected to be limited [25]. China's Port Inventories - In 2025, China's pulp port inventories remained at a high level for a long time, indicating an oversupply in the domestic pulp market. Downstream paper mills had low willingness to replenish raw material inventories and mainly made rigid - demand purchases. In November, the port inventory increased slightly, and the inventory pressure remained. The combined pulp inventory of Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Gaolan Port, Tianjin Port, and Baoding area in late November was about 2.0104 million tons, a 3.55% increase from the previous month [31]. China's Downstream Consumption - In recent years, the large - scale new - capacity addition in the domestic finished paper industry led to over - capacity and insufficient demand, squeezing the paper mills' profits. Some large enterprises limited or stopped production. In 2025, the new - capacity addition of white cardboard and offset paper still put pressure on their profits. Although a large amount of finished paper capacity was put into production, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the overall paper production did not increase significantly. From January to October, the total output of four major types of paper was 31.02 million tons, almost the same as last year. In the long - term, the planned new - capacity addition of paper is still large, and the pulp demand is expected to increase slightly next year. But if the terminal orders do not improve, the upside of the pulp price will be limited [34][35]. 2026 Pulp Market Outlook - Supply: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease, and the proportion of trade pulp sent to Europe may increase, alleviating China's import pressure. However, domestic broadleaf pulp new - capacity addition may bring more supply, and the overall domestic supply may remain relatively loose [50]. - Demand: Terminal demand is insufficient, and paper mills' operating rates are low. But the continuous expansion of paper capacity will create marginal incremental demand for pulp, which may support the pulp price to stabilize gradually. Next year, packaging paper and household paper are likely to be the main growth points [50]. - Strategy: In the short - term, the pulp market will fluctuate at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to long - position opportunities when the price is low [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall economic outlook is mixed, with most Fed districts reporting flat economic activity, some facing a risk of slowdown, and others showing slight growth or decline [8]. - The steel and ore market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - to long - term [11][13]. - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations [11]. - In the agricultural sector, different products have different trends, such as cotton in low - level oscillations, sugar under supply pressure, and eggs with high inventory and limited upside potential [26][28][29]. - In the energy and chemical industry, oil prices are in a long - term downward trend, and various products' prices follow different factors such as geopolitical events and supply - demand relationships [37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - information - China and the EU discussed semiconductor and other economic and trade issues, aiming to restore the semiconductor supply chain [6]. - Vanke faced a "double - kill" in stocks and bonds, and a bond展期 meeting will be held [6]. - Six departments issued a plan to boost consumer goods consumption, targeting specific consumption areas by 2027 [6]. - The Chinese non - ferrous metals association opposed zero or negative processing fees in copper smelting and managed copper smelting capacity [7]. - Treasury companies that hoarded cryptocurrencies suffered a "double - kill" in stock and coin prices [7]. - NVIDIA denied accounting fraud accusations [7]. - The Fed's economic activity was mostly flat, with some areas showing decline or growth, and the risk of slowdown increased [8]. - US economic data showed mixed results, including changes in jobless claims, durable goods orders [8][9]. - Japan's central bank may raise interest rates [8]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market had mixed performance, with military stocks falling and some concepts rising. Vanke's situation affected the market [10]. Treasury Futures - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations. Although there were sharp fluctuations, the short - term nature was high, considering factors like capital and fundamentals [11]. Steel and Ore - Short - term: expected to be volatile; Medium - to long - term: bearish. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for some plate products is okay. Supply may decline, and inventory is relatively high. Valuation shows that steel prices are likely to be weak [11][12][13]. Agriculture Cotton - Under the influence of large supply pressure and weak demand, it is in low - level oscillations, with high costs providing some support [26]. Sugar - Facing supply pressure, the price is under downward pressure, but cost provides a limit. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Eggs - The near - month futures contracts are under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds with caution. High inventory and weak consumption are the main factors, but there are positive expectations for the long - term [29][30]. Apples - Expected to be slightly bullish. The acquisition season has ended, and the market is now in the outbound stage. Prices are stable, and inventory and consumption need attention [31]. Corn - Pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price. The current rise is due to "supply - demand mismatch," and there may be a correction in the spot price [33]. Red Dates - Temporarily wait and see. The prices in production and sales areas are stable, and the futures price is weak [34]. Pigs - In the short - term, supply pressure increases, and the price is weak. In the long - term, the decline in the number of sows is positive for prices [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - In a long - term downward trend, it is advisable to short on rallies. Geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations affect the price [37]. Fuel Oil - The price fluctuates with the oil price. Supply is loose, and demand is flat. Geopolitical and macro factors are the main drivers [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to be weak and volatile due to large supply and weak demand, but production losses may provide some support [40]. Rubber - The price difference between ru and nr may widen. Pay attention to Southeast Asian weather and raw material supply [41]. Synthetic Rubber - The short - term price is weak. It is advisable to hold short - call strategies or short on rallies [42]. Methanol - Near - month contracts: temporarily weak and volatile; Far - month contracts: turn to a volatile trend. Pay attention to inventory and import arrivals [43][44]. Caustic Soda - Keep a volatile mindset. The spot price is weakening, and the futures price is controlled by bears [45]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase. Pay attention to the price bottom after the winter storage game [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - The price is adjusting strongly due to improved sentiment and supply - demand structure. Different products in the chain have different supply - demand situations [47]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The short - term bullish factors are fully realized, and the price may turn weak. It is affected by supply, demand, and oil price trends [48]. Paper Pulp - Enter a range - bound stage. It is advisable to wait and see. The fundamentals are stable, and supply and demand are in a weak balance [49][50]. Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish. The spot price is under pressure, and the market is expected to be in a weak supply - demand balance [51]. Urea - The spot price may be bullish, and the futures market may have short - term emotional trading. Keep a wide - range volatile mindset [52]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Hold short positions at high levels. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is affected by macro and inventory factors [18]. Lead - Hold short positions cautiously. The price is falling, and the inventory is decreasing. Import and export data show certain trends [19][20][21]. Lithium Carbonate - In wide - range fluctuations. The short - term is affected by the game between weak fundamentals and long - term optimistic expectations [22]. Industrial Silicon - Continue to oscillate. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the adjustment space is limited [23]. Polysilicon - Continue to oscillate. Buy on dips. The supply - demand contradiction is weaker than the policy expectation contradiction [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The supply side shows that Chile's Arauco company's October quotes for coniferous pulp Silver Star decreased by $20/ton, while quotes for broadleaf pulp Star remained flat, and quotes for natural pulp Venus also remained flat. The demand side indicates that recent price - increase letters for pulp - made paper have been issued, with only white cardboard having good implementation results, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the second batch of price - increase letters for offset paper. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory at China's mainstream pulp ports was 2173000 tons, a 3.0% increase from the previous period, showing a continuous two - week inventory accumulation [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 25, 2025, SP2601 was 5212 yuan/ton, down 0.15% day - on - day and 3.62% week - on - week; SP2512 was 4724 yuan/ton, up 0.25% day - on - day and down 3.55% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5272 yuan/ton, down 0.11% day - on - day and 2.55% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 25, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 2.70% week - on - week; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5170 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 4.26% week - on - week; the price of broadleaf pulp Golden Needle was 4400 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week [6]. - **Foreign Market Quotes**: The October quote for Chile's Silver Star was $680/ton, down $20/ton; the quote for Star was $540/ton, unchanged; the quote for Venus was $590/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chile's Silver Star was 5559 yuan/ton, down 2.83% month - on - month; the import cost of Chile's Venus was 4830 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 691000 tons (unchanged month - on - month), and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 1318000 tons, down 2.80% month - on - month [6]. - **Domestic Production**: The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in the period from November 6 to November 20, 2025 [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 2173000 tons, up 63000 tons from the previous period, a 3.0% increase; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 209000 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also fluctuated during the period from November 6 to November 20, 2025 [6]. 3.3 Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 25, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 446, with a quantile level of 0.946; the Silver Star basis was 676, with a quantile level of 0.895 [6]. - **Import Profit**: On November 25, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 159, with a quantile level of 0.378; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 56, with a quantile level of 0.705 [6].

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the Brent 01 contract rising 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. Supply and demand face greater inventory accumulation expectations in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains. Focus on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuelan geopolitical risk [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals rose. As several Fed officials advocated a December rate cut, the implied rate cut probability in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [2] Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated. LME copper rose with precious metals at the end of the session. The domestic spot market has a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased by 0.8 million tons on Monday. The aluminum price may continue to adjust, with support around 21,100 yuan [4] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It will operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it will continue to follow the aluminum price, with the possibility of a narrowing spread with AL [6] Zinc - Domestic and overseas mine TC continued to decline. SHFE zinc oscillated in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The external demand supports zinc consumption, but the domestic demand is expected to weaken [7] Lead - SHFE lead oscillated in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The export of lead-acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rebounded, and stainless steel inventory decreased. However, the short-term contradiction lies in the macro level, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9] Tin - LME tin closed higher, and SHFE tin oscillated at high levels. It is still advisable to short, and at the same time, match with out-of-the-money call options to hedge risks [10] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened low and moved lower. The market is highly divergent, and risk control should be prioritized [11] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak. The futures price will maintain an oscillating pattern [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. It will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated strongly overnight. The fundamentals are marginally looser, and the price is expected to oscillate [15] Coke - The coke price oscillated. It may oscillate weakly [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated weakly. It may oscillate weakly [17] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon price oscillated. The bottom support is expected to move down [18] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22] Group 2: Chemicals Urea - Urea supply remains sufficient. The market may return to a stalemate [23] Methanol - The methanol futures rose sharply. It is advisable to try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices [24] Pure Benzene - It is advisable to continue the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [25] Styrene - The supply and demand of styrene are in a tight balance, but the support from the cost and demand sides is questionable [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The market lacks guidance. Polyethylene supply pressure increases, and polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may follow the cost. Caustic soda will operate weakly [28] PX and PTA - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production. PTA is driven by cost [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price has a short-term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip is cost-driven [31] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Niña on South American soybean production [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate in the short term. Palm oil is weaker [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market focuses on Australian seeds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [37] Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38] Corn - The corn futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39] Live Hogs - The far-month hog futures rose, and the near-month is weak. The price may form a double bottom [40] Eggs - The number of newly laid hens is expected to decrease in December. Pay attention to the spot price [41] Cotton - The cotton futures may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see [42] Sugar - The international sugar supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the production in India, Thailand, and Guangxi [43] Apples - The apple futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory removal [44] Wood - The wood futures oscillated. It is advisable to wait and see [45] Pulp - The pulp futures fell slightly. It is advisable to wait and see [46] Group 4: Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - A-shares rose in a shrinking volume. The short-term macro liquidity is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [47] Treasury Bond Futures - The treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly [48] Group 5: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European route index rose sharply. The 02 contract may maintain a discount [20]

行业 能源化工周报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油、沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 | ⇒ 原油 . | | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly. The current futures price is close to the import cost of the deliverable product, and there is limited room for further price increases. It is recommended to close the 12 - 1 reverse spread and initiate a 1 - 3 or 1 - 5 reverse spread [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 20, 2025, SP2601 was priced at 5298, down 1.82% daily and 4.26% weekly; SP2512 was 4786, down 1.48% daily and 2.13% weekly; SP2605 was 5340, down 1.07% daily and 2.94% weekly [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5500, down 0.90% daily and weekly; Russian Needle was 5350, down 0.93% daily and weekly; Hardwood pulp Golden Crown was 4400, unchanged [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was quoted at 680 dollars, down 2.86% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged [5]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In October 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, unchanged from September; hardwood pulp was 131.8 tons, down 2.80% from September. The pulp shipment volume to China was 187 tons, up 13.50% [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 217.3 tons, up 3.0% from the previous period, showing a continuous two - week inventory accumulation [5][10]. - **Demand**: Among finished paper products, the production of double - offset paper, copperplate paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed minor fluctuations, with only white cardboard having a better price increase implementation and stable production [5][10]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 20, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 564, with a quantile level of 0.965; the Silver Star basis was 714, with a quantile level of 0.919 [5]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 59, with a quantile level of 0.515; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 56, with a quantile level of 0.704 [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content was provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly. The current futures price is close to the import cost of the deliverable, and there is limited room for further increase. Consider closing the 12 - 1 reverse spread and initiating a 1 - 3 or 1 - 5 reverse spread [5][10] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 19, 2025, SP2601 was 5396, down 0.22% day - on - day and 1.57% week - on - week; SP2512 was 4858, down 0.29% day - on - day and 0.61% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5398, down 0.22% day - on - day and 1.46% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On November 19, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5550, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian coniferous pulp was 5400, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Golden Fish was 4400, unchanged [5] - **Outer - Market Quotes**: In November 2025, the outer - market quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars, down 2.86% from the previous period; Brazilian Golden Fish was 530 dollars, up 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Golden Fish was 4344, up 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The domestic production of broadleaf pulp on November 13, 2025, was 22.9 tons; chemimechanical pulp was 23.6 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211 tons, up 6.1% from the previous period; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.2 tons [5] - **Demand**: As of November 13, 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.90 tons; coated paper was 8.30 tons; tissue paper was 28.48 tons; white cardboard was 36.20 tons [5] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 19, 2025, the Russian coniferous pulp basis was 542, with a quantile level of 0.961; the Silver Star basis was 692, with a quantile level of 0.908 [5] - **Import Profit**: On November 19, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 9, with a quantile level of 0.594; broadleaf pulp Golden Fish was 56, with a quantile level of 0.704 [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pulp fundamentals show no significant improvement, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for 2026 needle pulp. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high - quality needle pulp. The current futures price is close to the import cost of delivery products, with limited room for further increase. Consider closing the 12 - 1 reverse spread and initiating 1 - 3 or 1 - 5 reverse spreads [11]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 18, 2025, SP2601 was 5408, down 1.21% day - on - day and 1.39% week - on - week; SP2512 was 4872, down 0.53% day - on - day and up 0.04% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5410, down 1.13% day - on - day and 1.06% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 18, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5550, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian needle pulp was 5400, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4400, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.46% week - on - week [6]. - **Foreign Offers**: In November 2025, the offer of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 2.86% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6]. Supply - **Imports**: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month [6]. - **Domestic Production**: On November 13, 2025, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 22.9 tons, and chemical mechanical pulp was 23.6 tons [6]. - **Shipments to China**: In September 2025, the shipment volume of pulp to China was 187 tons, up 13.50% [6]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 211.0 tons, up 6.1% from the previous period, changing from narrow - range de - stocking to high - level stocking [6][11]. - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: On November 13, 2025, the inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 22.2 tons [6]. Demand - **Finished Paper Production**: In November 2025, the production of double - coated paper was 20.90 tons, copper - plate paper was 8.30 tons, tissue paper was 28.48 tons, and white cardboard was 36.20 tons [6]. Valuation - **Basis**: On November 18, 2025, the basis of Russian needle pulp was 528, with a quantile level of 0.957; Silver Star was 678, with a quantile level of 0.895 [6]. - **Import Profit**: On November 18, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 9, with a quantile level of 0.594; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 56, with a quantile level of 0.704 [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for needle pulp in 2026. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high - quality needle pulp. The current futures price is close to the import cost of the delivery product, so there is limited room for further price increases. It is recommended to close the 12 - 1 reverse spread and initiate a 1 - 3 or 1 - 5 reverse spread [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 17, 2025, SP2601 was 5474 with a daily decrease of 0.11% and a weekly increase of 0.11%; SP2512 was 4898 with a daily decrease of 0.04% and a weekly increase of 0.53%; SP2605 was 5472 with a daily increase of 0.18% and a weekly increase of 0.37% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On the same day, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5550 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.91%; Russian needle pulp was 5400 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 5.88%; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4400 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 3.53% [6]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In November 2025, the quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 2.86%; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.54%; broad - leaf pulp was 135.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 187 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.50% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211 tons, a 6.1% increase from the previous period. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.2 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper showed different trends. For example, the production of double - offset paper, copper - plate paper, and other products fluctuated slightly in different periods [6]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 17, 2025, the Russian needle pulp basis was 502 with a quantile level of 0.952; the Silver Star basis was 652 with a quantile level of 0.881 [6]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 9 with a quantile level of 0.594; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 56 with a quantile level of 0.704 [6].