国泰海通｜新消费再梳理 20250511 摘要 • 新消费领域，新品驱动型公司如已成、正康口腔和景博生物，以及稳定高 增长标的如润本股份、完美生物、毛戈平和巨子生物值得关注，这些公司 通过不断推出新品或原有品类保证 30%以上的增长，股价表现更具弹性和 持续性。 • 食品饮料板块，关注百龙创源（食品添加剂，2025 年业绩增长最佳）、 盐津铺子（魔芋制品）、三只松鼠，以及传统成长股东鹏特饮、燕京啤酒 和确定性较强的青岛啤酒、农夫山泉。白酒板块预计 2025 下半年至 2026 上半年逐步见底，下行风险不大。 • 高中教育板块存在投资机会，政策变化推动高中入学比例提升，行业景气 度高，民办高中和教培公司快速扩张。港股天利国际控股和 A 股学大教育 估值相对较低，具有较大的投资潜力。 • 情绪价值消费领域集中在潮玩和黄金珠宝两个高景气度领域，国潮黄金珠 宝增速超出市场预期，且边际仍在向上，但估值与一般增速公司相当，具 有较好的投资价值。 Q&A 新消费领域未来的投资方向有哪些？ 新消费领域未来的投资方向主要集中在以下几个方面： i. 美护和零食：2025 年被视为美护大年，美护板块将带领新消费板块崛起。 重点关注 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a steady increase in domestic tourism during the May Day holiday, with 314 million domestic trips made, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.4%. Total spending reached 180.3 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer spending [5][16] - The toy industry, particularly Mattel, reported a net sales figure of 827 million USD in Q1 2025, reflecting a 2.1% year-on-year increase, despite a net loss of 40.3 million USD due to rising sales and management costs [24][29] - The tea beverage sector is experiencing a surge in new product launches, with 95 new products introduced in April 2025, a 55.74% increase from the previous month. Fruit tea remains the market leader, while fruit and vegetable juice has emerged as a strong contender [6][31] - The fragrance market in China is growing, with the launch of the "Wen Dao Dong Fang" perfume series by Mao Geping, which includes 13 new scents. The market size is projected to grow from 5.42 billion yuan in 2015 to 14.84 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 11.8% [7][49] Summary by Sections Travel and Tourism - During the May Day holiday, domestic tourism saw 314 million trips, a 6.4% increase year-on-year, with total spending of 180.3 billion yuan, up 8% [5][16] - The average travel radius for domestic tourists increased by 4.7% to 196.48 kilometers, while the average recreational radius at destinations rose by 31.8% to 22.15 kilometers [20][21] Toys and Entertainment - Mattel's Q1 2025 net sales reached 827 million USD, a 2.1% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 49.4%. However, the company reported a net loss of 40.3 million USD due to increased costs [24][29] - The sales of vehicle and action figure categories showed significant growth, with a 4% increase in vehicle sales to 309 million USD and a 12% increase in action figures to 193 million USD [24][28] Beverage Industry - The tea beverage sector introduced 95 new products in April 2025, with fruit tea leading the market with 34.74% of new launches, followed by fruit and vegetable juice at 15.69% [31][34] - The "Lucky Coffee" brand under Mixue is rapidly expanding, with over 5,400 stores nationwide and a significant increase in average store revenue [38][40] Fragrance Market - The Chinese fragrance market is projected to grow significantly, with the launch of Mao Geping's new perfume series. The market size is expected to increase from 54.2 billion yuan in 2015 to 148.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 11.8% [49][50] - The market remains dominated by international brands, with domestic brands like Ice City holding only a 1.1% market share [49][53] Market Performance - The social services index increased by 1.12% from May 6 to May 9, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.88 percentage points, ranking 25th among 31 sectors [66][68] - The Hong Kong consumer services index rose by 5.06%, outperforming the Hang Seng index by 3.45 percentage points, ranking first among 30 sectors [82][86]

新消费估值体系抬升，出口链关税缓和预期强化 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 11 日 证券研究报告 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 骆峥 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525020001 邮 箱： luozheng1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 新消费估值体系抬升，出口链关税缓和预期强 化 行业研究 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 3 ➢ 消费：布鲁可发布变形金刚等新品，卡游推出 EVA 卡牌，润本山姆渠 道增量显著。本周布鲁可发布变形金刚星辰版第 3 弹，创新 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - Overall consumer demand remains stable in Q1 2025, with a recommendation to pay attention to subsequent national consumption stimulus policies [4] - The beauty and personal care sector showed a mixed performance, with the personal care segment performing the best [9][10] - The textile and apparel sector maintained stable growth, with outdoor brands performing well [18][21] Summary by Relevant Sections Beauty and Personal Care Sector - In Q1 2025, the retail sales of cosmetics in China grew by 3.2% year-on-year, lower than the overall consumer goods retail sales growth of 4.6% [5][6] - The beauty sector's revenue and net profit reached 13.5 billion and 1.89 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.2% and -12.3% [9][10] - The cosmetics segment saw a revenue of 9.62 billion, down 3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.06 billion, down 20.7% [10] - The medical beauty segment's revenue was 2.43 billion, down 0.2%, with a net profit of 0.71 billion, down 0.5% [10] - The personal care segment achieved a revenue of 1.45 billion, up 29.4%, and a net profit of 0.13 billion, up 12.6% [10] Textile and Apparel Sector - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles grew by 3.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, below the overall consumer goods retail sales growth of 4.6% [13][18] - The textile and apparel sector's revenue and net profit saw year-on-year changes of +1.66% and -10.72% respectively [18] - The OEM segment's revenue grew by 13.02% year-on-year, while the brand segment's revenue decreased by 3.90% [19][21] - The home textile segment's revenue decreased by 3.98% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 12.35% [21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Marubi Biotechnology (丸美生物) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment appears positive based on the performance metrics and growth projections. Core Insights - Marubi Biotechnology reported a revenue of 2.97 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 33.4%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 342 million yuan, up 31.7% year-over-year [1] - The company is experiencing continuous growth driven by both product innovation and technological advancements, positioning itself as a leader in the collagen industry [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.97 billion yuan and a net profit of 342 million yuan, with a significant increase in net profit margin [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 847 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 28% [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 74.6% in 2024, with a further increase to 76% in Q1 2025 [4] Product and Brand Development - The product structure is continuously optimized, with skincare, eye care, cleansing, and beauty products generating revenues of 1.125 billion, 689 million, 241 million, and 913 million yuan respectively in 2024 [2] - The eye care segment saw significant growth, particularly with the "胜肽小红笔眼霜" product, which achieved an online GMV of 533 million yuan, up 146% year-over-year [2] Sales Channels - Online sales accounted for 25.41 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 35.8% year-over-year, while offline sales reached 4.27 billion yuan, up 20.8% [3] - The online sales proportion increased to 86%, indicating a strong digital presence and effective multi-platform strategies [3] Cost Management and Efficiency - The company maintained stable expense ratios across sales, management, and R&D, with a sales expense ratio of 55% in 2024 [4] - Inventory turnover days improved to approximately 90.2 days in 2024, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [4] Future Projections - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 450 million yuan in 2025, 582 million yuan in 2026, and 692 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a consistent growth trajectory [8] - The expected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 38.9X, 30.1X, and 25.3X respectively, suggesting a favorable valuation outlook [6]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.12%, gaining 26 points to close at 21,998 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.81% with a trading volume of HKD 97.3 billion in the morning session [1] - Ant Group plans to invest HKD 28.14 billion to acquire a controlling stake in Yau Tat Securities, leading to a surge in Alibaba-related stocks, with Yau Tat Securities rising by 20% and Alibaba Health increasing by 6% [1] - Meituan-W saw a morning increase of 3.82%, as institutions expect the competition landscape in the food delivery industry to remain stable, suggesting long-term value release for the platform [1] - Longjiang Life Science (00775) rose over 9% after showcasing various cancer vaccine data at AACR 2025 [1] - Horizon Robotics-W (09660) also increased by over 9% following a strategic partnership with Denso, with institutions indicating a positive outlook for the industry chain [1] Group 2 - Zai Lab (09911) increased by 6.48%, driven by significant growth in social business revenue in Q1, and the company is exploring overseas acquisition opportunities [2] - Lao Pu Gold (06181) rose over 6%, as institutions noted that fixed-price gold products benefit from the rising gold prices [3] - Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) surged by 8%, reaching a new historical high, with institutions optimistic about the long-term growth potential of the beauty care sector [4] - Tigermed (03347) fell over 2% post-earnings, with Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by nearly 30%, although there is still room for improvement in gross margin [4] - Qingdao Beer Co., Ltd. (00168) dropped by 3.7% post-earnings, despite a 7.08% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1 [4] - Longyuan Power (00916) declined over 6% post-earnings, with Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 21.82% and wind power segment revenue down by 1.89% [4] - Rongchang Bio (09995) fell by 8.21% post-earnings, despite nearly 60% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1, with losses narrowing to CNY 254 million [4]

Investment Rating - Investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a robust growth in the tourism sector during the May Day holiday, with a significant increase in cross-regional travel demand and a notable rise in high-end hotel bookings [14][20] - The report indicates a strong performance in the trendy toy market, with a 39% year-on-year increase in the number of offline stores and a 17% increase in average store efficiency [27][28] - The Chinese restaurant market, particularly the Chinese noodle shop segment, is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.6% from 2024 to 2029 [34] - The service robotics market is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected market size of 97 billion by 2028, driven by advancements in AI technology and increasing demand for efficient service [44][48] - The domestic beauty market is seeing a trend towards high-end products, with significant upgrades in product formulations and technology [50][51] Summary by Sections 1. Travel and Tourism - The May Day holiday is expected to see a peak in travel demand, with an estimated daily cross-regional flow of over 270 million people [14] - Domestic flight ticket prices have decreased, leading to a 29% increase in search interest among price-sensitive university students [18] - The trend of travel consumption is shifting towards lower-tier cities, with a 25% increase in tourism heat compared to higher-tier cities [18] 2. Trendy Toys - As of March 2025, the number of offline trendy toy stores reached 3,645, marking a 39% year-on-year growth [27] - The average store efficiency for trendy toy stores increased by 17% year-on-year, with significant variations among brands [28] 3. Restaurant Industry - The Chinese noodle shop market is projected to reach a total transaction value of 495.6 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.6% from 2024 to 2029 [34] - The company "Encounter Small Noodles" achieved a revenue of 1.154 billion in 2024, reflecting a 44.2% year-on-year growth [37] 4. Service Robotics - The service robotics market in China is expected to grow from 30 billion in 2023 to 97 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 26.5% [44][48] - The hotel sector is the largest segment within the service robotics market, projected to reach 36 billion by 2028 [45] 5. Beauty Industry - The beauty market is experiencing a shift towards high-end products, with significant upgrades in formulations and technology [50] - The "Giant Biological" brand launched an upgraded collagen stick, which has seen a 32% year-on-year growth in sales [51]