| II C 国贸期货 | 日度 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2026/ | 财究院:李洋包 | 给陪言:日02519 | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品种 | 上半周股指强势上行,周中随着政策给市场的投机情绪"降温 | 提高融资资金比例、中央汇金大量卖出宽基指数ETF, 股指震 | | | 設指 | 荡调整。策略上,政策的调控在于主张股指、慢牛"而非打压市 | 左观金融 | 场,短期的震荡调整空间预计不大,长线多头可择机布局。88 | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,近期关注 | 国债 | 農汤 | 日本央行利率决策。 | 下游需求相对承压,而随着美国暂缓对关键矿产征税,短期抢铜 | | | | 震荡 | 担忧有所缓解,铜价趋于高位震荡运行。 | 近期产业驱动有限,而宏观情绪有所转弱,铝价高位回落。 | 農汤 | | | | | 国内氧化铝供强需弱,产业面偏弱、价格承压、但当前价格基本 | 氧化铝 | Holi | 处于成本线附近, ...

经济观察网 近日，市场监管总局发布2025年能源计量审查情况通报。通报显示，市场监管总局组织各 地市场监管部门聚焦有色金属、纺织印染、建筑建材、石油化工、煤化工、能源、钢铁、交通、造纸、 数据中心、公共机构等11类重点行业，对7480家重点用能单位开展能源计量审查，其中7084家符合要 求，占比94.71%。 通过审查，企业能源计量意识显著增强，计量在节能减排、提质增效中的基础作用进一步发挥。审查过 程中，各地市场监管部门不断创新审查方式，利用信息化手段提升审查精准度，坚持监管与服务并重， 同步开展培训宣贯和技术帮扶，并与相关部门协作，共同推进审查结果运用。审查中也发现部分用能单 位在落实能源计量主体责任、健全管理制度等方面仍有提升空间，一些中小企业对能源计量的重视程度 有待加强，计量器具管理仍需进一步规范。 ...

宏观日报 | 2026-01-20 中游分化，关注下游消费释放 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）据中国航空发动机集团19日发文，1月15日至16日，中国航发"太行7"燃气轮机创新发展示范项目、 "太行15"燃气轮机创新发展示范项目、"太行110"重型燃气轮机创新发展示范项目成功完成国家能源局燃气轮机创 新发展示范项目评估验收。将有力带动我国燃气轮机行业产业化、商业化发展。 服务行业：1）1月18日，海南自由贸易港全岛封关运作迎来"满月"。据海口海关统计，自2025年12月18日至2026 年1月17日，海口海关共监管离岛免税购物金额48.6亿元，同比增长46.8%；购物人数74.5万人次，同比增长30.2%； 购物件数349.4万件，同比增长14.6%。消费者购物热情高涨，充分展现出离岛免税市场的澎湃活力。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）有色：铜价格小幅回落。2）农业：鸡蛋、猪肉价格回升。3）化工：PTA价格回落。 中游：1）化工：PX、尿素开工持续高位。2）能源：电厂耗煤量低位。 下游：1）地产：二线城市商品房销售季节性回升。2）服务：国内航班班次小幅回落。 风险 经济政策超预期，全 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index is expected to continue its volatile consolidation, with the performance of the stock index futures differentiating. The market sentiment is affected by various factors such as high - level stocks and regulatory policies [20][21]. - In the agricultural product sector, the supply of protein meal still has pressure, the international sugar market is weak, the oil and fat sector maintains a volatile trend, and the prices of different agricultural products are affected by factors like supply and demand, weather, and policies [24][27][32]. - In the black metal sector, the steel price is likely to maintain a volatile trend before the Spring Festival, and the double - coke and iron ore are expected to run weakly, while the ferro - alloy has strong bottom support [55][59][61]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, precious metals like gold and silver reach new highs due to the escalation of disputes between the US and Europe, and the prices of other non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as geopolitics, supply and demand, and inventory [70][71][79]. - In the shipping sector, the container shipping market is in a low - season, and the freight rate is controversial. The market is waiting for new drivers [113]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the crude oil market is in a stalemate, and the prices of other chemical products are affected by factors such as raw material prices, supply and demand, and geopolitics [117][120]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index shows differentiation. After a slight decline in the opening, it fluctuated higher. The performance of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes was strong. The stock index futures also showed differentiation. The future market is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [17][20][21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility, box operation, grid operation for single - side trading; IM\IC long 2606 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; double - selling strategy for options [21]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - **Supply and Demand**: The overall supply and demand of US soybeans are relatively loose, and the domestic soybean meal cost side still has pressure. Although the short - term supply may decline and the demand is good, there is still pressure in the medium and long term [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - side thinking for single - side trading; MRM spread widening for arbitrage; selling wide - straddle strategy for options [24]. 3.2.2 Sugar - **Market Condition**: The international sugar market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, and the domestic sugar price is weakly following. The cost side provides some support, but there is also sales pressure [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe for the domestic short - term main contract; observe for arbitrage; sell put options [27]. 3.2.3 Oil and Fat Sector - **Market Trend**: The market is expected to continue to fluctuate, with no obvious trend. The supply of rapeseed may increase, and the palm oil is in the production - reduction period [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - throw and low - suck interval operation for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage and options [32]. 3.2.4 Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Situation**: The US corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and the domestic corn spot price is stable in the short term but has pressure in the long term. The futures price is oscillating at a high level [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish thinking for the outer - market 03 corn after stabilization; short - term long for the 07 corn after correction; do long the 05 corn - starch spread when it is low for arbitrage [36]. 3.2.5 Live Pigs - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of live pigs is gradually increasing, and the overall price is declining. The overall inventory is high, and the supply pressure exists [37][38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - side thinking for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage; sell wide - straddle strategy for options [39]. 3.2.6 Peanuts - **Market Status**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The import volume decreases, and the oil mill has profits [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long the 05 peanut when it is low for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage; sell pk603 - C - 8200 options [41]. 3.2.7 Eggs - **Market Analysis**: The demand for eggs has improved, and the price is stable with a slight increase. The supply is in the process of capacity reduction, but the upward space of the 03 contract is limited [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long the 5 - far - month contract when it is low for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage and options [45]. 3.2.8 Apples - **Market Condition**: The cold - storage inventory of apples is low, and the price is firm. The cost of warehouse receipts is high, and the demand is acceptable. The 5 - month contract price may rise if the demand remains normal [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Partially take profits for the long position of the 5 - month contract; go short the 10 - month contract when it is high; do long the 5 - month contract and short the 10 - month contract for arbitrage [49]. 3.2.9 Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Trend**: The cotton sales progress is fast, and the downstream stocking willingness increases. The cotton price is expected to oscillate in a short - term range [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [52]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Situation**: The demand for steel has support, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate before the Spring Festival. The market sentiment and raw material prices affect the price [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: The steel price may be under pressure in the volatile market; short the coil - coal ratio when it is high and hold the short position of the coil - screw spread for arbitrage; observe for options [56]. 3.3.2 Double - Coking - **Market Analysis**: The supply of double - coking is relatively loose, and it is expected to run weakly with oscillations. The Mongolian coal supply and the downstream inventory - building situation affect the price [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [59]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - **Market Condition**: The market expectation of iron ore is repeated, and the price is running weakly. The supply is loose, and the demand is expected to decline [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Run weakly for single - side trading [62]. 3.3.4 Ferro - Alloy - **Market Status**: After adjustment, the ferro - alloy has strong bottom support. The supply of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon may decline, and the demand has support. The cost is relatively stable [64][65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider it as a long - position variety when it is low for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage; sell put options when it is high [68]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - **Market Trend**: Due to the escalation of disputes between the US and Europe, gold and silver reach new highs. The short - term performance of silver is more volatile, and gold is relatively more stable [70][71][72]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the long position of Shanghai gold against the 5 - day moving average; take profits for Shanghai silver conservatively or hold the long position cautiously for aggressive investors; do long the outer - market and short the inner - market for arbitrage; bullish call spread strategy for options [72][73]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - **Market Analysis**: The oscillation range of platinum and palladium converges. Platinum has stronger upward driving force, and the policy uncertainty still exists [74][75]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long platinum when it is low for single - side trading; observe for palladium; observe for arbitrage and options [75]. 3.4.3 Copper - **Market Condition**: The short - term volatility of copper increases, and the long - term upward trend remains. The geopolitics, inventory, and consumption affect the price [77][79]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to profit protection and control positions for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage and options [80]. 3.4.4 Alumina - **Market Status**: Alumina is expected to run weakly. The increase in warehouse receipts and the downward trend of cost put pressure on the price [83]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage and options [84]. 3.4.5 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Analysis**: The risk - aversion sentiment rises again, and the aluminum price stabilizes. The geopolitics, tariff policy, and inventory affect the price [86]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price stabilizes and rebounds for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage and options [87]. 3.4.6 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Condition**: The market sentiment is repeated, and it stabilizes with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which supports the price [89]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided [89]. 3.4.7 Zinc - **Market Analysis**: The price of zinc is affected by capital sentiment. The short - term price may return to the fundamental situation, with a downward pressure and then an interval oscillation [91][93]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the support at 17000 - 17200 and go long lightly when it is low for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage and options [93]. 3.4.8 Lead - **Market Status**: The price of lead is affected by capital sentiment. Similar to zinc, it may run weakly and then oscillate in an interval [95]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the support at 17000 - 17200 and go long lightly when it is low for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage and options [95]. 3.4.9 Nickel - **Market Analysis**: The nickel price adjusts with non - ferrous metals. The regulatory attitude is stable, and the long - term trend of non - ferrous metals is positive [97]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the overall atmosphere of the non - ferrous metal sector for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage and options [98]. 3.4.10 Stainless Steel - **Market Condition**: Stainless steel follows the nickel price. The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the supply is tight. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [100]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the nickel price for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage [101]. 3.4.11 Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: Due to the sudden supply reduction news, the price is expected to be strong in the short term. The supply is expected to decrease, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [102]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close the short position and go long when it is low for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage and options [103]. 3.4.12 Polysilicon - **Market Status**: The price is weakly stable. The actual transaction price may be the key to the disk. It is recommended to observe in the short term [104]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe [104]. 3.4.13 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Analysis**: The price is running at a high level. The market may turn from inventory - building to de - stocking, and it is necessary to pay attention to the support level after the volatility decreases [107]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the volatility to return to the normal level for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [108]. 3.4.14 Tin - **Market Condition**: Due to the increasing risk of trade friction between Europe and the United States, the tin price rises with non - ferrous metals. The supply and demand situation and geopolitical risks need to be concerned [109][110]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the impact of trade friction on the tin price for single - side trading; observe for options [111]. 3.5 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is in the process of peaking and falling. The market has different views on the strength of the upcoming peak - shipping season. The long - term recovery of the European line is still difficult. It is recommended to observe for single - side trading and do long the 6 - 10 spread when it is low for arbitrage [113][114][115]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector 3.6.1 Crude Oil - **Market Situation**: The trading is light, and the market is in a stalemate. The international oil price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to observe for arbitrage and options [117]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate widely for single - side trading [117]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - **Market Analysis**: The raw material premium rises, and the asphalt is expected to oscillate at a high level. The supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to observe for options [120]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate at a high level for single - side trading; pay attention to the BU4 - 6 positive spread for arbitrage [121]. 3.6.3 Fuel Oil - **Market Status**: The cost is oscillating, and the supply rhythm of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil needs to be concerned. The price may be volatile due to geopolitical factors. It is recommended to observe for options [122][123][124]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly, be vigilant about geopolitical risks for single - side trading; pay attention to the FU59 positive spread for arbitrage [124]. 3.6.4 Natural Gas - **Market Analysis**: The TTF/JKM price falls from a high level, and the HH rebounds after an over - decline. The short - term price is affected by weather and geopolitics, and the long - term price center may move down. It is recommended to observe for arbitrage [126][127][128]. - **Trading Strategy**: Continue to hold the short position of TTF and JKM in the third quarter, add positions aggressively for single - side trading; long - term roll - selling of out - of - the - money call options for TTF or JKM [128]. 3.6.5 LPG - **Market Condition**: The chemical demand is marginally weakening. The cost support weakens, and the supply increases slightly while the demand decreases slightly. The price may be under pressure [129]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage and options [129]. 3.6.6 PX&PTA - **Market Analysis**: The polyester production cut increases, and the load decreases rapidly. The PX supply is high, and the PTA is affected by the cost and downstream demand. It is recommended to observe for arbitrage and options [132]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided [132]. 3.6.7 BZ&EB - **Market Status**: The pure benzene is expected to have a supply reduction, and the styrene has an inventory - de - stocking expectation. The price of pure benzene may be strong, and the styrene inventory is expected to decrease. It is recommended to observe for arbitrage and options [134][136]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly for single - side trading [136]. 3.6.8 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Analysis**: The seasonal inventory - building is obvious. The supply is stable, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to observe for arbitrage [137]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly for single - side trading; sell call options [138]. 3.6.9 Short - Fiber - **Market Condition**: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand is weakening. The load may decrease, and the downstream is bearish. It is recommended to observe the implementation of the Spring Festival production - cut plan [140]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided [140]. 3.6.10 Bottle Chips - **Market Analysis**: The maintenance is accelerating. The production is expected to decrease, and the replenishment momentum may slow down. It is recommended to observe for arbitrage and options [142][144]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate widely for single - side trading [144]. 3.6.11 Propylene - **Market Status**: The supply pressure is relieved. The supply improvement is limited, and the production enterprise has a

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中华人民共和国商务部与加拿大外交、贸易和发展部(以下并称"双方")欢迎两国取得的积极进展，包括 同意在中加新型战略伙伴关系框架下构建健康、稳定、可持续的经贸关系。 双方认识到继续提升双向贸易与投资水平、在双方乐见且可行的领域深化经济合作的重要意义。 双方确认保持机制化接触对促进积极势头、有效应对挑战具有重要作用。 为此，双方致力于落实两国领导人达成的重要经贸共识，承诺将以本路线图指导以下领域合作： 一、加强经贸联委会 (一)双方承诺强化由中华人民共和国商务部与加拿大外交、贸易和发展部牵头的经贸联委会，继续将其 作为促进两国经贸合作、解决经贸分歧的主渠道。 (二)双方承诺将经贸联委会升格为由贸易部长牵头的机制，至少每年举行一次会议，并根据需要不定期 召开会议。会议可由副部长级官员主持，并可视情邀请其他部门专家与会。 (三)双方承诺切实发挥直接向经贸联委会报告的工作组的作用。 (四)双方承诺于2026年夏季或秋季在加拿大线下召开经济伙伴关系工作组会议。 中国和加拿大领导人在2026年1月卡尼总理访华期间就一系列重要经贸问题达成共识。 (五)双方承诺重启知识产权工作组，并通过磋商争取就贸易救济工作组职责范围达成共识 ...

当极端天气按下大宗商品"波动键"20260119 摘要 当前为弱拉尼娜事件，预计 2026 年 3 月结束转为中性，但全球变暖背 景下，预计不会出现大范围冷冬，局部地区或有阶段性寒潮。太阳黑子 周期下行期可能加剧极端天气风险，频繁切换拉尼娜和厄尔尼诺现象。 2026 年 3 月后转为中性，7 月起厄尔尼诺转换概率上升，11 月接近 60%，冬季厄尔尼诺影响不容小觑。南美大豆丰产预期增强，美豆价格 预计维持在 1,000-1,150 美分/蒲式耳区间，难突破上限。 弱拉尼娜对棕榈油产量影响小，马来西亚产量恢复。短期关注需求和高 库存去化，上半年看涨。若冬季出现强厄尔尼诺，可能导致棕榈果减产， 影响在 2027 年显现。 国内小麦因延迟播种面临生长压力，寒潮和春季干旱风险提高丰产难度， 减产预期可能推升 2026 年 4-5 月新麦上市价格，并与玉米形成共振， 预计玉米价格震荡上行。 欧美天然气市场受气温影响大，2026 年美国 11 月偏冷但 12 月回暖， 未形成稳定冷冬局面。欧洲库存偏低，但实际消费同比负增长，荷兰 TDF 气价中枢下移，旺季涨价空间低于预期。 Q&A 2026 年及未来三到五年的天气展望有 ...

冯飞代表海南省委省政府感谢广东对海南经济社会发展的全方位支持。他表示，此次海南省党政代表团 赴广东学习考察，见证了广东科技创新实力、经济发展活力以及产业结构韧性，深切感受到广东走在前 列干事创业的非凡气象和经济社会发展取得的卓越成就。近年来，广东经济实力、科技实力、综合实力 跃上新台阶，续写了经济快速发展和社会长期稳定两大奇迹的广东新篇章，让我们深感震撼、深受启 发。衷心感谢广东对海南自由贸易港建设的鼎力相助，对推动两地相向发展的战略部署，对深化两地产 业合作的铺路搭桥，对提升海南公共服务和应急救灾能力的无私驰援。"十五五"时期推动广东海南相向 发展、推动粤港澳大湾区与海南自由贸易港联动发展，意义重大。海南将深入贯彻落实习近平总书记在 听取海南自由贸易港建设工作汇报时的重要讲话精神，进一步深化同广东的战略联动、提高交流合作效 能，为助力全国构建新发展格局作出新贡献。加强区域高层次联动常态化沟通，推动合作项目高效落 地；提升重大基础设施互联互通水平，加快推进琼州海峡港航一体化；深化产业合作与科创合作，围绕 种业、深海、商业航天、数字经济、生物医药等重点领域，充分发挥海南应用场景丰富、自由贸易港政 策等优势，加强 ...

文字早评 2026/01/20 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、上海"十五五规划建议"，聚焦未来制造、未来信息、未来材料、未来能源、未来空间等六大重点 领域； 2、美光科技公司表示，内存芯片短缺在过去一个季度愈演愈烈，并重申供应紧张状况将持续到今年之 后；手机和个人电脑等传统领域面临严重短缺； 3、最高检：会同证监会深化资本市场法治建设，从严惩治财务造假、操纵市场等证券犯罪； 4、IMF 将 2025 年中国经济增长率上调 0.2 个百分点至 5% 同时上调 2026 年中国经济增长预期。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.04%/-0.12%/-0.96%/-2.13%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.07%/-0.26%/-1.69%/-3.18%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.43%/-0.96%/-3.18%/-5.11%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.01%/0.05%/-0.07%/-1.11%。 【策略观点】 年初增量资金入场，融资规模大幅走高，市场成交量快速放大。中长期看政策支持资本市场的态度未变， 短期关注市场的节奏，策略上以逢低做多的思路为 ...

天风证券认为，港股短期具备估值修复与情绪改善支撑的反弹基础，但在海外利率维持高位、降息预期 受限的背景下，上行弹性与持续性仍受多重因素约束。中期整体判断维持谨慎乐观。配置建议，价值为 主、成长为辅，优先关注近期走势相对占优、估值仍处于相对低位的科技与消费板块。 本文转载自"腾讯自选股"，智通财经编辑：徐文强。 国金证券认为，随着国内经济复苏步伐加快，叠加海外主要经济体货币政策转向宽松，港股作为连接中 国与全球资本市场的桥梁，估值优势将进一步凸显。特别是中国持续深化资本市场改革开放，优化互联 互通机制，将为港股市场注入持续活力。国金证券还预计2026年港股市场流动性将明显改善，估值修复 行情有望延续。 兴业证券认为，优先推荐互联网龙头为代表的中国AI领域领头羊，认为有望迎来内、外资共振做多。 其次，建议关注红利资产——低利率时代下的战略性高胜率生息资产，建议关注保险、银行、能源、物 管、公用环保等行业机会。第三，建议关注新消费领域。新消费可关注三条主线：一是以连锁酒店为主 的传统服务型消费转型；二是Z世代消费，如潮玩、美护龙头机会；三是高端消费。 1月20日，恒生指数低开0.07%，恒生科技指数跌0.22%。盘 ...