Investment Rating of the Report The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are trending upward with strong performance, influenced by the risk - aversion sentiment due to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the US. The potential US tariff on Swiss gold imports has significantly increased the premium of COMEX gold over London gold. The short - term trend of the US dollar is weak. The US stock index futures face the need for more data to verify the intensification of economic downward pressure, and there is a risk of correction at the current level. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is relatively tortuous. For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations [14][19][23][31]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US allows 401(k) investors to invest in alternative assets. Trump nominates a new Fed governor. China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons in July. Gold prices are trending upward, and there are arbitrage opportunities due to the widening regional price difference [12][13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Miran is nominated as a Fed governor by Trump. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump nominates Stephen Miran as a Fed governor. The risk in the job market has increased, and inflation expectations have risen in July. The possibility of a Fed rate cut within the year has increased in the short term, but the long - term independence of the Fed is affected. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction [21][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [25][27][28]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. The sustainability of strong export growth is questionable. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is tortuous, and the timing of going long should be carefully grasped [29][30][31]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - China imported 1166.6 million tons of soybeans in July. ANEC expects Brazil to export 815 million tons of soybeans in August. US soybean exports were better than expected, and CBOT soybeans stopped falling and stabilized. The supply in China may tighten in the fourth quarter if no US soybeans are purchased. The operating center of soybean meal futures prices is expected to move up [33][35][37]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - China imported 53.4 million tons of edible vegetable oil in July. The oil market is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillating trend. It is not recommended to enter the market today, and existing long positions can be held [39]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The excavator monthly operation rate in July was 56.7%. The inventory of five major steel products increased this week, suppressing the market. Steel prices are driven by policies, but it is difficult for spot prices to rise. It is recommended to be cautious about market rallies [40][41][42]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of the corn starch industry increased, and inventory accumulated again. The supply - demand situation does not support the strengthening of the rice - flour price difference, and the regional price difference may be unfavorable to the 09 contract [44][45]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The northern port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased, and consumption slightly increased. It is recommended to hold new - crop short positions and pay attention to the weather [47][48][49]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was strong on August 7. The coal price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but it is difficult to continue to rebound. Attention should be paid to the change in daily consumption in mid - August [49]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates in July. The ore price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [50][51]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - India's cotton planting area in the 25/26 season is 1058.7 million hectares. Vietnamese textile enterprises have weak restocking intentions. Textile and clothing exports declined in July. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to have limited room for further decline in the short term and may rebound [52][53][54]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The online auction price of coking coal in Jinzhong Lingshi market increased. The coking coal market has strong speculation sentiment due to policy and inspection factors, and the impact on the fundamentals depends on further policies [58][59]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Guangxi postponed the maintenance of a roasting furnace to August 16. The alumina futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [60][61]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Jingao's project is under pre - approval publicity. The spot transaction price has increased, and the polysilicon price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton in the short term. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [62][63][64]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.7 million tons. The supply may increase slightly in August, and the balance sheet may still show inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton [65][67]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's copper import volume increased in July. A copper mine accident in Chile affected production. The macro - sentiment is favorable to copper prices in the short term, but inventory accumulation suppresses the market. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [68][70][71]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons on August 7. The nickel price is difficult to decline deeply in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [73][74][75]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Australia will invest in a lithium project. The demand is strong in August, and the supply risk remains. It is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is resolved and take profit on the 9 - 11 reverse arbitrage [76][77]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Pan American Silver's lead concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The lead price has cost support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage [78][79]. 2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Pan American Silver's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The zinc price may continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity [80][81][82]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG weekly commodity volume increased slightly, and the inventory situation changed. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the behavior of factory warehouses [83][84]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emission) - The CEA price is oscillating. It is recommended to buy on dips cautiously for enterprises with quota demand [85][86]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the inventory increased. The downward space of caustic soda is limited [87][88][89]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. The pulp market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [91]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market is locally weak. The PVC price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to cost support from coal [92][93]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX supply may increase, and PTA is in a loss. PX may accumulate inventory in August - September, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [93][94]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been adjusted locally. The downstream is still in the off - season, and the PTA market is expected to oscillate in the short term [95][96][97]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device of Jingbo has produced qualified products. The styrene market is expected to oscillate at the current price [99]. 2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased. In the medium term, a strategy of short - selling at high prices can be considered for soda ash [100]. 2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased. The glass price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and focus on arbitrage [101][102]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China's import and export data from January to July was released. The container freight rate is expected to be weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [103][104].

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The industry under research is soybean meal [1] 2. Report Date - The report was released on August 6, 2025 [2] 3. Research Team - The research team consists of Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 4. Core Viewpoint - The domestic and foreign markets are diverging. The increase in the FOB quotation of Brazilian soybean exports has led to a steady increase in import costs. The view that the mid - term center of soybean meal will move up remains unchanged [7] 5. Content Summary by Section 5.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes** - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3050, the opening price was 3052, the highest price was 3089, the lowest price was 3051, the closing price was 3065, with a gain of 15 and a gain rate of 0.49%. The trading volume was 573,708, the open interest was 1,487,930, and the open interest change was 24,470 [6] - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3021, the opening price was 3022, the highest price was 3047, the lowest price was 3016, the closing price was 3023, with a gain of 2 and a gain rate of 0.07%. The trading volume was 881,233, the open interest was 1,275,203, and the open interest change was - 83,385 [6] - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3060, the opening price was 3059, the highest price was 3084, the lowest price was 3053, the closing price was 3061, with a gain of 1 and a gain rate of 0.03%. The trading volume was 119,894, the open interest was 630,336, and the open interest change was 4,891 [6] - **Market Analysis** - The US soybean futures contract in the external market fluctuated weakly, with the main contract at 995 cents. The Sino - US talks had no new additional news, and the previous tariffs were extended for 3 months, which depressed the demand outlook for US soybeans. The growth of the new - season US soybeans was good, with a good - excellent rate of 69% in the latest week, 70% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year. Only 5% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, and the soil moisture had some tolerance. The expectation of a bumper harvest was gradually strengthening [7] - Although the US had reached trade agreements with many countries recently, including an agreement with Indonesia where Indonesia needs to purchase $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US, China, the largest exporter of US soybeans, still maintained a 23% import tariff on US soybeans. It was expected that the export of new - season US soybeans would decline [7] - Domestic soybean meal was stronger than the external market, in a state of wide - present and tight - future. The import window for US soybeans was in the fourth quarter. As time approached, there were topics and themes for soybean meal to rise. However, China had started importing Argentine soybean meal, and the export tax rate of Argentine soybeans had recently decreased. Although the cost of imported soybeans in China was expected to rise in the fourth quarter, the room for imagination might be relatively limited [7] 5.2 Industry News - **USDA Crop Growth Report** - As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, in line with market expectations, 70% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year. The flowering rate was 85%, 76% in the previous week, 85% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 86%. The pod - setting rate was 58%, 41% in the previous week, 57% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 58% [10] - **USDA Export Inspection Report** - As of the week ending July 31, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 612,539 tons, higher than expected. The previous market forecast was 250,000 - 460,000 tons, 427,734 tons in the previous week (revised from an initial value of 409,714 tons). The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. As of the week ending August 1, 2024, the US soybean export inspection volume was 266,883 tons. So far in this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 47,834,010 tons, compared with 43,037,528 tons in the same period of the previous year [10][11] - **Canadian Rapeseed Situation** - As of the week ending July 30, the good - excellent rate of rapeseed crops in Saskatchewan, Canada, was 67.84%. As of the week ending July 29, the good - excellent rate of rapeseed growth in Alberta was 60.3%. In Manitoba, due to a long sowing window, rapeseed was at different growth stages. Late - sown rapeseed was in the mid - flowering stage, and the earliest - sown rapeseed had fully set pods [11] 5.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract of soybean meal, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [15][16][18]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The A-share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. Short-term risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be vigilant, while the entry of insurance funds in the medium to long term is expected to enhance market stability. [2] - The WTI crude oil main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound, with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. The overall medium to long-term price center of crude oil is moving down. [3] - Gold prices have dropped to a three - week low. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce, and the potential boost to risk aversion sentiment from core PCE data and Sino - US trade negotiations should be monitored. [4][5] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level for silver, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] - Most chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, PVC, PP, plastic, etc. are expected to have short - term volatile operations, with attention to relevant influencing factors such as cost, policy, and market sentiment. [7][8][10][11] - For agricultural products, corn, peanut, and cotton futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term, while egg prices have limited downward space, and soybean meal may have a wide - range shock, and soybean oil may be strong in the short term. [18][19][20][21][25][26] - For metals, most metal products such as copper, aluminum, etc. have complex market situations, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties. [27][28] - For black commodities, stainless steel may have a short - term correction, while hot - rolled coils, rebar, and iron ore may have short - term volatile operations, and coking coal and coke may be strong in the short term. [33][34][35][37][39] Summary by Directory Macro - The Politburo meeting released multiple signals, including activating the capital market, expanding domestic demand, and supporting innovation. The long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds has been implemented, and the proportion of equity investment is expected to increase. The lithium - battery industry's "anti - involution" policy is deepening. [2] - The A - share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. [2] Crude Oil - Summer demand supports oil prices, but OPEC's production increase plan, Fed meetings, and trade negotiations bring instability. The WTI main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. [3] - The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, and OPEC + may increase production in July and August, leading to a relatively weak oil price in the medium to long term. [3] Gold - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a September rate cut, pushing up the dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. [4] - Gold prices dropped to a three - week low, but institutional willingness to buy on dips still exists. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce and relevant influencing factors. [4][5] Silver - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, suppressing the attractiveness of silver as a non - income asset. Trump's tariff on semi - finished copper indirectly dragged down silver. [6] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] Chemical - **PTA**: The spot price decreased, the processing fee was at a low level, the overall supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation. [7] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply became more relaxed, the inventory was at a low level, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with attention to macro - policies. [8] - **PVC**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand improved slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve significantly, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [10] - **PP**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [11] - **Plastic**: The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreased, the demand increased, the inventory decreased, the fundamentals had limited driving force, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [13] - **Glass**: The supply fluctuated slightly, the demand weakened, the inventory decreased, the supply - demand change was limited, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [14] - **Methanol**: The supply increased, the demand had contradictions, the inventory increased, the cost had support but the profit was difficult to sustain, and the futures price was expected to be weak in the short term. [17] Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The global and US yields are at high levels, but the ending inventory has decreased. The domestic market is in a state of alternating old and new grains, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term. [18][19] - **Peanut**: The estimated planting area is expected to increase. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [20] - **Cotton**: The global and US cotton production and ending inventory are expected to increase. The domestic supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short term. [21] - **Pig**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in the short term. [22] - **Egg**: The production capacity is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price has limited downward space. [24] - **Soybean Meal**: The international price is driven by tariffs and weather. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price may have a wide - range shock in the short term. [25] - **Soybean Oil**: The international market focuses on weather. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the futures price may be strong in the short term. [26] Metals - **Copper**: The US copper tariff event led to a decline in US copper prices. The domestic support policies are strong, and the copper market has complex game situations. [27] - **Aluminum**: The Fed maintained interest rates, the supply is close to the ceiling, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may be weak in the short term. [28] - **Alumina**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for macro - guidance. [29] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost provides support, the supply is excessive, the demand is in the off - season, and it is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate. [30] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment. [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is expected to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [32] - **Polysilicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [33] Black - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is weakening, the supply may decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and it may have a short - term correction. [34] - **Rebar**: The "anti - involution" policy is being implemented, the cost support is weakening, the demand has a slight recovery, and it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [35] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Similar to rebar, it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [36] - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand is supported, the inventory is at a low level, and it may oscillate in the short term. [37][38] - **Coal**: Coking coal supply may shrink, and coke prices may be strong due to cost and demand, but relevant risks need to be monitored. [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $750 billion worth of US energy products. This will lead to a short - term decline in the US dollar index [15]. - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, but risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [3]. - The 10 - department joint issuance of the plan to promote agricultural product consumption aims to boost agricultural product consumption through various measures. The decline in industrial enterprise profits in June has narrowed, and the new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth [17][18]. - The export data of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to increase. Steel prices have risen significantly due to the continuous increase in coking coal and coke prices and the relatively strong fundamentals of finished products, but there is a risk of overvaluation [5]. - Polysilicon is expected to correct in the short term, and it is advisable to consider short - selling lightly through options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. The EU hopes to continue discussions on steel and aluminum tariffs with the US. The applicable tariff will be the higher of the "most - favored - nation tariff" or 15%. The short - term market risk preference will moderately recover, and the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will decline in the short term [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - 10 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption" to promote agricultural product consumption through various measures. In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the decline has narrowed. The new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which may set an example for upcoming China - US tariffs. A Politburo meeting will be held this week, and attention should be paid to its statements on the economic work in the second half of the year [17][18][19]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate stock indexes evenly [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, but there are still differences in key industry tariffs. The US durable goods orders in June decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, better than the expected - 10.7%. The core data excluding Boeing orders performed well. The US - EU tariff negotiation has accelerated, and the risk of further deterioration of the tariff level has decreased, supporting market risk preference [21][22]. - Investment advice: The trade negotiation is moving in a positive direction, and it will still fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 601.8 billion yuan. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, and the funds are expected to become looser after the end of the month. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [23]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to cautiously bet on the opportunity of oversold rebound next week. Do not be bearish in the long term, but the market will be volatile in Q3, and it may be too early for allocation buyers to go long at present [24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market is running strongly. The recent futures price increase is mainly due to macro - policies. The National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal mine production in key coal - producing provinces, but the actual impact of checking over - production may be limited. The price may return to the fundamentals. The supply of coking coal has recovered partially this week, and the coke price has increased for the third time, with some steel mills accepting the increase [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market sentiment for coking coal is still strong, but the risk is high as the price rises significantly. Pay attention to position management [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 30th week was 2.2389 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.94%. It is expected to reach 2.3726 million tons and 66.69% in the 31st week. From July 1 - 25, the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.23% month - on - month. The production of Malaysian palm oil in July is expected to increase, and the inventory will increase significantly. China may export 100,000 - 120,000 tons of soybean oil to India [28][29]. - Investment advice: The data from Malaysia is bearish for palm oil. It is not recommended to short unilaterally. Consider buying put options or waiting for opportunities to go long at low prices. For international soybean oil, focus on US weather and bio - fuel policies. For domestic soybean oil, if exports to India increase, it will support prices [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The international sugar price has fluctuated greatly. The expected increase in production in Brazil and India and the rumor of India's export in the 2025/26 season have put pressure on the price. India's sugar export may be unfeasible at current international prices. The sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have cleared their warehouses, and the spot price in Guangxi has remained stable with a narrow - range shock. The sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil has decreased in June [31][33][34]. - Investment advice: The international sugar market is under pressure from supply. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate mainly. Pay attention to the resistance level of 5900 yuan [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the first half of 2025, China's cotton product exports increased under pressure. As of mid - July, the pre - sale progress of Brazilian cotton in 2025 was 65%. As of July 17, the weekly net signing of US cotton in the 25/26 season was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%. The ICE cotton price is expected to be in a low - level shock pattern in the short term [36][37][39]. - Investment advice: The lack of news about increased import quotas in China, tight old - cotton inventory, and high operating rates in Xinjiang spinning mills will support cotton prices in the short term. However, the demand from inland spinning mills is weakening, and the increase in warehouse receipts and the expectation of increased production in the 25/26 season may limit the upward trend of cotton prices [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina has lowered the export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has remained high. China has stopped purchasing US soybeans since the end of May, and the pre - sale of US new - crop soybeans is significantly lower than the normal level in previous years [41][42]. - Investment advice: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Focus on the development of the China - US trade war. Soybean meal inventory will continue to accumulate, and the spot basis will remain weak [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Most coal mines in Ordos maintained normal production on July 23, and the coal price was stable with a slight increase. The implementation of the over - production policy and high summer temperatures are expected to keep the coal price strong. The power plant's inventory has decreased slightly, and the coal price is expected to return to around the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan [43][44]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain strong, and it is expected to return to around 670 yuan, the long - term agreement price [44]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore production and sales of Mount Gibson in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. Affected by coking coal and coke, the iron ore price has fluctuated strongly, but it has encountered resistance after breaking through $105. The long - term increase in the price center of coking coal and coke will suppress the upside potential of iron ore [45]. - Investment advice: Observe the follow - up of the spot market after the price pull - back. The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, so it is recommended to reduce the position [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The fifth blast furnace of Vietnam's Hoa Phat Group's Dung Quat Steel Complex has been put into operation, increasing the annual production capacity by 5.6 million tons. The total new - signed contract value of the top seven construction central enterprises in the first six months exceeded 5.9 trillion yuan. South Korea will impose temporary anti - dumping duties on hot - rolled steel plates imported from China and Japan. Steel prices have risen significantly, but there is a risk of overvaluation [47][49][50]. - Investment advice: Steel prices will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously [51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn starch sugar is average, and the operating rate has decreased. The consumption of corn and corn starch has decreased this week [52]. - Investment advice: Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. This is not favorable for the rice - flour price difference [53][54]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 2.5 percentage points year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy in the breeding industry may reduce the corn demand in the new year [55]. - Investment advice: The stalemate in the spot market may continue until the new corn is on the market. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. Hold the short positions of new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures. The price of lithium carbonate has increased, and there are rumors about production cuts in some areas. The limit - trading measure is expected to stabilize the market [56][57]. - Investment advice: Before the production cuts are confirmed, there is no upward momentum for the price. Pay attention to the downstream procurement. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory and reverse arbitrage [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The EU has started monitoring the trade of scrap copper and aluminum. Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine. Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary has started its new smelter [59][60][61]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, be cautious about the repeated macro - expectations. The copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit, daily limit, margin, and handling fees for industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, but the actual transaction has not changed much. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in July and August, with a monthly surplus of 100,000 - 200,000 tons [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: The delivery price of polysilicon sets a lower limit for the futures price. However, due to the difficulty of the spot price to keep up with the futures price increase, the short - term price is expected to correct. Consider short - selling lightly through options and look for opportunities to go long after the correction [66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production and operating rate of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, the Northwest, Yunnan, and Sichuan have shown different trends. The social inventory has decreased, and the factory inventory has increased. The supply is expected to increase with the resumption of production, and the supply - demand gap will narrow in August [67][68][69]. - Investment advice: After the price increase, the basis of industrial silicon has weakened rapidly. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options [69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Danantara is considering acquiring the GNI smelter in Indonesia. The nickel price has been strong recently but fell on Friday night. There are different statements about Indonesia's nickel export policy. The price of Philippine nickel ore has decreased, and the price of nickel iron has increased, but the steel mills' purchasing intention is not strong [70][71]. - Investment advice: The nickel price is closely related to macro - sentiment. It is recommended to use options for hedging in unilateral trading. Holders can sell for hedging at high prices [72]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - From January to June 2025, the number of electric bicycles recycled and replaced was 8.465 million each. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1. The overseas macro - situation has limited fluctuations. The supply of primary lead is tight, and the production of secondary lead has increased slightly. The demand from end - users has not improved significantly, but the lead social inventory may turn around [73][74][75]. - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices and manage the position well. For arbitrage, it is recommended to observe temporarily [76]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The port inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased by 860,000 tons compared with last week. The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc has turned negative, but the注销仓单 is still high. The zinc smelting profit may improve in August, and the supply is expected to remain high. The demand from primary processing industries is differentiated, and the social inventory has increased significantly [77][78]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the risk is high, and it is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of medium - term calendar spread positive arbitrage. It is recommended to observe in terms of domestic - foreign trading [79]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 25, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 71.34 euros/ton, a 0.65% increase from the previous day and a 2.07% increase from last week. The investment funds reduced their net long positions by 100,000 tons last week. The carbon price is expected to be volatile in the short term [80]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will be volatile in the short term [81]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle - East oil price has strengthened relative to Brent. The increase in the Middle - East oil export volume is limited. The strong diesel crack spread and EU sanctions on Russia support the Middle - East oil price [82][83]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain volatile. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and market risk preference [84]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was slightly adjusted. The supply has increased, and the demand is average. The caustic soda futures price has increased due to the overall positive sentiment in the commodity market, but the increase is limited [85][86]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda valuation is not low, and the speculative demand is difficult to stimulate, resulting in a small increase [86]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is generally stable, with individual prices increasing slightly. The futures price has continued to rise, but the downstream paper mills' follow - up is not strong, and high - price transactions are difficult [87]. - Investment advice: Due to the "anti - involution" policy, low - valued pulp may be targeted by funds. Investors should pay attention to the risks [88]. 3.

Report Overview - Report Date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The external market of US soybeans is oscillating, with the main contract at 1030 cents. Due to favorable weather and a slightly bearish July USDA report, CBOT soybeans declined weakly at the beginning of last week, testing the previous low of 1000 cents. Subsequently, positive news emerged, such as the US reaching a trade agreement with Indonesia, which includes Indonesia's plan to purchase $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US, slightly alleviating concerns about US soybean exports. Overall, US soybeans may continue to oscillate in the bottom range. The growth of new - season US soybeans is good, with a surprisingly high excellent - good rate of 70% in the latest week, a 4% increase from the previous week, and only 7% of the planting area affected by drought, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. If China, the largest importer of US soybeans, still cannot purchase due to high tariffs, CBOT soybeans are expected to lack sustained improvement [6]. - Domestic soybean meal continued to be strong this week. On one hand, the risk preference in the commodity market has recovered, and the prices of most industrial products at the bottom have risen, driving the bullish sentiment in the market. On the other hand, the fundamental situation of soybean meal is solid. Although the current spot supply of soybean meal is abundant, considering that China has not started purchasing new - season US soybeans for the fourth quarter, the current pressure is insignificant. During the week, CBOT soybeans recovered, the FOB price of Brazilian soybeans increased, and the import cost gradually rose. The far - month soybean meal should generally be treated with a low - buying strategy, with the risk being whether there will be positive news from the Sino - US peace talks, such as a mutual reduction of tariffs without an agreement for China to purchase additional US agricultural products [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3098, the opening price was 3100, the highest price was 3136, the lowest price was 3098, the closing price was 3116, with a rise of 18 and a rise rate of 0.58%. The trading volume was 413,570, the open interest was 1,236,007, and the open interest change was 22,460 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3076, the opening price was 3080, the highest price was 3121, the lowest price was 3077, the closing price was 3095, with a rise of 19 and a rise rate of 0.62%. The trading volume was 1,166,151, the open interest was 1,838,499, and the open interest change was - 12,733 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3111, the opening price was 3096, the highest price was 3155, the lowest price was 3096, the closing price was 3133, with a rise of 22 and a rise rate of 0.71%. The trading volume was 126,795, the open interest was 623,289, and the open interest change was 1,122 [6]. - **External Market**: The external market of US soybeans is oscillating. Favorable factors include the trade agreement with Indonesia and potential agreements with other small countries, while bearish factors include good weather, a high excellent - good rate of new - season soybeans, and China's non - purchase due to tariffs [6]. - **Domestic Market**: Domestic soybean meal is strong, driven by market sentiment and its own fundamentals. The far - month contract should be treated with a low - buying strategy, with risks related to Sino - US trade negotiations [6]. 3.2 Industry News - **USDA Pressing Weekly Report**: As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the US soybean pressing profit was $2.58 per bushel, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week. In 2024, the average pressing profit was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was $257.28 per short ton, equivalent to $5.98 per bushel. The truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 56.15 cents per pound, equivalent to $6.63 per bushel. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $10.28 per bushel, up from $10.23 per bushel last week [7][9]. - **Anec Forecast**: Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 12.11 million tons (previously estimated at 12.19 million tons), soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.4 million tons (previously estimated at 2.25 million tons), and corn exports are expected to be 4.14 million tons (previously estimated at 4.6 million tons) [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [11][13][14]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market is cautious, and prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Downside may be limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][23]. - **Aluminum**: Facing upward pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the impact of the ore end, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: News affects sentiment, and fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Reality and macro factors are in a game, and steel prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: - **Fuel oil**: Weakly oscillating at night, may temporarily stabilize in the short - term [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Temporarily weak, with a slight decline in the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot [5]. - **LPG**: Cost support is effective, may rebound in the short - term [5]. - **Coal - Related**: - **Coking coal**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Coke**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Steam coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [54][57]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, pay attention to substantial changes in supply, with a trend strength of 1 [32][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fermenting, pay attention to upward space, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news continues to ferment, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, with a weak unilateral trend [2]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, positive spread arbitrage on dips [2]. - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is released, weakly oscillating [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5]. - **PVC**: Weakly oscillating [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Doubts about production recovery in the origin, waiting for the evolution of contradictions [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Export expectations improve, US soybeans rise, and domestic soybean meal rebounds [5]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot [5]. - **Sugar**: Waiting for guidance from super - expected information [5]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices hit a new high this year [5]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season is fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling declines [5]. - **Pigs**: Sentiment has changed [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support below [5]. Others - **Shipping**: For the container shipping index (European line), hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [5]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Macro**: Domestic policies focus on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution measures, which may boost the new energy growth sector in the short term. The market expects pro - growth policies from the July Politburo meeting. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but may suppress trade - dependent sectors in the long run. Stock index futures are expected to show an upward trend in the medium term but are subject to policy implementation and external risks [2]. - **Crude Oil**: The low dollar index supports oil prices, but factors like reduced July rate - cut expectations and potential OPEC+ production increase may keep prices oscillating in the short term. WTI is expected to rebound around $65 per barrel [3]. - **Gold**: Trump's tariff policies and strong employment data have cooled expectations of an early Fed rate cut. Gold ETFs have seen significant inflows. If gold fails to return above $3300 per ounce, it may test June lows [4][6]. - **Silver**: Strong US employment data and tariff - related inflation concerns have influenced the market. The supply - demand gap in 2025 is expected, but weak industrial demand and high inventories limit price increases. Attention should be paid to the $36.5 per ounce support level [7]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Cost support is weak, and supply pressure is increasing. Demand is sluggish, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market is in a tight supply - demand balance with emerging inventory pressure. Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $4200 per ton support level [9]. - **PVC**: Fundamentals have not improved significantly, and prices will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [10][11]. - **PP**: With no obvious fundamental drivers, prices will follow market sentiment in the short term [12][13]. - **Plastic**: The fundamentals show no significant improvement, and prices will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The market has limited new drivers, and prices are expected to oscillate in the bottom range in the short term [15]. - **Glass**: Market fundamentals have limited drivers, and prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [16]. - **Rubber**: The supply is abundant due to good weather in major producing areas. The demand from the tire industry is weak. The market will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the downstream start - up rate [17][18]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a weak supply - demand balance. Port inventory accumulation and weak demand may suppress price increases. Prices will oscillate in a range in the short term [19]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Corn**: The USDA report has limited positive impact. The domestic market is in a transition period, and prices are oscillating downward due to factors like wheat substitution. The futures price may test the $2300 per ton support level [20][21]. - **Peanut**: The expected increase in planting area may pressure far - month prices. The current market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and prices will oscillate in the short term [22]. - **Cotton**: The US production forecast is revised downward, and the domestic supply is expected to be abundant. The price will oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $14000 per ton pressure level [23]. - **Pig**: Supply - demand imbalance leads to high uncertainty in the market. Terminal consumption needs continuous attention [24]. - **Egg**: Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Prices will oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to farmers' culling intentions [25][26]. - **Soybean Meal**: Tariffs and weather are the main drivers. Supply pressure is high, and prices may oscillate weakly in the short term [27]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention should be paid to US weather and MPOB report. Supply pressure is large, and prices may oscillate weakly in the short term [28]. - **Metals**: - **Copper**: Trump's tariff threats and domestic policies have complex impacts. Short - term short positions can be considered [29]. - **Aluminum**: Trump's tariff policies and seasonal factors pressure prices. Aggressive investors can trade in a range, while conservative investors should wait and see [30]. - **Alumina**: Ore supply issues and low inventory support prices, and the 2509 contract may be strong [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support and inventory accumulation coexist. The 2511 contract will oscillate in a range [32]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Cost support is strengthening, but demand is weak. Prices may be strong in the short term [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is high, and prices may be strong in the short term but face over - supply pressure in the long term [34]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is in a wait - and - see state. Prices may be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $40,000 per ton pressure level [35]. - **Black Metals**: - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support exists, but supply pressure and weak demand remain. Prices will oscillate in a wide range at a low level [36]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Macro - sentiment improvement and cost support drive prices up. A short - term long - bias strategy can be adopted [37][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Import cost supports prices, but demand is under pressure. The main contract will oscillate in a range [39]. - **Coal**: Coking coal is weakly stable, and the coke main contract may be strong. Attention should be paid to steel mill inventory and policy implementation [40]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Policy focuses on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution, which may boost new energy stocks. Market expects pro - growth policies from the July Politburo meeting. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but affects trade - dependent sectors. Stock index futures are expected to rise in the medium term but are subject to risks [2]. Crude Oil - Low dollar index supports prices, but reduced rate - cut expectations and potential OPEC+ production increase limit upward movement. WTI may rebound around $65 per barrel [3]. Gold - Trump's tariff policies and strong employment data cool rate - cut expectations. Gold ETFs have large inflows. Gold price may test June lows if it fails to return above $3300 per ounce [4][6]. Silver - Strong employment data and tariff - related inflation concerns affect the market. Supply - demand gap in 2025, but weak industrial demand and high inventories limit price increases. Attention to $36.5 per ounce support [7]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Cost support is weak, supply increases, and demand is sluggish [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Tight supply - demand balance with inventory pressure. Weak in the short term, attention to $4200 per ton support [9]. - **PVC**: Fundamentals unchanged, prices follow market sentiment [10][11]. - **PP**: No fundamental drivers, prices follow market sentiment [12][13]. - **Plastic**: No improvement in fundamentals, prices follow market sentiment [14]. - **Soda Ash**: Limited new drivers, prices oscillate in the bottom range [15]. - **Glass**: Limited drivers, prices oscillate widely [16]. Rubber - Supply is abundant due to good weather, demand from the tire industry is weak. Market oscillates, attention to downstream start - up rate [17][18]. Methanol - Supply - demand balance is weak. Port inventory and weak demand suppress prices. Prices oscillate in a range [19]. Agricultural Products - **Corn**: USDA report has limited impact. Domestic market in transition, prices down due to substitution. Futures may test $2300 per ton support [20][21]. - **Peanut**: Expected increase in planting area pressures far - month prices. Current supply - demand is weak, prices oscillate [22]. - **Cotton**: US production forecast revised down, domestic supply abundant. Prices oscillate, attention to $14000 per ton pressure [23]. - **Pig**: Supply - demand imbalance, high uncertainty, attention to terminal consumption [24]. - **Egg**: Supply sufficient, demand weak. Prices oscillate at a low level, attention to farmers' culling intentions [25][26]. - **Soybean Meal**: Tariffs and weather are drivers. Supply pressure is high, prices may oscillate weakly [27]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention to US weather and MPOB report. Supply pressure is large, prices may oscillate weakly [28]. Metals - **Copper**: Trump's tariff threats and domestic policies have complex impacts. Short - term short positions can be considered [29]. - **Aluminum**: Trump's tariff policies and seasonality pressure prices. Aggressive investors can trade in a range, conservative investors wait and see [30]. - **Alumina**: Ore supply issues and low inventory support prices, 2509 contract may be strong [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support and inventory accumulation coexist. 2511 contract oscillates in a range [32]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Cost support strengthens, demand is weak. Prices may be strong in the short term [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is high, prices may be strong in the short term but face over - supply pressure [34]. - **Polysilicon**: Market is in a wait - and - see state. Prices may be strong in the short term, attention to $40,000 per ton pressure [35]. Black Metals - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support exists, but supply pressure and weak demand remain. Prices oscillate in a wide range at a low level [36]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Macro - sentiment improvement and cost support drive prices up. Short - term long - bias strategy [37][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Import cost supports prices, but demand is under pressure. Main contract oscillates in a range [39]. - **Coal**: Coking coal is weakly stable, coke main contract may be strong. Attention to steel mill inventory and policy implementation [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different products showing trends such as rising, falling, and fluctuating [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: Continued to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Traded sideways, with a trend strength of 0 [2][14]. - **Lead**: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Driven by the macro - environment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][22]. - **Nickel**: Upside potential was limited, and prices were under pressure at low levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventories were slightly digested, and prices recovered but with limited elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices were under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][30][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to policy changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations were volatile, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][37]. - **Rebar**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][39][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][40][42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was brewing, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Coking Coal**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized with fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55]. - **Log**: The main contract switched, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][56][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Cost support was weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][65]. - **PTA**: Close the long - PX short - PTA position, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][66]. - **MEG**: Traded in a single - sided oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][59][66]. - **Rubber**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [2][67]. Others - **Fuel Oil**: Adjusted narrowly at night, with low - level fluctuations in the market [4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Strong in the short - term, with the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market oscillating at a high level [4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract oscillated and sorted; hold a light short position in the 10 contract [4]. - **Short - Fiber**: Traded weakly with oscillations, and demand pressure gradually emerged [4]. - **Bottle Chip**: Traded weakly with oscillations, long PR short PF [4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Fundamental contradictions were not obvious, and prices were greatly affected by international oil prices [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: There was insufficient speculation on U.S. soybean weather, lacking driving forces [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market was closed overnight, lacking guidance, and the Dalian soybean meal might oscillate [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Spot prices were stable, and the market oscillated [4]. - **Corn**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Sugar**: Traded in a narrow range [4]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to U.S. tariff policies and their impacts [4]. - **Egg**: It was difficult to increase the culling rate, and attention should be paid to the pre - emptive expectations [4]. - **Live Pig**: The gaming sentiment increased [4]. - **Peanut**: There was support at the bottom [4].

Group 1: Energy - Brent 09 contract rose 2.78%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear issue have heated up again, and the trade war risk has weakened. The theme of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [1] - Night - time oil prices rose 3% due to positive news of US - Vietnam tariffs. High - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is in a weak oscillation, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is boosted in the short term [21] - Night - time oil prices rose 3%, and asphalt is expected to follow the upward trend. Supply and demand are expected to increase, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue [22] - The 7 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas was significantly lowered, and the market is in a weak oscillation [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, the international copper price led the rise at a high level. The market is trading the probability of a July interest rate cut. Short - term Shanghai copper's upward trend tests 81,000, and long - term high - level short - allocation is recommended [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and there is a risk of a phased correction [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. If the spread between the far - month contracts on the disk expands, consider a long - ADC12 and short - AL strategy [5] - The spot price of alumina is around 3,100 yuan, and the upward space is limited [6] - Overnight, the precious metals oscillated strongly. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and attention is focused on the non - farm payrolls data [2] - Zinc has strong support at 22,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and a short - allocation strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [7] - Shanghai lead is consolidating above 17,000. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention is paid to whether it can stand firm at 17,000 [8] - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level in the rebound. Technically, it is at the end of the rebound, waiting for a short - selling opportunity [9] - Tin prices oscillated overnight. It is advisable to short - allocate the far - month contracts [10] Group 3: Building Materials and Chemicals - Multi - silicon futures' main contract rose to the daily limit. The short - term upward space depends on the implementation of supply - side regulation policies [12] - Industrial silicon futures prices rose strongly. Due to the interweaving of long and short themes, the market is expected to oscillate [13] - Night - time steel prices oscillated. Supply and demand in the steel market are both increasing, and the short - term is expected to remain strong [14] - Iron ore prices rose overnight. Supply is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to follow the finished products and oscillate strongly [15] - Coke prices rose. There is an expectation of a price increase, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [16] - Coking coal prices rose. Policy may reduce production, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - Manganese silicon prices rose. The inventory has decreased, but the upward pressure above 6,750 is large [18] - Silicon iron prices rose. Demand is okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is following the cost fluctuations in the short term and may oscillate at a low level in the long term. Caustic soda is strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [28] - PX and PTA prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser [29] - Ethylene glycol is continuing a small - scale rebound and is expected to oscillate at the bottom [30] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA reports on soybeans are neutral. Domestic soybean meal is in a weak oscillation [35] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose. A long - allocation strategy on dips is recommended in the long term [36] - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded from a low level. Weather and policies need to be focused on in the short term [38] - Corn futures are in an oscillating trend. The supply rhythm affects the market [39] - Hog futures rose significantly. The rebound space is limited in the medium term, and policy support is expected in the long term [40] - Egg futures fell. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [41] - U.S. cotton prices rose. Domestic cotton inventory is expected to be tight, and buying on dips is recommended [42] - U.S. sugar is in a downward trend, and domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple futures are oscillating, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] - Wood futures are oscillating. Supply has some positive factors, but the price is still weak [45] - Pulp futures rose slightly. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [46] Group 5: Others - The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in July. The progress of the Gaza negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [20] - Urea market supply and demand have improved marginally, and the short - term market is in a strong oscillation [24] - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [25] - Styrene prices are in a weak trend. Supply and demand support is insufficient [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene are in a weak fundamental situation [27] - Glass futures rose significantly, but it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory and weak demand [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and inventories are rising. A rebound from an oversold position is possible [33] - Soda ash is strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited due to expected demand reduction [34] Group 6: Financial Markets - A - share market is in a weak oscillation. In the style configuration, technology and growth should be increased on the basis of dividend assets [47] - Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. Be aware of the risk of increased volatility in the short term [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Short - term price trends are volatile, and market fluctuations increase. US economic data and policy decisions influence its short - term rise and fall [14][15]. - Stock Index Futures: A - shares continue to rise with increased trading volume, and the next stage of incremental policies will determine whether market risk appetite can be further enhanced [2]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Bullish in July, but the probability of a trending market is not high. It is recommended to use a grid strategy and continue to hold the curve - steepening strategy [29]. - Steel: Steel prices are oscillating. While spot fundamentals are not under significant pressure, there are still medium - and long - term risks in external demand, so caution is advised regarding the height of the steel price rebound [4]. - Copper: Macro factors support copper prices, and short - term prices are likely to oscillate strongly due to repeated tariff expectations and increased LME squeeze - out expectations [5]. - Crude Oil: Prices are oscillating strongly, waiting for the results of the OPEC+ weekend meeting [6]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Trump will not extend the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline; the US June ISM manufacturing PMI is 49; Powell cannot determine if a July rate cut is too early [12][13][14]. - Review: Gold prices rebound due to the weakening of the US dollar index, but short - term upward momentum is insufficient. The decision on a July rate cut depends on the June non - farm payroll report and inflation data [14]. - Investment Advice: Short - term price trends are volatile, and market fluctuations increase [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: Powell expects tariffs to affect inflation this summer; the US Senate passes Trump's tax reform bill; Trump denies extending the tariff deadline [16][17][19]. - Review: Market risk appetite cools, and the US dollar index remains low in the short term [19]. - Investment Advice: The US dollar remains weak in the short term [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: US June manufacturing activity is slightly better than expected; the number of job vacancies unexpectedly rises; Powell says tariffs will affect prices this summer [21][22][23]. - Review: The US economy shows resilience, and the market continues to wait for non - farm data. There are signs of overheating in market sentiment [23]. - Investment Advice: Be aware of the risk of a market correction [23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: The added value of above - scale electronic information manufacturing from January to May increases by 11.1% year - on - year; the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting emphasizes regulating low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [24][25]. - Review: A - shares continue to rise with increased trading volume, and the next stage of incremental policies will determine market risk appetite [26]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - News: The Caixin PMI in June is 50.4; the central bank conducts 131 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [28][29]. - Review: Bullish in July, but the probability of a trending market is not high. It is recommended to use a grid strategy and continue to hold the curve - steepening strategy [29]. - Investment Advice: Long positions can be held, and it is advisable to pay attention to the strategy of buying on dips [30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - News: The US processed 203.7 million bushels of soybeans in May [31]. - Review: The market is calm. Brazilian exports are expected to decline in June, and domestic downstream transactions are dull [32]. - Investment Advice: Short - term futures prices continue to oscillate. Pay attention to weather in US soybean - growing areas and Sino - US relations [33]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - News: Malaysia's palm oil production in June decreased by 0.65% month - on - month; Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 53% year - on - year [34][35]. - Review: The oil market continues to oscillate. Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to decline slightly in June, and Indonesian exports are expected to remain high in June [35]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to production growth in producing areas and restocking in consuming areas. Also, watch the results of the US July 8 hearing [35]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - News: Only 3 sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have not cleared their inventories; the expected delivery volume of ICE July raw sugar is the lowest since 2014; sugar production in central - southern Brazil in the first half of June decreased by 22% year - on - year [36][37][38]. - Review: Sugar production in central - southern Brazil decreased due to rain, and there are uncertainties in future sugar production [38]. - Investment Advice: The external market is weak, which will drag down the domestic market, but domestic spot prices are firm. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [39]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - News: Starch sugar prices are stable, with different trends in different varieties [40]. - Review: Starch enterprises are still in the red, and starch production is expected to gradually reduce to reduce inventory. Downstream demand may increase the operating rate of starch sugar [40]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see due to complex influencing factors on the CS - C spread [41]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: The total land acquisition amount of key real - estate enterprises in the first half of the year increased by 33.3% year - on - year; China's heavy - truck sales in June increased by 30% year - on - year [42][43]. - Review: Steel prices are oscillating, with no significant pressure on the spot market, but medium - and long - term external demand risks remain [44]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to use a rebound - hedging strategy for the spot market [45]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - News: The auction of imported corn starts, with a high成交 rate and premium [45]. - Review: The auction reflects a shortage of spot inventory. If the balance sheet is as expected, the auction volume may not reverse the supply - demand situation [45]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts. When the new - crop production situation is clearer, consider shorting the November and January contracts [45]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - News: The price of steam coal in northern ports is temporarily stable, and terminal inventory is relatively abundant [46]. - Review: High - temperature power consumption eases coal prices in the short term, and prices are expected to remain stable [46]. - Investment Advice: Coal prices are expected to remain stable in the short term due to high - temperature power consumption [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - News: The mining plan of the Sino Iron project is unconditionally approved [47][48]. - Review: Iron ore prices continue to oscillate weakly, with seasonal pressure on the fundamentals but no prominent contradictions [48]. - Investment Advice: Iron ore prices are expected to continue weak oscillations in July [48]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - News: The government emphasizes governing low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [49]. - Review: The polysilicon fundamentals are not optimistic, but there have been significant policy changes recently [50]. - Investment Advice: Before leading enterprises jointly cut production, the fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended to continue holding the PS2508 - 2509 long - spread position [50]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - News: The production schedule of silicone continues to strengthen [51]. - Review: There are production changes in different regions, and the upper space of the disk is limited [51][52]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Semi - solid batteries are mass - applied in electric light trucks, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will accelerate the research and development of related varieties [53][54]. - Review: The demand in July is better than expected, driving the price to rise [54]. - Investment Advice: Short - term lithium prices are expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to avoid short positions or move them to LC2511 and pay attention to buying on dips. Also, consider the LC2509 - LC2511 long - spread position [54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: Russia's exports of basic metals to China have increased significantly; a new copper company is established; Chile's copper production in May increased month - on - month [55][57][58]. - Review: Macro factors support copper prices, and short - term prices are likely to oscillate strongly [58]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to take a bullish approach unilaterally and wait and see for arbitrage [59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: Shanghai launches a subsidy program for electric bicycle trade - ins; battery prices are raised [60][61]. - Review: The short - term supply and demand are weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply and demand in the long term, and the price may rise [62][63]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to buying on dips and potential Sell Put opportunities. Wait and see for the C - structure and consider external - internal reverse arbitrage [63]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: The LME zinc spread is at a discount; a zinc smelter strike ends; Peru's zinc concentrate production increased in April [63][64]. - Review: Zinc prices oscillate downward. Although the short - term macro sentiment is strong, the medium - term fundamentals are expected to be in surplus [64]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see unilaterally, consider positive arbitrage for spreads, and maintain the external - internal positive arbitrage idea in the medium term [64]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: Indonesia proposes an investment plan for nickel mines to the US [65]. - Review: LME and SHFE inventories decrease. The shortage of nickel ore eases, and raw material cost support weakens [66]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds as the medium - term fundamentals are bearish [67]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - News: API US crude oil inventories increase [68]. - Review: Oil prices oscillate strongly, waiting for the results of the OPEC+ meeting [68]. - Investment Advice: Short - term price oscillations are expected within a range [69]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - News: Sinopec lowers the listing price of pure benzene [70]. - Review: The short - term supply - demand structure of pure benzene is average, and the supply - demand of styrene is expected to weaken in the future [70][71]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to the release rhythm of new pure benzene capacity, and price fluctuations depend on the oil end and supply disruptions [71]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - News: The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreases, and the supply and demand situation is not optimistic [72][73]. - Review: The caustic soda market is oversupplied, and prices may continue to decline [73][74]. - Investment Advice: The rebound of the futures price is limited as the spot price decline has not ended [74]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - News: Bottle chip factory export prices are mostly stable, and some are slightly lowered [75]. - Review: Bottle chip factories plan to cut production in July, and if implemented, inventory pressure will be relieved [77][78]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the bottle chip processing margin by buying on dips [78]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - News: The price of imported wood pulp continues to decline [78]. - Review: The fundamentals of pulp are weak, and the market is expected to oscillate [78][79]. - Investment Advice: The market is expected to oscillate as the fundamentals remain weak despite the adjustment of deliverable pulp varieties [79]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - News: The price of PVC powder in the domestic market decreases [80]. - Review: PVC futures oscillate after falling, and the short - term fundamentals change little [80]. - Investment Advice: The market is expected to oscillate as the short - term fundamentals change little [80]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - News: The closing price of CEA on July 1 decreases, and the carbon market enables one - way auction trading [81][82]. - Review: One - way auction trading improves market efficiency and liquidity [82]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see due to large short - term fluctuations [82].