Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report Today, Shanghai Copper opened high and closed low but rose during the day. The potential strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile and the zero long - term pricing of mining processing fees last week boosted market sentiment, leading to a continuous increase in copper prices. SMM data shows increased copper production. However, copper product profits are squeezed, and the production enthusiasm of copper plate and strip is weak. Copper tube enterprises are cautious, while copper foil maintains a high - prosperity level. The CSPT decided not to set a reference figure for the spot copper concentrate processing fee in Q1 2026. Due to year - end capital chain tension and tax - related impacts, downstream procurement sentiment is weak, and the spot discount has widened. Caution is advised regarding price corrections [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Market Analysis] - The potential strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile may start on December 29 if the new labor contract mediation fails. Last week, the zero long - term pricing of mining processing fees boosted market sentiment, resulting in consecutive days of rising copper prices. In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons (11.76%). SMM expects December's electrolytic copper production to increase by 65,700 tons (5.96%) month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year. Copper product profits are squeezed, and the production enthusiasm of copper plate and strip is weak. Copper tube enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mode, while copper foil maintains high - level prosperity. The CSPT decided not to set a reference figure for the spot copper concentrate processing fee in Q1 2026. Downstream procurement sentiment is weak, and the spot discount has widened [1]. [Futures and Spot Market Conditions] - Futures: Shanghai Copper opened high and closed low but rose during the day. - Spot: Today, the spot premium/discount in East China was - 330 yuan/ton, and in South China, it was - 180 yuan/ton. On December 24, 2025, the LME official price was $12,218/ton, and the spot premium was + $35/ton [4]. [Supply Side] - As of December 22, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.98 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.58 cents/pound [8]. [Fundamental Tracking] - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 59,100 tons, an increase of 6,861 tons from the previous period. As of December 22, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 98,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 157,000 tons, an increase of 825 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 471,600 short tons, an increase of 4,276 short tons from the previous period [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in copper prices is driven by a complex interplay of demand and strategic financial actions rather than solely by market demand [1][2][3]. Group 1: Copper Price Dynamics - Copper prices have skyrocketed from under $8,000 per ton to nearly $11,000 per ton in a few months [1]. - The increase in copper prices is attributed to the anticipated demand from the global energy transition, solar power plants, and AI data centers [2]. - COMEX copper inventories have surged to 479,540 short tons, significantly exceeding historical levels, with an increase of over 300% from 100,000 tons at the end of last year [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Inventory Changes - The rapid increase in COMEX copper inventory is linked to the U.S. initiating a Section 232 investigation into copper imports, causing market fears of potential tariffs [5][6]. - As a result, global traders rushed to ship copper to the U.S., leading to a dramatic drop in copper inventories at the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange [7]. - This inventory shift has created a tight supply situation in Asia and Europe, igniting market panic and driving prices higher [7][8]. Group 3: Financial Manipulation and Market Sentiment - Major international investment banks have begun to promote copper as the "new oil" of the energy era, predicting prices could rise to $12,500 to $15,000 per ton [9][10]. - A significant withdrawal of 40,000 tons of copper from the London Metal Exchange has sent a strong signal to the market that copper is in high demand [11][12]. - The resulting market sentiment has led to a rapid increase in copper prices, akin to a "rocket" effect [13]. Group 4: Implications for China - China, as the largest copper consumer, relies on imports for over 80% of its copper needs, with annual consumption around 15 million tons [15]. - Rising copper prices will translate into increased costs for Chinese manufacturing, potentially leading to inflationary pressures [15][16]. - Two scenarios emerge for Chinese manufacturers: either reduce production, which could further inflate prices, or continue production at the risk of eroding profit margins [16]. Group 5: Strategic Responses and Financial Sovereignty - The U.S. strategy appears to aim at undermining China's manufacturing sector through financial manipulation rather than direct confrontation [19][20]. - The dominance of the U.S. dollar in global commodity trading allows for significant control over pricing and market dynamics [25][26]. - China is responding by promoting the use of the renminbi in copper futures trading and securing copper resources globally through investments and partnerships [28][30]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The establishment of a "petro-yuan" and "copper-yuan" system is seen as essential for reducing reliance on the dollar and enhancing China's financial sovereignty [31]. - China's advancements in manufacturing, technology, and trade position it as a formidable global player, necessitating a focus on gaining financial pricing power [34][35]. - Accelerating the internationalization of the renminbi is crucial for improving China's economic prospects and mitigating the impact of external financial pressures [36][38].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 24, 2025, Shanghai copper opened higher and moved higher, rising during the day. The production of electrolytic copper in China in November increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and SMM expects a further increase in December. The profit of copper products was squeezed this week, the production enthusiasm of copper strips was weak, and the market trading activity was suppressed. Copper foil maintained a high - prosperity level. The zero long - term pricing of mine processing fees last week boosted market sentiment, and the Fed's game and the rise of precious metals were beneficial to copper prices, but the weak procurement sentiment of downstream enterprises may lead to a spot price correction [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons, an increase of 11.76%. SMM expects the electrolytic copper production in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month (5.96%) and 6.69% year - on - year. The profit of copper products was squeezed this week, the production enthusiasm of copper strips was weak, and the production rhythm of enterprises slowed down. Copper tube enterprises were restricted by capital pressure and mostly chose to wait and see. Copper foil maintained a high - prosperity level due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and new - energy vehicles. The zero long - term pricing of mine processing fees last week boosted market sentiment, and the Fed's game and the rise of precious metals were beneficial to copper prices, but the weak procurement sentiment of downstream enterprises may lead to a spot price correction [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved higher, rising during the day. Spot: On December 24, 2025, the spot premium in East China was - 290 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 150 yuan/ton. On December 22, 2025, the LME official price was $12,039/ton, and the spot premium was + $31/ton [4]. 3. Supply Side - As of December 22, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - $43.98/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.58 cents/pound [8]. 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 52,200 tons, an increase of 2,679 tons from the previous period. As of December 22, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 98,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 157,000 tons, an increase of 825 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 471,600 short tons, an increase of 4,276 short tons from the previous period [11].

Report Summary Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] Core View - The copper price in the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened high and moved low, showing a relatively strong performance during the day. The SMM predicts an increase in electrolytic copper production in December. The copper foil sector maintains a high level of prosperity, while the production enthusiasm of copper strips and tubes is weak. The market sentiment was boosted by the zero long - term agreement price of mine - end processing fees last week, but the downstream's weak purchasing sentiment due to year - end capital chain tension and tax - related factors, along with the uncertainties of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Federal Reserve, have increased market risk - aversion sentiment. Therefore, the Shanghai copper market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [1] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons, a growth rate of 11.76%. SMM expects the electrolytic copper production in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month (5.96%) and 6.69% year - on - year. Copper product profits were squeezed this week, and the production enthusiasm of copper strips was weak, with capacity utilization declining. Copper tube enterprises were restricted by capital pressure and mostly chose to wait and see. Copper foil maintained a high level of prosperity due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and the pre - demand of new - energy vehicles [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened high and moved low, showing a relatively strong performance during the day. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 190 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 125 yuan/ton. On December 22, 2025, the LME official price was $11,930/ton, and the spot premium was + $10/ton [4] 3. Supply Side - As of December 22, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - $43.98/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.58 cents/pound [8] 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 49,500 tons, an increase of 1,001 tons from the previous period. As of December 22, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 98,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 157,800 tons, a decrease of 3,875 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 466,900 short tons, an increase of 2,640 short tons from the previous period [11]

有色贵金属市场热度持续，铜价持续上行试探新高 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：SHFE主力合约价格12月22日收于94040元/吨，涨幅 1.25%，延续上涨趋势；LME0-3基差由12月16日的贴水13.89美元/吨转为12 月19日的升水4.73美元/吨，基差显著走强。 持仓与成交 ：LME持仓量在2025年12月19日减少2759手至342091手，成交 量未直接提供，但价格波动显示市场活跃度较高，成交可能收缩。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：2025年11月铜废料进口环比增长5.87%至20.81万吨，但废铜锭进 口环比减少18%，阳极铜进口环比增加5.60%至5.83万吨；哈萨克斯坦矿业 公司2026年铜精矿招标可能增加未来供应；国务院安委办打击盗采矿产资 源政策可能收紧国内矿山供应。 需求端 ：铜箔进口环比增加9.23%至6653.52吨，出口环比增加11.47%至 5994.15吨，铜漆包线出口同比增长22.62%，显示消费电子和汽车领域需求 强劲；但铜锌合金出口同比下滑76.13%，覆铜板出口同比减少28.03%，建 筑领域需求偏弱。 库存端 ：LME库存从2 ...

锡产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 2011】1292号 2025年12月23日 #NAME? V期现日报 厂家发期货 | 2025年12月23日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 340600 | 337100 | 3500 | 1.04% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | -50 | -50 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 341100 | 337600 | 3500 | 1.04% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -11.00 | -62.00 | 51.00 | 82.26% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -13815.90 | -13213.45 | -602.45 | -4.56% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比 ...

研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 94,320.00 | +1140.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 11,975.00 | +93.50↑ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -50.00 | -10.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 246,790.00 | +9138.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -33,302.00 | -996.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 160,400.00 | -3875.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 95,805.00 | +6416.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 56,450.00 | -5100.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 48,542.00 | -2856.00↓ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global economy in 2026 is expected to grow at around 3%, with loose global liquidity benefiting low and middle - income countries. The K - shaped economy in the US deepens, with AI investment as a new growth driver, while China's economic transformation shows initial results, and Europe's economy is under pressure due to the Russia - Ukraine war and trade tariffs [1][33] - For the copper market, supply is limited due to shortages in copper concentrates and refined production, and demand shows a mix of old and new trends. The US tariff expectation distorts global demand, and the price is expected to range between $11,000 - $12,500 [1][68] - In the aluminum market, China is approaching its electrolytic aluminum production capacity ceiling, and overseas production is restricted by power bottlenecks. Demand remains stable, and the supply gap is expected to widen, with the price expected to range between $2,700 - $3,200 [2][79] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Situation US Economy - In 2025, AI investment contributed to 1/3 of GDP growth, driving the stock market up. In 2026, AI investment will continue, but the traditional manufacturing industry will face more pressure, with the K - shaped economic structure deepening. Fiscal and monetary policies are both loose, and GDP growth is expected to increase slightly. The biggest uncertainty is the possible bursting of the AI investment bubble [5] - Consumer confidence has declined to a 20 - year low, with consumption growth concentrated in high - income groups. The employment market is expected to slow down but remain generally stable, with the unemployment rate slightly increasing. Manufacturing is in a weak recovery, and the "Big Beautiful Act" will increase the deficit and government spending. The market expects two more interest rate cuts in 2026 [9][12][16] Chinese Economy - In 2025, China implemented an active fiscal policy, and economic transformation achieved initial results. GDP growth is expected to reach around 5%. In 2026, the fiscal support will not be less than in 2025, and the focus will be on promoting domestic demand. GDP growth is expected to slow down slightly to 4.6% [17][20] - Real estate investment continues to shrink, and the contribution of the real estate industry to GDP has dropped from 30% to 10%. Industrial investment has paused after high - speed growth. Central fiscal investment will support fixed - asset investment. Industrial and export growth is expected to remain high, and measures to promote domestic demand will be strengthened [20][25][27] European Economy - In 2025, the Russia - Ukraine war and Trump's tariff war affected the European economy. The European Central Bank cut interest rates four times, and Germany launched a 500 - billion - euro defense plan. GDP growth is expected to be 1.3% in 2025 and slow down slightly in 2026 [29][32][35] - The biggest uncertainty in 2026 is the Russia - Ukraine war. If post - war relations are handled well, the economy may grow strongly. Global liquidity is expected to be loose, which will ease the debt pressure of low and middle - income countries [33] 3.2 New Demand Growth Points for Copper and Aluminum New Energy and AI Investment - The new energy industry has become a major growth source for non - ferrous metal demand. By 2030, the consumption of new energy in copper and aluminum demand is expected to reach over 30% and 25% respectively [36] - The growth of new energy vehicles will slow down. In 2026, the global production of new energy vehicles is expected to be 23 - 25 million, with a copper demand increase of 200,000 tons and an aluminum demand increase of 600,000 tons [36][37] - Photovoltaic growth will slow down. In 2026, the global new installed capacity is expected to be 610 - 650GW. The copper and aluminum demand growth will be less than 100,000 tons and 200,000 - 300,000 tons respectively [37][38] - Energy storage has become a new growth point. In 2026, the global energy storage installed capacity is expected to reach 377GWh, with a copper and aluminum demand increase of 65,000 tons and 200,000 tons respectively [39] - Data center construction is also a new growth point. The global data center copper demand is expected to increase by 100,000 tons annually, and China's data center copper demand may approach 1 million tons by 2030 [39] - The power sector's demand for grid upgrade and transformation is increasing. In 2026, China's main grid investment is expected to grow by about 10%, and the US is expected to invest over $1.1 trillion in power from 2025 - 2030 [40][41][43] Traditional Demand - The demand from the construction industry for copper and aluminum is expected to decline by about 15%. The demand for home appliances will slow down, with a production growth rate of about 2% in 2026. The demand from medium - income countries is growing [44][45][50] 3.3 Copper Market Supply Constraints - In 2026, copper concentrate production will increase, but refined copper production growth will slow down significantly. Long - term supply is limited due to factors such as the lack of new large mines and the aging of existing mines [51][54][55] - In 2026, new copper mine projects are expected to increase production by 570,000 tons. Chinese refined copper production growth will be limited by the shortage of concentrates, and overseas refineries may reduce production. The supply of scrap copper is expected to be tight [54][57][59][60] Demand and Price Outlook - In 2026, global refined copper supply is expected to have a shortage of 150,000 tons, and the shortage may expand to 300,000 tons in 2027. The US tariff expectation distorts global demand, making the US a high - price area for copper and intensifying the supply gap in non - US regions [61][63][67] - The copper price in 2026 is expected to range between $11,000 - $12,500, and the upward price elasticity depends on tariff expectations and speculative funds [68] 3.4 Aluminum Market Supply Situation - The supply of bauxite and alumina is in a high - growth period, and over - supply will intensify in 2026. The price of alumina will fluctuate within a narrow range around the cash cost of high - cost refineries [69][70][74] - China is approaching the 45.5 - million - ton capacity ceiling for electrolytic aluminum. In 2026, domestic production is expected to increase by 800,000 tons, and growth will basically stagnate after 2027. Overseas, new projects are mainly in Indonesia, but power bottlenecks are significant, and production growth has high uncertainty [74][76][77] Demand and Price Outlook - In 2026, global primary aluminum demand growth is expected to be slightly lower than in 2025. In the long term, new energy and emerging country demand will support a 2.7% - 3% compound growth rate [78][79] - The supply is expected to turn into a small shortage in 2026, and the shortage may expand after 2027. The aluminum price is expected to range between $2,700 - $3,200 (or 21,000 - 24,000 yuan) [79]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 92,400.00 | -1680.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 11,646.00 | +131.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -90.00 | 0.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 165,808.00 | -22841.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -32,229.00 | +3407.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 165,900.00 | +50.00↑ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 89,389.00 | +484.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 66,000.00 | -650.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 42,226.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 92,265.00 | -1330.00↓ ...

光期研究 2026 年有色金属 策略报告 光大期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 2026 年度策略报告 目录 铜：乘 AI 风起 审慎乐观 ........................... 2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 铝：渐入佳境 铝有乾坤 ........................... 36 镍&不锈钢：破而后立 蛰伏待机 ............ 65 2026 年度策略报告 铜：乘 AI 风起 审慎乐观 有色研究总监：展大鹏 年报摘要： 风险提示 基本面：COMEX 铜溢价大幅转向、大型铜矿投产或复产提前落地、新 能源领域不及预期； 宏观面：美联储政策突然转向风险、日央行连续加息风险以及美股科技 股泡沫破灭风险； 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 2026 年度策略报告 2025 年行情回顾 2025 年，LME 铜价重心上移，伦铜波动区间在 8105.5-11334 美元/吨， 年结算均价约在 9834 美元/吨，较去年上涨 5.6%；沪铜主力合约波动区 间在 71320-89920 元/吨， ...