1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract had a slight pullback, with a decrease in open interest, a spot premium, and a strengthening basis [2]. - At the mining end of the fundamentals, the spot index of copper concentrate TC is in the negative range, and the concentrate quotation remains firm, providing cost support for copper prices [2]. - In terms of supply, the supply of scrap copper and copper concentrate is relatively tight, which restricts the smelting capacity to some extent. Coupled with macro - factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices are operating in a high - level range [2]. - On the demand side, the strong copper prices suppress the downstream purchasing sentiment, and the trading volume in the spot market is relatively light. At the terminal, the boost to demand in the peak season has not yet appeared, and the consumption recovery is relatively slow [2]. - In the options market, the purchase - to - sell ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.33, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0385. The sentiment in the options market is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased [2]. - Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position range - bound trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 80,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,006 dollars/ton, a decrease of 120.5 dollars [2]. - The inter - month spread of the main contract was 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 147,464 lots, a decrease of 17,752 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 11,447 lots, an increase of 1 lot; the LME copper inventory was 150,950 tons, a decrease of 1,675 tons [2]. - The inventory of cathode copper in the SHFE was 94,054 tons, an increase of 12,203 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants were 15,800 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons [2]. - The SHFE warrants of cathode copper were 33,291 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 81,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 81,235 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 56 dollars/ton, with no change; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 53.5 dollars/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract was 560 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 59.26 dollars/ton, an increase of 2.67 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 0.2105 million tons; the copper smelter's roughing fee (TC) was - 41.3 dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 0.45 dollars [2]. - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 71,530 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 250 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 72,230 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 250 yuan [2]. - The processing fee for blister copper in the south was 700 yuan/ton, with no change; the processing fee for blister copper in the north was 700 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 0.031 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 425,000 tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons [2]. - The social inventory of copper was 418,200 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 56,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 590 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,650 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2219 million tons, an increase of 0.0526 million tons; the cumulative grid infrastructure investment was 331.497 billion yuan, an increase of 40.431 billion yuan [2]. - The cumulative real estate development investment was 6,030.919 billion yuan, an increase of 672.942 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,250,287,100 pieces, a decrease of 438,933,600 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 8.37%, an increase of 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 7.79%, an increase of 0.06% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 14.07%, an increase of 0.0015; the purchase - to - sell ratio of at - the - money options was 1.33, a decrease of 0.0385 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption", supporting cross - border cooperation between high - quality consumption resources and well - known IPs, etc. [2]. - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations for the third consecutive month. Real retail sales adjusted for inflation increased by 2.1% year - on - year, achieving 11 consecutive months of positive growth [2]. - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng pointed out in an article that the international dominant currency has the attribute of a global public good, and there are inherent instability problems when borne by a single sovereign currency. The international monetary system may evolve towards a pattern of co - existence, competition, and checks and balances among a few sovereign currencies [2]. - As of the end of August, the passenger vehicle industry inventory in China was 3.16 million units, a decrease of 0.13 million units from the previous month. From May to August, car companies more rationally controlled production, reducing the inventory pressure on dealers [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Copper - Copper pricing will return to macro trading. Without a clear recession expectation in the US, medium - and long - term supply - demand contradictions provide bottom support. In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate strongly under a loose background. The main contract is expected to range between 80,000 - 82,000 [1] Aluminum - For alumina, in the short term, the main contract will fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium term, if cost support weakens and demand does not improve significantly, prices may decline. For aluminum, in the short term, prices will maintain a strong - side fluctuation, with the main contract ranging from 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. If demand improvement fails to meet expectations, prices may fall [3] Aluminum Alloy - As the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season approaches, spot prices are expected to remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow further. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4] Zinc - Due to the expected supply surplus, the upside space for Shanghai zinc is limited. In the short term, prices may rise driven by the macro environment, but the fundamental support for continuous upward movement is insufficient. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract ranging from 21,800 - 22,800 [7] Tin - Supply remains tight, and with the strengthening of the US interest - rate cut expectation, tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level. The operating range is expected to be between 265,000 - 285,000 [9] Nickel - Macro sentiment is strengthening, costs are supported, and there are no obvious short - term supply - demand contradictions, but the inventory reduction pace has slowed down. In the medium term, the supply surplus will limit the upside space. The main contract is expected to fluctuate in a strong - side range of 120,000 - 125,000 [11] Stainless Steel - The macro environment is improving, raw material prices are firm, and inventory pressure is easing. However, the peak - season demand has not been significantly released. In the short term, the price will fluctuate within a range, with the main contract operating between 12,800 - 13,400 [13] Lithium Carbonate - Affected by positive policy information, the market sentiment is strong. The supply - demand relationship is in a tight balance. In the short term, the main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the price center ranging from 70,000 - 75,000 [14] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.22% to 81,120 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton. Other copper - related prices and premiums also showed different changes [1] Fundamental Data - In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, electrolytic copper imports were 29.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price remained unchanged at 20,950 yuan/ton; alumina prices in different regions decreased slightly [3] Fundamental Data - In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [3] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions remained unchanged. The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in different regions increased [4] Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [4] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,230 yuan/ton. The import loss was 3,294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.09 yuan/ton [7] Fundamental Data - In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. In July, refined zinc imports were 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35% [7] Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.33% to 272,400 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 277.36% to - 132.00 US dollars/ton [9] Fundamental Data - In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.49% to 123,600 yuan/ton; the import loss decreased by 18.32% to 1,507 yuan/ton [11] Supply - Demand and Inventory - In August, China's refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. Refined nickel imports were 17,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46% [11] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.38% to 13,200 yuan/ton; the futures - spot price difference increased by 14.29% to 400 yuan/ton [13] Fundamental Data - In August, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. Stainless - steel imports were 7.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.30% [13] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.55% to 72,850 yuan/ton; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.57% to 70,600 yuan/ton [14] Fundamental Data - In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. Lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% [14]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - The pricing of copper will return to macro trading. Without a clear recession expectation in the US, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support. In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate strongly under the background of loose trading. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 80,000 - 82,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, in the short term, the main contract will fluctuate in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium term, if the cost support moves down and demand does not improve significantly, prices still have downward pressure. For aluminum, in the short term, prices will maintain a strong - side shock, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. If subsequent demand improvement falls short of expectations, aluminum prices still face the risk of rising and then falling [3]. Aluminum Alloy - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, it is expected that the spot price will remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Against the background of improved interest - rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metals prices are generally strong, while zinc shows relatively weak performance due to the expectation of loose supply. In the short term, zinc prices may rise driven by the macro - economy, but the fundamentals lack the elasticity to support continuous upward movement. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 21,800 - 22,800 [7]. Tin - The supply side remains tight, and combined with the strengthening of the US interest - rate cut expectation, it is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level. The subsequent operation range is expected to be 265,000 - 285,000. If the supply recovers smoothly, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [9]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment is strong, the cost has support, there is no obvious short - term supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down. In the medium term, the loose supply restricts the upward space of prices. The main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of 120,000 - 125,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment improves, raw material prices are firm, and cost support is strengthened, and the inventory pressure eases. However, the current peak - season demand has not been effectively realized, and the fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals maintain a tight balance. Policy window period boosts macro - expectations, and strong demand provides support for prices. In the short term, the main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 81,120 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month [1]. - In July, electrolytic copper imports were 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - Alumina (Shandong) average price is 2,970 yuan/ton, down 0.34% [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month [3]. - In August, electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - The scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 6.98% [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month [4]. - In August, the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7]. - The import loss is 3,294 yuan/ton, down 9.09 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month [7]. - In July, refined zinc imports were 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 272,400 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [9]. - LME 0 - 3 premium is - 132.00 US dollars/ton, down 277.36% [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month [9]. - In July, SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,600 yuan/ton, up 0.49% [11]. - The futures import loss is - 1,507 yuan/ton, up 18.32% [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in August was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month [11]. - Refined nickel imports in August were 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,200 yuan/ton, down 0.38% [13]. - The futures - spot price difference is 400 yuan/ton, up 14.29% [13]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) in August was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month [13]. - In August, stainless - steel imports were 7.30 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [14]. - The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [14]. Fundamental Data - In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month [14]. - In July, lithium carbonate imports were 13,845 tons, down 21.77% month - on - month [14].

Group 1: Economic Overview - US consumer confidence has reached its lowest level since May, with a preliminary index of 55.4 for September, down 4.8% from August and down 21% year-on-year [1][4] - The current economic conditions index for September is 61.2, a decrease of 0.8% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, while the consumer expectations index is at 51.8, down 7.3% month-on-month and 30.4% year-on-year [1][4] - Domestic economic conditions in China remain stable, with industrial production growing by 5.2% year-on-year in August [2] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - There has been a continuous inflow of imported copper, but expectations for domestic copper supply are decreasing, leading to a build-up in electrolytic copper inventories [1][4] - As of September 15, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.99 million tons to 15.42 million tons, with inventory rising in regions outside Shanghai [3] - The average price for SMM 1 electrolytic copper is reported between 80,780 and 81,100 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease in the premium over the previous trading day [3][5] Group 3: Aluminum Market Analysis - The supply of aluminum has seen a slight increase, while terminal consumption is recovering; however, high aluminum prices are suppressing downstream consumption [1][4] - As of September 15, the domestic mainstream consumption area for electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory is 63.7 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons from the previous week [3][6] - The price for SMM A00 aluminum is reported at 20,950 yuan per ton, down 70 yuan from the previous trading day [3][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 79,500 - 82,000 yuan/ton. The short - term improvement in interest - rate cut expectations boosts copper prices, but the long - term impact of interest - rate cuts on copper prices depends on the reasons and macro background. The fundamentals show a state of "weak reality + stable expectations" [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand stimulation is limited. The price is under pressure from inventory accumulation, but the downside space is relatively limited. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate around the realization of peak - season expectations and actual consumption, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. If demand improvement is less than expected, the price may fall after rising [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract reference operating range is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5][6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton. Under the background of improved interest - rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metal prices are generally strong, but zinc shows relatively weak performance. The supply is expected to be loose, and the upward space is limited, but the price may be driven up by the macro - environment in the short term [8]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in a strong range, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is favorable, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices [13]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,400 yuan/ton. The macro - expectations are improved, and the cost is supported, but the peak - season demand has not been significantly released [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, with the main price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton. Policy windows boost the macro - expectations, and the demand is optimistic, while the supply path is becoming clearer [17]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.23% to 80,940 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 6.10% to 2,064 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss was - 139 yuan/ton, a decrease of 121.84 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% month - on - month; in July, the electrolytic copper import volume was 296,900 tons, a decrease of 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.33% to 20,950 yuan/ton, and the alumina average price in various regions decreased slightly. The import profit and loss was - 1,745 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7326 million tons, and the aluminum profile production rate increased by 1.89% to 54%. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 485,000 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained at 21,050 yuan/ton, and the price difference between scrap and refined aluminum in various regions increased [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a decrease of 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 271,000 tons, an increase of 1.88% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot remained unchanged at 22,230 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 3,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 480.12 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, an increase of 3.88% month - on - month; in July, the refined zinc import volume was 17,900 tons, a decrease of 50.35% month - on - month [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.22% to 273,300 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 40.00% to 350 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import volume was 10,278 tons, a decrease of 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, an increase of 15.42% month - on - month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.12% to 123,000 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 2.22% to 2,300 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - The SHFE inventory increased by 2.07% to 26,986 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.27% to 224,484 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.76% to 13,250 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 1.14% to 13,300 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% month - on - month; the stainless steel net export volume was 343,200 tons, an increase of 22.37% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 72,450 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.13% to 74,150 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, an increase of 4.55% month - on - month; the lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, an increase of 8.25% month - on - month [17].

铜周报 20250914 基本面支撑有限，宏观向上， 沪铜偏强 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 1 影响因素分析 | 2 | | --- | | 01 | | 02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价格数据 | 04 | 基本面数据 | 07 | | 03 宏观经济数据 | 19 | | | 07 3 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 下游采购情绪较低落，铜现货升贴水承压 本周LME铜0-3M贴水周环比略有扩大 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 6 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数均价环比跌0.45美元/吨至-41.3美元/吨，仍低 8 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据SMM，本周十港铜精矿库存环比增0.44万吨至69.27万吨 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 精废价差周环比走强 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 9月 ...

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年09月14日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源 SMM ，iFinD同花顺 国泰君安期货研究 ： 铜：供应端逻辑发酵，且美联储降息预期增强，支撑价格 强弱分析：偏强，价格区间：79000-83000元/吨 废铜进口从盈利转为亏损 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 2022-01 2022-03 2022-05 2022-07 2022-09 2022-11 2023-01 2023-03 2023-05 2023-07 2023-09 2023-11 2024-01 2024-03 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 元 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Macroscopically, a September interest rate cut is likely, but its impact on copper prices depends on the reason and background. The "stagflation-like" environment in the US restricts the scope of rate cuts. In the short term, rate cuts boost copper's financial attributes, raising the bottom price, but the upside is limited. - Fundamentally, it presents a state of "weak reality + stable expectations." The demand may weaken marginally in the second half of the year, but the supply - demand deterioration is limited. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to improve marginally, and the terminal demand is resilient. Copper prices are expected to at least remain volatile, and a new upward cycle requires the resonance of commodity and financial attributes. The reference range for the main contract is 79,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand." The short - term import of bauxite is tight, but new production capacity is continuously being put into operation. The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term. - For aluminum, macro factors support the price, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. However, the price increase is restricted by the 20,900 - 21,000 yuan/ton pressure range. It is expected to fluctuate around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the expectation of Fed rate cuts boosts the sentiment of commodities. The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is affected by tax policy adjustments, and the demand has slightly recovered but needs verification. The price of ADC12 is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The improvement of rate - cut expectations boosts zinc prices. The supply side is expected to be loose, and the demand side is about to enter the peak season. The low global inventory supports the price. In the short term, the price may be driven by macro factors, but the upside is limited, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. The spot market transactions are differentiated. The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; otherwise, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the reference range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of the rate - cut rhythm remains unchanged. Industrially, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The profit of stainless steel is in deficit, and the demand is weak. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market shows a weak trend. The raw material prices are firm, and the supply pressure exists. The demand improvement is not obvious, and the social inventory is slowly decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is optimistic as it enters the peak season. The overall inventory has decreased. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the main contract reference range of 70,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [15][16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose by 0.54% to 80,175 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 25 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread and other indicators also changed to varying degrees. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, the import volume was 296,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The inventory of various types also changed [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.53% to 20,860 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of alumina in different regions also changed. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 7.7382 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 373,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The inventory also showed corresponding changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose by 0.48% to 20,960 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference of various types increased. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy increased [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose by 0.41% to 22,180 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. In July, the import volume was 17,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35%. The inventory also changed [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose by 0.37% to 271,100 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The inventory of various types also changed [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased slightly. The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also changed. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production of Chinese refined nickel products increased by 1.26% month - on - month, and the import volume decreased by 8.46%. The inventory of various types also changed [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained unchanged. The raw material prices remained stable. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 3.83% month - on - month, and the net export volume increased by 22.37%. The inventory decreased [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The prices of lithium - related raw materials also decreased. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production increased by 4.55% month - on - month, and the demand increased by 8.25%. The inventory decreased [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Macroscopically, a September interest rate cut is likely, but its impact on copper prices depends on the reason and background. The "stagflation - like" environment in the US restricts the rate - cut space. In the short - term, the rate - cut expectation boosts the financial attribute of copper, but the upside is limited. - Fundamentally, it shows a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". The copper demand may weaken marginally in the second half of the year, but the supply elasticity is insufficient. With the arrival of the peak season, the demand will improve marginally. Without a clear US recession expectation, copper prices will at least remain volatile, and a new upward cycle requires the resonance of commodity and financial attributes. The main contract is expected to range from 79,500 to 81,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". Although the short - term import of bauxite is tight, the new production capacity is continuously put into operation, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum is limited. The price is under pressure, but the downside is limited as it approaches the cost zone. It is expected to oscillate between 2,900 and 3,200 yuan/ton. - For aluminum, the macro - environment provides support, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. However, the price increase is restricted by the 20,900 - 21,000 yuan/ton range. It is expected to oscillate around the actual peak - season demand, with the main contract ranging from 20,600 to 21,200 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the Fed's rate - cut expectation boosts the sentiment of bulk commodities. The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is affected by uncertain tax policies, and the demand is slightly warming but needs verification. The inventory is still accumulating, and the import resources are limited. The ADC12 price is expected to remain high and volatile, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 to 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The US inflation data improves the rate - cut expectation and boosts zinc prices. The supply side is in an upward cycle of production resumption, and the smelting profit is repaired. The demand side is about to enter the peak season, and the global inventory is low. In the short - term, zinc prices may be driven by the macro - environment, but the upside is limited. It is expected to oscillate, with the main contract ranging from 21,500 to 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the processing fees are low. The actual ore output from Myanmar is expected to be postponed to the fourth quarter. The demand is weak, and the traditional consumption decline cannot be offset by the growth in emerging fields. The spot market is divided. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with the operating range from 265,000 to 285,000 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - The macro - environment is generally stable, and the cost provides some support. There is no obvious short - term supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking pace slows down. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside. The price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract ranging from 118,000 to 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment is positive, with the Fed's rate - cut expectation rising and domestic policies being supportive. The raw material prices are firm, but the stainless - steel profit is in deficit, which will suppress nickel - iron. The supply is under pressure as the September production schedule is expected to increase. The demand improvement has not been significantly reflected, and the inventory reduction is slow. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract ranging from 12,600 to 13,400 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures market oscillates and strengthens in the afternoon with the improvement of the macro - sentiment. The fundamentals are in a tight balance. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. The whole - chain de - stocking is accelerating. The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with the main contract ranging from 70,000 to 72,000 yuan/ton [15][16]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 80,175 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.54%. The spot premium and other price - related indicators also changed. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.80% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The import volume in July decreased by 1.20%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 3.14% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 20,860 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.53%. The alumina prices in different regions showed slight declines [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The electrolytic aluminum production increased by 0.30%. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.16% week - on - week [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 20,960 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.48%. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions increased [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 1.60%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 1.88%. The regenerative aluminum alloy inventory increased by 33.83% week - on - week [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,180 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.41%. The import loss increased [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. The import volume in July decreased by 50.35%. The galvanizing start - up rate increased by 5.98% week - on - week [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 271,100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.37%. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 55.74% [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 680 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import decreased by 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production increased by 15.42%. The SHEF inventory increased by 2.74% week - on - week [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,450 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.08%. The production cost of different nickel - related products changed [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The Chinese refined nickel product output increased by 1.26% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.87% week - on - week [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The 304/2B stainless - steel price remained stable. The futures - spot price difference increased by 11.11% [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production decreased by 3.83% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 2.10% week - on - week [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased to 72,850 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.82%. The lithium - related raw material prices also declined [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 440 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The demand increased by 8.25%. The total inventory decreased by 3.75% [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - In the short term, interest rate cuts boost the financial attribute of copper, lifting the bottom center of copper prices. However, without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upside space is also limited. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and copper prices will at least fluctuate. To enter a new upward cycle, the commodity and financial attributes of copper need to resonate. The reference range for the main contract is 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term. For aluminum, the macro - environment provides support, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. The price is expected to fluctuate around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand, with the main contract reference range of 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the spot price is expected to remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further narrow. The reference operating range for the main contract this week is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - In the short term, zinc prices may fluctuate. To continue to rebound upwards, there needs to be an unexpected improvement in demand and a continuous improvement in interest rate cut expectations under non - recession conditions. To break through downwards, the TC needs to strengthen unexpectedly and refined zinc needs to continuously accumulate inventory. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Supply remains tight, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery falls short of expectations, tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - Macro - environment is generally stable, with some cost support in the short term. There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking pace has slowed down. The price decline space is limited, and the medium - term supply is still abundant, restricting the upside space. The main contract is expected to adjust within the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Raw material prices are firm, providing cost support, and inventory pressure has eased. However, the peak - season demand has not been significantly released, and the fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate within the range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [14][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The resumption of production expectations affect market sentiment, and strong demand provides support for the price floor. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the performance of the 72,000 - yuan pressure level for the main contract [19]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,745 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 104 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109.58 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 1,302 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM Southwest ADC12 price was 20,900 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,090 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 2,532 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.77 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price was 270,100 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 16,422.39 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,365.69 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,550 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day. The futures import profit and loss was - 1,805 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price was 12,700 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1.54% from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% from the previous month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 68.83 million tons, a decrease of 3.14% from the previous week [1]. - **Aluminum**: In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, an increase of 1.15% from the previous month. The aluminum profile开工率 was 53.00%, an increase of 1.92% from the previous week [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a decrease of 1.60% from the previous month. The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 was 53.41%, a decrease of 0.35% from the previous week [5]. - **Zinc**: In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, an increase of 3.88% from the previous month. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory was 15.21 million tons, an increase of 3.96% from the previous week [8]. - **Tin**: In July, domestic tin ore imports decreased by 13.71% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory increased by 2.74% week - on - week [11]. - **Nickel**: Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26% from the previous month. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.87% week - on - week [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% from the previous month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 4.72% week - on - week [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, an increase of 4.55% from the previous month. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 3.75% month - on - month [19].