1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Nickel and Stainless Steel - The expectation of the nickel ore end in the long - term is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity of nickel prices. Global refined nickel inventories are increasing marginally. Stainless steel supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [4][5]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has a fast short - term warehouse receipt clearance, but the upside space is limited. Polysilicon should maintain a short - selling strategy. The fundamentals of both show an oversupply situation [30][34][35]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium is increasing while the demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be under pressure, showing a weak oscillation. Opportunities for short - selling at high prices and reverse spreads should be awaited [62][63][64]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm oil is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term pressure comes from the resumption of production, and the strategy is mainly based on spread expressions. There are potential long - term bullish factors. Soybean oil is also in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern, with potential upward space after the third quarter [88][89][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The logic of the ore end is dull, and the smelting end restricts the upside space. The global refined nickel inventory is increasing marginally, and the nickel - iron is in a state of surplus and inventory accumulation. The price of nickel is affected by factors such as the expected increase in Indonesian quotas and the possible removal of the Philippine raw ore export ban [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,437 tons to 36,471 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 7,602 tons to 205,140 tons. The mid - June nickel - iron inventory increased by 58% year - on - year and 10% month - on - month [6][7]. - **Market News**: There are various events such as the potential suspension of nickel exports from Canada to the US, the trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, the resumption of production of a nickel smelter, and the shutdown of a cold - rolling mill [10]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Production and imports are decreasing marginally, the inventory pressure remains, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. In the long term, the price center may be difficult to lift significantly [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total social inventory of stainless steel increased by 1.04% week - on - week, with increases in both cold - rolled and hot - rolled inventories [7]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: The industrial silicon futures rebounded slightly this week, and the spot price remained stable. The futures closed at 7,390 yuan/ton on Friday [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The industry inventory is de - stocking again. The supply is expected to increase as factories in Xinjiang and Sichuan continue to resume production. The demand from downstream industries has short - term increases in some aspects but is still mainly based on rigid demand [31][32]. - **Future Outlook**: The strategy is to short at high prices. The follow - up focus is on the warehouse receipt situation. The high inventory restricts the upside space of the futures price [34]. Polysilicon - **Price Movement**: The polysilicon futures declined significantly this week, and the spot price is also expected to decrease [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The upstream inventory is slightly de - stocking. The supply is expected to increase as some factories resume production, while the terminal demand is declining, and the silicon wafer production is expected to be adjusted downward [31][32][33]. - **Future Outlook**: The strategy is to short at high prices. The price is expected to continue to decline towards the real cost line [35]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The main contract of carbonate lithium oscillated downward. The 2507 contract closed at 59,820 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 60,400 yuan/ton [62]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing as the production and operating rate of the smelting end are growing. The demand is weakening as new energy vehicle sales show no significant increase, and the energy storage demand is expected to decline after reaching a peak in May. The inventory is accumulating [63]. - **Future Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - selling at high prices after the long - buying intention of the near - month contract is clear and reverse spreads after the end of June are recommended [64][65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Palm Oil - **Last Week's Logic**: The 09 contract rose by 4.86% due to the sudden positive news of the US biodiesel obligation and the geopolitical tension in the Middle East [88]. - **This Week's Logic**: The production in Malaysia is expected to be flat or slightly decrease in June. The export is strong, and there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in June. It is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term strategy is based on spread expressions, and long - buying can be considered at low levels before the fourth quarter [89]. Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Logic**: The 09 contract rose by 4.75% due to the sudden positive news of the US biodiesel obligation and the geopolitical tension in the Middle East [88]. - **This Week's Logic**: Internationally, the US EPA's policy will lead to an increase in the demand for soybean oil. Domestically, the inventory is accumulating currently but may reach a peak in July. It is also in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern, and long - buying opportunities can be observed in the fourth quarter [90][91].

2025 年 6 月 16 日 宏观与资源端共振 镍价低位震荡 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 镍周报 ⚫ 宏观面，美国通胀数据进一步走弱，美联储目标实现在即。 劳动力市场相对平稳，宏观数据仍向积极方向买进。市场聚 焦中美贸易谈判，谈判取得一定成果，部分稀土出口份额 获批。特朗普表示，若伙伴国表现出足够诚意，美国关税豁 免可考虑延期，但非必要行为。 ⚫ 基本面：菲律宾两院决定取消最终 ...

2025年06月15日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 2 | | 工业硅：上游继续复产，空配思路为主 | 11 | | 多晶硅：关注下周仓单注册信息，反弹后空配 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：矿价企稳，产量回升，偏弱震荡，建议反套 | 20 | | 全国碳市场：CEA大幅反弹，CCER活跃度攀升 | 29 | | 棕榈油：美国生柴政策利好，带动油脂上行 | 33 | | 豆油：压榨恢复较好，国内油脂弱于国际 | 33 | | 豆粕：生柴政策利多美豆，偏强震荡 | 38 | | 豆一：豆类市场氛围偏多，偏强震荡 | 38 | | 玉米：高位震荡 | 44 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 50 | | 棉花：商业库存下降快支撑棉价 | 57 | | 生猪：降重路径改变，等待现货印证 | 64 | | 花生：震荡行情 | 70 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 1）中国精炼社会库存减少 92 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-06-13 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 纯碱 | ★★★★ | 纯碱：趋势仍偏弱。近期纯碱供应端 5 月减产的装置逐步复产，在需求端玻璃行业持续弱势 导致采购积极性较差，纯碱库存逐步攀升。纯碱库存开始小幅攀升，市场压力加大，部分厂 2025-06-13 所长 早读 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 今 日 发 现 美国 5 月 PPI 环比温和上涨，核心通胀降至近一年新低， 年内两次降息预期恢复 观点分享： 6 月 12 日，美国劳工统计局公布，美国 5 月 PPI 同比 2.6%，预期 2.6%，前值 2.4%； 美国 5 月核心 PPI 同比 3.0%，创下 2024 年 8 月以来的最低水平，预期 3.1%，前值 3.1%； 环比来看，5 月 PPI 环比仅上涨 0.1%，低于经济学家预期的 0.2%。核心 PPI 同样仅上涨 0.1%，其中商品价格(不含食品和能源)上涨 0.2%，服务价格上涨 0.1%。同日，美国劳工部 公布的数据显示，美国 6 月 7 日当周首次申请 ...

Group 1 - Nickel prices have recently declined due to the Philippines' decision to remove the export ban on raw minerals, which has impacted market sentiment and led to a drop in prices [1] - The Philippines aims to promote domestic mining development by implementing a mineral export ban similar to Indonesia's, but the current weak demand in stainless steel and new energy sectors has dampened investment motivation [1][2] - Indonesia has become the largest producer of nickel globally, and its new nickel mining quota approval policy has slowed down the approval process, affecting market dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the recent drop in nickel prices, the supply of nickel ore remains tight due to seasonal weather impacts in both Indonesia and the Philippines, which has kept prices relatively high [3][4] - Domestic nickel iron smelting plants are experiencing losses, leading to reduced production and a decline in procurement demand [4][5] - The production of nickel intermediate products, particularly MHP, is expected to increase, which may lead to a further decline in cost levels in the industry [7][9] Group 3 - The demand for refined nickel has shown positive growth, particularly driven by the emerging need for pre-plated nickel materials in battery production, which is expected to create a significant supply-demand gap [13] - Traditional demand from stainless steel production is weakening, with notable reductions in output and a slower pace of inventory depletion [14][15] - The overall supply tightness in nickel ore and intermediate products is expected to provide cost support for nickel prices, although weak terminal demand may limit price increases [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro level: US economic soft data has been revised, but the Fed's attitude remains hawkish, and the game between Powell and Trump will continue. Tariff risks have resurfaced, and the court's ruling on Trump's tariffs has been postponed. The "TACO" trading strategy is prevalent, and policy disturbances may be quickly repaired [3]. - Cost aspect: The shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia persisted throughout the month, and the price of laterite nickel ore continued to rise. Although there was information about a significant increase in the nickel ore approval quota in Indonesia in the middle of the month, the nickel ore price did not loosen, and cost support remained [3]. - Fundamental supply and demand: Both supply and demand decreased. The production of electrolytic nickel contracted slightly, but the export window remained open, and the overall domestic supply remained at a high level. The production of stainless steel decreased for the second consecutive month, and the inventory - reduction process was tortuous. The easing of tariffs did not effectively drive stainless - steel consumption. The production schedule of ternary materials was generally stable, and there were no obvious marginal changes in the fundamentals [3]. - Outlook: Trump's tariff policy may cause periodic disturbances at the macro level, but the policy disturbances may be quickly repaired. On the fundamentals, driven by the export window, the domestic supply of electrolytic nickel may remain at a high level. The inventory of stainless steel is being reduced, but the progress is slow, and the effect of rushing to export may be difficult to materialize. The new - energy consumption growth rate is gradually slowing down, and it is difficult for the demand side to show obvious increments. Overall, there is no expectation of improvement in the fundamentals, the cost - support logic remains, and the macro level may have periodic disturbances, but the correction expectation is strong. Nickel prices may fluctuate at a low level [3][40]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In May, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated weakly. At the beginning of May, due to the boost of the China - US trade agreement, the macro - expectation was repaired, and the nickel price rose. However, as the stainless - steel inventory remained high, the expectation of rushing to export was frustrated, and the price weakened. In the late month, the rumor of a significant increase in the nickel ore approval quota in Indonesia dragged down the nickel price, but the price quickly recovered after the fall [8]. - The spot premium of refined nickel first weakened and then strengthened. Although the nickel price declined in May, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was limited. The premium decreased from 2400 yuan at the beginning of the month to 2150 yuan on May 22nd. At the end of the month, affected by the sharp decline in the nickel price, the downstream purchasing was stimulated, and the premium rose from 2150 yuan on the 22nd to 2600 yuan on the 30th [10]. 3.2 Macro Analysis Overseas - US economic data was mixed. In April, the year - on - year growth rate of the US core PCE was 2.5%, in line with expectations, and the inflation pressure eased. The manufacturing performance was below expectations, with the ISM manufacturing PMI in May at 48.5. The labor market was generally stable [13]. - Tariff risks remained, but the actual disturbance was limited. Trump's tariff policy was initially stopped by the court but then the ruling was postponed. Although Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminum products on May 30th, the market believes that his tariff policy will still follow the "high - start and low - end" pattern, and the "TACO" trading strategy is still popular, so the actual impact is limited [14]. Domestic - The performance of the manufacturing industry was divided, indicating that domestic demand was stronger than foreign trade. In May, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.5, in line with expectations, and the demand - side data improved. However, the Caixin manufacturing PMI was weaker, reflecting the difficulties faced by small and medium - sized private manufacturing enterprises [15]. - Domestic consumption vitality was increasing. In April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased for the second consecutive month, and the CPI growth rate was repaired [16]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Nickel Ore Shortage Continued, and Ore Prices Kept Rising - The price of laterite nickel ore in Indonesia (1.5%) increased from $39.1 per wet ton to $40.8 per wet ton, while the price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore in the Philippines decreased from $51 per wet ton to $48.5 per wet ton. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia was tight, and the price remained strong. Although there was news of an increase in the approval quota, the price did not loosen. The continuous rainfall in Indonesia and the Philippines affected the shipment of nickel ore [17]. - In April, China's nickel - ore imports were 291.41 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.03%. As of May 30th, the domestic port inventory was about 725.88 tons, a slight increase compared with the end of April but still at an absolute low level in the past three years [19]. 3.3.2 Electrolytic Nickel Supply Contracted Month - on - Month, and Upstream Cost Pressure Was Prominent - In May, the total output of refined nickel in China was 35,350 tons, a year - on - year increase of 37.82%. The capacity utilization rate was 65.34%, 16.13 percentage points lower than the expected level, and the over - capacity pattern continued. In April, the profit margins of all process lines of integrated electrowinning nickel decreased [20]. - In April, China imported 19,157 tons of refined nickel, a year - on - year increase of about 135.76%. The export volume was about 17,216 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 150.3% and 18.51% respectively. The export window remained open, and the average monthly export profit in May was repaired to $204.78 per ton [22]. 3.3.3 Weak Downstream Buying, and Nickel - Iron Inventory Continued to Accumulate - In May, the price of high - nickel pig iron declined from 959 yuan per nickel point at the beginning of the month to 954 yuan per nickel point at the end of the month [24]. - In May, China's nickel - iron output was 25,800 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.33%. In June, the expected production was 25,640 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. The cost was strong, and only the Shandong pyrometallurgical BF process could maintain good profits, while the RKEF and EF processes had negative profit margins. The production of 300 - series stainless steel decreased for two consecutive months, and the terminal consumption was still weak. As of May 30th, the domestic nickel - iron inventory was about 275,500 tons (physical tons), an increase of about 27,500 tons compared with the end of April [25]. - In April, the domestic nickel - iron imports were about 816,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.38%. The imports from Indonesia accounted for about 97.28% [26]. 3.3.4 No Obvious Increment in Demand, and the Expectation of Nickel Sulfate Was Stable - In May, the price of nickel sulfate fluctuated weakly. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased from 28,085 yuan per ton at the beginning of the month to 27,915 yuan per ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate decreased to about 30,000 yuan per ton [28]. - In May, the output of nickel sulfate was 26,015 tons (metal content), a year - on - year decrease of 20.51% and a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. The output of ternary materials increased. The output of 5 - series and 8 - series ternary cathode materials decreased month - on - month, while the production of 6 - series ternary materials expanded. Except for the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, which was still in a loss state, the profit margins of other process lines were positive. In April, China imported about 32,604 tons of nickel sulfate and exported 567 tons [29]. 3.3.5 Supply Contracted, and Inventory Was Slowly Reduced - In May, the price of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly. The production of 300 - series stainless steel decreased for two consecutive months, and the net export scale in April decreased slightly. The downstream demand had no obvious increment. As of May 30th, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 32,600 tons compared with the end of April, but the inventory - reduction strength was less than the production - reduction strength, reflecting weak consumption [31]. 3.3.6 Limited Growth in the Power Sector, and the Industrial Track May Shift - From January to April, the cumulative sales volume of new - energy vehicles was about 4.3 million, a year - on - year increase of 46.26%. From May 1st to 25th, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger - vehicle market were 726,000, a year - on - year increase of 31%, but the growth rate was lower than the nearly 40% growth rate at the beginning of the year. The new - energy vehicle sales in May were generally stable, but the consumption increment momentum weakened [34]. - In the later stage, the sales increment of new - energy vehicles in the third quarter may be weak. The new - energy consumption policy is gradually shifting to new - energy heavy - duty trucks, ships and other transportation fields, which may partially fill the demand gap caused by the weakening of passenger - vehicle consumption [34]. 3.3.7 Supply Contraction Dragged Down Inventory Reduction - As of May 30, 2025, the domestic refined - nickel social inventory was about 41,553 tons, a decrease of 3,048 tons compared with the end of April; the SHFE inventory was 22,299 tons, a decrease of 2,009 tons compared with the end of April; the LME nickel inventory was 201,462 tons, an increase of 144 tons compared with the end of April. The supply reduction was slightly greater than the inventory - reduction amount, and the demand side was relatively weaker. In June, the domestic supply is expected to further contract, but the export window remains open, and the fundamentals may continue the pattern of weak supply and demand. The spot inventory may continue to be reduced due to the supply contraction [36]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Supply: The export window remains open, and the supply may remain at a high level [40]. - Demand: Steel - enterprise production control may suppress the production scale of stainless steel, and the expectation of rushing to export has not been fulfilled. The production schedule of ternary materials is expected to be stable [40]. - Cost: Although the nickel - ore approval quota in Indonesia has increased, the shortage situation has not been alleviated, and the ore price remains high [40]. - Macro: Tariff risks remain, but the "TACO" trading may quickly correct the situation [40].

Lifezone Metals (LZM) Update Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Lifezone Metals (LZM) - **Project**: Kibanga Nickel Project - **Location**: Tanzania Key Points and Arguments Economic Assessment - The initial assessment is the first economic study in Kibanga's fifty-year history, demonstrating robust economics and a vertically integrated strategy [5][6] - The study outlines a 22-year mine plan based on measured, indicated, and inferred resources for a 3,400,000 tonne per annum underground mine [10] - The initial assessment includes processing of approximately 70 million tonnes grading 1.93% nickel, 0.26% copper, and 0.14% cobalt [11][12] Production and Recovery - Expected recoveries from metallurgical test work are 87.3% for nickel, 95.7% for copper, and 89.6% for cobalt, resulting in a high nickel concentrate of 17.3% with low impurities [12] - The refinery will produce 50,000 tons of nickel sulfate hexahydrate per annum, along with copper and cobalt products [15] Logistics and Infrastructure - Kibanga is 1,500 kilometers from the Port of Dar Es Salaam, but recent investments in bulk infrastructure and rail have improved logistics [17] - Concentrates will be transported approximately 450 kilometers to Isaka, then via a new standard gauge railway to the port for export [18] Environmental and Social Governance (ESG) - The company adheres to high standards and best practices, meeting IFC performance standards and global industry standards for tailings management [19] - Environmental and social impact assessments have been completed and approved by the Tanzanian government, with 96% of required cash compensations already paid [21] Exploration Potential - Significant upside in resource growth potential has been identified, with four high-priority exploration targets representing 17,500,000 to 23,500,000 tonnes grading 1.9% to 2.1% nickel equivalent [23] Financial Metrics - All-in sustaining costs are projected at $2.71 per pound, positioning Kibanga as one of the lowest-cost nickel producers globally [26] - Total revenue is estimated at $23.6 billion, with $8 billion in free cash flow and an NPV of $2.37 billion, indicating strong financial viability [29][30] Market Positioning - Kibanga aims to compete with Indonesia's dominant market share by leveraging its superior grade and lower production costs [27][28] - The project is well-positioned to benefit from potential increases in nickel prices, with current prices around $15,000 to $16,000 per ton [34] Future Milestones - The Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) is expected to be delivered in July 2025, which will include a reserve statement and more detailed project timelines [36][42] Government Support - The Tanzanian government has shown strong support for the project, classifying it as a strategic priority and providing incentives for development [52][53][54] Additional Important Content - The company emphasizes the importance of capital efficiency, achieving a capital efficiency ratio of over 1 for both the mining concentrator and the fully integrated project [31][32] - Risks include nickel price volatility and competition from Indonesian producers, but the company has taken steps to mitigate these risks through strategic planning and infrastructure development [33][45][46]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: May 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team, including Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Fundamental news is temporarily empty, and nickel prices are running weakly in a narrow range. On the 20th, Shanghai Nickel 2506 closed at 122,870, down 0.83%. The total open interest of the index increased by 13,758 to 172,759 lots. Recently, the prices of related products in the nickel industry chain have weakened, but the decline is still limited. With relatively empty news, nickel prices are running weakly. Wait patiently for low - buying opportunities [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: On the 20th, Shanghai Nickel 2506 closed at 122,870, down 0.83%, and the total open interest of the index increased by 13,758 to 172,759 lots. The spot premium remained generally stable, with the Jinchuan premium at 2,150 yuan/ton and the Russian nickel premium at 200 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Indonesian nickel ore prices remained strong, with the mainstream premium of domestic trade ore this week still at 26 - 28 US dollars/wet ton. Philippine ore prices declined slightly due to increased shipments and weakened demand but were overall easy to rise and difficult to fall under the support of Indonesian ore prices. London inventory increased again to 202,000 tons, weakening the price support. The price of nickel sulfate remained flat at 27,995 yuan/ton, the ternary demand was weak, and downstream enterprises generally maintained a low - inventory strategy [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait patiently for low - buying opportunities [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Indonesian Domestic Trade Ore Benchmark Price**: In the second half of May, HMA was 15,415 US dollars/ton, up 366 US dollars/ton. SMM predicted that the HPM benchmark price of Indonesian domestic trade ore (MC35%) in the second half of May would increase for different grades of nickel ore [11]. - **Talon Metals**: Talon Metals found a high - grade nickel sample in Minnesota, which is part of a 65 - million - dollar exploration plan. The company is conducting a feasibility study and starting the approval process, planning to transport the mined ore to North Dakota for processing [12]. - **Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc. (GFNI)**: In April 2025, GFNI exported 56,625 wet metric tons of low - grade nickel ore to Indonesia for the first time. The company aims to complete 91 shipments totaling 5 million WMT in 2025, with an expected shipment structure of 53% low - grade and 47% medium - grade ores. It is expected to achieve double - digit revenue growth in 2025 [12]. - **Ivanhoe Mining**: On May 8, Ivanhoe Mining announced that its subsidiary Ivanplats entered the Flatreef ore body on May 7. The project has completed a certain amount of tunnel construction, and the produced ore will be stored on the surface for the first feeding of the concentrator in the fourth quarter [13].

行业 镍日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 20 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 镍观点： 宏观氛围缓和，基本面消息暂真空，镍价延续窄幅波动，19 日沪镍震荡略偏 弱运行，尾盘报收于 123850，下跌 0.67%，指数总持仓增加 5663 至 159001 手。 现货升贴水总体保持稳定，日内金川升水 2100 元/吨，俄镍升水报 200。基本面 上，印尼镍矿价格仍保持偏强，印尼内贸矿 5 月主流升水仍落在 26-28 美元/湿吨， 菲矿价受出货量增加以及需求削弱小幅下行，但在印尼矿价支撑下整体易涨难跌； 伦敦库存再 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: May 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team, including Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel Price Movement: With the further easing of Sino-US tariff trade tensions, the macro environment improved again. The Shanghai nickel futures opened lower and closed higher at 125,230 yuan/ton, up 0.8%. The total open interest of the index decreased by 10,293 to 164,836 lots. The spot premium remained generally stable, with the Jinchuan premium at 2,150 yuan/ton and the Russian nickel premium at 200 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamental Analysis: Nickel ore prices remained strong due to Indonesia's policy of raising royalties. The premium of domestic pyrometallurgical nickel ore increased by $2/wet ton month-on-month to $26 - $28/wet ton in April, and the ore price was prone to rise and difficult to fall. The pure nickel inventory continued to decline, with the London inventory dropping to 198,432 tons, and the marginal pressure of inventory accumulation weakened. The supply of intermediate products remained tight due to the production cuts of high - grade nickel matte and MHP by leading enterprises in Indonesia, which would affect the pure nickel output in the future. At the same time, the price of nickel sulfate was expected to maintain a moderate recovery trend due to the enhanced cost support [8]. - Investment Outlook: Fundamentally, the pattern was long - term bearish and short - term bullish. The long - term supply of primary nickel was in surplus, but the support at the mine end was strong at the bottom. The surplus pressure weakened under the short - term inventory reduction and the tight supply of intermediate products. The short - term macro environment improved, but there were still uncertainties. It was recommended to maintain an oscillating and bullish mindset and seize the opportunity to go long at low levels [8]. Group 3: Industry News Indonesia's Domestic Ore Benchmark Price - HMA: In the second half of May, the HMA was $15,415/ton, up $366/ton [11]. - HPM: SMM predicted that the HPM prices of Indonesian domestic nickel ore (MC35%) in the second half of May would increase compared with the first half. For example, the HPM price of Ni1.2% grade nickel ore was $15.63/wet ton, up $0.37/wet ton; the Ni1.6% grade was $27.25/wet ton, up $0.65/wet ton; the Ni1.7% grade was $30.66/wet ton, up $0.73/wet ton; the Ni1.8% grade was $34.27/wet ton, up $0.81/wet ton; the Ni1.9% grade was $38.08/wet ton, up $0.9/wet ton; and the Ni2.0% grade was $42.08/wet ton, up $1/wet ton [11][12]. - Premium: The mainstream premium of Indonesian pyrometallurgical domestic ore in May was $26 - $28/wet ton, about $2/wet ton higher than that in April, while the price of hydrometallurgical ore decreased slightly within the month [12]. Talon Metals' Discovery - High - Grade Nickel Sample: Talon Metals discovered the highest - grade nickel sample to date, with a nickel content of 12.65%, along with copper, gold, and platinum - group metals, in a location nearly half a mile underground near Tamarack, Minnesota. This discovery was part of an exploration plan that has drilled more than 290 holes and cost $65 million since 2020 [12]. - Project Progress: The company was conducting a feasibility study and starting the relevant approval process, planning to transport the mined ore to North Dakota for processing. The proposed underground mine project faced less opposition than other controversial mining projects in the state but still required a detailed environmental review [12]. Philippine Nickel Miner's Export - GFNI's Export: Philippine nickel miner Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc. (GFNI) exported 56,625 wet metric tons (WMT) of low - grade nickel ore (1.25% nickel content and less than 20% iron content) to Indonesia for the first time on April 30, 2025, marking an important step in its market expansion strategy [12]. - Business Goals: Although China remained its largest market, the demand from Indonesia had increased significantly in recent years. PGMC aimed to complete 91 shipments, totaling 5 million WMT, in 2025, with an expected shipment structure of 53% low - grade and 47% medium - grade ore. GFNI was expected to achieve double - digit revenue growth in 2025 due to the doubling of Palawan's production capacity (from 1.5 million to 3 million WMT), the improvement of production efficiency in Surigao, and the improvement of Bataan port operations. In 2024, GFNI achieved revenues of 7.611 billion pesos and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 743.9 million pesos. The company's capital expenditure budget for 2025 was 711.8 million pesos, which would be used for mine development, resource expansion, exploration in several provinces, and investment in high - value - added processing projects such as ferronickel and battery - grade nickel [12]. Ivanhoe's Milestone - Project Breakthrough: On May 7, 2025, Ivanplats, a subsidiary of Ivanhoe Mining, achieved an important breakthrough. Miners at the 850 - meter level completed the first high - grade ore blasting of the Flatreef ore body. The project had completed a total of 5.5 kilometers of tunnel construction at three levels (750 meters, 850 meters, and 950 meters) since the start of the No. 1 shaft excavation in 2015, and the shafts had reached a depth of 996 meters by 2021. It was expected that the tunnels at the 750 - meter and 950 - meter levels would also enter the Flatreef ore body in the coming weeks [13]. - Ore Storage: The ore produced currently would be stored on the surface in preparation for the first feeding of the first - stage concentrator in the fourth quarter of this year. The ore body contained various metal elements, including platinum, palladium, rhodium, nickel, gold, and copper [13].