Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and it is necessary to be vigilant against multiple potential risks in the news. The stainless - steel price is in a low - level shock due to the weak supply and demand in reality [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: After the increase in Indonesian quotas is transmitted to the ore price, the overall decline of Indonesian nickel ore is relatively moderate, and the premium margin is temporarily stable. The cash cost of the pyrometallurgical process has decreased by about 2%. The nickel ore contradiction usually eases in the second half of the year, and the willingness of funds to speculate has decreased, which may limit the elasticity of the nickel price. The short - term inventory of the smelting end has not increased as expected, and the production schedule of ternary materials is considerable. The cost curve is still supported by the cash cost of the pyrometallurgical integration in the short term. The weak fundamentals of nickel iron have improved marginally, and the price has recovered due to the marginal decline in inventory. However, the expected production of refined nickel still exerts pressure, and the increase in low - cost integrated supply or equity resource processing supply drags down the upside of the nickel price [1]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,371 tons to 38,566 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 204 tons to 209,544 tons [3]. - **Market News**: There are multiple events affecting the nickel market, such as Canada's potential halt of nickel exports to the US, the trial production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, Indonesia's plan to shorten the mining quota period, changes in the RKAB plan, production suspension in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and Indonesia's plan to crack down on illegal mining [6][7][9]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Fundamentals**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of stainless - steel supply and demand have significantly converged compared with previous years. The tariff contradiction on the demand side and the weak consumption in the post - real - estate cycle have resonated, and the apparent demand growth rate in July decreased to 2%. After the "de - valuation - de - production" stage from June to July, the supply - demand mismatch has slightly eased. The supply in August increased month - on - month by 4%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate dropped to 2%. The production schedule in Indonesia in August was 420,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The expected production in September has rebounded. Due to the high inventory in the upstream and mid - stream and the cautious procurement of the downstream, there is a lack of short - term upward drivers, and the long - term recovery still depends on the start of the overall macro - inventory replenishment cycle. The short - term profit margin has been compressed, and the cost logic limits the downward space [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 31, the SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,267 tons, with a half - month - on - month decrease of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 28%. On August 28, 2025, the stainless - steel social inventory was 1,082,956 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.81%. China's 14 - port nickel ore inventory increased by 539,700 wet tons to 12.5982 million wet tons [5]. - **Market News**: A Shandong steel mill has started maintenance due to capacity limitations and production reduction targets, which will reduce the supply of hot - rolled coil [8]. Futures Data The report provides weekly key data tracking for nickel and stainless - steel futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, and various price spreads and premiums [11]. Charts There are a series of charts showing the price trends, trading volumes, inventory changes, and cost - profit situations of nickel, stainless - steel, and related products [12 - 24].

Core View - Bullish factors include improved stainless steel mill profits leading to increased production, rising new energy vehicle sales boosting demand, strong cost support at the lower end, a falling US dollar index lifting nickel prices, and an improved macro - environment [3] - Bearish factors are high stainless steel inventories, declining demand for new energy ternary batteries suppressing nickel consumption, increasing global nickel ore supply and rising production, and a rebounding US dollar increasing cost pressure [3] - The trading advisory view is that the fundamentals are weak, but the increase in downstream procurement volume leads to significant divergence between bulls and bears [3] Market Data Nickel - The latest values of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (main, continuous 1, continuous 2, continuous 3) are 120990 yuan/ton, 120990 yuan/ton, 121110 yuan/ton, and 121300 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 0.57%, 1.15%, 1.09%, and 1.09% [4] - LME nickel 3M is at 15190 dollars/ton, up 1.04% weekly [4] - The positions decreased by 16.4% to 92205 hands, trading volume increased by 8.94% to 129831 hands, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.39% to 22013 tons [4] - The basis of the main contract is - 1060 yuan/ton, down 7.83% [4] - The spot prices of金川 nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, and nickel beans are 122850 yuan/ton, 120950 yuan/ton, 121750 yuan/ton, and 123050 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 1.25%, 1.10%, 1.14%, and 1.05% [4] - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 40872 tons, a decrease of 1019 tons; LME nickel inventory is 209676 tons, an increase of 456 tons [4][7] Stainless Steel - The latest values of stainless steel futures contracts (main, continuous 1, continuous 2, continuous 3) are 12850 yuan/ton, 12850 yuan/ton, 12915 yuan/ton, and 12980 yuan/ton respectively, with the main contract unchanged, and continuous 1, 2, 3 up 0.78%, 0.70%, and 0.89% weekly [4] - The trading volume decreased by 22.05% to 121866 hands, positions decreased by 10.48% to 127116 hands, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.47% to 100431 tons [4] - The basis of the main contract is 620 yuan/ton, down 13.89% [4] - The stainless steel social inventory is 928.8 thousand tons, a decrease of 4.6 thousand tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 33111 tons, a decrease of 304 tons [7] Charts - There are charts showing the trends of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures main contracts, stainless steel futures main contract, nickel spot average price, China's refined nickel monthly production, China's primary nickel total monthly supply, domestic social nickel inventory, LME nickel inventory, Philippine laterite nickel ore price, China's port nickel ore inventory, China's nickel - iron monthly production, Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production, battery - grade nickel sulfate average price, nickel - bean - produced nickel sulfate profit margin, China's externally - sourced nickel - sulfate - produced electrowon nickel profit, China's nickel sulfate monthly production, ternary precursor monthly production capacity, China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil profit margin, stainless steel monthly production, and stainless steel inventory [9][11][13][15][16][17][20][22][24][26][28][29][31][33]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the first half of 2025, adjusted EBITDA was US$159.3 million, slightly above the US$155.7 million recorded in 2024, with profit after tax increasing by 80% to US$25.5 million from US$14 million in 2024 [3][11][42] - Gross profit reached US$114.8 million, up 19%, and operating profit was US$98.7 million, up 12% [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Hangzhou mine produced over 11.5 million wet metric tons, with adjusted EBITDA of US$70.3 million, a significant improvement compared to 2024 [4][16] - RKF operations saw lower EBITDA due to higher costs and ore shortages, despite an improving NPI price [8][12] - HPAL operations performed well, with production above 2024 levels and stable cash costs, resulting in EBITDA margins around US$5,900 per ton [14][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - NPI prices increased from US$11,290 to US$11,350, while cash costs rose from US$9,716 to US$10,117 due to higher oil prices [13][12] - The combined EBITDA for HNC and Syncreation increased by 20% to 27.7% in 2025 [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on responsible and sustainable mining, with initiatives like the Nickel Industries Foundation for social and economic development in Indonesia [2] - Development of the Sampala project is progressing well, with expectations to host over 1 billion wet metric tons [6] - The company aims to achieve gold status in responsible mining ratings and is working on increasing production capacity at the Hengjai mine [5][19] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's performance despite challenges in nickel prices, highlighting strong growth in the mining sector [42] - The company anticipates further growth with the imminent release of an RKB that requires no CapEx for increased mine sales [42] Other Important Information - The company has deferred payments for E and C totaling US$126.5 million to January and April, allowing for further production and EBITDA [11] - The cathode plant is expected to be commissioned in October or November, with all key equipment fabricated and erected [17][34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on debt refinancing and other levers - Management confirmed entering a commitment letter for a US$100 million loan facility to support working capital and is evaluating alternative debt funding options [22][23] Question: Dividend withdrawal reasoning - Management stated that the withdrawal of the dividend is a case of prudent balance sheet management [25] Question: Update on VAT refunds - Management expects the US$110 million VAT refunds within the next six to twelve months and is in dialogue with the Indonesian government [27][28] Question: Timing for environmental study approval - Management expects the RKB approval for the Penguja mine by September and for Sampala by the end of the year [29] Question: Factors for commissioning the cathode plant - Management decided to delay commissioning due to high working capital draw and costs associated with MHP, aiming for October or November [34][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on August 26, the main nickel contract oscillated within a range, with weak spot - market trading, an expanding basis premium. The supply side saw stable nickel ore prices, increased nickel ore arrivals last week, and tight port inventories. Nickel - iron plants' losses narrowed, with domestic production scheduled to decline in August and Indonesian production to increase, leading to nickel - iron accumulation. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in August, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary material production, stainless - steel plant production schedules, and alloy and electroplating demands all increased. In terms of inventory, there were decreases in SHFE, LME, and social inventories, while the bonded - area inventory remained flat. Overall, the pure nickel fundamentals were loose, and with the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations fluctuating, nickel prices were expected to oscillate within a range. It was recommended to wait and see [1] - For stainless steel, on August 26, the main stainless - steel contract oscillated within a range, with weak spot - market trading and an expanding basis premium. Inventory decreased in SHFE, and the 300 - series social inventory increased last week. Supply increased in August, while terminal demand was weak. On the cost side, high - ferronickel and high - carbon ferrochrome prices rose. Currently, macro - sentiment had a greater impact. Although the fundamentals were loose, it would take time for prices to return to fundamentals, and there was cost support. Therefore, prices were expected to fluctuate with the macro - situation. It was recommended to wait and see [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Futures Market**: On August 26, the closing prices of SHFE nickel's near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 120180, 120310, 120720, and 120780 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 88775 hands (- 30404), and the open interest was 109267 hands (- 1070). The LME 3 - month nickel price rose 1.23%. The trading volume of LME 3 - month nickel was 7965 hands [1] - **Spot Market**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 121450 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 122750 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The average price of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) was 120350 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat, with increased arrivals last week and tight port inventories. Nickel - iron plants' losses narrowed, with domestic production scheduled to decline in August and Indonesian production to increase. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in August, and export profits expanded [1] - **Demand**: Ternary material production increased; stainless - steel plant production schedules increased; alloy and electroplating demands were stable [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE, LME, and social inventories decreased, while the bonded - area inventory remained flat [1] Stainless - Steel Market - **Futures Market**: On August 26, the closing prices of stainless - steel's near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 12755, 12840, 12940, and 12965 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 102727 hands (- 53612), and the open interest was 133659 hands (- 8340) [1] - **Spot Market**: Spot - market trading was weak, and the basis premium expanded [1] - **Supply**: Stainless - steel production schedules increased in August [1] - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [1] - **Cost**: High - ferronickel and high - carbon ferrochrome prices rose [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory decreased, and last week, the 300 - series social inventory was 62600 tons (+ 8500) [1] Company News - Eramet's Indonesian subsidiary plans to produce 42 million tons of nickel ore this year, including about 27 million tons of laterite nickel ore mainly for nickel - iron smelters, 3 million tons for its own NPI plant, and 12 million tons of low - grade nickel ore (nickel pyrite) for HPAL projects. This target output is expected to continue for the next year, and the Weida Bay nickel ore reserves can support 22 years of mining, with room to further increase production capacity [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has dropped from around 95% to about 75%. The inflation pressure caused by tariffs is still greater than the pressure of the weakening labor market [3]. - Overseas nickel ore supply continues to be in a loose state, with the price of laterite nickel ore showing signs of softening. The price of ferronickel has stopped rising, and the consumption of downstream stainless steel is weak. The salt market remains popular, but the market's acceptance of price increases is poor. The trading volume in the pure nickel market has picked up [3]. - In the later stage, nickel prices will maintain a range - bound pattern and may be technically corrected. The uncertainty on the macro - front remains high, and the game between inflation pressure and the weakening labor market will continue. The traditional consumer market remains sluggish, and the new energy sector may improve, but it is difficult to determine whether the expectations can be realized. The supply side remains stable at a high level, and the fundamentals are unlikely to improve significantly [3][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary | Variety | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/18 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 119610 | 120340 | -730 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 14929 | 15151 | -222 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 209748 | 211662 | -1914 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 22552 | 23051 | -499 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2600 | 2200 | 400 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 500 | 400 | 100 | Yuan/ton | | High - Nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 936 | 936 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless Steel Inventory | 88.3 | 87.8 | 0.50 | Tons | [5] 3.2 Market Review - **Macro - level**: As of August 16, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 235,000, higher than the expected 225,000. The US manufacturing and service PMI in August were both better than expected. Fed officials' hawkish remarks led to a significant downward revision of the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in September to around 75% [6]. - **Nickel Ore**: The FOB prices of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia have declined. The expectation of a loose nickel ore supply remains unchanged, and Indonesian nickel iron plants generally expect the nickel ore price to decline further in late August [6]. - **Pure Nickel**: In July, the domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly by 400 tons to 53,699 tons, while the smelter's production schedule increased slightly. The domestic export and import of electrolytic nickel both increased year - on - year. After the import window opened, the imported resources increased significantly, and the spot inventory remained relatively stable [7]. - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) rose from 925.5 yuan/nickel point to 929 yuan/nickel point. In July, China's nickel pig iron production decreased slightly month - on - month. In June, the domestic nickel iron import increased significantly year - on - year, mainly from Indonesia. In July, Indonesia's nickel iron production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. As of August 15, the nickel iron physical ton inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The stainless - steel consumption is still sluggish, and the short - term ferronickel price may peak and then fluctuate around the cost line [8][9]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The prices of battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate increased. In July, the production of nickel sulfate metal increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The production of ternary materials also increased. The upstream and downstream inventory days of nickel sulfate decreased. The market for nickel sulfate remains popular, but the terminal market's resistance to high - nickel salts suppresses price increases [9]. - **New Energy**: From August 1 to 17, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 58.0%. The growth rate of new - energy vehicle sales has slowed down in the first and middle ten days of August. The replacement subsidy funds have been allocated, but the implementation of local policies varies, and the demand - side expectation is moderately weak [10]. - **Inventory**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel decreased by 1,019 tons compared with the previous period. The SHFE inventory decreased by 499 tons, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,914 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges decreased by 2,413 tons [10]. 3.3 Industry News - Boqian New Materials' subsidiaries plan to invest in expanding the production of ultrafine nickel powder, with a planned construction period of 12 months and an additional annual production capacity of 600 tons each [12]. - Indonesia announced the second - phase nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price for August, which decreased by about 0.1% compared with the first - phase price [12]. - Centaurus Metals plans to make a final investment decision on its Brazilian nickel ore project in the first half of 2026, with an expected investment of $370 million and an annual production capacity of about 20,000 tons of nickel [12]. - Nimy Resources discovered a potential large - scale copper - nickel mineralization in Western Australia, which may strengthen the company's layout in the copper - nickel - PGE exploration field [12]. - Indonesia's nickel ore production from January to July 2025 was lower than the target, with a realization rate of only 69% [12]. - BHP cut its dividend to the lowest level since 2017 and plans to sell its idle Nickel West business [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and international nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [14][16].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Nickel is expected to operate in a low - level oscillatory pattern [1]. - Stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between expectations and realities [2]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 119,830, down 100 from T - 1; the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract was 12,795, down 25 from T - 1. The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 90,715, an increase of 27,039 from T - 1; the trading volume of the main stainless - steel contract was 99,736, a decrease of 50,000 from T - 1 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 120,250, up 200 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 928, up 1 from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 13,050, unchanged from T - 1; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu was 13,700, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario's Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are key in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [2]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per single line [3]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, and the ministry may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the whole park [3][4]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance [4]. - The approved 2025 production plan and budget (RKAB) output of Indonesian nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [4][5]. - Indonesian mining and coal companies must resubmit the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) starting from October 2025 [5]. - A Shandong steel mill started maintenance due to the 5% annual production reduction target, suspending the delivery of long - term supply agreements signed in August [5]. - The Indonesian President stated that illegal mining will be severely punished, and reports of 1,063 illegal mines have been received [6]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral view [7].

Group 1 - Nickel prices in Shanghai experienced slight fluctuations, with the main contract closing down by 0.3% at 119,830 yuan per ton, amid increased domestic supply of nickel elements due to significant rises in imports of nickel ore, nickel iron, and refined nickel in July [1] - The price of Philippine nickel ore remained stable, with CIF prices for NI1.3% at $41-$43 per wet ton, NI1.4% at $49-$51 per wet ton, and NI1.5% at $56-$58 per wet ton, despite unfavorable shipping conditions due to rain [1] - Downstream enterprises have increased procurement as nickel prices slightly declined, with stable trading in refined nickel spot markets, while stainless steel demand remains weak despite production cuts in June and July [1] Group 2 - The current contradictions in the nickel industry are concentrated in the stainless steel market, with the cost transmission path from "stainless steel-nickel ore-primary nickel" determining the cost center for primary nickel [2] - After a recovery to around 13,000, stainless steel prices have continued to decline, leading to renewed pessimism in market sentiment, with ongoing inventory and supply pressures [2] - Future demand for stainless steel during the traditional peak season remains uncertain, with a focus on the shipping pace of leading steel mills, and nickel prices are expected to lack short-term drivers, maintaining a weak outlook overall [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and investors should be wary of news - related risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Supply - side disturbances are recurring, and it will oscillate with an upward bias [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is strong, leading to amplified fluctuations in the futures market [2][13]. - Polysilicon: There are increasing news - related disturbances this week [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,600 yuan, down 600 yuan from the previous day; the stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,010 yuan, down 15 yuan. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 87,649 lots, a decrease of 14,608 lots, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 143,960 lots, a decrease of 16,602 lots [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There are various events such as potential nickel export suspension from Canada, new nickel - iron production in Indonesia, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, changes in mining quota policies, production suspensions due to losses, and steel mill overhauls in China [4][5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 86,920 yuan, up 1,780 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 39,934 lots, a decrease of 22,135 lots, and the open interest was 89,649 lots, a decrease of 8,414 lots [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and there were changes in the global tablet and smartphone shipments [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2511 contract was 8,805 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the PS2511 contract closed at 52,740 yuan/ton, up 2,310 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, price, profit, and inventory data [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Xining held a photovoltaic industry patent navigation project kick - off meeting to strengthen the photovoltaic industry [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel price: Under the fundamental logic, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and the long - term logic is under pressure. However, there are frequent developments in Indonesia, so it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of news - driven stimulation. The global refined nickel's visible inventory is gradually increasing, which drags down the upside of the nickel price. The long - term low - cost supply increase may change the cost curve. In the short - term and for the second half of the year, the nickel price valuation is at the boundary of the nickel - iron conversion path. The relaxation of high inventory in the nickel - iron segment slightly boosts the upside of the nickel price, but the amplitude is limited. The decrease in the fire - method cash cost is about 2%, and it is still difficult for the price to drop sharply. The hype of nickel - ore contradictions may decline, restricting the price elasticity. Also, beware of potential policies in Indonesia, such as cracking down on illegal mining, changing the RKAB approval cycle, and the APNI's suggestion to re - evaluate the nickel - ore HPM formula [1]. - Stainless - steel price: The pressure in the real - world market needs to be continuously alleviated, and the steel price will fluctuate. The bullish logic focuses on the moderate decline of high inventory levels, with social inventory decreasing slightly for five consecutive weeks and factory inventory pressure easing in July. There are also some structural production cuts on the supply side. The bearish view is based on actual supply - demand, as the pressure relief needs to be sustainable, and the supply elasticity may limit the upside. The profit from warehouse delivery has narrowed to 2%. The stainless - steel production plan for August shows marginal increases, but the year - on - year growth is limited [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis Nickel - The global refined nickel's visible inventory is gradually increasing, dragging down the nickel price. The long - term low - cost supply increase may change the cost curve. In the short - term and for the second half of the year, the nickel price valuation is at the boundary of the nickel - iron conversion path. The relaxation of high inventory in the nickel - iron segment slightly boosts the upside of the nickel price, but the amplitude is limited. The decrease in the fire - method cash cost is about 2%, and it is still difficult for the price to drop sharply. The hype of nickel - ore contradictions may decline, restricting the price elasticity. Be vigilant against potential policies in Indonesia [1]. Stainless Steel - The bullish logic focuses on the moderate decline of high inventory levels, with social inventory decreasing slightly for five consecutive weeks and factory inventory pressure easing in July. There are also some structural production cuts on the supply side. The bearish view is based on actual supply - demand, as the pressure relief needs to be sustainable, and the supply elasticity may limit the upside. The profit from warehouse delivery has narrowed to 2%. The stainless - steel production plan for August shows marginal increases, but the year - on - year growth is limited [2]. 3.2 Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,963 tons to 41,286 tons, with warehouse - receipt inventory increasing by 1,520 tons to 22,141 tons, spot inventory increasing by 443 tons to 13,755 tons, and bonded - area inventory remaining unchanged at 5,390 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 570 tons to 211,662 tons [3][4]. - The nickel - iron inventory in mid - August was 33,111 tons, a 1% decrease from the previous half - month and a 45% increase year - on - year. The inventory pressure is high but has slightly eased [5]. - On August 14, 2025, the total stainless - steel social inventory was 1,078,900 tons, a 2.48% decrease from the previous week. Cold - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 610,718 tons, a 1.93% decrease, and hot - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 468,182 tons, a 3.19% decrease [5]. - The nickel - ore inventory at 14 ports in China increased by 618,200 wet tons to 10,951,600 wet tons, with 10,680,000 wet tons from the Philippines. By grade, low - nickel high - iron ore was 6,089,500 wet tons, and medium - and high - grade nickel ore was 4,862,100 wet tons [5]. 3.3 Market News - In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [6]. - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron and entered the trial - production stage, with an annual metal - nickel output of about 12,500 tons per line [6]. - Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and the relevant department may fine the verified illegal companies and conduct an audit of the entire park [6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining - quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and ore supplies [6]. - The APNI revealed that the government - approved 2025 RKAB production target is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [7]. - Two nickel - iron smelting industrial parks in Indonesia have suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. - Indonesia's ESDM requires mining and coal - mining companies to resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [7]. - A steel mill in Shandong started maintenance due to capacity restrictions, reducing the supply of hot - rolled coils and suspending long - term supply - agreement deliveries in August [8]. - The Indonesian president stated that they will crack down on illegal mining and have received reports on 1,063 illegal mines [9]. 3.4 Weekly Key Data Tracking The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, price differentials, and other indicators of nickel and stainless - steel futures, as well as the prices of related products in the industrial chain, such as nickel imports, nickel - iron, stainless - steel products, high - carbon ferrochrome, and battery - grade nickel sulfate [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range based on fundamental logic, but there is a need to be vigilant about risks from news. The long - term supply increase may affect the cost curve, while short - term relative valuation slightly boosts the upside space. The fire - method cash cost has decreased by about 2%, and deep drops are still difficult [4]. - Stainless Steel: The steel price will oscillate as there is a game between macro expectations and reality. Bulls focus on inventory reduction and supply - side adjustments, while bears are concerned about weak reality and supply elasticity. The 8 - month production shows marginal changes, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level [5]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The short - term long - short logic is divergent, and the market is affected by various factors. It is advisable to short at high positions and take profit at low positions [30][34]. - Polysilicon: With more event disturbances next week, the strategy is to go long on dips. Policy and market factors dominate, and the market is waiting for the results of the Huadian Group's component procurement project [30][34][35]. - Lithium Carbonate: Due to weak supply and strong demand, the price is expected to strengthen. Supply is affected by production disruptions in Jiangxi and Qinghai, while demand improves in August. The price is likely to remain strong for about a month [63][64][65]. - Palm Oil: With strong supply and demand in the producing areas, the strategy is to go long on pullbacks [2][79]. - Soybean Oil: US soybeans have gained support, and attention should be paid to the procurement progress in the fourth quarter [2][79]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,600 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 13,010 yuan. The trading volume of both showed certain changes [14]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1963 tons to 41,286 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 570 tons to 211,662 tons. The nickel - iron inventory and stainless - steel social inventory also had corresponding changes [6][7][8]. - **Market News**: There were various news events such as potential export restrictions from Canada, project start - ups in Indonesia, and environmental issues in industrial parks [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon futures oscillated, and the，现货价格有所上涨；多晶硅期货宽幅震荡，现货成交未起色。工业硅周五收于8805元/吨，多晶硅周五盘面收于52740元/吨 [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's weekly industry inventory decreased slightly, with production increasing marginally. Polysilicon's short - term production remained high, and the upstream inventory increased. The demand for both showed certain trends [31][32][33]. - **Trading Strategies**: For industrial silicon, it is recommended to short at high positions and take profit at low positions. For polysilicon, the strategy is to go long on dips, and there are also suggestions for arbitrage and hedging [34][35][36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movements**: The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate increased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 86,920 yuan/ton, up 10,280 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price rose to 82,700 yuan/ton [63]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply was affected by production disruptions in Jiangxi and Qinghai, while demand improved in August with an increase in cathode material production. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the futures warehouse receipts increased [64]. - **Outlook**: The lithium price is expected to remain strong for about a month due to supply disturbances and improved demand [65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Performance**: The palm oil 01 contract rose 5.11% last week, and the soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.74% [79]. - **Driving Factors**: The MPOB and USDA reports were unexpectedly bullish for palm oil, and the USDA report on soybeans provided support for soybean oil [79].