Core Insights - The article highlights the role of Guoxin Futures in supporting agricultural development through innovative financial tools, particularly the "insurance + futures" model, which provides risk management for farmers [1][2][3] Financial Tools Innovation - Guoxin Futures has developed financial tools to address the challenges faced by agricultural producers, creating a risk "safety net" for industries reliant on weather and market prices [1] - The company has launched over 150 "insurance + futures" projects covering more than 10 agricultural products, benefiting over 80,000 farmers [2] Industry Support and Income Growth - In Anhui, Guoxin Futures introduced an off-market options project for the egg industry, providing price guarantees for over 400 tons of eggs, which helped stabilize farmer incomes [2] - The peanut industry in Xiangfu District received systematic financial support through the "insurance + futures" project, covering nearly 100,000 acres and enhancing its status as a major peanut production area [2] Knowledge Empowerment and Training - Guoxin Futures has implemented financial literacy programs, such as the "Blue Ocean Launch" initiative, to educate farmers on risk management and futures applications, reaching over a thousand participants [3][4] - The company combines training with practical applications, facilitating contract signings and knowledge sharing to empower farmers [4] Comprehensive Support Mechanism - The company employs a "blood transfusion + blood production" model, supporting various agricultural projects through financial donations and purchasing local products to enhance market access [3] - Guoxin Futures emphasizes the importance of integrating financial services with agricultural development, demonstrating a commitment to rural revitalization through every compensation, training session, and research activity [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights the role of Guoxin Futures in supporting rural revitalization through financial services, particularly using the "insurance + futures" model to mitigate risks for agricultural producers [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Tools and Risk Management - Guoxin Futures has developed innovative financial tools to address the challenges faced by agricultural producers, particularly in managing risks associated with weather and market prices [2]. - In Anhui's Huo Qiu County, a chicken egg options project was launched, providing price protection for over 400 tons of eggs, successfully stabilizing farmer incomes and promoting structural upgrades in the industry [2]. - The "insurance + futures" project for peanuts in Xiangfu District has provided risk protection for nearly 100,000 acres of peanut cultivation, reinforcing its status as a major peanut production area in China [2]. - By mid-2025, Guoxin Futures had conducted over 150 "insurance + futures" projects, benefiting more than 80,000 farming households across various crops [2]. Group 2: Industry Development and Support - Guoxin Futures is enhancing the agricultural value chain by collaborating with leading enterprises, such as Guangtan Rubber, to improve the quality and efficiency of the rubber industry [3]. - The company has organized various activities, including research and discussions, to integrate party building with business operations, thereby fostering industry upgrades [3]. - Guoxin Futures continues to support rural products from regions like Anhui and Yunnan through direct purchases, helping local products reach broader markets [3]. Group 3: Knowledge Empowerment and Training - The "Blue Ocean Launch" financial knowledge program has been implemented to educate farmers about price insurance and futures, reaching over a thousand participants through online and in-person training [4]. - Training sessions have been conducted in conjunction with project launches, providing comprehensive education on industry trends and financial tools, resulting in signed purchase agreements for peanuts [4]. - Guoxin Futures emphasizes the importance of professional financial services in addressing agricultural development challenges, demonstrating a commitment to rural revitalization through every training and compensation initiative [4].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Today, the national egg price declined. The average price in the main production areas was 2.85 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.20 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 01 contract dropped 0.53% [8] - Last week, the spot market weakened again. The prices in the two - lake powder egg areas, the main force of the previous rebound, gradually declined, while the supply - demand of northern red eggs was relatively balanced with stable prices. The market sales returned to a slow pace. Considering the cooler temperature and better egg storage conditions, there won't be a large - scale dumping like in the rainy and summer seasons. It is expected that the egg price will have a narrow - range adjustment at a low level this week [8] - In terms of futures, due to the short - term downturn of the spot market, there was a certain decline this week. The near - month contracts had a larger decline as they were approaching delivery, while the far - month contracts were relatively firm due to the expectation of inventory reduction [8] - Fundamentally, the layer inventory in late October decreased on a monthly basis for the first time this year, indicating that the poor breeding profit has gradually affected the supply side. Also, observing the year - on - year data of the replenishment volume in the past four months, it is expected that the layer inventory may continue to decline slightly in the medium term [8] Operation Suggestions - In the short term, the market is considered to be in a low - level shock. The low spot price may last for some time. Opportunities for long positions in far - month contracts can be considered on dips, but there may still be fluctuations in the near term. It is advisable to conduct a reverse spread between near - and far - month spreads [8] Contract Details | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2601 | 3197 | 3180 | 3194 | 3157 | 3180 | - 17 | - 0.53% | 151302 | 208381 | 195915 | | 2602 | 2993 | 2968 | 2979 | 2948 | 2971 | - 22 | - 0.74% | 37394 | 124504 | 1313 | | 2512 | 2950 | 2922 | 2936 | 2902 | 2928 | - 22 | - 0.75% | 45650 | 42097 | - 8730 | [7] Group 3: Industry News Inventory - As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, down 0.66% from 1.368 billion at the end of September 2025, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but up 5.59% year - on - year compared with 1.287 billion at the end of October 2024 [9] Replenishment - In October 2025, the monthly output of layer chicks of sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period of 2024. The total replenishment in the past four months (July - October 2025) was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period last year (July - October 2024) [9] Group 4: Data Overview Elimination Volume - According to the latest data from Zhuochuang Information, in the three weeks up to November 13, 2025, the national chicken elimination volumes were 20.53 million, 19.81 million, and 19.47 million respectively, showing a downward trend recently [17] Elimination Age - As of November 13, 2025, the average elimination age of chickens was 493 days, the same as last week and 6 days earlier than last month [17]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 19, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The spot egg prices across the country declined today. The average price in the main production areas was 2.87 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin from yesterday, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.24 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 01 contract dropped 0.87%. The spot market weakened again last week, with prices in the Hubei and Hunan powder egg regions, the main force of the previous rebound, gradually falling, while the supply and demand of red eggs in the north were relatively balanced and prices were stable. Market sales returned to sluggishness. Considering the cooler temperatures, egg storage conditions have improved, and there will be no large - scale dumping as in the rainy season and summer. Egg prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly at low levels this week. [8] - Due to the temporary downturn in the spot market, futures prices declined this week. Near - month contracts had a larger decline due to approaching delivery, while far - month contracts were relatively firmer due to the expectation of reduced inventory. Fundamentally, the laying hen inventory decreased month - on - month for the first time in October, indicating that the poor breeding profits have gradually affected the supply side. The year - on - year data of the replenishment volume in the past four months also shows that there is an expectation of a continuous slight decline in the medium - term laying hen inventory. The longer the low - price period in the fourth quarter, the greater the probability and elasticity of a reversal in the first quarter and second quarter of next year. [8] - In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate at low levels, and the low spot prices may continue for some time. Opportunities for long positions in far - month contracts can be considered on dips, but there may still be fluctuations in the near term. A reverse spread between near - and far - month contracts is advisable. [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the 2601 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3213, the opening price was 3222, the highest price was 3233, the lowest price was 3164, the closing price was 3185, down 28 or 0.87%, with a trading volume of 208,846 and an open interest of 214,974, an increase of 202,658. - For the 2602 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3029, the opening price was 3037, the highest price was 3043, the lowest price was 2965, the closing price was 2970, down 59 or 1.95%, with a trading volume of 56,431 and an open interest of 123,191, an increase of 5,926. - For the 2512 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 2992, the opening price was 2970, the highest price was 2981, the lowest price was 2927, the closing price was 2930, down 62 or 2.07%, with a trading volume of 73,622 and an open interest of 50,827, a decrease of 6,510. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term low - level fluctuations are expected. Low spot prices may persist. Opportunities for long positions in far - month contracts can be considered on dips, but there may be fluctuations in the near term. A reverse spread between near - and far - month contracts is advisable. [8] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, down 0.66% month - on - month from 1.368 billion at the end of September 2025, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but up 5.59% year - on - year compared with 1.287 billion at the end of October 2024. [9] - **Replenishment**: In October 2025, the monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly down from 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly down from 44.83 million in the same period of 2024. The total replenishment in the past four months (July - October 2025) was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period of 2024. [9] 3. Data Overview - **Culling Volume**: As of November 13, 2025, the national culling volumes in the previous three weeks were 20.53 million, 19.81 million, and 19.47 million respectively, showing a downward trend recently. [17] - **Culling Age**: As of November 13, 2025, the average culling age was 493 days, unchanged from last week and 6 days earlier than last month. [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the role of Guoxin Futures in supporting rural revitalization through innovative financial tools, particularly the "insurance + futures" model, which provides risk management and stability for agricultural producers [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Tool Innovation - Guoxin Futures addresses the challenges of agricultural production by continuously innovating financial tools to create a risk "safety net" for specialty industries [2]. - In Anhui's Huo Qiu County, a chicken egg options project was launched, providing price protection for over 400 tons of eggs, successfully mitigating market volatility risks and stabilizing farmer incomes [2]. - The peanut industry in Xiangfu District received systematic financial support through the "insurance + futures" project, covering nearly 100,000 acres and establishing a dual risk defense system [2]. - As of mid-2025, Guoxin Futures has conducted over 150 "insurance + futures" projects, benefiting more than 80,000 farming households across various crops [2]. Group 2: Industry Deepening and Support - Guoxin Futures enhances rural industry vitality through comprehensive service across the entire industry chain, exemplified by its collaboration with Guangtan Rubber [3]. - The company continues to promote the "leading enterprise + off-market options" model to improve the quality and efficiency of the rubber industry [3]. - In the consumer support area, Guoxin Futures has maintained its "purchase instead of support" tradition, expanding sales channels for local agricultural products [3]. Group 3: Financial Knowledge Empowerment - Guoxin Futures has launched the "Blue Ocean Launch" financial knowledge classroom, educating farmers on price insurance and futures to stabilize their incomes [4]. - The training sessions have reached over a thousand participants through a combination of online and on-site teaching methods [4]. - The "project + training + signing" model has become a hallmark of Guoxin Futures' financial empowerment efforts, facilitating knowledge transfer and practical benefits for farmers [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Fats and Oils - Palm oil is expected to maintain a low - level volatile or weakly rebound trend, with Dalian palm oil futures fluctuating between 8600 - 8700 yuan. There is pressure to weaken again. Port inventory may rise due to reduced demand in cold weather [1]. - For soybean oil, the 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is up, but the ending stocks are down. CBOT soybean oil is supported. In China, the spot price is slightly up, and the inventory is stable [1]. 2.2 Live Pigs - The spot price is weak, and the market is in a weak - range oscillation. The mid - term outlook is not optimistic. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held [3]. 2.3 Meal Products - The USDA report lacks positive factors for US soybeans. China's soybean meal supply is loose, and the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [8]. 2.4 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance, and the price rebounds, but the upside is limited due to supply pressure. Attention should be paid to selling and purchasing rhythms and storage [10]. 2.5 Sugar - India's sugar export may face difficulties in the short term. Brazil's supply is loose. The raw sugar price will oscillate around 14 cents/pound. The sugar market will maintain an oscillation this week [14]. 2.6 Cotton - The 11 - month USDA report is bearish for cotton. In China, new cotton supply is high, and demand is weak, but some downstream support exists. The short - term cotton price will be under pressure [15]. 2.7 Eggs - The egg market supply is loose, and demand is weak in the short term. The price decline has not widened, and the market will be weakly oscillating. Near - month short positions can be closed gradually [17][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8590 yuan, unchanged from November 14. The basis is 308 yuan, down 7.78%. The 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is up to 322.76 billion pounds [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 8590 yuan, up 20 yuan. The basis is - 54 yuan, down 103.70%. The inventory may rise [1]. 3.2 Live Pigs - **Futures**: The main contract basis is - 45 yuan, down 120%. The price of live pigs 2605 is 12140 yuan, down 0.45% [3]. - **Spot**: The price in Henan is 11650 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan. The slaughter volume is up 0.05% [3]. 3.3 Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan, down 0.65%. The basis is - 3 yuan, up 90.63% [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2420 yuan, down 3.2%. The basis is - 29 yuan, down 390% [8]. 3.4 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 in Jinzhou Port is 2182 yuan, down 0.14%. The basis is 48 yuan, up 92% [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 is 2489 yuan, down 0.64%. The basis is 21 yuan, up 320% [10]. 3.5 Sugar - **Futures**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5458 yuan, down 0.22%. The 1 - 5 spread is 60 yuan, down 9.09% [14]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning is 5600 yuan, down 1.06%. The national sugar production is up 12.03% [14]. 3.6 Cotton - **Futures**: The price of cotton 2605 is 13455 yuan, down 0.11%. The 5 - 1 spread is 10 yuan, down 50% [15]. - **Spot**: The price of Xinjiang 3128B is 14579 yuan, down 0.1%. The commercial inventory is up 70.4% [15]. 3.7 Eggs - **Futures**: The price of egg 12 contract is 2987 yuan/500KG, down 1.52%. The 12 - 01 spread is - 242 yuan, down 19.8% [17]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area is 2.96 yuan/jin, down 0.82%. The laying hen inventory is high [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology growth remaining the market's main line. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - Regarding treasury bonds, the economic data in October showed weakness in both supply and demand, and the overall situation declined compared to the third quarter. The social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6][7]. - For precious metals, the upward drivers of gold and silver prices remain unchanged. The Fed is about to enter the balance - sheet easing cycle. It is recommended to go long on silver after the price pullback stabilizes [8][9]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly; aluminum prices may strengthen further after consolidation; zinc and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have limited downside space; tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly; and the price trends of other non - ferrous metals also vary according to their fundamentals [11][13][15][16][18][20][21]. - In the black building materials sector, steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term but may recover in the future. Iron ore prices will operate within an oscillating range. Glass and soda ash prices are expected to remain weak, and manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices are recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment [33][36][38][40][43]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended for short - term trading; crude oil is recommended for short - term observation; methanol, urea, and other products have different price trends based on their supply - demand and cost situations [56][58][59]. - In the agricultural products sector, for pigs, the strategy is to first conduct reverse arbitrage and then short after a rebound. For eggs, the short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term is to short after a rebound. The prices of other agricultural products also vary according to their fundamentals [80][82]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Important articles by General Secretary Xi Jinping were published in Qiushi Journal; the State Council executive meeting was held to promote consumption; many airlines announced free ticket refunds and exchanges; and the price of lithium carbonate may break through 150,000 yuan/ton if demand growth exceeds 30% next year [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology growth remaining the main line. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On Friday, the prices of treasury bond futures contracts had different changes. The central bank will conduct a 6 - month 800 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and China's industrial added value in October increased by 4.9% year - on - year [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic data in October showed weakness in both supply and demand, and the social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices fell. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion cycle is in the early stage, and gold and silver prices are not expected to peak [8]. - **Strategy View**: The upward drivers of gold and silver prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to go long on silver after the price pullback stabilizes [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices declined and then rebounded. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic spot premiums increased [11]. - **Strategy View**: Copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 85,800 - 87,400 yuan/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic and overseas aluminum inventories had different changes, and the market trading was not good [14]. - **Strategy View**: Aluminum prices may strengthen further after consolidation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,650 - 22,000 yuan/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore inventory increased slightly, and LME zinc inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy View**: Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined. Lead ore inventory increased slightly, and domestic lead inventory increased [17]. - **Strategy View**: Lead prices are expected to slow down their rise and enter an oscillating state [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fell sharply. Refined nickel inventory increased, and nickel - iron prices decreased [19]. - **Strategy View**: Nickel prices may have limited downside space, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. Tin ore supply was tight, and demand in emerging fields provided support [21]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices declined. The price of lithium concentrate increased, and the inventory of lithium carbonate was at a low level [23]. - **Strategy View**: The market contradiction is concentrated on the demand side. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in lithium - battery materials and battery production schedules [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell. The basis was positive, and the inventory was stable [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell. The market supply was in excess, and the inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy View**: Stainless steel prices are expected to continue to decline [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. The trading volume decreased, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices had different changes. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [32]. - **Strategy View**: Steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term but may recover in the future [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices were unchanged. The overseas shipment volume decreased, and the demand increased slightly [34][36]. - **Strategy View**: Iron ore prices will operate within an oscillating range, with the lower limit at 750 - 760 yuan/ton [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices fell, and soda ash prices also fell. The inventory of glass increased, and the inventory of soda ash decreased slightly [37][39]. - **Strategy View**: Glass prices are expected to be weak, and soda ash prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [38][40]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices declined slightly. The prices were in an oscillating range [41][42]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and beware of overseas sentiment fluctuations [43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell, and polysilicon prices also fell. The supply of industrial silicon decreased, and the demand for polysilicon decreased [45][48]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand and oscillate weakly. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant news [47][49]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated and declined. The opening rate of tire factories was neutral, and the inventory increased slightly [51][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended for short - term trading and partial hedging [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined product prices rose. The inventory of refined products had different changes [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended for short - term observation and to wait for the verification of OPEC's export behavior [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fell. The port inventory was high, and the supply pressure was still there [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices fell slightly. The market was affected by news, and the inventory decreased [61]. - **Strategy View**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and build a bottom [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices were unchanged, and styrene prices rose. The supply and demand of both had different changes [62]. - **Strategy View**: Styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The supply was in excess, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [65]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased slightly. The inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies [67]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices were unchanged. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was expected to be weak. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by PXN in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fell. The load was high, and the inventory was expected to increase slightly [70]. - **Strategy View**: It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium term [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The upstream opening rate increased, and the inventory had different changes [73]. - **Strategy View**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices fell. The supply pressure was high, and the demand increased slightly [75]. - **Strategy View**: PP prices are expected to be affected by cost changes in the first quarter of 2026 [76]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices were expected to be stable in the south and decline in the north [78][79]. - **Strategy View**: First conduct reverse arbitrage and then short after a rebound [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable. The inventory was high, and the demand was recovering [81]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term is to short after a rebound [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices fell. The global soybean supply decreased slightly, and the domestic soybean and meal inventory was large [83]. - **Strategy View**: Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil export decreased, and production had different changes. Domestic oil prices oscillated [85][86]. - **Strategy View**: Observe the production trend of palm oil and adjust the strategy accordingly [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices fell. Brazilian sugar production increased, and India allowed sugar exports [88]. - **Strategy View**: Wait for a rebound and then short [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillated. The downstream demand was weak, and the domestic production was high [90][91]. - **Strategy View**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile situation, with different sectors having different trends and influencing factors. For example, the A - share market is affected by macro - data and shows an upward - then - downward trend; the steel and ore market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term; and the energy market is influenced by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships [10][12][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The 22nd issue of Qiushi magazine published President Xi Jinping's important article. The National Bureau of Statistics released October economic data, showing a slowdown in multiple indicators. The prices of commercial housing in 70 cities declined. The Chinese government reminded citizens to avoid traveling to Japan. The State Council studied "two - important" construction and consumption - promotion policies. The central bank will conduct a large - scale reverse - repurchase operation. The US will release multiple economic data. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will list platinum and palladium futures. The market supervision department issued an anti - monopoly compliance guide. The national child - rearing subsidy system has been implemented, and the lithium - battery industry chain has seen a price increase. Trump adjusted the scope of "reciprocal tariffs" [4][5][6][7][8]. Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market rose and then fell, affected by macro - data. The decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment may be due to technical factors, export slowdown, anti - involution, and the real - estate downturn [10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market's expectation of monetary easing has declined, but interest - rate cuts cannot be ruled out. Maintain the view of increased easing in Q4. The money market is affected by the approaching tax period, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is weakly effective [11]. Black - **Steel and Ore**: In the short - term, expect a volatile consolidation; in the medium - to - long - term, maintain a bearish view when prices are high. The supply - demand relationship is weak, with high inventory and low profit for steel mills. The price is affected by low - price transactions and may remain weak [12][13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices may continue to decline in the short - term. In the medium - term, the mine's production is restricted by policies, and the demand for steel is weak in the off - season, but the strong thermal - coal price provides some support [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: In the long - term, the oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate, so maintain a bearish view when prices are high. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The prices are fluctuating narrowly, and the cost of manganese - silicon is relatively stable [15]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is recommended to wait and see. The soda - ash industry has production fluctuations and cost increases, while the glass industry's strong sales have not continued, and the market is concerned about demand and inventory [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term fundamentals are good, but the demand may weaken in Q1 next year, limiting price increases. After the demand weakens, the price may correct, and it is advisable to buy on dips [18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has no prominent supply - demand contradictions and can be bought on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate, influenced by policy expectations and supply - demand relationships [19]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. The price is undervalued compared to the spot, which limits the decline. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [23][24]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is expected to be bearish. Before the large - scale arrival of new sugar, it is advisable to wait and see. In the long - term, there is still supply pressure [25][27]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price may oscillate. The in - production laying - hen inventory is high, but it is expected to decline. It is recommended to short the near - term contracts [28]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner. The inventory is low, and the price is high. The future consumption trend will be the focus [30]. - **Corn**: The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still accumulating. It is necessary to pay attention to the new - grain sales progress and the release of policy wheat [31]. - **Red Dates**: Temporarily wait and see. The weak spot market in the sales area has a negative impact on the new - date ordering price [32]. - **Pigs**: The supply pressure continues, and the demand is average. The spot price is likely to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short the near - term contracts [33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile, but the long - term downward trend of oversupply remains unchanged. The price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand forecasts [35]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the oil price, with a supply - abundant and demand - weak structure. The short - term focus is on supply concerns after the sanctions on Russia [36]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and it is expected to be weakly volatile. The current price provides some support for producers [36][37]. - **Rubber**: Pay attention to the strategy of expanding the ru - nr spread. The price may oscillate in the short - term, with supply in the peak season and support at the bottom [37]. - **Methanol**: The near - term contracts are expected to be weakly volatile, and the far - term contracts can be moderately long after the rebound drive appears. The supply pressure is large, and the inventory is high [38][39]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait for long - position opportunities after a significant decline. Pay attention to the cost support. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is weak [40]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [41]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It is expected to continue to be strong in the short - term, driven by improved supply - demand and market sentiment [42]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Although there are short - term positive factors, it is not advisable to chase the rise. Consider shorting at high prices in the medium - to - long - term [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Observe the digestion of old warehouse receipts and spot transactions [45]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the price is under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in the off - season [46]. - **Urea**: Wait and see, subject to specific policies. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is oscillating [47]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term price will oscillate within a range. Be cautious when going long and consider selling call options after the rebound [48].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Agricultural products [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [1] - Research team: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] Group 2: Fats and Oils Core Viewpoint - The trends of the three major fats and oils are differentiated. Palm oil lacks driving forces and continues to fluctuate weakly. Rapeseed oil is policy - dominated, and in the short - term, with inventory depletion and tight spot supplies, it is mainly a long - position configuration. Soybean oil fluctuates in the range of 8000 - 8400, with a bottom but limited upside due to high inventory [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market review**: Palm oil is the weakest among the three major fats and oils, showing a fluctuating and weak pattern. Soybean oil futures rebounded slightly, and rapeseed oil is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [8][9] - **Operation suggestions**: For palm oil, wait for clearer guidance; for rapeseed oil, take a long - position configuration; for soybean oil, expect it to fluctuate in the 8000 - 8400 range [9] 2. Core Points - **Domestic spot changes**: As of November 14, 2025, the prices of East China first - grade soybean oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and South China 24 - degree palm oil all increased weekly, and their basis also increased [10] - **Domestic inventory of the three major fats and oils**: As of the end of the 45th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils decreased weekly, with soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showing inventory declines [22] - **Domestic supply of fats and oils and oilseeds**: The soybean opening rate of major domestic soybean oil plants decreased compared to last week, and the rapeseed opening rate of major domestic oil plants was almost at a standstill. The import volume of soybeans and rapeseed in 2025 showed different trends [25][29] - **Palm oil dynamics**: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production, exports, and inventory increased, while imports decreased. From November 1 - 10, production decreased. India's palm oil imports in October decreased [32][33] - **CFTC positions**: Relevant position charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given [44] Group 3: Live Pigs Core Viewpoint - On the supply side, in the long - term, pig slaughter may increase slightly until the first half of next year; in the short - term, the planned slaughter volume in November decreased month - on - month, but the daily average remained the same. On the demand side, secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and terminal consumption may gradually improve. Overall, the spot market will fluctuate, and the futures market will be weak in the medium - to - long - term [95][96] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Spot market**: The average national live pig slaughter price fluctuated weakly this week, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.55%. The expected cost of pig fattening showed different trends, and the breeding profit decreased [48] - **Futures market**: As of Thursday this week, the main live pig futures contract LH2601 fluctuated and declined, with a closing price of 11860 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67% [49] 2. Fundamental Overview - **Long - term supply: Breeding sow inventory**: The price of binary sows remained stable this week. As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Different data sources have different estimations of future pig slaughter [54][58] - **Medium - term supply: Piglet inventory**: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets increased this week. As of October, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and future pig slaughter is expected to increase [71] - **Short - term supply: Large - pig inventory, hoarding, and secondary fattening**: As of October, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises increased month - on - month. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased, and the proportion of secondary fattening sales decreased. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pens decreased [73][74] - **Current supply: Commercial pig slaughter volume and slaughter weight**: In October 2025, the actual pig sales volume exceeded the planned volume. The planned sales volume in November decreased month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of pigs increased this week [81][82] - **Import supply: Pork imports**: In September 2025, China's pork imports remained the same month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative import volume decreased year - on - year [84] - **Demand**: Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the slaughter enterprise's opening rate increased slightly this week. The national large - scale live pig slaughter volume from January to September 2025 increased year - on - year [90][91] 3. Future Outlook - **Viewpoint**: The spot market will fluctuate, and the futures market will be weak in the medium - to - long - term [95][96] - **Strategy**: Futures investors should wait and see, and breeding enterprises should hold hedging short positions [98] - **Important variables**: Swine fever epidemic, hoarding, and secondary fattening consensus expectations [99] Group 4: Corn Core Viewpoint - On the supply side, new - crop corn has increased production, and the supply is sufficient. Substitute products have reduced price advantages, and future imports may remain low. On the demand side, feed demand is good, but the inventory of feed enterprises is low, and the procurement of deep - processing enterprises is active, but inventory increase is difficult. Overall, the spot price will fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price will be affected by multiple factors [141] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Spot market**: This week, the corn price was strong. In the Northeast, North Port traders raised prices to stimulate arrivals; in North China, farmers were reluctant to sell, and deep - processing enterprises raised prices to purchase; in the sales area, prices increased due to cost factors [100] - **Futures market**: As of November 13, the main Dalian futures contract 2601 closed at 2186 yuan/ton, up 1.5% from last Thursday [101] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Corn supply**: This week, the grain sales progress slowed down, and the overall progress was faster than the same period last year. The inventory of northern and southern ports increased [105][108] - **Domestic substitutes**: This week, the wheat price fluctuated weakly. The corn price was 272 yuan/ton lower than the wheat price [109] - **Import substitute grains**: In September 2025, China's import volume of grains increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of different grains showed different trends. The import profit of Brazilian corn was high, but imports may remain low in the future [110][120] - **Feed demand**: In September 2025, the national industrial feed production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The proportion of corn in feed decreased. Pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly, and feed production is expected to continue to increase [121][129] - **Deep - processing demand**: Recently, the corn starch industry's production profit was good, and the opening rate increased. The processing profit of starch enterprises in different regions changed differently, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased [131][133] - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, China's corn planting area, yield, and consumption are expected to increase, and the inventory is expected to increase [137] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: The spot price will fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price will be affected by multiple factors [141] - **Strategy**: Spot enterprises should replenish inventory appropriately, and futures investors should hold long positions and set stop - losses [142] - **Important variables**: Policies on purchasing, selling, and storing, tariff policies, geopolitical situations, and weather [143] Group 5: Soybean Meal Core Viewpoint - The external market of soybean meal is close to a short - term high, and the domestic market is cautiously bullish in the short - term. The risk lies in the possibility that China may only purchase a small amount of US soybeans in the future [146][147] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot market**: As of November 14, the coastal soybean meal price increased slightly [145] - **Futures market**: The external market of US soybeans was strong, and the domestic soybean meal rose due to cost - push factors. In the short - term, it should be treated with caution and bullishness [146][147] 2. Core Points - **Soybean planting**: In the USDA September report, the new - crop US soybean planting and harvest area decreased year - on - year, and the yield and inventory were adjusted. The Brazilian and Argentine soybean yields are expected to increase. The US soybean harvest is almost complete, and the Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting progress is different [148][150] - **US soybean exports**: As of September 25, the US soybean export volume decreased year - on - year. After the Sino - US agreement, there are uncertainties about future Chinese purchases [155] - **Domestic soybean imports and crushing**: As of November 13, the crushing profit of imported soybeans was negative. The soybean crushing volume and opening rate decreased. The soybean import volume in October decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The port soybean inventory will be high in the short - term and then decrease [166][168] - **Soybean meal trading and inventory**: As of November 7, the domestic soybean meal inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. The trading was not active in October, and the terminal demand is expected to be good [172] - **Basis and inter - month spreads**: As of November 13, the soybean meal 01 contract basis decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread was stable. The 01 contract is relatively strong, and the 1 - 5 spread may increase [175] - **Domestic registered warehouse receipts**: As of November 13, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were at a relatively high level in the same period of history [180] Group 6: Eggs Core Viewpoint - The spot market will adjust narrowly at a low level next week. The futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term. Long positions in the far - month contracts can be considered at low prices, and a reverse spread between the near - and far - month contracts is appropriate [183] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot market**: The spot market weakened this week, and it is expected to adjust narrowly at a low level next week [183] - **Futures market**: The futures market declined this week, with the near - month contracts falling more. In the future, the far - month contracts may have opportunities [183] 2. Data Summary - **Inventory and replenishment**: As of the end of October 2025, the inventory of laying hens decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The egg - chick replenishment momentum slowed down, and the inventory structure changed [184][186] - **Cost, income, and breeding profit**: As of November 13, the egg price decreased, the feed cost remained stable, the egg - chick price decreased, the breeding profit was at a historically low level but improved compared to last week [189]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Industry: Eggs [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The egg market is currently in a phase of adjustment. The recent decline in egg prices is mainly due to the end of the previous price increase, with short - sellers re - entering the market, especially in the near - month contracts. In the future, the decline is expected to be limited due to improved storage conditions and slightly better存栏量. In the long run, the decline may accelerate the elimination of laying hens and keep the replenishment rate low, presenting potential long - position opportunities in the more distant months. In the short - term, the market will likely experience bottom - level fluctuations with near - month contracts being relatively weak [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The egg futures market showed a downward trend. The 2601 contract closed at 3265, down 62 points or 1.86%; the 2602 contract closed at 3045, down 27 points or 0.88%; the 2512 contract closed at 3040, down 52 points or 1.68%. The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas was 3.31 yuan/jin, also down 0.01 yuan/jin [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short - term, the market is expected to experience bottom - level fluctuations with near - month contracts being relatively weak. In the long - term, as the decline may accelerate the elimination of laying hens and keep the replenishment rate low, long - position opportunities in the more distant months can be gradually considered [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but a year - on - year increase of 5.59% compared to October 2024 [9] - **Replenishment**: In October 2025, the monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period of 2024. The total replenishment from July to October 2025 was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period of 2024 [9] - **Elimination Volume**: From the latest data, in the three weeks up to November 6, 2025, the national elimination volume of laying hens was 20.02 million, 20.53 million, and 19.81 million respectively, showing a fluctuating trend. The average elimination age was 493 days as of November 6, 2025, 1 day earlier than the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month, indicating an accelerated elimination process [9][14] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg production area average prices, egg 12 - contract basis, and egg 12 - 02 spread, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [13][10][11]