周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 供需双弱，硅产业链压力不减 [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 市场传言西北某大厂高成本地区产能后期有减产计划，具体减 产时间和减产体量仍有待观察。南方丰水期即将来临，但受价 格低迷、成本倒挂等因素影响，硅厂生产积极性大幅降低，预 计丰水期实际开工率显著低于往年同期。需求端仍无起色，对 工业硅采购不积极，多晶硅厂家近期对工业硅粉单的采购价格 在 9400-9700 元/吨。后续关注供给端边际变化。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 本周硅料现货成交有限，预计大量成交将待五一之后。4 月多 晶硅排产预计在 10 万吨左右。5 月市场传言龙头企业西南基地 复产推迟及龙二企业或有减产计划，关注后续进展。我们下修 5 月多晶硅排产至 10 万吨左右。根据 SMM，截至 4 月 20 日， 中国多晶硅厂库存 25.1 万吨，环比+0.7 万吨。下游原材料库存 约 11 万吨，下降至 1 个月水平左右，并在硅片厂中呈不均匀 分布，部分企业无太多囤货有刚需采购需求，部分企业硅料库 存仍较为充足、策略仍以消化在手库存为主。需求转弱，多晶 硅现货压力不减。截至 4 月 25 日，注册仓单量仍只有 10 手 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests to temporarily observe the main contract 2506 of industrial silicon [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand situation of industrial silicon shows low supply, reduced demand, and high - level inventory. The supply side has uncertainty as the production cuts in the northwest are counterbalanced by new capacity in the southwest, and production is expected to recover with the approaching of the wet season. The demand side remains weak in the short - term due to the slump in the photovoltaic, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8930 yuan/ton, with a change of 130 yuan; the position of the main contract is 182,521 lots, with an increase of 121,524 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 13,792 lots, with a decrease of 4007 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 69,820 lots, with a decrease of 74 lots; the spread between the May - September contracts is - 120 yuan, with an increase of 10 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 10,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 820 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 130 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 11,800 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 500 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, with an increase of 46,400 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 612,000 tons, unchanged; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2211.36 tons, with an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, with a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 40,200 tons, with a decrease of 300 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 16.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.58 US dollars/kg, with a decrease of 0.35 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 17,485.81 tons, with a decrease of 632.98 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 60.43%, with a decrease of 1.06%; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.655 million tons, with an increase of 103,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, with a decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - GCL Technology announced in January 2025 that the cash cost of granular silicon in Q4 2024 had dropped to 28.17 yuan/kg, setting a new industry low. Premier Li Qiang emphasized promoting consumption, expanding domestic demand, and strengthening the domestic cycle during a research trip in Beijing, and the real estate market still has development space [2].

文字早评 2025/04/21 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.11%，创指+0.27%，科创 50-0.81%，北证 50+1.97%，上证 50-0.08%，沪深 300+0.01%， 中证 500+0.07%，中证 1000-0.13%，中证 2000-0.20%，万得微盘-0.02%。两市合计成交 9147 亿，较上 一日-848 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、国常会：研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干措施，要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平 稳健康发展。 2、白宫将设工作组紧急处理对中国加征关税危机，特朗普称 1 个月内会与中国达成协议。 3、特朗普又喊话降息，白宫顾问承认在研究解雇鲍威尔。 资金面：融资额-87.08 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+2.60bp 至 1.6600%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.10bp 至 3.0824%，十年期国债利率-0.27bp 至 1.6490%，信用利差+0.17bp 至 143bp；美国 10 年期利率+5.00bp 至 4.34%，中美利差-5.27bp 至-269bp。 市盈率：沪深 300:12.26，中证 5 ...

工业硅产业日报 2025-04-16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 9020 | -150 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 133777 | -12645 -386 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -22006 | 4821 广期所仓单(日,手) | 69806 | | | | 5-9月合约价差 | -125 | 10 | | | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9950 | -50 421#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 10750 | -50 | | | Si主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 930 | 100 DMC现货价(日,元/吨) | 13480 | -460 | | 上游情况 | 硅石平均价(日,元/吨) | 410 | 0 石油焦平均价(日,元/吨) | 1930 | 0 | | | 精煤平均价(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 木片平均价(日,元/吨) | 540 | 0 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are difficult to change, and the rush to install photovoltaic systems is receding. The supply reduction of industrial silicon has been implemented, but the demand remains sluggish. For polysilicon, the core issue is the high inventory, and the spot price may face pressure again with the resumption of production on the supply side and the weakening of demand [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2505 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 365 yuan/ton to 9455 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygenated 553 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 10100 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9350 yuan/ton. The PS2506 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1815 yuan/ton to 41835 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N-type re-feeding material remained unchanged at 41700 yuan/ton [10] 3.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamentals Remain Unchanged, Photovoltaic Rush to Install Recedes - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price of industrial silicon fluctuated downward this week. Xinjiang reduced production by 2 industrial silicon furnaces, with a weekly output of 72400 tons, a decrease of 0.34%. The social inventory of SMM industrial silicon increased by 0.4 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.65 million tons. After the production reduction of large factories in Xinjiang, other large factories did not continue to reduce production. The industrial silicon in the southwest region is slowly resuming work, and some new production capacities are planned to be put into operation this month. The powder list price of polysilicon factories this week is between 10400 - 10500 yuan/ton. Organic silicon continued to reduce production, and the price of aluminum alloy decreased due to US tariffs, maintaining only rigid demand for industrial silicon. Exports may decline in the short term due to relevant policies [12] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of organic silicon dropped significantly this week. Many enterprises maintained reduced production, with an overall operating rate of about 63.3%, a decrease of 3.28 percentage points. The weekly output was 41900 tons, a decrease of 3.23%, and the inventory was 53700 tons, an increase of 6.97%. After the price increase, the downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited, and the procurement intensity weakened. Although monomer factories continued to operate at reduced capacity, there was no shortage of supply, and the factory inventory increased instead of decreasing [12][13] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated downward this week. The price of silicon materials remained stable temporarily due to fewer signed orders, but the manufacturers' recent quotations have started to decline. The planned production of polysilicon in April is expected to be about 1 million tons, and it is expected to increase to about 1.1 million tons in May. It is estimated that polysilicon can continue to reduce inventory by 10000 tons in May. However, the core problem of polysilicon is still the high inventory, with the industry - wide inventory possibly around 4.5 million tons. From April to May, silicon wafer manufacturers mainly aim to digest their existing inventory, with low procurement enthusiasm. With the resumption of production on the supply side and the weakening of demand, the spot price may face pressure again. As of April 11, the number of registered warehouse receipts was only 10 lots [3][13] - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of silicon wafers started to decline this week. Affected by the earthquake, the price of silicon wafers was raised, but the terminal demand declined earlier than expected, resulting in low acceptance of the new price. The mainstream transaction prices of M10, G12R, and G12 models may gradually fall to 1.25, 1.50, and 1.55 yuan/watt. The planned production of silicon wafers in April was adjusted down to 60 - 62GW, and the silicon wafer sector continued to reduce inventory. As of April 60 (presumably a typo, might be April 6), the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 20.9GW, an increase of 1.4GW. In May, considering that the silicon wafer sector has been reducing inventory for 8 consecutive months and the current inventory has dropped to a half - month level, the planned production of silicon wafers in May is also expected to be above 60GW. After the rush - to - install period, the market demand may weaken rapidly, and the price of silicon wafers may continue to decline [14] - **Battery Cells**: The price of battery cells remained basically stable this week. The price of M10 and G12 model battery cells remained at 0.31 yuan/watt, and the price of G12R model battery cells dropped slightly to 0.33 yuan/watt. The decline in component prices led to low acceptance of high - priced battery cells. The planned production of domestic battery cells in April was 61 - 63GW, continuing the inventory reduction trend. As of April 7, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 2.58GW, an increase of 1.3GW. Looking forward, after the end of the rush - to - install period, the price of battery cells may decline with the weakening of demand from late April [14] - **Components**: The price of components dropped slightly this week. As the rush - to - install tide gradually receded, the price of distributed components started to decline, falling to the level of 0.75 - 0.76 yuan/watt, and high - price transactions shrank rapidly. The price of centralized components was basically stable. On April 9, China Power Construction terminated the 5.1GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement project for 2025. It is expected that the project will be re - tendered, but the procurement price and price level may be lower than before. The planned production of components in April was 66 - 68GW. Considering the delivery of the remaining orders of distributed components and the placement of centralized component orders, the planned production of components in May is expected to be 60 - 62GW. After the rush - to - install period, the price of components is expected to continue to decline [15] 3.3 Investment Recommendations - **Industrial Silicon**: The production reduction of large factories in Xinjiang may lead to inventory reduction, but without policy support, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is weak. The upper limit of the disk price depends on the hedging point. The lower limit mainly considers two points: 1) cost and production reduction; 2) selling the new standard 421 as 99 - grade silicon. Considering that the spot price may continue to fall towards the cost line of large factories and the premium of 800 yuan/ton for the new contract, in a worse - case scenario, the disk price may fall to about 9000 yuan/ton. Therefore, the disk price may fluctuate between 9000 - 10500 yuan/ton. For unilateral trading, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the disk price rebounds. For arbitrage, it is recommended to pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity of Si2511 - Si2512 [4][17] - **Polysilicon**: After the rush - to - install period, with the resumption of production on the supply side and the weakening of demand, the spot price may face pressure again. However, in April, polysilicon started warehouse receipt registration, and the disk will also trade the contradiction of warehouse receipts. Considering that only five enterprises meet the delivery brand requirements and the production of deliverable products from March to May is limited, silicon material factories will be more cautious about hedging, and a too - low disk price may lead to a shortage of warehouse receipts. Therefore, for unilateral trading, it is recommended to pay attention to both the opportunity to go long on PS2506 at low prices and the opportunity to go short on PS2511 at high prices. For arbitrage, the long - short position of PS2506 - PS2511 can continue to be held [4][17] 3.4 Hot News - China Power Construction terminated the 5.1GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement project for 2025 due to factors such as the adjustment of new energy electricity price policies [15][18] - On April 9, the 100000 - ton hydropower silicon energy - saving and environmental - protection project of Yunnan Energy Investment Group Yongchang Silicon Industry was put into operation, with an expected annual industrial output value of over 1.5 billion yuan, tax payments of over 120 million yuan, and the creation of more than 300 jobs [18] - The 1.6 million - ton organic silicon project of Qiya Group started construction on April 1, 2025, and is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2026. It is an important plan for Qiya Group to improve the full silicon - based industrial chain [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff issue continues to disrupt the market, causing significant fluctuations in risk assets. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the US has led to a rapid increase in market risk appetite, but the escalation of China-US tariffs is beneficial for gold. - The US dollar index has weakened due to the suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries by Trump, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term. - The stock index futures market has been boosted by China's tariff countermeasures against the US, but the subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - The commodity market is generally under pressure. The prices of palm oil, coal, iron ore, and some energy - chemical products are affected by various factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand relationships, and tariff policies. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Event: Trump approved a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on over 75 countries, during which the reciprocal tariffs will be reduced to 10%. - Review: Gold prices soared by over 3%, once rising by over $100, setting a record for the largest single - day increase. The suspension of tariffs increased market risk appetite, but the escalation of China - US tariffs is beneficial for gold. Gold is a good tool to hedge against the decline in the US dollar's credit. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach in the short - term volatile market [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Event: Summers warned that the US is far from out of danger and has lost a lot of credibility. The Fed meeting minutes showed that the US economy faces risks. Trump suspended reciprocal tariffs on most countries. - Review: The suspension of tariffs led to a significant rebound in market risk appetite, causing the US dollar index to weaken. The reciprocal tariffs are in a temporary adjustment phase, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [15][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. The Fed meeting minutes showed that inflation is slightly high and economic uncertainty has increased. Trump suspended tariffs on some countries but raised tariffs on China to 125%. - Review: The China - US tariff negotiation is at a deadlock, and policy uncertainty remains high. The financial market is volatile, and the risk of a liquidity shock has not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish approach and avoid chasing high prices [20][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Event: The Chinese Premier held a symposium on the economic situation. China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. - Review: The A - share market rebounded, and market sentiment was boosted. However, subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - Investment advice: Adopt a risk - averse approach in the short term [23][24][26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Event: China released a white paper on China - US economic and trade relations. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 111 billion yuan. - Review: The main logic of the treasury bond market is clear. The probability of a short - term easing of trade conflicts is low, and the expectation of loose monetary policy is difficult to be falsified. The upward trend of treasury bonds is likely to continue. - Investment advice: Hold positions and wait for the implementation of loose policies, or add positions on dips [27][28][29]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Event: Indonesian palm oil industry and farmer groups urged the government to reduce export tariffs to 0% to offset the impact of US tariffs. - Review: The global market sentiment is low, and the price of palm oil has fallen. China's counter - tariffs on the US may be beneficial for far - month soybean oil. The possibility of Indonesia reducing palm oil export tariffs is low. - Investment advice: Consider closing previous short positions and pay attention to the MPOB report [30][31]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Event: As of the end of March, China's commercial cotton inventory decreased, and India's cotton planting area may increase. The CCI has purchased a large amount of cotton, and its sales volume is not high. - Review: The CCI's purchase and sales situation, as well as the trade war, may affect India's cotton production, consumption, and import estimates. The price of Zhengzhou cotton has fallen, but the decline may slow down. - Investment advice: The cotton price is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to macro - policies, planting, weather, and industry conditions in major producing countries [32][35][37]. 2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Event: China's coal demand is expected to increase slightly in 2025. - Review: The coal price has been relatively stable. The power plant's inventory is at a neutral level, and the price is expected to be supported in May but lacks elasticity. - Investment advice: The power plant may replenish coal inventory in May, but the price increase is limited [38]. 2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Event: JFE Steel in Japan plans to shut down a blast furnace, reducing its annual crude steel production capacity by about 4 million tons. - Review: The black metal market has continued to decline, but the short - term deterioration of fundamentals is not severe. Pay attention to the risk of liquidity. - Investment advice: Maintain a bearish approach and wait for a better opportunity to short after a rebound [39][40][41]. 2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Event: The coking coal market in East China has remained stable. Some coal mines in Shanxi have reduced production, and downstream coke enterprises have started to increase prices. - Review: The coking coal spot market has improved, but the futures market faces pressure. The coke spot market may continue to increase prices, but the medium - long - term supply is expected to be loose. - Investment advice: The spot market has stabilized, but the futures market faces pressure from subsequent demand and warehouse receipts [42][43]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Event: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased significantly, but inventory has only decreased slightly. - Review: High raw material prices and weak downstream demand have led to a decrease in the operating rate. The futures price difference between corn starch and corn is expected to remain stable. - Investment advice: The CS05 - C05 price difference is expected to remain around the normal processing fee of 380 yuan [44][45][47]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Event: The inventory at northern ports has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the price of corn in the production area is relatively firm. - Review: The outflow of corn from Northeast China has accelerated, and the weak basis has suppressed the futures price. The 07 contract is considered undervalued. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the 07 contract is undervalued and pay attention to whether the acceleration of inventory reduction in Northeast China can boost trader sentiment [48]. 2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Event: The retail sales of passenger cars in March increased significantly year - on - year. - Review: The steel price has rebounded, and market sentiment has improved. However, the demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils is declining slowly. - Investment advice: Adopt a cautious approach in the short term and hedge on the spot market when prices are high [49][50][51]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Event: The sales volume of three major listed pig enterprises increased in March, and the average selling price slightly increased. - Review: The short - term fluctuation of pig prices has increased, but it will eventually return to the fundamental situation. The spot price may face downward pressure. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [52][53][54]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Event: Yunnan Nengtou Group's Yongchang Silicon's 100,000 - ton hydropower silicon project was put into operation. Some production capacity in Xinjiang was reduced, and some new production capacity in the southwest is expected to be put into operation. - Review: The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the fundamental situation of industrial silicon is difficult to change. - Investment advice: The futures price may range from 9,000 to 10,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage opportunities [55][56][57]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Event: The LME lead spread was at a discount, and the price of refined lead decreased. - Review: The lead price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Although the medium - term outlook is bullish, macro risks have not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for buying opportunities on dips. Continue to hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage [58][59][60]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Event: The blockade of Glencore's Antapaccay copper mine in Peru was suspended. Codelco plans to significantly increase copper production this year. Indonesia will increase mining royalties. - Review: The short - term macro factors have a relatively uncertain impact on copper prices. The short - term supply and demand in China are strong, and the inventory is expected to decrease. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in Shanghai copper [61][62][64]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Event: The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened. - Review: The zinc price is mainly affected by macro factors. The market is cautious, and the export of zinc may be suppressed. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [65][66][67]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Event: An Australian company produced the first batch of lithium carbonate in Argentina. Argentina plans to increase lithium production by 75% in 2025. - Review: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are bearish, and the price may continue to decline in the long term. - Investment advice: Consider partial profit - taking on short positions in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [68][69][70]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Event: Indonesia will increase mining and coal royalties in the second week of April. - Review: The nickel price has slightly decreased, and the cost is expected to increase marginally. The market may digest negative sentiment. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips after the release of negative sentiment [71][72]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports to 84%. The US C3 inventory started to accumulate. - Review: The PG price has decreased, but it may strengthen due to the increase in tariffs and the recovery of crude oil prices. However, policy uncertainty should be noted. - Investment advice: The domestic market may experience a valuation - repair market, but reduce risk exposure and participate cautiously [73][74][75]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Event: The US EIA crude oil inventory increased. Trump announced the suspension of reciprocal tariffs. - Review: The oil price has rebounded, but there is still a risk of decline due to the uncertainty of the tariff issue and the OPEC+ production policy. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short term and still has a downward risk [76]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - Event: The tariff war has escalated, and the demand for PTA is uncertain. - Review: The PTA price has decreased, and the demand for polyester is affected by tariffs. The impact on PTA pricing is relatively lagged. - Investment advice: The PTA price will mainly follow the crude oil price in the short term and is expected to be weakly volatile [77][78]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Event: The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. - Review: The styrene price has reached a new low and then rebounded. The downstream inventory may accumulate, and the production profit may not be sustainable. - Investment advice: The eb - bz spread may expand in the short term and contract in the long term [78][79]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - Event: The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the supply was stable while the demand was weak. - Review: The caustic soda price is expected to decline, and the market is mainly affected by macro factors in the short term. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [80][82][83]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - Event: The price of imported wood pulp decreased. - Review: The pulp price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [84]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - Event: The spot price of PVC powder decreased. - Review: The PVC price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [85]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Event: The export price of bottle chips decreased, and a polyester bottle chip device in East China restarted. - Review: The bottle chip price has decreased, and the processing fee has been passively repaired, but it is difficult to break away from the low - level oscillation range. - Investment advice: The bottle chip price will follow the cost side and be weakly volatile in the short term [86][88][89]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Event: The price of soda ash in the East China market was adjusted slightly. - Review: The soda ash price is in a low - level oscillation, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is general. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling approach on rebounds in the medium term [90]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Event: The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. - Review: The float glass price is mainly affected by demand. Although there may be an improvement in the second - quarter demand, the upward space is limited. - Investment advice: The float glass price will be in a low - level range in the short term. Pay attention to buying opportunities on large dips [91][92][93].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current supply - demand contradiction of industrial silicon is difficult to improve. Short - term tariff increases affect downstream demand, making it more difficult for prices to rebound. In the short term, silicon prices will continue to weaken [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Conditions - The spot price of industrial silicon was mainly weak and stable this week. The actual transaction price was pushed down due to more shipments by spot - futures traders. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 10100 - 10300 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon was 10800 - 11200 yuan/ton. On Friday, the closing price of the main contract si2505 of industrial silicon futures was 9820, +0.20%, with the position decreasing by 12882 hands to 179,600 hands and the trading volume reaching 6.71 billion yuan [1]. Supply Side - Factories were eager to sell at discounted prices. The lowest transaction price of 99 - silicon from northern manufacturers reached 9200 yuan/ton. The previous production - cut plan of large manufacturers in the eastern production area has been implemented. Currently, there are 21 operating submerged arc furnaces in the east and 45 in the west, and the west has no plan to increase production. Other silicon factories have no joint production - cut phenomenon. This production - cut plan lasts for more than 2 months, which may relieve inventory pressure in the long run. Recently, the tender price of downstream powder orders was lower than expected, and the profit of powder mills was meager [1]. Demand Side - The organic silicon DMC market held firm this week, with the mainstream transaction price at 14000 - 14500 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Some monomer plants adopted production - cut and production - control strategies, reducing the operating load of monomer equipment as planned. The decrease in supply supported the price, and the market sentiment and trading atmosphere improved. The price of polysilicon remained stable. Silicon material enterprises planned to add production lines to produce deliverable goods, and the registration of silicon material warehouse receipts was open, with only 10 successful registrations on Friday. The price of re -投料 was 37 - 39 yuan/kg, dense material 35 - 38 yuan/kg, cauliflower material 32 - 34 yuan/kg, and N - type material 41 - 43 yuan/kg. The price of aluminum alloy ingots was stable, but the market demand was weak, the trading atmosphere was light, and the procurement enthusiasm of downstream die - casting enterprises was low [1]. Inventory - On April 3, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 70034 hands, an increase of 243 hands this week, and the warehouse receipt inventory remained at a high level [1].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-04-07 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 农产品 | ★★★★ | 农产品：此次美国对全球加征对等关税是历史性的大事件;加征幅度超预期;各国大概率会不同 程度反制，不确定性极高。由于这一次是对全球加征关税，因此不能完全用 2018 年的思路 去看待。农产品方面,美国大豆、玉米和棉花出口占全球出口份额比较高，大豆 27%、玉米 33%、棉花 26%，美国出口下降预期已经推高巴西现货升水，对销区的成本上升的影响较大， 且大概率是持续性的影响。大豆方面，虽然榨利较高，但是下游仍有养殖利润，承接力度较 强，囤库意愿较高。风险:全球高关税带来的经济衰退预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 短线或继续大跌，长线关注超跌反弹机会 观点分享： 外盘油价较上周五累计暴跌近 14%，内盘跌停概率较大。短期市场极度恐慌，其中 Brent 或继续交易衰退考验 55 美元/桶，中长期关注企稳筑底后的多配机会。理由：第一， 短期看，市场交易主要大国、经济体之间关税互征引发的通缩，恐慌情绪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market price of industrial silicon is weakly stable, with downstream buyers mainly pressing for lower prices, and there is insufficient upward momentum in the short term [2]. - From the perspective of the futures market, trading volume has decreased. Be vigilant about trading enterprises repurchasing for hedging near the cost price [2]. - Supply is expected to decrease later, demand will be maintained as needed, and inventory will remain at a high level. Today, industrial silicon has seen a volume - shrinking decline [2]. - It is recommended to operate the industrial silicon main contract 2505 in the oscillation range of 9700 - 10100, with stop - loss prices at 9600 and 10200, and pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; the position of the main contract is 220162 lots, a decrease of 9139 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 38360 lots, a decrease of 657 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 69767 lots, a decrease of 24 lots; the price difference between the May - September contracts is - 75 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 10200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 11050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 415 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 14400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 770 yuan; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12250 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 289350 tons, a decrease of 16450 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 60.4 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52919.65 tons, a decrease of 12197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 4.06 tons, a decrease of 0.09 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 21000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 16.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 5.01 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.03 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 17485.81 tons, a decrease of 632.98 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 61.73%, a decrease of 1.36%; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 155.2 tons, an increase of 10.2 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Tongwei Co., Ltd. announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Yongxiang Co., Ltd., plans to introduce strategic investors to increase capital by no more than 10 billion yuan. After the capital increase, the total shareholding ratio of strategic investors will not exceed 27.03% [2]. - A 7.9 - magnitude earthquake occurred in Myanmar, mainly affecting Yunnan. As it is a major industrial silicon production area, but the current operating rate of industrial silicon is low, the impact is basically small. It depends on the subsequent impact on transportation facilities [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Financial Futures and Options**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term (intraday) - range - bound; Medium - term - bullish [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term (intraday) - short - term bonds narrow - range bound, long - term bonds poised for rebound; Medium - term - bullish [2] - **Commodity Futures and Options**: - **Copper**: Short - term (intraday) - range between 79000 - 81000; Medium - term - range between 66000 - 90000 [4] - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term (intraday) - low - level operation in the range of 9700 - 9900; Medium - term - low - level operation in the range of 9600 - 11000 [8] - **Polysilicon**: Short - term (intraday) - range between 43000 - 44000; Medium - term - low - level operation in the range of 43000 - 47000 [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term (intraday) - low - level oscillation in the range of 73500 - 74500; Medium - term - fluctuate around production cost in the range of 65000 - 85000 [12] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is structurally recovering, and capital market system optimization promotes long - term capital inflow. Overseas, Trump's tariff policy expansion and high inflation in the US add uncertainties. The equity market will return to fundamentals, with short - term focus on positive performance expectations and medium - term continuation of domestic technology innovation theme [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Central bank's net capital withdrawal, policy focus on long - term bond yields, and weak economic fundamentals support long - term bond prices [2][3]. - **Copper**: Global copper concentrate supply - demand tightness, US tariff - induced demand front - loading, and reduced scrap copper exports boost copper prices, but high prices may suppress demand [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: High inventory, declining production, and weak demand lead to low - level operation [8][9]. - **Polysilicon**: High inventory, declining production, and weak demand result in low - level operation [10][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: High production capacity, high inventory, and low - level spot prices are negative for lithium carbonate prices [13]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures**: - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long IH2504 and short IC2504 hedge portfolio, hold HO2504 - C - 2750 out - of - the - money call options [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Reference Strategy**: Increase long positions in T2506 and TL2506 on dips [2] Commodity Futures and Options - **Copper**: - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish - biased trading approach; copper - using enterprises can buy for hedging on dips [4] - **Supply**: Codelco expects 2025 production to reach 137 - 140 million tons. Many companies have production changes in 2024 and plans for 2025 [5] - **Demand**: Q1 2025 domestic power grid data is strong, but some demand indicators show fluctuations [6][7] - **Inventory**: LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories have decreased [7] - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2505 - C - 12000 and hold [8] - **Supply**: February 2025 production decreased by 16.04% year - on - year [8] - **Demand**: February 2025 polysilicon production decreased by 44.72% year - on - year [9] - **Inventory**: As of March 21, 2025, social inventory is high [9] - **Polysilicon**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PS2505 - C - 47000 and hold [10] - **Supply**: February 2025 production decreased by 44.72% year - on - year [10] - **Demand**: February 2025 silicon wafer production decreased by 15.94% year - on - year [11] - **Inventory**: As of March 23, 2025, social inventory is high [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell LC2505 - C - 90000 and hold [13] - **Supply**: February 2025 production capacity reached a 4 - year high, and production increased year - on - year [13] - **Inventory**: As of February 28, 2025, total inventory is at a high level [13]