Economic Overview - In July, the US economy showed resilience, with market risk aversion decreasing and the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September fluctuating [1] - Emerging markets continued to outperform developed markets, while domestic "anti-involution" policies and the Yajiang hydropower project led to a surge in commodity futures prices [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3600 points, reaching a new high for the year, with the Wind All A Index rising by 4.75% for the month [1][3] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index recorded a 2.91% gain in July, with southbound funds net buying approximately 124 billion yuan [1] - The bond market remained stable in early July but adjusted later in the month due to the impact of "anti-involution" policies and market sentiment fluctuations [1] - By the end of July, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose by nearly 6 basis points to 1.70%, indicating a steepening yield curve [1] Commodity Market - The commodity market experienced overall fluctuations, with precious metals showing high volatility; international gold prices fell by 0.72% to $3288.26 per ounce [2] - Oil prices showed a strong upward trend, with Brent crude oil rising by 7.73% to $71.78 per barrel [2] - The black metal sector rebounded significantly, with rebar prices increasing by 6.94% to 3205 yuan per ton [2] Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP for the first half of the year was 66,053.6 billion yuan, growing by 5.3% year-on-year [3][4] - Industrial production accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4% in the first half of the year, driven by strong export resilience and domestic demand policies [3] - Retail sales growth slowed to 5.0% year-on-year, with June's growth at 4.8%, below market expectations [4] Policy Insights - The Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized the need for stable and flexible macroeconomic policies to support employment and market expectations [7][8] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and implementing proactive fiscal policies alongside moderate monetary easing [7] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and improving consumption was reiterated, with an emphasis on high-quality development [7] Investment Strategies - The market showed a significant increase in trading volume, with daily average turnover rising to approximately 1.6 trillion yuan [11] - The A-share financing balance reached a five-year high of 1.98 trillion yuan, indicating increased investor confidence [11] - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with expectations of a potential "risk-on" environment driven by favorable monetary policies and economic data [12][18]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July has increased expectations for interest rate cuts in September, leading to a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in each of the next four meetings, according to JPMorgan's updated forecast [1] - The establishment of the Xinjiang Railway Company with a registered capital of 95 billion yuan is anticipated to boost demand for cement by 40 million tons, benefiting various sectors including construction and machinery [2] Group 2 - The lithium carbonate supply side is facing a significant impact as the Jiangxi Jianxia Mine has confirmed a production halt with no short-term plans for resumption [3][6] - The production halt is expected to last over three months, leading to a monthly supply shortage of over 10,000 tons during the peak consumption season [7] - The annual surplus of lithium is projected to decrease from 171,000 tons to approximately 140,000 tons if the production halt extends into 2026, potentially leading to a tight balance in the lithium market [7] Group 3 - Smoore International has released a performance forecast for H1 2025, expecting a year-on-year adjusted net profit change of approximately -1.4% to +24.6% [4] - The company is actively diversifying its business, expanding into the fields of aerosol beauty and medical applications, with a focus on 2025 as a key year for its second growth curve [5] - Smoore's HNB product GloHilo has received positive feedback in Japan, and the company is leveraging its extensive patent portfolio to support its business transformation [4][5]

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market was 1.70 trillion CNY, a decrease of over 110 billion CNY compared to the previous week[8] - The market style returned to a "small-cap + dividend" barbell structure, with the Wande Micro Cap Index rising by 3.76% this week[11] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.11% during the week, while the Wande All A Index rose by 1.94%[11] - The small-cap stocks showed relative strength, with the small-cap growth index up by 2.59%[14] Investor Sentiment - The margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion CNY, reaching a ten-year high, indicating increased investor confidence[22] - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit up was 73, while the number hitting the limit down was only 2, reflecting a positive market sentiment[22] Sector Trends - Strong sectors included robotics, military, and infrastructure, with significant events such as the opening of the World Robot Conference and a 95 billion CNY investment by the National Railway Group in a new railway company[38] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and technological self-reliance in the current market environment[42] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected domestic economic recovery, uncertainties in overseas interest rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions that could impact market stability[45]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous effect of the domestic demand expansion policy is leading to positive changes in consumer prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing stability and slight increases in certain areas [1][2]. CPI Analysis - In July, the CPI remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, reversing a previous decline of 0.1% [1]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [5]. - Food prices saw a significant decline, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 7.6% and pork prices decreasing by 9.5%, contributing to the overall CPI stability [2][5]. Price Contributions - Service and industrial consumer goods prices were the main drivers of the CPI increase, with service prices rising by 0.6% month-on-month and industrial prices increasing by 0.5% [3][4]. - Specific price increases in the travel sector, such as airfares and accommodation, significantly impacted the CPI, contributing approximately 0.21 percentage points to the month-on-month increase [4]. PPI Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, primarily due to seasonal factors affecting manufacturing and construction [6]. - Certain industries, such as non-metallic mineral products and coal mining, experienced price declines, but the overall rate of decline has narrowed, indicating potential stabilization [7][8]. - Expectations for August suggest a possible improvement in PPI, driven by a low base effect and ongoing domestic demand recovery [8].

Group 1 - The infrastructure ETF (159619) rose over 1.6% on August 8, indicating positive market sentiment towards infrastructure investments [1] - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the gradual implementation of special bonds and policies from the Central Urban Work Conference is expected to enhance fiscal policy support and improve financing conditions, leading to a noticeable impact on investment and physical volume [1] - There is an expectation for increased domestic demand, with infrastructure investment and key regional construction likely to receive policy boosts, suggesting that overall infrastructure investment is poised for steady growth throughout the year [1] Group 2 - The infrastructure ETF (159619) tracks the CSI Infrastructure Index, which is compiled by the China Securities Index Company and selects listed companies in the infrastructure construction sector from the A-share market [1] - The index constituents include representative enterprises from construction, building materials, and engineering machinery sectors, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the infrastructure industry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Infrastructure ETF Initiated Linkage C (016837) and Guotai CSI Infrastructure ETF Initiated Linkage A (016836) for investment opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The ETF market on August 8 showed mixed performance, with the construction materials ETF from E Fund (159787) leading gains at 2.18% [2] - The photovoltaic ETF (560980) and the infrastructure ETF (516950) both increased by 2.05% [2] - The software index ETF (560360) experienced the largest decline, falling by 3.07%, followed closely by the innovation-driven ETF (562570) which dropped 3.02% [2] - The computer ETF from Southern (159586) decreased by 2.87% [2]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight pullback with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.12%, Shenzhen Component down 0.26%, and ChiNext down 0.38% as of August 8, 2025, with a total trading volume of 171.02 billion [1] ETF Performance - The top-performing ETF was the Building Materials ETF (159787) with a gain of 2.18%, followed by the Photovoltaic ETF (260980) and Infrastructure ETF (216950), both up 2.05% [1] - The worst-performing ETFs included the Software Index ETF (260360) down 3.07% and the Innovation ETF (562570) down 3.02% [3] Policy Insights - Recent anti-involution policies are expected to enhance market competition and improve the valuation of low-valued manufacturing sectors, particularly in the photovoltaic industry [2] - The focus is on sectors with low stock prices and those benefiting from policy expectations, such as float glass and certain consumer building materials [2] Trading Activity - The Short-term Bond ETF (511360) had the highest trading volume at 25.82 billion, followed by the Silver Day Benefit ETF (211880) at 17.91 billion [4] - The Benchmark Government Bond ETF (511100) led in turnover rate at 283.49%, indicating high trading activity [5] Upcoming ETF Launches - Five new ETFs are set to begin fundraising on August 11, 2025, including the Growth ETF (159559) and the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (159286) [6] - The upcoming ETFs will track various indices focusing on high-growth companies and innovative drug sectors [7]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market has seen a rapid increase in prices for various industrial products, driven by policy initiatives and infrastructure projects, although there are increasing divergences among private equity firms regarding the outlook for cyclical stocks [1][2]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new plan to stabilize growth in ten key industries, focusing on structural adjustments, supply optimization, and phasing out outdated capacity [1]. - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has sparked optimism in the infrastructure sector [1]. Commodity Price Trends - There is a clear divergence in the long-term price trends of commodities, with some analysts noting that the current environment differs from the commodity boom of 2016 due to a lack of short-term demand resonance [2]. - The current demand cycle for real estate and traditional infrastructure is expected to be weaker than in previous cycles, impacting overall commodity prices [2]. Market Sentiment and Valuation - The recent strong rebound in A-share cyclical stocks is attributed to favorable policies and the fact that these stocks are currently at historically low valuations, with institutions holding fewer shares [4]. - The economic recovery is expected to boost demand for bulk commodities, supported by government measures aimed at optimizing supply-demand relationships [4]. Investment Strategies - Private equity firms are focusing on structural opportunities, particularly in sectors with limited new supply, such as non-ferrous metals, which are expected to benefit from global market competitiveness [6]. - There is a strategy of combining short-term speculation with long-term investments, particularly in industry leaders that may perform well post-merger and restructuring [7]. Sector-Specific Focus - Investment interest is particularly directed towards upstream resource sectors, especially industrial products with limited new supply, such as copper and aluminum, which are expected to benefit from overseas demand expansion [7]. - Some private equity firms have begun to build positions in sectors like new energy, coal, and building materials, which have seen significant price adjustments in recent years [7].

Group 1 - In July, the issuance of new special bonds reached 616.936 billion yuan, an increase of 89.842 billion yuan from the previous month, marking a new high for the year [1] - In the first half of the year, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds amounted to 2.16 trillion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 45%, with a noticeable acceleration in the pace of issuance [3] - The acceleration of new special bond issuance is crucial for providing sufficient funding for major project construction, with over 1.6 trillion yuan available for use from August to December [4] Group 2 - The new special bond issuance will significantly support infrastructure investment, with funds primarily directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, and public services [5] - The timely availability of special bond funds helps alleviate the funding pressure on infrastructure projects, playing an important role in stabilizing investment and growth [5] - The acceleration of new special bond issuance is expected to provide strong support for the rebound of infrastructure investment growth in the second half of the year, benefiting related industries such as steel, cement, and construction machinery [5]

Group 1: Inflation and Policy Response - The core focus of July's policy is on "anti-involution," with multiple departments addressing the phenomenon of market "involution" [2][11] - The expected inflation rates for July are projected at -3.1% for PPI and 0% for CPI, indicating weak price performance despite rising commodity prices [2][11] - The increase in commodity prices is driven by expectations of supply contraction, but excess supply in downstream sectors limits the transmission of price increases from upstream to downstream [2][24] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Industrial production remains resilient, with July's industrial value added expected to be around 6.4%, despite a decline in new orders [4][61] - The PMI production index indicates that production is still expanding, with notable increases in sectors like general equipment and black metal rolling [4][55] - The supply situation is characterized by a divergence, where production is better than demand, contrary to market expectations of significant supply contraction [4][48] Group 3: Demand Structure - Demand is showing signs of differentiation, with weak goods demand but stronger service demand, leading to a projected slight decline in actual GDP to 4.9% for July [6][73] - Export performance is expected to exceed expectations in July due to the residual effects of "export grabbing," but there are concerns about a potential decline in exports in September [6][73] - The consumer market is experiencing a potential decline in goods consumption due to a "subsidy gap" in the "old-for-new" program, while service consumption is expected to improve due to increased travel activity [8][89] Group 4: Investment Trends - Investment performance is mixed, with real estate and manufacturing investments likely to decline, while infrastructure and service sector investments may see improvement [8][102] - The acceleration of special bond issuance is expected to support infrastructure investment, with asphalt construction rates showing an upward trend [8][102] - The manufacturing sector faces downward pressure due to the nearing end of equipment renewal demand, while real estate investment is likely to continue weakening [8][102] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The main logic of economic operation in July revolves around "price increases," but the sustainability of these increases is relatively weak due to supply-side production increases and weak demand [9][112] - The overall economic indicators suggest a nominal GDP growth of 3.9% and an actual GDP growth of 4.9% for July, reflecting the current economic conditions [9][112]