- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results. The content primarily focuses on market performance, style indices, valuation, and other financial metrics without detailing any quantitative models or factors[1][2][3]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated positively, with expectations of significant growth in capital expenditures from major companies like Amazon and Google, indicating a bullish outlook for the sector [1][26]. Core Insights - Amazon raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $200 billion, a more than 50% increase from $131 billion in 2025, driven by strong demand signals in AI hardware and cloud services [1]. - Google's parent company, Alphabet, expects its 2026 capital expenditure to be between $175 billion and $185 billion, nearly double its 2025 spending, reflecting robust growth in its cloud business [1]. - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to lead to a significant increase in ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) numbers from major tech companies, with a projected explosive growth in 2026-2027 [1][4]. - The semiconductor and PCB (Printed Circuit Board) sectors are anticipated to benefit from the strong demand for AI, with many companies in these areas experiencing high order volumes and expansion plans [4][26]. Summary by Sections Section 1: AI and Cloud Infrastructure - Amazon's AWS cloud division saw a 24% year-over-year growth, with a backlog of $244 billion, indicating strong enterprise investment in AI and cloud services [1]. - Google's cloud revenue reached $17.7 billion in Q4, a 48% increase year-over-year, driven by strong demand for enterprise-level AI products [1]. Section 2: Semiconductor and PCB Industry - The PCB industry is maintaining high demand due to the growth in automotive and industrial applications, with expectations of price increases for copper-clad laminates [6]. - AI-driven demand is expected to boost PCB prices and volumes, with companies actively expanding production to meet this demand [4][26]. Section 3: Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics sector is seeing a continuous expansion of AI applications, particularly in the Apple supply chain, with innovations in foldable devices and AI glasses [5]. - The demand for AI-enabled devices is expected to drive significant growth in the market, with various manufacturers exploring new product categories [5]. Section 4: Semiconductor Equipment and Materials - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a robust upward trend, with significant capital expenditures expected to support the growth of advanced manufacturing processes [23][25]. - The materials sector is also poised for improvement, with a focus on domestic production capabilities in response to international supply chain challenges [25][34]. Section 5: Company-Specific Insights - Companies like North Huachuang and Zhongwei are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for semiconductor equipment and materials, with strong growth prospects in their respective markets [28][30]. - Three Ring Group is focusing on high-capacity MLCC (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor) products, which are expected to see increased demand due to AI applications [33].

本文字数：2511，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 魏中原 2026.02. 08 2月首周，A股市场风格显著切换，科技板块遭遇深度调整。当周，电子、通信行业领跌两市，其中 电 子 行 业 总 市 值 跌 去 约 8900 亿 元 。 龙 头 股 更 是 放 量 杀 跌 ， 重 创 板 块 情 绪 ， 中 际 旭 创 （ 300308.SZ ） 、 新 易 盛 （ 300502.SZ ） 周 跌 幅 均 超 13% ， 寒 武 纪 （ 688256.SH ） 单 周 重 挫 17.63%，股价创2025年8月末以来新低。 与之形成鲜明对比的是，白酒、地产等防御性板块逆势走强，贵州茅台（600519.SH）周内涨 8.14%，保利发展（600048.SH）创下年内股价新高。 市场人士分析，临近春节长假，资金避险情绪升温，叠加科技股前期涨幅透支估值，投资者正从高波 动赛道转向业绩确定性更强的领域，反映出市场对估值合理性的审慎重估与对稳健收益的追求。 科技赛道全线降温，资金放量出逃 多重因素共振导致科技回调 本轮科技股的深度回调并非偶然，而是多重因素共同作用的结果。从时间节点、外部环境到内在估 值，科技板块 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The most significant changes in market sentiment this week were observed in the oil and petrochemical, and food and beverage sectors, with the oil and petrochemical sector showing a positive change rate of 58.0% [26] - The overall market valuation for major indices is high, with the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 having rolling 5-year historical percentiles of 87%, 99%, and 98% respectively [36] - The report highlights that industries with valuations above the historical 80% percentile include power equipment, electronics, light industry manufacturing, and others, while food and beverage, comprehensive, and non-bank financials are below the 20% historical percentile [37] Market Sentiment Monitoring - The weekly heat change for major indices showed that the CSI 300 increased by 3.34%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 5.98% [15] - The top five industries with positive heat change rates were oil and petrochemical, food and beverage, coal, non-ferrous metals, and textile and apparel [26] - The top five secondary industries with the highest positive heat change rates included jewelry, planting, liquor II, lighting equipment II, and oil service engineering [26] Market Valuation Monitoring - The report indicates that the current valuation of the CSI 300 is at a historical high, with a percentile of 87% [36] - Industries such as wind power equipment, aerospace equipment, and semiconductor are currently above the 80% historical percentile [40] Event Tracking - A total of 13 stock incentive events were tracked this week, with notable companies including Good Home and Blue Universe [41] - There were 37 significant shareholder changes, with 32 reductions and 5 increases [44] - 13 private placement events were reported, including companies like Guoxuan High-Tech and Yiwang Technology [46] Analyst Coverage - This week, analysts initiated coverage on 21 stocks, including companies like Juran Smart Home and Tianrun Industrial [47] - Two stocks had their ratings upgraded, namely New Dairy and Wancheng Group [49] - The report lists the top 20 stocks with the most institutional research, highlighting companies such as Yingtang Smart Control and Zhongji Xuchuang [48]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant style switch in the first week of February, with the technology sector undergoing a deep adjustment while defensive sectors like liquor and real estate showed resilience [1][4]. Group 1: Technology Sector Performance - The technology sector faced a comprehensive pullback, with the electronic industry market capitalization dropping by approximately 890 billion yuan, and leading stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng seeing weekly declines exceeding 13% [1][2]. - The electronic industry recorded a trading volume of 313.9 billion yuan, marking a new high for the year, while the industry index fell by 5.22% and the communication sector by 6.94% [2][3]. - The ChiNext 50 index, representing the technology sector, experienced its largest weekly decline since November 2025, with a drop of 5.76% [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The market's risk appetite for technology stocks has notably decreased, with many stocks retreating 20% to 30% from their recent highs, indicating a significant sell-off [3][4]. - The upcoming Spring Festival led to increased risk aversion among investors, prompting them to shift from high-volatility sectors to those with stronger earnings certainty [1][4]. - High valuations in the technology sector, with the electronic industry's price-to-earnings ratio at 69.76, have created substantial internal adjustment pressure [4][5]. Group 3: Factors Influencing the Adjustment - Multiple factors contributed to the technology sector's deep pullback, including seasonal trading patterns, high valuations prompting profit-taking, and increased market volatility due to external macroeconomic conditions [4][5]. - The anticipation of rising interest rates in the U.S. has negatively impacted technology stock valuations, as indicated by market reactions to Federal Reserve signals [5][6]. - The shift of funds from technology stocks to defensive sectors like liquor and real estate suggests a phase of market style transition, with investors seeking stability amid uncertainty [6].

策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略周报】 风格之辩——策略周聚焦 ❖ 调整或已到位，把握配置区间。 市场三大关注点：行业轮动渐近尾声，风险偏好抑制明显，春节前市场进入存 量博弈。经过短期快速的调整，当前机构普遍关注三大方向，具体来看：1、 春季躁动以来的行业轮动或接近尾声；2、市场风险偏好受到明显抑制；3、春 节前或将进入存量博弈。短期看市场情绪难有大幅提升，结构上轮动可能出现 最后一波加速，关注高股息的稳定红利品种，以及有业绩支撑的确定性板块。 我们在 26/2/3《调整或已到位，把握配置区间》指出，因外部突发事件产生的 风险偏好冲击或已到位。历史上由微观流动性引发的牛市中回撤通常呈现进二 退一。从投交情绪看，当前上证 4000 点左右的市场温度已经接近 25/11 的 3800 点，2/2 跌停公司 130 家，超去年 11/21 的 107 家，创近半年新低；杠杆资金 过去 5 个交易日净流出 582 亿元，超过 25/11 高点的 400 亿元。本轮 ETF 和 杠杆资金流出，以及贵金属价格的大幅波动，更类似微观流动性和突发事件引 发的风险偏好抑制，此类回撤往往在短时间内快速完成下跌，不必过分担 ...

Group 1 - The overall A-share pre-announcement rate has improved, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [1][7] - As of February 3, 2026, approximately 3,000 out of 5,478 A-share companies have disclosed their 2025 annual performance forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 54.0% and a pre-announcement rate of 37.0%, up from 33.7% in 2024 [1][7] - In the 2025 annual performance forecasts, there are 623 companies expecting profit increases and 378 companies expecting profit decreases [1][7] Group 2 - Large-cap stocks are expected to show better profitability compared to small-cap stocks, with the ChiNext board having a higher pre-announcement rate [2][8] - The maximum profit change for major indices in 2025 is projected to be 55.2% for CSI 300, 82.8% for SSE 50, 54.7% for CSI 500, and 50.8% for CSI 1000 [2][8] - The pre-announcement rates for major indices are 63.2% for CSI 300, 83.3% for SSE 50, 59.0% for CSI 500, and 49.4% for CSI 1000 [2][8] Group 3 - In terms of industry performance, the defense and electronics sectors have shown high disclosure and pre-announcement rates, indicating a strong potential for profitability improvement [3][9] - The highest disclosure rates among primary industries are coal (81%), real estate (78%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (74%), and computer industry (72%) [3][9] - The highest pre-announcement rates are in non-bank financials (96.2%), non-ferrous metals (67.6%), automotive (52.7%), and steel (50.0%) [3][9] Group 4 - The market outlook for 2026 suggests a gradual bull market, with signs of a profitability bottom emerging and ample liquidity supporting corporate earnings [4][10] - Valuation metrics are near historical averages, with a low interest rate environment providing upward valuation momentum [4][10] - There is significant potential for increased market capitalization in the Chinese stock market as long-term capital flows in [4][10] Group 5 - The industry allocation outlook favors technology and cyclical sectors, with a focus on U.S. stocks and commodities [5][11] - Key areas of interest include technology, domestic circulation, strategic security, and opening up to foreign markets, driven by policy directions from the next five-year plan [5][11] - The market is expected to experience a more comprehensive bull market driven by technological manufacturing and certain cyclical trends [5][11]

证券研究报告 A股策略周报: 节前博弈与长期布局如何权衡？ 证券分析师 陈 骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001 郝思婧 投资咨询资格编号：S1060521070001 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2026年2月8日 1 ※ 核心观点|节前博弈与长期布局如何权衡？ 1 近期动态|政策跟踪：国常会研究促进有效投资措施，虚拟货币监管政策收紧 资料来源：商务部，市场监管总局，中国政府网，央行，国家药监局，证监会，工信部，平安证券研究所 3 近一周重要政策梳理 日期 部门/会议 会议/文件/行动 主要内容 2026/2/2 商务部等九单位《2026"乐购新春"春节特别活动方 案》 涵盖"好吃""好住""好行""好游""好购""好玩"六方面内容。活动时间为2月15至23日春节9天假期， 旨在打造全域联动、全民乐享的春节消费盛宴。 2026/2/2 市场监管总局等 十部门 《低空经济标准体系建设指南（2025 年版）》 重点围绕低空航空器、低空基础设施、低空空中交通管理、安全监管和应用场景五大核心领域，建立"四维融 合"标准供给体系，要求到2027年体系基本建立。 2026/2/3 国务院 《中共中央 国务院 ...

- The report constructs a "total heat" indicator by aggregating the browsing, self-selection, and click counts of individual stocks, normalized as a percentage of the total market on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000, with a value range of [0,10000][7] - The "total heat" indicator is used as a proxy for "sentiment heat" to track the attention levels of broad-based indices, industries, and concepts[7] - The broad-based indices are divided into groups: CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and "others," with the total heat indicators of the constituent stocks summed up to obtain the heat of these indices[8] - A simple rotation strategy is constructed based on the weekly heat change rate, buying the broad-based index with the highest heat change rate MA2 at the end of each week, and staying out of the market if the "others" group has the highest change rate[12] - The rotation strategy based on the broad-based heat change rate MA2 has an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 5.2% in 2026[15] - The weekly heat change rate MA2 for the main broad-based indices shows that the CSI 300 had the highest increase of 3.34% compared to the previous week, while the CSI 500 had the largest decrease of 5.98%[15] - The heat change rate MA2 for the Shenwan first-level industries shows that the oil and petrochemical industry had the highest increase of 58.0% compared to the previous week, while the electronics industry had the largest decrease of -14.1%[26] - The heat change rate MA2 for the Shenwan second-level industries shows that the top five industries with the highest positive change rates are jewelry, planting, liquor II, lighting equipment II, and oil service engineering[26] - The heat change rate for concepts shows that the top five concepts with the highest positive change rates are Huawei Digital Energy, horse racing concept, duty-free shops, Huawei Euler, and pumped storage[27] - Two simple portfolios are constructed: one selects the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat from the top five concepts with the highest heat change rates each week, and the other selects the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat from the same concepts[30] - The historical performance of the portfolios shows that the bottom group can achieve an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%[32]

- The report discusses multiple quantitative models for market timing, including short-term, medium-term, and long-term models. These models are constructed based on price-volume, acceleration and trend, momentum, and limit-up/down perspectives. The report emphasizes the importance of combining signals from different models and periods to achieve a balanced strategy[9][11][12] - The short-term models include the "Volume Model" (neutral), "Feature Institutional Model" (neutral), "Feature Volume Model" (bearish), "Smart Algorithm CSI 300 Model" (bullish), and "Smart Algorithm CSI 500 Model" (bearish)[11][70] - Medium-term models include the "Limit-Up/Down Model" (neutral), "Up-Down Return Difference Model" (bullish for some broad-based indices), and "Calendar Effect Model" (bullish)[12][71] - The long-term model is the "Long-Term Momentum Model," which is neutral[72] - Comprehensive models such as the "A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model" and "A-Share Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model" are neutral[73] - For Hong Kong stocks, the medium-term models include the "Turnover-to-Volatility Model" (bearish), "Hang Seng Index Up-Down Return Difference Model" (neutral), and "Up-Down Return Similarity Model" (bullish)[13][74] - Backtesting results for the "Cup-and-Handle Pattern" show a weekly decline of -0.44%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.83%. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return of this pattern is 19.67%, exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.61%[43][44] - Backtesting results for the "Double-Bottom Pattern" show a weekly decline of -0.88%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.39%. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return of this pattern is 23.45%, exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.39%[43][50]