格隆汇1月25日｜空客集团首席执行官Guillaume Faury近日向员工发出警告，称由于去年受到美国保护 主义及全球贸易紧张局势带来的"重大"物流和财务损失，公司必须准备好应对令人不安的新地缘政治风 险。Faury在路透社获取的一封内部信函中表示："2026年伊始，以前所未有的多重危机和动荡的地缘政 治局势为特征。我们应当本着团结和自力更生的精神继续前行。"他指出："我们所处的工业环境困难重 重，大国之间的对抗更是加剧了这一局面。"福里在信中并未具体指明地缘政治事件，但这封信函是在 上周分发的，当时华盛顿与其盟友在格陵兰岛问题及北约角色上正处于分歧不断的背景之下。空客是欧 洲主要的防务供应商。他表示，多重贸易压力已经"在物流和财务上造成了重大的次生损害"。 ...

行 业 研 华福证券 国防军工 2026 年 01 月 25 日 国防军工 究 行 军工本周观点：重视产业核心——火箭+SpaceX 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 本周（1.19-1.23）申万军工指数（801740）上涨 4.37%，同期沪深 300 指数下降 0.62%，相对超额 4.99pct。 业 定 期 报 告 我们仍旧维系上周核心观点，投资端应持续聚焦产业核心，即加速推 进的产业速度+极快的业绩兑现，两者共同指向：S 链（SpaceX 产业链）+ 国内火箭产业链。 一）国内火箭产业链：产业加速+资本支持→加快追赶进度→超大规模 通胀火箭数量，建议关注：【飞沃科技】、【西部材料】、【银邦股份】、 【昊志机电】、【航天动力】； 1 月 22 日，中国星网计划在 2026 至 2030 年间部署 1.3 万颗低轨卫星， 内部已打算启动相关招标流程； 1 月 22 日，上交所官网显示，蓝箭航天空间科技股份有限公司科创板 IPO 审核状态变更为"已问询"； 1 月 22 日，中国证券报发文表示，商业航天产业趋势已来，太空光伏 或成下一个增长蓝海； 1 月 23 日，我国科研团队成功研制航天级封装单晶金刚石辐射 ...

节能降碳标准稳步提升，绿色能源投资持续增长。 2025年我国经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，全年经济总量迈上140万亿元新台阶，5%的增速在全球主要经济体中继续保持前 列； 新能源、新材料、航空航天、量子科技、生物制造、具身智能等新的经济增长点正在蓄势待发，新型储能装机规模已经突破1亿千瓦； ………… 2025年，面对国内外形势复杂深刻变化，全国上下迎难而上、奋力拼搏，经济社会发展主要目标顺利完成，经济运行稳中有进，发展 韧性进一步彰显，民生政策更有温度，交出一份高质量答卷。 展望20 26年，我国经济结构将持续向"优"、发展动能持续向"新"、整体发展态势持续向"好"，新质生产力稳步发展，消费与投资、科 技与产业、城乡与区域都将释放出巨大的发展潜能。 坚持智能化、绿色化、融合化方向，推动重点产业提质升级，大力培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业，深入开展"人工智能+"行动。去年实 施的"人工智能+"行动，为我国海量场景优势赋能增效，人工智能加速从数字世界走向物理世界，将带动高端制造、新兴消费、新业态 新模式爆发式增长；从2025年数据看，高技术制造业增加值占规模以上工业的比重已经超过17%。 新技术新产品新场景蔚然 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced volatility due to President Trump's comments, including a threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries supporting Greenland, leading to a market drop, which was later recovered after he announced the cancellation of the tariffs [1] - The Dow Jones fell by 0.53%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.35%, and the Nasdaq had a minimal decline of less than 0.1% [1] - PNC Financial Services Group's Chief Investment Strategist Yung-Yu Ma noted that the recent market movements resembled a brief but steep roller coaster, suggesting that while the most intense phase may be over, uncertainty remains [1] Economic Focus - The upcoming week will shift focus back to macroeconomic data, monetary policy, and corporate earnings, with the Federal Reserve's meeting expected to be a major highlight [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% during the announcement on Wednesday [1] - Investors are particularly interested in the number of dissenting votes and the accompanying statements to gauge the timing and pace of future rate cuts [1] Corporate Earnings - Approximately one-fifth of S&P 500 companies will report quarterly earnings next week, including major firms like Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla [2] - Franklin Templeton's Senior Market Strategist Chris Galipeau emphasized the importance of convincing earnings reports, stating that despite potential distractions from economic data or geopolitical events, corporate profits ultimately drive the market [4] AI Investment Insights - A key theme for the earnings season is whether companies are beginning to see real benefits from AI-related investments, as concerns about capital expenditures in data centers and infrastructure previously affected tech stocks [5] - PNC's Ma highlighted that the market needs to hear from large companies in the S&P 500 about their continued advancement in AI applications and strategies to build investor confidence that AI can create real value [5] Upcoming Economic Events - A summary of significant economic events includes various reports on durable goods orders, consumer confidence indices, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which will be closely monitored by investors [3][4]

Group 1 - The largest automobile transport ship in China, capable of carrying 10,800 vehicles, has been launched, featuring a dual-fuel LNG and oil propulsion system that meets international emission standards [2] - IDC forecasts that the global humanoid robot market will see explosive growth, with shipments expected to reach approximately 18,000 units by 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 508% [2] - China has successfully completed its first space metal 3D printing experiment using a rocket platform, marking a significant advancement in utilizing additive manufacturing technology in microgravity environments [2] Group 2 - Blue Origin plans to conduct the third launch of its New Glenn rocket at the end of February, which will carry a satellite for AST SpaceMobile into low Earth orbit instead of the previously planned lunar mission [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant sector rotation, particularly in the large aircraft sector, with major stocks like Changhe Aircraft Industries and others hitting the daily limit up, indicating a collective surge in the industry chain [1] Group 1: Market Movement - The large aircraft sector saw a collective rally with 13 leading stocks reaching their daily limit up, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in the sector [1] - The surge in the large aircraft sector is attributed to recent disclosures from the National Social Security Fund, which revealed new investments in seven leading companies within the large aircraft industry chain [3][4] Group 2: Key Companies and Investments - Chaojie Co., a core supplier of fasteners for the C919 aircraft, was highlighted as a new investment by the social security fund, becoming its sixth-largest shareholder with 670,000 shares [3] - Xice Testing, the only private entity with full-chain aerospace testing qualifications, saw the social security fund increase its holdings to 3.5 million shares, making it the fourth-largest shareholder [3] - Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC) Technology, a key player in the C919 engine supply chain, attracted new investments from major international banks like Goldman Sachs and UBS [3] - Hangya Technology, a leader in the domestic aviation precision forging blade sector, received new investments from the social security fund, becoming the eighth and ninth largest shareholders [4] - Hongdu Aviation, a core enterprise under AVIC, is the sole supplier of the C919's front and rear fuselage, with the social security fund acquiring 5 million shares [4] Group 3: Industry Developments - The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) completed the compliance flight test for the C919, providing a positive evaluation that exceeded market expectations and facilitating its entry into the EU market [6] - The CJ-1000A domestic engine has completed extensive testing, resolving previous capacity constraints and is expected to receive certification by the second quarter of 2026 [6] - Predictions indicate that C919's annual production capacity could rapidly increase to 50-70 aircraft by 2027, with plans to raise production from 30 to 60 aircraft in 2026 [7] Group 4: Market Potential - The existing orders for C919 exceed 1,000 aircraft, representing a market scale of 650 billion yuan, with the potential to drive over 2 trillion yuan in value across the supply chain [7] - The Yangtze River Delta region has become a hub for the large aircraft industry, housing over one-third of the national aircraft supply chain suppliers [7] - By 2043, China's civil aviation fleet is projected to reach 10,061 aircraft, making it the largest single aviation market globally, with an expected reception of 9,323 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years [8]

• 日本众议院正式解散，央行维持利率不变，承诺维护债市稳定 •全球金属市场狂欢， 黄金逼近5000美元，白银价格首次破百 • 公募基金业绩比较基准新规落地，薪酬与基准达标挂钩，设置一年过渡期 •控制67个账户操纵博士眼镜股价， 自然人余韩被证监会罚没超10亿元 • 周五A股放量上涨，资金涌入宽基ETF，沪深300系列ETF霸榜百亿成交 • TikTok官宣美国方案：成立数据安全合资公司，字节跳动保留算法知识产权并控股 1. 证监会正式发布公募基金业绩比较基准指引，中国基金业协会同步发布操作细则，自今年3月1日起施 行。新规重点从精准画像、全流程监管、与薪酬挂钩和信息透明等4个方面发力，直指"基准模糊""风格 漂移""基金盲盒"等行业痛点。新规明确了存量产品基准调整过渡期一年。 6. 三部门对外公示拟开展有奖发票试点城市名单，包括北京、上海、深圳、广州、南京、成都、重庆、 天津等50个城市入选。试点政策覆盖日常消费主要场景，如购物、外出就餐、旅游住宿、文体活动、生 活服务等。 7. 网信办等八部门发布《可能影响未成年人身心健康的网络信息分类办法》，将炫富拜金、非理性极 端"饭圈"、摆拍等突出问题纳入治理范围，对 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the resilience and growth of Henan's industrial sector, with significant increases in industrial value and investment despite economic pressures, showcasing a robust recovery and transformation [1] - Henan's industrial added value increased by 8.4% year-on-year, while industrial investment grew by 13.3%, ranking first and second among ten major industrial provinces in China [1] - The province is focusing on enhancing its industrial chains, with notable projects such as the first large-diameter bearing for the world's largest radio telescope and the launch of a rocket assembly base, indicating a strategic push in aerospace and new energy vehicles [1] Group 2 - The emergence of "zero-carbon factories" and the establishment of numerous intelligent and green factories reflect a shift towards sustainable and digital manufacturing practices in Henan [2] - The province has cultivated 16 top-tier intelligent factories, 323 provincial-level intelligent workshops, and 467 green factories, leading to an 8.3% reduction in energy consumption per unit of industrial added value [2] - Traditional industries are undergoing transformation, with significant advancements in high-tech manufacturing projected to grow by 16.6% by 2025, indicating a strong future for innovative sectors [2] Group 3 - A comprehensive support system for enterprises has been established, including a monitoring mechanism for 1,600 key companies and incentives for full-capacity production, demonstrating a commitment to fostering industrial growth [3] - The province has effectively addressed issues raised by 12,000 enterprises through initiatives aimed at enhancing government-business interactions, showcasing a proactive approach to industrial challenges [3] - By 2025, Henan's industrial sector is expected to emerge stronger, symbolizing the province's ambition to transition from an agricultural base to a manufacturing powerhouse [3]

Core Insights - Sichuan's GDP for 2025 is projected to reach 67,665.34 billion yuan, ranking second nationally, with an increment of 3,127.49 billion yuan, also second, and a real growth rate of 5.5%, ranking third [1] Group 1: Economic Positioning - Sichuan is positioned as the core of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle and a logistics hub for the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, leveraging its significant lithium reserves (60% of national total) and over 100 million kilowatts of hydropower capacity [3] - The completion of major projects like the Baihetan Hydropower Station is expected to increase clean electricity exports to over 120 billion kilowatt-hours, supporting both local green industries and eastern industrial upgrades [3] Group 2: Development Engines - The dual national strategies of "Western Development" and "Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle" are providing ongoing policy benefits, while the province's "5+1" modern industrial system is fostering significant project and innovation synergies [5] - By 2025, CATL's Yibin base is projected to achieve a battery production capacity of over 300 GWh, accounting for 38% of the national total, while Tongwei's photovoltaic base in Meishan is expected to reach a production efficiency of 26.8% [5] Group 3: Industrial Growth and Infrastructure - The digital economy in Sichuan is expected to exceed 1.6 trillion yuan by 2025, constituting 23.6% of GDP, with significant contributions from sectors like aerospace and nuclear power equipment [5] - The annual passenger throughput at Tianfu Airport is projected to surpass 60 million, and the volume of the Chengdu-Europe Express is expected to grow by 27%, enhancing logistics efficiency and boosting import-export trade by 15.7% [5] Group 4: Regional Competitiveness - Sichuan's GDP growth places it second nationally, with its nominal growth rate of 4.85% ranking fourth, indicating resilience beyond traditional coastal provinces [7] - The economic growth is characterized by a "full-region blooming" approach, with significant growth in cross-border e-commerce and natural gas chemical clusters, which helps mitigate the "provincial siphoning" effect [7] - The economic growth logic in Sichuan is shifting from "policy infusion" to "self-sustaining growth," with potential future focus areas including green hydrogen and low-altitude economy [7]

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Management Measures for National Emerging Industry Innovation Centers" signifies a strategic move by the government to enhance the integration of innovation, industry, and finance, thereby addressing the disconnect between the innovation chain and the funding chain [3]. Group 1: Management Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has published the "Management Measures," which outlines the establishment and operational guidelines for National Emerging Industry Innovation Centers [2]. - These innovation centers are positioned as platforms for technological innovation, aimed at nurturing future industries and enhancing new productive forces [1]. - The centers are expected to focus on major strategic industry development needs, led by industry leaders in collaboration with upstream and downstream partners, as well as academic institutions [1]. Group 2: Key Tasks and Funding Mechanisms - The "Management Measures" delineate eight primary tasks for the innovation centers, emphasizing the need to address national strategic demands and promote self-reliance in key technologies [1]. - A stable R&D investment mechanism is mandated to ensure continuous funding for technological innovation activities [2]. - The establishment of investment funds by the innovation centers is encouraged to support innovation, entrepreneurship, and the transformation of research outcomes into practical applications [2]. Group 3: Role of National Venture Capital Guidance Fund - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund is highlighted as a crucial element in supporting the establishment and operation of innovation centers, facilitating the incubation and transformation of technological achievements [2]. - Three regional funds have been established under this guidance fund, focusing on sectors such as integrated circuits, quantum technology, biomedicine, brain-computer interfaces, and aerospace [2].